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On 29 Sep 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
Same temperature range today as yesterday: 11 – 17˚C, again with a good SSE breeze. The morning started out fairly bright but by midday more clouds were moving in, mostly stratocumulus below the higher up altocumulus and cirrostratus, with detached rags of cloud racing by at a fair clip at low level. - A friend sent the following link http://www.corbettreport.com/the-ipcc-exposed-video/, I watched it and recommend it to anyone who is at all unsure why the whole AGW is such fraud. The name of Maurice Strong crops up, he who set the terms of reference for the IPCC, quite deliberately excluding anything that had NOT to do with humans, such as the sun, natural variability etc. Very soon the reading season (winter) will be upon us, when I will have time to beef up my knowledge on such matters.
On 29 Sep 2013, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
I was very surprised to see on the BBC and Sky news to here many positive comments on the Mail on Sundays article on the 17 years warming standstill, I am sure it will bring tears of joy to Piers as I think he was extremely annoyed about the IPCC report like most of us!
Yesterday had a very cold wind here first time I had to wear a coat all day. On Wednesday we harvested our forage maize, we had our second best yield around 18 ton /acre about 2.5 times better than last years disaster.
On 28 Sep 2013, Carl 30d Subscriber wrote:
IPCC spouting their usual rubbish again i see.They still stick to that 2c rise in world temperatures.The answer here is simple!!! when this mini ice age really begins to bite it will be the end of the IPCC and the left because NOBODY WILL EVER BELIEVE THEM AGAIN.And good ridance to them.On Piers September forecast as i speak Devon is getting trashed by thunderstorms and deluges.Once again TOP FORECASTING PIERS.From months out the R5 warning does it again.That is what i call REAL SCIENCE
On 28 Sep 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
Quite a bright start, although the sky was well covered with extensive stratocumulus, then the fog moved in, came and went most of the day in a mostly SSE breeze. Whenever there was no fog, the temp moved up and peaked at 17˚C from an early morning level of 11˚C. Leaves are now beginning to turn and lying along the roadside, different feel to the day. For anyone who is involved with growing things, autumn can be a time to start looking forward to the quiet of winter; summer is a great time, especially when it is good as it was for us this year, but it is forever associated in my mind with hard work, never quite carefree bliss. This is not a complaint, just a statement of fact. Still saw swallows this morning, always trying to memorise the moment when I saw the last one, not as easy as remembering the first one.
On 28 Sep 2013, Lorraine Lister wrote:
Nauseating spin on tonight's TV news from James Renwick "climate scientist" at NZ Victoira University warning us that frosts down to sea level and snow will soon be a thing of the past bringing an end to our ski industry and changing agriculture. This is the second day of rubbish in the NZ media since the release of the IPCC report. No doubt the spin is just as bad in the UK media.
On 27 Sep 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:
Can this be the bbc actualy having a sceptic on the air
this is worth a listen it was on the world at one radio 4 BBC
8.51 in to the program.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03bg4vp/World_at_One_27_09_2013/
On 27 Sep 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
11˚C overnight, rising to 16˚ by afternoon, dull morning with stratus and one or two light showers, brightening up around midday with mostly broken stratocumulus, S breeze all day, a typical autumn day. - I don't have time to follow the IPCC brouhaha, my total daily news intake consists of 10 minutes of Radio Scotland over breakfast, but I would agree with all below that the announcement is sounding desperate. You can fool some of the people some of the time...etc.
On 27 Sep 2013, Rob Horler wrote:
The IPCC report reminds me of the budget a bit. Give it a few days and let the grown ups pick the holes in it.
I must admit to being disappointed at Benny Peiser on the Vine show today, I put a link of his up earlier in the week as I think he did a good presentation explaining the Green Dogma but he could have said more today.
Interestingly their key argument was this 0.9 rise over the time period which seemed undefined,and they now claim AGW is responsible for half of it so we a re talking about 0.45? Big deal. What I want to know is do they have a model temperature range for the world they wish to acheive,if so can they disclose it and then tell us they will mantain it? Are they saying that the temperatures of sixty or so years ago were perfect for all and tyhat we now need to maintain these conditions for ever?Honestly,it reall is utter drivel. And if it gets really cold have they calculated how much nasty C02 we will need to fend off the ice?
On 27 Sep 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:
Hope this makes you smile say,s it all really.
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/9/27/intergovernmental-ar5-patch-up-josh-240.html
On 27 Sep 2013, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Actually, there is hope in this latest IPCC incarnation in that some of the arguments are so ludicrous as to make previous incarnations seem sane.
'The ocean has absorbed all the warmth and buried it'. Evidence/
'Britain may get colder during global warming'. Evidence of the Gulf Stream stopping?
'15 yr hiatus is irrelevant'. So what WOULD be relevant?
'Our models project...' I"m sure they do. Do they predict accurately?? Evidence from the past is inconclusive to put it diplomatically.
'Consensus = truth'. Yes: the nazis all agreed that the Jews were the cause of all evil. It didn't make it true, did it??
'We've increased our probability from 90% to 95% so it's got to be true'. How did you calculate that probability quantitatively?? Do your error calculations stack up??
i don't think these pseudo scientists realise what hell will befall them when their appeasers are overthrown.
Hell hath no fury like ordinary people swindled for a generation......
On 27 Sep 2013, shaun wrote:
cont... but the trend itself is actually cooler temperature. Please point out any flaws in my logic or my of view, but at this moment I can't see a flaw.
I havve been saying it for some time now, and this report confirms my belief, that the current trend in climate is cooler. Because when you get lower than average for so long, you eventually get a new average that is lower, which is the new trend. Am I fair in saying that 15 years is 25% of the time frame mentioned and being that they are the last 25% that there is a new trend of cooler temps. Hence the year of the wettest drought on record, MO data shows 7 months below average temps.
On 27 Sep 2013, shaun wrote:
The BBC reporting of the recent IPCC report is seriously flawed based on simple logic. Please point out any mistakes in my reasoning, as I am not an expert.
They claim that scientists are 95% certain of AGW from the 1950's. Well to round it up 1950's was 60 years ago right?
Then they defend themselves from the 15 year hiatus by explaining that 15 years is insignificant in climate terms. Which at first you could say fair enough, 15 years may seem insiginifant over a long period. But they are talking about the AGW of the last 60 years, so 15 years would actually be 25% of that period correct? I mean I personally believe a quarter is a significant portion. But for me, the most important fact is that instead of sporadic cooler years mixed into the 60 years in debate here, it has been the last 15 years consecutively. So that makes the 15 years more significant that a cooler year, here and there as it would suggest that is not a random fluke.wobble in the current trend...
On 27 Sep 2013, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
The answer Mark of Rutland is that the IPCC is not a scientific body. It is a political creation that has the assumption that AGW is true in its remit and is, therefore, not looking to understand what truly drives the changes in our climate but scratching around for proof of its AGW stance. As the evidence proves more elusive they just make it up. The reports - pal-reviewed of course - that support the myth were written from the standpoint of 'how do I prove AGW' rather than proper science which says 'I wonder'. The only nasty is that they seem to be trying to slip in comments that the gulf stream will slow and the UK will cool. As the coming ice age will cool the UK they have covered themselves for that but we can only hope that they will be stumped to explain the global cooling.
On 27 Sep 2013, Mark (Rutland, 45d sub) wrote:
So the IPCC is now more convinced than ever that global warming is really happening - up from 90% confidence to 95%.
Whilst CO2 has continued to rise steadily over the years (following past projections), global temperatures do not appear to have risen for at least fifteen years, despite all previous projections showing an ever upward trend in global temperatures.
Being that they never forecast a flat trend line and that the temperature data is diverging ever further from their projected forecasts, one has to wonder what possible scientific methodology they are using to award themselves ever higher confidence in their global warming hypothesis?
It strikes me that, in the absence of any credible new evidence since their last report, saying that they are now more confident than ever is simply the best headline that they can come up with.
Oh, and why can't the scientists just tell us the way it is and not need governments to vet their conclusions first....
On 27 Sep 2013, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Clear blue sky and usn this morning! Previous days have been very misty with intermittent rain. However, whereas temps during the early morning were still up to 17-18 Celsius in the house, this morning it's under 15 Celsius, even at 10 AM. And we've had the first frost of the year, which was indicated last night by a clear starry sky and cccccOLD when walking the dog at 11 PM. Time to clean out the woodstove and pipes and get prepped for winter me thinks.
On 27 Sep 2013, Rob wrote:
Watching Breakfast News this morning Isee the IPCC are today putting out their latest report " that shows man made climate change is definitely happening" . It would appear that the language used in this report is the most hysterical yet and has all the hallmarks of a mad last rant and effort to justify themselves. Is there not a body of scientists or some other organised group willing to counter them? The world needs a strong voice to take them on.
On 26 Sep 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
Clear start but no frost, though down to 3˚C overnight and feeling really raw in the morning. Rising to 15˚C by afternoon, first with a NW'ly then SSE'ly, we had a mostly sunny day with beautiful cirrus clouds in the morning in all sorts of wispy and patterned shapes, they seem at the moment mostly to appear in the mornings, often followed later by various cumulus shapes, including some high towering ones but no rain. This has recently then been followed by an overcast or rainy day. Paying more attention to such patterns is like deciphering a script from which much could be learned. - Remarkable how the present pressure pattern resembles Piers' Euro pressure forecast as well as the 30d one, clear & turning colder. Watching that Low to the SW of Britain, will it be the one that brings the surprises?
On 26 Sep 2013, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
There is a very interesting paper on WUWT that casts a giant shadow over one of the main temperature databases. The writer is a former warmist who is trying to undertake serious scientific study on flora and fauna related to temperature in an area of western USA. His problem is that the warmist manipulated temp record is useless as it is so obviously wrong since the various 'corrections' have been applied. The changes magically reduce the 1930s temps to make it look worse than it is but the real problem is the lack of correction for UHI and changes in the land use around temp stations. A major driver of the increase in the temp record is the increase in nightime minima. This is driven by urbanisation even in very small communities. Strip this out and the result is very little change at all, and more interestingly, a correlation with changes in the PDO. Worth the read as it provides further ammunition to bring down warmists.
On 26 Sep 2013, Craig M (Berks 45d Sub) wrote:
Steve D - thanks for that. Notice how in contrast to articles on the IPCC position (linked in other comments below) every time a skeptical opinion is presented the adjoining paragraph has a IPCC member replying (even if their replies are wholly unsatisfactory). This gives the appearance of balance. Notice also how the article is couched in terms of 'it is still warming' just at the lower end of projections. This is a fallacy. Even with the data manipulation (cooling past/warming present) there is no statistically significant warming and as Judith Curry has argued a cooling trend seems to be emerging (certainly notable with CET). By CO2 theory we should have warmed regardless of natural cycles (said to overwhelm the quiet sun). All their predictions have failed and the BBC refuse to address this instead deliberately framing the argument to delude us into believing the underlying science is sound and that the sky is still failing. This must end.
On 26 Sep 2013, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
Another day, another war on the BBC News website between the UN Panel (IPCC) and global-warming sceptics; http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24233643
Is the tide finally turning?!?
On 26 Sep 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Gill: brilliant analyses of the situation and of course consequently they keep telling us that we need more expensive and nearly useless renewables to keep the drivers of the eco-panic in financial clover.
On 25 Sep 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
What started out like another dreich day with fog & drizzle in a NE breeze turned into an eventually sunny though cool afternoon with beautiful cumulus towers which massed together with dark foreboding in the NW for a while. Temperature didn't shift much, from 10 – 13˚C was all, a proper autumn day. Tonight at 10pm it was down to 5˚C, I won't be surprised if there is a frost tomorrow morning. Saw one swallow today.
On 25 Sep 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
The can't look in the mirror Nine, because they are vampires sucking the blood of grant aid and subsidies from us.
On 25 Sep 2013, Gill 1066 East Sussex - subscriber wrote:
Have I got this right? Cold wet summers = climate change. Hot dry summers = climate change. Mild wet winters with no snow = climate change. Cold winters with lots of snow = climate change.
On 25 Sep 2013, Nino VAN EECKHOUT wrote:
Hi Piers,
Today on the news I heard quite a nice one that you should know. It's been noticed that the current amount of ice on the north pole is actually growing rapidly. Now the CO2 believers and scientists don't see a reason to believe that the world is cooling down, in fact they hang on to global warming. BUT, the National Marine Biologist Institute of Moermansk has definetly broken with that idea. They have officialy stated that the world is in a fase of cooling down and this for at least the next 30 years. The CO2 scientists have stated that these 30 years don't change anything to their point of view because after those 30 years there will be natural warming + the CO2 warming and it'll be a climate bomb. Jesus this way I can explain everything. Time for the CO2 believers and scientists to look in the mirror...
On 25 Sep 2013, shaun wrote:
The UK's most dangerous spider is believed to be the "steatoda nobilis - known as the false black widow spider - which can land grown men in hospital with its bite.
After a woman was hospitalised from a spider bite:
Experts warn of an increase in the numbers of the false black widow in recent years due to a run of milder winters."
Daily Mail.
Sorry but I was under the impression from memory and actual experience that majority of the UK for the last 5 years have had generally bad winters, colder than average, scold and snowy, then summers too over the last 5 years apart from the most recent, have been colder than average and wetter than average. Well, we all remember the wettest drought on record lol. But seriously, the year of the wettest drought actually had 7 months of below average temperature according to Met Office data, so what recent mild winters is it these so called experts are talking about? anyone got a clue?
On 25 Sep 2013, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
David Rowe
The BBC got their story from an expenses-paid trip for Roger Harrabin, eco-spinner in chief at the BBC.
The Times today gives credence to Nicholas Stern, he of the famous green economics report.
The Letters in the Times today are a complete joke. One says: 'I don't understand the science, but I 'just know' that global warming is happening'. A second said 'Tyndall's experiment shows that carbon dioxide can absorb certain radiation ergo dangerous global warming exists'.
I know that The Times will say that 'they are reflecting the letters they receive, but really: that trio were the most laughable I've ever read.
You might as well say that because cells divide very rapidly in the first week after conception that they go on dividing equally rapidly forever more. If that were true for even six months every woman on earth would be dead, having exploded due to the monstrous cancer inside them.
ASYMPTOTIC CURVES!!
Go study enzymology is climate science is too
On 25 Sep 2013, David Rowe,Wirral wrote:
Hi Piers & All, On Radio 5 live this morning apparently the Himalayan glaciers are melting because too many locals are using wood burning stoves which in turn darken the ice with soot etc.I didn't know whether to cry or laugh,where do they get these people from?James Delingpole in the Telegraph says ' 95% of intelligent people know the new IPCC reports are utter drivel' We are not alone!
On 25 Sep 2013, Carl T 45 sub NE Wales ele 1m wrote:
Yesterday was low white cloud all day, turning to drizzle and mist by 3pm and stayed that way till this morning and is still that way now at 08:48 temps 12-14 daytime and 8-9 night time certainly not the indian summer mention, but in line with the WA forecast.
On 24 Sep 2013, Lorraine Lister wrote:
More very wild weather in the North Island of NZ overnight http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11129585
On 24 Sep 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
It has been a month of contrasts with a temp range of 0˚ - 26˚C and anything from a steel blue sky to total & somber cloud cover. Today again, a total change from the previous two days: at 5.30 the moon could still be seen through the mist but shortly after it became foggy, 12˚C at 7.30, the fog lifted for a short while and the sun could be seen through stratocumulus blobs for a few minutes, then the fog returned for the rest of the day, max temp 16˚C, drizzle & light rain from 4pm. A couple of swallows were seen, just, might not be the last ones yet, we could also hear but not see geese, probably navigating on auto pilot :-)
On 24 Sep 2013, Lorraine Lister wrote:
More interesting weather for NZ. Although we're curently in an R2 a new storm has hit the north of the North Island and is due to move south overnight http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11129148.
On 23 Sep 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
Another clear day today with wall-to-wall sunshine, though only 9˚C at 7.30 and quite a bit of dew, rising to 21˚ by midday, light SW breeze. Some remarkable cirrus & altocumulus which I took pictures of & hope to put on Craig's blog eventually. Spending more time observing what type of clouds precede changes. - The neighbour's barley in our fields was combined yesterday, hopefully low moisture content as it was a very dry day, I think slightly later than last year. In spite of late spring and because of really good summer and so far good autumn here, crops have caught up; most people's barley has long been harvested, our neighbours are contractors, so their stuff always gets done last. - Still saw a couple of swallows today, some day soon it'll be the last ones; geese now beginning to make regular appearances.
On 23 Sep 2013, Lorraine wrote:
I don't know about other parts of the country but the holly trees have a lot of berries on them - folklore dictates a cold winter. I live in guernsey!
On 23 Sep 2013, Gill 1066 East Sussex - subscriber wrote:
A glorious, warm, nay -hot July summer's day. The sea from my Aunt's balcony was sparking blue; I fantasised about going down for a paddle. Only the early lengthening shadows belie the fact that it is September.....back to short skirts and sandals. More of this please; it will make those dreary winter days seem shorter. Yes I know many of you want belligerent autumnal storms and snow, -you'll just have to wait and let the summer lovers like me enjoy this autumnal lapse first. As the song says...Good old Sussex by the sea!
On 23 Sep 2013, Craig M (Berks 45d Sub) wrote:
...cont....because apparently all that co2 should have had us roasting by now (yes a warm stable climate is to be feared) but as that and other predictions have utterly failed it therefore muat be co2 stopping the cooling...the plateau as they call it. As the earth cools...and it will...this will be further 'proof' so we must end this assault on science. It will not be easy as the warmists are entrenched in all levels of govt and NGOs. The policies they advocate and force on us will continue regardless of what is happenening with the science and these fanatics are redoubling their efforts as seen by Obama's anti-science agenda and resorting to dismissal of observational fact dicrediting theories by using ad hominem (deniers etc) or resorting to a 'magic bullet' theory to explain no warming (magic oceans). It's time to finish the job for good.
On 23 Sep 2013, Not supplied wrote:
The IPCC have officially stuck their fingers in their ears
& are going 'na-na-na'...from the BBC === "But since 2007, there has been a growing focus on the fact that global average temperatures haven't gone above the level recorded in 1998.This slowdown, or hiatus as the IPCC refers to it, has been leapt upon by climate sceptics to argue that the scientific belief that emitting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere increases the temperature of the planet, is wrong.Scientists have attempted to explain the pause in a number of ways, with many arguing that the Earth has continued to warm but that the heat has gone into oceans." === http://bbc.in/19rPrIY === so clearly they have no clue which makes them 95% certain (they want to hang on to their exorbitant budgets & keep up the tax payer jollies.). Remember these fanatics will not give up the fight, they have already made it clear the 'science' doesn't matter & are even saying CO2 has stopped us cooling...cont....
On 23 Sep 2013, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Anybody fancy joining me for a sail around the North Pole as according to the BBC in 2007 trumpetting Maslewski's prediction, as of yesterday there is no ice!!! Not withstanding the link Steve below, has anyone seen a BBC article commenting on why there is more Arctic ice now than for a number of years? An interview with Maslowski would be good to ask him why he was wrong. While warm weather is generally better than freezing cold, I have to declare that I am one of those hoping for a brutal winter to ensure that the planet starts visibly cooling in all the Warmist temperature databases and that we can look forward to their struggles to explain not just a 17 year pause but an obvious cooling.
On 23 Sep 2013, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
Interesting reading...the truth about Global Cooling is desperate to come out now http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24173504
On 22 Sep 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
Clear, bright and warm start, 17˚C at 7.30, like a reminder of the lovely summer we've had. Not a cloud in the sky until mid morning when the odd fair weather cumulus started appearing, temp rose to a magic 23˚C in the shade, it was more like 30˚ in front of the house which is sheltered from the breezy W winds we had all day. By 9.30pm it was 14˚C but felt mild with a summery smell in the air. There was no dew to speak of this morning, still some swallows flying about, not much of an autumn feel about even though it was equinox today.
On 22 Sep 2013, Ken wrote:
I have read in the Sunday Times that 'Global Warming' has stalled for the last 15 years, and this may be due to 'natural variation' . The IPCC has now withdrawn some of its predictions such as the loss of the summer polar Ice Cap, the loss of Glaciers in the Himalayas, and that North Africa will not be able to grow crops. If as Piers has predicted, and we do have a period of cooling or a Little Ice Age, and people die as a result of putting politics before science, will any of them be held accountable for their crimes?
On 22 Sep 2013, Rob Horler wrote:
I am amazed at how unchallenged Ed Milliband is about his role in the climate change act. He is forever pretending to be the saviour of the poor but in reality his ridiculous target of c02 reduction is crippling us all and the poor feel it most. Have a look at the link below,it is in three parts and then continue to challenge your Mps, all but a handfull of them signed up to this agenda making it hard for them to criticize him. The green dogma is going to break us all unless the policies are reveiwed. I wonder if he was aware that pensioners were buying up seccond hand books as a cheap source of fuel. The Guardian works well too.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxyF_SoItnU
On 21 Sep 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
Friday 20th: clear moonlit start, 5˚C at 7.30, eventually rising to 17˚ with good sunny spells in between mostly various cirrus formations in the morning, thicker altocumulus in the afternoon, then lovely sunny evening. - Today 21st: overnight temp of 11˚C, sunny morning with many rippled & stippled altocumulus, temp got to 19˚, then clouding over after midday, cooler, no rain here but saw from the radar there was quite a bit in the far north. Moderate wind from SW all day. Temp at 9pm 14˚, feeling mild. - Saw hundreds of swallows massing on wires near us, we've seen them every day this week migrating south. River Dee very low, not been like this in many years.
On 21 Sep 2013, Lorraine Lister wrote:
New Zealand came off realitvely unscathed through the two R5 periods but we're getting some very stormy weather for the current R3 http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/9191405/Thunderstorm-hits-Wellington-region We've had thunder storms in the top of the South Island too and the Met Service forecast is for more heavy rain overnight tonight. However, it was supposed to be heavy rain today but it eased off by late morning and at the moment there is just a lot of low cloud over the hills. Temps are very mild as its a northerly airstream.
On 20 Sep 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire wrote:
Gerry, I don't get it either. High solar wind, plenty of protons and the bz field south yet still no aurora, then the bz field weakensand the protons almost disappear and the aurora kicks off. I've seen aurora start showing well with a solar wind of only 1.5p/3cm and a 300kn/sec solar wind but the bz field well south. Sometimes the aurora will be triggered very soon (hours) after a CME leaves the solar farside so how is that affecting the earth's atmos' ? The permanent magnetic connection between earth and sun has to hold many secrets, why? Because the gravity only flat-earth brigade can't understand....or won't allow themselves to understand that there can be electrical activity / electrical energy present throughout space. Kinda messes up their pompous equations. They can believe in supernatural Black Holes and can actually observe magnetic fields existing in the plasma of space, yet still deny the existence of electrical activity in the so called vacuum of space.
On 20 Sep 2013, Gerry North Downs 45d 600ft wrote:
Interesting week for the solar wind. Tuesday the density went up to 10protons/cm3. No obvious reason and I recall Piers in the past has said this is a meaningful level - please feel free to correct if I am wrong - even if the speed is medium. Spaceweather then noted that there had been some CMEs and included a video. They stated that they were not earthbound but were they the reason for the increase in density? Note that spaceweather often states that there won't be an earth effect but they are thinking of geo-magnetic storms as opposed to changes in the strength of the solar wind. Yesterday the wind increased to 600km/s - again with no obvious reason until today's page which reports a CME from a filament. However they doubt it will effect Earth as is it slow!! Wouldn't consider 600km/s as slow although the density is low.
On 20 Sep 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subs wrote:
So the Germans think we shouldn't use just 10 to 15 years as it's too short a time period, but the Belgians think that 10 years is fine, and should be used as a new benchmark..... Of course the American polly'ticians parroting has to go one better by making up some ludicrously unbelievable theory. Now the oceans have been coerced into becoming anti-science! Funny how, just over the past 100 years, the whole climate system seems to have forgotten that the earth is floating around in a cold plasma some -233C with only +123C in the sun... Net heat loss, if it wasn't for the atmosphere being full of WATER VAPOUR! Now there's a true global warming gas. If nothing else, the IPCC are truly entertaining!
On 19 Sep 2013, BLACK PEARL wrote:
ROFL....... Ho Ho Ho Its Christmass
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2425775/Climate-scientists-told-cover-fact-Earths-temperature-risen-15-years.html
On 19 Sep 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
Hazy moonshine this morning, with a temp of 5˚C at 7.30. Then overcast with altostratus which by about 9am turned into nimbostratus and rained until around midday, I could see from the radar that the west of the country must have been deluged overnight. The sun put in a brief appearance around lunchtime and the temperature got up to 13˚, by 10pm it was down to 8˚ again but it felt mild. Typical autumn day of the wettish kind, I would say, sunny again tomorrow. MO is now forecasting 22˚C for Sunday.
On 19 Sep 2013, BLACK PEARL wrote:
"On 19 Sep 2013, Lynne (S.Wales) wrote:
Interesting to see that the Arctic sea ice minimum in Sept is back withing 2 standard deviations of the 1981-2010 average: "
################
Nigel F. thinks so as well !
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aylLhPHI1TI
On 19 Sep 2013, Gill 1066 East Sussex - subscriber wrote:
October 45d. I'm going to have to read it a few times to take it all in. I am glad I will not be relying on just the usual 5 days from the MOBEEB. You can't beat being forewarned.
On 19 Sep 2013, Lynne (S.Wales) wrote:
Interesting to see that the Arctic sea ice minimum in Sept is back withing 2 standard deviations of the 1981-2010 average:
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
On 18 Sep 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
Another cool & bright morning, 5˚C at 7.30, though no frost. Glad we put the CH on. WNW wind all day, even getting up a bit in the afternoon, but temp still got to 15˚, lovely cirrus clouds in the morning, then mostly cumulus & stratocumulus, very light showers in the afternoon, a great and mostly sunny autumn day. Temp at 10pm was 8˚C, an almost cloudless sky with a big moon which will be full tomorrow at 12:13 apparently.
On 18 Sep 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:
Wind Farms in the states have killed 67 Eagles in 5 years.
Bet we have the same or more bird kill than this, the green party Libs and Nick Clegge Would probably blame the Tory's for this But he is a water Mellon, This is the link...
http://www.sci-tech-today.com/news/Study--Wind-Farms-Killing-Eagles/story.xhtml?story_id=10100A0Y2GGQ
On 18 Sep 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire 45/75day subs wrote:
Not so windy today, not so cold, not so wet. A more normal September day. Saw a female Marsh Harrier gliding low over the local moors. A common sight in the latter half of September as they migrate south from their breeding grounds in Leighton Moss and Blacktoft Sands RSPB reserves to Africa.
On 18 Sep 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
good to see your positive remarks on the Iceagenow site on which this very interesting lonk occurs
http://ktwop.wordpress.com/2013/07/beware-global-cooling/
On 17 Sep 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
Overnight temp 8˚C, rising to 16˚ around midday on a mostly sunny day with beautiful cumulus and stratocumulus and the occasional lenticular clouds typical of a windy day, blowing mostly from NNW at various strengths but never unpleasant; 5˚ at 10pm under a clear moonlit sky, wonder whether we'll see another frost tomorrow. Warm enough to go about in shirtsleeves in the afternoon, but we did decide to put the central heating on for the mornings, which is a bit early admittedly, but it does help one to get going without the rattle of chattering teeth :-). Swallows visited us on the way south, also saw quite a number at one of the usual assembly points.
On 17 Sep 2013, Russ 45day Derbyshire subs wrote:
>> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-24107609 << Give it a few more years then ask the same question.
On 17 Sep 2013, Russ 45day Derbyshire subs wrote:
...cont'd... I've noticed that all the trees have had an excellent show of leaves this year. All those glorious sunny days and little wind had them looking lush and majestic. So I'm left wondering if we are going to have a lot of sweeping up to do in October when all those leaves fall. We could be knee deep in places. There's a distinct possibility that this phenomenon could create some beautiful autumn paintings and photographs, but recently the cold snaps have tended to come on the end of a Jet Stream loop, which brings strong winds. It's often relatively mild in-between too, so it could turn out to be a deciduously dead-loss this year....
On 17 Sep 2013, Craig M (Berks 45d Sub) wrote:
The R5 period has come to an end - obvious as the winds dropped - but it was a very wet, dull day bar a fleeting glimpse this evening. Sunday was wet and windy locally receiving the most in a 24hr period so far this year. Thankfully we never got the high winds up North (maxed at ~35mph here) but it's starting to look Autumnal with branches and leaves down. I'm with Gill on the 45d upgrade, the extra 15 days are worth every penny - like knowing an 'unseasonal' deep low with was going to hit the BI. In combination with the Euromaps these products are a serious tool for anyone serious about the weather. Remarkable call Piers and to think the MetO got a bonus for their 'accuracy' for last years performance! We all know how accurate they were in 2012 - the wettest drought on record! Nowcasting is not forecasting. Paul Homewood on the bonuses == http://bit.ly/1545rhJ
On 17 Sep 2013, Russ 45day Derbyshire subs wrote:
OK! Forget about the 'is it summer - is it autumn' mini-debate, in fact forget autumn entirely, 'cos today winter started.... Now I am one of those lucky people with plenty of brown adipose tissue, so I have no trouble keeping warm. No circulation problems either, but today while walking the dog, my hands and ears told me it was late November. My mum's outside sensor said 9C by late afternoon but I reckon it was only 7C in a more rural setting and on fairly high ground. Add some fine, misty drizzle and a very strong, persistent wind and the windchill had me expecting sleet. At one point I thought it was starting to drop tiny flakes of snow. My wife told me that she thought she saw the same thing too and that was an urban setting. ... Any flakes spotted in the bonnie far north?? Loads of different mushrooms in the woods, a very healthy crop but almost no Yew berries, with most trees having none at all. ...cont'd..,.
On 17 Sep 2013, Bill smith NE Wales 45 d sub wrote:
(Contd ), a vicious low whipped up 90 mph winds in a few hours.
On 17 Sep 2013, Bill Smith NE Wales (45d sub) wrote:
Back in Wales, After a windy and dreich day yesterday, today was damp drizzly and virtually windless come late afternoon ( a real " fine mist" , a "wet you through" late afternoon) These kind of days can result in a flip to high winds when the low skips through. (A good example for NE Wales was 24 th Dec 1997 .
On 17 Sep 2013, BLACK PEARL wrote:
'Climate Silence' on enviromental section of BBC these days. Climate & IPCC reports no mention ?
On 17 Sep 2013, WENDY wrote:
Freezing cold wind and rain here in the Peak District,Yesterday, 16th , very stormy all day.Many garden birds including a nuthatch,looking for food this morning.Just been out again to fill up the bird feeders in the wind and rain!!
On 17 Sep 2013, susie dorset wrote:
Well said David Rowe.
On 17 Sep 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:
On 17 Sep 2013, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
I have had my comments censored by this so called paper and they routinely stop any of my comments so yes it is a soviet type of paper and should be banned from publication, But as it is not read by any one other than the BBC propagandists i think they are doomed .
It,s Cold and cloudy here at the present moment 09.19 Tuesday 17th Sept.
On 17 Sep 2013, David Rowe wrote:
Hi Piers & ALL, Rhys Jagger----I have experienced the same kind of censorship with the Guardian,but it doesn't stop at AGW issuses.I recently asked a legitimate question with their support of the badger protest groups.I asked if they were so concerned with animal welfare why do they not protest against the daily practice of hanging a beast upside down while conscious and slashing it's throat.The badger groups never give me an answer just like the Global Warmers will not answer my challenge to provide scientific proof of AGW for a reward of 1k.They are all dishonest popinjays.
On 17 Sep 2013, Carl T 45 sub NE Wales ele 1m wrote:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/10310712/Top-climate-scientists-admit-global-warming-forecasts-were-wrong.html
It gets better.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/10313261/EU-policy-on-climate-change-is-right-even-if-science-was-wrong-says-commissioner.html
I think I need a long walk to clear my head after reading that !
On 17 Sep 2013, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
It's getting harder to stand up for science, Piers.
The Guardian now censors any kind of rebuttal to the sort of crap that Monbiot is world-renowned for peddling: I attempted several comments and replies, all within the rules and almost all were censored. The Guardian is doing this more and more and is now a Soviet-style propaganda organ, only allowing fawning sheep to have their comments recorded.
When those who dissent are called flat-earthed have their viewpoints censored, a tipping point has been reached which demands responses entirely unlike the reasoned debate which has come before,
It requires laws defining such behaviour as criminal, incompatible with journalism and with punishments for the journalist of 10 years ban from any publication of anything, anywhere; 10 years in prison for the editor; and the newspaper shut down for good with the owners banned from owning a media title for life.
It won't happen.
On 17 Sep 2013, Sue wrote:
Spent the weekend on Arranmore island on the west coast of Donegal, amazing sunny Saturday, sightseeing then by early Saturday evening the storm started to turn on us by night rain was pouring down the windows of the little hotel we were holed up in. Went to bed and couldn't hear the storm for the traditional Irish music belting away downstairs, as soon as they packed away the storm was raging... My first experience of an Atlantic storm...considering it was way north of us still it's power was impressive. By lunchtime Sunday it had passed over us but on our journey back home to Dublin we caught up with it and there was a lot of leaves and branches torn from trees.
On 17 Sep 2013, Russ 45day Derbyshire subs wrote:
Just visiting Torridon for the day Paddy. Staying at RAF Dornoch.
On 16 Sep 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
Michael: I was going to say that we still see swallows at the usual gathering places where they congregate before making the next move, we would expect them to be gone by next week, which is usual. As I mentioned before, our "own" ones have left more than 2 weeks ago, which was early. It seems that they just get together for a good feed at designated locations before pushing on southwards, always the same places every year.
On 16 Sep 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
Yep, frost as anticipated, thermometer read 1˚C at 6am but as it is about 5ft off the ground it doesn't reflect the full reality: the car was white with ice, so was the lawn and any bare soil in the garden, courgette leaves got a hammering, lettuce was white etc. The day started with brilliant cloudless sky but soon clouded over with stratocumulus which kept the morning dull, temp never got beyond 13˚C, even though the sun came out in the afternoon. Back down to 9˚ by 10pm. Mostly a calm day with WNW breeze, which got a bit stronger in the afternoon. All a very great change from a couple of weeks ago. - Russ, it seems that we have been spared what other parts have got, it really wasn't that bad with us. You'll be sneaking way far past us if you're going to Torridon, we're in the East. - Craig, had a look at dropevent.com, great, hope to contribute soon, just sooo busy right now.
On 16 Sep 2013, Michael wrote:
Here in the souther valley of the Brecon Beacons at 1200 feet, I observed dozens of Painted Lady butterflies on Saturday Sept.14th and also dozens of swallows still here feeding on high.This seems rather late at this altitude.Any comments anyone?
On 16 Sep 2013, James M wrote:
Meanwhile, Canberra Australia has recorded it's highest ever September daily rainfall on record on the 16th during the R5, amid heavy rainfall widespread in NSW caused by a complex low pressure trough.
On 16 Sep 2013, Craig M (Berks 45d Sub) wrote:
Cloud Pictures=== Not ideal but this is an open forum which will (finally) allow you to upload cloud pics. Catch is it lasts 6 months only but as it's mainly to capture the images which I can move over to my blog. === http://dropevent.com/Gallery/go812590 === To upload scroll down and you can see the button on the right. You need a valid email address which once entered a box will appear so you can load several images. Once these have uploaded a caption box appears. Please add where taken/time and if possible a description of the conditions (i.e. warm humid day. T Storms in afternoon etc). All images are moderated.
On 16 Sep 2013, Mark from Scotland wrote:
Dusting of Snow on the Glencoe Mountains last night, 4.5c at 0400 this morning in Bathgate.
On 16 Sep 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subscriber wrote:
Winds have died down today but it's flippin cold/er. My wife was wearing two fleeces last night walking the dog and her hands still turned a nasty shade of purple...and they were in her pockets!! ...... Paddy...we'll be sneaking past you next weekend on our annual pilgrimage to the Highlands. Can't wait to see those special Scottish skies again and the sunset beaches looking like they've been floodlit by the BBC ...surreal! I've chosen Stac Pollaidh as a wee scramble to break in my new boots, which gives me the excuse to waste petrol driving around Torridon and Assynt for a few hours....bliss. I'll be keeping my eyes peeled for snow, which I reckon could be early this year, judging by the reports on 'Ice Age Now' and the size and power of the Jet Stream loops passing across the UK this last week or so.
On 16 Sep 2013, Gill 1066 East Sussex - subscriber wrote:
Sunday started off bright and calm. By mid-morning very breezy. The afternoon brought winds blasting in with rain. The Sep 45d forecast said dry, warm, sunny for the first week of September and then this first real storm driving in between the 13th and 16th. Extraordinary forecasting from mid-August. I subscribed to the 30d back in February; took advantage of the offer to upgrade to 45d in July. I cannot see myself going back to 30d with this accuracy. My niece gets married next month on the fifth. I have told her I will let her know what to expect. Could this be wedding no 3 this year bang on the nail?
On 16 Sep 2013, David Rowe wrote:
Hi Piers & All, A very stormy night here on the Wirral,we cannot recall the last time the wind was driving the rain so hard on the bedroom windows.My better half asked me to comfort her as she was scared,so i whistled the dog up to rescue me,from a scary night!!
On 16 Sep 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Black Pearl: The 'Strathy' says that every year at this time. Sometimes it turns out that way and other winters it does not and anyway, cold, snowy winters in the east-central Grampians are fairly normal.
On 16 Sep 2013, Carl T 45 sub NE Wales ele 1m wrote:
Wet and wild here in NE Wales yesterday and lastnight, exactly on cue, thanks Piers we had "battened down the hatches" on Friday leading up to this event.
On 16 Sep 2013, BLACK PEARL wrote:
http://www.strathspey-herald.co.uk/News/Another-hard-cold-winter-forecast-for-Highlands-15092013.htm
Do you concur Piers ?
On 15 Sep 2013, Ron Greer wrote:
Well nothing too dramatic here, though it's a sharp contrast to yesterday's 'last of the summer wine feeling' Just hope that not too many leaves are blown off, before we can enjoy the colours in the 'Indian Summer' the Mobeeb are already hinting at for next weekend.
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YES! Earth-Facing Coronal Hole (12th) on cue for the start of WeatherAction R5+ QV5 13th as blasts both sides of Atlantic get organized in line with WeatherAction forecasts. Storms get ready to attack Ireland & Britain and cold blast N/E USA lines up pic.twitter.com/7v0vRoWY7w and SpaceWeather link above.
Half-submerged cars at Greeley Colorado as debris filled rivers from the mountains ran over land. The massive floods in Denver-Larimer-Boulder area Colorado were due to extreme rains on Wed 11th and days before - which swelled rivers over a wide area. WeatherAction-USA forecast issued 31 Aug included a prolonged wet period 7-12th for which Denver-Boulder was on the SW edge of the large very wet region. In this ~7-9th was forecast to have "Major intense thunder and hail...." and turn to more "thundery showers..." ~10-12th (all+/-1 day with boundaries approximate) 
