Comments from Piers
WeatherAction

This is WeatherAction's Current News & Comment Post
These posts are updated often and replaced by a newer post as needs require
You are welcome to join discussions at the foot of this post
This post was started on 14th November 2013. See below for current updates and news. 
USA News is further below

SEE FOOT OF POST FOR STANDARD INFORMATION ON:
=> What are WeatherAction Long Range forecasts?
=> WeatherAction LongRange forecasts are not 'early' substitutes for short range forecasts.  
=> Past WeatherAction forecasts available in Forecast Archive 
=> LINKS to important Weather & Climate & other sites 


For the latest on Br+Ir "Snowy North Blast or Poodle-Out?" and November Brit+Ire discussion please go to new blog: 
http://bit.ly/I5j1ge 
 

WEATHERACTION WINTER 2013-2014 FORECASTS

WeatherAction Br+Ir forecasts for DEC 2013 ('Essence') and JAN 2014 ('Essence') 
as produced Sept 9 are NOW LOADED ON SITE in 45d & 75d services respectively

WeatherAction Full detailed DECEMBER 45d is LOADED on access sites: 
Br+Ir 45d;  Br+Ir 75d; 'The Lot' (all forecasts together)

This includes the topical ~18-20...Nov "Blast from the North or Poodle" SUBSCRIBERS ONLY UPDATE NOW  PUBLIC (20Nov after 17:30 Gmt) available via  =>WAnews48 
(in addition to Thought For The Day below)

For 30d Br+Ir Subscribers Update Document WA13No48s is Loaded in forecast box

The 75d service includes everything in 45d which includes everything in 30d 

WeatherAction FEB 2014 forecast and forecasts for MARCH, APRIL & MAY 2014 are available now by direct subscription* and will be loaded onto/updated as 75d, 45d, 30d forecasts in due time. 
(*Enquiries: 02079399946, 07908734296, piers@weatheraction.com  )

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01.00hrs 15Nov
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15 Nov Thought For The Day (subsequent days further down)
Q&A: The Joys of "Free And Wrong" Standard Model Long-Range Weather Projections
Q: How long will you spend this winter paining over what some computer model might mean 10 or 14 days ahead?       A: At least 10 hours?
Q: What is your time worth?        A: At least half the minimum wage? - £3 per hour
So for 30 quid you could:
- End the pain!
- Get a Life!
- Enjoy the best available Long Range forecasts in the world!
It's a no-brainer
UNLESS of course you don't really want to know - In which case that's fine too but don't complain when your activities are forced to meander as much as the Jet stream! 

16Nov Thought For The Day - Piers says
Thank You and Welcome all new subscribers to our early Xmas offer. It  is proving very popular but please, current subscribers spread the word to anyone serious about weather. The more we get on board the lower we can keep prices.

Another beast from the East?
Thank You Craig-M for your Comm below on WeatherAction beating standard Met UK Med-Short range at decisive turns last winter. Remember the much vaunted 'Beast from the East', also an Express headline, last Dec which turned out to be a poodle as we warned. After that there were events the other way later in winter where standard Met was going for less cold/snow but our WeatherAction long view was more useful - see WANews47 via http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/pv.asp?p=wact41 - for details of events reported in a presentation to The Overhead Power Line Engineers Forum (ea technology, Capenhurst) 21 March.
Some subscribers - eg Mike Lewis, thanks - have asked for comment (eg are alternative scenarios still possible?) on the cold snowy blast (another Beast from East/North some have wondered) showing in Models for Britain & Ireland Tue 19th and what we now think about our own LONG-RANGE forecast for around then. 
We comment TO SUBSCRIBERS in the Br+Ire 45d Dec forecast out during (today) 16th Nov.

The Express & "Free & wrong" Standard Models
My Comments on the zany Express piece were not advance judgements of the prognoses of the Gentlemen they quote. Indeed we DO NOT believe in assessment of weather until it has passed - It ain't over 'till it's over. And NO I was not dropping any hints about our own views on winter. I was assessing the Gents / organisations previous efforts which show negative skill and misled the public. 
[On the matter of records note standard Met's many forecasts for any event are swept away with the weather but WeatherAction's remain in our public forecast archive http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/pv.asp?p=wact46 ]
Some have made distressed negative comms, inc elsewhere, on my 'Free & wrong'* swipe at various long-range prognoses/models (*actually not my phrase originally). I mean as an observed FACT standard models beyond ~10 days show on average no skill [Of their 10 attempts at a forecast - eg The Royal Wedding, one, usually the last one, may be right (in fact for The Royal Wedding even that was wrong) but that also means many misled the public] whereas WeatherAction has consistent proven skill in SINGLE forecasts from 10 days, 10 weeks or 10 months ahead - see http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/pv.asp?p=wact45  Of course we are not always right, indeed we issue confidence levels which themselves have skill, ie an "A" forecast is on average more reliable than a "C".  Warmists, modelers etc who 'assess' WeatherAction by reporting errors without admitting the rest reveal more about themselves than our forecasts.  

17Nov Thought For The Day - Piers says

The WeatherAction Br+Ir 45d DECEMBER full detailed forecast is now loaded including the Subscribers only update about "The cold snowy blast or is it a poodle?"
Spread the word about the Great 60% off all winter months 45d inc 30d offer 

Piers appeared on London - LBC - Radio at 8am today. Thank you Kate for Great interview.
He and pointed out to the warmist CO2 propagandist also interviewed:-
1. This particular Typhoon - Yolanda - ramped-up dramatically in WeatherActions R5 period 4-6Nov and without that it would have been a 'nothing special' typhoon, it is nothing to do with CO2.
2. The CO2 Theory says there should be more hurricanes and Tropical cyclones and typhoons but in fact there has been a DECREASE in the last decade.
3. There have been and there will continue to be more very extreme storms as predicted there would be in the developing Mini-Ice-Age due to solar effect contrasts and the wild meandering Jet stream - nothing to do with CO2.
4. Temperatures drive CO2 not the other way around. The CO2 Climate Change theory is delusional nonsense and more effort should be put into forecasting and preparing for disasters such Yolanda. All Carbon - Green policies, taxes and surcharges must be scrapped.

20 Nov Thought For The Day - Piers says
Our WeatherAction Brit+Ire Subscribers Only update (in BI 30d, 45d, 75d and 'The Lot' Services) - "The cold snowy blast or is it a poodle?" - is proving useful and model maps for the weekend are looking more like WeatherAction possible pressure scenarios based on choices made 5 weeks ahead (as available to Eu30d, Br+Ir 45d, 75d and 'The Lot' services). 
For the Europe+Br+Ir full region the whole pressure pattern has in effect been shoved West (in a cut-off high event) by ~200 miles. Our R5 17-19th certainly bought some rapid changes and strong winds in places but overall the greater Westerly flow we expected was largely blocked. On the other hand the much heralded snowy blast for Britain is turning out to be much less dramatic than standard forecasts of a few days ahead - it becoming a relative 'Poodle' / or 'Spaniel'.
This B+I+Eu error, which is being studied further, contrasts interestingly with our simultaneous very successful specific R5 prediction of rare (for late November) tornadoes in the 'Mid-West' of USA and the formation+ramping up of sub-tropical Atlantic storm Melissa and other events around the world; just as Typhoon Yolanda/Haiyan became so deadly during the WeatherAction (SALAT9A) R5 hit 4-6Nov. 
Despite the observed reality of solar influences still the deluded fools and fraudsters of CO2 warmist lobby spin the tornadoes and the super typhoon as somehow evidecne of CO2 'Global warming' - as if Earth]s CO2 controlled events on the sun! They can predict nothing and are misleading the world.

Spread the word about our Great 60% off all winter months BI 45d inc 30d offer 



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See below for Typhoon Yolanda Comment and News.
 


The Coming winter (NH) of discontent for forecasters.
snow, snow uk, uk airports, uk airports snow, uk travel snow

Many will have seen the zany Express headlines from forecasters of no skill and my comment on it in The Express Comms section (copy below).
WITHOUT saying anything about WeatherAction Br+Ir forecast [Dec 45d and Jan 75d will be loaded on 16th] we can safely say THIS will be  a winter of discontent for standard meteorology forecasters.
Just as from a week or so ahead models failed to see the (short) early Nov cold + snow blast (even if less snow than we said might come) and as now they are in many minds they will continue to dither and often fail.
The reason is the Mini-Ice-Age Wild Jet Stream circulation patterns which will dominate giving dramatic regional contrasts and rapid changes. The highly variable solar impacts from our coming-soon expected 2nd (weak) sub maximum in this, double-peaked we expected, Sunspot cycle 24 will add to the variability.
 
The Express Link and Piers' Comm
 
pierscorbyn 10:05pm on Wed, 13th November 2013 - Comment:
 
"FACT: The Express extreme weather headlines have no reliability value when quoting the gentlemen and organisations in this article. Whereas they have been reliable when quoting our, WeatherAction, long range forecasts - eg for Dec 2010 coldest for 100 years [Heathrow pic above], which no-one else forecast and was confirmed; or the stupendous floods of summer 2012.
"It is irresponsible for any newspaper to quote any "Forecasters" without also stating an independent measure of their skill or success rate. For information none of the gentlemen or organisations quoted above have long range forecasting skill and indeed the Met Office's efforts in that direction have been to make "forecasts" which were usually the opposite to what took place. The floods in the Met office "BBQ summers" of 2007, 2008 and 2009 bear this out. Wisely, therefore, in this article the MO are very circumspect because they now know that they actually know nothing about long range forecasts.
Thank you, Piers Corbyn, WeatherAction"

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

TYPHOON YOLANDA NEWS
13th, 12th, 11th, 10th Nov. 
CO2 warmists lie as always, see just below this article of 10th


Piers' Comment on the Super typhoon
"Extreme typhoons like this - and deadly landfalling Atlantic Hurricanes like Sandy which hit New York in 2012 - are an inevitable consequence of the Mini-Ice-Age - Wild-Jet-Stream climate now developing and will increase in frequency this decade and next decade. The delusional CO2 theory has no role in this whatsoever. 
"These storms are solar-lunar driven events and largely predictable. This storm specifically ramped-up dramatically during our, (WeatherAction Solar-Lunar-Action-Technique) Top Red R5 Weather period 4-6th Nov and now the same storm is exacerbated by a second TopRed R5 period 9-10th. Having two R5's so close is unusual. This second whammy made the Typhoon track shift somewhat rightwards of standard models, just as our Br+Ir+Eu storm of 28-29th OCT did so in accordance with our prediction.
"Solar activity is generally lower during Mini-Ice-Age's and so the relative changes in activity and more specifically magnetic connectivity are more dramatic and with the generally wild jet stream make these extreme storms and superstorms more frequent world-wide.
"I warned of the coming increase in Sandy-type storms (and extreme Pacific Typhoons in discussion) in my presentation to the GAFTA (Grain and Feed Trades Assoc) conference in Geneva in May  
http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews13No43.pdf - slide 52. This point was also repeated in my presentation on morning of 8 Nov to the IAOM - International Association of Operative Millers - conference in Sousse, Tunisia.
"Our series of (trial) forecasts of Tropical storms have been very successful - eg for Irene from 12 weeks ahead - slide 31 in above Presentation.
"On this particular Typhoon one must ask why warning was, it appears, not given of the Storm driven Tsunami. Look at the pictures. Many palm trees survived even if damaged then look below them. The tsunami-flood dealt the death blow to houses and people who were warned of wind but not the violent flood it appears according to TV reports. These storm following floods are totally predictable and well understood phenomena and lead to destruction and loss of life unless warnings are made and acted upon"
CO2 Warmists lie again, no surprise
As expected the CO2 Warmist sect claim the super typhoon is evidence of man made climate change. This is opportunist delusional drivel which they just made up. They claimed many things in the last ten years eg more hurricanes USA and the end of snow in uk which all failed, now they just claim everything bad is evidence of their fraudulent theory and the Philippines delegate to the COP conference is making deranged claims which are against the interests of his people. 
The fact is this storm ramped up in a predicted solar driven Top red R5 period and without that it would have been just another typhoon. Or, do the Warmist cherry-Pickers think C02 caused those solar events? Furthermore we warned there would be more very extreme storms in the developing Mia wild jet stream conditions even if less storms in number. This is being confirmed. The biggest storm in the last 400 years in Europe was the tempest of 1703 which came in the later part of the Maunder Minimum Mini ice age. The warmists cannot predict anything and are holding back science. Their sect must be destroyed, or as Scipio would have said "Dalenda est warmistas".
Piers Corbyn (44)(0)7908734296

12-13 Nov BBC 'TODAY' RADIO 4 CHALLENGED FOR BALANCE
Note from Piers posted on Today site: 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/features/today/contact/?submission=success
"The Philippines minister on hunger strike is dangerously deluded. That Typhoon became a super typhoon due to predicted solar effects. It ramped-up into a super-typhoon in our WeatherAction "Top Red" extreme weather period 4-6 Nov without which it would have been an ordinary Typhoon ( http://bit.ly/Hwk9cf  ).
"Our UK-Eu Severe storm of 28th-29th Oct which we predicted 6 weeks ahead was in another R5, 27-30th Oct.
"Application of our solar-based advances in forecasting science can give improved long and short range warnings of extreme typhoons, and USA Hurricanes and UK & European storms.
 If the Philippines Minister wants to help his people in future we are ready to assist. The CO2 story is a useless diversion particularly bearing in mind that ALL the dire warnings from that quarter of the last 10 years have failed.
"Could I suggest you invite me on to re-dress the balance on this matter? 
Thank you, Piers Corbyn (07908734296)"

There have been a number of other articles reinforcing the point that the claim that CO2 drove Yolanda is self-serving, dishonest, warmist delusional nonsense, eg: 
Benny Peiser of GWPF: 
http://www.thegwpf.org/benny-peiser-global-warming-blamed-disaster-philippines/

WUWT on exaggerated wind speeds for Yolanda
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/13/more-hype-on-typhoon-haiyan-this-time-from-supermandia-and-masters-of-disaster/
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

USA Forecasts continuing great success 
- Subscribe TODAY (14 Nov) and also give to Yolanda Relief!


http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/northwest-snowstorm-to-usher-next-us-cold-wave/19896458

Great Comment (on previous blog) from Bob Weber On 13 Nov 2013:
USA Nov forecast on track as of today. Central low featured in Nov 4-8 forecast period developed Nov 5-6 and progressed with cold and snow into "Thick sandwich" as Piers forecasted. Nov 9-12 forecast appeared to develop quickly and early with heavy lake-effect snow, as seen for days here in Northern Michigan. Cold arctic air and dominant high pressure filling today nationwide as Piers forecasted. As Piers said, "Circulation starts to change later with higher pressure taking over in south." I'm getting tired of hearing from skeptics telling me no one can predict weather long-range. Piers is able to attract and keep customers for his forecasts by being successful. Too many out there dismiss what they don't understand without looking at it first. I'm working on producing regular reviews of Piers' US forecasts including solar activity. Suggestions are welcome.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

What are WeatherAction Long Range forecasts?
WeatherAction Long-Range forecasts are entirely different from all others.
They are produced using scientific advances in understanding predictable aspects of particle-magnetic effects from the sun which, along with lunar factors, change world weather systems in ways which have generally happened before. Through this approach WeatherAction can predict many key changes on the sun and associated changes in circulation, the Jet Stream and weather events with independently proven skill and unrivaled reliability (See Forecasts/ Accuracy button). Standard Meteorological approaches of forward projection of the present state of the atmosphere acting upon itself fail beyond a week or so ahead because they ignore external solar influences and so will never succeed.  

WeatherAction LongRange forecasts are not 'early' substitutes for short range forecasts.  
They are intended to help decision making well ahead of events for which advance planning, like booking harvest machinery or gaining advance knowledge of likely energy prices, is a NECESSITY - in situations for which short range forecasts would be too late.
For this reason WeatherAction does not normally give detailed Short Range updates because such are 'too late' for the use of subscribers; although for major events we do comment on how short range standard meteorology forecasts are likely to be in error on occasions. FOR MORE SEE AN EARLIER BLOG:

Past WeatherAction forecasts available in Forecast Archive 
http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/pv.asp?p=wact46 for ALL AREAS - Brit & Ireland, Europe, USA and 'RTQ' (Red Warnings, Thunder-Tornado & Sudden Polar Strato-warms in season, Quake risk) Aka World Extreme Events. Now updated to cover all seasons - including all forecasts produced Dec 2012 to OCTOBER 2013 (and many prior to that). Go, See what we said before anyone else!
LINKS to important Weather & Climate & other sites 
IceAgeNow  http://iceagenow.info/ - Superb exposes of CO2 delusions!
WeatherOnLine:  - ECMWF, GFS model movies &c (Don't take literally!) 
ClimateRealists (Twitter) https://twitter.com/ClimateRealists
1stHandWeather (USA+World) https://twitter.com/1stHandWeather
Wunderground Tropical Cyclones http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/
NationalHurricane Centre http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
BigJoeBastardi https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi Top model watcher & AGW critic

LINKS Latest Solar-Geomagetic activity data -: SpaceWeather.com: 
USGS Earthquake Reports  http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/ (Warning: overly complicated and 'clever' if you just want simple information, since it was 'improved'. Useful summary links have been discontinued)

Sunspot numbers and Solar Activity
Last 6 cycles up to now (19-24 inc) http://sidc.oma.be/sunspot-index-graphics/wolfmms.php
General SIDC (Solar Influences Data Analysis Center) Link 
Comments submitted - 102 Add your comment
On 21 Nov 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:

THANKS for Comms all === PAUL These are LONG range forecasts and therefore guides but in terms of specifics note we were the ones in Long range to identify the cold early part of this November ~4-8th when others did not. For the 10 days since then, relative to normal it has NOT been 'very' cold. This is mid-late November after all. PC
On 21 Nov 2013, Paul Calder wrote:

In response to Steven Glossop. I'm glad this website exists Steven, it's nice to hear the other side of the warming argument, but the long range forecasts are inaccurate. Yes, Piers is more accurate than anyone else out there, but many of the monthly reports are way off the mark. This month is way off the mark (for my region). My view is to make the whole site subscription only and offer a shorter range, less detailed forecast. To run my company I only need to know if it will be hot, mild, normal or cold for the coming month. When I'm told it's going to be very mild and it ends up being very cold, chaos ensues. I pay nothing for Met Office reports so don't expect much.
On 20 Nov 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:

PADDY ALL CONCERNING Brit+Ire November you should be on new blog. This one stays for info plus anything else until another new one re USA tornadoes & Typhoons is up. == ALSO Forecast accuracy and what WeatherActiobn LONG RANGE forecasts are about see new blog == Thanks, Piers
On 20 Nov 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:

The ground was still icy this morning, even though it had rained quite a bit overnight, min temp 0˚C. The NW wind was strong from the word go & even picked up some during the day, heard on the radio of ferry cancellations in the west this morning. Relatively dry morning but showers starting up soon enough, dramatic skies with huge cumulonimbus, more prolonged rain in afternoon, max temp 3˚C. - Philippe, Piers cannot always be right and I'm certainly missing the warmth he anticipated for just now; but in this wild jet stream age it is even more difficult to forecast than in so-called normal times. Even if reality doesn't always match his predictions in the precise location of subscribers, in broad brush strokes and from often far in advance his accuracy is way ahead of the mainstream. Weather/climate is not merely a mechanical affair but a living system.
On 20 Nov 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:

SNOW POODLES OR NOT? NICK RUSS. I think the point is that there has certainly been LESS SNOW than TV forecasts were heralding 3 days before it was meant to have come - and it's late. Re the snow we LongRange forecast 18d ahead for ~4-8th although less than we had said could be possible it nevertheless came when others denied it until a few days ahead. That snow also fell in Donegal see this Email II got from "B" (name not given unless he asks): Message: "yes piers your forecast was fairly accurate,we had snow on donegal mountains this morning which wasn't forecasted by met eireann, any more snow late nov or dec." ALL we are very interested in all snow reports to make more sense of what is going on. We have contradictory forces at this moment of R5 (tail of) push from West as well as more frontal activity in stuff from ~Nth. [NOTE sometimes in these situations we have said the Nth flow would "win", it depends on various things]. THAT R5 tail frontal effect will be less tonight 20/21.
On 20 Nov 2013, steven glossop wrote:

Hi Piers, Just a reply to a comment made by Paul Calder. I think sometimes its easy to pick up on mistakes Paul in Piers forecasts and ignore the regular times when his forecasts are accurate or very accurate and useful.. And to be honest Weather action always admit when mistakes happen and im sure learn from them. Unlike some other forecaster's.
On 20 Nov 2013, Ron Greer wrote:

The Glenshee road has just been shut, because of the snow.
On 20 Nov 2013, Nick, Berks wrote:

Russ, 'Lack of snow'? Do you mean apart from that which fell in/on Scotland, Wales, Dartmoor, the N. York moors, the Yorkshire Pennines and Norfolk (even some reports of light snow in N. London area). it may have missed you and me but there seems to have been more, and more widely spread, than that which fell on the 4th / 5th.
On 20 Nov 2013, Colin Kirk wrote:

Loving the thought for the day idea!! Lets keep it real and continue to seek the truth.
On 20 Nov 2013, Paul Calder wrote:

Much as I like this website and the counter claims it makes for recent global warming, which seem to be gaining validity, I can't help but feeling that the long range forecasts are harming its cause. I've been receiving forecasts as a subscriber since last winter. While it amazes me that Piers is able to predict some SEVERE weather events with such accuracy, I can see little point is subscribing to 30 or 45 weather predictions because they are, for me anyway, very inaccurate. I know nothing about predicting the weather. I do know though that in nearly 50 years on this planet I have learned that no one has been able to predict the weather more than a few days ahead. If you need subscriptions to fund research into global warming, fight the alarmists and maintain this fascinating website then may I suggest you find another way of doing it?
On 20 Nov 2013, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:

Wild, wet & windy start to the day, but now back to beautiful warm sun and wall to wall blue sky. A slight chill in the shade if dressed for indoors but its really warm in the sun. Extremely cold last night walking the dog on the moors. Clear sky right to the horizon. Startling change this morning with the wind and rain....... Looks like the Met Office are suffering from a lack of snow reminiscent of that which Piers forecast between the 4th and 8th of this month. Both forecasting weather, both being thwarted by the same wild Jet-Stream swings that are going to become the norm over the next umpteen years or more. Snow is already notoriously difficult to predict, but what we need is a warning that snow is very likely to fall. To say that 'it is' going to snow is putting your head on the chopping block, no matter who you are, I'm afraid! Piers warned us weeks ahead that heavy snowfall was POSSIBLE....jobs a good un!
On 20 Nov 2013, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:

The dark and damp weather has left Westminster at lunchtime and it has brightened up. Wind appears to be from NW judging by flue outlet down Pimlico way. No snow on the Downs so obviously not cold enough even at 600ft. Like the 'Thought for the day' feature.
On 20 Nov 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:

THANKS ALL == JOHNE, MARK, BRAD, STEVE useful stuff. Further to my points in 'Thought for the Day' above and your obs I think it fair to say that the R5 effect which we had thought would be a big enough push from the West to move this stuff East of course also exacerbates any frontal activity hence we have got thunder and likely hail in places and a bit more rain sleet and snow than the models thought from last night I suspect - although the High pressure advancing from West is suppressing it too and tehre is notably lerss than the talk of ~5 days ago === ALL Please promote - think of someone who might need it and tell them - the XMAS IS HERE NOW! WHOLE WINTER 45d OFFER Thanks Piers
On 20 Nov 2013, JohnE wrote:

The met office have now issued severe weather warnings of wind, snow and ice for much of Scotland and parts of the north west, interesting days ahead maybe
On 20 Nov 2013, Mark (30d sub) wrote:

Thunder and heavy rain here (RH1 UK)
On 20 Nov 2013, Brad wrote:

would think that is very difficult at the moment to forecast the weather with ison drawing out all the solar activity, should get a cme hit Thursday to power up the situation, and more activity while ison is in town. it is an anomaly. should be considered when understanding the work piers does. The direction we are going is mini ice age and piers is shouting it to the world. whilst world leaders are saying its getting warmer. the Nasa model of comets is snow balls which is snow, balls. I appreciate all your efforts piers and your voice in the world. Thank you
On 20 Nov 2013, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:

Cold and damp here in C London. GFS models show the LP cell crossing the UK today then slamming into France and Italy, allowing the void to be filled by a HP cell from Greenland which pretty much sits on the UK for at least a week. SE England will get a cold NE'ly flow by the weekend, so snow grains cannot be ruled out. Not looking like the Atlantic is going to make a return until at least month end, if at all now...
On 20 Nov 2013, Philippe (alsace, subscriber) wrote:

Hello Piers, I appreciate much your work and am very interested in it but i'm sorry to say that for me november's forecast doesn't really stick to reality for the moment. from 4th to 8th was rather rainy and cool but not cold; 9th-12th had some snow above 800m on the 10th so OK maybe missed just the heavy and deep snow and blizzards but nowhere on the ESevereWeatherdatabase are reports of such events, then 13th to 16th was foggy/cloudy, cool/humid not fine at all, since then not dry, bright and warm by day but rather cloudy, cool and humid and snow from yesterday above 800m; snow too in centre east of France (current orange alert) in départements Loire, haute Loire , Rhône Ain and Isère which could correspond to the zone on "edge of area with wintry showers" but that's not clear for me (it seems to be more than just wintry showers despite it could be snow events linked to elevation, and no such events eastward). understand forecasting is hard so be sure you have all my consideration
On 19 Nov 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:

Nice snowy surprise this morning, about 1cm of it, hint of winter, which to be fair, the MO site had been predicting it for the last 2 days but I'd forgotten. Overnight min temp -1˚C, barely rising to 1˚ during the day, back down to 0˚ by 5pm and back up to 1˚ by 10pm in the strong SW wind, rain forecast for tomorrow. Not a flake in sight a few miles further inland though. What is remarkable is the number of leaves still on some trees, the bright yellow Norway maple looks really beautiful in the snow.
On 19 Nov 2013, Craig M (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:

Last two from me. Steven Goddard has two rather good posts of previous weather scares....in 1921 & 1952. === http://bit.ly/I1F86M (worth reading all the paper clippings) & http://bit.ly/Q59uSc which has a brilliant polar ice scare. There are some great quotes for the next time a warmista (a.k.a. ambulance chasing climate vulture) jumps on a weather event as 'proof of climate change' . He also pulls up many tornado stories from the past that the UN agencies & MSM (a.k.a. Minitrue [see Orwell's 1984]) are desperately trying to make us forget. +++ Apparently the tornado outbreak is 'unusual' & is jumped on by the vultures as yet further proof (of nothing except their gross stupidity). Paul Homewood highlights this story from Accuweather (surprisingly sober considering their CAGW position but they would have looked very foolish in light of the data ) === http://bit.ly/1fe0XhN
On 19 Nov 2013, Craig M (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:

link for Gibby's model analysis === http://bit.ly/1fo4JCt +++ After a mostly grey few days with max temps around 10C. Night time temps were around 4-6C with two light frosts (Weds+Sat ~-1C) when the clouds cleared. Rainfall has been virtually non existent for the week, bar some light rain ahead of the front yesterday. Another light frost overnight but a cold clear day today with just the odd bit of cumulus floating by. High 6C now around zero & icing up. Ian Fergusson (BBC) mentioned earlier "some wet snow approx Cotswolds down across M4 corridor to the SE as it runs south, aided by slack wind environment. Critical PPN rates only around 2-4mm p/hr needed to help turn this to snow." Might see some white stuff then but we are at the turn of the season. The main question remains will the high hold (keeping cold+dry) or will it erode & we get the Atlantic back as Steve D alludes to below, which could turn milder but as we near Dec will be generally colder anyway.
On 19 Nov 2013, Craig M (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:

@M. Lewis this is from Gibby's summary this evening "All models show a deepening depression slipping SE down the North Sea then South across to Southern Europe on Thursday. Fronts associated with it will sweep SE across the UK tonight and tomorrow with rain for all and snow on the highest ground for a time. The cold front could be quite active with hail and squally winds ahead of a change to cold and bright weather with scattered showers, wintry in the North. Unsettled conditions then clear the South on Thursday with High pressure building quickly down over the UK from the NW where it then sits for the reliable future with dry, crisp days but with cold, frosty nights and the possibility of fog too, freezing in places...the weather will be fine and dry for much of the period with High pressure remaining in close proximity to the UK. " Not an Indian summer but neither is it a beast =. The MetO never bought it either. I'm going to enjoy it. Love frost & fog :)
On 19 Nov 2013, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:

Brilliant sunshine in London town. office hot and stuffy due to sun on windows. Frosty rooftops on the Downs this morning and chilly waiting on the platform. Closed blinds make it difficult to check wind direction - Heathrow or London City landing pattern. Newspapers: as I have noted before, the papers go for an easy life these days so spewing out an extreme weather press release fills the page for minimal effort. There would be no press release for 'normal weather' so nothing to print. Warmists failing creed: the words straw and clutching come to mind as the Warmists try to cover up the failure of the models to explain the 17-20years of non-warming (depending on chosen dataset). The laughable Arctic and Antarctic missing temp stations is just an extension of their dodgy technique of making up temps for where no data exists using the 'grid system'. Since all the details of how climate works are not known, even the base model before adding any forcings such as CO2 is not accurate.
On 19 Nov 2013, Craig M (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:

Quite an active weather period. Added to yesterday's comment, 'deadly flooding' & extreme rainfall in Vietnam === http://bbc.in/HZsm9d === & 'Severe Storms, Heavy Rain For Brazil, Argentina' (due Weds) === http://bit.ly/1bMCPzv === not to mention the system due Weds/Thurs in the BI will have a sting with biting gale force winds in what looks to be a mainly wet affair except on the hills ('standard late Autumn/early winter' is how this spell is being described but will quote something later). +++ X1 flare from AR1897 this morning (turning away from earth). May get a glancing blow from the CME. SSN now in the 140 region. AR1899 earth facing & looks unusual in profile.
On 19 Nov 2013, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:

Sorry, me again. The Jet Stream outlook has it going crazy over the next 7 - 10 days. At present the northern arm is smashing the UK from north to south, then it hooks around SE England and gets cut off before the northern arm pulls far north again. Meanwhile, more energy pouring into the southern arm, positively hurtling through North Africa and the eastern Med into next week. Basically the upshot is the potential for High Pressure meandering around NW Europe. The positioning of this is crucial. If it pulls away to our south then we get relatively mild SW'lies. Otherwise, cool/cold and dry...
On 19 Nov 2013, Dave wrote:

Im a snow and cold lover so it may be wishful thinking but in my opinion I do think we are well overdue a 'proper' winter in the UK for many years now and while I don't necessarily buy into what the papers say with the gripping headlines and all, I do think we will get a good old cold and snowy winter this year but for just how long is anyone's guess especially in the UK, I follow Piers and Mark Vogan, but this time I hope exacta is right!
On 19 Nov 2013, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:

Thanks Gill. Across the pond, the US forecast is going extremely well with the freak thunderstorms, giant hailstones and 65 tornadoes having swept across the MidWest last week. Well done Piers. It seems the US forecasts have gone incredibly well this year. Maybe it's the fact there's such a large landmass with little oceanic/SST influence = easier to judge? Back here in the UK, the GFS models are going for mostly High Pressure dominated weather with mostly easterlies and northerlies in charge. The Atlantic is trying to make her presence felt towards month end, but I don't take the models too seriously beyond 5 - 7 days anyway, so who knows - the UK could be in the battleground between cold and mild, albeit briefly...
On 19 Nov 2013, Gill 1066 East Sussex - subscriber wrote:

Thank you Steve Devine. That was a simple easy to understand explanation.... I am still gutted though!
On 19 Nov 2013, Mike wrote:

For those who wonder why the papers can print this cr*p and get away with it, it's simple... Their blasted IT departments block Weatheraction.com so they only have access to the less reliable of forecasts! Maybe they should block exac** and vantag* too?
On 19 Nov 2013, M. Lewis wrote:

Doesn't look like this cold weather is going to be a poodle Craig, as there is no sign of an Indian Summer coming along for the weekend! I won't get the sun loungers out just yet! Are you sure this won't turn into a rottweiler?
On 19 Nov 2013, Carl T 45 sub NE Wales ele 1m wrote:

Cold with some hail and sleet here in the coast, current temp at 07:33 2c brrrrr feeling wet and windy too.
On 19 Nov 2013, Ron Greer wrote:

Snow fell last night and a light cover remains this morning, so the colder air has definitely established for the time being. Yes Simon, that's three lame ducks they are quacking at.
On 19 Nov 2013, Shaun wrote:

Cold in South Wales this morning. Some snow/sleet this morning as temps hit 1 degrees. Snow on the surrounding mountains down to about 300m, hopefully this year we will see plenty
On 19 Nov 2013, Craig M (45d sub) wrote:

Sadly this current R period has taken lives. To add to the tornadoes in the US on Sun this is just in from Italy. === http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/19/sardinia-deadly-storms === just remember these events are not driven by co2 warming the atmosphere but cold polar air mixing with warm tropical air. The temperature difference is the key. That's why the LIA had such vicious storm systems. No co2 needed just a meridional jetstream. +++ An M7.7 in the Scotia sea (Antarctica) 2 days ago. SSN up to 283. +++ Thanks for the mention above Piers.
On 18 Nov 2013, Simon, S Yorks wrote:

Well it seems there are now 3 unfounded 'explanations' for the pause in global warming - all the heat is in the deep ocean; we no longer use CFCs; they forgot to measure the temperature in the arctic. If the temperature has not previously been measured in the arctic, why only include it for the last 16 years to inflate the figures? Or am I missing something?
On 18 Nov 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:

Bright and sunny today, though much colder than of late, a real nip in the air. Although the thermometer read 1˚C, there was frost on grass, temp rose to 5˚ max, fairly clear skies, great to watch the moon (full yesterday) setting this morning and rising this afternoon. 0˚ at 8pm tonight, hard frost forecast.
On 18 Nov 2013, spaewife wrote:

Well, that nw air flow has certainly chilled things down since yesterday evening somewhat. Intermittent hail showers during the day, and snow showers (some heavy) now falling to 20m in Orkney, satellite shows more showers to come over the next few hours, so for those of you driving this evening and tomorrow in N.Scotland, take due care.
On 18 Nov 2013, Tony Tony wrote:

Got the forecasts thx piers i just wonder that why whenever spending is down the papers always come up with sensational headlines either a frozen month or heat wave as ivve worked in retail last 30years ive always noticed this any thoughts any one ? boost the economy with some blatant b.........t l
On 18 Nov 2013, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:

With reference to Gill 1066's last comment, it appears that the High Pressure cell which should have been over France, pumping mild air over the UK from the S/SW was instead much further West and allowed the NW'ly incursions we're now experiencing. Unfortunately this subtle shift appears to have been enough to knock the entire 2nd and 3rd week of November forecast off-balance. Piers has commented on this in the Dec 45d ahead forecast.
On 18 Nov 2013, Gill 1066 East Sussex - subscriber wrote:

Not sure if my last comment got lost in cyber space or moderated. I would just like to know what happened to my longed for Indian Summer?
On 18 Nov 2013, Ron Greer wrote:

Cold air digging in as from late morning, here in Highland Perthsire. Noticed the Independent is carrying a front pager claiming that the pause in warming is due to Arctic temperature stations not being included! Did the Arctic not have arun of colder than usual summers recently?
On 18 Nov 2013, Michael wrote:

Hello from Japan again. Well things cooled a lot last week with temps getting down to -5.5oC last week and about +6 daytime here. It since warmed up a bit but looks like getting very cold from tonight onward. Maybe one more warm spell after that before winter should kick in big time. Some areas got snow last week, nothing major, about 20cm was the most for some areas other areas around the 5-10cm mark, so just a dusting, but never the less some early snow. We got some around the mountains here too.
On 18 Nov 2013, larkduke subscriber wrote:

The Wizard Strikes again. Minus 20, 6 feet of snow, power down, villages isolated. Just got a hold of the media script, Met Eireann are knobs, Kudos to the Wizard of Weather, last night whilst out in Dublins fair city, a sweat broke out, Mild and humid, today still mild, I suspect the next few days will remain mild. I was skeptical and curious , now I am a believer. All hail the Wizard of Weather. I Guess Models are nice to look at, but unreliable and change at a whim.
On 18 Nov 2013, Shaun wrote:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24981735 Seems the greens are miffed with the Coal industry meeting at the same time as them in Warsaw, sorry but I thought Poland was still a free country. Provocative? hardly, strategical timing, likely but that does not have to be provocative, just looking out for the companies best interests at a time when they are under fire by the AGW religion
On 18 Nov 2013, paul, bedfordshire (subscriber) wrote:

8 degrees and feeling mild damp and humid here this morning. Piers 1 - the rest 0.
On 17 Nov 2013, Piers Corbyn WA Forecaster wrote:

THE R5 - Pups, Shaun, Paul - It looks like the R5 effects are causing the models to change but they have problems seeing past an R5 so they will change again. Etna is very interesting. Yes there was snow in London in Feb, eg, and built a snowman. == TONY TONY Your Forecasts for Nov 30d and Dec 45d are in your access box. Go to subscribers button and type in your username (prob your email) and password and there they are under Forecast button. Enjoy them!
On 17 Nov 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:

The last few days have been amazingly mild, with temps between 4 - 13˚C yesterday and brilliant sunshine, no wind to speak of. Today was cooler, 2 – 9˚ and mostly overcast with a W breeze.
On 17 Nov 2013, Tony Tony wrote:

Well after all these years have decided to join up have done so just now.anyone know how long before i get any forecasts ? I am mainly interested in the winter and hopefully will get 3 months of cold n snow but very much doubt looking at all other sites
On 17 Nov 2013, Paul, Bedfordshire (Subscriber) wrote:

First day of the latest R5 and Etnas gone pop: http://news.sky.com/story/1169903/mount-etna-eruption-sicily-sky-lights-up
On 17 Nov 2013, Shaun wrote:

you must have been posting sarcastically, as it snowed in London earlier this year
On 17 Nov 2013, Shaun wrote:

@ pup, are you serious? the same models that couldn't forecast the Piers Corbyn storm 5 days ahead with any certainty. The same models with the same pretend experts who predict the worst drought on record which ended up as the wettest year on record, the models tat the Met Office openly admit are not capable of predicting a month ahead, the same models that chop and change wildly over hours or days never mind months or seasons. I am really poor at recognising sarcasm, so for your sake I really hope you were being sarcastic, otherwise I think posting that here in such a matter of fact fashion, would be wasted as Piers and many here have very little confidence in the models ability at long range, and with good reason.
On 17 Nov 2013, Carl 30d Subscriber wrote:

Just bought your essence of December forecast for £30 with so much data.That forecast for £30 is a must have and it is an absolute BARGAIN!!!. i URGE Everybody to buy this great forecast i will say no more but you may be surprised at what Piers is forecasting.As for this coming cold snap last week the Daily Express forecasted horrendous snowmaggeddon and Piers made a very interesting statement about this cold spell being a Spaniel as now all the computer models are playing down the cold spell and beginning to go the way Piers has forecasted
On 17 Nov 2013, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:

An excellent forecast for December everyone should get it especially now the Christmas offer is on!
On 17 Nov 2013, Paul (Bedfordshire) subscriber wrote:

Piers, I have to take issue with your Typhoon analysis. I'm sure Scipio would have said "Calorfanaticus delenda est"
On 17 Nov 2013, pups wrote:

Mild winter for the uk now all models showing this with no snow. Well it don't snow in london anyway or we England. Westerly pattern to dominate.
On 17 Nov 2013, Justin (sub) wrote:

Hi All, ref: Craig M...Well said that man particularly the third paragraph!
On 17 Nov 2013, Craig M (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:

...cont...for a moment let us entertain the "carbon pollution driven extremes" as true (I liken this to speaking to a four year old about tooth fairies). Let us decarbonise & see how the Philippines are effected which I can summarise as "a far larger magnitude of death & human suffering". We are reliant on Fossil Fuels for the manufacture & transportation of aid, people, medicines, clothing, providing heat & light (or power fans), clean water, aerial reconnaissance (to 'see' affected areas/GPS etc), communication, the heavy lifting/cutting to move the debris from the storm, to build shelters etc etc etc. So when we follow the argument logically, what the aid agencies who rail against CO2 are saying is they want more people to die & suffer unnecessarily. They want to deprive people of the help & support they need. They do not want to alleviate suffering but compound & extend it. They are ambulance chasing alarmist vultures.
On 17 Nov 2013, Craig M (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:

...cont...look at this chart by Paul Homewood http://bit.ly/1hMAs4W what you can see is clearly there has been a decline in intense typhoons during the 'warm' years, but a re-emergence as the globe has begun cooling. This is what we expect to happen with a displaced jetstream - moved not by CO2 but by solar activity - & it is the contrast in temperatures which drives the storms. A warming world is a more benign settled one. But climate morons will keep repeating bogus stats & figures. It Orwellian to rewrite history. It is also exceptionally dangerous when it comes to climate history as knowledge is power. Ryan Maue tweeted this in the midst of the Super Typhoon "Over past 1,000 years, Philippines have been hit by 10-20 thousand tropical cyclones. Don't be so arrogant to believe man caused Haiyan." Over past 1,000 years, Philippines have been hit by 10-20 thousand tropical cyclones. Don't be so arrogant to believe man caused Haiyan." === http://bit.ly/1ebgg7Q
On 17 Nov 2013, Craig M (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:

DEC & Oxfam have the collective brain power of a dead gnat. === http://bbc.in/1bPdyTg === I do note the BBC caution that the Science & the IPCC do NOT back up their CO2 claims. Therefore I believe this is either a) deliberate despicable, profiteering at the expense of those suffering in the Philippines from a NATURAL DISASTER. Using people's suffering to push a POLITICAL AGENDA. b) unswerving fanatical ideology-which means no evidence & no amount of suffering is relevant to the ultimate goal. Clearly these people threaten every human on this planet with their raging paranoia. Despite the wailing, there is no carbon knob that controls our climate, be it storms, precipitation or heat/cold. Mankind is powerless to control these forces all we can do is mitigate, prepare &/or migrate like humans always have....cont...
On 17 Nov 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:

Took the liberty of replying to the weather article in the Sunday Express in Comments as follows hope you agree with the sentiments. Another thought why don,t you get a forecast from Piers corbyn and compare it to these other jokers and see who comes out on top, Corbyn is at least right most of the time and is still improving. Way to go Express get some credibility back in you reporting on WEATHER at the same time. ---------------------------- Further to my comment below If the Express want a good reliable forecast then Buy a Forecast From Weather Action, Piers Corbyn, you tight wads, Boris Johnson Does as he needs to know when it may snow. --------------------------------- Ha.Ha.Ha. Had a good laugh about this article the biggest load of piffle How do these charlatans have the gall to put there names to this I will never know. It may be a cold winter but they are just guessing and hoping did I see this last year, they got it wrong then to. 6:39am on Sunday, 17th November
On 16 Nov 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:

30d=> 45d... UPGRADES are available under the Button on the Subscriptions page to change 30d Br+Ir subs to 45d aubs (which includes 30d). PAUL, This answers your question. Thank you. The upgrade in fact costs the same for 3months as the Winter months offer.
On 16 Nov 2013, Paul (Bedfordshire) Subscriber wrote:

Polish Trade Union Solidarity led 50,000 demonstrators marching against the UN's oppressive climate agenda. http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2013/11/poles-rally-against-global-warming-power-grab.php Funny how the mainstream media has neglected to report this (other than Christopher Booker), yet they are happily reporting the few hundred warmists demonstrating in favour of the UN measures
On 16 Nov 2013, Paul (winter-ish subscriber) Worc wrote:

On the subscriptions page - what is the bottom item - that starts - " BI 30d=>45d"
On 16 Nov 2013, Paul wrote:

What do you make of people saying chemtrails are causing these big storms lately. I think Corbyn is right about mini ice age
On 16 Nov 2013, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:

THANKS ALL FOR COMMS & HELLO + WELCOME NEW SUBSCRIBERS === AND ON THAT ALL please promote the current offer by Fb, twitter, Email etc, Thank you === Re Coming winter, STEVEN J, see Thought for Today (16th) above - I have said nothing and implied nothing in Express Comm / public === DATA LORRAINE L + Jeff GRENSHAW, Problems are journalize, shifting data sets and fraud. Reasonable estimates of data fiddling point to about 0.5C (some say 0.4C) artificial upping of official world temps in recent years through selecting and processing data sets and one would be surprised if CET has been exempted but detective work is needed on that. See http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews13No43.pdf Slide42 and http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews13No47.pdf slide51 . Another note is that the comparisons of adjacent ordered data points (apart from issues of 'selecting' data) are largely at the level of noise and so not physically meaningful.
On 16 Nov 2013, east side wrote:

Interesting to see, the MO (as per usual) is not forecasting any snow for the early part of next week. It sure makes you wonder what they base their forecasts on (!!!!). Something about wanting a new super computer? It's pretty clear there is a MAJOR snow episode coming in the early part of next week from Northern Scotland down c/w very heavy falls forecast in Northern France and across Massif Centrale/Touraine right through the week. A strong northerly artic air flow supported by an Easterly Ural-Murmansk peninsula easterly airflow right across central Europe has also installed itself this week. Snow tyres? YEP, will become obligatory in the next 5-7yrs, all over western Europe, (just as it already is in Scandinavia after November), and already became an obligation in Germany last winter when there is snow lying on the ground. I wonder how it will be explained away by more "global warming"?
On 16 Nov 2013, Shaun South Wales wrote:

@JeffGrenshaw here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomalygraphs I select 1981 to 2010 anomalies. Then if you select this year and last you can see for the UK has experienced a greater cold anomaly
On 16 Nov 2013, Lorraine Lister wrote:

Jeffgrenshaw- I disagree. The sentence is highly contradictory if you read it in full.
On 15 Nov 2013, Jeffgrenshaw wrote:

Shaun. Have you got a link for the mo graphs please?
On 15 Nov 2013, Craig M (Berks, 45d sub) wrote:

If I recall the the Express winter forecast was for it to all start last month, which was repeated again this month. One year ago we were in a similar situation with dire forecasts of the winter ahead appearing during Autumn. Piers at the time said they were wrong as we saw when the Beast from the East became a poodle. Piers comment was not about the winter as a whole- as we saw a quite average Nov-Dec but something very different from Jan into April. So take Piers comments on this winter in that light & remember that MIA type patterns can swing back & forth.
On 15 Nov 2013, Shaun wrote:

@Jeffgrenshaw, those graphs must be wrong, the 12 month graph over the UK region has shown warming as the main anomaly. If you check the MO anomaly charts you will see that the anoomay trend in 2013 so far there is more months that have been colder than there has been warmer, plus, the colder months are more colder than the warmer months are warm, and last year was worse, with a really bad winter and the wettest year on record including a cool summer, more than half of 2012 the months were colder than average, and again in 2012 the colder months were larger anomalies than the warmer months were, so when the cold has clearly been for longer and greater anomalies then how could they have an overall warming trend, unless you are fiddling your data that is
On 15 Nov 2013, Rob Horler wrote:

Steve, I watched the question time with Davey and he was pathetic, launching the usual personal attacks backed up by the Labour mp. I also heard the Vine show in the week when they discussed the same subject and invited Monbiot on to air his views with nobody to oppose him, no balance whatsoever. I recommend you switch to ITV news, far more balnced and avoid the frustration. The BBC NEEDS REFORMING.
On 15 Nov 2013, Steven James wrote:

Piers ! When you deride 'forecasters' with no science behind them, such as those who commented in the Express newspaper, are you stating that it will not be a 'horror' winter as they describe and they do not know?? Do you need a Phd in Meteorology to use the parameters you use to 'forecast' weather events in advance. As for the MO I understand their reluctance as they struggle with schoolboy science and days of the week. Perhaps you can clear this up and explain why the Express has got it so wrong !? It will either be a Winter of extremes or run o'the mill.
On 15 Nov 2013, Mark wrote:

What effect is the reported flipping of the suns poles going to have on predicted weather, is it increasing chances of snow in UK or decreasing it. Interesting times ahead I feel
On 15 Nov 2013, Rhys Jaggar wrote:

Another 15 - 25cm fell in the Swiss Alps overnight (you can find the data at www.slf.ch) which means that quite a few areas of Switzerland (the upper Rhone- and side-valleys, Berner Oberland, Engadin, Prattigau and the upper reaches of the Rhein) now have 25 - 40cm lying below 1500m. Far from people not seeing snow again, this is one of the more widespread early accumulations of snow of recent decades, with cold weather and the potential for more snow early next week. Nothing a strong warm front from the SW won't wipe out, but Swiss children are certainly continuing to see valley-level snow, aren't they?!
On 15 Nov 2013, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:

Back home, trying to catch up with everything, including reading all the comments. In Switzerland for a week, travelling out during R5 of 4-8 Nov, normal flight but extremely wet over there, big puddles in fields everywhere, continuous rain for 2 days. Next R5 period 9-13 Nov started on cue with very strong W winds on 10th, Low centred Channel/N France, nearly got blown off the bridges in Berne; 11th bright, snow down to 600 metres near Geneva (375m), powerful E winds from the same Low which had now moved SE, flights home ok. While I was away, there was apparently wall to wall sunshine with night frosts here at home.
On 15 Nov 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:

As I have to be careful with the old blood pressure, I to avoid the communist claptrap of question time guardinasta green claptrap of the out of touch so called politicians, BUT last night after the program the darlings at the Stasi headquarters "BBC NEWS"said Davey said we were all dooooomed because of sea level change Blaah, Blaah ect but said not a jot about lord Lawson's Views funny that.
On 15 Nov 2013, JeffGrenshaw wrote:

Some confusion on here it seems so please allow me to explain. Lorraine > Simply saying the tropical cyclone frequency decreases while the severity increases. Nothing contadictory there. Shaun > Nothing contradictory here either. The graphs indicate that there has been no statistically significant warming or cooling since 1997 ish which is in line with what the IPCC say. This doesn't contradict 2013 being the 7th warmest year. Just because it's warmer than 2012 doesn't mean this is part of a warming trend - its just random noise. If you want to understand where the warmness of 2013 comes from you can look at the third graph here http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/ It indicates that UK probably has been cooler than of late, but as you say, UK is tiny.
On 15 Nov 2013, Matt wrote:

Piers, if not CO2 what is causing ocean acidification?
On 15 Nov 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:

As I have to be careful with the old blood pressure, I to avoid the communist claptrap of question time guardinasta green claptrap of the out of touch so called politicians, BUT last night after the program the darlings at the Stasi headquarters "BBC NEWS"said Davey said we were all dooooomed because of sea level change Blaah, Blaah ect but said not a jot about lord Lawson's Viiews funny that.
On 15 Nov 2013, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:

Rob - who were the other panelists as I have long since stopped watching BBC's current affairs programmes pontificating the loss-making Guardian's views. I doubt it would be worth the effort with most of them anyway. Gill - once you have these pointless regulations you get little Napoleons from the council coming to enforce them - usually humourlessly - who won't like you pointing out the council's failings in the same areas. Do as we say - not as we do. Typically Orwellian - everyone is equal etc.
On 15 Nov 2013, rob wrote:

Did anyone see Question Time last night. Only Nigel Lawson and a lone audience member spoke against AGW .All the the other panel members and audience were frothing at the mouth about hoe we must stop co2 killing us all. I suggest we all write to these panellists and inform them of the truth.
On 15 Nov 2013, Gill 1066 East Sussex - subscriber wrote:

Yesterday we had our 'Environmental Inspection'. I feel a new comedy sketch coming on. The inspector is coming back in two weeks because we have algae in a ditch. - I kid you not. The neighbours ditch which is overgrown and stuffed with grass, brambles, soil and leaves is 'friendly' - ours is not - we have algae! My husband asked about the councils ditches and drains which are never cleared, and from which water always overflows over the road and causes potholes and freezes forming sheet ice in cold weather. No comment - silence. After being asked numerous questions about our slurry holding capacity my husband did suggest that perhaps we should all stop farming to produce food - then there would be no environmental problems, Sadly I have to hang my head in shame and own up to obviously being personally responsible for the world's current climate change problems, because ..... we have algae in a ditch! .... Beam me up Scottie!
On 15 Nov 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subscriber wrote:

Steve, Lorraine... Its these little blips of contradiction which always trip up liars. Try these 3 quotes from a literary genius: "It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt" also "Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please" also "If you tell the truth, you don't have to remember anything" Mark Twain... All relevant to AGW and climate change propaganda...... Steve, the name of that Hugh Grant film;"The Englishman who went up a hill but came down a mountain"..... Today's atmospherics? Broken cloud, sunny'ish, cool, no frost, no breeze.
On 15 Nov 2013, Lorraine Lister wrote:

Jim Salinger ex NIWA 'climate scientist' (now with Victoria University Piers), has been interviewed this week promoting his new book http://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/communities/2-minutes-with/9399228/Climate-change-threat-to-world-future As usual what he says is utter rubbish. I particularly love this bit "With a warming world, the prognosis is for less typhoons or tropical cyclones, but with more intense winds making cyclones such as Haiyan more common" Sounds like warmist double talk to me.
On 15 Nov 2013, Bill smith NE Wales (45d sub) wrote:

Isee that today , according to Reuters Japan's revised CO2 target reduction is a decrease by 3.8 % to 2020 compared to the previous target.This due to the halt in nuclear power. And that 2.8 % of this additional co2 will now be off set by planting trees! What a load of Bonsai!
On 15 Nov 2013, Hooch5 wrote:

Looks like snow for next Tuesday / Wednesday!!
On 14 Nov 2013, Bill smith (NE wales 45 d sub) wrote:

Hi Piers even though it is a R2 period it has been a very windy day here with NW wind , frequent and squally/rain shower temps sub 5c.
On 14 Nov 2013, Shaun wrote:

Because personally, I haven't found it as hot as it used to be. I mean this year was the first time in 5 years that I have been able to enjoy summer. Something is not adding up. Once again, I know all of this does not represent climate or the world but when you have a major AGW PR machine in full swing and a major media blackout on factual cold weather events it just makes these nonsense articles stink.
On 14 Nov 2013, Shaun wrote:

cont... that so many months in the UK are below average, again I know the UK does not represent the globe but I am sure the rest of you here have been seeing the same kind of news and data tat I have, for example, while the UK has experienced these cold anomalies so much over these last few years, most of Europe and parts of the US have had it much worse so that would suggest the NH has not had hot years. I know winter does not represent the whole year but we all remember the wettest drought on record, which again was not limited to the UK. I am also hearing similar stories in the south with Australia at present experiencing coldest temps for this period but I am also sure we here have all heard about the record ice extent on Antarctica, which is the largest continent on the planet, sounds like an aweful lot of cold around the world, funny they claim they are 9th and 7th hottest...
On 14 Nov 2013, shaun wrote:

@Michael, that article seems to contradict the IPPC admission that there has been no warming for the last year. (which is claimed could be due to the ban on CFC gases). Well something doesn't make sense about their article, if they are saying this year is on track to be the 7th warmest year which is warmer than 2012 which was 9th warmest year then this would mean that the earth has been warming as it will be warmer than last year. So why did the IPCC admit there was no warming over the last 15 years. So if this year is warmer than last year then does that mean we have started using CFC gas again as CFC was supposedly the cause if the hiatus. also, the UK experienced 7 months below average temps last year according to MO data, this year has already experienced months below average temps and we still haven't got through Autumn yet, I know UK weather does not represent climate but this article is on about last year and this year as being warmer than most others. So how could it be.
On 14 Nov 2013, Ruth wrote:

Thought I would look at your site after having read the express. Just burst out laughing when I saw your comments! I would love to know how they make their forecasts up!
On 14 Nov 2013, rob wrote:

The Express headlines might be a lot of nonsense but at least they might get more people asking whatever happened to global warming ? Especially as they promised no snow by 2010
On 14 Nov 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:

Michael this is the paragraph that said to me utter hype, on Nov. 6, the WMO found that the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2), which is the main long-lived greenhouse gas responsible for manmade global warming, hit a record high in 2012 of 393.1 parts per million, or 141 percent of the pre-industrial level of 278 parts per million. I read somewhere that co2 is not a long lived gas, prove to me that it is responsible for warming, and sea levels will have to speed up a lot more than a Nats whisker to cause harm to coast dwellers, another piffle and tripe report by a warmist org.
On 14 Nov 2013, Bob Weber wrote:

Thanx Steve & Shaun. The real tipping point is right in front of us: the total acknowledgement that the power driving predictable extreme weather events comes from solar-lunar action. I found Piers' work a few years after starting my searches in 2007 for confirmation of what I saw as electric weather effects (& complementary magnetic weather effects). His SLAT method depicts an understanding of these basic physical principles, that incredibly, the mainstream establishment chooses to ignore. After seeing the devastating effects of Al Gore's re-invention of government here in the USA, I couldn't believe he got so much traction for his false agenda-driven climate paradigm: the GHG theory of climate. Piers has railed against that thinking for years and has opened some eyes, but it is not just his responsibility alone. Let's do everything we can to spread the truth that Piers speaks, and illustrate why he's right. The scientific evidence for solar-lunar action is undeniable & overwhelming.
On 14 Nov 2013, Michael wrote:

I thought our planet was cooling? http://www.climatecentral.org/news/2013-on-track-to-be-seventh-warmest-year-since-1850-16738
On 14 Nov 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:

Shaun, yes I think you are quite right about the beeb they are quite beyond me, they think we are all a lot of non thinkers and should change the record, I think it would be great to hear from the guy in USA if he can give us updates. Russ you are quite right on all counts,did you see the timescale of this so called acidification 170% by 2100 so we will all be with the grim reaper so no comeback there then, liars the lot of them.
On 14 Nov 2013, Shaun wrote:

I agree with you Steve, would be nice for some US updates as the BBC seem to be mentioning non of the snow around the world but will jump on anything warm related. Bit of a US cold/snow blackout in the UK. Especially interested now there is a cold wave coming your way.
On 14 Nov 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:

Forgot to say I was listening to radio 4 yesterday 13th and in the news bulletin they said that Southampton uni will be given £50.000 to track a large iceberg that had set adrift, a lot of money, all they have to do is stick a tracker on it for a few pounds. P.S it would be good if the chap from the USA kept us up to speed with the weather he gets as it is of great interest.
On 14 Nov 2013, Russ NE Derbyshire subscriber wrote:

Ron, it gets dafter by the day. Lets make up any story we like, so long as it blames humans, nails CO2 as the only cause, and make it so ridiculous that 95% of folk will simply dismiss and forget the story. Try this load of poppycock for a taste of truly perverted double-speak. >> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24904143 << Maybe Mr McGrath should visit Wikipedia, which would teach him why the oceans absorb CO2, when they do this, how they do this, then ponder what must be happening, right now, to create this event. ... Also, have you noticed how almost every BBC programme has to have the term "Climate Change" in it's script, no matter what the subject. It was once only in the realms of the nature programmes but I'm afraid it's spreading like a virus throughout the whole BBC network. An environmentalist Mr McGrath obviously is, but I think he falls well short of calling himself a scientist. They teach kids this ocean science at 14 years old. Maybe Matt was off that day?
On 14 Nov 2013, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:

The Munro on sky being short by .75 or so, a few wheelbarrow full of soil and rock should do the trick like the mountain in Wales in the film which I forget the name of, stack that at the top and hey presto.
On 14 Nov 2013, Ron Greer wrote:

Knight's Peak on the Isle of Skye has just been de-classified as a Munro as it has been measured at 76 centimetres less than the qualifying height. This is obviously due to AGW caused by increased CO2 making the mountain shrink-----well that's as logical as anything the warmist religion says!!!