On 20 Feb 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Hear, hear BSpin, great interviews, thanks for posting this, here is the shortened link to it http://bit.ly/1hbOWXI. Piers, Lord Monckton, Donna Laframboise & Buster Nolan being interviewed, highly recommended, especially for new readers who need the low down on the IPCC. Monckton had the talking stick!
On 20 Feb 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
4˚C overnight, 6˚ by 7.30, high fog, very dark early on, strong S breeze, heavy showers, brightening up after 10.30 with brilliant blue sky, temp rose to an amazing (for us) 9˚, went down a bit when cloud moved in again in afternoon, wind veering WSW, but altogether a great day. We need drying winds! == @Rhys Jaggar re weather engineering: of course this is going on, why else would there have been a treaty against weather warfare in 1976? This includes Haarp, ELF, chemtrails etc. The web is full of this stuff, takes time to separate out the dross; fear mongering is part of the agenda, I've gone through the whole gamut. Whatever the agenda behind it I believe this is farting against thunder, as the now arriving LIA will demonstrate. How else could Piers' forecasts be so accurate? Unless he's in on the game – I think hell will have to freeze over before that happens:-)
On 20 Feb 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
B.SPIN: finally got to watch the whole thing. You have done all WA posters a great service indeed. Must say though Buster Nolan showed great restraint in not beating up Lord Monckton with his vinestaff !. Piers was immense amd like the new sharper image.
On 20 Feb 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
B Spin: great stuff from Piiers, but it shut off at 13mins and 58 seconds in--repeatedly----suspicions are aroused.
On 20 Feb 2014, Rhys Jaggar (30d annual subscriber) wrote:
Here's a weblink containing a description of a patented, man-made way to alter the Jet Stream:
http://www.itwillpass.com/nwo_weather_altering.shtml
I do hope global governments aren't engaged in this: it is specifically banned by UN treaty, after all……..
On 20 Feb 2014, AVERT volcanic winters wrote:
VERY STRONG Earth stimulation by solar electricity: http://www.n3kl.org/sun/images/noaa_kp_3d.gif?... Let's SHIELD Earth from stimulating celestial electricity, as done with spacecrafts
& satellites!!!
On 20 Feb 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
march received and understood, easy to read and comprehensive. Big arghhh from re actual weather ahead, rolls on floor and thinking how to go with the flow. Forewarned etc and def pinnining myself down re seed selectio nwrt that important and informative link
On 20 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
nice talk piers. Now the storms have gone it seems there isn 't co2 deathstar to kill us all after all. maybe its exploded?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qniy8aDSFLA
On 20 Feb 2014, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
Whawee what a forecast for March lets hope Piers is wrong again this month but I doubt it. I was wishing he was right for last month!
On 20 Feb 2014, B.Spin wrote:
This Is a link to Piers Corbyn on PVTV.
http://www.thepeoplesvoice.tv/windows-on-the-world-the-great-global-warming-debate/
On 19 Feb 2014, Harris Keillar winter sub, Edinburgh 150m wrote:
Was on the yr.no weather site just now and the blocking high over Scandinavia has produced astounding temperature deviations in Svalbard - 19 days out of the past 30 have had maxima above freezing and the average temperature is 15c above normal:
http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Svalbard_Airport_observation_site/statistics.html
On 19 Feb 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, overcast, actual N breeze, even sunshine during the morning and for a little while in the afternoon. Stayed dry most of the day but drizzly at night, highest temp 7˚, back down to 5˚ by 9pm. We had the visit of a mistle thrush which kept repeating the same motif over and over, rather unusual as we only have song thrushes in residence. All eyes on Sunday, when the next R5 starts.
On 19 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
maverick man's 6 month view of the WA reports [link at top] "His predictions of the movement of the Jet Stream and air pressure patterns are in the region of 75%. Sometimes he doesn't translate this general weather scenario into an accurate weather forecast for specific areas, because his forecasts for the position of areas of high and low pressure are slightly different from his forecasts resulting in weather that is markedly different."
"It is possible that this mismatch could, at times, be due to a lack of expertise in meteorology which means that his pressure forecasts are not translated into weather forecasts correctly. Working with the Met Office or other professional meteorologists might improve this."
in that case ideally we need more reviews by those who understand pressure charts and how that translates into weather?
the question is Meto any better with their bbq summer or this winters drier than average predictions?
On 19 Feb 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Thing is John, Piers tries to break an event up to give some indication of predicted weather on different parts of the country, but from several weeks out there are going to be spanners thrown into the works by all manner of mother nature's variables. The fact that he can time a change from bland, warm, sunny weather to a violent storm across the southern UK to within a day or so from sometimes months in advance is good enough for me. The storm may move slightly north giving me worse winds, or slightly south weakening the winds in my area, but the fact remains, he got the storm nailed. The Met Office only a couple of days ago forecast wall to wall blue sky at 8.30am. At 9am the clouds were already building and from then on I would say it was mostly cloudy with short sunny spells from about Nottingham to as far north as I could see, maybe Manchester and Scunthorpe, beyond that I couldn't say. But this was virtually a nowcast, just forecasting a few hours ahead. Its a slippery task!
On 19 Feb 2014, M LEWIS wrote:
CME hit Earth at 0200hrs GMT this morning 19th February. Watch the Jetstream closely to see how it reacts. Will it move north or south of UK?
On 19 Feb 2014, Steve,Dorset, UK wrote:
No i think it is a hold up at piers end probably because all the weather going on he is in a lot of demand i wait with bated breath for march cast.
On 19 Feb 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Part 2.... So Nigel, what is 100% correct for me might be 100% wrong for Ron in the Scottish Highlands, and also 100% wrong for Steve in Dorset. Piers forecasts are warnings of severe weather events but also usually very accurate times of big changes. He's not infallible but usually when the weather is more benign his timings wander a little. But the timing of bad weather is usually down to within a single day. The last of the sequence of the recent storms has pushed his burst of spring forward several days, but his forecast did come good, while the Met Office were talking of snow and cold and showers. The birds certainly thought it was spring yesterday....I'd like to know where they've been hiding for the past 3 months. So Nigel, just use a bit bigger brush when using Piers paint, and consider that the forecast details may need to be adjusted further north or south, east or west, depending on how extreme the weather event turns out to be. I hope that's helpful to you...
On 19 Feb 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Nigel.... the fact that Piers posted your comment shows his integrity, so that doubt is put to rest. Now as far as accuracy of Piers forecasts are concerned there are a couple of important points to remember whenever you use them to plan ahead. Firstly: He always gives a 'confidence' level say, 65% or 85% for that particular period. If you average that out at 3 out of 4 predictions correct 'mostly', then I think that's fair given the complexity of weather predicting in general, and the added complexity of the recent Jet-Stream changes. The Met Office by comparison are a bus ride away in terms of forcasting more than 6 days out. Secondly: The UK is notorious for it's dynamic and extremely complex weather systems. We have several metres of snow above 1,000ft in Glencoe 320 miles north of me, floods of epic proportions in Somerset 180 miles to the south, while we have had it just wet & windy with the odd frost..... cont'd
On 19 Feb 2014, M Lewis wrote:
I would expect the March forecast is taking somewhat longer, as it is difficult to assess whether the Sun is getting more active or becoming dormant. This in turn will have a considerable impact on the behaviour of the Jetstream and the resultant UK weather for March.
On 19 Feb 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
Hi Maria and all WA followers/contributors. It isn't just you, the March 45d hasn't been uploaded yet. Going on recent experience, Piers usually releases the forecasts a day later than he said he would simply because the acceleration of our dip into the MIA is plunging him and us into unchartered territory, which makes it much more difficult to make a forecast without taking that little more time.
Based on some other comments about accuracy, we should also note that SLAT 9b has been developed to overcome the flaws of 9a exposed in recent monthly forecasts, but some of the comments overlook the fact that Piers did send out an amended forecast to February for example.
Yes, I am defending him, but only because people need to know and consider all the facts before making a judgement. No one alive has lived through a MIA event, and Piers is a pioneer refining his forecasting technique with every day. He's the best we've got and the MO haven't a clue what's happening.
On 19 Feb 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
Is it just me? I cannot see the march forecast and I have a 12 month sub. I am not moaning and am patient but need to know if it is just me
On 18 Feb 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
RHYS: I remember years liike 1994, 82, the Xmas of 95 which equalled the record cold on both occasions. The long winter of 79 also comes to mind and the cold June of 1985 and the cold Feb, April and June of 86 ,but this winter is weird, because we have huge amounts of hill snow despite not having a severe winter. If we get spring/summers like 1985 and 1986 the snow beds might be semi-permanent in nature.
On 18 Feb 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Overnight temp 5˚C, overcast with fog drifting in and out, drizzly morning, dry afternoon but still grey, light W breeze. Reasonably warm also at 7˚ in the afternoon, back down to 5˚ by 10pm, damp but no rain. == @ Ron Greer: this blog is all I have time to participate in, and mostly late at night when I'm bushed from work; I had a quick look at the comments on Scotsman's environment page re climate – I couldn't muster the energy to get involved with these people, don't have the science at my fingertips nor time to do much research, though I've spent the last ten years waking up to many of the scams going on, which is why I support Piers with my money. The best I can do is to talk to the people I meet, and I'm sharing my WA forecasts with two farmers who are very grateful, for the rest I have to trust that reality – i.e. the LIA – will take care of the Warmistas eventually.
On 18 Feb 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK (sub) wrote:
Excellent Idea about setting up a small working group to investigate with Piers the meteorology side of the slat side of piers excellent science and it might get a hearing...might but we will see.
GREAT independent assessment of WeatherAction forecasts May-Oct 2012
http://www.themaverickman.com/#/weatheraction-analysis/4574723723
On 18 Feb 2014, Rhys Jaggar (30d annual subscriber) wrote:
Bob
I already am an ambassador for Pier's skills, but a few subscribers expressing happiness isn't what does it for central government or local government who need to cover their arses. Professional consultancy reports are what they usually use to do that.
Evaluations need to be dispassionate and independent. I think we all agree that there is currently a febrile atmosphere around what weather forecasters say and do. The best way to overcome that is to address the matter head on.
On 18 Feb 2014, jpt wrote:
Bob Weber, N Mich USA:
Bob: when global cooling kicks in big time - which I think it's about to - the warmists will not bat an eye but will blame it on 'Climate Change' .
They've subtly shifted from Global Warming to Climate Change already and even though MANY of the general public don't believe their nonsense I think that as long as the likes of the awful BBC and corrupt politicians keep backing them then they're sitting pretty.
You just watch them change from the 'warming' (and they are doing already) WHATEVER the weather it's CO2 driven according to them - hot cold dry wet - so they almost can't lose.
I think we need to attack them more on the fact that they just about get every prediction WRONG and have done so historically.
On 18 Feb 2014, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Ron
A similar thing happened at Glencoe Ski Resort in 1994. I'd just moved down south but me and some mates went to Skye for Easter and Glencoe was shut due to the lifts being buried!! The Cullin had loads of snow on it and the corrie of Sgurr nan Gillean had snow well into mid summer that year, which is most unusual.
January 1991 also had a great deal of snow in the same area, with much more lower down too. A couple of my mates had to have the military drag their car out of a drift in Glen Feshie after a 2ft overnight fall.
On 18 Feb 2014, john Webb wrote:
Piers. Can you give any more info re the slat9b technique and how this differs to 9a. Thanks
On 18 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
someones started hacking my email accounts and computer so be aware if you get any bonkers posts. it could be coincidence but it only started after i began looking into climate models.ie last 2 weeks
On 18 Feb 2014, Russ 45 day subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Paul, Bed's.... 1928 flood was wet weather, but this year it's deadly, runaway, Climate Change (ahem!). ..... A rather enlightening map from WUWT circa: 878AD showing the Swamperset Levels at that time >> http://bit.ly/1hruneg << Thanks to CraigM for that link.
On 18 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
the authors describe a 'non co2' model that they say is 77% accurate...http://www.climateprediction.eu/cc/Main/Entries/2011/9/13_What_Drives_Global_Warming.html ...they say its sun, ozone, aerosols, and clouds. They have given predictions till 2017...their about page ...http://www.climateprediction.eu/cc/About.html
On 18 Feb 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
The Nevis Range at Glencoe has been reported in the Herald, Scotland, as having so much snow that it anticipates staying open into the summer after having had 59 consecutive days of snowfall, with several metres generally and a gully with 18 metres ( 60feet).----Must be AGW you know.
Paddy, would be great to have help take on Slioch, THX1138 and Fred Bloggs in the Scotsman environment section.
On 18 Feb 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub NZ) wrote:
Hi Piers, The Feb RTQ forecast is still not in the RTQ box as of this morning NZ time!!
On 17 Feb 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, cloudy but sun coming through and quite a pleasant morning with no wind, temp rising to 7˚, back down to 5˚ by 10pm. Light rain started in mid afternoon, still going now, light SSE wind.== @Saskia: re humming backing chorus – exactly on the nail! Practically every public debate is heavily manipulated through emotional blackmail such as in “so you don't agree with 97% of the world's climate scientists?” quoted by DM, eliciting the subconscious response of “ooh, I don't want to be in the minority, not safe!” Trigger words/phrases are used to stir these emotions and the voices get louder, eventually drowning out all reasoned debate. And anyway, nobody should be under any illusion that, confronted with facts expressed politely or vigorously, the string pullers will roll over and have their tummy tickled; the whole set up is well characterised by Russ below. We have to get used to the fact that the official version of life is bogus and carry on ploughing our f
On 17 Feb 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA sub wrote:
Rhys: By the time winter is over, Piers' USA forecasts from Oct, 2013-March, 2014 will be evaluated by me in a video format, in a day-by-day rundown of each forecast period compared against a daily weather map, with daily solar and lunar indices, along with some commentary. It's a job. Doing an even better job would make it a fulltime job. Piers' ability is clear to most subscribers, so why don't we all be ambassadors beyond this blog on his behalf, sticking to his forecast skill. Many warmists don't want to hear about his track record, because it offends their sense of rightness, which is, as Piers says, delusional. Why? Their theories are failing more every day. The warmists are running out time as the rest of the world catches on to their grand delusion called CAGW, and to get their lockdown of energy and their coveted carbon taxes, they have to doubledown now before the long-predicted solar-induced global cooling takes hold and completely eviscerates their charlatan's position.
On 17 Feb 2014, Paul, Bedfordshire (Subscriber) wrote:
Funnily enough I can't find anything about climate change in this story: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26153241 "The great 1928 flood of London"
On 17 Feb 2014, Paul (Bedfordshire), Subscriber wrote:
Rhys - it is noticable how often scientific opposition to AGW comes from Physicists and Geologists.
On 17 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
MetO responds to Sunday Mail article http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/02/17/met-office-in-the-media-16-february-2014-response-by-professor-mat-collins-and-the-met-office/ ...its back to the co2 agenda.
On 17 Feb 2014, Justin (sub) wrote:
Hi Piers, I am unable to access my Feb forecast and updates (for last 48 hrs or so) although I have paid for it in the winter months special offer. Please can you fix this? I have emailed you personally but had no response so am trying this way!
On 17 Feb 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK (Sub) wrote:
This I did Not know and we should be ashamed of, With a staff of 11,200 and an annual budget of £1.2 billion, They still cannot do the job we pay them to do........ WHO am I talking about The ENVIRONMENT AGENCY.
On 17 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
the funny thing is people are expecting a standard of proof from WA that isn't expected of MetO and which outside of 5 day forecasts they would fail. In the WA archive are the past reports so its easy for anyone who wanted to compare the prediction with actual [like in the link at the top]. If they could have debunked it they would have by now? The thing is if Meto etc were good at forecasting they could have with their insider knowledge made a fortune at the bookies by now? I'm sure if the govt were to fund a research department for 10 years they could easily publish results one way or another. In the meantime Cobra don't know of extreme events until the water is pouring thro the cat flap?
On 17 Feb 2014, Rhys Jaggar (30d annual subscriber) wrote:
Another fair-minded article today:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/17/crises-in-climatology/#comment-1570161
Well worth a read, since it dissects clinically the six principle short-comings of the IPCC's approach to climatology.
The author is a physicist, not a climatologist and is not tied to the IPCC in any way at all.
On 17 Feb 2014, Shaun South Wales wrote:
@James. Piers does provide free information when he deems weather event is going to be significant to risk life and these opportunities are good for people who want to measure his ability. In fact this is exactly how I started believing in Piers. Last year Piers advised the public for free, that South Wales would have bad snow, he have my region a red warning over 4 weeks before. While the Met Office had a yellow warning 5 days out that upgraded to amber and then finally to red the day before.
So there I had my evidence for free and this would have helped any in danger.
However, I don't get an opportunity to test many products that I buy on a daily basis for free so again, why must Piers do the same.
It is PR that Piers needs to improve. He could make forecasts free but it doesn't mean he will suddenly reach the majority of the UK population, People mostly find Piers rather than through advertisment
On 17 Feb 2014, Rhys Jaggar 30 day annual subscriber wrote:
IN terms of getting Piers recognition, I think the following is required:
1. A rigorous documentation of the evidence linking forecasts on date XXX with outcomes on date YYY, preferably based on the period 2008 to 2014 for now.
2. An honest admission of times when forecasts did not work out over the same period.
3. An evaluation of how accurately Piers predicted the most extreme events (things likely to occur less than once every 50 years).
4. Whether Piers' accuracy shows any bias between months of the year (I wonder whether he is particularly good at predictions for December?)
When you've done that, what is required is a cost-benefit analysis in certain scenarios of the value to parts of UK plc of buying forecasts.
1. How many councils could have stocked up on grit in a timely fashion and how many roads didn't get gritted due to a lack of so doing?
2. How many dredging projects could have been completed prior to floods and would the outcomes to UK plc have been better??
On 17 Feb 2014, Rhys Jaggar 30 day annual subscriber wrote:
There is a fair-minded article today in today's London Times written by Matt Ridley, which shows that there are still column inches for those prepared to question the status quo.
I can/t provide a weblink, as it's behind a paywall online, but it's on p25 of the printed version.
The headline is: 'THE SKEPTICS ARE RIGHT. Don't scapegoat them.'
On 17 Feb 2014, James Tyler wrote:
Shaun: Piers doesn't have to prove himself. But if he wants to make more money and save lives then he does need to show that he can predict the weather. Until there is some proof he will be largely ignored.
On 17 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
Evaluation of Climate Models Wednesday 5 February 2014
Presenting author:
Dr Catherine Senior, Met Office and Prof Peter Cox,University of Exeter. this is the pdf http://www.rmets.org/sites/rmets.org/files/presentations/05022014-senior-cox.pdf ......and there is an audio http://www.rmets.org/sites/rmets.org/files/presentations/05022014-senior-cox.mp3 .....non of these caveats on the models are ever shown in the media. There is NO WAY any of the projections should be used as the basis of policy making such as taxation. it is entirely legitimate for policy makers to ignore the projections and they can ignore eco bullies for whom it s a religion by pointing them to the model validation reports.
On 17 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
Mat Collins wrote on the processes at the IPCC in a blog "For the projections, we rely heavily on computer models of the climate system" .....https://www.climateandus.com/blog/Workings_IPCC/ .....as long as the models cannot replicate previous climate with the known data sets [which may or may not be accurate/complete depending which ones they used-see climategate emails] then what use are the projections? Even if u peer/pal review them 50 times its still likely to be junk? Is all this peer review to give the impression its valid predictions ? So policymakers will design taxation levels on them thinking they are 'the best science'? It might be sexy to say we have the projections based on £30m computer models and satellite data and it was all peer reviewed by the worlds experts but it still would be junk? and explains why MetO model [that is used for ipcc] couldn't predict any kind of weather might be peer reviewed but it gave COBRA no useful warning of extreme events?
On 17 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Current (midday) temps 5.5 and 2.5 C, actual and windchill resp. Kollum gives a dew point of 3.9 C (was -0.7 C) and wind from SSE. Air humidity at 87%, bp at 1010 mb (+). The sun is out and there are just a few lazily drifting clouds coming by. Did have to scrape the ice off the windshield this morning though, quite a contradiction with the previous days. Nature is gearing up towards Spring, birds singing, more and more insects zooming ... hopefully that won't all be brought to a screeching halt by a turn in the weather. Finally, some words of caution: although I too am a staunch supporter of Piers and the work he does, let's all refrain from becoming just as ornery as the pro warmists when trying to promote Piers' work. That would, in effect, make us no better than them. Far better if we become the soft humming supporting chorus carrying the musical piece than a few off-key tenors and sopranos screeching out false notes. If you catch my drift ...
On 17 Feb 2014, Michael (Wakefield) wrote:
Open Question: Re seasonal models: Since the MIA is becoming more apparent in both sides of the NH continent, how would the likes of CFS, JMA etc model accurately on seasonal precipitation and temperatures? Since they don't have the data that Piers has and they won't factor in solar affects, should we even bother looking at them? I seem to recall big JB going for a cold Euro block for 2013/2014 based on these climate models yet we couldn't have had more of an opposite to this. So what could be in store for 2014/2015 winter? Well, UK winters tend not to be the same year upon year, so we're due a bitterly cold dry one right? Hmmm.
On 17 Feb 2014, Russ 45 day subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Thanks for the valentine offer Piers. Perfect timing! Weather-wise....... A fantastic day yesterday, Not exactly the wall to wall sun that the Met predicted but there were enough breaks in the cloud to keep the temp's up until at least 4pm. Walking pooch on Sunday morning we thought we'd stepped through a wormhole onto the Somerset Levels. What a swamp! Looked like everyone was playing some surreal game of countryside hop-scotch, leaping from dry patch to dry patch to avoid going ankle deep in water. This morning we're back to cloud, dark, damp, looks like rain. At least it's not windy!.......... Spaceweather.com made me laugh again. They predicted a triple CME hit and possible solar storm on the 15th. We got a kp5 storm with around 10 protons cm/³ and aurora looked healthy but with the bz field over 4° north. Two Earth facing coronal holes though.. Today they are saying that the CME's missed us so the expected storm didn't materialise....UH?
On 17 Feb 2014, Russ 45 day subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
All this talk of propaganda and having comments taken down and the fight to get Piers heard above the gaggle of Global Warming geese, is only childs-play at this point in history compared to the strength of War Propaganda. The government can, using just a small handful of public figures, get us to send our teenage sons to be slaughtered in some meaningless war, and actually feel proud to do it. Arguing about Climate Change pales into insignificance by comparison, don't you think?....... Do what the elite did with Greenpeace...infiltrate and take over...! These people plan their attacks decades ahead and have plenty of time to work out every conceivable outcome, so have a dozen highly effective plan-B's. When you have brilliant brains like the writers of Sherlock jumping on the Global Warming band-wagon, it does seem that the best soldiers are already on the opposition's team. If Moffat & Gatiss went anti-Global Warming, I'd give them 6 months before the real Moriarty destroyed them...
On 17 Feb 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK (sub) wrote:
We have power again, SSE Arived this morning and the power is back on, the guys who do the work are great they started their shift at 4am and were very efficient and cherfull, So the generator can be stood down the best investment we have made as the telly and things are still available internet to so can keep up to speed.
By the way keep buying the forecast,s from piers that way we can all stay ahead of the loopy MO and BBBC types, Hey Piers why not try to get on any questions on radio 4, Said with tonge in cheek, lol . Tell them you and boris johnson are great buddies that might fool the boobies at the Beeeeb.
On 17 Feb 2014, Shaun South Wales wrote:
cont... comes higher salaries. Otherwise what would be the point of putting yourself through higher education.
Don't mistake or compare Piers with the many quacks out there charging these days without the qualifications or the track record.
Another side note, the Met O do charge organisations for forecasts, not the public directly because we pay via taxes but some organisations pay the Met for more detailed weather forecasts so if that professional organisation wants to charge to pay the salaries of their highly educated staff and if you dont give up your salary... why in the world should Piers ever be different just to prove himself.
On 17 Feb 2014, Shaun South Wales wrote:
@jpt, ok JPT if that is how you feel then refuse your income and work completely free to prove what exactly I don't know.
A painter that sells art can still be a good painter so doing it free proves little relevant to your point. But I think you can see what I am getting at, Piers earns money from his forecasting. It is his job, he is self employed as a weather man not a hobbyist... but a professional. This is his chosen career and unlike many other weather enthusiasts he isn't just doing this on the side. People here are happy to pay for them as they understand this.
As correctly pointed out already, the MET O are not free but are just charged to our government and paid for by yourstruly and every bugger else. So why don't you go and ask them to all forfeight their salaries and work for free? They would laugh you out the door and I completely agree with people earning money in this. Again unlike many weather enthusiasts, Piers is qualified to a high level and with higher educa
On 17 Feb 2014, Ian wrote:
Hi Piers, the article in the Mail on Sunday was spot on regarding climate change. Are you able to make contact with Prof Collins or his students at the University of Exeter and explain your important work to him? I would expect that they would be very considerate of your solar lunar action model, as Exeter and Devon has been severely impacted by the gales and floods.
On 16 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
given the reliance on models there raises the question of independent validation and verification. The main test for any model is 'can it reproduce previous known climate'? The current evidence is no it cannot. There is an interesting discussion in the comment section...http://judithcurry.com/2010/12/18/climate-model-verification-and-validation-part-ii/ .... until the climate models pass this test why are they used as the basis of prediction and policy making such as taxation? why are we even talking about them? Would anyone use an air traffic control model that didn't work in real time?
On 16 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
from Meto website "It's impossible to point at a single weather event and put it down to climate change. Instead, we talk about probabilities. "....http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-guide/climate/what-affects-climate/extreme-weather .....so why everyone screaming about the storms in the meedja as proof?...btw who wrote piers wiki page?....http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piers_Corbyn....it implies the meto is the arbiter of good long range forecasting?
On 16 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
jpt-u think the MetO forecasts are free? lol. The current total PWSCG funding by govt is approximately £83 million p.a. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/what/pws .......
i'm sure if the funding was split 50 50 then u might have a point. i would have no problem with the govt spending 40m on setting up a research department into sun lunar based climate research. indeed given the evidence that is what they should do. MetO cannot predict floods nor droughts so no wonder COBRA and others are always behind the curve chasing after disasters.
those with no co2 approaches get no funding from govt. they don't even get a level playing field with them marginalized and excluded from any public debate.
On 16 Feb 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Clear as a bell this morning, 2˚C at 7.30 and surprisingly no frost, followed by a sunny day like we haven't seen for quite a while, temp rising to 6˚, wind mostly from a W direction, down to 0˚ by 10pm. A definite whiff of pre-spring in the air, also heard my first chaffinch yesterday, still sounding a bit rusty, woodpecker drumming more regularly now. Some interesting cirrus and altocumulus clouds today, took some pictures but am not sure whether they are worthwhile until I look at them on the computer (thanks for putting up my last, Craig, was just thinking about that today :-)).
On 16 Feb 2014, jpt wrote:
Piers, slightly controversial but here goes. The BBC are going into overdrive right now with the whole floods = global warming nonsense and I come onto this website (for some sanity) and what I get get is you trying to SELL your weather forecasts!
Now I think you are a marvelous man and bang on about you to all and sundry BUT I think that by asking for money for your forecasts you definitely lose credibility in the eyes of some.
Make the forecasts free for all to see how accurate you are and this will help expose the conmen of the global warming industry I'm sure.
Just a thought.
On 16 Feb 2014, Paul, Bedfordshire, 12 month subscriber wrote:
I think perhaps we need to chill a bit. Piers warned that an oncoming mini ice age would be a wild jet stream age. Mini ice ages can come on quite rapidly. The last few summers and winters, have seen the jet stream starting to get untamed culminating in the wild jet stream of this winter.
It seems to me that the mini ice age is coming on faster than expected and within 5 years the evidence will be there with clear global cooling. What we are seeing is desperation of the warmists. As they get more desperate they will make more and more obvious mistakes.
It is worth pointing out to them that they spent years saying that weather is not climate to anyone who suggested the cold winters of 2010-11, 11-12 and 12-13 brought their theories into question. Now they are claiming weather is climate in desperation.
And many thanks for the offer Piers.
On 16 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
matt collins twitter [@mat_collins] for the latest . He said "Together with the Met Office I'll be putting out a statement tomorrow clarifying the statements in the Mail on Sunday article"......... he also said " I said that the models don't tell us much about how the jet stream is affected by climate change."
On 16 Feb 2014, Lynne (sub) wrote:
Storm of 14/15 Feb was most severe of winter since Nov, in SE Wales (based on a not very scientific 'do the roof tiles clatter continuously for 1h or more: y/n?' test). Nice to see the Wiki entry on St Jude's storm is holding up so far!
Looking forward to seeing what March holds...
On 16 Feb 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
Three new posts on my site === http://craigm350.wordpress.com/ === 1. Floodplains – The Clue is in the Name, which looks back at some previous floods. 2. UK Met Office – Cheaters never Prosper, looking at MetO seasonal forecast failures (including quoting the 15% wetter than average for this winter) and some of Julia Slingo's 'any weather is proof' rent-a-quotes. 3. CLOUD PICS: Cirrus Uncinus and Sun Halo in Aberdeenshire, two recent photo's by Paddy (sorry for the delay there). === I am thinking of expanding the photos to include weather snaps we take - not just clouds. (@Michael, Japan can add yours too?). Just go to my site and under menu drop down is 'pebble skies' - link is there.
On 16 Feb 2014, Richard Pinder wrote:
BBC Parliament from 7.10pm to 9.30pm on Monday. The Energy and Climate Change Committee hear evidence on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Review. Sir Peter Williams Royal Society, Dr. Emily Shuckburgh Royal Meteorological Society, Guy Newey Policy Exchange, Jonathan Grant PricewaterhouseCoopers and James Painter Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism at the University of Oxford. The session explores a range of issues, including: Attribution of the cause of climate change, IPCC communication, media coverage and controversies.
On 16 Feb 2014, Paul Williams wrote:
Piers if you really want to be taken 100% seriously you have to get into the mainstream media with an accurate forecast good or bad.
Without this you will be seen as an outsider but that one accurate forecast when others have failed will propel you into mainstream forecasting. It may cost you in the short term but in the long term will pay massive dividends.
On 16 Feb 2014, Shaun South Wales wrote:
grrr the BBC nonsense doesn't end. Its PR machine is in action again. Repeating the notion of AGW causing the storms... which considering the IPCC acknowledge the lack of warming over the last 15 years and themselves described it as a hiatus, seem to think they can convince us that the recent storms are a result of warming. So are these storms a result of a 15 year time lag, because if it hasn't warmed in their own words, for the last 15 years then how has warming causs this recent intensity in storms.
Then I thought I heard good news, that the BBC acknowledge the changing jetstream... and I thought to myself, well yes Piers has been advising us of this for years, why are they so surprised. Then I realise they are making this out as some new discovery in America but worse than that they blame it on recent warming in the arctic. Granted it has been warming in the arctic but didn't it experience repid cooling this year? so how come the year it rapidly cooled that the weather gets bad
On 16 Feb 2014, Michael Killick wrote:
Hi Piers. I don't know if any one else has sent you this link but there's a very interesting article on the Telegraph's website: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10639819/UK-weather-its-not-as-weird-as-our-warmists-claim.html
The anti-warmists are getting more and more of a voice it seems! Keep up the good work.
On 16 Feb 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK (sub) wrote:
This is brought Via my storm generator....
this article on the WUWT site and is a good example of the EA,s hidden Agenda on the Somerset levels... the Greens Have the upper hand or so they think, This is the link.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/16/the-real-reason-for-flooding-in-somerset-levels-not-global-warming-the-only-pump-was-turned-off/
On 16 Feb 2014, Rhys Jaggar 30 day annual subscriber wrote:
The BBC embraces the jet stream causes of the floods:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-26023166
They say that it 'could be' due to 'warming in the Arctic'. I quote:
'"The Arctic has been warming rapidly only for the past 15 years," she says.
"Our data to look at this effect is very short and so it is hard to get a very clear signal.
"But as we have more data I do think we will start to see the influence of climate change."'
So the BBC is pushing the story to the limits.
Piers: what is your view??
On 16 Feb 2014, steven Glossop wrote:
Hi Piers, just been watching the BBC news 24 channel. And i was surprised when it mentioned jet stream blocking patterns on one of its main headline reports. I thought maybe just maybe the BBC would mention solar activity. But no the report was again in my view trying its best to brainwash that this was somehow been caused by CO2. Keep up the good work...
On 16 Feb 2014, Carl 30d Subscriber wrote:
I support GIS on the view of supporting Piers excellant scientific work and any comment i make on you-tube or any other site i mention Piers and weatheraction.But yesterday i commented on Natalie Bennets (leader green party) drival that David Cameron should sack any cabinet climate sceptic.It was put up by BBC England i made a comment and mentioned Piers and weatheraction My comment was strong but truthful but by no means abusive.They took the video down and removed my comment before putting the video back up
The other point i would make about Milliband is too me it appears all three main partys are on the gravytrain so if i think we should make it clear at the ballotbox and vote for Nigel Farage UKIP as they seem to be the party not on this gravytrain
On 16 Feb 2014, D.M. wrote:
This week I saw a potential politician and an ex-politician (both Labour) on Sky put down someone who expressed doubts about “man-made global warming/ climate change”. They both made the statement “so you disagree with 97% of the worlds climate scientists”. That flawed survey caught the headlines at the time and it was easy to remember, because the rebuttal showing the flawed results never made the headlines. What we need now is a catchy slogan, easy to remember, which gets repeated over and over so that ordinary people remember it and will quote it without thinking too much. Here is my suggestion, but others may have something better. “97% of climate model predicted temperatures disagree with actual observed temperatures.” This should be added in Piers' articles! Repeating it over and over eventually gets the message across just like the original 97% claim. The difference is this time the slogan is factual and correct!
On 16 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
from what i can see there are different aspects of the debate. 1. there are climate scientists doing research and making models and publishing papers some pro co2 and some against. 2. there are eco anarchists using climate science as a 'tin opener' to get at peoples wallets to 'break the system', 3.there are people fighting the eco anarchists with an alternative extreme interpretation who can be as bonkers as the eco anarchists.....i don't think there is any need for any honest scientist pro or against to be called bonkers but the eco anarchists certainly are and they are the ones spreading a bogus narrative backed up by media and govt which is why prof collins probably felt he had to enter the debate and pop the eco anarchists bubble who are misleading the political class, cobra and others. The pro co2 climatologists have been reluctant to correct the eco anarchist view perhaps because they see them as useful idiots to get them more money for research? Finally 1 has spoken out.
On 16 Feb 2014, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
The Guardian have just shot their bolt by saying: 'if the skeptics know the answer, they should hold their own international conference to explain it'.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/16/climate-change-deniers-put-up-or-shut-up
AS educated people know, this has been going on for several years and the NGPCC report has been issued twice in the past 5 years.
Porter's knowledge of the scientific method has also been dealt a terminal blow by his drivel.
They are panicking.
'The darkness is always greatest just before the dawn'………..
On 16 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
so prof collins view the storms had nothing to do with AGW [see link in another post] doesn't make it to BBC news page but millibands waffle that storms are caused by agw does? And people say there is no 'agenda'..... Even pro climate change climatologists have to make public statements to drag the eco anarchists and their hysterical statements back to 'the science'? How his statement that CONTRADICTS what the political class and their eco anarchist advisers are saying doesn't make it to top story while the bogus narrative does shows the bbc is not a 'public service ' broadcaster but the relay station for frankenstein climate rantings?
On 16 Feb 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK (sub) wrote:
I think it is a shame that the labour party are still wedded to the Global Warming Co2 scam and are trotting out the same old rubbish about we are the cause of this weather and should have more sack cloth and ashes rubbish, they are trying to tax us more as they did when in power more regs and not a jot of concern for the people of this country. By the way the power is still off with the trees laying on the ground like two beached whales not a hope of getting the electric Co SSE in this case to even reply to my tell call but a firm of researchers phoned yesterday to ask if SSE had done a good job as to my enquiry' needless to say i said OH MARVELLOUS Go Away or words to that effect.
On 16 Feb 2014, GIS Sussex wrote:
Can all of us on here who value and support Piers' excellent work please make an effort to ensure that the great man gets his well deserved recognition at every available opportunity. Thanks.
On 16 Feb 2014, GIS Sussex wrote:
Thanks Sakia, and for your added support,too, Lynne, Unfortunately, the bar stewards have removed your remarks as well. Apologies to you, Piers..all I want is for you to be given the credit you deserve! have just re-amended to include:
The storm was first forecasted, NOT by the Met Office, but by Piers Corbyn's independent subscription service, Weather Action.com in London, using his unique solar lunar action forecasts. Weather Action actually predicted the storm some 23 weeks ahead of this major event at GAFTA conference in Geneva where the European audience were given the following prediction: " N France / Low Countries and SE England - late October a very major damaging storm (75% confidence, to be confirmed.)" Weather Action produced a map which clearly showed 'dangerous storm' for the 29th / 30th October, which +/- one day includes the 28th of October, and in other EU states, the damaging storm continued on the 29th of October.See slide 53 of http:www.weatheraction.com/docs/WAN
On 16 Feb 2014, Richard Pinder wrote:
Part (2): The appeal by the BBC for more censorship of science, scientists and scientific debate, even with better informed politicians like Lord Lawson, does remind me of both National Socialist and Soviet Socialist attempts to win a debate by total censorship to the point of mass murder. I remember a Blackadder joke where Blackadder is advised on how to prevent people from finding out about his wrong doing. “You kill everyone in the World”
On 16 Feb 2014, Richard Pinder wrote:
Radio 4 at 8pm, Feedback asks, should have Today invited Lord Lawson to comment on Climate Change. This must be an appeal by the BBC to those who are calling for more censorship, if the answer is yes because Lord Lawson is not a scientist, somehow with the Green Party calling for a purge, I don’t think that will mean that Today will invite scientists such as Piers in the future. With freedom of information revealing that “the best scientific experts“ advising the BBC where environmental activists without a single causational or attributional climate scientist present at that seminar, and with BBC journalists and the political and environmental activists that they invite on to the BBC having no relevant scientific qualification either.
On 16 Feb 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
Amazing the Jetstream must have never ever moved before we put co2 in the atmosphere --- "New research suggests that the main system that helps determine the weather over Northern Europe and North America may be changing.
The study shows that the so-called jet stream has increasingly taken a longer, meandering path.
This has resulted in weather remaining the same for more prolonged periods.
The work was presented at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Chicago.
The observation could be as a result of the recent warming of the Arctic. Temperatures there have been rising two to three times faster than the rest of the globe." === http://bbc.in/1jnU1gX === If I went to a doctor with a chesty cough, runny nose, fever and nausea I wouldn't expect them to tell me any of my +symptoms+ were the cause and not once mention a virus. No way am I taking what they are prescribing
On 15 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
global warming did NOT cause the storms, says one of the Met Office's most senior experts
Professor Collins told The Mail on Sunday: ‘There is no evidence that global warming can cause the jet stream to get stuck in the way it has this winter. If this is due to climate change, it is outside our knowledge.’
His statement carries particular significance because he is an internationally acknowledged expert on climate computer models and forecasts
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2560310/No-global-warming-did-NOT-cause-storms-
hooray!
On 15 Feb 2014, Mildewed wrote:
I think it unwise to keep branding Warmists as Deviant, cretinous, insane, or anything referring to the sanity of people who hold an alternative view. These charges could just as easily be levelled at Piers and his followers however unjustified. Surely, it must be better to question the basic honesty of the scientific establishment who promote CO2 driven Climate Change as Holy Writ. They might be frightfully clever elites academically, but are they just as secretly corrupt as your average street mugger, and just as ruthless with it?
On 15 Feb 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, cold NW wind (hello, haven't seen you for a loooong time!), intermittent cloud and sun, warming to 6˚ at one point in the afternoon, 3˚ again by 10pm. No precipitation but sand and gravel on roads everywhere from last night's battering & deluge. == A friend sent this link reporting Ed Davey's asinine speech http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26165326 (I think this was covered in this blog already) and added: “from our perspective, this is all about agenda21/climate change /EU as the pathway to World Government. It is all connected. In the media it looks like a debate - in fact it is problem, reaction, solution - telling us how to think”. Spot on.
On 15 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
milliband " climate change threatens national security because of the consequences for destabilisation of entire regions of the world, mass migration of millions of people and conflict over water or food supplies," he says."....http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/15/uk-floods-climate-change-disaster-ed-miliband.....no where does the article show that the warmists with their models predicted a drier than average winter while those using nonco2 models predicted severe storms....i wonder if this is how ordinary germans or russians in 20th century felt when their country was being taken over by a mad and insane groupthink that can only end in disaster.....co2ism is an anarchist device for destroying society which they believe has to be smashed to 'save the planet'....i think one day we will all meet in the gulags for compulsory re education into co2ism ECO FASCISM. I only got into this debate out of duty to the country when i saw the truth being perverted.
On 15 Feb 2014, Richard Pinder wrote:
Lord Lawson said “Every prediction so far that the alarmists have made has been falsified,” adding that while increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere undoubtedly warm the planet, it is unclear by how much?
Can Piers confirm that the calibration of carbon dioxide warming for the 20th century is estimated to be about 0.007 Kelvin for the 100ppm or 0.1 millibar increase in CO2, using the “Unified Theory of Climate” which solves the problem of explaining the temperatures in all parts of the atmospheres of all the planets in the Solar System, including the Earth and the carbon dioxide atmospheres of Venus and Mars. If you can confirm this calculation, can you tell Lord Lawson. He could use it as the scientific dagger that kills of the carbon dioxide scam.
On 15 Feb 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK. (sub) wrote:
Hi piers Corbyn Sir, you are my hero, the storm last Night was as strong as any we have had since 87 or when ever it was, Two big fir trees came crashing down and put us out of power with a lovely blue lightning show for about 2/3 hours, Now we have the generator on the go so the heating and the freezers and the internet are all up and running all because you said back along that we should be prepared for the cold /Storm/ Etc....... Thank you i am grateful for your service vis the weather warnings etc..
Power Still out 12.34 Sat but we are OK.
On 15 Feb 2014, Bill smith NE wales45d sub wrote:
Wild night ,winds particularly gusty during the heavy rain bands. Still breezy and wet this lunch time. The stratospheric charts have an interesting shift late this month. Don't know what it means but the main blue shading shifts to Scandinavia.
On 15 Feb 2014, Michael wrote:
Japan 850m alt!
Hello Michael here again, with some lovely news. Well we got 2 metres of snow in 24hrs here where I am, which is a record for this area, and probably for all of Japan to snow that much in a 24 hour period.
Everything is buried, and it took us all day just to clear pathways through the snow and around our houses.
Looks like my prediction last year for an extremely snowy and cold winter have happened! We also have another storm due to hit us again on Tues and Wed next week.
NOTE: To Piers only! I have some photos that I would like to send to you showing all the snow that we got, if you would like to see, maybe you can add them to your website?
On 15 Feb 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
If you have studied the EU at all then you will know that there is nothing it loves more than a crisis as a chance to extend its cancerous grip over our lives. However, could the flooding be one of the most damaging events for them as Barroso is forced into denying that they are responsible. Excellent piece on Eureferendum suggests that this has got them rattled as it finally dawns on most of our lame legacy media that the EU was the source of the legislation that has created the problems in Somerset. In the full glare of the spotlight is exposed just one of the myriad of consequences of being in the EU. Booker & North's book wasn't called The Great Deception for nothing as Barroso has the gall to deny that their Flooding Directive - designed to increase flooding - is not one of prime causes. Excellent pictures on Euref of River Parrett showing how river has narrowed considerably. It's not just about reduced depth but reduced width.
On 15 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Looks like Piers is going to be right again, the storm seems less severe than predicted. Max. windgust at Kollum 74 km/hr, wind SSE, temp currently at just beneath 10 Celsius. Number of storm damage reports minimal.
On 15 Feb 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
Quote I found on booty whichemshould be repeated often in the face of eco facists/climate ludites/morons calling for purges based on their Intolerant beliefs. === "According to Lamb, the 13th century experienced the highest number (by some margin) of “severe sea floods” along North Sea & English Channel coasts. Although the climate across NW Europe was still generally benign (indeed, the peak of warmth of the Medieval Age may have occurred in this century), from the middle of the 13th century, an increase in ‘unsettled’ weather events has been detected by some researchers; the first signs of the descent into the ‘Little Ice Age’. It is indeed possible that the increased storminess was concentrated in the second half of the 13th century" PRECIDENTED. +++ The 'extreme' wet weather of 1914-16 makes interesting reading also === http://craigm350.wordpress.com/2014/02/15/climate-change-realism/
On 15 Feb 2014, Rob wrote:
All Scottish ski centres reporting again this morning that many of their lifts are buried with one describing the situation as fighting a losing battle,
On 15 Feb 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
What a hairy night. Locally it seemed the worst winter storm so far with sustained gusts all through the night, lots of branches down and damage to fences...however looking at wx stations it wasn't as strong as 12th. The real difference seems to be wind direction. Most of the powerful storms have been from a westerly direction whereas last night was south shifting to sw. I remember reading somewhere that southerly below levels of last month the gales are the most potent for causing damage even if westerlies are stronger in windspeed. Still very windy but no longer gale force and feeling quite cold as a result with temps at ~8C & dewpoints 4C. Large areas of standing water on the fields and although rivers slightly lower than last month the water is spread over a wider area. Going to take a very long time to dry out.
On 15 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
During the night the storm has created havoc in the city of Breda in the south of the country by blowing off the roofs of 9 houses in one street. Fortunately nobody was injured, although there was extended damage to both the houses and parked cars.The island of Vlieland has now recorded wind gusts of 9 BF for over an hour, which officially makes this a 'storm'. Nothing dramatic yet, though.
On 15 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Storm damage reports are starting to come in, wind is picking up a bit and a soft roaring can be heard in the sky. When walking the dog earlier I suddenly found myself off the pavement and standing next to a drainage canal after a hefty wind gust. Guess the boys will have to take the dog from here on out, I'm not built to withstand strong gusts ;-)
On 15 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
[cont.] And Piers, your remark regarding the 2007 storm; I remember that well, as you were 'the laughing stock' on some Dutch fora as well due to 'being off the mark' as when the storm would hit. To me it was the start of my interest in your forecasts, as I was for more interested in the fact that you were ABLE to predict the storm, not that the date was off somewhat. And you have already explained the reasons. Anyways, will keep you updated on what is happening here.
On 15 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Current (8:30 AM) temps 9.4 and 4.3 Celsius, actual and windchill resp. Kollum gives dew point as 2.6 C, wind SE with strongest gust so far 63 km/hr, bp at 985 mb (+). KNMI still has a Code Yellow, other site still a Code Red and Code Orange. Local weatherman has a specific warning for our area of "hurricane force storm squalls". Piers' post with regard to the full moon and maximum tide effects means that we might, indeed, be in for a bad one again. Especially considering my earlier post about the dykes being in bad order, things might become bad fairly quickly. I'll keep an eye out and send updates as usual. - BTW, nice to see how my remark about the Wiki St. Jude article has prompted so much response. Piers really has gathered some staunch supporters rallying the cause ;-) [cont.]
On 15 Feb 2014, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
{Me again} REPORT FROM PUTNEY HEATH. I saw the full moon riding the speeding clouds about 9pm. A sight I always like. Interestingly quite a few breaks in clouds even to the extent of the moon being totally visible for periods of some minutes whilst it was / had been raining. Winds not really very strong ~Force 5 but gusty so a brolly ok untill suddenly whipped. NOT those relentless winds of 12th which injured my brolly. Note Full moon is 00z 15th which means MAX tide effects with winds on S and W coasts so even if winds less than MO expect the sea defence attacks may be bad.
On 15 Feb 2014, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
Re HUMOUR POSTS We had one spoof post from Dame Slingo - Funny thanks - but didnt print because, and I jest not, some people do not recognise spoofs and take them literally then we could be done for libel. In 2009 (I think) some warmista lie tank published a 'scientific' paper that the Sept 2000 floods were caused by CO2 under some argument which was more meandering than the present jet stream. I issued a press release that in fact under a scientific study ("Fully piers reviewed") those floods were caused by the Millenium bug which has a known incubation period of 9 months. Some took this seriously at first but then it was more convincing than the CO2 story.
On 15 Feb 2014, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
ALL re TIMIMG. The point I made to GIS re timing of events is very important. THEY ARE +/-1d for v good reason. We apply GMT as a measure but really we do not know to within the time measures across the globe. Eg afternoon of 28th when the Oct28 storm hit most of England was morning of 29 in Oz. The period 29-31 Oct should properly be written 28or29 to 31OctorNov1. DEFINITIONS of WeatherAction +/-1d timing detail probabilities are given on p6 of ALL 45d and 30d forecasts. We spelt these out after malevolent churlish warmista sc** (no apology) went to great efforts to claim that in 2007 (is that ref still there?) when we forecast FROM 11m ahead a massive storm (which btw broke wave height records off Ireland) for end Nov start Dec we were "wrong" because it came 3days early. These people really have mental problems because say 1% accuracy in timing (3d in 300) means most MO forecasts are "wrong" because frontal position timings are normally more than 15mins out from 1d ahead {=1%}.
On 15 Feb 2014, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
OUTSTANDING COMMS ALL == PADDY yes I like your Comm re the mental frame of warmistas. == HELEN Yes thanks for sub & yes indeed you can upgrade to 45d at considerable overall reduction. In view of interest all note we have extended Val day offer to 4pm 15th == LYNE, GIS "(MY) STORM aka St Judes. Thanks v much. Prob is Wiki are evil liars. Further facts (i) We first forecast the storm (with less date defenition) 23 wks ahead at GAFTA conference in Geneva see slide 53 of http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews13No43.pdf
written for a Euro audience hence stress on SE Eng + near continent. NB it was strongest in SE Eng (Dover 100+ mph unofficial) & Low Countries (highest winds ever recorded). Quote is: "N France / Low Countries & SE England - late Oct a very major damaging storm (75% confid, tbc)". GIS V IMPORTANT. NO! We forecast weather 1st & APPROX dates 2nd. The MAP which shows "DANGEROUS..." storm is ~29th-30th, which+/-1d includes 28th, and of course in Eu it contiued on 29th
On 15 Feb 2014, Les Parsons wrote:
I see President Obama is going to spend US.$1 Billion dollars to help prevent Climate Change. Reminds me of the story of King Canute telling the tide to stop coming in. Once again a politician wasting taxpayers money and being a CO2 believer. He has named CO2 as a pollutant. Maybe we better stop fermenting to make beer, spirits etc., and produce no more soft drinks.
On 14 Feb 2014, Carl 30d Subscriber wrote:
Something interesting has cropped up.On youtube Natalie Bennet leader of the green party spouting that all ministers in the cabinet should be sacked if they did not agree with her green religion on climate change.I made a comment.The Poster was BBC English.I mentioned Piers Corbyn Weatheraction about him calling for a debate.They took the whole post down and guess what "They removed my comment completely but put the video back and probably remopved others.My sense now is you mention Piers Corbyn or weatheraction to the BBC and they are terrified of that name
On 14 Feb 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
Clear early morning, the moon low on the W horizon, so stars still visible, Venus incredibly bright, no clouds at horizon level. 0˚C at 7.30, fairly hard frost, no wind to speak of as yet, temp getting up to 5˚. Cloud started moving in by 10am, wind started picking up from generally as SE direction, sleet by 6pm, getting heavier all the time, though mostly rain. Still raining hard around 10pm, huge quantities of water on roads. == Regarding the terms Piers uses to describe the other side, there is no way they would be won over by being polite to them, their agenda is far too entrenched. Realising the deception that is really going on, as well as. cooling & coming ice age, causes cognitive dissonance in CO2'ers way beyond their comfort zone. Waking up to the truth can be a painful personal experience and lead to loss of friends and salary, so taking that step requires courage & integrity, which are not qualities taught in the modern education system.
On 14 Feb 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Wet early morning, then drying up before a heavier spell of rain over lunch. Wet spells with gusts of wind but nothing to match wednesday howling gale. Heavier rain must have passed to the south of London as problems on the rails started to appear. Flooding along the line from Coulsdon to Redhill and then a landslide at Merstham affecting the slow line. Tattenham Corner line closed by fallen tree causing chaos for passengers at Purley. Eventually supplied with a taxi home. Caterham line then closed by tree at Kenley while the Tattenham Corner line has been cleared. Lots of activity on the A22 at Purley suggesting further flooding from the Caterham Bourne. Anyone see the hilarious front page on the lass-making Guardian today claiming global warming will spark wars. No wonder only the BBC employees and council workers read it.
On 14 Feb 2014, Gordon Pye wrote:
There would appear to be strong historic lessons regarding the Co2 Scam and comparing the Cholera epidemics in London during the " great stink " which closed parliament as the Thames was so polluted ! Co2 warming like the " Miasma " was the same with the London Cholera epidemics in the 19th Century. It was the contaminated water supply all along, not foul smells as thought by the government experts. At least the top guy in question had the honour to admit that he had been wrong and everything he had believed was based on a falsehood !
On 14 Feb 2014, Jan wrote:
Really stormy in Fareham tonight the wind is horrendous constant battering accompanied with rain. Stay safe everyone.
On 14 Feb 2014, Lorraine wrote:
Occ sub) I am getting used to this westher now one Atlantic storm after another gusting gale force Red warning again tonight Channel Islands
On 14 Feb 2014, Lynne (sub) wrote:
Hi GIS Sussex, have amended the St Jude's wiki to strengthen the comment about Piers first forecasting this storm 6 weeks in advance. Suggest we all monitor this wiki and revise to ensure Piers' contribution is recognised.
Regarding words & messaging, it would be great if WA could get some additional expertise with PR and communications to 'showcase' its successes. Some compartmentalisation of the information on the site, to tailor it for different audiences would be great. Could Nigel Lawson help?
I like richard's suggestion of publishing forecast vs. actual. Why not do this regularly every month? I note actual obs on my pdf every day unless I'm working away. I'm happy to send these in every month to compile with others observations to show how accurate WA's forecasts are!
On 14 Feb 2014, Jocky Scot wrote:
Just witnessed the strangest lightning I have ever seen over dundee. A huge blue ball appeared just above the hills. It was as if it was suspended in mid air before it exploded in all directions.
On 14 Feb 2014, danny wrote:
The best interview that i have seen on Sky News
allthough only a short one, about the floods, it was of a man in Surrey saying they are sick of the Gov and environment agency, and their lack of listening over the years, that him and all the neighbours in his road that have been flooded will
not be paying their council tax, and they can go and whistle for it, lets hope it catches on, a line needs to be drawn somewhere, my heart and best wihes go out to all those affected by the floods. The Gov have also had offers from Piers
Corbyn, who really can help, and they have totally
blanked him.. AS THAT FARMER SAID UP ON THE SOMMERSET LEVELS, THEY NEED HORSE WHIPPING..
JUST A THOUGHT, IF ANYBODY LIVES IN OR NEAR THE FLOOD AREAS CANT THEY PRINT UP
SOME FLYERS WITH THE WORDS
IF YOU WANT TO KNOW THE TRUTH
VISIT WEATHERACTION
On 14 Feb 2014, Helen (Co. Leitrim, Ireland, subscriber) wrote:
Thanks for your generous discount on the 30 day subs, Piers. I seized the opportunity yesterday evening in case my broadband went down again. So now I've guaranteed forecasts for 12 months, and maybe can upgrade to the 45 day later. Well Co. Leitrim has so far got off very lightly in these storms compared with down south, but the Shannon up here is very close to flooding, and levels are being monitored hourly. There are a lot of floodplain developments in Leitrim (from the 'Celtic Tiger' era), some of which suffered badly from flooding in autumn 2010. I'm very glad I live in an upland area... A miserable day today - a mixture of wind, snow, rain and sleet, about 0.5 C, down to -1 C. Accuweather says Realfeel was -8 C, and I can believe it. We had about 2 cm snow Tuesday evening. The storm on Wed wasn't too bad up here, but it knocked out the broadband transmitter on the local mountain. I'm looking forward to Brian Fagan's book on the 'The Little Ice Age' which I've just ordered.
On 14 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Something is coming. Not even 4 PM and there's already a windchill factor of below freezing in the SW part of the country. Meanwhile, the Alarm Center (alarm.noodweercentrale.nl) has issued a Code Red for the whole coastal area, just including our region at the very edge (border area Fryslân and Groningen provinces). Code Orange for almost the whole country, with Code Yellow for the eastern most regions.
On 14 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
it might help our 'real climate' scientist friends if any forecast once out of date say after 6months was published with the subsequent reality of what happened. Piers does often mention his method in interviews and with a bit of reverse engineering its not going to be hard to work out....one might wonder why those who dismiss his method do not subscribe then seek to prove it wrong by publishing the expected versus the outcome although to be honest they would have to give the official forecasts too like the MetO drier winter one. Its not enough if Piers gets it wrong they have to prove they were right more often which given the number of news stories about the co2 predictions hardly seems likely. The problem for them is to take Piers on they cannot prove they are any better. So if Pier method is 'chicken entrails' then so are theirs? the only difference Piers is not asking us all to be taxed on all our bills to 'save the planet' which we know is their 'method' to 'break the system'
On 14 Feb 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK (sub) wrote:
Quote of the day..... The environment agency said according to the BBC reporter that the rain falling now would feed into the flood water already here. And they call us flat earthers.
On 14 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Good on ya, GIS! Fingers crossed this will stay ;-)
On 14 Feb 2014, GIS Sussex wrote:
Well, since my last post I 'amended' the Wikipedia page on the St Jude's storm. It has since been 'corrected' by a warmista, BUT at least a reference to WeatherAction has been retained..for the moment at least:
The storm was claimed to have been first forecasted 6 weeks prior to the event by Piers Corbyn's Weatheraction.com subscriber weather forecasting service, using Weather Action's unique Solar-Lunar Action Technique. However this forecast actually shows the wind prediction for the period 24th-28th October was "NNW’ly strong, mod then slack becoming SE’ly light" An update 2 weeks later was unchanged for winds for this period.The forecast can be seen at http://www.weatheraction.com/resource/data/wact1/docs/BI%201310OCT%2030d_as45d_relOct1.pdf The Met Office, by contrast, and in spite of its supercomputer modelling only managed to forecast the storm four days before the storm formed.[24]
On 14 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
regarding the public debate.....the problem the 'real climate' scientists have with Piers and those like him is they see it as 'chicken entrails' with no published and tested methodology so not to be trusted no matter how accurate the predictions. They will always remove anything to do with it claiming its pseudo science. They would rather have a published and tested methodology that predicts nothing than look at evidence of proven accurate prediction months in advance-something they cannot do and claim no one else can so why waste time even looking into it. I can understand them wanting a published and tested methodology but that does not explain the fanaticism to clinging to false beliefs that have proven nothing.
On 14 Feb 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK (sub) wrote:
When you think about the comrades of the green party the saying Green on the outside Red on the inside is quite correct.
On 14 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Current (2:30 PM) temps 7.1 and 2.9 Celsius, actual and windchill resp. Kollum reports a dew point of 3.2 C, 92% hum. and bp of 1000.0 mb. Skies are overcast but the sun is peeping through still. - GIS: I suspect any contribution I would make with regard to Piers wold be taken down as well. The fanaticism of these people is downright scary! The vehemence with which non-CO2 causes for GW/GC are 'debunked', and what lengths some people are willing to go to in this debunking is simply mind boggling. I have mentioned the book 'Fallen Angels' by Niven, Pournelle and Flynn several times now, and I have managed to find a - free and sloppy - RTF version which people can scout through without first having to buy the book (which, of course, would be the better option). I don't feel bad supplying the link because publisher Jim Baen initially supplied a free e-book as well. http://en.bookfi.org/book/263706 Also read the WIki article. http://bit.ly/1f0HuzE You may find it interesting ;-)
On 14 Feb 2014, Russ 45 day subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Ron......... "I live in the Grampians, so can see( when they road is not blocked) some of this first hand.".......... envy...envy...envy...envy....envyuuuuuuus!.................. Weatherwise? More rain, wind... mud...rain and more rain. Just glad we don't live on a flood plain!!........ As for the warmists... they are now using the term 'climate change' correctly. The climate 'is' undergoing a dramatic change. Yes it's going to get worse. Yes we need to urgently plan for it....but....it has nothing to do with CO2. The scientists who say that 'it is' are not deluded, far from it. They are very smart as they cash their annual cheques and pop out for an afternoon drive in their Aston's... I fear that the propaganda machine is already too powerful to overcome and must be cleverly undermined. Infiltration and sabotage are the order of the day! They do fear failure as the Aston would have to go...so are now putting up a dirty fight to make sure they keep winning the propaganda war...
On 14 Feb 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
What a great result for my party in the Wythenshawe and Sale East by election - the Makes no Difference so Not Bothered Party - 61,034 votes (71.8%). Crawling home in second and somehow getting elected is Labour with just 13,261 votes (15.6%). Of the 24,024 votes cast, an astonishing 10,141 were postal votes from people too uninspired enough to get off their butt to vote. Given Miss High-Horse of the Green Party and her demands for purges, the Greens got just 748 votes (0.9%) - only 3 times the Monster Raving Loony Party (yes, I know....hard to tell the difference). However much it pains me to say that I agree with union bully Bob Crow, but when questioned about the miserable number of his members that actually voted for the recent tube strike he responded - 'what next thresholds for votes for MPs and councillors?' Yes, Bob, good idea so that an MP with a pathetic 15.6% of the electorate voting for him doesn't get to Parliament.
On 14 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
@GIS....i have long thought wiki is 'owned' by warmists mainly because they keep gleefully linking to it to 'prove' some point or other. They would never do that if they were not sure it was ' co2 safe'......
On 14 Feb 2014, Rhys Jaggar 30 day annual subscriber wrote:
One does have to say that those who demand purges of those who disagree with them must surely accept a pretty brutal and permanent punishment to be imposed on themselves in they are wrong??
I mean: if you are so sure you are right that you will ban all who see things differently, then if you are wrong, you need to face a lifetime ban from ever working again in any position of responsibility. So that will be an interesting public pledge for the likes of David Shukman, Roger Harrabin et al, won't it?
Nathalie Bennett is not a duly elected member of Parliament and thus has absolutely no right to demand what she is demanding.
The BBC is funded by taxpayers' money and hence has no right holding totalitarian positions unless specifically authorised not by the BBC employees but by the taxpayer.
The eco-fascists (for that is what they are) have confirmed their unsuitability for office.
They claim infallibility like the Pope. They might do better to gain authority through the b
On 14 Feb 2014, GIS Sussex wrote:
Apologies to Bob Weber for my previous post about your link for 'The Sunspot Mystery.' Fascinating and thank you for posting that, Bob. Saskia: You are so right to post about Wikipedia's great omission to mention Pier's correct forecasting of the St Jude's storm. I have 'amended' (perhaps I have not gone about it in the correct way, admittedly, but so incensed am I that Piers is not getting anything like the recognition or credit he deserves for his good work!) the article at least half a dozen times with references and proof of Piers' astounding St Jude's storm forecast, but each time it gets deleted by the warmistas, usually within just a couple of hours (!) who are obviously trying to erase anything which may possibly challenge their Co2 climate change theories.
On 14 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
Dr. Theodor Landscheidt of Schroeter Institute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity posted this paper on sun cycles....."the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth. This forecast should prove skillful as other long-range forecasts of climate phenomena, based on cycles in the sun's orbital motion, have turned out correct as for instance the prediction of the last three El Ninos years before the respective event."......http://www.schulphysik.de/klima/landscheidt/iceage.htm......
On 14 Feb 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
True 'green' colours on show now. I think we are supposed to say 'yes comrade' --- "11:49: Ross Hawkins Political correspondent, BBC News The Greens have called for a purge of senior government advisers and ministers who do not share the party's views on climate change. The Green Party says any senior adviser who refused to accept "the scientific consensus on climate change" should be sacked. Leader Natalie Bennett said: "We also can't have anyone in the cabinet who is denying the realities that we're facing with climate change." === http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26184648 ===
On 14 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
A growing group of activists, ecologists, authors and scientists are saying only a serious economic crash could save us from climate doom.”
CRASH ON DEMAND – Do we need to break the system to save the climate? Permaculture co-founder David Holmgren says “YES”, in this rare radio interview.
http://www.ecoshock.net/downloads/ES_140205_Show.mp3
- http://www.ecoshock.org/ ......i guess no words need to be added. Their fanaticism speaks for itself?
On 14 Feb 2014, Kevster wrote:
Latest model runs have the low at midnight slightly deeper and the winds therefore slightly stronger. Be careful on your way home from the pub those on the south coast!!
On 14 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
one of the advantages of looking at sun etc is that it can include volcanism and we have a reported volcano in java. The official view of co2ers is any volcanism linked to sunspots is pure coincidence but it is an associated phenomena reported in previous minima.. i'm still trying to get my head round the view that co2ers say any cooling will have no effect given the expected 95% certain 4 o C rise they have projected from models that said this winter will be drier than average. The point the co2ers have to answer is if their understanding of the climate is 95% certain why did they predict the opposite of the weather we are having now while others they call cranks did predict it months ago?
On 14 Feb 2014, Rob wrote:
@Ron I have just tried copying and pasting that link and it worked fiine why not give it another go.
On 14 Feb 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK (sub) wrote:
One particular sound bite would be why did this type of weather happen several times in the distant past was it global warming then, no it was the sun stupid.
On 14 Feb 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
ROB: I just googled Glencoe Mountain Resort---and the photos, say more than a dozen posts. I hope Dame Julia will take a peek too. I live in the Grampians, so can see( when they road is not blocked) some of this first hand.
On 14 Feb 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
Rob,
cannot get the link to work---have they pulled the story? Pity we can't click on to the URLs directly.
On 14 Feb 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
John Kramer: perhaps next time you meet Dame Slingo, you could ask her where she stands on the views about the increased likelyhood of colder drier winters in the UK as she expressed in the Guardian article iof its environment section of March 14th 2012?
On 14 Feb 2014, John Kramer (Occasional Subscriber) wrote:
And for goodness sake, if you do speak to the scientific community, don't confuse weather and climate modelling!! So many on here do. There is no such thing as a "CO2 model" in weather forecasting. All weather forecast models just solve basic thermodynamic equations. They take the sun's heat as input and try to solve for how it affects atmospheric motion. They do not allow for CO2 at all - this is only taken into account in climate modelling which is completely different. Hope this helps with the confusion!!
On 14 Feb 2014, Nigella (occasional subscriber) wrote:
Richard, I think there are strong parallels between the great diet delusion & the CO2 global warming debate. In my opinion, wherever industry and commercial interests have too much to lose with a change in the "science" they will do their best to ensure that the "science" doesn't change. There are good reasons Coca-Cola, Cadbury, Kellogs etc are members of all the supposedly independent dietary advice organisations, donate to the British Heart Foundation etc! The same goes for the anti-CO2 industry. They have the money & the vested interests & they will be lobbying very hard indeed to ensure that their interests are protected.
I'm probably not saying anything new here or that anyone on this forum doesn't know. I'm sad I've got so sceptical but I think it is astounding how many people don't realise the amount of bad or twisted science used to protect corporate interests. Scientific research really should be independent. I shall stand down from my soap box now!
On 14 Feb 2014, Rob wrote:
Great sequence of pictures showing snow features on the Scottish mountains.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-26151532
On 14 Feb 2014, John Kramer (Occasional Subscriber) wrote:
Just a quick comment on the messaging. I think for papers like the Mail and Express, the messaging here is perfect. It's the sort of thing they love as is good for getting exposure. But for the scientific community, it doesn't really work as has been mentioned. I've met Julia Slingo numerous times at conferences and found her to be a very open-minded woman who is absolutely devoted to the science (rather than the politics). The science she beiieves in may turn out to be flawed, but there is certainly no sinister motive behind it.
On 14 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
[cont.] I just recently read the Wikipedia article on the St Jude storm (and edited a small portion with regard to the storm in The Netherlands) and it didn't include ANY mention of the fact that Piers had correctly predicted both the storm and its severity long in advance! I I were in Pier's position I might be fuming by now as well. BTW, Piers ... is there a Valentine's action for those who already have purchased Febr?
On 14 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Current (7 AM) temps 3.3 and -1.3 Celsius, actual and windchill respectively. Dew point at Kollum at 1,4 Celsius, bp at 999 mb and humidity at 91%. KNMI forecast for a severe SW storm with gusts up to 110 km/hr. Forecast by local weather man for very (!) severe storm with gusts up to 125 km/hr plus a warning that "the storm will start during the early hours of Saturday morning and last for up to 18 hours". Hopefully Pier's prediction of this thing being less severe is also valid for our part of the world. - As for Pier's possibly needing to change his tone and attitude towards the CO2 warmists: you all definitely have a point. Having said that, I can thoroughly understand how VERY frustrating it must be to be laughed at and made to look ridiculous for so many years while being right far more often than those doing the laughing. [cont]
On 14 Feb 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub NZ) wrote:
Piers the Feb RTQ forecast is still not up when I log in.
On 14 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
contd....one cannot underestimate the viciousness of the attacks those with non co2 models experience. They get no funding, work on a shoestring often hand to mouth, and often the only sites that will publish their work also have some flakey aspects to them which drags the whole debate down while the co2ers have the tax payer funds for slick publicity machines and dedicated internet warfare teams to occupy news boards and blogs. At some point we know non co2 models will be the mainstream but that is probably decades away despite every year proving co2 weighted models wrong because schools are churning out co2 model brainwashed believers every year. Sadly the best proof will be a dalton/maunder minimum so its no wonder co2ers want immunity from prosecution. However there has been some excellent digging of links by posters on this blog which shows you can't fool all the people all the time lol
On 14 Feb 2014, Piers_Corbyn wrote:
ALL GREAT COMMS THANKS. Jaqui, Harris, Jeremy on Words, campaigning, truth, science and all that. Thank you for Comms different words may be required in different situations. Overall it is a question of what we are doing and how to win and there are many ways people see that but note I am not a headless chicken and that is provable. On the other hand Slingo is a charlatan and that is provable. This is not a university common room chat. My words are not chosen to convince her but to clarify reality for those attracted to us and they are not attracted by things they have not heard. The twitpic of this PDF is the or one of the most rapidly downloaded ever. I have been involved in many campaigns and received astounding admissions of effectiveness from people at the highest level via behind the scenes information flow aka intelligence. That is not to say my every move is best but be clear the final fight is what we are about and this unique campaign needs thinking out of the box. Ta, PC
On 14 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
contd....So they claim they are 95% certain without explaining why their predictions don't work and they have tax funded multi million £ computer models to help them....The co2ers like to hide behind averages such as the sea level is rising by 3mm whereas the tide gauges show only 30% are rising 60% are static and the rest show an average falls of -6mm yet they bandy 3mm like its everywhere. Further they project into the future making this into 15m of sea level rise. They say their observations are backed up by satellites to a tolerance of 1mm but satellites can only measure sea levels to 2cm AT BEST. Often its worse.......In short the co2 models did not help the uk at all during these storms. They did not predict them nor their ferocity nor when they will end while the non co2 models did [openly on the internet you only have to look for them even a farmers almanac predicted the usa winter as bitterly cold in august 2013]....contd
On 14 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
the story so far.....those using non co2 biased models predicted the storms as early as aug-oct 2013. Those using co2 weighted models said it would be a drier than average winter. Those using non co2 driven models get ZERO funding from the public. Those using co2 weighted get billions of subsidy a year....The co2 models never predicted the storm nor their severity till the water was coming thro peoples door which is why the country was caught unprepared and unwarned. MetO is at fault....Those with non co2 driven models have a narrative that explains their predictions ie that the evidence is consistent with a Dalton or Maunder type minimum which is associated with wild jet swings often with rain and floods in uk. The co2 modellers seems to claim any type of weather fits their narrative even if its opposite to what they predicted.97% of their predictions have been proved wrong. There are gaping 'black holes' in their reasoning they try to fill with guesses like ocean heating [contd]
On 13 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
i can't believe the co2 stitch up on Newsnight [towards the end] on wed night. Its almost star wars sith sinister. What it did show is there is an unquestioned belief the MetO predicted it all, that the co2ers predicted all this in 2004 with their report and that everything is 'on track' on the co2 narrative. There seems to be no knowledge that the evidence contradicts everything the co2ers and their models have said, that they are now curve fitting and omitting to point out their predictions for a drier than average winter was totally wrong. The homeowners said they felt unprepared. We know why. MetO did not predict any storms but others with non co2 models did back in aug-oct2013. Newsnight was used as a platform for a jedi mindtrick of such a deep darkness its difficult to know where to begin. One day people will cringe at how they believed the co2ers dissembling. I haven't felt so ashamed of the uk since the iraq dossier propelled thousands to their deaths .
On 13 Feb 2014, Lynnne wrote:
I agree entirely with Jacquie. Piers has a very important and game-changing viewpoint, with impressive accuracy (despite some way-off months e.g., Feb 2014). However, the language on the Weatheraction website does not invite engagement with 'traditional' Met office climatologists and is a serious inhibitor to spreading WA's message. As a scientist, I cringe at some of the statements made ('delusional' etc.)and as a result, I do not share the WA website with many colleagues as I know that they will be put off by the language. Re-focussing on WA successes in forecast prediction would be very valuable, and would do more to promote the solar-lunar model than any anti-global warming rhetoric.
On 13 Feb 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
A dry day but chilly. The flooding on the A22 continues and will do for sometime as the Caterham Bourne reacts late to the rain and took sometime to rise. The battle is to save a water pumpstation from flooding that would affect supply to 16000 homes. Finally the legacy media is waking up to the EU's part in the flooding fiasco from its flooding directive to its waste directive causing problems for silt disposal. Booker has it covered nicely in The Spectator http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9137131/instant-wildlife-just-add-water/ and has the advantage of being a Somerset resident. He was also at the meeting with Owen Patterson and various Somerset groups where he demonstrated a good grasp of the situation. Surely he is one of our most capable ministers and it is a shame he has suffered a detached retina at this time. It will be interesting to see how he deals with the EU on this as he is just about the only minister to understand how far they reach into our lives.
On 13 Feb 2014, fixy (winter subscriber) wrote:
bumping up....
thank you Richard for the link:-
http://www.thelongview.com.au/documents/Sun-Defines-the-Climate-Abdussamatov-2009.pdf
a stunning read - somewhat 'heavy going' in the middle, but i would urge readers to persevere as it 'lighten ups' again later.
Sorry people - but its rather grim 'news'
please note this reported is dated 2008/9 - so now the question is - how has it panned out in the subsequent 5-6 years
On 13 Feb 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
Strong & cold WSW wind from the southern flank of yesterday's storm, which did not affect us as much as further south on this occasion; what I mean is that we often get winter storms but are generally more used to them, so they're not so newsworthy and nobody hears about them south of the border. 3˚C overnight and pretty much all day down to 2˚ by 10pm. Mostly cloudy & dry, though tonight the moon was often visible, wind abated.
On 13 Feb 2014, Jeremy wrote:
Piers- It is so rare to find someone nowadays who is prepared to challenge the orthodoxy of the day. It must sometimes seem so daunting having to face the barriers put up by an establishment that seems to have a near religious belief in climate change- but you are making progress. Your message is getting heard. I do agree with the comments made by Jacqui earlier- you should try to avoid attacks on the opposition. As a lawyer, I have been trained not to react, however frustrating the particular scenario is. Instead, concentrate on your message- it will be much clearer for it. I was wondering if there was a particular soundbite that you could put out about the present storms in the UK. For instance, "Storms In the UK- why were the predictions ignored? Weatheraction correctly published warnings of the stormy weather and the risk of flooding as long ago as [ State Dates ]. The predictions were being based on [ short explanation}. Then tell this to a favourable journalist!!
On 13 Feb 2014, Harris Keillar - occ subscriber wrote:
Jacqui makes an important point - I do not understand the physics, though reckon Piers is correct far more often than he is wrong. When it comes to persuading others, name-calling is counter-productive as it allows 'the other side' to ignore the real argument and shoot the messenger by pointing at the language used and thus imply that the whole argument is wrong. From a personal perspective I switch off completely at any argument that degenerates into mud-slinging.
On 13 Feb 2014, Rhys Jaggar 30d annual subscriber wrote:
For those interested in how things are happening, there are some interesting papers out there linking the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), an index for the Indian Ocean, with Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events.
Others also note how the Eastern Pacific Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation indices can predict the effects of an SSW on NE USA winters.
I have noted no links to carbon dioxide!! No doubt the Met Office are frantically seeking them out.
On 13 Feb 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:
I think that Jacquie has a point, when dealing with the dreaded media you do need to take the advise of the PR people as they know how to sell the snake oil especially when it comes to politics and science mixing, it needs some thought to stick it up the greens and mixed warmista types as they are involved up to there necks in the religion and have disciples in the game they can call on for free..
On 13 Feb 2014, Jacquie wrote:
Piers, I often read your blogs with great interest. I'm a great believer that our world climate is changing as it has done many times in the past and no doubt will do again and I firmly believe that this is nothing to do with CO2 or that it is man made. However, I would also like to comment that you may be taken more seriously by mainstream meteorology if you didn't use the words: "delusional charlatans" quite so often. Yes, it may be delusional to believe in AGW but these people are not necessarily charlatans. I firmly believe our climate is solar driven to a great extent and also that it is at the mercy of "chaos theory". Damn that butterfly eh?
On 13 Feb 2014, Carl T 45 sub NE Wales ele 1m wrote:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10635242/Lord-Lawson-denies-floods-are-linked-to-climate-change.html
Superb comments from Lord Lawson etc, take a look warmists, the politicians won't be writing those blank cheques for you much longer.
On 13 Feb 2014, Nigella (occasional subscriber) wrote:
Just to add a thank you for the Valentines Day offer. Always a sucker for romance - I've made my purchase! ;-)
On 13 Feb 2014, Nigella (occasional subscriber) wrote:
Has anyone noticed the BBC weather are now doing "pastcasts", where they talk about what the weather has been like and do a little recap! Do they think we all missed it?
I hooted with laughter at the preposterous link between rain in Indonesia and the weather here! Good gracious how much more tenuous a link could they find? I'm also slightly confused as to how 'experts' are so sure that the storm is due to global warning, when they are comparing flood levels to previous events, some of them hundreds of years ago. Were those due to global warming too? If so, when exactly did global warming start? I'm not a scientist, but even I can see this is bogus.
I wonder if Gary Taubes could ever get interested in this? He published a huge expose on the bad science connected with the food industry and how there are huge vested commercial & govt interests in getting us all to eat fattening cheap grain & cheap cereal and then flog us "diet " food. Same bad science as climate change!
On 13 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
So BBC still have your number piers? i feel sorry for the young generation in the bbc not only brainwashed in school that co2 is the driver of temperatures and anyone outside of that no matter what proof they provide is a heretic but that their journalism has to slanted to support bbc dogma so everything has to be 'approved' by co2 commissars before hand ...... Given MetO are in Cobra i can't see Cobra ever being allowed to ask for non co2 model forecasts as long as MetO is held hostage by co2 fanatics because they will veto it so the other members of COBRA will be kept in the dark by MetO co2 gatekeepers....... There will be a full moon on feb 14th [valentines] so bbc reporting might get even more emotional lol. ....for the person asking about a book there is quite a bit on sunspots etc online e.g http://www.thelongview.com.au/documents/Sun-Defines-the-Climate-Abdussamatov-2009.pdf ...which has a nice chart showing sunspot/sun irradiation correlation and temperatures on page 4
On 13 Feb 2014, JohnE (winter subscriber) wrote:
My word what a day yesterday was in the North West. in over 45 years of driving I have never had to cope with such extreme conditions. We had horizontal snow and sleet, winds that would blow you off your feet and lightening as well. we were doing some heavy, 23 ton, lifting yesterday, crane booked and on site but we managed to get all of it done before mid day which is when the gusts really did hit us but the drive home at around 18.00 was something quite special and what an experience. Ready now for the next one now but all of the lifting has been done so its just a question of sit back and wait.
On 13 Feb 2014, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26165326
Link I forgot to post in my previous post….
On 13 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Current (9:30 AM) temps 4.8 and -0.7 Celsius, actual and windchill respectively. Dew point at Kollum at 1.3 Celsius, wind varying between SW-SE, bp at 989 mb, humidity 78%. Forecast by KNMI for cloudy with hail&thunder. Sky at present is a clear blue. - @Rob & Richard ... To infer that the butterfly effect and hence chaos theory are unscientific is a bit far fetched, no? Deterministic systems can behave completely irrational. Don't throw ot the child with the bath water.
On 13 Feb 2014, occassionally David wrote:
Global Warming theory might be explained thus - at approximately 7:30 this morning the sun "rose" - if present trends continue it will never get dark again.
On 13 Feb 2014, east side wrote:
Good call Piers, on what they are now calling "wild wednesday".
Spot on for the underestimated ferocity/damage.
(& of course now a 3 month run of storms).
That with the correct calls on UK winter 2010, Russian hot summer 2010 are making your decadal score charts rise.
Just remember, in this game, it's RESULTS that count.
A long haul to get more accurate methodology+proven good calls is dead right.
In view of the sums of money involved, doing more with less has got to be the way forward.
People start to remember the MO "modelling" & "computer guesswork" make a 13/14 FAIL rate.
Infinite resources does just that.Tony Blair/Brown sponsored "climate change ministries" & filling Quangos full of jobsworths
It's the same quango lack of accountancy,- the EA spending 1.2billion on themselves, scrapping all brand new specially made dredging equipment (because of a "warming world"), while spending 30m on actually dredging.
Lots of those guys should be going to jail.
On 13 Feb 2014, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Here the latest deluded nonsense from our 'climate change' minister, Ed Davey.
Data: rainfaill in winter 1929-30 was heavier than in 2013/14. FACT. Not computer model. Source of data: MET OFFICE RECORDS.
Just one simple difference between those who analyse data and those who attack those who analyse data, call them 'deniers' etc etc.
'Our children won't know what snow is': a quote of one of Ed Davey's 'climate scientists' David Viner, in 2000. 2014 sees unbelievably deep snow on the mountains of Scotland, the heaviest for over 40 years and record snow depths at several stations in southern and south-eastern Switzerland, Northern Italy etc etc. The DATA refutes the OPINIONS of the 'climate scientist'. The DATA is respected by the SKEPTICS, who are not DINOSAURS but people who say; 'does the empirical data back up the hypothesis'?
The hypothesis that 'our children will not see snow again' has been demonstrably falsified.
On 13 Feb 2014, Helen dolan wrote:
How long can the government and hands tied bbc lie to the public about this hurrendoes weather, why won't they listen to you pierce you have been warning us for the last 12 months that big changes were on the way, and a mini ice age was just around the corner and that major storms and rain were going to be the normal and not a one off like the bbc told us last year , last night here in West Yorkshire was awful at our local school swimming pool the roof blew off while children were having there swimming lessons , thank god no one was hurt, please please try again to get on to our tv and be allowed to tell the public the truth and the science behind this weather so that the public can be prepared for the future it is much more scary not knowing what we are in for , thank you for telling us the truth on here.
On 13 Feb 2014, Paul, Bedfordshire (Subscriber) wrote:
Of course it is all C02, nothing to do with the fact that you know who apparently hadn't dredged the Thames since 1996, seemingly because of fears for a rare population of molluscs called the Depressed River Mussel. Apparently also partly because EU waste rules make dredging more costly. Daily Mail reports in full: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2558087/So-wasnt-Thames-dredged-In-case-rare-mollusc-disturbed-despite-region-described-one-undefended-flood-plains-England.html
Douglas Carswell is reported to have said: ‘Ever since we have given responsibility for flood defences to this central quango, they’ve elevated the interests of the natural over and above the human.
'We can see the consequences today. There is nothing nice about letting our rivers and coastline revert to nature. London used to be a swamp, and if we leave these clowns in charge it will return to that.’
On 13 Feb 2014, Richard Pinder wrote:
The Met Office could tell the BBC that a butterfly in Somerset caused rain in Indonesia, which then caused the floods back in Somerset. Its not a surprise that the BBC reports science from the Met Office uncritically, especially when you look at the non-scientific qualifications of its moronic EnvironMENTAL journalists such as Harrabin and Heap. I would not be surprised to watch BBC Parliament in the future, were an MP asks the BBC bigwigs why decisions made by environmental activists at a BBC seminar, have influenced the censorship of science, scientists and scientific debate at the BBC. Woops, a BBC moron may be reading this, but then its not just Piers, but a growing realisation that scientists must get round the left-wing journalism of censorship, by doing their own journalism, and publishing their own books and DVDs.
On 12 Feb 2014, Lorraine (occ sub) wrote:
Channel 4 news tonight Jon Snow was relentless on the subject of floods and asking was it climate change, do you think it's climate change and what is this jet stream which seems to be talked about nowadays, were some of his comments. Then to top it all he interviews the magician from Staines Paul Daniels asking him this happened two hundred years ago do you think it's climate change answer, how can it be climate change the same thing happened two hundred years ago - LOL
On 12 Feb 2014, danny wrote:
Do the bbc met office realise that people
are watching and listening to their forecasts very
carefully, on how wrong their forecasts are over
lets say a weekly period. Sometimes they stutter
as if they are either frightened, or they simply havn,t got a clue. They have been showing for a
couple of days a new low that is heading what looks like to be along the south coast, but kept stopping short of mentioning of whether this will
be of any great importance I E, describing it only this evening as blustery, i bet you as soon as this post is put up
they will then go right in to detail, when in fact they have had the last two days to warn the public ,if this new low will be of importance ..
On 12 Feb 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
Clear sky, brilliant stars, particularly Venus on the SE horizon, eerily calm compared to what's approaching the SW, 0˚C at 7.30 – by which time I can now read the thermometer without a torch, so the mornings are beginning to catch up. Really frosty this morning but brilliant sunshine until about 9.30, after which the clouds started moving in and the SSE'ly wind got up, dry until about 1.30pm, then it started chucking it down with rain big time, the roar in the tunnel made conversation impossible, the gale force wind made things rattle & flap. Rain until 9pm, then calm and mild with 5˚, huge contrast.
On 12 Feb 2014, Bill smith NE Wales (45d sub) wrote:
10 pmnews, BBC report that rain in Bankok is believed to be the underlying trigger for all this weather we have experienced, for good measure the words global warming were used,and a photo of a chimney giving out smoke were shown for effect. No doubt!Now I know the lunatics have taken over the asylum. rant over ,Still windy here but much quieter than the afternoon battering.
On 12 Feb 2014, Gary wrote:
Piers
In view of the terrible nature of these relentless storms and the destruction and loss of life being caused, how about going public with your predictions, in the interests of the public at large? You may attract more converts!
On 12 Feb 2014, Rob wrote:
Poorest and most laughable explanation yet given as to the cause of the recent run of storms.......rain in Indonesia has set up a chain reaction in the course of the jetstream causing it to move over America and the Atlantic. Thankfully they refused to say it was defintely caused by AGW
On 12 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Hope all of you in the UK will stay safe, please do not venture outside. I'd like to continue our interesting exchanges on this forum ;-) Meanwhile, back in Fryslân ... just a Code Yellow from the KNMI with the prediction of "some squalls with hail and possibly thunder with stormy wind with gusts up to 100 km/hr". \i hope they're right. Because if this monster I'm seeing on Windfinder dips a little to the South ... currently (9 PM) 5.5 and - 1 Celsius, actual and windchill respectively. Kollum records a 1.1 Celsius dew point and air pressure of 992 mb (dropped from 1002 mb this morning). We'll just have to wait and see.
On 12 Feb 2014, Ville wrote:
Mr Corbyn, Please, i would like to learn these solar-earth magnetic connections.
Is there a book you would recommend.
I am pretty familiar with physics, so no book will be too hard for me. Thank you!
On 12 Feb 2014, hooch5 wrote:
Fact or Fiction Muchelney translated back Means Island, I used to live on the levels and every year locals would dredge the rivers, we used to fish the parrett and yeo and saw this happening, its only since the EA have taken over operations that this has been a major event (apart from the 9 century when tsunami struck caused by an earthquake).best way forward give the maintenance back to the farming community with local government funding.I cant believe that the Huntspill sluices are still on summer level, unless the EA don't want people further down stream flooded? so easier to sacrifice the folk on the levels perhaps!
On 12 Feb 2014, hooch5 wrote:
Ref; Weather, its gonna do what it wants to do, and any government/climatologist,warmist, CO2 ist aint got a clue. Big Planet even bigger Universe, no rules, some strike lucky but no one can predict its true outcome, or can they seems like Mr Corbyn tends to get it right more times than not, chance- luck or has he got the formula right, I know who I would ask if I needed to take an Umbrella!
On 12 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
@Richard P i would say that given the evidence that people could predict severe storms months ago while MetO and the rest with their multi million co2 models failed then the Govt should split funding equally between co2 and non co2 based forecasting. Further they should set up a 5 year research department into non co2 driven models......the MetO with their failed models are at the heart of COBRA which does not instill confidence given they did not predict the storms [when others did] and thus COBRA will not be able to predict what is going to happen or when its going to end so will always be reactive rather than proactive and will not be able to anticipate and prepare for any further weather events.....sadly these storms are being used by co2ers as 'proof' their belief is correct despite their inability to predict it. Thus the co2ers are locking in misery for the people, costing the country 100s of millions and maybe even loss of life....Time to fund models that work.
On 12 Feb 2014, maria1 45 day sub wrote:
just to inform that there is another maria lately. Not me. I am riding it out in somerset, staying indoors having stocked up and donated to somersetcf.org. God help the people on the levels if this is going to happen every year as appears to be the case. Planning my veg seed sowing and only going for easy types that can stand wet, wind or drought. Thank you for forewarning us Piers
On 12 Feb 2014, Carl 30d Subscriber wrote:
Oh congratulations Piers 100mph and above winds reported when metO last night said gusts of 80mph that realy does confirm your R5 periods worse than standard metO forecasts.That people is real science not the the so called "science is settled drivel that the leader of the green party Natalie Bennet claimed yesterday or indeed metO Dame Julia sling your hook Slingo
On 12 Feb 2014, maria wrote:
And a round of applause to Met Eireanne for upgrading to a red for our county @ 16.25!!! Eldest child in safe very scary journey home with trees down this way & that, buses stuck at secondary school waiting to find routes home, an absolute cock up I would describe it as! peeps don't wait to check for met upgrades just don't travel unnecessarily if at all! be safe!
On 12 Feb 2014, Rhys Jaggar 30d annual subscriber wrote:
Met Office are now reporting a 106mph wind speed recorded at Aberdaron at the far end of the Lleyn Peninsula, NW Wales.
Sounds like your updated forecast was spot on Piers!!
On 12 Feb 2014, Maria wrote:
Pps Heart still rushing as fast as the wind received a call which bus driver struggled to send & i couldn't get a signal to reply for a few mins which felt longer, to say a tree had come down up the rd & she had my 2 littlest kids if I could get to her from the other side, ran up the road in winds like I've never experienced to have to cross a fallen tree with another swaying like it was going to fall too, to greet my very frightened lil girl n boy & get them to trust me to get them back over the tree & bk home, I could one lose it with the met right now & 2 the school & myself for putting my kids through that, will ring in a bit & check the driver got everybody home ok as another tree down I've just heard, Steve I agree everyone should stay the fek indoors! rant over as glad we all alive!
On 12 Feb 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
Our office in Limerick has been structurally damaged (windows, doors) by the storm which is now INTENSIFYING across Ireland with winds peaking at 101mph at sea and 97mph inland, all heading towards Wales & SW England. STAY INDOORS FOLKS! Met Office said "This is not a hurricane but hurricane force winds have been reported within the storm" What the ----?
On 12 Feb 2014, Maria wrote:
Ps looked @ Met Eireanne @ 2 still on yellow alert, just checked a few mins after posting last comment to find we have just been upgraded to orange in time for the school run! bit last minute but hey thanks anyway Met Eiranne! grr! in future I think I will worry less what the met says & schools with their pressure on absence days & use my own instinct!
On 12 Feb 2014, Christine Gaskill wrote:
Very windy and rainy in the Chilterns, neighbours trampoline almost in our garden now. My neices and nephew in Anglesey have been sent home from school as 100mph winds are threatened. Well done Piers.
On 12 Feb 2014, Rhys Jaggar 30d annual subscriber wrote:
For those lamenting the politicians, I was just watching Andrew Neil chatting to Nick Robinson and a Tory + Labour MP on TV.
What was at least heatening was that the Tory said that the discussions which will have to take place now will involve how to secure economic resilience to climate events FOR THE NEXT 25 YEARS.
Well, at least that's a start. They understand that resilience can only be measured in decades (centuries really), not years.
Here in NW London we had a couple of hours of heavy rain from about 12.30pm, now it's stopping and starting again but the wind has picked up. Nothing startling, the trees are just rustling strongly and you can hear the wind from inside. No bent trees or broken branches.
On 12 Feb 2014, Richard Pinder wrote:
Richard, Are you saying that Scientists such as Ed Fix and Nicola Scafetta who use the Planetary movements to predict the length of the Solar Cycle, and all that implies as regards the explanation for the Global Warming period and the prediction of a Mini-Ice -Age, has been known about since 1818. So a Farmers almanac's secret formula, largely unchanged since founder David Young published the first almanac in 1818, is now no longer a secret, but now a taboo, because it would bring down the most expensive scientific fraud in history.
On 12 Feb 2014, Maria wrote:
Gales ripping through Ireland again, actually quite freaky here in the midlands I think it's the worst one so far, lots of damage reported over the country & mini tornado in Rosscommon, can't wait for all the kids to get in from school, beginning to wish (although we only on a yellow alert while other counties on red & orange) had kept them home today, stay safe all :-/ ps excellent forecasting from Piers as per usual
On 12 Feb 2014, David (Sub) wrote:
The MetOffice have issued a RED WARNING.
This was issued at 10:27 today. IIRC the winds were already hitting the west coast of the UK by this point, so this warning would represent a forecast from 0 hours ahead. I hear that the wind is pretty bad in the south west. Maybe the MO gave the warning after looking out the window. I think that this is the first red warning this winter, although I seem to recall that we have had several storms with winds over 100mph.
On 12 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
Reviewing the online predictions made aug-oct for winter weather it seems anyone NOT using a co2 based model has forecast the winter weather reasonably. People who use just physics seem to get it about right and certainly more accurate than MetO 'drier than normal' forecast [although they call it a 'preview']. So it seems its 'not rocket science' and predictions can be made more than 5 days ahead....... The guy who posted on another board [link in another post] openly describes his reasoning how he predicted severe winter storms. He had no need of a state funded billion dollar brain co2 magic box to help him.....So those using co2 models said it would be drier than normal while those using normal weather science predicted severe storms and other wild jet stream swing type weather. Given the govt listen to the co2ers models it is no wonder they were UNPREPARED and why they made NO preparations for a good chance of severe storms and heavy rain? Its also why they CANNOT predict the end?
On 12 Feb 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
At 1130 as the wind was howling round the tower block in Victoria a colleague commented on the absence of MoBeeb forecast rain. Started at 1230 and is now lashing down at 1345. Visibility is limited to just beyond Battersea power station and the windows are leaking badly. Trains on the Caterham line are being delayed due to further flooding which will affect my joining service even though the Tattenham Corner line hasn't been affected by flooding. The pumping operation along the A22 is continuing by using the Purley Cross pedestrian subway as a sump. The lame legacy media manage to debate the floods without mentioning that it was done under orders from the EU with the exception of a brief mention and h/t to Richard North in City AM. Simple really - no EU, no directive to flood people's land. If we were Norway or Switzerland we would be independant and free to manage our rain. Even if March comes bearing dry weather, it has been said that it will take months for the ground to dry.
On 12 Feb 2014, Richard Tate wrote:
Well I'm in Haywards Heath - East Sussex and currently it's almost like night out there and very heavy rain and high squally winds! easily 70 MPH+ gusting at 80 I would say.
I live in Hove on the coast and it has been pretty much non-stop wind and rain for 2 months.
I think the Thames might be in trouble a bit further up the country.
I do hope our venerable leaders start listening to people like Piers because storms, cold, and crop failure are facing this country as of now.
On 12 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2547950/Weather-expert-accuses-Met-Office-warm-bias-getting-annual-predictions-wrong-13-14-years.html
Hudson made the Mail.....will the bbc co2 commissars silence him?
On 12 Feb 2014, danny wrote:
Sue i second your opinion
On 12 Feb 2014, Michael wrote:
75d sub: West Yorkshire: Well, last night (11th) a very interesting cell of snow and wind hit the region, even had a bit of thunder snow and lightening! Looking at the 30d for Feb again, the temps seem a bit off from what was forecast, R5 periods spot on. I really wonder whether winter will truly arrive before April and my trip to Center Parks! Good luck Piers!
On 12 Feb 2014, Sue Nami wrote:
The only solution is for Piers to assemble his chosen group of experts, hire a lecture theatre somewhere in central London, invite the Royal Society and world's media...and just PROVE it
...End of !!!
On 12 Feb 2014, bill smith N E Wales(45d sub) wrote:
It is turning very wet and windy now (12:30 , barometer falling (15mb) in last 4 hours , quite impressive. From experience it seems to be the the sudden rise in pressure after the centre low has passed that gives the problems with wind for this area due to the veering nature. I see 97mph reported in outehrn Ireland now
On 12 Feb 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
Please try this link instead https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/433574560630185984/photo/1
On 12 Feb 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
Storm arriving bang on cue. Massive storm picture off Dorset coast; https://twitter.com/...0185984/photo/1. Schools closing in Ireland. Up to 70mm of rainfall to top up water levels across SW England by Friday (http://news.sky.com/story/1210377/wild-wednesday-where-will-latest-storm-hit). Tornado reported in Rosscommon and my colleagues just saw a water funnel in the docks near Canary Wharf. When will it all end? Can't wait for the 45d March forecast next week. Subscribe!
On 12 Feb 2014, Gill 1066 East Sussex - subscriber wrote:
Same here in E Sussex. All the rain promised over the last few days to be lashing us from 6am this morning still hasn't arrived and it is now 12.30pm. Windy though. With a red warning for wind now in place I wonder if one of the first structures to be at risk are those huge wind turbines sticking up in the air. Bet they aren't turning now! So much for 'green energy'!
On 12 Feb 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
Amber warning out also for S/west. mids, N and N East. +++ rain just started here and winds picking upp. This is going to get nasty. Stay safe everyone. Some horrible squal lines on the radar
.
On 12 Feb 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
Issued at: 1027 on Wed 12 Feb 2014
Valid from: 1330 on Wed 12 Feb 2014
Valid to: 2100 on Wed 12 Feb 2014Red warning of wind
TAKE ACTION
During this afternoon a swathe of exceptionally strong winds is expected to affect western parts of Wales and then some northwestern parts of England this evening, particularly in coastal areas. Winds are expected to gust 80 mph widely and possibly reach 100 mph in the most exposed locations in west and northwest Wales. Winds of this strength can cause widespread structural damage, bringing down trees and also leading to loss of power supplies. In addition, large waves are likely to affect some coasts. The public should take action to alter their travel arrangements during this spell of storm force winds..Another MAJOR damaging storm will hit Ireland and Britain during WeatherAction's Top Red R5 period 10-12 Feb. Ferocity of Winds, waves and damage will exceed expectations of standard meteorology from one day or 12hrs ahead.
On 12 Feb 2014, Chris H (subscriber) wrote:
Hi Piers - here's the link to the PM programme from yesterday. Paul Hudson is on about 50 minutes in. http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b03ts4fm
On 12 Feb 2014, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
It's 11.30am here in NW London and still no sign of the heavy rain we were promised at 8am this morning on the BBC forecasts around midnight last night. Plenty of clouds, some wind, but no wild weather, no rain.
As for Dame Slingo, I"ve challenged her to explain how the glaciers in the Zermatt and Saas Fee areas of the Alpine divide, not to mention the Aletsch Glacier (which is the biggest in Europe), ever formed if the weather we are getting now is unique. It's precisely the weather that gives huge snowfall in those areas - depressions coming in from the SW to SE, whereas winds from the West to NE give them very little snow. So in order to have those huge glaciers there, there must have been plenty of depressions lashing into the Alps from the SW through SE through plenty of winter seasons, eh??
Dear me……..all that ski-ing and mountaineering I did instead of a degree in meteorology…….
On 12 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
a guy posted on a board a half year prediction in OCTOBER 2013......."The need for stronger west and SW winds from a Conservation of Angular Momentum consideration certainly lends itself to scope for the North of Britain to get some real batterings- we are set to have some of our biggest winter storms in years."....."http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78219-late-autumn-and-winter-201314-mild-stormy-short-cold-snaps-later/ ............so a guy who says his degree was not 'good enough' to get him a met related job is better at forecasting that the co2ers with their 'wizard of oz' machines in MetO ?
On 12 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
Even a Farmers Almanac in AUGUST 2013 predicted the 2014 winter for usa would be "piercing cold," "bitterly cold" and "biting cold" to describe the upcoming winter. .... ' Based on planetary positions, sunspots and lunar cycles, the almanac's secret formula is largely unchanged since founder David Young published the first almanac in 1818.'...
they say their forecasts are right 80% of the time.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/farmers-almanac-predicts-a-bitterly-cold-winter/
On 12 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
Piers in relation to the MetO november 3 month prediction that said .......
" forecast models favour a negative NAO pattern this winter, with high pressure areas more likely to be centred over or close to the UK. As in all seasons, this pre-dominance of anticyclones is likely to lead to drier-than-normal conditions across the country, ".......what were the november sun lunar model long range forecasts for the same period saying? a link would be great.
On 12 Feb 2014, Barbara wrote:
North Coast of NI, we had heavy snow showers yesterday evening, but has now turned to rain and the breeze starting to pick up, still some snow laying!
On 12 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
@kevin.... nice spot and convicts them red handed. No wonder cobra is made to look stupid if they relying on forecasts like these? The metO are dice players who repeat a constant mantra in the hope one day they will be right...... I can play that game. The next 3 months will be mainly warm and dry. i will repeat this statement every month. At some point in the next 100 years i will be right lol.
On 12 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
@blackpearl.......i thought the HYS on the bbc were done by unpaid interns? They still have HYS but on any subject other than floods. So selection is going on...... When people like Piers are no longer blacklisted then one say the bbc is an open portal?...... What the bbc and others are doing is not innocent or neutral. To connive with co2 ideologues using it to extract money they condemn the population to unpreparedness like with these floods because on their models predicting past 5 days they say is 'impossible'. So we have 2 models. One based on co2 that predicts nothing and another based on the sun that can. Which is it rational to choose? Which is the more likely to have more truth? Which has more power in predicting?
On 12 Feb 2014, Kevin Harrow wrote:
The Met Office's classic November 2013 prediction for rain fall this winter.Just shows what their £30+mill computer can do..
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/m/8/A3_plots-precip-DJF-2.pdf
On 12 Feb 2014, Sue (ROI) wrote:
Hi Piers, here in Ireland Met Eireann have issued a Red weather warning for storm force valid from 6am - 3pm, it's the first red warning they have issued. Ryan Maue like you has warned of hurricane conditions and another heading in fri-sat.
It's so calm outside now at 6am...as you said this is beyond Met expections, I wonder what state we'ii be in by the end of the day.
On 11 Feb 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
I concur with Fred as the wind was battering our tower block in Victoria around mid-morning and the rain was lashing down. The is a window that has been screwed shut and any strong westerly wind catches that and really roars. It was much the same sound as has occurred regularly since before Christmas. Spare a thought for Network Rail having repaired the embankment to reopen the Horsham to Leatherhead line only to have a landslide close the lines to Uckfield and East Grinstead at Oxted. They have around 500 sites to deal with or where there is potential trouble - normally it would be around 12!
On 11 Feb 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, overcast & dry but not for long: by 8.15 it was chucking it down with sleet, strong WSW wind and feeling really cold in all this wet. However, this only lasted for a couple of hours, after which it dried up and in the afternoon the sun even came out and it was rather calm. Not much of a temp change though, it barely got to 4˚ and by 10pm it was down to -1˚ with a good frost.
On 11 Feb 2014, Russ 45 day subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Sat24 as of 9.45pm this evening Tues 11th., there's a triple swirly thing happening between Scotland and Iceland again. These triple swirlies are a new phenomenomenon I'm sure. They only seem to occur between big storms, especially if one is approaching. Very pretty but maybe an accurate harbinger of doom?...... Piers...be very careful setting up debates with the big boys & girls. They will set you up dude and they'll make you look a fool. Make sure you choose a neutral venue and have some big guns on your side...
On 11 Feb 2014, BLACK PEARL wrote:
On 11 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
the bbc hasn't had a 'have your say' on the floods nor on their 'its co2 climate change' stories yet. They are frightened and dare not open up one of those stories to comments. It must be important for them to have their co2 biased narrative unchallenged?
****************************************************************************************************************************
BBC overtime has rationed their HYS on such subjects, compared to the past, as it allowed an open portal for links to be posted to alternative evidence & scientific opnion
On 11 Feb 2014, Chris H (Subscriber) wrote:
Hi Piers - I have just been listening to PM on Radio 4, and they had Paul Hudson on, saying that solar activity was behind much of the recent weather, and that many scientists think that we are entering a 'Little Ice Age'! OK, he did have to mention man made climate change as well, but they probably wouldn't have let him on without that. Are the scales falling from some eyes, I wonder? The programme will be available on IPlayer very shortly.
On 11 Feb 2014, Steve wrote:
True that the Beeb doesn't want our comments for fear of destroying their cosy warmist stance. They have however shot themselves in the proverbial foot by admitting that these storms are the worst for 250 years - logical question - how much of the miniscule trace gas Co2 was there then? and if it was less (as it must have been) what caused the LIA and the similar weather patterns in those days? Cue Piers with the truth! but I doubt if any of these robot politicians and media people can see the irony of what they are saying.
On 11 Feb 2014, Maria ( non subscriber ) wrote:
sleet, sun snow sun snow in the middle of Ireland, settled enough on lawn for an after school snowball fight :D wind got up on a few occasions to help drive down a lot in a short time tho melted a bit inbetween snow showers, 3 children willing the snow to happen big time hoping for no school tomorrow, here's hoping as its coming down again now @ 5.09pm just hope the husband gets home again as he was laughing @ me saying drive carefully from Wicklow only to ring me half hr ago to say he couldn't see the road o-o unpredictable weather always has its downsides :-/
On 11 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
the bbc hasn't had a 'have your say' on the floods nor on their 'its co2 climate change' stories yet. They are frightened and dare not open up one of those stories to comments. It must be important for them to have their co2 biased narrative unchallenged?
On 11 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Windfinder site expects the storm to make landfall in SW England between 6 and 9 AM tomorrow morning. Piers, do you think they might be right? Would be nice for folks there to know how much time they have for preparation etc. I guess morning traffic will be hugely influenced as well.
On 11 Feb 2014, Russ 45 day subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Hey it's snowing! ...... Nah! False alarm! Back to the rain, mud, swamp, Everglades, mire, bog, drowning practise etc. That local farmer is fairing ok this year, so far. Grassed over his largest field and planted sheep. The rest look sort of familiar so might be trying winter barley again. As long as the snow and ice hold off he'll be fine. The worst field is the smallest but with the worst drainage, and in a rather moist position. You can follow the route of the natural drainage dyke down through the field to where the water gathers in a temporary pond, then seeps under a lane to continue it's journey down through an old mine working and off into the valley. I think he needs to cut drainage ditches into the worst parts of the field, cut out the dyke and fill with limestone gravel to help prevent mud from clogging it up, then put a drain pipe under the road, if there isn't one there already, or clean out any existing ones. 2/3rds of that field is dead already due to being waterlogged!
On 11 Feb 2014, Wendy wrote:
Very heavy snow in North Derbyshire , Peak District. Been snowing now for over 2 hours.
Several accidents , lorriies and cars getting stuck!! Using the snow shovel for the first time this year!
45 day sub.
On 11 Feb 2014, Fred wrote:
Croydon South London Tues 11th at 1100hrs. Wet and very very windy. This strength of wind wasn't expected....and the main storm hasn't arrived yet. R5 period has clearly upped the ante.
On 11 Feb 2014, occassionally David wrote:
Currently snowing in Birmingham.
The MO had us down for maybe some rain and netweather has us down for cloudy and no precipitation of any kind. One might as well ask the butterflies to explain Keynesian economics.
On 11 Feb 2014, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Gill
Sochi itself is a quasi-tropical resort on the Black Sea, rather akin to Nice in the Mediterranean. It's got palm trees and the Russians flock there in summer like the Brits flock to Spain, France and Greece.
None of the outdoor events at the Winter Olympics are happening in Sochi, they happen in the mountains to the North, just like there are ski resorts within 1hr of the Mediterranean which get reams of snow in Southern France, NW Italy and in the Pyrenees.
What you are seeing weather-wise in Sochi is pretty darn normal for that part of the world.
On 11 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
[cont] - We have infinite more rats&mice coming up to (and in!) the house these last few weeks. I seem to remember this happened as well during the times it rained continuously these past few years. So basically, during the medieval Plague you were safe is your crops had failed and you were starving, but ran the risk of contracting the plague if you had food in the house. Seems like the same thing as when you were put to the water-test to see whether or not you were a witch; if you loated, you were a witch and were executed. If you sank and drowned, you were not a witch but dead anyways. Handy way to get rid of socially unwanted individuals, me thinks. (Note-actually women were pulled out of the water before they drowned. Not all of them though.)
On 11 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
[cont.] - Economic wood consumption and no need for continuous 'wood feeding', which would be aq deciding factor for elderly people. And yes, it's time people started 'banding together'. In the case of the elderly it is is of the utmost importance that they can rely on others helping them (i.e. supplying wood). Again it is very clear that we shouldn't count on governments helping us out. Older people need to start thinking about how their parents and even grandparents solved certain situations. The time of 'flicking a switch and all will be OK' have passed I think, not only because those switches will fail more often but also because that same switch is becoming more and more expensive. - GERRY: of course We The People are dumb and ignorant. And the EU prefers to keep it that way, especially ignorance wise. - Realization: grain may not have been the only impetus for rats and mice to enter towns and houses during the Black Death. RAIN! [cont.]
On 11 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
[cont.] - Well, no. In November 2013, continuous rain caused a quay wall in the city of Utrecht to collapse, and just recently a red alert has been given with regard to the Amsterdam quay walls. Mid 2013, a large number of (smaller) sea dykes were shown to be in very bad condition. And in 2002/2003 the government made the historic decision to DE-POLDER large areas, giving 'rivers more room when flooding'. This decision has already been declared ludicrous by several organisations and (of course) local inhabitants, not in the least because it threatens drinking water supplies and quality. Here's a link to the website that specifically deals with it: http://bit.ly/1fbP3jb - RUSS: that 'ranting reporter' is very accurately summing up the problems in the case of society coming to a screeching halt. It's why I kept advocating getting a wood stove several times in previous posts. Better yet, build a small (or large) masonry stove. [cont.]
On 11 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Current (8 AM) temps are just below 2.4 and 0.3 Celsius, actual and windchill respectively. Dew point has been steadily dropping since 3 AM and is now at 0.8 Celsius (Kollum). WInd just shifted from SW to SE. Humidity has been above 90% for days on end. - @GILL: if she had just finished a sporting event, a t-shirt seems logical. Nothing to do with GW ;-) - Although I generally concur with Rando's description of this winter, we did have snow. And far more than predicted by the KNMI, which talked about a scant few cms. We had one day of more than 10 or even 15 cms. In general Winter really has been to visit though, compared to previous years. Just mind numbing grey, cloudy and wet weather. - CRAIG: we have something called the National Water Policy Agreement (2003). The goal is to have water management in order by 2015 and maintain that through 2050. Key words are 'climate change', 'rising sea water levels', 'ground subsidence', yahda yahda blah blah blah. Is it effective? [cont.]
On 11 Feb 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub NZ) wrote:
We were quite disgusted to learn of your government's refusal to divert some of the money set aside for overseas aid to help flood victims in the UK. I hope that the current online petition is successful in making them rethink their decision and that they put the money where it is most needed in the UK.
On 10 Feb 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
[cont'd] Therefore, it is wrong to accuse the EA of incompetence since the aim of its policy was to cause flooding. Job well done it would seem. Naturally, Pickles is either ignorant of the EU's role in this or is deceiving by not mentioning it. The UKIP clown Farage should be all over this but has put the ball over the bar from 5 yards. David Rose does quite well in The Mail to cover it but stops short of fully nailing the EU after one brief mention. Saskia: I well remember the Netherlands referendum as I was in Drenthe the weekend before the vote. Of course you gave the wrong answer! As did Ireland later on and they have had their referendum vote clause removed. However, we have ours and unless it can be argues that the new treaty won't affect us, in 2017 or 2018 we get a chance to oppose the new treaty. Since EU votes have usually given the wrong answer, that is why they prefer little steps in the background to increase their power. We, the people, just don't understand :-)
On 10 Feb 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Paul, Bedfordshire: where else does one go for the truth on the EU other than Booker and North. This link to the article is from Eureferendum http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9130562/how-the-first-world-war-inspired-the-eu/ and is free. It did save me from searching through the bible - Booker & North's The Great Deception - for the information. The title sums up the project but it's not always the EU who deceive - they are often quite up front about the creation of the superstate - it is the national politicians who lie like the traiterous Heath who sold us the common market line when the book shows that he was fully aware of the end product. He even knew our fish would be stolen but made sure it was delayed enough for him to be long gone from the scene of the crime. Booker's latest column underlines the EU's role in or floods http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/10625663/Flooding-Somerset-Levels-disaster-is-being-driven-by-EU-policy.html [cont'd]
On 10 Feb 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
RHYS: thanks, as someone living in the Grampians about the 'heads up' over the huge amounts of snow up here above 300-500 metres. I have also pointed this out in several posts and at least the Telegraph did put it on the front page as an issue. I have emailed my local MSPs and MP about the potential for a massive flooding event should there be a rapid incursion of tropical air and have copied it to Piers. This is also more acute now with colder air and more low pressure systems forecast in the next week.
On 10 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
Pickles after the cobra meeting said "as we move towards the end of February we hope the weather MAY improve".....ie 18 days from now cobra think the rain MIGHT stop and it MIGHT get better? ......http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26103107......frankly if the govt keep relying on the co2ers they will just lurch blindly from crisis to crisis. I guess they haven't been humbled enough yet to consider their forecasting method is broken? If cobra are too tight to buy a sub i'd pay for a 1 off long range forecast to be sent to them. Mind you a crisis will probably do them good if it makes them rethink? Shame ordinary people have to pay for the govt's blinkered mindset with misery and hardship. Uk led by donkeys again.
On 10 Feb 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, overcast but dry, light SW breeze, temp rising to 7˚ in a clearing sky with mare's tail cirrus, a definite whiff of spring in the air today. Heard song thrush practising her song, first one for me this year, early. 1˚ by 9pm, slight frost.
On 10 Feb 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
...cont..."At present computer models are suggesting a variety of possible tracks for this system across the UK. Hence there remains uncertainty regarding its exact track and hence the areas more likely to be affected by the worst of the winds. However, current ideas suggest that southwest Britain could bear the brunt with gusts of 60-70 mph widely, perhaps with gusts over 80 mph in exposed areas." http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/warnings/
On 10 Feb 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
MetO Amber/yellow warnings out. ==="This [Amber] warning should be viewed in the broader context of the Yellow Wind Alert..A vigorous area of low pressure is expected to move quickly northeastwards across the UK later on Wednesday. At present computer models are suggesting a variety of possible tracks for this system across the UK. Hence there remains uncertainty regarding its exact track and hence the areas more likely to be affected by the worst of the winds. However, current ideas suggest that southwest Britain could bear the brunt with gusts of 60-70 mph widely, perhaps with gusts over 80 mph in exposed areas. Please monitor the website as this alert may be adjusted as new information become available...cont...
On 10 Feb 2014, Lorraine wrote:
Blinkered environment agency failed to look at your long term forecasts Piers
On 10 Feb 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
@Paul the jetstream is currently south down in N Africa, === http://squall.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_norhem_00.gif === as it has often been many times these past few years. This is where the MetO are misleading as the js is stuck again just over the Eastern Pacific which is the wrong place for snow for us but a blocked js all the same. So they are happy to blame the js for.cold but jump at the drop of a hat to blame it on co2 when it's rain. They can't have it both ways. +++ @Russ that video is sobering. I showed my mum - suffice to say she agrees on the need to stock up & be prepared. I've already had one flood induced powercut in 2014 +++ Locally getting v bad. Pumps out in many places, fields under water, trains b******d, rivers at record levels (only since the 90s so short records), river Thames spilling everywhere. Horrific
I said privately that a Thames Valley '47 type flood was on cards again as the history showed it highly likely. Wish I'd been wrong.
On 10 Feb 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
Oh dear. This much vaunted MetO report (you know Slingo's witch finder guide) contains this gem "Sea level along the English Channel has already risen by about 12cm in the last 100 years. With the warming we are already committed to over the next few decades,+++ a further 11-16cm of sea level rise is likely by 2030+++ the only thing we are committed to is more idiocy.
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/02/10/met-office-forecasting-skill-on-show/ +++ Hearing all the bleating from Chris Smith (who fails to understand the criticism is not for rank & file EA workers but leadership, nor that he has failed to apologise) I am struck with his spineless qualities. During the Napoleonic wars we really had to get the Levels producing (by reclaiming land) & despite the yoyo extreme weather of the LIA we did - with vastly inferior technology. I know where many would like to shove the white flags being waved nowadays @Saskia How do the Dutch manage now? We have the same rules (or do we?)
On 10 Feb 2014, Rando wrote:
The winter weather here is Estonia has been really strange. November, December and half of January were very warm with lots of storms.
Then around mid January it could cold and it snowed a bit, and then it went really cold. The weather was sunny for a couple of weeks with no snow. Now it is back to warm weather and there is practically no snow anymore.
Snow and proper winter has been absent this year and I wonder if the jet stream changes are going to bring more winters like that.
On 10 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Another storm coming, oh dear. I did see something on the site windfinder.com (http://bit.ly/1iH8swW) predicts it will arrive at Noon on Wednesday. Looks to be a 7-9BF storm as per their prediction, which means that according to Piers we'll be in for some very rough weather again. Hopefully not as bad as October 28th :-\
On 10 Feb 2014, Gill 1066 East Sussex - subscriber wrote:
Thanks Piers, I did read the update; I'll take that to be 'Don't put the umbrella away just yet!' then' - Horrible lightning (with thunder) storm 3am Sunday early hours. Blew the power out for an hour. Again no power whilst repairs in the afternoon up the road- (lightning hit a transformer) took till 7pm. I suppose I'll just have to watch the Olympics instead if I can't garden. Anyone see Jenny Jones interview in Sochi today - wearing a T shirt OUTSIDE. No doubt that will be credited to GW as well!
On 10 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
next time co2ers talk about tide gauges this paper will help.........The location of tide gauges is not random. If their locations are positively (negatively) correlated with SLR, estimates of global SLR will be biased upwards (downwards)....... tide gauges dating back to the 19
th century were located where sea levels happened to be rising. Data reconstructions based on these tide
gauges are therefore likely to over estimate sea level rise. .....http://pluto.mscc.huji.ac.il/~msdfels/wpapers/Tide%20gauge%20location.pdf
On 10 Feb 2014, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Paul
I think you need to distinguish between 'snowless valleys in the UK' and a 'snowless winter'.
The Scottish mountains above 400 - 500m have the heaviest snow cover in around 40 years right now, courtesy of 2 months of almost continuous snowfall.
Cairngorm mountain has had snowfall on 60 of the past 64 days and Glencoe ski resort has 350cm at the top of the mountain and well over a metre at the bottom: I've never seen depths like those in 30 years and I lived up there and skied there for 7 years.
I know that Scotland is rarely reported on in the London-centric UK media, but we must retain standards at Weatheraction through using our own sources.
IN this case, I suggest you try:
www.winterhighland.info
where you can find all the details you want about the incredibly snowy winter in the Scottish mountains.
On 10 Feb 2014, Paul wrote:
Seven floody weeks. If the jet stream was stuck to the south it would have been seven snowy weeks. This winter is looking like a snowless winter for most of the UK. Perhaps we're going to get this winters worth of snow on top of next winters.
On 10 Feb 2014, Shaun South Wales wrote:
I'm afraid @Richard, that it would only ad fuel to the AGW fire as they have warned of sea levels rising and places like London being vulnerable. We know this isn't to do with sea level rises but doesn't mean they wont use the flooding as evidence to support their AGW claims as people seem to be gullible enough to accept flawed logic, and the logic here would be. We told you London would be vulnerable to flooding due to AGW. They have already claimed the stormy weather is linked to AGW so there fore AGW has caused london to flood, Even if they had failed to advise us that it could happen soon
On 10 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
if london or the thames valley goes under water then that will focus minds. ....... the political class will have to wonder why the co2 experts with their expensive models and tax funded studies failed them so badly......in some tribes when the witch doctor/medicine man lost their power to help the tribe they were banished or executed.
On 10 Feb 2014, Sean Searl (non sub) wrote:
Seems to me that Julia Slingo can be likened to the Norse people of old. Slingo blames the floods on "climate change" and the Norse used to blame the thunder on the god Thor. Slingo and the Norse were both very sadly lacking in facts due to their false worshiping, and both of their idols are proven to be mythical. As already may have been suggested, at least the Dame can always get panto work!
On 10 Feb 2014, Rob wrote:
Cairngorm Ski Area has now had snowfall on 60 out of the last 64 days
On 10 Feb 2014, Carl T 45 sub NE Wales ele 1m wrote:
Frosty morning here on NWales coast 2 degrees c had to get the ice scraper out.
On 10 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
As for my previous cynic remarks with regard to the 'undemocratic' nature of the EU: Switzerland has dared to hold a referendum concerning immigration quotas. This because, when it initially agreed to open its borders to EU-citizens, the prognosis was an annual influx of about 8000. The reality is that over 80.000 EU-citizens move to Switzerland each year, and that they hold nearly 25% of all jobs. The EU response to the referendum and the result (over half the Swiss population was pro-quota): "The European Commission regrets that the initiative to introduce immigration quota has been approved by means of this referendum." I.o.w. it's not happy that the population has an opinion. The EU now threatens to declare all agreements null & void if Switzerland perseveres in its decision to limit immigration. It's a warning to EU-members considering leaving the EU. "Relax" said the night man, "We are programmed to receive. You can check out any time you want, but you can never leave!"
On 10 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Current (8:30 AM) temps 2.5 and -1.8 Celsius, actual and windchill respectively. Coldest in the country for both temps. Windchill compared with Kollum weather station is 1.5 Celsius colder. Wind SSE, dew point (Kollum) at 1.2 Celsius. It's overcast and decidedly more chilly than yesterday.
On 09 Feb 2014, jim (Beeswing D&G) wrote:
Imminent subs - Bizarre call from bro' in law who is an operations manager for S&SE, reckoning that the service they had got from MetO this winter had been 'fantastic'. All major storms accurately forecast at least a week in advance, allowing him to direct engineers to correct locations in good time, with only critic that storms over forecast during second half of Jan. Shud point out that he is an idiot! As ever, shud have gone to Piers-Savers!
On 09 Feb 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, light SW breeze, very little rain overnight, a day of dramatic cloud shapes, some blue sky & occasional sunshine, a band of moderate rain passing over us in the afternoon, temp got up to 8˚. Out for a spin & walk today, snowdrops in full glory in the woods of old estates, heard two mistle thrush singing, also heard a woodpecker drumming the other day.
On 09 Feb 2014, Craig M wrote:
In Summary tonight there is still an element of improvement still shown from some output, more notably from GFS and ECM. We must remember though we are talking about periods of time outside of the reliable time period still and it won't be until we are nearing midweek that we need the above improvements to still be shown, by which time they can be taken more seriously. In the mean time there is another week or so of misery and more heavy rain and indeed snow for some to get through which is far from welcome before 'maybe' we can look forward to something better.
On 09 Feb 2014, BLACK PEARL wrote:
On 09 Feb 2014, Craig M
"+++ Just seen Slingo on the news just rehashing what she said last year when it was cold."
***************************************************
Yeah a pure political animal in its true sense.
Thats why they made her a DAME heading up the pantomime
On 09 Feb 2014, ciscokid wrote:
100 years ago... Manchester Evening News - Friday February 6, 1914......Mild Weather - Warmest February For Years. The month of February looks like establishing for itself a fresh record in regard to weather. Theoretically we ought now to be experiencing the coldest weather of the year, but, as a matter of fact, the temperature so far this month has been higher than in any corresponding period in recent years. The daily readings up to Wednesday have ranged between 24 (Fahrenheit) and 22 degrees above freezing point, while yesterday’s temperatures of 51.4 decreased the margin to practically 18.5 degrees. This year we have had night frosts on 17 days out of 38, this being a decrease of four on last year. We have had no rain since January 31, and up to yesterday three hours sunshine had been recorded. February is a much-maligned month, supposed of being the month when rain fills the sky. Taking an 80 years’ comparison it is actually the driest month, with October as the wettest.
On 09 Feb 2014, Shaun South Wales wrote:
With recent claims that the many storm battering Britain lately are linked to warming... I can't help but instantly notice a contradiction to this claim.
The IPCC admitted in their last report that there has been a hiatus in the warming for 15 years. So if there has been a pause in the warming as they admitted, then there has been no warming recently to have been causing these storms.
If they are linked to warming, surely the storms would have had to have started before the hiatus 15 years ago as it was approx just as warm then as it is now so the warmth then should have caused similar weather patterns, and every year since as the warmth has paused at this level.
Granted I am just makign a simple logical observation and maybe I have misunderstood something, I am not an expert in this matter. But I think my logic makes an interesting point
On 09 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
"The extremely changeable, very mild and wet weather which has been ongoing this whole winter is caused by a stubborn air pressure pattern. Deep depressions are continuously coming towards the British Isles from the Atlantic Ocean. Remarkable is the very low pressure at the heart of the depressions which arrive NW of Scotland. Such a stubborn pressure pattern is very rare. A statistical analysis by the KNMI shows that the low daily air pressure average in that area this winter happens less than once every 100 years." The KNMI expects that "with the continuous mild weather, this winter is bound to take its place among the top mildest winters in three centuries". Let's see what I posted previously: winter 1759-mild, 1790-mild, 1796-mild, 1822-very mild, 1824-mild, 1825-mild, 1834-very mild, 1846-very mild ... Craig, have you been able to digest those figures already? Me thinks the KNMI is not aware of its own data.
On 09 Feb 2014, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26084625
The latest 'revolutionary thinking' from Dame Julia Slingo…...
On 09 Feb 2014, Peter Storm wrote:
I see that Exacta Weather are going for a cold Feb/Mar with increasing amounts of snow... Given their recent record, I think I'll soon be bringing out a range of oil skin lined mankinis!
Peter Storm
On 09 Feb 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
Steve, Dorset highlights a very good article by TonyB who has done a lot of research on the LIA. I must say my initial thought on Dawlish was 'has the line been maintained'? Indeed the money earmarked for HS2 would be better invested in bringing our river, sewers, rail & road infrastructure up to date after years of neglect. From the article A local resident next to the breach tells me of large heavy objects sucked off the ground before hurtling sideways as the storms fury vented itself against the sea wall, the railway line, and the houses that huddle alongside it. A curious echo of the 1824 reference.The 1901 reference is especially interesting as the remainder of the wall –badly constructed of stone backfilled with rubble-was scheduled to be re-built at that time, but never was. It was that old part that collapsed...It is highly ironic that the first year of operation in 1846 also saw the first breach in the line. In that year Brunel personally inspected 8 breaches in the line..
On 09 Feb 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
Eric Pickles getting a fine dig in "The Somerset Levels were man-made and dredging was a fundamental part of keeping it going, just as it is with any land below sea level right across the world. You need to continuously dredge.‘It worries me that in a politically correct attempt to be more environmentally sound than the next person, something as basic as this has been forgotten.’...'Chris Smith tried to play divide and rule by setting town against country [when he said that the EA had to protect one or the other]. That is a false choice.‘The people on the ground have done a fantastic job, but the agency has lost its way and become riddled with political correctness.' === http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2554901/I-wont-printing-Save-Chris-Smith-T-shirts-says-Pickles-calls-flood-boss-apologise.html === well said. +++ Just seen Slingo on the news just rehashing what she said last year when it was cold. Remember my recent caomms in response to Camoron? Propaganda 101
On 09 Feb 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
..cont...links ===http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1750_1799.htm === http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/02/09/julia-slingo-shark-jumping-in-the-winter-storms/ ===
note there is no evidence just the usual 'suspect' 'could' 'might'...I 'suspect' the MetO are being economical with the truth. What is missed out is that the IPCC, try as they might, have no evidence linking extreme events to CO2, that they predicted droughts & heat, there is a 'missing' hotspot, they also only rated this winter as 15% for above average precipitation. Desperately trying to control the debate long after the horse has bolted and the public know we have been lied to by the EA, MetO and ideology driven quangos +++ I've noted in the interviews of those affected by the flooding there is a lot of appreciation for the rank and file members of the Environment Agency with their contempt reserved for those in London. Quite clearly a total failure of the management structure
On 09 Feb 2014, paul w wrote:
Oh dear,oh dear.....http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/uk/climate-change-lies-behind-storms-1.212240
On 09 Feb 2014, Jens Christian Heuer wrote:
Stronger Storms caused by the weak Sun?
In the last years activity of the Sun has decreased. This means less radiation above all in ultraviolet spectrum leading to a cooling of stratosphere.
Remember: The stratosphere is the second layer of atmosphere above the troposphere, first layer where most of weather is happening. In lower stratosphere there is a lot of ozone absorbing the sunlight especially ultraviolet. So the stratosphere is warming up making for an inversion in temperature ascending from troposphere to stratosphere.
But a cooling of the stratosphere due to less ultraviolett radiation from the Sun is leading to increased vertical differences in temperature giving more angular momentum to low pressure systems. It doesn't matter whether it is a tropical storm (hurricane, typhoon) driven directly by these vertical differences in temperature or an extratropical storm in the mid-latitudes coming up as a turbulence in the jetstream driven by horizontal differences in temperatu
On 09 Feb 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
Let me see when it was cold the MetO were happy to blame oceanic cycles like the amo/pdo but less than 12 months later it's climate change? Have a gander at the 1740s-60s, which came off the back warming of the 1720s-30s. A real mix of wet & windy years, cold winters & warm spells. Inadvertently by highlighting a period 250 years ago the MetO are showing that the weather is far from unprecedented prrelated to CO2. +++ From a comment by
Berényi Péter at the Talkshop ==="Slingo conducts her all out attack with the heavy weaponry of a weasel.– Climate Change is a key factor in the storms– there was not yet “definitive proof”– “all the evidence” pointed to Climate Change– triggered a global weather system– there is no definitive answer for the current weather patterns– all the evidence suggeststhat climate change has arole to play in it– “clustering and persistence” [...] was extremely unusual– It is consistent with what we might expect from climate change"
On 09 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
"I apologise unreservedly and I'm really sorry that we took the advice, we thought we were dealing with experts." said Eric Pickles who admits they relied to much on the Environment Agency's advice ....http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26106290......so for the sake of £5m of dredging we now how 100s of millions cost, trainlines out for weeks and the army called in? Shows what happens when you sacrifice common sense on the altar of 'experts' who claim they are 95% right?
On 09 Feb 2014, Russ 45day Derbyshire subs wrote:
Saskia... The environmentalists seem to forget that many millions of birds and other creatures such as hedge hogs and bats survive every winter because those pesky carbon based humans feed them and put up nesting and roosting boxes to shield them against the cold. Also, electric cars will still flatten the aforementioned hogs, and a great many more wild victims because they won't hear the vehicles approaching...... Storm last night (8th) was a scary one. Several times I thought I felt the house move/vibrate. Extreme gusts, which are rare for us, being situated at the bottom of a valley. Rain, rain and more rain. Our doggy treks are just a long sequence of squelches, punctuated by the occasional expletive as we slip and slide around on the muddy tracks. Everywhere is now resembling the Florida Everglades, it's just so sodden...
On 09 Feb 2014, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
See:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26106290
for official confirmation by Tory Minister that 'the Environment Agency is not staffed by experts'
Or at least, if it were, the experts got it rather wrong on this occasion.
On 09 Feb 2014, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
I wonder whether there is enough historical data to determine whether major Great Lakes freezing episodes co-segregate with major Californian droughts and very snowy Western European mountain winters?
On 09 Feb 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:
This is a real good read about the Sea Wall at DAWLISH here is the link, the comments about the article are worth a read to as well as the links to the History of the line.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/09/black-swans-dispatches-from-the-front-line-of-climate-change/#more-102910
On 09 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
[cont.] - The same person later states that "the desire to turn the whole thing into a natural flood area, combined with the refusal to spend money is an important factor in the equation". (condensed version) It's te same story as we have here. Environmentalists running away with the bit between their teeth, losing all sense of reality in their crusade to "save nature". What they forget along the way is that it has been centuries at least since Nature could go her own merry way. In populated areas it has become a part of a far greater infrastructure, and should be AN important, but not THE most important factor in an equation. And that's me saying this as a fervent and staunch - but realistic! - supporter of Mother Nature. Why can't other environmentalists use their brain as well?
On 09 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Current (11 AM) temps are 5.3 and -0.9 Celsius, actual and windchill respectively. Kollum registers a dew point of 1.3 Celsius. What I forgot to mention, last night when walking the dog at 8 PM I saw a HUGE corona around the moon. It was so large that initially I didn't even notice it. And this morning winds were so fierce that I barely managed to stay afoot. Now, that might be the result of me weighing just over 50 kgs but still ... and it seems as if winds are continuing to increase in strength. The KNMI still has a Code Yellow issued for the western coastal areas, the Alarm Center site a code Orange for the whole of the country and Code Red for the western isles. With regard to the flooding in the UK; I heard somebody just say something in the order of "annual winter flooding is good, it's good for the birds and therefore for the land, but flooding on this scale is a disaster". [cont.]
On 09 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
The heaviest snow in two decades has struck Tokyo and other areas across Japan, leaving at least seven people dead and more than 1,000 injured.....http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-09/an-three-dead2c-500-injured-as-heavy-snow-hits-japan/5247782
On 09 Feb 2014, Rob wrote:
Spaceweather.com forecasting a possible radiation storm. Just what will that do to the weather? Piers, once everything settles down in the storm hit, flood hit areas I suggest you go on a summer lecture tour of the West Country and explain to people why it all happened. A few free to attend meetings may result in considerable numbers of new subscribers keen to be fore warned.
On 09 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
as many would have guessed how long it would take them to say it...... on the bbc site we have Met Office: Evidence "suggests climate change link to storms" .....http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26084625 ......zzzzzz
On 09 Feb 2014, Paul, Bedfordshire (Subscriber) wrote:
Indeed Gerry. But I think it is fair to say that it appears to me that your two posts on the history of the EU are largely a summary of Christopher Booker's article in this weeks Spectator, in which case surely Mr Booker surely deserves a mention for researching and writing it and the Spectator for publishing it?
Link, unfortunately subscriber only.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9130562/how-the-first-world-war-inspired-the-eu/
Luckily someone left a paper copy of it on my train home on Friday :-)
On 09 Feb 2014, jpt wrote:
The 'Warmists' in my opinion HAVE been defeated in that everything that they've predicted has not come true, BUT they still get away with rubbish like this:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26084625 on a daily basis!
How can we let this happen? What can we do about it? I suggest that each time the (mainly) BBC reports such rubbish we complain, vigorously.
They may listen one day.
On 09 Feb 2014, east side wrote:
You couldn't make it up.
Reading a biased BBC this morning.....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26084625
Met Office: Evidence "suggests climate change link to storms">"There is no evidence to counter the basic premise that a warmer world will lead to more intense daily & hourly rain events" except:-
Painfully insulting the intelligence of readers, where a consensus = a clear PAUSE in global warming, + COOLING trend since 1998 despite CO2 levels rising.
Nowhere do they mention the dirty words "low solar maximum" affecting "displaced jet stream" circulation, instead blaming guff on "emanating from changing weather patterns in South East Asia & "associated with higher than normal ocean temperatures in that region"!
In other words their unproven pseudo science is followed by more unproven or blatently unsound statements...."most exceptional period of rainfall in 248 years".
The flooding was simply caused by larget budget cuts, causing water not to flow back to the sea!
On 08 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
[cont.] - As you may know, we voted against it and thereby stopped the process. In 2009, the Treaty of Lisbon took effect. Same constitution, different name. And ... because us Dutch were so naughty as to throw a spanner in the works and embarrass our politicians, we are now no longer able to speak out through a referendum. Because, well, we can't be allowed to kill the dream, now can we? And yes, I am very cynical about this whole EU thing. What started out as, presumably, a well intended idea for the greater good, has turned into a monster devouring the social systems for which Europe initially was known. At least, that seems to be the development here, and what people are perceiving. Anyway.
On 08 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Current (Midnight) temps are 5.6 and 0.6 Celsius, actual and windchill respectively. / @Gerry N Downs - The initial idea behind the EU-concept was to create a "supra-government" in order for the whole of Europe to wield more 'clout' in the international arena and be able to hold its own against large nations like the US, China, etc. And, specifically, against Russia. At least this is what I was told by my (adoptive) grandfather who - amongst other things - was a member of the EAC (European Advisory Commission) 1957 - 1967. He and many of his peers had a dream. However, as you pointed out, this dream then and now is the dream of technocrats, of people who live behind desks and for whom everyday life consists of meetings and shuffling papers as well as 'playing cards'. It is NOT the dream of the people who do not consider themselves to be European but Italian, Austrian, Swiss, Portugese. We, in The Netherlands, had a referendum 2005 on the European Constitution. [cont.]
On 08 Feb 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
Rain overnight, 4˚C at 7.30, SSW wind. Observed and interesting phenomenon: cloud fragments racing from a SSW direction at low level while a higher level layer of clouds came from a SSE direction at a much slower speed. Nothing new but it was a striking demonstration of the movement of different air layers. I think the temperature went up to 7˚ today, I can't read it so easily at night because a little robin sleeps on top of the thermometer under the little roof I made for the instrument, I noticed it for a few evenings because it flies away, tonight I just shone my torch from afar and saw it sitting there looking at me as if to say 'Yes?'. Dry until evening, when rain finally came to us as well, 5˚ at 10pm == Great discussion re historical evidence of hard times; using average temps to pull the wool over our eyes is 'lies, damn lies and statistics'!
On 08 Feb 2014, Brian R. wrote:
Tony Gosling checks out the levels sluce gates did someone "forget" to open them. Check info tab for more:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUjoABQDXj4
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=oa.663471103691009
ukcolumn covered it on the 7th and a few days ago found the eureferendum.com stuff:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AG8F8Pzy-vs&list=UUr_dQZ0irQdRiwVatkuHPcA&feature=c4-overview
On 08 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
one might suspect the neglect of dredging across the country like the neglect of drains in the roads which around here are all full to the top with crud is the by product of people being told warming is 'the problem'. No need to dredge or clear drains if there is going to be no rain? One assume the Environment Agency is a citadel of co2 belief so all their policies will be designed on the 95% certainty of greater warming and drier conditions?
As for cold minimums the usual description of them in the media is of 'frost fairs' like the decades of cooling was some kind of fiesta or fun time holiday? It would be worth someone doing an evidence based documentary in order to correct that narrative?
On 08 Feb 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
cont Monnet returned to the idea post-war and he suggested the European Coal & Steel Community in 1950 and at its opening assembly in 1952 said 'you are the first government of Europe'. Monnet tried to push his idea forward but resigned in frustration in 1955 and adopted a new strategy of working in the background to achieve his aim. He took a key idea from Salter - a customs union - as a starting point for gradually creating his superstate. The Treaty of Rome brought the Common Market into being and began the creeping spread of accumulation of control by unelected technocrats that we see today, even if the name has changed a couple of times. The process of the next treaty has begun that will see the euro countries become under one economic control. A sensible solution to the euro crisis bar the fact that it has no democratic legitimacy as the people won't be asked to vote on it. Except in the UK, where legislation requires a referendum on a new treaty.
On 08 Feb 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Saskia - the European Coal & Steel Community set up in 1952 could be seen as the forerunner the what is now called the EU but you were more correct in saying that it started with Rome - the Treaty of Rome in 1957. However, the idea for the United States of Europe first took seed in the minds of Arthur Salter and Jean Monnet during the First World War who wanted a supranational power to requisition shipping for food supplies. Developing their ideas as officials of the League of Nations, Salter published a book in 1931 The United States of Europe, putting forward that the League’s four core institutions — its ruling secretariat, a council of ministers, a parliamentary assembly and a court of justice — should be turned into a ‘government of Europe’, run though its secretariat by technocrats like himself, above all national loyalties. It was intended to avoid another war but Hitler's rise to power put an end to it until after the war. cont'd
On 08 Feb 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
Good front page photo of the 'forgotten winter' in the Grampian Highlands in the Telegraph on Saturday.
On 08 Feb 2014, Richard Brown wrote:
Is the GFS still looking at a cold spell with possible snow for Britain around the 21st? I hope so! Also, can you post a link for me to look at the chart please? Thanks.
On 08 Feb 2014, Richard Bruce wrote:
I do not know who composed this Hitler parody on global warming but you have to see the funny side.
http://iceagenow.info/2013/10/hitler-global-warming-fraud-video-parody/
On 08 Feb 2014, CraigM (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
Just to throw this in - the LIA was not a food disaster. It was a real mixed bag with v bad & v good years following each other. A good harvest drove prices down but there were also local fluctuations based on grain quality affecting price also. Throw in the corn laws (protective tariffs), price fixing, machine smashing luddites and the European wars of the time & prices are going to be variable not always led by quantity/quality. It was also not just food, this was atime of urbanisation & industrialisation which caused great cultural changes & the push for electoral reform. Civil unrest was widespread. Food or lack of provides a catalyst but it rarely the underlying cause it merely lights the fuse for deep seated tensions.
A very good resource I have found is Agricultural History Review, check out Volume 28 (1980 ) & Volume 32 (1984 ). Goes back to the 50s.
http://www.bahs.org.uk/AGHRvolumes.html
On 08 Feb 2014, CraigM (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
Finally got to see the Horizon show and have to say disappointed with much of it. I was far more impressed with the 1977 video Bob has on his YouTube channel. The Horizon show was the usual gawp & awe at expensive toys scientists get to play with - I've seen better experiments on YouTube at a fraction & using plasma, magnets & electric energy. The electric model experiments being some of the better ones. It appeared to me at least the expensive complex option is first & foremost in their minds. No mention of the current solar quiet until last 2mins with no context to prev times of solar shutdown. Why? It's been spoken of widely by NASA since the previous minimum with a fair bit of media coverage. I don't see the point of the show as others have said. Lots of mention of electro magnetic effects then we are supposed to ignore this as it's a 'nuclear power' source - a theory full of assumptions.
On 08 Feb 2014, Russ 45 day subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
It's already started folks! >> http://bit.ly/1aGLqWI <<
On 08 Feb 2014, Russ 45 day subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
I guess Hannibal must have made good use of one of the 20 year warming periods to cross the mountain passes with his hefalumps. Several warm periods at the time, although very brief, had temperatures well above normal. Melting glaciers anyone?
On 08 Feb 2014, Russ 45 day subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Ron...... wasn't the Roman Warm Period AD? There was a general 'below normal' cooling trend worldwide from around 320BC interspersed with blasts of warmth lasting from 15 to 30 years, with temp's well above normal. But the cooling trend continued AD with much deeper cold periods lasting 30+ years with smaller warm periods of 15 - 20 years. Worldwide, the temp's were well below normal for the vast majority of the period 320BC to 600AD (end of Roman Warm), which tells me that the Jet-Stream was having some serious meanders throughout that period. This must be where the heat came from to drive the temp's up in the Mediterranean, Rome, Greece and N Africa etc, although the Grecian Empire was built during a known very cold period, hence my start date of 320BC. Again, was this due to low solar activity and a lost Jet-Stream? The jet' at present is pulling warm air over the UK and W Europe including the Med', but plunging E Europe (at times the Middle East), into an ice bath.
On 08 Feb 2014, Richard Bruce wrote:
Craig - that link to an article about storms in the Little Ice Age is so interesting that I have posted a link to it on my Facebook page. At least we may educate some more people as to what is really happening with our weather and climate.
On 08 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Forgot to add: these numbers represent the temps for weather in The Netherlands. Source: ROYAL NETHERLANDS METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE.; data gathered by J. Buisman and described by A.F.V. van Engelen, J. Buisman and F. IJnsen.
On 08 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Some quick number crunching based on data on the Dutch KNMI national website for the period 1750-1850. Winter ranges from 1 (extremely mild) to 9 (extremely severe) / Summer ranges from 1 (extremely cool) to 9 (extreme warm). I have left out all data in the ranges of 4-5-6 as this would fall under 'average' or 'normal', except when the same year included an extreme value. First number is WINTER, second number is SUMMER.
1755-7/5; 1757-7/7; 1759-3/8; 1760-7/4; 1763-8/4; 1767-7/3; 1776-7/6; 1778-6/8; 1779-4/8; 1780-6/7; 1781-6/9; 1783-5/9; 1784-8/5; 1785-7/5; 1788-5/7; 1789-9/5; 1790-3/3; 1795-8/4; 1796-3/5; 1799-7/2; 1800-7/4; 1803-7/5; 1805-7/2; 1808-6/7; 1810-6/3; 1814-7/4; 1816-6/2; 1819-4/7; 1820-7/4; 1821-6/3; 1822-2/6; 1824-3/5; 1825-3/5; 1826-5/9; 1829-7/4; 1830-9/4; 1834-2/8; 1838-8/4; 1841-7/5; 1842-5/7; 1844-4/3; 1845-8/3; 1846-2/9; 1847-7/5; 1848-7/5
On 08 Feb 2014, Michael wrote:
Michael here from Japan again.
Well today we have been blessed with at least 80cm of snowfall with a max temp of -5 today making it nice soft powder snow. It has been continuing cold and will stay cold with the possibility of heavy snow again next weekend.
We have snow walls all over the village here now.
We have been averaging around zero-+2 as a general max day time and averaging around -10 most nights with a few going down to -14- -16 or so.
So a very cold and very snowy February, following on from a cold and frosty January. Looking at my weather records that I keep, we have now had more than 80 days straight where the temps have been below freezing at night.
On 08 Feb 2014, Sue H, N, Ireland (part-time subscriber) wrote:
Anyone else seen this little beauty of a BBC Weather article http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/26056360 Wild Weather Around the World. They come across as slightly smug, explaining that 2013 was the 6th hottest in history, on record according to WMO records. The way they explain it all makes you feel like they are treating us all as toddlers, They then refer to dates 1961-1990, umm, that's not the entirety of the worlds history then? Australia had its hottest year ever , but they also quote Antartica having its 2nd coldest ever at -93. They continue to throw about words like climate change, poles warming up faster than equator, jet stream getting stuck!!!! The Sun wasn't mentioned once. It makes me so cross that they can put this out there and people will go 'Oh they must be right, its the BBC'.
On 08 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth) wrote:
CRAIG - I could beat my own drum and supply you with a s**tload of daily (!) data from 200 years and more ago, but ... here's a link with which you can access these data at the Dutch KNMI weather site yourself (it's where I got them from ;-) The files are zipped and just pure data, but there are explanations in English as well on how to read it. http://bit.ly/1eGTnL2 You can obtain meta data from the specific weather stations by clicking on the station's name. If you're stumped by the Dutch language and there's no explanation available, please feel free to holler.
On 08 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Currently (10 AM) 6.1 and 0.6 Celsius, actual and windchill respectively. Dew point at 4.8 Celsius and humidity at 90%, as measured by Kollum weather station. KNMI has re-issed a Code Yellow for the western coastal areas for wind gusts up to 100 km/hr, starting at 11 PM. The Alarm Center (alarm.noodweercentrale.nl) has issued a Code Red for the western Frisian Wadden isles, and a Code Orange for almost the whole of the country.
On 08 Feb 2014, John Kemplar wrote:
I've been lurking and reading for a while and am confused about one thing. Why do you say we are in a "little ice age" when it is not colder? It seems a strange name if it is just meant to suggest greater variability in our weather. Surely "age of variability" would be more appropriate? Can anybody explain?
On 08 Feb 2014, Paul, Bedfordshire (Subscriber) wrote:
Gary I think all we need to know is this. (1) Mainstream forecasts warning of a major atlantic storm (2) Storm is within 24h of the end of an R4. (3) Piers forecasts are +/- 24 hours (4) Therefore significant risk of sotrm being far worse than forecasters expect, so act appripriately and make preparations. We are lucky, our forefathers knew nothing until it arrived.
On 08 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
interesting and fun video by Dr Soon the astrophysicist who wrote Maunder Minimum and the Variable Sun- Earth Connections. Its actually about how the use of satellites by the co2ers to measure sea level changes within 1mm is highly unlikely.......https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gmW9GEUYvA......i actually found the vid on the doctors for disaster site.....http://www.ddponline.org/....given the vicious attacks on Dr Soon by the co2ers he must be doing something right. He talks about experiments being 'too big to fail'. The comparisons between the raw data and the co2 'adjustments' show a big gap. Worth the hour to watch.
On 08 Feb 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:
it has happened in the Past weather History as you can see from this from 1607...
Flood: 2,000 died around the Severn Estuary, Tuesday, 20 January 1606 (OS)/30th January 1607 (NS). Lowlands on both sides of the Estuary suffered inundation, with the Somerset & Gwent levels suffering devastating effects. It is thought that a Severe gale from the west or southwest was responsible, coupled to an astronomically high tide: the excess over prediction was some 2.3m. As well as the cost in human life, much damage / loss of housing etc., and also cattle, sheep & horses perished. There would have been a great deal of salt-contamination of arable fields too. Bristol & Barnstaple were badly affected.
On 07 Feb 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, harder frost than yesterday, magic clear sky earlier on and, believe it or not, a NW breeze – haven't had wind from this direction for ages! At first bright with sheets of stratocirrus, then blue skies and sunshine for the rest of the day, highest temp 5˚, -1˚ by 10pm. The event of the day was a halo around the sun, well, in the clouds of course, around 9.30 and lasting quite a while; I took a picture and sent it to Craig's Pebble Skies.
On 07 Feb 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
Excellent & timely article by Paul Homewood. Some excerpts "In an analysis of Royal Navy ships’ log books from the English Channel and southwestern approaches covering the period between 1685 and 1750CE, Wheeler et al. (2010) note a markedly enhanced gale frequency during one of coldest episodes of the LIA in the late seventeenth century (1685–1700 CE) towards the end of the Maunder Minimum (MM).During these cold years of the MM the gale index – the proportion of days with a gale – was markedly higher,with the warming of the 1730s [1990s?] marked by a reduction in gale activity (Wheeler et al., 2010)....More evidence for increased storm severity during the MM is provided by an archive-based reconstruction (1570–1990) of storminess over the Northwest Atlantic and the North Sea (Lamb and Frydendahl, 1991), which shows a sequence of severe, predominantly winter half year (Oct–Mar)"
storms in the period 1690–1720 CE. === http://bit.ly/1iyw7PX
On 07 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
[cont.] - Population had increased in the previous era, with the northern part of France actually having a larger population than is the case these days. The famine and actions taken afterwards to relieve the disaster were the perfect conditions for the harbingers of the Black Death. Rats! Or more specifically, the fleas that are suspected to have transmitted the disease. They, too, had suffered from starvation, and when grain supplies were transported, the rats followed suit. Many medieval writings from that time period and indeed the period in which the Black Death raged through Europe describe the massive numbers of rats and even mice coming to towns and villages. Even remote communities in Scandinavia were still dependent on imported grain, and they too fell victim to both the rats and the disease. A very good read on the subject is John Aberth's "From the Brink of the Apocalypse: Confronting Famine, Plague, War and Death In the Later Middle Ages"
On 07 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
[cont.] - @ Ron: that little quote does, indeed, sound a lot like Frysk! It's slightly different, at least in modern Frysk: "dan Alexander ús kening wie dea ús goud wie wikselje (feroare) in lead". / @Russ: I know which film you're talking about, and as things have been unfolding lately, I think things maybe weren't as far fetched as they were made out to be! As for wars, expansion, etc. following climate change, well, it stands to reason, doesn't it? "The age of discontent". It would be interesting to analyze more possible situations resulting from climate change. For example, on August 10th 1315, king Edward II was turned away at St Albans had to go to bed hungry because no bread could be found. Food prices in England actually doubled (!) between Spring and Summer 1315, and during the same period the price of wheat in the Duchy of Lorraine increased with 320 percent!! [cont.]
On 07 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Currently (6 PM) the KNMI has dropped all warnings across the country, while the Alarm Center has dropped the Code Red and just has Orange and Yellow for parts of the country. It does have a Code Red for SW England and SW Ireland, SE Norway and parts of France and Spain/Portugal (http://alarm.noodweercentrale.nl/europe-index.html). Actual temps right now, after having dropped significantly as of early afternoon (and it became decidedly uncomfortable!) is now 6.1 Celsius, with a windchill of 1.3 Celsius. Just slightly warmer again than a few hours ago. Dew point according to Kollum weather station is 5.2 Celsius. Btw, I have my eye on a small (amateur) weather station for less than 100 euro, an Alecto WS4000. Slightly out of date, but the reviews are quite positive for such an unpresumptious device. Maybe in a month or so. [cont.]
On 07 Feb 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
About ~ 27 days ago AR (Active Region) 1944 had just passed an earth facing position. Also a large coronal hole, on the northern solar hemisphere, was transiting with a southerly hole a day or so behind. AR1967 (formerly 1944) is almost in the same place with the coronal holes close behind (the southerly hole seems to have advanced a wee bit so is not trailing behind to the same extent). Sunspot numbers are again over 200with flux not far off the same. We have a US deep dip south of cold (snow in Texas again) & the less said for the uk the better (i.e. it's a repeat). But of course it must be co2 ;-) or headless chickens imagening things. +++ @Bob do you have a site to track the moon transiting n vs s of equator? (more lunacy ;-) )Trying to work it into my spreadsheets (predicted the ch, including the southerly hole well but the moon is not an easy one to factor in using what I have-i.e. no equatororial transit). Keep those comms coming. Highly useful and revealing.
On 07 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
can't remember if i added the link to the paper in the last post ......http://cc.oulu.fi/~usoskin/personal/Miyahara_AG06.pdf........also they recommend a book called Maunder Minimum and the Variable Sun- Earth Connections but its £70ish which maybe why no one reads it?
On 07 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
nice paper that examines the data describing the climate/weather during the maunder. They say it began abruptly but recovered very slowly [over decades]. This is flagged up by an extension or disappearance of the 11 year cycle........ If the abruptness is a characteristic of minima then frankly we won't have time to respond to it given politics always lags behind events never mind it looking the wrong way [co2 warming] anyway......they will probably say carbon taxes will need to go up or some such nonsense to stop the 'freezing'. Maunder is mostly covered by sunspot observation and more sunspot data is being recovered from the french archive and elsewhere which makes its useful.
http://cc.oulu.fi/~usoskin/personal/Miyahara_AG06.pdf
On 07 Feb 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
One of the issues I've had with lookbacks before ~1880 is only the extremes get mentioned. If we were to look at the current situation in years to come Dawlish and the Somerset Levels would rightly stand out (my heart goes out to those suffering) as would the early Dec storm. What may get missed is the overall situation of one low after another. If anyone reading can find observations from ~200 yrs ago (either from local library, museum or diaries) for either europe or north america or Russia it will help us all understand the current pattern better. As Piers has said we may have switched already to full on MIA as this has been a strange winter. I noticed the other day the solar poles, which looked to have flipped previously, have flipped back The north solar pole looks to have reverted back in polarity so we have a monopole at present (n+s solar hemispheres with same polarity)....cont...
On 07 Feb 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
@Russ - most films have some quasi basis in fact but that one takes a leap of faith! What seems to be happening is the lows are spawning daughter lows (massive instability in airflow). This looks to be the case on Tues into Weds as we could end up with two lows over the UK with a low of 960 over England/Wales! Whilst Scotland & S/W may be used to this (sort of) it's unusual for the south & a sign of a meridional (running north-south not E-W) jetstream. I think the easiest way to describe this weather is no one alive today has seen the like before (which is the kind of comment we saw during the LIA such as from Samuel Pepys). This doesn't mean it's unprecedented just we hav to go back 200 years or more for a comparable period - which funny enough is what Lockwood et al are hinting at sun wise. I have noticed when we get these vicious spells Texas snows. Hopefully some readers hav some info on Texas snowfall going back over 100yr?...cont...
On 07 Feb 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
Russ,
When Hannibal fought the battle of Trasimeno, the lake was higher than now and it has been estimated that the snowline in the Alps was lower than today. The Roman Warm Period was soon to follow the cooler period that had preceded it when the Gauls had been the dominant military force( they sacked Rome in 387 BCand Greece in 279BC. The armies involved in this 'world war' were vast on both sides ( the Romans had 50,000 casualties at Cannae alone) so the population supporting them must have been vast too, iimplying a large food surplus. Even as late as the time of Hadrian, who re-established strategic agriculture in North Africa, the area was producing a surplus of grain for Rome. We call it the Roman Warm Period for a reason and it is interesting to see that the retreat of the Roman empire and the expansion of the northern culture of the Germanic tribes came at a time of cooling. We would be arrogant in the extreme if we thought we today would be immune to cooling.
On 07 Feb 2014, Gary wrote:
Piers I'm doing research on what people are saying on other sites and even the comments below no one is saying that these apparently winds are as bad as people are making it out to be nobody is hinting for it to be bad anywhere even netweather saying just some winds and all the other forecasters ain't even warning for this apparently devastating system coming in what is that about and then this random picture going around of this dark Atlantic picture moving in on south west and still all forecasters are not saying anything
On 07 Feb 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
Rob
The snowdrop flowers are out in the village and the aconites, with the crocus well into growth, yet just 250-300 metres higher up it's the ' forgotten winter' with another dump of snow here in the Central Grampians ---- very beautiful with the 'hogbacks' looking like gigantic igloos against the blue sky( aye friggin hell, there's actually blue sky today!!)
On 07 Feb 2014, Russ 45 day subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Ron...... Hannibal may have been triggered to go conquering after the drought and temperature drop at the beginning of his reign. Things picked up after that period but not for long. There were extended periods of cold, dry weather (drought) across the globe from around 247BC until 68AD with only brief warm & wet periods inbetween. So the bread basket may have been a little more restricted than the standard historical record shows. They were also feeding far less people. Today, the mass starvation hypothesis is pretty solid logically as far as I can tell. This was a long period of massive civil unrest across the world with millions of hungry mouths slaughtering each other for a promise. Here's something you may find interesting Ron >> http://www.unisci.com/stories/20014/1221011.htm << Civil unrest seems to coincide with solar minimums. Makes you wonder why all deliberate wars are started at solar max? Enemy less willing to fight back??
On 07 Feb 2014, Russ 45 day subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Rhys.... The crop migration you talk of is what will definitely have to happen eventually; you know how slow governments are to react to catastrophe. But Richard is bang on the nail with the mass starvation, because we won't have a few hundred years to make the changes that will be needed. Look at the recent ice storms in Slovakia destroying roughly 40% of trees. These are sustainable woodlands used for timber. This isn't just a single solar minimum, or a bad winter. It took just a few days to cause this much destruction, and things haven't gotten really cold yet. Just imagine the task of accessing and cutting down the damaged trees, then replanting hoping, with fingers crossed, that the new trees won't suffer the same fate. This is where historic anecdotes reign supreme over temperature records.
On 07 Feb 2014, Russ 45 day subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Craig... Re: 8 low pressure systems and a Jet over the Canary's. I wonder how close the 3 gigantic storms in that popular film (!) are to reality. Many bits of science and facts in the film; maybe deep lows 'merging' into a giant was something seen hundreds of years ago. No satellites therefore no idea how big the storms were back then, or what they looked like. ..... Gerry.... I quit the RSPB for the same reasons. They are now the warmists bedfellows! .......
On 07 Feb 2014, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
REALLY INTERESTING STUFF ALL - KEEP DIGGING, I will have more later, but now GILL 1066, STEVE P SEE YOUR UPDATE IN YOUR BOX. What you have stands to a large extent, it depends what you are looking for but that with the update - revision should get us there. We are after all doing something never done before - steering through the early stages of an MIA at least with the knowledge that we have an idea where we are going but don't know if its a slow hill down, a steep one or a vertical drop. I am reading the map as best I can. We are all in this together as someone said. And all please encourage people to buy Feb now, THIS makes it all more interesting for ALL because we will compare what I said first with the revision and after that we will have a better understanding of it all. Thanks Piers
On 07 Feb 2014, Rob wrote:
Today Glencoe Mountain resort report that the day started with blue sky then they had what they describe as a "torrential downpour of snow" where 6 inches/15cm fell in just 90 mins. The wind also briefly increased piling it into large drifts.
On 07 Feb 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
Saskia: as Prof Lamb pointed out in his book and as you have now reminded us, climatic shifts have profound influence on human history, that standard historians often ignore. We can see that even just in Scotland's relationship with England. The Wars of Independence 1286-1328 came during a marked cooling period after a period referred to as goldenage coming at the end of a warm period 'qhen Alisaunder oor kyng was deid oor gowd was changiit into lede' (You may recognise the similarity to Frisian) Likewise, the Union of 1707 that nonimally created the UK out of the two kingdoms came after both countries had been traumitised by harvest failures. We can also see how Norway came under Danish control during a cooling phase and how the Greenland colony died out. Sweden and the UK ( or England as you call it) are not in the Euro but they are both in the EU.
On 07 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
[cont.] @Richard - Funny how those scientists separate LIA from the Black Death. The Great Famine of 1315, which lasted to 1317 or even 1322, was caused by continuous rain resulting in failed crops. This period was marked by extreme criminalism, illness, death and even canabilism and infanticide. The climate was changing drastically after the Medieval Climate Optimum (950-1250 AD), during which temps were so high that wine could be cultivated even in northern parts of Europe. Even when crops were successful again after 1322, food production did not reach the same levels as prior to 1315. Hence the famine and failed crops seriously undermined people's immune systems, and when the Black Death popped up (again) just over 20 years later in 1348, it decimated the European population. So there is an inextricable connection between these 14th and 17th/18th century famines, social declines and the (LIA initiating) climate change. And it all started sooner than most people think.
On 07 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Current (8:30 AM) temps of 8.2 and 4.1 Celsius, actual and windchill respectively. It's been raining continuously since last night. Kollum weather station gives a dew point of 5.5 Celsius with gusting SSE wind. The national KNMI has cancelled the Code Yellow for the northern part of the country, contrary to the Alarm Center which still has a Code Orange issued for the whole country, and a Code Red for the SW coastal area and most southern tip of Limburg province. KNMI predicts wind gusts of up to 85 km/hr, up to 95 km/hr for southern Limburg. / @Paddy - oops, of course you're right! What I meant to say (but obviously got convoluted somewhere between brain and keyboard ;-) was that both Sweden and England don't use the euro currency. It's funny how the EU colors its own history, now defining the 'birth year' of the EU as 1952, while the actual establishment of the EU was 1992 (Maastricht Treaty). If one thinks like that, one might as well state that the EU was founded by Rome. [cont]
On 07 Feb 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
Thank you for the forecast update (above) Piers. The latest Office fax showing conditions for 18z today shows EIGHT low pressure systems in the North Atlantic ranging from 962-983! The jetstream is powerful across the Atlantic and dips down west of the North coast of Africa before shooting back over us. That is an awful lot of energy from mixing airmasses meaning we get one system after another. The one on Tue 11th looks nasty with tight isobars, some could see snow as the air from the west is so cold but long way till then. A look at the current set up and the Met O warnings === http://craigm350.wordpress.com/2014/02/07/batten-down-the-hatches/
+++ The Met Office who don't believe in forecasts beyond 5 days have made a bold prediction of 'similar' for the rest of the month - 21 days ===
http://craigm350.wordpress.com/2014/02/07/uk-met-office-rest-of-february-little-sign-of-change/
On 06 Feb 2014, Wendy wrote:
The future King has waded in again this evening with remarks about Climate Change causing flooding ! Sorry about the pun!
45 day sub.Sleety rain here in the High Peak Derbyshire.TEMP.1.6.
On 06 Feb 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
Beautiful clear start, starry sky, Venus, Saturn, Mars all visible – I've never yet managed to see Mercury, it is so tiny. 0˚C at 7.30 with a slight frost, really sunny until 11, then cloud started moving in, drizzle at midday, drier afternoon, temp rose to 6˚, clear sky at night and 1˚ by 10pm, slight frost again. == Why we're going to run out of oil, NOT http://bit.ly/1fzYoTE == @Saskia: ahem, I think you might find that England IS in the EU :-)
On 06 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
German scientists expect a Dalton while most recently Lockwood is saying a Dalton is more than likely while a Maunder is still possible......Ken McCracken, Juerg Beer, Friedhelm Steinhilber and Jose Abreu studied the solar minimums over the last 9300 years. Based on measurements of beryllium and carbon isotopes as indicators for the intensity of cosmic rays, which are modulated by solar activity, the scientists arrived at the result that the minimum of 2007 to 2009 had similar characteristics as the minimums occurring during the time of the Dalton Minimums of 1780 to 1820. - .......http://notrickszone.com/2013/11/11/german-scientists-solar-cycle-24-points-to-dalton-or-maunder-like-minimum-boding-ill-for-a-climate-cooling/ .....so it would seem the debate has moved not to IF there is going to be a cool period but to WHICH one its going to be?
On 06 Feb 2014, Henk Kraa, Netherlands wrote:
Richard, may be you are right, one thing history remembers well was the severe storm of August 1, 1674, which leveled many houses in northern France, Belgium and Netherlands and cut the Utrecht Cathedral from its tower (also due to poor construction, many believe). Anyway, our MedOffice just issued a code yellow for tomorrow between 14.00 - 18.00. Let's hope the roof tiles stay put.
On 06 Feb 2014, stephen parker subscriber wrote:
I feel your pain gill, me too!
On 06 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
climate in scotland during maunder.....Between 1693 to 1700, Prof Lamb said there were severe famines as crops failed......
Children were sold into slavery and two-thirds of the population died through cold and starvation, while many others were reduced to begging, drawing the climatologist to conclude that the fall in temperature and worsening weather hit the country harder than Black Death.........
With weather patterns disrupted, fierce were winds battered the land......
In 1694, a sandstorm raged at Culbin on the Moray Firth near Nairn, burying homes and ruining an estate. .....http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/highlands_and_islands/8010513.stm ........seems strong winds were the chief feature and that the effect of a mini ice age are not insignificant?
On 06 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
[cont.] the well-being of populations - or form smaller communities that will look after their own. It sounds far fetched and even apocalyptic, but I do think it is a very real and possible scenario. And we need more people like Piers, whom I just noticed warning people of more dangerous situations coming. Like Orwell said: "In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act".
On 06 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
[cont.] These days it's just "non-developed" populations and Eastern Europeans that will happily string up a ruler if he doesn't look out for their best interest. Modern influential (!) power mongers are aware of the fact that we consider ourselves much too civilized to do any such thing, and look at what they have been getting away with. An article in The Economist earlier this year stated that, with the exception of new EU-members (who are suddenly getting an economic boost), the only countries in Europe who can look forward to economic growth are England and Sweden, both NON-EU members! And even Cameron obviously is interested in other things than his own people, as I just saw him ignore a reporter's question of when he would be visiting the storm and flood damaged areas. If and when The Big Cold is coming, we either need another form of government in place - one that is able and willing to stand up to those that pursue far larger interests than just [cont.]
On 06 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
@ Rhys & Gerry - Like I said a day or so ago: the national politicans aren't really the ones that drive world power. They're just the façade, keep things normal as it were. Most of them are just trying to edge their way up into more influential groups. And the formation of the EU is just part of that. A consensed, consolidated playing field which is much easier to govern than all those silly little countries whose populations all want something else. Trust me, the scenario played out in the movie 2012 with regard to "just us chickens, screw the rest" isn't too far removed from reality. Yes I agree that growth areas could well be developed in places where the cold won't be too big an influence, but don't trust regular governments to set that up for us. Even if they wanted to, they can't anymore with that EU monster gaining more and more power. Back in Hannibal's days, populations still exerted enough influence on their rulers to persuade them to stick up for them. Or else. [cont.]
On 06 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
rhys- while from records we see ice ages can set in within a year or so i doubt the sahara would become a bread basket in the same time frame ? Also the population size of the world now and in the roman empire are in a different order or magnitude?..... If we are faced perhaps with a maunder type mini event during which there was starvation, crop failures etc even with the low baseline population as it was then we would see big social and political change?.... During maunder we saw the rise of the big european and british empires. A maunder would not result in extinction but people might not be able to pay the fuel bills..... The IPCC third report 2001 denied even the existence of maunder or medieval warm period although in later reports they finally had to reluctantly admit there was something going on . ...risks of cooling to society and political systems are just as great as heating up ones. which does the evidence point to?
On 06 Feb 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA sub wrote:
I see everyone is in top form. As for today’s solar activity: SSN 234, SFI 194, the highest values in a while; and a rarity, Bz negative now for 15 straight hours (continued linkage to Earth’s magnetic field.) Also looking at AIA 211/193/171, we can see the polar coronal holes are nearly symmetrical, as well as the hemispheric active regions, looking like a “balanced” sun. Is that something we’d expect after solar max? From IceAgeNow.com: US - 4406 record cold temps, 1259 record warm temps, and 1073 snowfall records. Here, we are already at seasonal average annual snowfall. Michigan and Wisconsin having coldest winters on record, since late 1890s. The US jetstream is very far south right now, considering we're near first-quarter moon, when jetstream "usually" is on its way northward, see http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map.gifACE Bz chart here http://www.solarham.net/solarwind.htm. Question for Piers: is the extreme southward jetstream caused by extended southward Bz?
On 06 Feb 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
You are right Rhys and history is a good teacher. During the time from Hannibal to the early imperial period of Rome, North Africa was a wheat basket that fed whole empires and in the struggle for the throne on the late 1st century, Vespasian secured it by invading North Africa and cutting off the grain supply to Rome. Maybe it's a good time ahead for Scottish reindeer herding and fishing for Arctic Charr.
On 06 Feb 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
London's cranes are back in action as it is just raining now. Saskia - I'm afraid with your story you are crediting politicians with a degree of common sense and intelligence that they do not possess. Most just love the life of power. Feted for being an MP or councillor. Enjoying fine dining - eating Ferro Rocher chocolates at receptions. If they really want to govern and achieve something why are they all so keen on the EU which prevents them from doing so much? Iceland's politicians would love to join the EU but their farmers and fisherman would chuck them in the nearest bubbling volcano if they tried. And while Mr Patterson is unwell - I wouldn't rush back if i were you - Call Me Dave rides to the rescue with lots of promises, as usual. Soon, of course, he will find that he can't do this, can't do that, because the EU won't allow it. Funny how flooding got worse when Barbara Young [ex RSPB] took over the EA. I quite the RSPB their warmist policies.
On 06 Feb 2014, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Richard
The assumption of mass starvation is a bit simplistic as you assume that if things get too cold to grow in Canada, the Northern Mid Weest of the USA, Ukraine and Russia's grain belts that nowhere else will change climate to counter that.
More likely is that the grain belt will move south in North America, rendering little change overall in North American production.
Unclear what will happen in Europe, but North African sand may get more rain and you may get a new more fertile growing zone in Iberia and the Southern Mediterranean.
India may cool down and be suitable to grow different crops. Growing in China may shift southward and the ARgentinian growing fields may move north.
I don't think people think these things through too carefully.
What is true is that the northern latitudinal limit for commercial crop growing will shift further south.
On 06 Feb 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS now going for a week and more quite sharp cold with the chance of major UK snowfall 21st February onwards---but can we really trust them?
On 06 Feb 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
The agenda we all have to face is just how fast the cooling will be. Recent evidence suggests that we throw out the old historic view that ice ages, little or otherwise, do not happen over a thousand years, but may in fact only take less than 100 years to get established. With a severe world-wide drop in temperature, and all the associated chaotic weather extremes that go with it, taking perhaps SIX MONTHS! I must search for information about historic records of solar eclipses, to see if anyone noticed the dimming of the solar corona during solar minima. From Alvén to Hansen, the corona has been known to dim and shrink during solar minimum, then brighten and stabilise during solar max. So logically, the corona should all but disappear during a Solar Grand Minima when the sun is thought to go into hibernation. New ice age anyone? Tectonic trauma could induce sea floor volcanism at this time & warm the oceans, thereby releasing huge amounts of CO2, hence the trends seen in 'ice cores'.
On 06 Feb 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Saskia.... I agree the ruling elite will want to avert panic.That would bring their house of cards crumbling down around them. They have no idea how much oil is left to discover, so, to be on the safe side, better make plans to conserve as much as possible, because when the deep cold sets in 'fossil fuel' use will treble overnight. Look at the problems facing millions of Americans in the past couple of weeks. Using ice breakers to break ice up to (300mm) thick on the Hudson river, so heating oil supplies could continue >> http://iceagenow.info/2014/02/video-breaking-ice-hudson-river/ <<. Prices of propane for heating shot up more than 300% in less than a week. This is only the beginning! Wait a few years until solar minimum; we could be in for a nasty surprise, unless you are a millionaire with several homes in different parts of the world, and a private jet, then I guess you look forward to some awesome skiing.. Fancy the future king talking about being headless...how bizarre!
On 06 Feb 2014, Gill 1066 East Sussex - subscriber wrote:
So is my SE forecast from the 10th till the end of the month now a non-starter? I only got it last Friday!
On 06 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
What I forgot to add is that, in lieu of the scenario I just described, YEAH to Piers for undauntedly proceeding to shake and wake people up to what's really going on with our weather! The more we know, the better prepared we can become. Because I don't think we can depend on 'our leaders' to look out for us. Like my father once said: "One day, when you're looking for a helping hand, you will find it attached to the end of your own arm." And to that of Sir Piers, of course ;-)
On 06 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Might it be at all possible that this whole GW thing has been instigated in order to prevent worldwide panic? Because you can be sure the upper echelon is totally aware of the (f)actual climate situation. Imagine a bunch of world leaders being told that things are going to cool down . A LOT! "Oh no, that means people will want to move to where they are better protected and have a better chance of survival." I.o.w. a huge influx of people in the western *cough* civilized part of the world. Which in turn will result in stress on food production, stress on utilities, stress on housing, stress on fuel, etc. What better way to prevent this than to spin a tale of GW? Add in a few disaster scenarios to make it look less fairy tale like, but in the end, that's all it is. A fairy tale, a bedtime story to set people's minds at ease. At least, that's what I think is highly likely.
On 06 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
ON THE CAUSE OF ICE-AGES.......
By Fred Hoyle and Chandra Wickramasinghe........
"The renewal of ice-age conditions would render a
large fraction of the world's major food-growing
areas inoperable, and so would inevitably lead to the
extinction of most of the present human population.........http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/ce120799.html ..............interesting paper from 1999. If with current human population an ice age or mini ice age would create widespread starvation then its not some trivial matter. Jacking up on c02 theories might make people 'feel high' but being wrong and denying any other possibility also has risks?
On 06 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
The astronomical theory of the Ice Age............. " Very small changes in the Earth's orbit result in only a 4 degree Celsius in the global mean temperature which can have very dramatic impacts on the Earth system. One such change is shown above. The tilt (obliquity) of the Earth with respect to is orbit around the Sun varies between 22.2 and 24.2 degrees. When the tilt is low (between 22.2 and 23.4 degrees) ice sheets grow and when the tilt is relatively high (between 23.4 and 24.2 degrees) the ice sheets melt away.".............you mean warming might not be due to co2?......... http://earth.rice.edu/mtpe/cryo/cryosphere/topics/ice_age/compare.html
On 06 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Current (8 AM) temps 6.3 and 1.3 Celsius, actual and windchill respectively. A code yellow has now been issued by the KNMI for the whole of the country for tomorrow, with expected wind gusts reaching 90 km/hr. The site alarm.noodweercentrale.nl (alarm center for violent weather) has issued a code orange for the whole, and even red for the SW part of the country. The wind has indeed picked up a fair bit by now and seems to be coming from the SE. - With regard to 'climate warming' since the Industrial Revolution: I remember a chart several years ago that compared CO2 rise against human activity. Remarkably, CO2 levels were LOWER during the Industrial Revolution, quite contradictory to what one would expect. I'll try and hunt down that chart again, I think it was issued by scientists debunking GW. Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised if it can't be found again.
On 06 Feb 2014, cjorach wrote:
Climate Alarmists like President Obama believe that nothing about Climate Change is Natural. The Climate started to change 100 years ago due to man's sin against Nature. Man's sin against Nature was the discovery of fossil fuel which led to the Industrial Revolution. The Industrial Revolution, in the lunatic beliefs of Climate Alarmists, is responsible for destroying Mother Earth. According to Climate Alarmists beliefs, the only way to save Mother Earth from the sins of man is to destroy the instrument of that sin, Fossil Fuel. Once Fossil Fuel has been destroyed than man can go back to being one with nature. The problem with this belief is that prior to the discovery of fossil fuel life was short and brutal for 99% of humanity. Mother Earth didn't fare that well either as forests were chopped down for fire wood and rivers and lakes were polluted with human waste. Typical progressives promising Utopia delivering Hell.
On 05 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
cameron chaired cobra and said £100m would be spent because of the flooding. Horse and bolt are words that come to mind. Suppose they spent half ie £50m on looking into sun/lunar based models? wouldn't that be a better investment?
On 05 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
New Climate Data Rigging Scandal Rocks US Government.......Globally, temperatures plummeted in 1999, but they didn’t in the US graph.".....This created a huge jump (greater than one degree) downwards for all years prior to 2000.......The ramifications are that hundreds of bilions of tax dollars have been misallocated to "solve" a non-problem, .............http://www.principia-scientific.org/breaking-new-climate-data-rigging-scandal-rocks-us-government.html
On 05 Feb 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, raining already, SSE wind as per usual, the rain hardly let up during the whole day. Working in the tunnel was accompanied by the deafening drumming of rain on plastic, temperature rose to 6˚, still the same at 10pm. MO is promising a sunny day tomorrow. == Re: voting – all that does is give our consent for another 4 years of bankruptcy, funded by, yes you guessed it – us:-( … and the so-called rulers get off scot-free because they live in limited liability land.
On 05 Feb 2014, Lorraine wrote:
Guernsey Channel Islands high winter tide and extreme high winds causes damage of flooding on the East coast which happens to be the most populated. Granite sea walls were breached and the sea tried to claim back the land.
I notice on the channel 4 news they were referring more to the shift in the jet stream rather than consequences of climate change.
On 05 Feb 2014, theo subscriber wrote:
Here's some data for the winter so far here in south Lincs. Temperatures didn't fall to winter values at all until nearly mid December. My bees which usually stop foraging in October finally came to a standstill on the 13th December when temperature dropped below 13C. From 13th December until Feb 4th:
Average maximum temperature combined day and night is 7.9 (7.899) deg C. Average minimum combined day and night temperature is 3.9 (3.87) deg C. Both are exceptional averages, and the range is small. Averages can hide interesting extremes, but the extremes over that period are also exceptional, high being13.2C on the 16th December with only one other day reaching 12C (6th Jan). There have been only three sub-zero recordings; night of 12/13th (-1.7C); night of 19-20th Dec ( -2.4C); night of 20-21st (-1.2C).
Wind predominantly SW; only 1 period of S and 2 periods of light easterlies.
In short, it has not only been mild, but very steady.
Must get myself 40 gallon rain gauge.
On 05 Feb 2014, stephen parker subscriber wrote:
CRAIG you are right. Notice its only the rich and the politicians saying it
On 05 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
OMG the RAIN!! Ehh, actually, no. No rain. Not even a drop of it. Predicted for this morning and this evening, the rain has decided to exit left stage. What did happen today was a sunny afternoon and early evening with positively balmy temps of ca. 7 Celsius. The wind has picked up, however, and code yellow and even orange has been given out for coastal areas. Not our vicinity though, at least not yet.
On 05 Feb 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
Indeed Solarman, the photo in the Courier todaty, says it all about the unusually deep snow in the Grampians.
On 05 Feb 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
Paul Homewood rips the 'increasing' meme here
Link ===
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/02/04/nailing-the-increasing-rainfall-lie/ === http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/02/04/its-been-wet-for-the-last-few-months-in-england-but-it/ === comment in last link have Mediaeval observations of flooding.
On 05 Feb 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
Imagine if someone said this lunacy pre CAGW scare ===
"in the face of climate change and greatly increased rainfall, the Somerset Levels, and other flood-prone areas, should indeed be gradually abandoned by humans. Retreat is the only sensible policy,” says Colin Thorne, professor of physical geography at Nottingham University and a leading flood expert. “If we fight nature, we will lose in the end.” === as nature will reclaim everything eventually why not give up on survival altogether now? Just think of all the wasted effort the poor professors' ancestors went through 'fighting nature' -cultivating land & livestock, building dwellings, irrigation, viaducts, monuments to track the heavens- so he can spout waffle from Ivory Towers. The history of the Levels (or New Orleans or Holland) is wasted on insensitive ideologues that are 'flood experts'....cont....
On 05 Feb 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
The climate (non) debate has really encapsulated what is wrong with our ruling system. LibLabCon all offer us the same #greencrap just with varying degrees of devotion. Not one of those parties offers anything fundamentally different. That is no choice. If I said you had a choice between being punched in the head or kicked in the nether regions I am not offering choice just 'empowering' you in how I cause violence to you. We have to reverse the tables & give them a choice - do what we say or you're out (sadly won't work as they'll swan off to a directorate position as the convicted liar Huhne did but still it would allow some redress). === Gill mentioned a few days back water worse than 2012. Same here my garden a bog in places. Think it's the lack of solar radiation (short days)& low sun so less evaporates inbetween all the rain. On the upside it will be easy digging deep this year so planning for that now. How diff from baked dry soil in 2010.
On 05 Feb 2014, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
Steve D this could be worse than 1907.In January we had 376mm here in Monmouthshire & we have had 55mm already in this DRY February and we are expecting another 70/80mm in the rest of the week. I can see slat 9x coming before long!
On 05 Feb 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
...cont... 2. " What we really have is more akin to "THE Reichstag Fire" whilst I might not put it quite in those terms, it is so true and mirrors the thoughts I had on the visit (did he call the locals headless chickens for blaming the Environment Agency/govt rather than climate?) We humans survive in many landscapes by ongoing management, maintenance & improvement of our environment. Katrina was not a disaster for swampy low lying New Orleans because of the hurricaine per say but because of weak & poorly maintained defences which let the water in. If you don't fix a leaking roof, don't blame the rain when it collapses. IMO such negligence is akin to manslaughter. Trying to capitalise on disaster for political means makes one an ambulance chasing climate vulture trying to fly one of these === http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_flag === can't help but feel it is intentional although blind fanatical devotion to dogma/idiocy plays its part.
On 05 Feb 2014, Craig M (@CraigM350, Berks, sub) wrote:
@ Karl - both. It's all down to which side of the jetstream we lie. It's not impossible for instance, to have the S/SE in cold continental air flow (sourced from Siberia or Scandinavia) and the North in mild Atlantic air sourced from Africa! LIA periods are a mix of extremes spread across all seasons. Steve D has excellent comms below highlighting this. === Just to highlight two of Piers comms. 1. " The relentless series of storms in Ireland, Britain & NW Europe (since October) including 100% confirmation of WeatherAction R4 and R5 intensification of systems and down-powering in Solar Factor quieter periods." certainly for here it is only during these R periods that any systems have penetrated, being mostly kept west in non R periods...cont...
On 05 Feb 2014, Russ 45 day subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Steve Devine.... Whenever I see data from 1907 I wonder what the population was, how it was distributed countrywide, what the crop type/planting times were, how many serious weather enthusiast there were and how many were recording data...accurately! So few people and so many variables. The error margins must be huge. Then we have the modern day massaging of data, followed by misleading misinterpretations of said data. Having said that, a few local high levels can skew the average, which is what the data manipulators do to nudge the figures higher... I would much rather read the anecdotes from the people who were waist deep in bark & icy pigeon eggs. These stories give solid credence to the weather extremes of the time, and although I find the temperature data interesting, it really only matters what local extremes were, because the average over a whole region becomes pretty meaningless as far as explaining what was really happening at the time. Thanks for putting the effort in though!
On 05 Feb 2014, Solarman wrote:
Piers shouldn't beat himself up about lack of snow everywhere in UK
http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/local/perth-kinross/more-snow-than-sochi-is-the-cry-from-glenshee-1.205170
Yep, that the top of the ski lift pilon. Constant precipitaion in E Scotland (unusually) has been snow above 600m form most of last month. No sign of letting up. Cairngorm and Glenshee have more snow than Whistler as well as Sochi
On 05 Feb 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
COBRA meeting called as SW England and Wales bear the brunt of the storm. More power cuts, more flooding. Winds increasing now in Greater London as the first rain band crosses from West to East. 92mph gusts recorded... http://news.sky.com/story/1206599/severe-weather-warning-as-92mph-winds-hit
On 05 Feb 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK (sub) wrote:
This was the weather the last time that the sun spot numbers were this low.....
1907 (July):
1. During the afternoon of the 22nd July, 1907, HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS occurred across a wide area of England, Wales, Ireland and Scotland. These caused extensive FLOODING in urban areas and severely DAMAGED standing crops in the countryside. In Watford (Hertfordshire), significant FLOODING occurred. This was caused by over 60 mm of RAIN falling in a couple of hours. In South Wales, at least 80 mm of RAIN was recorded from one location in Monmouthshire, together with a SEVERE HAILSTORM and associated LIGHTNING DAMAGE. The HAIL (possibly as large as 'pigeons eggs') completely blocked a river & stripped trees of bark and foliage and was still evident 10 days later (as ice). (Currie, TEC & others)
1907 (October):
1. Very WET, though there were at least 18 wetter such-named months in the England & Wales Precipitation series (1766-2005). The EWP figure of 153 mm represents roughly 170% of the serie
On 05 Feb 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
The wind was already gusting as I walked home from the station last night. The rain came soon after I got home and was still coming down around 1am. Windy with odd patch of blue sky this morning. I suspect the rain had stopped sometime earlier since there were odd dry patches on the pavement. In London, the wind is howling round the building and all the construction cranes are at a standstill due to the wind speed. Re Steve's list - it would be interesting to compare the rainfall with the England and Wales rainfall record which goes back much further than the UK one. Analysis of the washout summer of 2012 showed that it had happened before and was not unprecedented. After all, a record from 1910 is only just over a century and given the various longer solar cycles, it is not yet a record of one cycle for many of them. Think Arctic ice records, which from satellite only go back to 1979 - ignoring the questions raised over accuracy by NASA itself - that isn't one 60-70yr cycle.
On 05 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
Expert and Government Review Comments on the IPCC WGI AR5 Second Order Draft – General is now available for download........it really is a frightening read about the politics that goes into the ipcc report .. The most useful is it describes the caveats which never make it to the media ........http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/Ch00_WG1AR5SOD_RevCommResponses_Final.pdf
On 05 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
another report about how the ice is melting lol .......http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/jan/20/climate-change-clear-and-present-danger......but another look at the ipcc report by a professor claims its filled with falsities especially over ice......http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/03/the-2013-ipcc-ar5-report-facts-vs-fictions/....and while co2ers still claim 95-100% certainty another report shows out of their 117 predictions 114 were wrong [97% ie the same percent by which they believe they are right] ........http://www.westernjournalism.com/global-warming-predictions-proven-wrong-97-4-time/ ........in the meantime they did not predict the flooding nor can they predict when it will end claiming all such predictions are impossible.
On 05 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
steve ..apologies i got the jan date wrong. ignore my post.
On 05 Feb 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
Thanks for the excellent summary Steve. Pressures of life sometimes shorten our memories of these events and telescope them in our mind map. Though there has been little snow in the south, it has been cool enough in this so-called mild winter for a record dump of snow above 1000-1500ft in the Scottish Highlands. Rhys has also pointed this out in his posts. The ski report from Glemshee the other day was basically ' too much snow, but we hope to dig out the ski lift in due course. We are not in the cold loop of a jetstrean like much of eastern North America, yet here we are with unusual amounts of long lying snow in the area most likely for glaciation.
On 05 Feb 2014, richard wrote:
steve....Warmest January on record...?.....er not quite. That was the the usual bbc trick of creating a headline out of abridged data. If you abridge data you could have a global warmers headline everyday about it being the warmest/coldest/wettest/driest in this or that region, city or street. .....Its important to be consistent with data. If you compare a regional variation against a NATIONAL figure then say the regional is greater than the National giving it the same equivalence without caveat then that is basically fraud to generate a headline e.g you could have a headline screaming ......ITS THE HOTTEST EVER.......[in luton] but that does not mean what happened in Luton is the same as the national. The BBC is just a relay station for co2 nonsense. They never even covered the parliamentary examination of the IPCC 5 report probably because it exposed inconvenient truths
On 05 Feb 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
(CONT'D); Apr 2007 – Warmest April on record...Summer 2007 – Wettest May-July/Summer on record (as forecast by WeatherAction)...May 2008 – Warmest May on record...Aug 2008 – Gloomiest August on record (60% of sunshine)...Jan-Aug 2008 – Wettest Spring and Summer consecutively on record (as forecast by WeatherAction)...Oct 2008 – Earliest snowfall in London since 1930s...Dec 2008 – Coldest December since 1976... And I'm spent! Please enjoy what has been an exhaustive list of record-keeping for the last 6/7 years. I'm sure if you read all of my (4) comments you'll be in no doubt whatsoever we've gone through extreme conditions which are now shifting us into a much colder gear. Thanks for the positive feedback guys, it means a lot. Piers - feel free to use this as evidence and validation of your forecasts if you need to. :-)
On 05 Feb 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
Fair enough Piers, here are some more historical truths about the beginning of the MIA...27/10/05 – Warmest October 27th day since 1888...Jan 2006 – Widespread media hype about drought conditions setting in...March 2006 – Coldest March for 10 years, driest Winter for 17 years...May 30th 2006 – Sleet showers reported along eastern coastal towns...June 2006 – Thames Water apply for Drought Order. Heat and smog warnings issued in SE Eng...June/July 2006 – Heatwave and flash flooding across Southern England...July 19th 2006 – 36.5c recorded in Sussex, highest ever July temp...July 2006 – Warmest UK month on record with CET of 19.7c according to Meto...Sept 21st 2006 – Ex-hurricane Gordon smashes into SW England...Sept 2006 – Warmest September on record with CET of 15.4C in UK...Dec 2nd 2006 – 99mph gusts recorded in Cornwall...Dec 7th 2006 – Mini-tornado spotted in NW London...Jan 11th 2007 – 70mph winds cause 5 fatalities in England...Jan 2007 – Warmest January on record...(CONT'D)
On 05 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
[cont.] To these people, borders basically don't exist; it's all about regions. I don't think much has changed since then. Just look at the ongoing effort to create a united Europe, which will be much easier to use as a 'playing field'. It's also why certain decisions by governments seem to be completely stunning because of the negative effects on the (national) population; it's simply because We, The People don't matter in this global game of chess. We're just the working drones, the cannon fodder if you will. Laying fault with heads of state like Obama or Charles therefore is - although completely understandable from the ordinary man's point of view - useless. They are nothing more than puppets on a string and will be 'canceled out' if they threaten to develop a mind of their own. It's a simple as that.
On 05 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Current (8 AM) temps 3.4 and -2.3 Celsius, actual and windchill respectively. The local in-between-village roads (well, in as far a piece of broken asphalt where 2 cars can't pass can be called a road ;-) were very icy when walking the dog earlier this morning. Warmish, SE wind; little ice left on the drainage canals, some patchy snow hiding along the banks; birds singing, ducks fighting ... oh yes, and a cute tableau of a white domestic goose which has taken 2 young cygnets under its wing ;-) The air is still clear but rain has been predicted for the next week or so, with temps becoming colder. The week after that supposedly will see temps 'around normal'. - RE comments by Russ and Steve, etc. Back in the Seventies, my grandparents ran a small non-political advisory organisation which advised (emerging) governments on the 'games being played'. Basically it boiled down to there just being a few groups worldwide which pulled all the strings. Money wise, power wise, influence wise.[cont]
On 05 Feb 2014, occassionally David wrote:
The article on the BBC about the "tidal wave of cancer" is about setting the stage for plausible deniability over the consequences of the three as yet uncontained nuclear meltdowns in Japan. At least 300 tons of highly radioactive water makes its way into the Pacific every day and has been doing so for the best part of the last 3 years. And that doesn't include the radioactivity getting into the air (no one, neither man nor machine has yet made it into Building 3 so high are the levels of radioactivity). Health problems are showing up in Hawaii and West Coast US and the ecosystem in the Pacific is collapsing - the whole globe is contaminated by now and so cancer rates are going to skyrocket. So the Establishment lays the ground work for blaming it on sugar and alcohol. The usual pack of lies from the usual liars. www.enenews.com -for the facts that the MSM are deliberately ignoring. We really have soiled our nest this time.
On 05 Feb 2014, Piers_Corbyn (twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
THANKS ALL FOR TOP INFORMATIVE COMMS === BRIAN R Yes a very instructive EuRefurendum article AND I would add it's obviously no accident that the would-be king who worries so much about headlessness (remember Charles I) calls Climate Realist Scientists Headless chickens and then 3 days later with Goebells-esque precision turns up at the (drain-blocked by policy decisions) Somerset Levels to show the world the "consequences of CO2 climate change". What we really have is more akin to "THE Reichstag Fire" plus ongoing rains from the storm series WeatherAction predicted from OCTOBER === STEVE D Great List and really we should start it with our WeatherAction predicted Floody summers 2007, 2008 and 2009 which were the begining of the shift to more Jet Stream South (and split jet at times too). Piers
On 04 Feb 2014, Brian R. wrote:
Somerset levels an eco flood.
http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=84687
On 04 Feb 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
4˚C overnight, 6˚ by 7.30am & stayed there all day, very light SSE breeze, a bit of respite before the next lot of wind & rain arrives. A couple of hours of rain in the morning, dry until evening when it rained a little again. Some sunshine in late morning, lovely cirrus mare's tail clouds – it seems to me that they often arrive before a wild bit of weather. == @Russ: dead on the nail re the environmental agenda, a many-layered deception where many different people and agencies can put their snout in the trough, all the while putting more economic pressure on ordinary folk. Forgive me if I go on, but any newcomers to this phenomenon read http://green-agenda.com/ to see how that cake is constructed.
On 04 Feb 2014, joe Linton wrote:
Great comments from Steve Devine. Really thought provoking.
On 04 Feb 2014, Karl (occ. sub) wrote:
With a wild jet stream and general cooling, can we expect heat extremes during summer or are the extremes of a cool or cold nature? All thoughts welcome!!
On 04 Feb 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
CONT'D... June 2013 – Media coverage of forest fires in USA which claimed lives of 19 firefighters on 30th June in Arizona. Nothing about record high Arctic ice levels or lack of hurricanes. October 2013 – Storm of St. Jude causes widespread devastation across England and Wales with 99mph gusts recorded at Isle Of Wight. Winter 13/14 – One of the wettest and stormiest winters in living memory with widespread severe flooding especially across SW England (Devon/Cornwall/Somerset). January 2014 – Wettest January on record in parts of Southern England since records began (1910). “Polar vortex” causes record cold and snowfall across E/NE USA. February 2014 – Well above average Antarctic ice content barely reported in mainstream media reports.
I know we've had virtually no snow in Southern England but as Piers said, this is the transition from normal to MIA conditions. The Jet Stream piling over the UK will eventually plunge south. All of the above is just Mother Nature gear-changing!
On 04 Feb 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
Anyone need reminding we're in a Mini Ice Age?
Here goes... February 2009 – Worst winter for 20 years. Significant snowfall in early Feb. November 2009 – Wettest November on record in UK. Winter 2009/10 – Coldest winter in 30 years. August 2010 – Coldest August for 17 years with “no hot days” in UK. November 2010 – Earliest snowfall since 1993. December 2010 – Coldest December in 120 years in UK as predicted by Piers Corbyn of WeatherAction. June 2011 – Coolest June since 1991 in UK. August 2011 – Coolest summer since 1998 in UK. April ’12 – Wettest April since records began. April – June 2012 – Wettest April – June on record in UK, wettest June. August 27th, 2012 – Coldest August night on record. Frost in Scotland. Summer 2012 – Wettest summer since 1912. 2012 – Wettest year on record. March 2013 – Coldest March since 1962. Easter 2013 – Coldest April on record in UK. May 2013 – Coldest Spring in 50 years. Widespread reports of crop failures across UK. Cold seas reported. TBC....
On 04 Feb 2014, suzy dorset wrote:
well said Russ, the powers that be seem to have their own cunning plan.
On 04 Feb 2014, Rhys Jaggar 30d annual subscriber wrote:
So much snow at Glencoe and Glenshee that they're having to dig out the ski lifts.
See www.winterhighland.info to get pictures and more details……
Here in NW London we've finally had 3 days without rain (odd spot this morning but nothing really) so the garden is no longer a lake. Pretty muddy still though.
Mild conditions see spring bulbs growing well and the winter beans progressing rapidly.
No possibility of drought before July unless we get Mediterranean conditions through May and June.
On 04 Feb 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Russ again hits the nail on the head re voting. I stopped bothering years ago as I live in a Tory constituency where the sheeple will always vote the Tory back in so what's the point? Same with local elections, and even when the colour does change the policies often don't - or barely so. And given that Lib, Lab and Tory all believe in eco-madness and the EU where do you put your cross? There is little to choose between the parties on many things and given the amount of areas where control has been ceded to the EU, they haven't got a lot left anyway. With no power of recall, they tell a pack of lies to get elected, ditch it all when they get in knowing that they have 5 years before they do the whole charade again. Democracy has two elements - power and people. While the people may vote they have no power.
On 04 Feb 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Russ is correct, the greens want to see the destruction of the Western economy. I am currently reading about renewable energy and the EU's own reports admit that it will cause a drop in GDP, loss of proper jobs and less wealth for the general populace. They pin their faith on fairy-tale proportions of the global renewable technology market. I doubt that the EU share is anywhere near what they hope for and so rising energy prices will see industry leaving the EU. Their delusion is just as great as our own DECC who, when challenged over the increase in energy due to renewables, quote riduculous increases in efficiency that will keep bills down. At least we can celebrate to culling of Yeo by the good folk of Suffolk, although Call Me Dave will probably grease him into the Lords.
On 04 Feb 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Friday's rain caused the river Mole to flood again on Saturday. The clouds have finally parted since then but it is chilly morning and evening. Liam Dutton on C4 news correctly said that a band of rain would pass through overnight ending with a heavy hail storm at 8am. A gusty wind here in London judging by the noise at the windows. In the C4 forecast, Jon Snow asked why we were having such weather and a jetstream caption appearred - didn't catch it all. Then Mr Dutton moved on to the next storm system coming through Wed/Thur coinciding with a glancing CME and a forecast R3.
On 04 Feb 2014, Ron Greer wrote:
There were 20 avalanches reported in the Highlands on Saturday--that's almost one an hour. There are massive snow cornices on the lee sides of the hills because of the high winds. Lots, indeed almost record levels of snow on the pistes, but not good ski-ing weather. So much for the end of snow prediction. I gather that the Antarctic ice minimum was the largest on record, even beating the 2008 level-- must be the heat!
On 04 Feb 2014, Rob wrote:
I see large parts of central Europe have been hard hit by blizzards and flooding.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26028321
On 04 Feb 2014, Russ 45 day subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Thinking about chemtrails and I think barium which is supposed to be one of the ingredients, this news item does seem to tie in with that. But shooting your own soldiers seems self defeating...I don't understand how this is supposed to work...long term! Although the vast majority of cancers will still hit more older people than younger ones...generally. So they still get maybe 30 years of work out of you hamsters before you croak! Will we become like our cars with a finite lifespan determined by the fat controllers? Makes you wonder.... WHO seem to think so... >>> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26014693 <<<
On 04 Feb 2014, Russ 45 day subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Weather-wise? Well yesterday it stayed cool, breezy, cloudy but dry all day in Derbyshire. Nice respite from the rain. Quite sunny today but the soggy land is going to take many weeks, even for the surface to dry out. Be ok once March gets underway and the sun rises higher. The ducks are loving it! I noticed flocks of Long Tailed Tits and Jays yesterday. and a lone Buzzard, so there are birds around. They just seem to have been hibernating for the past 8 weeks. There have been days when I've hardly seen any birdlife at all, even in the woods. Makes you wonder where they disappear to! The local farmers fields are just swamps, all with standing water! Yes Gill, waterlogged sloping fields too! They are all holding water. Maybe ploughing gravel into the soil could help with drainage, especially on clay soils?? Bad idea? Way too expensive? Just thinking of the future... They need to do something...
On 04 Feb 2014, Russ 45 day subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
That's why I say that voting, in general, is a waste of time and effort because there are hidden agenda's behind all this present day hokus pokus. The environmental movement are hell bent on world population reduction. Chemtrailing the western world into oblivion doesn't seem like a particularly good idea, because you end up killing everyone in your own team, leaving behind a few billion in India, China etc. Not logical. Any LIA will wipe out hundreds of millions of poor folk across the world, especially in Asia. So they don't need chemtrails. Watch this video about the mystery surrounding sun-spots. Then ask yourself, 'just how much flippin evidence do you need before you accept something is true'? (It 'was' made by the BBC!) >> http://youtu.be/BwWGZmD5Wr0 << I like the idea behind recycling. I do recycle most stuff. What I despise is the fact that we get no recompense from the council for spending around 130 hrs a year doing all that recycling work for them. £819 at £6.30 / hour...
On 04 Feb 2014, Russ 45 day subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Behind all this Global Warming and crazy EU directives is the environmentalists destruction of western industrialism. They have these paranoid delusions about saving the oil reserves for future generations and sustainable timber supply through leaving the forests alone, replanting as much as possible and using less timber (save the trees). Stopping intensive farming and leaving hedgerows and ditches to flourish with lots of pretty butterflies and Mr Toads. Well that just sounds like a fairy story more suitable for the 1800s than the 21st century. Oil should be used more slowly because we don't know how fast it's being produced. It could almost run out temporarily. Use less paper? Do you NEED to print this document? SAVE THE TREES! No! Use more paper and throw lot's of it away, that way more trees will be planted for paper production. That's sustainability in action. No oil to make plastics? USE HEMP! Dig up the millions of tons of plastic from landfill, you dig up the oil initially!!!
On 04 Feb 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (part-time sub. Neth.) wrote:
Current (3 AM) temps are +3 and -1 Celsius, actual and windchill respectively. Complete cloud cover without any visible stars, wind fairly strong and E.
On 03 Feb 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Finally the culprit of the Somerset flooding is revealed!! As always, lurking at the back of all this 'mismanagement' lies the EU. In a series of Directives about water management - or flooding as normal people call it - is the intention to allow more flooding. The Blair government's Environment Agency was happy to oblige and so one has to wonder why rubber-faced Lord Smith isn't on TV saying how successful their implementation has been. So when it finally comes to a vote to rid ourselves of the EU - and most certainly not in Cameron's fairy-tale renegotiation - I hope the people of Somerset will remember who was responsible for flooding their homes and ruining their livelihoods, and vote for the freedom to manage our own rivers as we please. The full trail of legislation is on Eureferendum.
On 03 Feb 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub)) wrote:
5˚C overnight, some stars visible early on, very strong S wind all day, just about gale force, altostratus with fast moving cumulus below, dry all day. At least that wind has a drying effect – before the next wet period, which is forecast here for Wednesday, MO yellow warning. 6˚ by 9pm, wind still strong.
|
AccuWeather Pics for 26th, 29th Jan. WeatherAction 4 week ahead foreacst well captured the basic development and timing of the snowmageddon and cold blast ~25-29 Jan as predicted, below, by WeatherAction USA 4 weeks ahead
