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On 27 Dec 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
After an evening of rain the wind got up in the early hours and roared in the trees. A lot of fence bits lying around from what is an admittedly weak fence. Calmer this morning, overcast with the wind from the north-west.
On 27 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Southern part of The Netherlands covered with +10cm snow! Train services have stopped, roads are dangerous ski slopes, public transport has come to a halt. However, not snowing as severe as models led to believe yesterday. Northern part (=us) got nothing, nada, zip. At 11:30 AM act. temps 1.4C with wind chill of nearly -6C due to 6BF due East wind. Partner is outside (brave man!) constructing a door frame for the hallway to ward off the cold in case this winter decides to pick up speed and turn colder.
On 27 Dec 2014, Matt (subscriber) wrote:
Had to abandon my car near Sheffield University before trudging up a steep hill to my house (Sheffield has so many damn hills!). I think an error with WA forecasts that is easily corrected is that, in my experience of 38 years in merry England, the coldest weather doesn't always produce snow. It wasn't all that cold last night compared to previous days but there was a foot and a half of snow. Snow seems to require specific circumstances to form.
On 26 Dec 2014, David (winter subscriber) Yorkshire wrote:
Decent snow event here in Yorkshire, 5 - 10 cm settled now as off 11pm. Looks really seasonal in the garden. shame it did not come yesterday. If it had not have rained first, it could have given some travel issues on the roads. I have posted several comments on here that have not been posted. Anyone else had issues?
On 26 Dec 2014, @piers_corbyn wrote:
TO SNOW OR NOT TO SNOW? Frustrating for people in South England! BRANDON! Br+Ir-WHOLE-WINTER-NOW which includes stratowarm forecasts with snow implications will help you. Now is time to subscribe. If you just want 30day buying now goes for JAN issue 31 Dec, Dec is inc now free.
On 26 Dec 2014, Brandon wrote:
The disappointment for southern England snow lovers CONTINUE!! I wonder when we will bear a good brunt for a change seems like models for tonight are decreasing coming any further south seems like the HAMPSHIRE area will only get rain with probably a sleet shower to finish off tonight nothing to durastic currently waiting patiently for the right time to subscribe!
On 26 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Merry Christmas/Yuletide everyone ;-) Current temps here 0,6C with a windchill of -2,6C, temps in 10km radius var. from -3C to -1C; dew point from -1.1C to -3.5C; wind var. SW to SE. Hardly any wind and NO SNOW! *grrrr* Main snow area predicted to be approx. beneath the line Alkmaar (Noord-Holland province) and Assen (Drenthe province). Hopefully the WeatherGods will laugh at this and inundate us with snow as well ... @Henk - Winter 1978/1979 topped off my feeling of revulsion of being back in The Netherlands ;-) Early 1978 was already horrible compared with +30C temps in Surinam, what followed was even worse. However, these days I wouldn't want to miss the changing seasons anymore, which in Surinam were mainly dictated by the amount of rain or lack thereof.
On 25 Dec 2014, brandon wrote:
I wonder how far south the snow risk will update will it be rain under the Midlands Iv got my fingers crossed we get snow instead of rain!!
On 25 Dec 2014, danny wrote:
I would like to wish thee MAINMAN and every body involved in
making Weather Action the greatest weather website in the world, a very MERRY CHRISTMAS and a HAPPY NEW YEAR.
TO YOU ALL...
Best wishes from Danny and his pot filling Lurcher dogs.
On 24 Dec 2014, Henk wrote:
Hi everyone, As mentioned earlier we see a spectaculair change in weather pattern to begin during xmas till mid/end january. Lots of snow and frost is on the way. In line with the forecasts for a LIA and slowing gulf stream / solar flares. Pierce and other respected scientist have warned for the future implications.The future is now. Merry xmas from The Netherlands. Saskia, I remember the winter of 1978/1979 very well -))
On 24 Dec 2014, Ros wrote:
I have been a faithful subscriber for a number of years but it feels as if WeatherAction is less about the weather and more about the subs lately. I subscribe to another forecaster who is not a maverick and follows the models; however he posts a video every day and explains his thoughts - £3 a month. I find WeatherActions blog cumbersome and time consuming - once you have paid your pounds, received your forecast you are on your own for the month. We really need somewhere for subscribers to chat. A great Piers supporter, however feeling a little disillusioned at the moment.
On 23 Dec 2014, Matt (subscriber) wrote:
The pressure forecast is looking accurate right now but it is not translating into the weather predicted, at least certain aspects of it.
Whatever the case, you can't deny the solar/lunar connection is real.
On 23 Dec 2014, Gazza wrote:
Piers, what about a more standard forum layout with a password protected area for paid subscribers?
Quite straight forward to set up
On 22 Dec 2014, @piers_corbyn wrote:
GREETINGS ALL! I NOTICE having 2 blogs active at same time not working COMMS please. == ASSESSMENTS REPORTAGE PLEASE note my comm on home page re forecast errors and that we are now back on track. Anyone wanting to comm on forecasts please note what has already been said there and in user COMMS rather than write as if errors (mainly in south) had not already been reported and discussed. Note much of public maybe do not know our DEC forecast never was cold all through. == XMAS IS HERE PLEASE SEE HOME PAGE FOR AMAZING TIME LIMITED OFFER AND WE SUGGEST GET NOW NOT LEAVE TO XMAS DAY. SITE crashed yesterday and who knows what greens have in mind for Xmas 'presents' so get now and avoid possible probs later. Thanks
On 22 Dec 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:
Obs from East Berks. 13 degs, strong SW wind, overcast but not raining. Overnight low of 9 degs. All heating off again.
On 22 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Day 2 of stormy weather (+8BF) which drives all the kids, cats & dogs crazy, which means me! Something is coming, and if you ignore the Dutch language and just look at the charts included in this topic http://www.meteo-service.nl/index.php/topic,5403.800.html you'll see what I mean. Conclusively: chance of extreme low pressure area Christmas Day 2 / this weekend, with severe storm accompanied by snow. Looks like the 1978/1979 scenario really does stand a chance of repeating itself!
On 21 Dec 2014, Paddy Aberdeen South 160m elevation wrote:
6ºC at 7.30, stiff S’ly wind, cloudy at first and feeling really mild all day, good sunshine in between cloudy spells, max temp a staggering (for us) 9º, down to 7º by 9pm, wind gone. What with all the heating, the house feels almost too warm again, so the cosiness value of the open fire is not what it was during the cold spells :-)
On 20 Dec 2014, Ann (Wicklow) wrote:
(Dec sub) feels cold here this evening. Wondering what is ahead of us for the rest of winter. Models seemto be very confused! Anyone like to share Jan or SSW Forecast with me? Sadly can't afford it.
On 20 Dec 2014, Paddy Aberdeen South 160m elevation wrote:
Windy all through the night, W’ly at first, blustery NW’ly this morning, 4ºC at 7.30, showers off & on throughout the morning, brighter afternoon, wind more W’ly again and moderating, ground thawed again, cloudy evening, no stars, 3º by 9pm. I’m not bothered one way or the other about snow, but I’ll be happy if we get some more and longer lasting frost, always good for cleaning the ground of various pests. == Not yet, Gill, not yet (snow, that is), but I’ve ordered a tanker of mulled wine just in case y’all turn up:-)
On 20 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
7 deg. @ 18.49 pm mostly cloudy couple of light drizzly showers today, boring weather atm, so only one thing for it is to break into the Xmas beers!-)
On 20 Dec 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:
Obs from East Berks. Dry & sunny. Overnight low of 4.5 degs and daytime high of 9 degs but with a brisk westerly breeze. Started off as a north westerly but is now more south westerly.
On 20 Dec 2014, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
Correct forecast or incorrect forecast; 12c in December especially around Christmas is unwelcome. Too mild for a fire or woodburner, which is just what you want at this time of year to make you feel seasonal. If you light it up -it ain't the chestnuts that end up getting roasted. Unfortunately mild wet and windy is usually par for the course for us southerners in this little SE corner at this time of year despite all the hype and wishing and skyward gazing. Feel like saying - 'It don't snow down here at Christmas - so get over it- or better still get yourself up to Paddy's for Christmas - where it probably does snow. I m sure he'd love to see you all for a great big happy white Christmas LOL!
On 20 Dec 2014, Lorraine Lster (sub) NZ wrote:
Wet across the whole of NZ today, started at the beginning of the R4 yesterday. Warm and very humid, sticky weather. More rain forecast for tonight and tomorrow.
On 20 Dec 2014, Rohan wrote:
There have been 2 high level M flares this week plus one X1 class flare this morning around 01:00 pm this morning. One confirmed earthbound Cme with another possibly on the way from the 2nd M6 flare, unsure whether there is any Cme with the X class flare. All this solar activity coinciding with the wane of the old moon may mean that the MetO is going to hsve a really rough time off it in the next 10 days or so......
On 20 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Has been a bit milder some light rain on occasion & a little sun, 6 deg. Now @ 1.24 a.m feels colder with the light wind, starry sky and feels like a change around the corner again! now I remember why I don't usually model watch as the models seem to be all over the place and confused! Interesting weather times ahead though...
On 19 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
The MetO wording is subtly changing allowing lots of room for manoeuvre should anything substantial either way show itself in the coming days === "A band of cloud and rain is likely to be affecting many central parts of the UK at first on Christmas Eve, clearing the southeast later. Colder conditions then spreading to many areas, continuing into Christmas day, with some wintry showers across N areas. Probably becoming increasingly unsettled into the weekend, with the risk of persistent heavy rain, gales and also +++a risk of significant snow, this more likely across some northern parts+++. Conditions after Christmas likely to remain predominantly cold across the N, but with +++the chance of milder interludes across the far south++!. Otherwise the following week looks perhaps rather cold on the whole, with snow showers likely across many northern areas but milder, wetter interludes possible at times. Generally windy for many throughout." That's until 2nd Jan.
On 19 Dec 2014, Paddy Aberdeen South 160m elevation wrote:
As thick as two short planks - only just discovered that I'm meant to put my comment on this blog & not the USA one :-(, so here goes again: Change again: although 2ºC on the thermometer at 7.30, the ground was frozen and stayed that way all day, very sunny most of the time, though I didn’t pay sufficient attention to see whether the sun was brighter than usual.. In any case, all the sun this month is a real blessing after the darkness of November. Max temp 3º, surprisingly still there at 9.30pm, apparently thawing, and precipitation showing on the MO radar pic, must be warm air flowing over the top of the Atlantic High.
On 19 Dec 2014, danny wrote:
As i stated, PIERS, His only gone and done it again
RE Russ,es comment. Now i am going to do a snow dance LOL,
because the red wings have shown..
On 18 Dec 2014, Jan wrote:
Hi everyone, is the 45d Jan late loading?
On 18 Dec 2014, Fred wrote:
With new moon and perigee approaching another interesting SLAT period approaches. I'm intrigued by the delay in Piers Jan 45 day forecast, are there some tweaks going on with SLAT 11?
On 18 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Windy (W) wet 11 deg. High humidity @ 8 a.m other sites here talking of possible high alert for wintry conditions after Xmas.
On 18 Dec 2014, Brandon wrote:
I would like to discuss the 27th with the southern part of england with the cold taking place that is apparently coming, no sign of a dip just yet, but for southern England round about the 27th looks like an increasing chance of something pretty amazing!! If the models for the 27th stay like that and doesn't change well you know.........
On 17 Dec 2014, se Eire wrote:
Most people are fascinated with snow to a certain degree as it brings us back to childhood and changes the whole landscape etc. But I think it very brave of those who attempt to predict snow. I remember one time when a met forecaster said that it is notoriously difficult to forecast snow. For the last few years I've seen a few different forecasters get it completely wrong. I am therefore quite sceptical when I see the word SNOW mentioned in ANY forecast. Piers I am sure saw all the ingredients before many others. But unless they are all ready in the right place on the day the recipe will not succeed. As has been mentioned elsewhere in this blog it would be useful for everyone if WA were to show a European aspect more often to show where the wind, cold etc is coming from and has gone.
On 17 Dec 2014, GerryB (sub) Essex wrote:
Squirrels causing all this warming!!!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30456869
On 17 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Saskia I hope you're right I've waited patiently 36 nearly 37 years for a repeat of the Feb weather that was around when I was born! Every year I say surely soon lol!-) Agree with Paddy also I too would not be without WA forecasts by choice and have found them more helpful than not this year, great comment by Russ on the home page too and if that makes me a Weather Action groupie.. Well I could think of worst things to be!
On 17 Dec 2014, Rohan wrote:
04:51 Active sunspot AR2242 erupted on Dec. 17th, producing an M9-class solar flare.
Radio emissions from shock waves billowing away from the blast site suggest that a CME is emerging and possibly heading toward Earth. This possibility has not yet been confirmed,
A few more of those may cause some interesting developments in the forecasts in the days to come, together with the dip south that's predicted for the Jetstream between the 25/26/27th of this month.
On 17 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
@Maria (Eire) - Good observation on the European model! Weather sites here increasingly point towards a little/a lot of snow around Christmas. I keep saying: watch for similarities between 1978/1979 and now! Back then temps were swinging wildly as well due to colliding low and high pressure systems.
On 17 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Not a model watcher usually but the European model looks interesting around Xmas/Boxing Day...
On 17 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
A rainy day yesterday with temps slowly climbing during the day, the wind increased and got quite blustery during the evening, temp 11 this a.m and breezy still in a WSW wind...
On 17 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Currently (8AM) 5C with -1C windchill, rain, SSE wind, bar.press. 999hPa-
On 17 Dec 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
The R3 has had a sting in its tail for NZ with wild weather in the north of the North Island today http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/64228490/weather-to-calm-in-north-after-wild-day. Some more welcome rain down here, just steady with little wind. The vegetable garden is way behind for mid-December this year with only the greenhouse plantings as they normally would be. However, all fruit - pip, stone and berry is right on schedule so the effects of the cold November have really been felt in the vegetables.
On 16 Dec 2014, Paddy Aberdeen South 160m elevation wrote:
Forgot to say that by 9.30pm temperature had risen to 1ºC and it started to rain from that warm front associated with the Low near Iceland – maybe snow/slush by tomorrow morning?
On 16 Dec 2014, Paddy Aberdeen South 160m elevation wrote:
0º at 7.30, cracking cold day with bright sunshine during the morning, clouding up in the afternoon, mostly WNW winds, ground remained frozen all day. We’ve already had way more frost this winter than last which should kill off the carrot fly larvae with which we have been plagued this year due to the previous mild winter. == Regarding forecasts, since participating in this blog I have observed on a number of occasions that people, including myself, do not read them carefully enough and Piers has to clarify. From my small location I could also say that the December f’cast has been inaccurate and overblown but I’m not inclined to say so as the cold did come when Piers said it would, and some snow for some. I’ve also learned from past experience how to avoid embarrassment by not making any dire predictions to friends only to see them not come quite true. For our own business the WA forecasts are certainly helpful and I wouldn't want to be without them now.
On 16 Dec 2014, @Piers_Corbyn wrote:
THANKS ALL FOR COMMS == SUPERB informative analysis Craig! The point about BI-Eu pressure pattern shifts well made. 45d subs also get "POSSIBLE Pressure scenario" maps from which possible alternatives - like Germany 'nicking' BI snow from South UK - can be apparent == Following the Sudden Stratospheric warmings (SSW) (trial) forecast and related Jet Stream changes + snow events will be instructive. 45d-ers + 30d-ers NOTE the cost of upgrade to BI-WHOLE-WINTER-NOW which includes SSW can be minimal (only £4 if you are already subbed to Feb in 45d service) == PHOTOS!! Thanks for snow pics sent in. See nice one from Lawrence Thurgood on home page showing snow wilderness Durham on 13th. == ALL re 12-16th the 'Feet-Of-Snow' possibility was For N/NE NOT for S+SE and note disruption of airports was both about more widespread expected snow and knock-on effects (eg flights from Luton to Leeds disrupt if Leeds airport cancels some landings whatever weather in Luton).
On 16 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Btw the current warm air inflow was expected- but not over us // Some good discussion by the way especially suggested future forecast amendments. Combined BI+Eu would help misunderstandings & why some of us say a forecast is broadly correct even though it may not seem that way to BI subs-we can see (rather than infer) outside the box of the BI forecast. USA is also v. important-that sets up our weather here. In a sense fcasts are like 500hpa anomaly charts. Cost implications? //
I would highly recommend Matt 'Maverick man''s assessment of the forecasts (link Matt?) - for what they can & cannot do. As he highlights sometimes the accuracy is astonishing, others the detail may be wrong but the broad strokes were right. // Japan+Korea getting heavy snow. (See iceagenow.info) Something niggling me about that from recent years (was it 09/10/11?) // Some comms may be slow if referred to Piers as he's preparing the Jan 45D so is occupied as such. He will get to you.
On 16 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Personally I think solar flux remained too high early on giving a more zonal circulation albeit with winds from NW rather than the predominance of S/SW from last year (had the low sunk it would have changed the flow from NW-N-NE/E). Also the higher flux chimes with the appearance of the polar low-something expected in low NHem snow years. Can't find the quote but it was unusual for such a high snow index year. From Judah Cohen 2nd Dec "A deep polar low has taken residence across northwestern Asia and Barents–Kara seas (B-K) region that has not allowed the Siberian high to expand northward that is optimal for wave driving necessary to break down the stratospheric polar vortex. Somewhat ironically sea ice in the region has been running at or above normal this fall, which is very different from what we have observed over the recent past where the largest winter sea ice deficits have been in in the B-K region." === http://ow.ly/FZ7Vc
On 16 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
...cont...*You can look at earth.nullschool.net click 'earth' then MSP & then this (《》) which is next to 'current'. Use them or change the date via the address bar. To see the cold/warm air battle select 850+temp. I think Piers has said SLAT11 over amplified the magnitude meaning the warm air (which supplies the precipitation for snow) was not held back by the high over NW Russia which would have moved over Scan had the low dropped. "We can partly understand this shift of our forecast weather patterns East or NorthEast into Europe as an over-application of our SLAT11 which ***pulled initial patterns more South / SW." *** Sounds lunar in origin (for new subs the lunar effect can work with or against solar effects. It is minor to solar effects, hence it modulates I suppose like when you put a finger just touching water in a running tap i.e. it modulates the flow.
On 16 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
'Too cold to snow' & to a degree it can be - the polar caps are deserts+many times cold comes in but we get no snow as we are in cold dry polar/Siberian airflow. Some of the biggest snowfall events have come when the Atlantic sends in a low, they are not always a 'big freeze' but a battleground. Cold air is stubborn & usually modelled to be flattened (it's still here) but it is dense & warm Atlantic fronts can go over the cold air=snow. Clearly Piers saw this possibility (feet of snow possible), however as the low did not sink Sth over us* (North Sea) instead going over Scandinavia/Baltics)=no block/deep cold. I was surprised that Piers held fast so long, however the model spreads (which can & do swing at short notice) did show the possibility. As often in B+I & the Sth we missed out :( ...cont...
On 16 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Justin I live in the Sth too & I would not say generally mild. It's subjective tho'. Mostly I'd say it's been 'chilly' (certainly not f..f..freezing). 'Chilly' is how the MetO forecasts daily characterised much of the period. It has not been record cold by any means. CET which is the heart of England measurement really went from a high peak & dropped to average where it stayed. The weather has been quite up & down as mild sectors have passed quickly over averaging out. Sun was an example with an 11C swing which started late morning as Tropical air moved in. Today started cold with frost (early fog last night which cleared just after midnight) & tomorrow looks unseasonably mild but it won't last. It has overall felt quite seasonal & reminds me of winters of the 80s rather than the 90s until ~2007.
On 16 Dec 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Been out in the garden and what do I see but fieldfares and redwing birds devouring the cotoneaster berries with some blackbirds to, not a lot of berries left now cleared the lot, first time they have been here this December, is it a sign of weather to come we will see.
On 16 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
1962/3 - not the Russians and their bombs - lots of bomb testing followed that period so why no more brutal winters? I also don't buy the war causing the really cold winters of the 1940s which I've also seen put forward - did the Napoleonic war cause the Siberia Beast to arise in that ill fated attack by Boney on the Russians? Did Dec 2010 come from nukes? 62/63 happened during the declining phase of solar cycle 19 which peaked in Mar 1958 and "there are indications of a maintained drop in the number of [sunspot] groups during the last quarter [of '62]" ===
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/1963QJRAS...4..300L === obviously more to it than that but I'd say that's a better area to look at.
On 16 Dec 2014, steve_m wrote:
Hi all
As a follower of Piers I can appreciate the general levels of success of weather action, offering a service which is an eyeopener for many of us, especially when it pans out exactly as expected. I agree that this month's forecast was over the top re: snow cover but it wasn't as far away as some are suggesting. Keep up the good work Piers!
On 16 Dec 2014, Gazza wrote:
Food for thought:
Seems the Arctic ice pack melt has stalled somewhat and .......
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30399079
On 16 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Currently (12 AM) cloudy skies after intense hail deluge, actual temps of 5C with windchill around freezing. Bar.press. steady at 1007 hPa. Here's a few clips from that infamous winter of 1963, showing what we Frisians are famous for: the Elfstedentocht (Eleven Cities Skating Tour). The Dutch have a saying: when it starts freezing, the Frisians start defrosting (Als het gaat vriezen ontdooien de Friezen ;-) However, even for us 1963 was pretty bad, that year's tour being dubbed The Hell of 1963.
http://bit.ly/131mYw6
http://bit.ly/1yXxBOx
http://bit.ly/1svLADL
And here's some footage of the winter 1978/1979. My first winter after moving back to The Netherlands from Surinam, South-America.
http://bit.ly/1syJett
BTW, that was close to what it looked like here in 2010 as well. Here's footage from the village of Ee (near us) and some other compilations.
http://bit.ly/1wVdccH
http://bit.ly/1BSAu4e
http://bit.ly/1IWCVVh
And here's 2012. Again, Fryslân ;-)
http://bit.ly/1IWDJJV
On 16 Dec 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Richard East mid,s wrote that he thought winter 1963 was due to Russians and testing atom bombs, you never know it could equally have been a good year for termites and all that farting from herds of wildebeests in Africa. Lol
I must stop all this posting for a while as I am enjoying it to much,to much time indoors and not enough in the garden.
On 16 Dec 2014, Alistair wrote:
Nigella, the forecast for this part of Yorkshire is also for milder weather leading up to the weekend, then cold for a day or two and then back to Milder conditions again for Sunday.
This of course could change but it will be very interesting to see what happens a day or two before Christmas, some appear to be saying that it could become very cold right on Christmas .
On 16 Dec 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:
Obs from East Berks. Light frost in the early hours of this morning with an overnight low of zero. Lifted quickly to give a beautiful, sunny day. Temps currently 5 degrees. Short term forecasts suggesting some warm air coming in from the Atlantic on this low pressure for a day or two and then colder again.
On 16 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
i thought winter 63 was because of the soviets testing A bombs just before?
On 16 Dec 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
David Yorkshire, don,t belive you have a clue as to what occurred in 1963 it was so frosty and snow so intense with a frost that did not ease all day so salt and grit will not work on roads so Dream on about the heat effect in towns and cities it may help a bit but not much, as for the traffic it will be absalute chaos If it ever did happen here. But I do agree about the madden bloke on the express.
On 16 Dec 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
You have to pay for the strat thing.
January B+I 45d forecast is imminent but it does NOT include the Stratosphere+Snow forecast which also involves Feb.
I think I will Pass on that will Wait and see how it goes now.
On 16 Dec 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
I haven't seen this new strat warming cast either and I am a lowly 45day chap. By the way I can't highlight and copy on the site when it comes to a link so have to copy freehand which is a bind, may be the iPad so will try on me laptop.
I do recall in the 1950s my mother told me that the hedge outside the house which was about 5ft high the snow was level with it and that was in March so plenty of time for the White stuff. One of my brothers had a brain wave and made some snow shoes with plywood and rope and walked through the wood the local farm labourer couldn't make out what the marks in the snow were much to everyone in the house laughing, we did tell him after a while, all departed now, memories hey.
On 16 Dec 2014, Rhys Jaggar (annual 30D sub) wrote:
Piers
Re your comments 14 Dec about 3 Jan 1987: I was living in Glasgow at the time and the snow event that first week in January 1987 was EXTREMELY NOTEWORTHY. We had blizzards in the city for a whole week, a quick freeze-thaw cycle saw all the roads frozen with hard compacted snow and the council ran out of grit.
I and a colleague went to the Highlands at the weekend winter walking and the river by our tent had to be hacked open in the morning using ice axes. Snow cover was complete, 15 - 20cm in the valley and metres up in the leeward corries.
It may not have been a big event down south, but in Scotland, early January 1987 was up there with the best of them in terms of snow events.
On 15 Dec 2014, Tony Slynes wrote:
Hang on a minute a few commenters on here! As much as I like Piers and think that he proves the Met wrong on many times, I don't recall any other forecaster saying it would be the snowiest for 100 years over a five day period in December. Some others are easy to divert the blame to others on here. Piers yes he got that wrong, but he will come good again.
On 15 Dec 2014, Mark Fuller wrote:
Sorry, I meant climate heretic , not sceptic.
On 15 Dec 2014, Mark Fuller wrote:
I'm a rare climate sceptic in the Socialist Republic of Liverpool. I've been looking at this sight for a couple of years now, and think that on the whole Piers does a very good job of providing useful forecasts and combating the relentless dishonesty of the left, Greens and big business. But like many others, I was very disappointed that the extreme wintry conditions did not materialize. Liverpool has a mild maritime climate, but it didn't even manage to sleet in what was supposed to be a dramatic period of weather. Occasionally, I feel Piers' confidence goes a little over the top, and risks alienating even ardent supporters when forecasts go awry.
On 15 Dec 2014, Paddy Aberdeen South 160m elevation wrote:
1ºC at 7.30 according to the thermometer which sits at 5’ off the ground which itself was well frozen again and stayed that way all day. Light breeze from various directions between W & S as I could observe from my bonfire smoke. Very sunny again and temps got to 3º but was 0º by 10pm under another beautiful starry sky
On 15 Dec 2014, Justin (occasional sub) wrote:
Hi All, I agree with others here that some of the over-hyping language used on this site works against them when it doesn't pan out as forecast. I remember last December with the "Snowmageddon" headlines...didn't happen!! So, at present, I am hesitant to take any notice of or purchase said forecast when I see a forecast described in a way that would make The Sun proud. No offence Piers, just cold honest feedback! I live in the south too and it has been wet, windy and mild here...in general!
On 15 Dec 2014, David (winter subscriber) Yorkshire wrote:
Piers I stand my comments about forecast but respect your work and obviously believe in your theories otherwise I wouldn't buy the forecasts. I do think my previous comment and that of a few others opened a good can of worms. Please do not associate yourself with Madden he is obsessed with snow and doesn't seem to forecast anything else in winter.
I do not think we will ever get a scenario like 1947 or 1963 again due to much larger urban areas and transport networks these days. Our towns and cities are much warmer than back then (not the climate in general) and we use road salt for example to clear roads and pavements, so it will never seem like a complete whiteout again!
On 15 Dec 2014, Alistair wrote:
I can remember the winter 0f 63 or at least some of it.
I remember been at school in Hull when it started just after the holidays
We were all sitting in morning class when it suddenly became really dark outside, then it started to snow really heavily and by the time we were allowed out of school to go home for our dinners it was already several inches deep.
The thing is as I remember, we didn't get any warning of such an event the day before, it just came quite unexpectedly and went on for some considerable time.
Although our parents hated it we loved it as kids because we were out in it every night after school and at weekends, making snowmen, having snowball fights and making long icy slides on which we would take long run ups before sliding as far as we could, sometimes doing fancy twists and turns as we did so.
I cant remember exactly how long it lasted but it was certainly a while, its also the winter that most my friends of similar age remember most when talking of winters
On 15 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
21.10 pm last night 6 deg some cloud around and noticed wind had changed to WSW. This morning 5 deg. start, some light showers tiny show of sunshine on occasion but mostly cloudy today, 5 deg. now at 19.20 pm with a very light N breeze, feels like its going to be a bit colder than last night.
On 15 Dec 2014, Ian Ridpath wrote:
Give the BBC some credit, or at east Jonathan Amos. They are running this story and it is on the front of their Weather page:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30399079
Certainly makes this guy look like a plonker:
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/sep/17/arctic-collapse-sea-ice.
That one will in years to come stand alongside the famous “snow-free winters” prediction:
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
On 15 Dec 2014, Andy B 45D Farmer sub SE Wales wrote:
I remember 63, I was about 12 years old and the road at the top of our drive was full of drifted snow, you could walk over the tops of the hedges. My dad used to take us to school on the tractor. I am disappointed for Piers for the snow forecast I like to see him get it right. although we were not expecting much here, it has certainly made it easier to manage the cattle.
On 15 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote:
Worth a gander too
http://theroyalwindsorforum.yuku.com/topic/718/The-Great-Freeze-of-39-63-and-other-bad-weather-years#.VI8blHvoqGl
On 15 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote:
I see us lowly 30 day subscribers dont get the new SSW forecast, thats fine but please update us if the forecast is going to be different for the rest of the month
Regards Steve
On 15 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote:
Steve d, thanks mate sounds like you had a great time in the snow! keep it coming! here's a good read about winter '63.
http://www.thamesweb.co.uk/windsor/windsorhistory/freeze63.html
On 15 Dec 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
One thing that stays with me also was the bright clear sky these seem to go on for what seemed like weeks, when the sun was going down the ice covered snow reflected the glow of the setting sun and I have never seen anything like it since,this explains why it was so cold and frosty, another thing I recall is when it got windy the roads were re covered with new driven snow and had to be cleared again, some of the side country roads you were driving on 9" of snow at least but much safer than ice, I recall standing and watching the snow make whirlwind patterns on the edges of snowdrifts I think they call them cornices or something.
On 15 Dec 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Here is more for you stephen ........Another thing I well remember was the frost it was bitter and hard as iron it froze every thing, the water tower that served the RAF which was 60 ft tall had ice down to the ground like a frozen waterfall that was the overflow outlet great to see, the ground was frozen to prob 18 inches and rang if you hit it with a spade. The local river stour was frozen over you could walk from side to side, the ice was prob a foot thick even then I stuck to the side, got a school mate to walk across, self preservation was strong in me even then lol..
On 15 Dec 2014, GerryB(winter sub) wrote:
I can go back to 1947, first year @ Grammar School. Travelled by bus, then train then walked a mile uphill to school. Missed just one day not due to transport which always ran - steam in those days; was just too cold one day so went back home to a coal fire.
1962/3 the worst was the smog of December 62, drove a 307e van then having brought my wife's wordly goods in it after our marriage in Italy May 62.
I fitted chains, driving to work through most of Jan/Feb with them fitted- a tad noisy on the roads on eastern outskirts of London where we lived. Survived without dent on vehicle passing daily ditched vehicles.
Hardly a pleasant intro to the UK for my wife, yes still wed.
On 15 Dec 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
We were lucky enough to live near a RAF airfield and they had snow blowers which they were good enough to clear the local roads to the town, I remember sitting on the bus and the snow banks were halfway up the windows and more in places very exciting never forget it. O and don,t forget we are at the warmist end of England the riviera, what the rest were like I shudder to think, not good at the time.
On 15 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Bummer that I don't have access to the new snow warnings, would've been interesting to see where exactly the border between Scandinavia and 'lower' Europe would be in order to compare it with the 1978/1979 situation. - OT: Currently (17:00 hrs) 5C with windchill of 1,3C, wind WSW, bar.pres. 1009hPa+.
On 15 Dec 2014, GerryB(winter sub) wrote:
I can go back to 1947, first year @ Grammar School. Travelled by bus, then train then walked a mile uphill to school. Missed just one day not due to transport which always ran - steam in those days; was just too cold one day so went back home to a coal fire.
1962/3 the worst was the smog of December 62, drove a 307e van then having brought my wife's wordly goods in it after our marriage in Italy May 62.
I fitted chains, driving to work through most of Jan/Feb with them fitted- a tad noisy on the roads on eastern outskirts of London where we lived. Survived without dent on vehicle passing daily ditched vehicles.
Hardly a pleasant intro to the UK for my wife, yes still wed.
On 15 Dec 2014, Sue H (N.Ireland) dec sub wrote:
I was thinking back to the really big snow events that I remember through my life and the only one as a child was when I lived in Berkshire and there was heavy snow/freezing weather for a good week I remember. 1981 or 2, although your memory does play tricks on you! the best sledging was in the bomb craters on Hungerford Common. Steep slopes, but enclosed and safe, no running into trees etc. The canal froze enough to walk on. Some of the villagers got supplies using sledges etc. I am too young to remember the 63 or 47 snows. But I do recall grandparents saying the snowdrifts were just a foot short of the top of the patio doors (not sure which year). Fingers still crossed for this year. BTW, anyone know if the cold ocean/lack of gulf stream is going to cause potential problems?
On 15 Dec 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
USA Dec 12-16 period has developed very well in accordance with Piers' forecast. 2" hail in Oklahoma and low pressure per forecast, thundery showers in California on cue, high pressure over southeast perfectly located, high pressure over Dakotas as forecasted with arctic cold spilling into western regions as forecasted. Low pressure over Lake Superior fixing to position itself by tomorrow into forecasted location. Very slow moving weather. Fog in MN, IA, MI, IL for several days as solar flux has ramped up again, yesterday at 166 sfu tracking SSN, up to 175, driving major warm moist flows off Pacific and Atlantic, setting up big precipitation events, some current, some soon. Solar wind picked up today, doubled in strength, on time for R3 today & tomorrow. Massive NE snow and disruption still pending as cold air moving slow. While solar activity is moderately high right now, we are poised for the dropoff into the minimum next year, when talk of "record" warmth will be stopped cold.
On 15 Dec 2014, stephen parker wrote:
Re steve,dorset. I was only three so alas i dont remember it, can you imagine it today with all the extra cars on the road, and hardly anyone working local, and how long will the schools be closed due to elf and saftey? lol!Traffic grinds to a halt round here at the slightest provocation!.
What will be interesting is that snow ploughs wont be able to clear the roads with those lovely calming features.
if you get a minute can you tell us any more about what you remember?
Regards steve
On 15 Dec 2014, Nick, Berks. wrote:
Russ, the only point on which I would disagree with Steve James is him saying that the '80% confidence was wrong'. I'm sure that was Piers' confidence at the time the forecast was made, it's not changed by subsequent events which, however, proved the forecast to be wrong in the eyes not just of Steve but several subscribers, not all based in the SE. Put this also in the context of Craig's Wordpress blog having publicly quoted Piers as saying "Major disruption at airports and on the country’s transport systems is inevitable" and “The beginning of December could bring close to record low temperatures .." At least down here the start of December primarily felt cold by comparison to the very warm end November, actual temperatures were unremarkable and were and remain a long way from record cold so it wasn't just lack of snow. Quite right to note Piers' successes but no need to pretend there are no failures. [contd.]
On 15 Dec 2014, Brandon wrote:
Piers are you saying SSW Is now imminent?! This is more serious than I thought especially this early the Germans took our snow and that was the calm before the storm, I wonder what christmas and the new year will be like let alone january february and March!
On 15 Dec 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:
Hi Russ, I think this maybe where the north/south divide comes in. Down here in East Berkshire, we have only had 3 nights where the temp dropped below zero degs. There has been some lovely sunshine, some rain and one night was windy with a few squalls on another night. We've had temps as high as 12 degs & most days temps have been close to or above average for the time of year. There has been no snow, no travel disruption (at least due to the weather) and no prolonged or extreme cold.
On 15 Dec 2014, David wrote:
I was really disappointed with the December forecast. I cant understand how a forecast can be issued at the end of a month with an 80% confidence for 5-8 days ahead and be so wrong. It as if the forecast was issued in isolation with no recognition of the existing atmospheric conditions. If the argument is now that there is greater accuracy with the long range forecast then why would I purchase a short term forecast?
On 15 Dec 2014, Russ in/at/of/around Derbyshire wrote:
Steve James.. re:"However you look at the past week or so the 80% confidence was wrong, despite snow and ice in the North (which is normal)"...The MO said,"warm & wet conditions throughout December". Piers told us that at the start of December, the temperature would drop sharply. So went from warm & dry conditions to cold, icy, gales, freezing rain and snow on upland areas. If it were warm, sunny and calm, then Piers would be wrong. He said it would turn colder..it did. He said gales..there were gales. He said blizzards..some people got blizzards. He said wind & rain further south..there was. He said ice...there was ice. The only thing he got wrong was the big snow fall which passed over us and dropped on central Germany. He even got the thunder-snow; snow and lightning were reported from Orkney, evening of the 11th. So 80% confidence was more than accurate. Just because all UK subscribers didn't get all the forecast details happen in their local area does not make the man wrong!
On 15 Dec 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
The thought of a very cold winter has no secrets for me, as a young boy I can remember the winter of 1963 and that was the coldest winter for 100 years with drifting snow and severe frost from Boxing Day through to late March,I can still remember walking on the frozen snow without going through it was that frozen.can anyone remember there time in that year it was a interesting time.
On 15 Dec 2014, Matt (subscriber) aka "TheMaverickMan" wrote:
Piers, I would like to suggest that you invite subscribers to suggest changes to the presentation of your forecasts. A bit of customer feedback is always helpful. IMO your forecasts should start with the general pressure scenario and then present a range of possible weather scenarios depending on how accurately the weather pans out. That way the room for error is greater without compromising the efficacy of your forecasts, and it will assuage those who pick you apart at every turn. Your pressure scenario for the last few days wasn't far wrong.
On 15 Dec 2014, Nick, West Wales, 4 year subscriber wrote:
For those looking for a further argument against the "CO2 drives climate" theory:
http://iceagenow.info/2014/12/video-30-top-scientists-predict-global-cooling-2015-2050/
On 15 Dec 2014, Andy wrote:
Yes the models, BBC, MO etc seem to be calling it right so far. I know they are short range forecasts but they have generally consistently indicated wet/ mild which seems to be what we have had in the South. There is a long way to go this winter so it is too early to draw any conclusions but all of the hype regarding the severity of this winter has so far been wrong. Maybe it is right that the models have warmist weighted data?
On 15 Dec 2014, C View wrote:
@Sue Dublin. Don't know how you can say August was a washout. The first few days of the month had heavy showers I remember but the mojority of the month was very good being mostly dry warm to very warm, I know this as I used the weather to my advantage to build a patio. I do agree however that we did not get the predicted heatwave.
On 15 Dec 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:
Obs from East Berks. Rain overnight but beautiful sunny day here now. Current temp of 7.5 degs & very little breeze. I have no weather related qualifications, other than a lifelong interest. I think that forecasting the weather in the UK is incredibly difficult & that is why, despite the huge financial backing the MetO have, I am always loathe to start name calling them - or anyone else. I liken forecasting the weather to predicting the future - no one has ever managed to be 100% successful with either! I support WA, because I am anti-warmist & because there is clearly something in what WA does. I don't always understand the forecasts but I did take the predicted disruption of LHR & LGW to mean that we would likely get snow. Seems to me there are full stops in the wrong places in the text beside the UK map for the 12th-16th time period, which make it unclear exactly where the feet of snow were predicted for.
On 15 Dec 2014, JohnE wrote:
Some fascinating postings on here and now that the weather does not concern me at all in relation to the business that I ran because of retirement then I can sort of sit on the side lines and just watch.
Last winter I purchased everything that I could covering December right through to the end of March because I was involved in a plant closure with required some dangerous heavy lifting and in that instance the forecast from WA was excellent however from other sources it was very non specific and the reported snow events did not occur. My opinion on this last weeks debacle is that the words used should have been moderated because if I had been doing last week what I was doing in January 2013 then I would have cancelled the cranes and transporters at huge expense because none of what we had to do could have been carried out in the conditions predicted, way to dangerous. So that is a business perspective on an action that could have been cancelled due to some headlines.
On 15 Dec 2014, Richard Brown wrote:
Morning all! I am not going to wade in a knock Piers but just remember that the mobeeb are still going for a mild and wet winter and so far temps are just below average and we havent been deluged with rain. Anyway, I am looking for links to co2 information that offer an alternative view to the usual co2 causes global warming. Also, how long is it the global temp hasnt shown an increase? Thanks
On 15 Dec 2014, Sue (Dublin) wrote:
I think i'ii wait to comment about December when month is complete. But I do remember Piers you warned us "august would be hottest in 300yrs" and that was a wash out : /
People paying for a forecast expect more then a guess cast .
Seeing Piers putting a link on his Twitter account to a James Madden map and using The Express as a media platform doesn't feel me with confidence either. Sorry piers but I think things must improve drastically before Governments and folk who rely on forecast can use yours 100%.
Saturday morning was the only deeply cold morning we had here on the east coast.
On 15 Dec 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
A nice 7c here in dorset as I post this 6.45am with a bit of drizzle in the air , typical December weather damp and dark, may get some sunshine later. Thank goodness piers was wrong about the cold and snow hey.
We had a nice weekend with bright sunshine on Saturday Sunday was a good walking day here in Dorset, the English riviera.
On 15 Dec 2014, raig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
I'm going to say a bit further tomorrow when I have some time on what I see and about using the forecasts a bit. There is a long way to go this winter. If you can read Piers update on the homepage. // Russ, I saw that Electric Universe link. I know a few people who had serious reservations about comet theory but they are not open to Elec Universe just yet. They saw it coming too. Wal really has been vindicated in his criticism of the standard models continually failing not matching observations. Sadly no last rites as someone ran in the room crying 'more research needed'. I wish I was joking but I read that phrase in article on it the other day. It is often said a theory only finally gives up the ghost when it's supporters pass on. // Lima - how many poor people could have been hooked up to the grid instead of pampering the privileged? Cost/benefit analysis. I think the consensus was to hold more meetings and possibly more meetings about the meetings!
On 15 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Is anyone paying attention to the Bardarbunga volcano on Iceland? If that really goes, the ashes and melted ice of the glacier (steam!) will cause us some serious problems! OT - even though predictions of the KNMI are for warmer temps, temps have been dropping at night and we had some serious frost. Strangely enough older people are starting to compare this winter to the one of 1978/1979, when our country was hit by 3 major snow storms. The final and worst one - 14 February 1979 - actually isolated several villages and food supplies had to be flown in by helicopter. Maybe somebody could look and see whether there is any similarity in weather patterns between then and now?
On 15 Dec 2014, raig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
A few comments have been referred to Piers who will reply personally if needed. (Just to confirm I moderate and run the news blog. I am not an employee. I started as a sceptical warmist observer and became a sub. I help out as I think this is a great forum.). I would also add don't forget this is a public forum and you are always welcome to email or call Piers to discuss a forecast personally. If you post something on here many of us like to chip in and help as Piers does reply but he's often travelling or working on forecasts so you might have to wait a wee bit. Personally I like the community aspect as it's something I see on good forums where others help answer queries. So please when you write a terse reply, even if is not your intention to come across that way (online communication is fraught with crossed wires), remember the intention may have been to help. It goes both ways too so to those who help (me included!) we need to make sure we are not being terse/tetchy either.
On 14 Dec 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, strong WSW blowing all night, a little rain during the night, frost all gone. Stiff wind continued during the day, max temp 7˚, cloudy & slight drizzle in the morning, brightening up to good sunshine for the afternoon, clear sky evening, beautifull starry heavens, 2˚ at 9.30pm, frost on car and tulip pots, will be a cold night again after the mild interlude.
On 14 Dec 2014, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
Why don't we all calm down and perhaps take some measures to prepare for possible snow chaos. If Piers gets it wrong big deal, at least he is more reliable than 4he bloody Met Office! It is them and others who get it wrong and get away with it! It's also people like Madden who give Piers a bad name.
On 14 Dec 2014, Brandon wrote:
VERY VERY interesting the winter of 1947 looks insane,mthe topic I spoke about in earlier posts regarding interest and wondering what it was like itv2 is showing old footage of the 1947 event with 6 ft of snow hitting the Midlands and snow falling everyday in the country and THIS!! didn't start until end of January interesting stuff hopefully a snow southern England will happen plenty a time for this to come about!
On 14 Dec 2014, Brandon wrote:
Currently watching snowstorm: britains big freeze and is explaining the snow events in southern England! Damn I am wondering how long it will actually be before this happens even a few inches down here would be good! Hoping we get a few snowfalls this year and early next before spring makes its way in fingers crossed!
On 14 Dec 2014, @Piers_Corbyn twitter for FIRST NEWS wrote:
WHAT AND WHERE? Steve NO! The forecast read it all is clear FEET OF SNOW IN NE ENG AND SOUTH SCOTLAND. It explains EAST PARTS INC LONDON AND SE. BECOMING EXTREMELY COLD.
On 14 Dec 2014, Steve James ( 90 day sub) wrote:
@Maverickman. Sure I get it, however, you perhaps confuse business reliance with just a passing interest. When a expert has a 80% confidence about anything it underlines specific details given their expertise and insight, such as SLAT. Your interspersion on this subject is whimsical, at best. Perhaps if your livelihood and that of hundreds of cattle hundreds of acres of crops etc, and those people who are out in the weather at 2-3-4 in the morning looking after such interests you may have a different perspective than that surmised by your comment. I support WA and their efforts 100% on the warming nonsense and I know how Piers works hard under great ignorance by those who supposedly represent us, however, there are times to admit error as opposed to ramping up frosty mornings and icy puddles that remain icy throughout the day! When you run a business such as WA you have to give your clients/customers a better angle than, if only it was a bit colder etc. I hope you understand my views.
On 14 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote:
Re steve james Which is why i feel its extremely important for weatheraction to comment on the rest of December to subscribers, i didnt realy want to go there, but to russ and the like here's the quote
FEET OF
SNOW IN
PARTS.
East
parts inc
London + SE.
Thats why gill and i and other South subscribers commented
On 14 Dec 2014, TheMaverickMan (Matt - subscriber) wrote:
Steve James - Weatheraction has always only ever been 'possibility' science as Piers Corbyn says repeatedly to anyone who cares to listen.
I'm a WA supporter because it is quite clear that the SLAT method shows a forecasting ability far greater than chance, but it is not yet accurate enough to plan your wedding day by.
On 14 Dec 2014, Steve James ( 90 day sub) wrote:
All these efforts by the WA groupies on here are all well and good, and stating that emotional people who want snow are bitterly dis appointed are ridiculous to the extreme. As a professional business man and farmer who relies on the weather more than most, and the effects of getting it wrong can be catastrophic to the tune of thousands of pounds, cold weather in winter is normal. However, when specialists warn of dire cold and feet of snow in specific areas and time frames, and then after the event attempt to explain it way, as, what would have happened if, is nothing more than a failure and a waste of money. I am now beginning to realise that WA, despite all the fancy graphs and charts (from other organisations) displays , as far as the UK is concerned , nothing more than 'possibility' science., and what would/should have happened.
However you look at the past week or so the 80% confidence was wrong, despite snow and ice in the North (which is normal) is not exactly rocket science !
On 14 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Milder 9 deg. today but feels cooler than 9, wind NNW
approx. 21 kph grey with light drizzle style rain on and off all day...
On 14 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote:
Re Russ. To be honest mate, i just buy the forecast, i understand about coronal holes, flares and magnetic connections, but i leave it to someone who has studied it most of his life and makes a living out of it., which is why i PAY for it. Im not interested in other areas that are easier to forecast, im interested in the area that i live in.
We have some other periods within this month which are interesting, we cannot discus them as Mr Corbyn has not revealed details to the public, i understand Mr Corbyn says the forecast proceeds as normal, so, much for us weather geeks to come. I take nothing to heart if people have different opinions, everyone who buys a forecast is entitled to their opinion.Winter must be a beautiful time of year for you up in Derbyshire, I walked many times around Edale and the first part of the Pennine way, at this time of year which ever way the wind is blowing its cold on the tops!
On 14 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Re: Westerly winds.... The winds across the UK today Sunday 14th are definitely more WNW than N or NE except maybe the far north of Scotland..but..if you look at sat24.com there's a jet-stream pulse of Arctic air blasting down at us from the NW (Greenland & Iceland) but at the last moment is being pushed in towards us from a more westerly direction. The air is still frigid but is hitting the UK from the west. All things that are very hot glow, but not all things which glow are very hot (Dr Judy Wood). As with the UK winds, N and NE winds are 'usually' cold and W winds are 'usually' warm and moist. But not always! So not all cold winds come from the north or east... So a nice mix of warm, moist Atlantic air and a strong jet-stream pulse could combine to create lots of snow. Yes I am still very confident even if the heavy snow up to now didn't materialise. FICKLE STUFF!
On 14 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Piers - add South Central too - yesterday ice remained on my strawberry plants and small shaded pools of water were part frozen all day. (Shady NE facing corner but had been exposed to sunshine in the afternoon). By contrast after a hard frost last night all gone by 11 today. Had the precipitation not cleared we could easily have had snow as the cold air came south. The 850hpa temperatures (cold uppers) have been persistent feature of the NW flow this month. Looking at temps on earth.nullschool.net noticeable how the green spread into Northern Continental Europe with blues above. Didn't look all that cold but ask the Germans! Also Scot featured as a positive anomaly yesterday for snowcover === http://ow.ly/FRhoX === ///
You can now view animated GFS output which helps show wind direction. Much better === http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_3d.php
On 14 Dec 2014, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote:
Glad to see people have calmed down a bit looks like the weather affects us emotionally ,physically and mentally lol ,Piers keep doing what your doing Britain is always on that boundary of mild versus cold battle ,which is why we can have some incredible snow falls my birthday walk home Dec 2nd-2010 was one of them good job i had had a few sherries so to speak 1.5 miles of heavy snow i wont forget ! Just remember we are here for a reason we dont trust the bbc/met ,YES i wanted PIERS warning to be right Im in the north east but snow that fell was higher up and further away but not lasted ..shame really but im sure Piers will again take all these things into equation for any other similar events ..improvements etc,Lets not dwell on this Im sure people have to remember his strike rate is well above standard models etc we just need a huge Tug to pull this island of ours closer to Europe then it would be easier cough cough perhaps!!!!!
On 14 Dec 2014, TheMaverickMan wrote:
My 6-month analysis of Weatheraction back in 2012 concluded that Piers frequently forecasts the general pressure pattern close to accurate, but because Britain is such a small country then a small divergence in where pressure areas are can cause the weather forecast to be wrong. That was the case in January when Piers correctly forecasted the waves of low pressure that brought heavy rain, but he thought Ireland would get the soaking rather than Somerset. A similar thing has happened over the last few days.
On 14 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Just like to add, that the importance of cooling, especially rapid cooling cannot be underestimated. Think how long it takes for your area to warm up in the spring, then think how rapidly everything can go from 16C down to 2C in a matter of a couple of days, and can stay there for weeks in the late autumn. The biggest temperature change of any month is during October, just after the autumn equinox...think about it. A new study shows a probability that the Mastodon and Woolly Mammoth were killed by cold. It's also said that the dinosaurs 'could' have been wiped out by the rapid onset of a severe mini ice age. Most vegetation is killed, the herbivores rapidly starve, the meatasaurusses run out of herbivore burgers, and then each other. The only things left were smaller than a few kilo's in both the seas and on land. Rapid cooling fits the bill nicely in severity and timing. No need for aliens or asteroids. The sun burps and almost everything dies, then starts all over again...simple!
On 14 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
cont'd 5... You must not forget that one of the most important factors is cooling. Both cooling and the changing magnetic effects from the sun combine to create vicious storms. A direct hit from a strong CME can give the storm of the century if close to an equinox. Take away the CME direct hit and you'll still get a storm but a weaker one. Don't just imagine the electrical effect on the UK alone though because the hits are global. It's only a weak field change but over a gigantic area, with electrical charge surges occurring across whole continents. Anyone who wants to argue that the field is too weak to matter, just remember the Carrington Event of 1859 >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859 <<... I rest my case m'lud!!
On 14 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
cont'd 4.... The standard weather model as to why Gill gets a raw deal in forecasts of extreme weather is extremely complicated due to it being wrong, and needing many contradictory explanations and excuses for why things occur the way they do. But the simple
explanation doesn't keep 2,000 people at the Met Office in a secure job! (wink) Mid summer, sun over the equator, full moon, equals warm, lazy, calm, clear sky, sunny days on end, does it not? Give me and autumn equinox and new moon, plus a couple of CMEs combined with a large coronal hole, and I'll put money on the table that says we are in for a bad storm! con'td...
On 14 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
cont'd 3...... The effect on gas molecules in our atmosphere is to push them into a spiral vortex
(Kristian Birkeland explained the mechanism in space), apply it to the atmosphere to get a clearer picture. As these vortices make their way from a strong magnetic zone to a weaker one to try and become electrically neutral, they run into the UK which sits, if I remember correctly, very close to a weak zone. The zone is weakest near Scotland and Scandinavia and stronger near France, the Mediterranean and the Atlantic Ocean. So the biggest drop in magnetic strength is near NW Scotland and the lesser drop is near the SE UK. The big change in field strength is one of the main factors driving the extremes, therefore we get less extremes where the change in magnetic field strength is less. We have to stop thinking in terms of warm and cold air wafting around, and start thinking about the effects of magnetic fields and their electrical effects on atoms and gas molecules. cont'd...
On 14 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
cont'd 2....... The biggest varying factor is the seasons. In other words, the effect is weakened or strengthened
depending on the position of the sun relative to our equator. Stability close to equinoxes for instance, and don't forget the moons regular influence which can upset the apple cart. I know it's a bit clichéd but the analogy of the bar magnet and iron filings is the easiest but very crude way of showing the magnetic effects on the weather, but if you move the magnet, the filings move. The invisible force field can arrange the filings in order to follow the field. In a similar way, earth sets the basic field, then the sun's field interferes with this, then bashes the field repeatedly with bursts of charged plasma (solar wind) which wobbles the earth's field back and forth causing electric charge to flow through the gas molecules in the atmosphere, and the ground, and everything else from your body to a tree to oceans. cont'd...
On 14 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
stephen parker... Am I suggesting that it's 'impossible' (?) to forecast for the SE UK? Not sure where I suggested
that but as you head toward the S and SW of the UK the weather becomes more stable and less likely to get extremes. On the other hand, as you head further N and W the weather becomes more chaotic, yet easier to predict extremes, simply because extremes are much more likely in that area. The far NW of Scotland, Ireland and Wales all get regular blasts of gales and rain, and the far SW but as you get closer to the SE you rarely get gales or storms unless it's a rare 'and' extreme event. This can be witnessed by anyone regularly monitoring tv or radio broadcasts. The global position is crucial. Look carefully at magnetic field maps showing the weaker and stronger zones of the earth's magnetic field. Then look at the usual weather patterns over the UK. You should find a surprising match in the shape of the magnetic field strength and the most common wind patterns. cont'd...
On 14 Dec 2014, Geoff wrote:
The forecasts for UK seem to me to be broadly on the money most of the time, but the accuracy of the forecast in respect of precise location is still subject to quite considerable 'error'-in shooting terms grouping is good, but application is still more uncertain-especially in relation to GB/Ireland. Big Oceans generate uncertainty, Big Continents aren't so bad?
Is it possible to actually state such probabilities up front? If the 100 day forecast was for a big storm around 5-9 Dec high probability hitting the western seaboard, peak intensity within +/- x miles,likely consequences wind/precipitation of such and such probabilities, and these were refined (or not) at each revision down to the 30 day one (or closer for more serious risks) we users would have a clearer picture of the inherent uncertainties than the single probability covering all key variables.
It might perhaps be helpful to avoid the more apocalyptic style of prose. And more general UK/W Europe forecast could also he
On 14 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote:
Ruairí, The snow moving east was the for the 5th/8th, not for the 12/16th
On 14 Dec 2014, Stu wrote:
Hello Piers (and all),
I have one additional comment about a graphic that appears on WeatherAction's front page: the radar image from 0520 on 12th Dec (see https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B4q13FEIIAIO4N-.jpg)
In his commentary, Piers says: "Snow Report BI 5.20am
There is snow shown in South Midlands and (had been) a lot Yorkshire-Lancashire (eg pic just below) and there appears to have been a small hit just North of Portsmouth."
Piers, I think you should have investigated the weather situation at the time further. The radar erroneously shows snow S Midlands (I checked Metars/synops), it was just cold rain. I know your comment says the radar SHOWS snow, rather than saying it IS snow, but a quick check would have verified that it WASN'T snow.
Also why would Portsmouth have snow and nowhere else nearby? It was 8-9C in the area at the time. What looks like snow is the map's colouring for urban area - you can see it now on http://meteoradar.co.uk/. Please double check in future.
On 14 Dec 2014, Stu wrote:
Piers: "Our offer to BBC was for them to interview me NOT to give them a forecast which they would misrepresent. In interview I would keep it simple to the effect that Serious cold, snow, winds etc were coming; the MEtO forecast points in the wrong direction and the NHS and public will suffer. 2 Your info on 1947 is incorrect btw. The big SNOW then was NOT JAN BUT FEB and the first 10 days of March."
Thanks for your reply, I am very glad you engage with criticism. I ran out of space; I could have gone on about 1947 - but if IIRC, the cold arrived 21st Jan; sure it stayed cold & snowy after that! But you rather proved my point: there has been no sign of the worst snow and gales in 100 years; there were several worse events during 1947, and that's just one winter.
Sounds from your planned BBC interview that you were confident of colder with wind + snow. Had you forecast that - not 'worst in 100 years' - I would have been impressed. As it was, I consider it misleading at best.
On 14 Dec 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK. Sub wrote:
Yes piers I do understand but you are saying the snow and wind,wild weather etc we had in the forecast went to the bleeding Germans instead, lol. Hope the wild jet stream weather does not catch you out to much as we know the British Isles are a notorious place to forecast the weather, the USA seems much easier to see I recon as you seem to get that right, but your GB can be out by quite a lot.
Good luck though I for one will not be betting on a white Christmas this year but will wait and see, very interesting all the same keep up the good work ignore my tongue in cheek comments just like to say as I see it.
On 14 Dec 2014, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
Subscribers will note last week's predictions from Piers said the whole snow chaos could move to mainland Europe and it did. Roll on this week, even Met Éireann are seeing snow at the end of the week!
On 14 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote:
I think we should move on now, clearly there are different interpretations of the success ( ahem) of the forecast period 12/16.
I am a 30 day subscriber,i would like to know weatheractions confidence level for the rest of the forecast for December. Like most on here, im just interested and don't need to plan my life around forecasts .
Recent events have certainly enlivened the comments section and long may it continue.
On 14 Dec 2014, Chris wrote:
Well this has dithered my hopes for snow in the South East of england I really have high hopes snow will not be arriving for these parts and the patten which people are picking for a weeks time I bet will not happen,mthe southeast will not experience snow like dec/jan 2010 this year 1963 will not happen models say so if so models suggest warm air in a weeks time highs of 12 I call bs for a bad winter at this end maybe cold air but that's it at the least.
On 14 Dec 2014, @Piers_Corbyn twitter please follow wrote:
CONTINUED == STU re BBC 1. Our offer to BBC was for them to interview me NOT to give them a forecast which they would misrepresent. In interview I would keep it simple to the effect that Serious cold, snow, winds etc were coming; the MEtO forecast points in the wrong direction and the NHS and public will suffer. 2 Your info on 1947 is incorrect btw. The big SNOW then was NOT JAN BUT FEB and the first 10 days of March. The thaw-floods and gales on 10 March (My birthday!) mainly caused the deaths (note not in a winter month - for the purpose of comparison). 3 JAN 1987 was quite snowy but the main hit was extreme cold blasts -12C on 12 Jan in South rather than BLIZZARDS AND GALES which is what we warned of for part THIS DEC and in fact both of which have happened in places especially some pretty damaging gales - mostly with snow.
On 14 Dec 2014, @Piers_Corbyn Twitter please follow! wrote:
== CONTINUED == Re FORM & CONTENT OF POSTS, YES CRAIG Thanks as always for very informative posts and your advice to ALL: 'TAKE A MOMENT BEFORE POSTING' re Are 'facts' in fact 'facts' and has something been expressed in a constructive manner or the opposite? == DAVID (winter sub) to say the forecast was wrong from 6th does not accord with observations & reports. We forecast general developments weeks or months ahead. Read our forecast and write out an opposite forecast and see what the real weather fitted best. Or compare ours and Met Office first go at winter (mildist stuff issued 11/12 Nov for Dec). The answers are obvious. Those WINDS for one were important and the SNOW and COLD that was as well. THANKS FRED for your notes on those. == CRAIG Point about upper air cold good call is important. Our view is things come from above (Solar wind etc) so it makes sense. == TRAVEL DISRUPTION (INC AIR) There was quite a lot BTW & some winds esp caused air probs+delays and knock-ons it appears.
On 14 Dec 2014, @Piers_Corbyn Twitter please follow! wrote:
== CONTINUED == Re FORM & CONTENT OF POSTS, YES CRAIG Thanks as always for very informative posts and your advice to ALL: 'TAKE A MOMENT BEFORE POSTING' re Are 'facts' in fact 'facts' and has something been expressed in a constructive manner or the opposite? == DAVID (winter sub) to say the forecast was wrong from 6th does not accord with observations & reports. We forecast general developments weeks or months ahead. Read our forecast and write out an opposite forecast and see what the real weather fitted best. Or compare ours and Met Office first go at winter (mildist stuff issued 11/12 Nov for Dec). The answers are obvious. Those WINDS for one were important and the SNOW and COLD that was as well. THANKS FRED for your notes on those. == CRAIG Point about upper air cold good call is important. Our view is things come from above (Solar wind etc) so it makes sense. == TRAVEL DISRUPTION (INC AIR) There was quite a lot BTW & some winds esp caused air probs+delays and knock-ons it appears.
On 14 Dec 2014, @Piers_Corbyn (TwitterStream please follow) WA Forecaster wrote:
THANKS ALL FOR IMPORTANT OBSAND INTERESTING COMMS == Please read my general Comment written 13/14th above. Note apols to all for delay in putting up posts due to various travelling factors. == ALL! DONT GET LOST IN THE SNOW (or rather dont get lost in loosing the snow) in part of the UK; read about the reasons! If it was about any other part of Br+Ire many wouldnt notice or moan! It should be noted that there was significantly more snow at various times so far this month than one would believe from just watching the BBC and those who complain they didnt get feet of snow wherever they lived should look on the map and ask if they lived in ~NE England which was where that possibility was indicated and was where there was most snow in fact. == Forecasts must be quoted accurately. It's a tired old trick of warmists/modellists to attack that we didnt forecast something we in fact didnt forecast. STEVE JAMES 'snowmageddon as forecast' ?? NO that phrase was NOT in the forecast so why use it?
On 13 Dec 2014, Rohan wrote:
Perhaps in the renewed (after a quiet few days) solar activity Paddy - M1 solar flare today... together with the fast solar stream the earth is currently passing through......
On 13 Dec 2014, Kris wrote:
I must say Piers, the period has been rather overhyped. Snow over higher ground across Northern Britain is hardly unusual - should it have warranted the public warning you issued? Probably not. Had you have predicted a colder period of weather with snow over the higher ground then that would have been an accurate forecast. As it is, without a significant turnaround in fortunates, comparisons to December 2010, as was provided in your public warning, are rather misleading
On 13 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote:
Looks like end of december/ jan could be interesting, time to move on now.
On 13 Dec 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-2˚C again at 7.30, quite sunny morning with very light WSW breeze, ground frozen all day, cloudier afternoon, stronger wind by evening & feeling milder even though still only 2˚ by 8.30pm, approaching warm front from the Icelandic Low. MO saying 7˚ tomorrow - oh winter, where is thy sting?
On 13 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Cold overnight around -2 temp. still only -1 @ 10 a.m frosty and icy, clearing then cloudy by 3 pm Max. 4 deg. today dropping back to 2 deg by 4.30 / 5 pm and now showing 4 at almost 8pm... also one sleety hail type short shower early afternoon, was starry now partly cloudy.
On 13 Dec 2014, steven James wrote:
I see Heathrow disruption as predicted by Weatheraction !! Not for the snow. No 'feet' of snow as indicated...but a tech fault. So when will we see the snowmageddon as forecast Piers !? give or take a few weeks either side of course. There has been no unusual weather activity not normally seen in any winter either ! A few blizzards here and there is normal for winter. Perhaps Jan /Feb will be more obliging!? I support your theories on the CO2 debate also. I am looking for more reliability before committing to Company forecasts.
On 13 Dec 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:
Obs from East Berks. Frost Friday night into Saturday. Beautiful, clear, sunny day - not a cloud in the sky and very little wind. High of 6 degs and on the point of freezing again now at 7.30pm.
On 13 Dec 2014, Christine Gaskill (subscriber) wrote:
Beautiful, sunny, frosty morning here in the Chilterns!
On 13 Dec 2014, JohnE wrote:
Well I am not going to criticise anyone but the headlines have been a little over the top given what weather we actually did get in terms of snow but its not just WeatherAction, there are others who predicted some fairly nasty snow events and to be honest they have all come to nothing. We expect to see snow in parts of Scotland at this time of the year, indeed for the last couple of years the skiing season north of the border has been starting at the end of November and continuing until mid spring. Yes in the higher parts of Derbyshire and Lancashire there has been snow but beyond that there has been nothing to shout about. I begin to wonder if in fact the MO have got it right and that this winter will be "normal" rain, wind, cold then milder, bits of snow and so on with nothing in the way of the colder winters of the 60's and 2010
On 13 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
This morning two cold and temp dropping showers, after which the sun came out. Currently (1PM) almost clear skies and mild temps of about 6C. Funny effect of the house: when it's cold out, the two heaters will provide an ambient (in our opinion) temp of about 15-16C inside and keep temps to about 12-13C in the early morning with the heaters off. Now that it's warming up again, the stored cold in the outer walls drops the inside temp in the morning to just above 10C. Should improve when we put a layer of hemp stucco on the inside walls, hopefully. Oh, here's a nifty little idea for recycling old bicycle frames into X-mas reindeer. I'm making one this coming week ;-) http://bit.ly/1zMgmP2
On 13 Dec 2014, Fred wrote:
Models are hinting at something more interesting developing in about a weeks time with more amplification and tentative signs of a -ve NAO for Xmas period. That pattern if emerged would bring the sort of weather many anticipate with deep cold and plenty of snow.
MetO even touting early signs of pattern change around Xmas to -ve NAO signature. That means it will be mild and stormy then...
I'm resigned to the fact that the Azores High Pressure has been too 'stubborn' and prevented the FULL development of the 'cold extreme ' pattern forecast by Piers and that it won't actually happen in the next few days either.
Although models do shift somewhat in detail, the 500mb upper flow anomaly can be a decent guide to the hemispheric set up and no immdeiate dramtic change is in the offing but similar to what we've just had is showing....but not as stormy.
However, more interesting periods ahead this month and so I'm moving on from this period now.
On 13 Dec 2014, Steve D wrote:
James Madden of all people calling for repeat of 1963 Winter from New Year onwards in the Mirror today. Now where have I heard him say that before? Yawwwn.
On 13 Dec 2014, C. View wrote:
@Richard Traut. You make a very point, one assumes that if WA are prepared to go public with their jealously guarded forecast and issue a public warning a few days ahead of the expected event then they must have indeed nailed it. What worries me about Piers making these proclamations which don't come pass such as this period, the record August heat and apocolyptic rain for the end of July is that it makes it more likely that people will dismiss his methods and help prop up the standard met/warmist view. A better strategy I feel would be to be less detailed, what he said after the MO had said that this winter would wetter milder and windier up to the turn of the year was a good example when his reply was that this was 95% likely to fail which is what has happened. If what the MO said had come to pass then we wouldn't be seeing the Scottish ski season getting underway today at Cairngorm.
On 13 Dec 2014, Stu wrote:
Bold claims such as 'most extreme 5 days of snow blizzards and gales for 100 years', 'more severe than worst events of Dec 2010' and 'feet of snow' are combined with the claim that 'We offered the BBC the chance to issue this free at the end of November but they refused.'
I know it's only the 13th, but how can this forecast possibly be correct? Although it's unlikely, if heavy snow fell across the UK for the next 4 days, it couldn't be the worst for 100 years - or have you forgotten how extreme some snow events have been in the last century (think Jan 1947 & 1987 as examples, more recently Dec 2010 of course)?
Now, I do ask this as a genuine question: IF the BBC HAD chosen to run this story at the end of November - that 12-16th Dec would have the most severe snow and gales for 100 years - what would you be saying about the BBC based on recent weather and the present forecast? I'll add a caveat: IF the source of the forecast was NOT WeatherAction. What would you think then?
On 13 Dec 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK, sub wrote:
Well it is egg on face time piers you were out about the forecast as I see it.
On 13 Dec 2014, Stu wrote:
Bold claims such as 'most extreme 5 days of snow blizzards and gales for 100 years', 'more severe than worst events of Dec 2010' and 'feet of snow' are combined with the claim that 'We offered the BBC the chance to issue this free at the end of November but they refused.'
I know it's only the 13th, but how can this forecast possibly be correct? Although it's unlikely, if heavy snow fell across the UK for the next 4 days, it couldn't be the worst for 100 years - or have you forgotten how extreme some snow events have been in the last century (think Jan 1947 & 1987 as examples, more recently Dec 2010 of course)?
Now, I do ask this as a genuine question: IF the BBC HAD chosen to run this story at the end of November - that 12-16th Dec would have the most severe snow and gales for 100 years - what would you be saying about the BBC based on recent weather and the present forecast? I'll add a caveat: IF the source of the forecast was NOT WeatherAction. What would you think then?
On 13 Dec 2014, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
Met Éireann forecasting heavy rain for tomorrow. Severe frost again this morning.
On 12 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Just a quicky cos its getting late and I'm off to bed. I see the move into Europe is powering up like this ... >> http://iceagenow.info/2014/12/snow-brings-traffic-standstill-hessen-germany/ << I wouldn't bother with the link unless you got an A-star in German literature..... Craig...point taken sir! I am now relaxed and breathing deaply.
On 12 Dec 2014, Asim ( sub) wrote:
Is it true that next week is going to be mild with westerly ??
On 12 Dec 2014, Asim ( sub) wrote:
Hi piers could you explain if we are in for a cold spell still this December. Or is it going to stay cool or mild.. At the moment we've got very mild conditions still her down in the London area.... And still waiting for this big freeze.. Thank you.. As where in that period time frame now. Thank you
On 12 Dec 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Strange weather today: icy start at -2˚C but didn't feel cold on account of it being very dry, quite sunny morning with a good WNW wind blowing. Then, around 1pm, there was a sudden change to slightly less cold and very damp air, cloud returning & eventually followed by drizzle, all still from a WNW direction, max temp 3˚, down to 1˚ by 9pm with a peculiar mixture of wet and ice under a starry sky. The frost never left the ground, not great driving conditions. == I can't add anything sensible to the right-or-wrong conversation, except to say that debate is a good thing and I do appreciate the measured tone of it. The show's never over till it is and I have to say that for myself I'm happy we're not under feet of snow (yet) as it has allowed us to continue with winter maintenance work on the farm. Looking at the weather maps though, it seems to me that the conditions are now right for the white stuff with the N'ly airflow in place. I'm sure we'll hear more from Piers
On 12 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote:
RUSS,are you suggesting that its impossible to forecast for the south east? and that anyone south of bedford should not bother with the forecast?
On 12 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
wind here has switched from NNW to N was really starry now partly cloudy... Man I wish it would snow right now it's like OCD Snow Tension :-)
On 12 Dec 2014, jpt wrote:
I love Piers and will back him to the hilt BUT 'worst snow for 100 years and more severe than Dec 2010' is just WAY out.
End of.
In fact most of the country has had no snow whatsoever.
On 12 Dec 2014, jpt wrote:
I love Piers and will back him to the hilt BUT 'worst snow for 100 years and more severe than Dec 2010' is just WAY out.
End of.
In fact most of the country has had no snow whatsoever.
On 12 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
California storm === http://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2014/12/10/mega-storm-with-hurricane-force-winds-and-flooding-is-on-the-way-to-california-usa/ === Interesting. Mentions Dec 2009 floods covered here ===
http://nydailynews.com/news/national/california-storm-mudslides-floods-trap-cars-evacuate-homes-article-1.197032 ===
Coming off the back of a long drought also ===
http://pacinst.org/publication/impacts-of-the-drought-2007-2009/ === El Nino pattern. Days after in 2009 the cold pattern marched in. Not same of course this year but striking as 2009 came up a few times for me in the lead up to this winter. I am also wondering if the polar low I mentioned earlier delayed/modified the forecast pushes which may be stronger later? I need to look at this and revisit 09/10 (very different solar cycle effects though as the sun was quiet then. Now is confused. Elevated flux (130-150), low to moderate sunspots (below 100) but CME & flaring sputtering like a car with no gas.
On 12 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
'Mudslinging' probably not the best choice of words by Russ although this has been followed up well by some healthy discussion which benefits all. No more mention of that word now please. Online forums are always so easy to come across poorly so take a moment before posting. If any of us get our backs up we instantly put the other person on the defensive (handbags at ten paces - I've done it myself and thankfully those comments were not released). Remember that new subs need assistance in the forecasts (I know I did). WA are not like other forecasts and take a bit of work. It's well worth it. // From the news blog; Greenpeace tyranny ===
http://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2014/12/11/greenblob-guerillas-in-geoglyph-gaffe/ === Paul Homewood compares sea ice from 100 years ago to now (excellent read for understanding sea ice) === http://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2014/12/11/shackletons-ill-fated-voyage/ ===
On 12 Dec 2014, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote:
Russ ...we support Piers i have subscribed on and off fr 4 years now but when its worded like this..DEEP SNOW likely in E +NE(espec)FEET OF
SNOW IN
PARTS.
England & South Scotland. Airports likely
disrupted inc Heathrow + Gatwick. as public are warned ,then im sorry as a paying member we are entitled to an opinion !! We dont trust the met/bbc at all as they constantly get it wrong from just a few days out.!!!! The good as well as the bad is pointed out ie Piers certainly got the colder periods right even if not as long as predicted most of the snow was higher ground and not specific in the main danger area but im sure he will re evaluate why once the 16h has past !How i want him to be right every time to shut doubters up!! but no one is perfect (sorry Piers lol) Sometimes an open forum as this helps Piers as long as its clean and not overboard with criticism so he can tell us all his thoughts on what happens thank you,Richard. ps i want to build a snowman too.
On 12 Dec 2014, David (winter subscriber) Yorkshire wrote:
I do not see any mud slinging just feedback. We have to be allowed to give critique. The forecast has been wrong from the 6th onwards simple as that (very good before that) You can cherry pick bits and caveats all you like but it is for the most part inaccurate. The public warning made it seem like it was nailed on, just days before we got rain. Despite what the radar shows the snow is reserved for the highest ground. I cannot see snow now next week to low levels. Just shots of colder air just like this week.
Thanks
On 12 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Gill.... you have the huge (warm) landmass of France less than an hours jog from your kitchen window. Scotland is surrounded by sea and, well more sea, better make that 'cold sea', and has Iceland and Scandinavia for distant neighbours. These two factors alone will play a huge part in our weather because we are a tiny island sitting slap bang in the middle of this hot & cold shower head we call the UK. Too complicated for a brief explanation but standard issue video's on YouTube about meteorology across the UK should tell you everything you need to know. The only negative factor I would mention would be the 'why' is everything the way it is? What is the true driver of an anti-cyclone? Warm air wafting around, or an electical environment hundreds of thousands of times more powerful than gravity, and something which can affect water vapour molecules and atmospheric gases to a much greater degree than warmth or gravity ever could. Not a simple explanation..you could move to Scotland hehe!
On 12 Dec 2014, Fred wrote:
Debate is healthy. Look amazing windstorm, snow for many, and also not for many. Piers' technique is without doubt very much grasping the situation weatherwise and from a phenomenal period in advance. But also we should be able to ask or mention when/why scenario hasn't/isn't fully panning out. On likely weather map low pressure should be sinking south and a Scandinavian High should be building west so northerly flow and Atlantic ridge amplifying with storm and snow for many....correct, low pressure to sink south and Scandinavian high to build with winds to go Ne the E....not yet and no immediate signs of that occurring in next 4 days..so a potential miss...can't say miss yet as 12th. Cold and very cold in places...a hit...extreme cold....and Gatwick and Heathrow disrupted....no. Some can be forgiven for feeling like Piers' forecast isn't happening as planned because WA reports suggest transport shutdown etc. WA work is excellent but Slat 11 itself suggests misses by previous slats?
On 12 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
I don't think the Azores matters as it is affected by other pressure cells elsewhere (ii.e. does not work on its own). The earlier unusual polar low over Siberia (late Nov) delayed the advance of cold pushing west as seen by the snow index. Bob W noted the high flux (promotes 'zonal' lifting of jet) at the time. That may be key. Not sure how or if this affects later forecasts but Piers will be on it and update if necessary.
On 12 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
I think Piers called the cold upper air well considering it was August he let us know but surface conditions were not as well matched. Moderate strat warming did occur (not a ssw). In the Euro fcast Piers had the two low cells pulling the cold air from the Arctic but they are further north (at present) than expected & so in the South especially we have had more influence of tropical air sectors which have been brief. The cold flow persists. This is because they are pushed up in the Atlantic then swept our way. A good example was earlier today when I saw the temp drop 1C in minutes around 1pm. I checked Wunderground stations & there were lots of 6-8C temps to Sth & East 2-5C Nth & West in the CET triangle area. The cold has killed off my nasturtiums which had lingered into 1st week of Dec. Trees now leafless - even with no 'blow' until last night. Snow has been seen locally but the odd flake only. I am disappointed too with no snow but many more opportunities to come.
On 12 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
One of the reasons I am so fascinated by the weather is because it can't be controlled, only understood.....1deg. And bloomin cold 18.18 pm
On 12 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
I agree Saskia, I knew not to send my kids to school when Piers predicted the big storm that came straight across the Midlands here earlier in the year, I doubted it as everyone told me it wasn't going to be that bad and Met only had a yellow warning, that afternoon at 2.15 pm it came through here so fast the met went from yellow to orange to red in an hour and a half by which time the worst was going through, at 3pm I was climbing over a fallen tree to get to my kids off the bus whilst another swaying overhead, I dread to think of what could have been. 2010 everybody told me to keep taking em when I warned of severe cold, many got caught out. It's not a case for me of proving Piers correct or otherwise it's just about being aware of the possibilities and the insights gained on this site are more valuable than the sub cost, even when I haven't been able to afford it the site gives more info than many..
On 12 Dec 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
maybe WA should have a more appropriate word than forecast, now that the dogmatic brigade are indeed slinging mud. I see the information as a POSSIBLE trend within a +/- timescale and within a percentage of accuracy but then again I have an open mind. Saskia I so agree with you, I was warned for winter 2010 and had enough stores in to last the 6 weeks we were confined here
On 12 Dec 2014, Ann(Wicklow) wrote:
Frosty all day here. No snow but no thaw either. Had to clear ice from car at 4pm.
On 12 Dec 2014, Craig M (@craigm350, sub, Berks) wrote:
Saskia/Gerry - pyramid schemes require a constant stream of suckers. Post credit crunch an enormous 2nd (or 3rd or 4th!) mortgage was taken out so we could pay off the interest off & pay *some* cowboys to do more shoddy financial work. No trickling. *Some* banks actually grew in the recession. This provided the liquidity to keep green subsidies afloat when market forces would have adjusted like the dotcom boom (I worked for a dotcom during the bubble 'worth' £90m on a 2 yr start up - overvalued by ~800%) - the rough ride from that was lessened by more re mortgaging of futures post 9/11. It's not a sustainable model to prop up. Already the Fed are cutting the QE flow, Bank of Eng warning about interest rises, Japan not looking too good, China slowdown, Cameron's warning, oil & commodity prices dropping - let's just say the co2 market is not looking sustainable. It will be dropped but the damaging consequences of the legislation/borrowing (with nothing to show) will linger far longer.
On 12 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote:
Re Saskia. I dont think any regular subscriber thinks any forecast is 100%, through experience, and as Russ would point out, piers gives a confidence percentage on the forecast, for the 5-8 th it was 85%, and for this period its 80%. A free public warning was issued, and warnings of heathrow and Gatwick airport suffering disruption. My boss is flying out of gatwick to South Africa on the 16th, i debated whether to warn him last week, im glad i kept stum!.
Regular subscribers know the score through past experience, i for one will keep subscribing regardless of a few mistakes.
What i do think would be helpful to know is how this effects the rest of the December forecast
On 12 Dec 2014, suzy dorset wrote:
Well said Saskia, you hit the nail on the head!
On 12 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Look, folks. In this day and age, most people expect everything to be 100% correct, 100% risk free, 100% "on the spot when turning the knob/push the button" active, i.o.w. fault free. There is no such thing in Life. Having said that, Piers comes closest to being able to warn of (possible!) dangerous weather conditions, or more sunshine than predicted/expected. Personally, I would much rather look towards somebody telling me "Hey, careful, take into account that it COULD be snowing, or a storm COULD be developing which might cause lots of disruption". Even if it doesn't, at least I am forewarned and therefor forearmed. And if it doesn't happen, well, so be it. If it DOES then I am very thankful for having been warned way in advance, instead of suddenly being emerged in dangerous weather conditions. Back in Oct 2003, I warned our local villagers that things would get nasty, and we were able to prepare and avoid personal injuries. We kept our kids home. That's worth every dime spent!
On 12 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote:
Re Russ. I dont see anybody slinging mud, what i see are people who have paid for a forecast discussing it!.You obviosly feel that some subscribers cant read or understand the forecast properly, well i have been subscribing for over four years now and can assure you i do.
On 12 Dec 2014, Asim ( sub) wrote:
Heavy rain this morning in the heathrow area.... That's about it, what usually happens down here.. Temp gone mild at 7.
On 12 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Snow in Scotland and daffodils flowering in Dorset....that's UK weather for you....... In support of Piers, and with the greatest respect to the people who are throwing mud, I'd like to point out that on the forecast map (subscribers can check this), the word "LIKELY" can be clearly seen and is even highlighted in yellow!.... Definition: Likely; Has a high chance of occurring; Synonym: Probable........ The words 'LIKELY' and 'PROBABLE' do not mean IT WILL! .... It did turn much colder and it did snow in many parts of the country, as forecast up to today. The forecast detail for 5th - 8th stated (clearly highlighted in blue), "...AND THE WHOLE PATTERN COULD BE SHIFTED MORE INTO EUROPE"...Was the weather pattern shifting into Europe? Make up your own mind... >> http://bit.ly/1vJ3kM5 <<...>> http://bit.ly/1vJ3wel <<... On page 6 of the forecasts it states: THEY ARE NOT TO BE TAKEN AS EXACT PREDICTIONS.... Enough said!.....
On 12 Dec 2014, Ian wrote:
Piers forecasts are like an old clock which runs too fast or too slow. They give a general but not precise forecast of the weather.
On 12 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Ps have a look on Irish Weather online fb some reports of snow this a.m not just in Leitrim... Only 5 deg. here at 14.22 feels colder but still sunny..
On 12 Dec 2014, James (30 day sub) wrote:
Been snowing for the last 2 hours here in Buxton, Derbys quite heavy at times !
On 12 Dec 2014, Gazza wrote:
WOOPS !!
Snow North , Ice further south, my mistake
On 12 Dec 2014, Gazza wrote:
WOW !
Met Office weather warning for snow encompasses the top 3/4 of the UK for today and tomorrow. There was nothing a little earlier remotely like this on the Met site. That came from nowehere !!! Well, where the Met Office is concerned anyway, well spotted Piers !!
On 12 Dec 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Heavy hail storm probably around 5.30am as I had been woken up by my porch door being heavily shut by the newspaper deliverer. The battering against the window suggested a westerly wind as it faces that direction. Heavy drizzle in the air come going to work time and a strong breeze. No disruption on the trains. Crossing the river I noted that the swing flap drain in the embankment was discharging so there must have been a lot of surface water somewhere. No great puddles on the Downs.
On 12 Dec 2014, Gill1066 East Sussex (sub) wrote:
I am afraid I have to agree with Stephen Parker where he says - and I do - subscribe to find out what is happening in my area. What happens in Scotland is of no use to me regrettably, though Piers may be correct about that region time and time again. However the SE corner is important to me and often the forecast does not come true - not just over a matter of days, but per se. Andy said as farmers we need to subscribe to 45d. That unfortunately is not a viable financial option for this corner whilst things stand. Even I know that for the SE to get hit with major snow a'beast from the east' in Siberia needs to be heading our way. I don't know why this corner is so hard to be more accurate generally rather than specific- perhaps someone with more scientific knowledge could answer that one.
On 12 Dec 2014, stephen Parker (sub) wrote:
PIERS CORBYN. I got my wind direction for my area , Rickmansworth, from the met office web site, where it shows winds wnw ,going west this afternoon. You will see in earlier posts that I said we must wait till the 16th.
What I said is that your forecast needs nne winds.
Am I wrong?
On 12 Dec 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:
Obs from East Berks. Watched the temp rise last night as the south westerlies came in. Hit 10 degs. Very strong squalls and very heavy rain hurtled through in the early hours but rain stopped by about 7am. There is definitely a north/south divide but I'm not sure it has been as extreme as it could have been anywhere. It is currently 8.5 degs, dry and still overcast.
On 12 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
1 deg at 8 a.m frost and icy roads still only 2 at 11.15 sunshine and blue skies at the moment... Like Paddy said the weather is always evolving and it's too early to say, I'm sure I remember Piers saying that early December would be setting the stage for whats to follow and the forecast is going well in many areas so we need to let it play out, it's hardly warm and toasty and met forecasts have been all over the place...
On 12 Dec 2014, Steve D wrote:
Sleet now appearing as far south as Birmingham not far to my NW and edging closer. Current temperature 8.9c and falling slowly. Good spot Ruairi - what is that mass smashing into Scotland right now and was that forecast? The BBC Meto were plumbing for a dry and frosty night...developments should be interesting today!
On 12 Dec 2014, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
Just had a look at the latest satellite, a front moving down from the north and there does look like something larger developing behind it. Winds coming straight from the arctic. A llittle snow last night but followed by a harsh frost.
On 12 Dec 2014, ian wood wrote:
dog walk on the beach south Kerry, sunshine calm, clear blue sky. dog walkers commenting on the nice weather.
.is this where it starts to change ,I am thinking...by the time I walk round the strand again, the wind and clouds appear and im walking into sleet on the beach. poor visibility driving home...back to the cave it is then..
On 12 Dec 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
Am I the only one seeing R4 and R5 coming to fruition only not, thankfully in my area. Pressure now at 10am is 998, temp 8 degrees, wind right now is pure westerly. I have my fingers crossed that this area keeps clear, having been snowed in for weeks in 2010
On 12 Dec 2014, Barbara wrote:
0c on the North coast NI, we've had a hairy few days, windy, lots of thunder/lightning heavy rain,sleet and hail, and this morning snow, just a short skiff but now treacherous as it's still freezing!
On 12 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Wind in the UK prevents people from jumping off cliffs. ;-) http://www.dumpert.nl/mediabase/6630205/3396ac00/dikke_stormwoei_in_de_uk.html
On 12 Dec 2014, @piers_corbyn wrote:
STEPHEN PARKER. The forecast above for 12-16th says N'ly winds turning to N/NE'ly, NOT what you say. It is/was N'ly this morning over most of Br+Ir and was NNE in IR for a bit. We have to wait till 16th plus to assess all. More NE than NW WOULD be nice and more snow in South would be nice then I could build a snowman, but the GENERAL picture this morning is in line with our forecast of 27days and 100days ahead rather than MetO of 30, 20, 10d.....ahead.
On 12 Dec 2014, Alex wrote:
im also happy to say well done to piers and now i know exactly what you are up against with the deceitful and mis-leading warmists at the beeb and meto.
exacta weather have posted traffic camera photos of heavy snow across parts of lancashire and yorkshire from over night and some radar photos that show snow in the south, yet the scottish woman called carol on bbc breakfast kept saying their was only snow on the high tops. very naughty of the beeb and only because up until a few days a go they was forecasting no snow- so they try and make it look like you was wrong. exacta weather summed it up better than me but here are the photos link of all the snow that they must have got through the night to prove a point that the bbc tell lies to cover their own bums. i intend on emailing them today about it as its disgudting really
https://www.facebook.com/ExactaWeather/posts/799713843409869
good luck with the rest of your forecast. Alex
On 12 Dec 2014, linda wrote:
We usually get snow here but none so far rain and winds live in Brynmawr South Wales..............
On 12 Dec 2014, Steve D wrote:
The squall line hurtled through at 5:30am waking me up. Currently it's 9.5c and pressure has dropped to 983mb. Think we have no power upstairs right now. Brownout maybe? Boiler and fridge still working downstairs thankfully!
On 12 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote:
I think its natural that subscribers judge the forecast on what happens in their area, after all its why we buy the forecasts. I think fred has it rather nicely. The fact is we have W/NW winds when we're forecast to have N/NE is the crux of the matter
On 12 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Amazing. The Dutch snow radar http://www.buienradar.nl/sneeuwradar shows nothing close to snow, yet reports from Limburg province state that it has been snowing steadily. So far Piers has been able to predict circumstances for our area better than the KNMI; cold, wintry showers and yes, even the odd flake of snow. Consensus on what's about to come today vary. KNMI talks of wind gusts up to 100 km/hr for coastal areas. Right now it's blustery, about an 8BF. Yesterday was pretty stormy already with much hail and some rain. Temps feel like they're dropping, yet 'live' weather data show an increase. Sometimes I think more and more weather sites are either being manipulated or taken over, resulting in 'false' data being give to the public. Mind boggling, thinking about the possibility of a scam on a global scale, only to perpetuate this GW. And yes @Gerry, of course it will eventually come tumbling down. But how far up sh*t creek will we be before that happens?
On 12 Dec 2014, Justin (occasional sub) wrote:
sry, here's the full link for Real time snow radar
http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/Home/?type=rain-snow-sleet
On 12 Dec 2014, paul (sub) Acomb. York wrote:
I have to say im happy with the forcast. Over the past 3 days its been very cold, very windy with frequent rain and sleet. Today we had a big hail/ice shower which left it completely white over for a good few hours would love to send the pic. Its snowing in Grassington (north yorkshire) heavy now !
On 11 Dec 2014, Russ in/at/of/around Derbyshire wrote:
So nobody spotted my humungous mistake stating that the new moon is tonight? What a pillock! I'm going to shut up now and wait for the new moon to see if we get clear skies or rain! ...... There's been some very poor driving conditions on the motorways today; standing water, spray and mist on M1 - M42 - M5 ... not nice! Some sleet mixed in too. Our car windscreen had about 0.5 inch of white slushy snow on it at 7.30 this morning.
On 11 Dec 2014, Fred wrote:
Re posts re variables etc, Piers predicts specific events and synoptic scenarios....synoptic patterns are a nightmare for UK specific proximity and extreme weather is here and severe for far north ie Scotland ....however when Piers talks of extreme cold events and feet of snow and 2-3 weeks similar for E and NE one must anticipate that transient Pm blasts or alone are NOT the same thing? Still time for models to really amplify, but the window is narrowing now and still no change, Piers hits the money very often but this current event? Models aren't having any of it
On 11 Dec 2014, @Piers_Corbyn (Twitter) WA Forecaster wrote:
THANKS ALL COMMENTERS == A short comm on BBC Weather forecast-reports. Just seen 22.25 BBC news24. Schavernaker referred to 'potential' for snow Frid early morning when his own map showed wads of it in eg Yorkshire, Lancashire. Maybe 'potential' meant for the south but then he want on to say none there. The forecast was, as is often the case, largely about England South and East of Birmingham with little attention to anywhere which has had snow and is getting more by their own admission. It will be very interesting to see what total depths are reached in N England Frid and then of course anywhere in coming days. For what it's worth, and I don't spend much time concluding much from models, because nothing is over till it's over, the BBC MetO have been consistently over-mobile and this weekend ecmwf and BBC MetO are different (at present) on Sunday with more northerly flow from ecmwf. Subscribers to BI whole-Winter-Now already know there is plenty more action to come of all sorts!
On 11 Dec 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚C at 7.30 & staying there all day. Still fairly strong WNW winds off & on but mostly sunny with the odd extremely light snow shower; heard on the radio though that that the West was getting real snow in parts. Feeling very cold in the wind but dry, crunchy underfoot all day except where the sun touched the ground. 1˚ at 10pm as per thermometer, but frost on the ground, great starry sky. == Regarding Piers' forecasts: weather is not a mechanical affair that can be predicted to the day or hour, there are so many variables, it's like a living organism which follows certain laws but not always to the letter.
On 11 Dec 2014, Paul, Beds (Subscriber) wrote:
Anyone got any insights on this. Could an R5 in the near future be the harbringer of a supereruption. At least it would shut the global warming brigade up for good!
http://beforeitsnews.com/environment/2014/07/%E2%98%85yellowstone-fracking-makes-this-mega-super-volcano-on-high-alert-at-level-orange-a-clear-and-present-danger-yellowstones-road-closuresweb-cam-rerunsearthquakes-not-being-rep-2505394.html
On 11 Dec 2014, Danny wrote:
I have just watched a bbc met o forecast,, what a load of
stuttering rubbish, please every body watch the next bbc
forecast, there was plenty of the wind is em gonna be em windy, a little bit of wind up here..just em and ers, Come on
Met office you have just been given nearly £100.000000 and if thats all you can em and ers keep bloody erming. They dont have
a bloody clue, Two bob shysters.. W A fans,, WATCH AND SEE..
On 11 Dec 2014, Justin (occasional sub) wrote:
Real time snow radar http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/
On 11 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Windy overnight and cold rain & sleety rain persisting most of today as well and stayed blustery, around 4/5 deg. now @ 17.29 dark winters day.. roll on xmas holidays feel like hibernating!...
On 11 Dec 2014, Justin (occasional sub) wrote:
Hi All, I don't believe the CO2 thing is a religion but rather a successful business. They worked out how to make us pay for water which is plentiful and now they have worked out a way to charge us for air, only not the air we breathe in but the air we breathe out hehehe! Why do some people want to use the short range forecasts to prove the long range right when the short range change so often? Doesn't make sense to me! Surely just look out the window or check records after the forecast period has passed?
On 11 Dec 2014, Alistair wrote:
Richard, who says its going to be a one day event?
At the moment it appears that parts of Scotland and the north of England including Yorkshire, will see some snow tomorrow (Friday), but this wasn't forecast a couple of days ago by the met. So, who knows what may happen over the next 48 hours, if the last 48 are anything to go by then I believe its all to play for.
On 11 Dec 2014, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote:
Im a little bit gutted that the 12th-16th +/-1 event is going to be a one day event and not as public forecasted and not to as many places as in line with the forecast major disruption period a few days at least,,we have had only rain so far the only consolation is at least its more seasonal than last years wet and mild drabble thank you.
On 11 Dec 2014, Christine Gaskill (subscriber) wrote:
The weather has been breezy and cool (7 degrees) with scudding clouds in the Chilterns today. Piers was spot on with snow in Scotland as this report details http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-30428060
On 11 Dec 2014, Rohan wrote:
I notice that the MetO severe weather warning for snow and ice has been creeping down the country steadily since yesterday afternoon.
Its now down as far as the east midlands.
I wonder where it will be by 10:00pm this evening.......?
In Piers I trust.
On 11 Dec 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:
For the curious amongst you, go to the WunderMap interactive weather map radar & you can see where it is snowing, raining etc. At 2.30pm ooks like snow north of Dundee, a bit to the east of the M74 as far south as Newcastle but other than that mostly rain at the moment. Beware - it is oddly addictive! ;-)
On 11 Dec 2014, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Hi fellow weather enthuasts here in Dorset I am quite near 12/14 miles away from the coast about 230ft elevation, if it gets cold here I will know that the rest of dorset and probably the whole of the south coast is getting snow or cold, we have been spared any as yet and it has been especially calm so far and avg 10c temperature as I write this, as soon as it get,s colder or snow or wind I will post a heads up, not the 16th yet.
On 11 Dec 2014, stephen parker (30 day sub) wrote:
imho for the forecast to be deemed helpful the winds need to go n/ne
On 11 Dec 2014, WENDY wrote:
Sub. High Peak,Derbyshire.
Well! we had thunder,lightning,hail at 400 am.Snow on the ground this morning.Chaos on local roads ,with lorries broken down .Windy and cold,occasional sleety showers. turning to rain later this afternoon.Cars slowly following a gritter,and about time too,as high roads were not gritted
earlier in the week!
On 11 Dec 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
...Recall the time when if you added dotcom to your business it would soar because it was the way forward. Company valuations became ridiculous and eventually the market corrected itself as it always does. You can get a good return on wind investments of 5% but my concern would be bailing out when the time comes. How liquid are these bonds? WUWT has a very revealing piece on the collapse of the German energy market. Eon has had enough and is splitting itself between normal generation and 'renewables'. It makes good business sense for them and that it what they are beholden to their owners - the shareholders. They don't have to make energy if they don't want to any more. A lot of German industry has also reached the point at which investment and jobs are leaving not just the country but the EU as a whole. A shrinking German economy might just be the thing to bring the green energy/emissions scam in Europe down. Here's hoping.
On 11 Dec 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
I think we can be guilty of talking up the forecasts to people only to find that our expectations were not met. They are long range and as we have seen already totally out-gunning the MetO. Their claimed 5 day accuracy is a myth and many times they fail on 1 day ahead. It takes effort to record all their forecasts since they change so often and so you end up comparing their forecast a few days before with Piers from weeks ahead - not the a valid comparison.I talk in terms of probability and suggest that there might be something at a certain time which if it doesn't happen can be put down to there being some change that prevented it. I disagree with Saskia that the whole CO2 scam can't come tumbling down. People will make money as and when they can so there is currently money to be made emissions trading, building windmills and solar but this can all end. Chicago's carbon market closed because the market collapsed. The trick is in knowing when to get out. Think tech stocks...cont'd
On 11 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Been hailing on and off for the past few hours, temps are dropping. What the Dutch KNMI predicts will be a 9BF storm is almost completely ignored by windfinder.com http://bit.ly/1zTexOn but interpreted as being possibly much more severe by the German wetteronline.de site http://i61.tinypic.com/2airjhu.jpg Not sure where on the last site this chart can be found, I nicked it off a Dutch weather site ;-)
On 11 Dec 2014, Fred wrote:
Piers
SLAT 11 shifted outlook south, do you think that the scenario is going to develop/continue more north or shunted further east as in a caveat you placed ?
On 11 Dec 2014, Steve D wrote:
Just had a quick glance at the GFS 6z outlook (which apparently does not use actual readings from weather balloons so is considered less reliable than the 00z/12z). Talk about mild bias. Tonight's storm takes a slightly more northern track and negates any snow south of Manchester, rather than the line from Bristol to the Wash which showed on the 00z. Looks like this will be a case of 'Now-casting' and hoping for the best tomorrow. Currently 1009mb with pressure falling and 7c. Light showers just north of London, sleet falling across the higher ground of Wales and the Pennines, snow in Scotland.
On 11 Dec 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:
Obs from East Berks. Mild again. High yesterday of 12 degs, overnight low of 6 degs & currently 7.5 degs. Fairly brisk breeze coming in from almost due West. I have to say I hadn't really appreciated the caveat about the forecasts being long range trends - if I have that correct? Given the detailed nature of the time periods within the forecasts themselves, I thought they were more specific - if that makes sense.
On 11 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
yes it might help to make it very clear the long range is for whole britain and ireland with the 'detail' as likely outcomes but one can use the short rangers to see how that plays in detail. So has Britain and Ireland had a cold event over half of it? Yes. What were the official multi million £ models predicting 100 days or even 30 days ago? it wasn't this storm -which is why for most it seemed to 'come out of nowhere'. The official models are loaded to warming so will always try to 'get back on the warming track' and see any cold/storm as 'error'. So they don't predict them until the water come thro the cat flap. There are times WA forecasts that don't work in partial or full for the region which implies knowledge is not perfect and its a work in progress -work meto refuse to do '. There are times WA works in full in all aspects but in general its important not to over claim.
On 11 Dec 2014, Fred wrote:
Piers, thanks for immediate clarity.
On 11 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
"Planes were blown off course, trains were cancelled, roads closed, 30,000 people were left without power and a £2million wind turbine burst into flames......Passengers on board one heart-stopping easyJet flight from Bristol had to hold their breath as they landed in severe storms at Edinburgh airport. Other flights were cancelled amid safety fears.http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/224668/Smashed-by-weather-bomb The Daily Star reports Wednesday's conditions were so stormy that a 30ft waterfall was blown upwards. The freak phenomenon occurred at Kirkby Stephen in Cumbria.
Local resident Marcus Waghorn tells the paper: "That's got to be a world's first. I have lived around here all my life and I've never seen anything like that." Remember don't get locked into treating general long range regional like short range postcode forecasts. Meto didn't forecast any of this at all. Why not?
On 11 Dec 2014, @Piers_Corbyn WA Forecaster wrote:
GREAT COMMS ALL - Applications of Forecasts - FRED re your question. No! I wrote that because we have quite a lot of new interest and Subs and many treat the forecasts as if they are substitues for short range detail which they are not. This is explained in a number of places but not hitherto on improved Home page. Most long standing users are clear on this point. On what happens 12-16th we need to go through 12-16th before we know for sure and of course note we are about the whole of Britain + Ireland.
On 11 Dec 2014, Fred wrote:
Although the forecasts are for guidance and we are getting severe weather event in timing slot, this event is not as severe for cold or synoptic set up as forecast. I believe this Azores cut off High wasn't spotted and is preventing the prolonged whole country event occurring. The fact Piers put an anouncement out saying it is for guidance is sending out a possible alarm ?
On 11 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Yellow warning by Dutch KNMI for 9BF SW storm tomorrow, mention of rain and hail but nary a peep of snow. However, some smaller forecasting stations are starting to mention "the possibility" of wet snow. Inside temps this morning quite balmy, nearly 15C thanks to the little Taiwanese. Weather (and finances) have yet prevented a new flue to be installed for the Iron Monster, fingers crossed we'll get that in time for the colder weather. @BlackPearl - I recently debated with somebody on Twitter who works for a company trading in emissions.
Yes, you read that right; people/companies/countries trade in CO2 emissions. As long as money can be made from this GW it will never be debunked, no matter how convincing the evidence to the contrary. It has become a religion in its own right.
On 11 Dec 2014, Steve D wrote:
No support from the 00z GFS models for widespread snow in southern England overnight or tomorrow. Cutting things fine here as winds swing round to the West if that darn High Pressure doesn't retreat to Greenland. Go Team Piers!
On 11 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote:
Yep, forecast not so good for us in s/w hertfordshire, however we still have 4/5 days for the winds to shift n/ne, so as always we have to wait and see.
On 11 Dec 2014, Asim (sub) wrote:
Last decent snow event in the london area was in 2010 dec.. No way that will top that this december. Thats even if we get any down here.. My friends are like where is this snow to me lol. everyone is looking forward to it... would be happy with anything now. lets watch and wait.
On 10 Dec 2014, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
Met Éireann have now satated snow in possible in northern and eastern parts on Friday. Cold air moving down will meet the front from the west. Snow amounts uncertain at the moment. Looks like Piers has got this one right again! Well done sir!
On 10 Dec 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Bitterly cold this morning in the strong W wind, 0˚C overnight, 1˚ at 7.30 rising to 2˚ max, frost on ground lasting until midday, quite sunny most of the time, very occasional rain showers, only once did I see a hint of white in the slight precipitation in the afternoon. 0˚ by 10pm and a few snow flakes on the ground. Largely a great day with a sharp wind, though not nearly as wild as yesterday, it seems the sting has gone from the depression, at least for us, wild stuff in the West notwithstanding, which is perhaps not surprising as we are now in a No Solar Factors (NSF) period. The question now is whether the Atlantic and Greenland Highs will join and squeeze the Low to a stop in the North Sea against the Scandinavian High, then producing snow. == tony (sub): I could say the same, but on the 5-8 Dec period Piers does say E/W boundary unsure, 100 miles E or W from 100 days ahead is neither here nore there at such long range.
On 10 Dec 2014, Michelle (South Yorkshire) wrote:
I'm with tony on this I too, I have been slightly dissapointed as the piers forcast for my region hasn't been on point up to now either. Really hope it gets back on track in the next few days as I've told the kids the snow is coming....
On 10 Dec 2014, Nick, Berks wrote:
Gerry, thanks for the steer to the interesting WUWT discussion re 2014 temperatures, hadn't seen that. I think Bob Tisdale overanalyzes a bit but all good fun. Is it too much to hope that in another five years or so we might be closer to some sort of consensus?
On 10 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Irish weather online fb just posted, that they are keeping their eye on a low chance of wet snow tomorrow, is it sneaking in to the forecast now.. maybe promising..
On 10 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Yyyyyyyesssssss! Houston...we have made contact with intelligent life! At long last we can move forward instead of backward in our understanding of our world. It's cost a small fortune to prove but hey, I'm not complaining, because the outcome is so positive.... look! >> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30414519 << The Electric Universe people have been telling us this for decades. Vindicated yet again....respect goes out to Wal Thornhill...
On 10 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Yes Bob, I forgot to mention the focussing effect at full moon of any inbound CMEs. I don't know about other countries but the UK aurora watchers have a hard time due to the amounts of cloud we have to cope with. We get a beautiful full moon, clear skies and crisp frosts. A CME hits us and everything flippin well clouds over and we miss the aurora...time after time..very frustrating! ....... and then there's the current sheets! So important in understanding how it all works up there... The sun's heliospheric one .... >> http://www.plasma-universe.com/index.php/Heliospheric_current_sheet << ..and the earth has it's own.. >> http://bit.ly/1BaCpxV << Everything connected to everything else.....brilliant!
On 10 Dec 2014, ian wood wrote:
thanks russ
I did find some research on the moons phase suggesting more precipitation after new and full moon, which is what I was trying to verify from your comment.
I just realised I can see coronal holes on solarham, which is interesting after reading comments about these. something else to watch and observe effects. am I right in thinking that the big coronal hole(top left) will be direct facing in 3 or 4 days?
On 10 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Btw I wasn't referring to anyone's comments on here, it was from a TV interview I watched this a.m where they were reporting whilst chuckling about the name weather bomb and I'm thinking who cares what it's called it's all cause and effect real weather affecting real people! At least the guy in the end did note it was having some serious affects all jokes aside, as I was glaring at the tv thinking wouldn't be so funny if you was out driving in those conditions lol!
On 10 Dec 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Southern Trains site has weather warnings up for tomorrow and Friday. Of course they say nothing of any snow but I would assume they follow the sheep and buy from the Met. Warnings for wind and rain. Earlier comment regarding temps for 2014 - yes, it was the sea surface temp in the northern Pacific that has lifted the temps for the year. Lots of info on WUWT and the usual accurate and pithy comment that the truth about the cause - a weather event that wasn't predicted (?) - won't appear in the legacy media until the damage of 'hottest evah' has been done and nobody's looking. In a responsible society the likes of NOAA etc who understand full well what has happened wouldn't stay silent and let the green blob spew forth warmist rubbish. Lots of foot shuffling and navel agazing and 'we aren't certain yet until the report is in' etc.
On 10 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Windy ole night with it gusting up again around midnight sky box went all funky so turned it off, again 6 a.m sounded pretty gusty temp. dropped quickly to 4 deg. Overnight. Has been windy all day with gusts and ( sleety at times ) rain and max temp briefly 7 but felt so cold with the wind, 4 deg. Now @ 20.00 pm 2000 homes without power I believe I heard on the west coast and travel disruption, they can chuckle about the terminology of "weather bomb" all they like and say it's overstated but this recent and short range by some seen weather has caused disruption ( unless I misunderstood and everyone's having a mild start to winter!-)
On 10 Dec 2014, tony (sub) wrote:
danny piers is good at what he does but i believe in my opinion that so far this months forecast is off the mark over most regions .i am a 30 d subber and looking back at what i have since the 5th my region has been wrong ........today was blue skys all over and no mention of that in forecast ,,,ill give credit where its due but i do believe that some people on here actually give too much when its not due , i hope this gets published ,its not a knocking session just a look on the other side .everyone is quick at knocking the meto and i agree they are not good especially with there millions they have but as i pay a sub i believe that i have a right to an opinion and im sorry to say im very dissapointed so far with the forecast for this month ...
On 10 Dec 2014, BLACK PEARL wrote:
Al this climate hype with coming UN meeting
Then these nutters do this
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30422994
Now I have an inkling to what it must have been like for those opposing Hitler on his rise to power.
What can people do to oppose this madness
On 10 Dec 2014, Brandon wrote:
Steve I hope your right, even tho I have no doubt in piers forecast whatsoever I cannot see any snow precipitations in the south of England whatsoever the models are wayyyy too mild for this with temps going from highs of 11/10 back down to 7 (which is not cold enough) then back up to 11 it's like its cold one day then mild then cold then mild I can't see any snow in the next week as this pattern will continue like it has been for the past week or so now :) (with rain)
On 10 Dec 2014, Steve D wrote:
Very important forecast on BBC London news; Yellow warning of Gales for SE England tomorrow night with nothing but rain across our region. No snow whatsoever. Can the Met Office still be wrong just 24-36 hours out? They were in December 2010 so...
On 10 Dec 2014, BLACK PEARL wrote:
What do they say about Religion & Politics
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30408022
One belief system supporting another
BOTH without any factual basis
Absolutely disgusting
On 10 Dec 2014, Bob Weber, N Mich USA subscriber wrote:
Piers, yesterday NOAA changed the internet addresses for ACE, GOES, and other satellite data, and they renamed each image. The new image folder is here at http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/ and select out your favorites from the list for your "Continuously Updating Solar related and Solar Wind data" section. Was the recent 25nT solar wind hit on the 6th-7th followed by the G1-class geomagnetic storm (Kp=5 for 6 hours, and Kp=4 for 18 hours Dec 6-8) enhanced by the full moon on Dec 6 and the north node on the 7th? Great auroras reported then too. ACE LE electrons and protons went up then, as did polar electrons and protons (NOAA-18). The solar wind is plasma mainly electrons and protons. "Magnetic" solar activity is plasma driven, with magnetic "fields" caused by motion of plasma constituents, mainly electrons and protons, ultimately continuously creating all space weather and electric weather, and all the wide variety of derivative effects defining the Electric Universe, Russ.
On 10 Dec 2014, Nick, Berks wrote:
Though we haven't had our share of this weeks wind yet (that is forecast to arrive early on Friday) the month is so far turning out to be 'interesting' at least in terms of rapid day to day changes (e.g., 11C at 11 pm yesterday!), though a local weather station at Bracknell shows the month to date mean max and min temperatures to be distinctly average. The mean CET anomaly for December is also average so far and if the MO/BBC 10 day outlook is followed it will be staying that way. Russ, re 2014 global temperatures, though there have been some significant 'cold spots' even the UAH satellite data are set to show 2014 to be the 3rd warmest in the 'satellite era', behind the EL Nino years of 1998 and 2010. I believe warmer sea surface temperatures have been a significant driver though I may be wrong on that. SSTs are typically more stable and less eye catching than land temperatures and of course account for 70% of the global area.
On 10 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
South Sutherland and East Ross .... More snow than forecast. /\ Source BBC Highland News. >> http://bit.ly/1DbOCag <<
On 10 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
cont'd ...... These links will explain much better than I can..... >> http://bit.ly/1yAaPqD << ... >> http://1.usa.gov/1iezHON << ... >> http://1.usa.gov/18LHspg << ... >> http://youtu.be/y8EE0p9kx5o <<
On 10 Dec 2014, Dawn in Orkney (subscriber) wrote:
Fantastic waves hitting the coasts of Orkney today along with plenty of thunder, lightning and hail. But, its not particularly unusual for Orkney to have winds at this speed or waves the height measured today. And well done to the lifeboat team who went out and rescued a decent sized fishing boat that sent out a mayday call when it,s wheelhouse windows were smashed by a wave and affected the electronics on the boat. All back and safe in harbour.
On 10 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
ian wood..... The moon has a very dramatic effect on our seas (tides) and storms. When the moon is on the opposite side of the earth to the sun, it's fully lit side faces us and we see the full moon, but over several days, this position charges up the surface of the moon electrically and causes dust to levitate and move around. Flashes have been seen over the years and astronomers put these flashes down to meteorite strikes, but recently NASA observed lightning, or at least electrical discharges in the rarified atmosphere of the moon. This seems to have a beneficial effect on the weather by bleedin off excess electrical energy from the earth, stabilising the weather. But when the moon and sun are on the same side of the earth, their gravitational and electrical effects are added and we see the biggest tides and the fiercest storms. Timing is crucial though due to the precise position of the moon relative to the earth's equator. cont'd
On 10 Dec 2014, steve (sub) wrote:
To answer Kevin (despite being a layman!) a low pressure system that deepens more than 24millibars in 24 hours is called a "bomb". Some time in the 80s the expression started to be used. It is als called "explosive cyclogenesis" and this particular low went down yesterday to 940 mb - lower than a hot-shot pilot doing a low pass in an F3! I think it is "up2 around 960-ish right now: still low enough to bend the needle on my grandpappy's old sea-going altimeter (barometer). Stay safe all of you!
On 10 Dec 2014, danny wrote:
To all Weatheraction readers and supporters club, have a guess what ?? You know that bloke Piers Corbyn,, his only gone and done it again. have a gander at this then,, BBc Scotland Live... 16:42: Waves 'phenomenal' say coastguards Storms in December aren't unusual, but it's the waves that mark this one out as a bit different.
Stornoway coastguards have described the sea state as phenomenal - a term they keep for only the most extreme conditions.
Off the west coast, the waves have been averaging between 14 and 15 metres (around 45 or 50ft) although some have been considerably higher. AND THIS 16:37: 144mph The National Trust, which cares for the archipelago of St Kilda, said a wind speed of 144mph was recorded on the group of islands earlier today. Just like you said Piers, very amazing man well done.. From Danny and his
lurcher dogs..
On 10 Dec 2014, Fred wrote:
GEM now doesn't support Piers outlook so no model is now on board. I posted a few days back I think this Azores High Pressure is one of those 'cut off' highs and it's going to keep the outlook of transient pM shots rather than full on severe blast as per Piers' public anouncement. For me now the detail is up in the air but not the overall synoptic pattern. That Azore High will remain in situ and not budge and any signs of amplification by models down the line is neither here nor there.
On 10 Dec 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:
Obs from East Berks. Has been sunny & mild today with top temp of 8 degs. I have to say I am now totally confused by all forecasters! The storm seemed to appear out of nowhere and has clearly caused huge amounts of disruption in Scotland and northern sections of the UK. I'd love to understand how it came about?
On 10 Dec 2014, ian wood wrote:
russ
I am very interested in your comments on full/new moons affecting weather(and how)hoping to learn more about that
the next new moon is dec 22nd
.did you mean some other event tomorrow?
On 10 Dec 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
The rain continued last night and the wind got up as I was woken by things banging about in the wind around 2am. Cloudless sky by morning and bright sunshine over London. City AM have picked up on the 'weather bomb' but had to laugh (as opposed to cry) when the MetO went for rain to come across but that they would update if it changes. Forecasting? What's that other than a complete mystery to them. We are talking about events on Friday and it is Wednesday. True to form the warning will come after the first inch of snow has landed. Many years ago - so long it was before global warming was invented - I was van driving for a living and was up in London heading home in the late afternoon. Listening to the old LBC the snow that was currently falling in town would soon turn to rain. No. Not even after 4 inches of snow did it turn to rain. I have my company Christmas bash on Friday evening and won't go if it snows as the trains might shut down. At least I am aware of the risk.
On 10 Dec 2014, Steve D wrote:
Sorry Sue I stand corrected. My knowledge of geography is about as good as my singing voice! 75mph gusts now being recorded on the west coast of Ireland (Republic!) and Scotland...or is that France? ;-)
On 10 Dec 2014, Sue (Dublin) wrote:
Steve D, just for the record Malin in Head, is located on the Inishowen Peninsula, County Donegal, which is the Republic of Ireland not Northern Ireland.
http://m.independent.ie/irish-news/news/eleven-schoolchildren-escape-injury-when-minibus-strikes-falling-tree-30815734.html
Cold here but beautiful blue sky and 6c.
On 10 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
like the way meto issue a 'be prepared warning on wed 10th ie while its happening lol http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30407295
On 10 Dec 2014, Barbara wrote:
North coast NI, currently 4c with WSW wind of 65km/h and gust of 93km/h, at least the sleet/snow/rain showers have eased at the moment, feeling really cool though.
On 10 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Forgot those two main characters Phil Jones and Michael Mann = Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee! Or is that Tweakle Dumb and Tweakle Dumber??
On 10 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
I've just made a connection between the BBC science department and Lewis Carroll.... Harrabin = The Red Queen.... Shukman = The Mad Hatter.... McGrath = March Hare.... Amos = Caterpillar.... etc!
On 10 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
I thought it was a little strange that Piers was forecasting such a large amount of precipitation, snow or rain, shortly after passing through the full moon. A change to calm frosty nights yes but precipitating it down I just couldn't see happening. Now the new moon is tomorrow the 11th of December and that waves a big red flag at this time of year. Bang on cue, the Scott's get a hefty storm. But from Austria all the way down to Turkey, ice storms abound, affecting hundreds of thousands of people, and that's not including the US and Asia. How the so called 'scientists' at the BBC can sit there and tell the British public that the world is heading for it's warmest year beggars belief, and if they were to tell their fairy stories in a court of law, they would be held in contempt of court and jailed! Mr Shukman, Mr Harrabin, are you listening?? Reality check! >> http://bbc.in/1D8NXX9 << vs >> http://bit.ly/1B6LbwX <<...
On 10 Dec 2014, Steve James ( 90 day sub) wrote:
MO and BBC reporting winds and rain during winter !!!..and some Western Isles having no power. Some snow and ice and low pressure systems too. Amazing who'd have though a West Coast Temperate Climate would have such things in Winter !!
I find ALL forecasts coming up more than a little short to date in their specifics....again. Time will tell.
On 10 Dec 2014, Fred wrote:
GEM maintains the Piers outlook. It takes second bite but low pressure in North Sea sinks directly south bringing bitter NE'lies and High Pressure builds in Scandinavia leading to Easterlies. It does take to about 19th for that to complete its run. I think Piers will admit that his forecast period as publicly released is only a full success if it more or less follows that scenario. Folks have a look on the meteociel site and select GEM and have a look at the run, you will then see what Piers is envisaging. Unfortunately no other model supports this....is it a red herring or is it a 'yet'?
On 10 Dec 2014, Kevin Harrow wrote:
Can anyone tell me when the expression” weather bomb” came into being? I am in my 60’s and I can honestly say that I have never heard it used before. Is it a well used piece of Met Office technical jargon that until now has only been used between consenting MO weather experts or is it just a gimmick dreamed up by the MO PR team to gain some sort of approval from the media? I fear that it just sounds like b***ks to me.but I could be wrong.
On 10 Dec 2014, Ben Askew wrote:
Been following this website for some time and also taking an interest in the GFS model. The model has been very good in indicating the oscillation between mild and cold across the UK which has been evident of late and also gave a very good indication around a week ago re the deep low which has now developed to the north of Scotland.Thus far there has been little disruption and the weather very much in the bounds of normal December weather. Hence, it would appear the hysterical cries of snow chaos have been unfounded and short term (following three days)tv forecasts have been spot on. It will now be interesting to see how the next few days develop where there are likely to be very marked differences in weather around the UK. Keep up the good quality of debate on this forum. Ben
On 10 Dec 2014, Steve D wrote:
Winds just gusted to 76mph in Northern Ireland (Malin Head). I know what you mean about last night's gusts Danny. I had to pop out to get some essentials about 7pm and had to lean into the wind which nearly took my breath away! 17,000 without power in the Western Isles now apparently.
On 10 Dec 2014, danny wrote:
Refering to Tuesday the 9th Dec between 9-11pm the wind down here in East Sussex got very high, a friend told me that he was walking up a country lane that passed over a railway bridge
and the wind nearly blew him down, he said it frightened him. If this is just the start of the winds and snow that Piers has forecast then be safe everyone. Just to add my friend is a big built man and for him to say it frightened him, well he is not the type to say that he was frightened, believe me..
On 10 Dec 2014, Steve D (Moderator) wrote:
Bbc Meto sticking to their guns about the southerly tracking low overnight Thursday into Friday will be rain not snow over southern parts.
On 10 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
imo long range is about forecasting events or non events some time from now. So in this case a major event was forecast which has happened but how that works out in any postcode is for the short range forecasters. WA prob can give a general view but without the national resource backing of £100s of millions [and a staff gym!! :) ]like what Meto gets i'd be surprised if it went too much detail or constant running commentary. So from a planning perspective if you had planned to sail round scotland during this window you would have been warned and thus prepared with a back up plan. Here at my location so far the precipitation mainly fell as rain rather than snow but we had the cold the and the winds.
On 10 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote:
If you look at the forecast folks, which is shown at the top of the page as a free weather warning, you will see that we need n/ne winds for the forecast to come to pass, and models do flip on a regular basis, plus the forecast is always +/- a few days.
Met office and models have NO SKILL more than 3 days out
On 10 Dec 2014, Lorraine Lister (sub) NZ wrote:
Plenty of rain across the whole of NZ today, its still moving up the North Island with some thunderstorms likely. Yesterday it was a very warm muggy day here - 24 degrees, dropped to about 18 today with the rain. We are grateful for the rain in this region following a very dry spring.
On 09 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
"The RNLI said some of those involved in maritime activities have dubbed Wednesday "Black Wednesday" because of the severity of the conditions expected." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-30393614
On 09 Dec 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:
OBS from East Berks. Overnight low of 1 deg over Monday night and currently 12 degs at 11.15pm on Tuesday night. Walked home from work do absurdly over-dressed in hat, scarf, gloves etc as I had set out this morning! It is very windy, although I think we are getting off lightly here in the south. Where did this storm and high temps come from?! Any more thoughts on the level of certainty for the middle column of the mid-December forecast?
On 09 Dec 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
A day of changes on The Downs and in London. A frosty start with icy pavements on the way to the station. Cold waiting for the connection at Purley. Lots of sun but during the course of the day the cloud moved in and it was looking quite grey to the south-east. Dry going to the station for home but raining by journey's end. Light rain but a sudden gusty spell on the walk home. Still light rain at 11pm. I disagree with Ian that it is not possible to have snow here. If there is a clear end to the day and into the evening the ground surface will chill enough for it to settle. Guess that why settled snow often appears overnight. Lovely parody in a Kazakh newspaper article warning of blizzards temps of -30C to -35C - the picture to illustrate this is a mother and young child strolling through a snowy wood LOL. At what temp does uncovered flesh start to freeze as they have no face covering. It is not actually snowing let alone a blizzard.
On 09 Dec 2014, Richard Bruce wrote:
I have just looked at the Met Office pressure charts on Tuesday evening and I think a sting in the tail is developing for the weekend. They now show a secondary low coming south over the UK. If it does deepen. it will pull down cold unstable northerly winds. Is this the joker in the pack which could produce snow?
On 09 Dec 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, overcast, strong SW wind, light rain off & on, occasional heavy bursts. Temps did actually reach 9˚ as the wind increased in the afternoon, reaching its gale force max by around 4pm, after which it began to quieten down to an almost still evening with a few clouds & lots of stars visible, 2˚ again by 10pm. MO yellow wind warning for tomorrow & Thursday, yellow snow warning for Friday further south.
On 09 Dec 2014, William Smith wrote:
Hi guys.
Is Wiltshire, particularly Salisbury Plain, likely to see very nasty conditions as per the forecast, i.e. deep snow, blizzards and stormy conditions?
I am just wondering as my father is on exercise with the Royal Artillery, and is concerned as MetO forecasts state mild and wet, and they may be caught out on exercise due to being totally unprepared for what may come to fruition.
Also, my Mother informed me that a few of the very frail and elderly residents who live around here on the outskirts of the Plain, are becoming very worried and frantic over the warnings given and the MetO forecast of 'mild'.
On 09 Dec 2014, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
Mild and wet this morning with temperatures at 11 degrees. Breezy with a clear sky and temperatures now down to 5. Awaiting the rest of the week!
On 09 Dec 2014, Henk wrote:
Hey everyone,
Check out the weather cards for end december (Christmas) till mid january 2015. Spectaculaire change in current weather pattern. Lots of snow and cold in the pictures for the whole month of january.
Merry xmas
Henk
On 09 Dec 2014, Aistair wrote:
I've just watched the weather web video and it appears they are saying more or less the same as the Met, at least for the East Yorkshire region. they are saying...some snow this weekend but probably only on the hills, Keating even goes on to say that, it could be mild by next weekend and then up to Christmas with a south westerly flow.
On the BBC Look North program this evening, they give very windy but no snow on Friday for our region.
Just what are the met and weather web not seeing, is it simply the fact that the models of which they rely so heavily upon, are playing catch up once again?
Given Piers accuracy so far, I would back him against the others and I certainly hope that his current forecast is proven to be correct if only to shut up those self righteous bunch at the BBC and the Met.
On 09 Dec 2014, Ian wrote:
0 this morning and now 9 degrees - wet and mild here in Surrey. Will be flabbergasted to see any snow - ground sodden and very soft so, if a fall does arrive, it will struggle to lie and certainly not affect roads. One has to remember that a period of prolonged cold tends to proceed binding snow of any quantity (at least at lower elevations).
On 09 Dec 2014, Fred wrote:
re previous message, its GEM model not JMA that is very interesting re Piers' outlook
On 09 Dec 2014, Brandon wrote:
Maria, that really intrigues me I couldn't imagine snow like that I have heard stories passed onto me haha I cant wait! Hopefully I will experience some rare winters like what you explained, Lol david thanks for that my fingers are so crossed looks like some accumulations of snow around midnight into the early hours on Friday the thing is I break up for work on holiday and my shift starts at 6am now breaking up for work on Thursday in this case sounds like a christmas treat lol my workplace can't deal with snow haha
On 09 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote:
For the forecast to work , at least for the south and east, is the wind to turn north/ne
On 09 Dec 2014, Shaun (Wales) wrote:
Respect to you Piers, really putting your money where your mouth with this weather warning. Hope this comes off, not just because I love snow and bad weather but because It will be nice to see you smash the MO again with a red warning where they totally get it wrong again like you did a few years back.
Think it was 2 winters back you gave Wales a red snow warning, MO had nothing a week out, 5 days became yellow warning, 2 days became an amber warning until finally 12 hours before it became a red for them, while you nailed it a month ahead. I had an awesome trek in that snow, still watch the video of me in waist deep snow.
Hoping for a repeat
On 09 Dec 2014, Fred wrote:
This is to the wire. GEM model brings real interest with northerly returning quickly/ never really going away as pressure drops South. others all blast through for a westerly. This would be a monumental turnaround but there is still time....just!
On 09 Dec 2014, Fred wrote:
This is to the wire. JMA model brings real interest with northerly returning quickly/ never really going away as pressure drops South. others all blast through for a westerly. This would be a monumental turnaround but there is still time....just!
On 09 Dec 2014, jenny wrote:
Hi all, was just wondering if the east mids was going to be getting the snow? Midlands never really gets mentioned, many thanks.
On 09 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Some squally showers passing through most of the day on and off, the wind increased and decreased, wind picked up a bit more again before 5pm with again light drizzles of rain now @ 18.46 pm the wind is making it feel cooler than the 11 deg. It's showing..
On 09 Dec 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
Brandon, I am opposite to you re the snow. There have been sudden very heavy blizzards in the past when I remember there suddenly being snow almost as high as eaves in some areas and there had to be helicopter drops of food for animals and people. Several people died through suddenly being stranded in cars and trying to walk home and I am talking drifts so high that you couldn`t see the hedges. If you stand on a drift then you suddenly sink right down. 6 inches of snow is ok but we are talking several feet and not everyone is fit and able to cope. Tbh I am dreading it
On 09 Dec 2014, Dave in Dorset wrote:
Brandon...this might answer answer your question. Let the page load up and the animation will run. http://www.myweather2.com/synop/player.aspx?synop=2 Yesterday no snow in the south.....today Voilà! Looks like the models are FINALLY catching up with Piers.
On 09 Dec 2014, Steve D (Moderator) wrote:
Nice one Rosebud. Full link is here http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php I strongly recommend that subscribers and maybe even Piers himself looks at the video and then compares it to the December forecast ;-)
On 09 Dec 2014, Brandon wrote:
Piers your a legend for issuing that for free anyone else like the bbc and met would rather want people to suffer quick question if it's okay with piers piers you say snow in parts of North england london and South East of that too im from portsmouth in the far south are we in for disruptive snow too?? I hope so now!! And will we get that feet of snow down here if so I haven't been this excited since January 2011 when we had all that snow fingers crossed I hope I can get a confirm for the South to get this snow too :D thanks piers!
On 09 Dec 2014, Rosebud wrote:
Simon Keeling at Weatherwevb.tv has spotted the sting in the tail....
On 09 Dec 2014, Steve D (Moderator) wrote:
66mph gust just recorded on east coast of Scotland according to http://xcweather.co.uk. Saw an article on Twitter earlier from the Meto describing this event as a weatherbomb in which a storm rapidly intensifies along the track and exit of the Jet Stream. Little do they know that solar factors will add extra turbo boost to an already dangerous beast of a storm which will spawn a baby one on Friday for us Southerners...
On 09 Dec 2014, Steve D (Moderator) wrote:
Netweather.tv 10 day forecast has a ZERO PERCENT chance of snow for my corner of Essex over the forthcoming days. If I could take a screenshot, nail it to the Netweather offices then take a photograph when the snow arrives I literally would!
On 09 Dec 2014, Steve D (Moderator) wrote:
Have a look...latest GFS 6z output showing snow stretching across all of Southern England (albeit briefly) at 3pm & 6pm Friday afternoon. Gee, are the £97m supercomputers finally spotting what Piers predicted MONTHS AGO but only THREE DAYS OUT?!? Someone hold me back...! ;-)
On 09 Dec 2014, Matt (Sub) wrote:
@Ian I love that site
On 09 Dec 2014, JohnE wrote:
Well Piers has certainly nailed his colours to the mast on this one hasn't he with a Top Red public warning for later this week. I am now an OAP and the cost of the forecast is a little beyond my current means but I visit this site at least once a day for updates and to read the comments, if only to glean the sort of information that has now been made public.
Thank you Piers
On 09 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Ok! So Fox News editors have that same inate ability that the BBC have, of posting two articles, side by side, on the same page, but over a week apart in realtime. So ignore the Arizona quake....old news! Piers. A question for you sir. When a quake is within your R4/5 period, is the position of the earth and any solar activity crucial in alignment terms? For instance, the southern hemisphere is approaching its summer solstice and the sun has had a huge coronal hole across its south polar region (I assume the images we see are corrected so we see true solar north at the top?). Is this a direct correlation between the southern hemispheres of both bodies, i.e. would a huge coronal hole in the sun's northern hemisphere, trigger quakes in the earth's northern hemisphere, if the earth's northern hemisphere was pointing sunward as it would be near our summer equinox?
On 09 Dec 2014, Ian wrote:
Piers and WA, you could email your December forecast to No.10
https://email.number10.gov.uk/
Stuff the BBC Met O!
On 09 Dec 2014, ian wood wrote:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-9.24,65.71,1024
On 09 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland ) wrote:
*wind warning with regards to the orange and yellow status!
On 09 Dec 2014, Fred wrote:
So we approach the cross roads, metO forecasting +9c and even +10c for the south this week, westerly winds and even talk of the main trough moving 'north'? Snow only for Scotland and it will 'feel cold' are their words.
Models are showing something more wintry that 10c for the south but push everything through east so the pattern flattens by weekend.
Piers publicly releases mid Dec forecast snippet today demonstrating he maintains his confidence in his outlook.
Well for starters +5c for Scotland and +9c down SE looks too mild for sure, however I estimate that models will have to shift by tomorrow evening to show Piers outlook if it is correct. Late Nov and early Dec they did to follow Piers' pattern....round 3 is on the doorstep.
On 09 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Met Eireann have an Orange warning up for Donegal and other counties, Yellow here in Leinster and surrounding, take care out there folks! Piers hats off to you for making that part of your forecast free I'm sure many will appreciate that information ;-)
On 09 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
looking back at what the models were saying for dec on gav vids the cfs was basically saying the same pattern as november ie much milder than average see the vid November 2014 Month Ahead Forecast about 9.10 into the vid.. For a real laugh the 3 month view from october had uk as mild and wet and above av temps. The worst model for warming with no cold was the Meto one lol. see the vid Second Winter 14-15 Seasonal Model Round-Up (26/10/14) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tu3IRQYurVk Gav does say he thinks all the models are biased to warming. Sadly its these models the officials base their decisions on. All those models with several hundred millions spent on them. Funnily one of the models he reviews that come close to the current situation is human based analogue analysis not computer generated model based lol. Thanks to gav for doing the vids and keeping an archive.
On 09 Dec 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
7.50am. The whole sky is an even deep deep pink. 2.3 degrees, 90% humidity, 1032 mb pressure. Sky looks very foreboding.
On 09 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
bbc paper view article seems to take a snooty view of the 'weather bomb' and suggests people go read a climate change article although it did add " iit snowed this week in Weymouth and Dorchester, cutting off power for 1,500 residents." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-30389684
On 09 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote:
A dramatic public warning issued by Mr Corbyn, i hope for his credibility it comes to pass. Down here in gods own county of Hertfordshire, things never get too severe, its the North that gets the worst, however, due to highly congested roads 10mm of snow can cause grid lock.
I remember in 2010 Mr Corbyn issued a warning in December, snow chaos and cold duly arrived, so GAME ON!
On 08 Dec 2014, Sue H (N.Ireland) dec sub wrote:
We had sleet showers on sunday which had frozen to the cars by 8pm. Monday morning although we had no lying snow around us, just 5 mins drive up the road there was a small covering of snow and several cars passed me with a good couple of centimetres on them. The snow was still there in places at 3pm. Temps never got over 5 deg all day, even in the sun. Mournes had a nice covering of snow. NOT looking forward to this storm. We could well be in the firing line over here, but I'm glad I don't live on the coast. Its gonna be windy!
On 08 Dec 2014, Russ in/at/of/around Derbyshire wrote:
Plus the US >> http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2014/11/30/breaking-magnitude-47-earthquake-shakes-arizona/ << Think 'warming lava' folks!
On 08 Dec 2014, Russ in/at/of/around Derbyshire wrote:
A WeatherAction R5 period and a direct hit from a quake.... >> http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2014/12/07/breaking-magnitude-67-earthquake-rocks-central-america/ << .... Nice one Piers!
On 08 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
justin-relax. You may not be aware the co2ers are trying to paint wa as nothing more than a gamble, a pin the tail on the donkey. This has been going on for a while. One guy even said they had done research on wa to prove it. When i asked to see the research they vanished. However the evidence is wa is not a random gamble but does have an edge sufficient for bookies to stop taking bets on it unlike the forecasts from other sources. So there is a bit of history behind the 'WA is a gamble' narrative which they throw in the hope their mud sticks.
On 08 Dec 2014, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
Dramatic changes in models over the last day or so. This storm could cause some trouble in this part of the world!
On 08 Dec 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
-1˚C overnight, frosty for most of the day even though temps rose to 3˚ around the middle of the day. Stiff WNW breeze all day, keen & cold, mostly sunny though, with rain showers in between but no snow. Freezing hard again tonight, -1˚ by 9.30pm. == MO is saying 7˚ tomorrow, against subscribers' expectations. But I agree with Russ that predicting this change to colder and stormy weather from so far ahead involves a skill that most other forecasters can only dream of. I'm not necessarily looking forward to the coming storm, I put the side braces into our big polytunnel today in case of possible huge amounts of snow, having lost it once in Dec 2010 is enough! == My ha'pworth on misunderstandings: they can often arise from hasty & inaccurate reading/expression, done it myself. Better go do something else for five minutes before shooting first/back :-)
On 08 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Most southern part of the country - Drielandenpunt or Three Countries Point in Vaals, Limburg province - got several cms of snow which actually stayed put. http://bit.ly/1zGr47y Our region, in the upper North, had numerous showers of wet snow, hail, sleet and rain and a crazy wind coming from every direction. The stove was nearly impossible to keep lit with several 'back blasts' filling the annex with soot and smoke due to the wind howling down the flue. It finally calmed down around 15:00 hrs at which point the stove had gone through two loads of kindling which usually last the whole day. Very vexing, to say the least. Fortunately we have plenty of wood as we paid heed to WA's warnings ;-)
On 08 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
I see from a photo Piers has posted that snow has indeed been settling on the infamous Drumochter Pass. Also Traffic Scotland has traffic cam shots of several places now having snow covered grass verges, including the A82 at Altnafeadh plus the Slochd summit on the A9. Not deep but we're getting there. I agree with other posters comments, that for Piers to hit a small window, from 100 days ahead, with a prediction of a large, and rapid, decrease in temperature, with snow and high winds, is extraordinary compared to any other weather forcaster. It's not deep snow but that was only one criteria out of about 6 for this period. Not flippin bad by any account!
On 08 Dec 2014, Steve Devine (sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
Two things. Firstly, I am a proud to be a long-term Moderator for this website and do not appreciate seeing any infighting or bickering. This is a fully defended website for people to exchange opinions and reflect on the success or failure of Piers' work, this is not a Netweather-esque site for personal gripes. Please play nicely or such comments will be blocked. Secondly, apparently there are 50ft swells heading for the west coasts of N Ireland and Scotland this coming Thursday morning, that isn't even taking into account the solar flares hitting our atmosphere on Wednesday. Those waves could be even higher, plus blizzard conditions hitting Scotland in earnest tomorrow. Winds never really die down from tomorrow afternoon until the weekend and this storm should sink even further south if solar and lunar influences come to bear fruit.
On 08 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Black ice this morning, see a car abandoned in the hedge looking a little worse for wear :-/ frost and ice cleared, max. 5 deg. was the kind of day where you feel like your just chilled to the bone, 2 deg. now at 17.38 feels colder, nice though :-) Sue me too and I think I am just obsessed with weather totally!-)
On 08 Dec 2014, Justin (occasional sub) wrote:
richard [subs east mids] wrote: "Remember they say what WA is doing is 'impossible' and their stooges try to smear WA as hype bandits conning people with random chance bets".
I'm guessing this last comment may be referring to me based on your previous responses to what I did not say! Let me be very clear, I'm not an MO "stooge" nor am I a fan of the MO as they have been doing the same thing for years hence my looking around for a more reliable forecaster to which I say that Piers (hands down) has the edge over the MO on longrange forecasting! Nor am I a "troll" I am just a man who pays close attention to weather in winter as the cold and damp affect me greatly. It really matters to me when it is WRONG whoever's forecast I put my faith in!! Please stop embellishing my comments with your broken record ranting and rather respond to what I said. I did not single out any 1 forecaster but rather made an observation that Whoever does a forecast it is still a gamble, with varying odds I accep
On 08 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote:
GFS seeing some snow in the south east on friday morning
On 08 Dec 2014, Nigella wrote:
Is there is still a high level of certainty for the middle column of page two of the WA forecast for mid-December?
On 08 Dec 2014, Shaun (Wales) wrote:
some sleet, snow and severe hail here today In Merthyr South Wales.
After a warmer day yesterday compared to lately, it must have turned throughout the night and as we had some rain it was an ice rink out there for the second time this week.
A real mix of blue sky and sunshine, sleet, heavy snow showers that stuck temporarily before the sun re-appeared and as I said, a wicked bout of hail too
On 08 Dec 2014, phil benson wrote:
Piers. Still appear to be some doubters out there. I think providing a copy of the 1st to 8th December forecast on your website should silence them all. Cold and snowy in Blaenau.
On 08 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
From Police on twitter- NW Motorway Police @NWmwaypolice
The weather has been causing all sorts of issues with ice, sleet, hail and heavy rain in places. Take care if travelling this morning....just more documentation lest people try to say nothing happened and its was just press fantasy.
On 08 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
"The Met Office is telling people in North Wales, Northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland to expect severe gales with gusts of around 70 mph and frequent wintry showers." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11279156/Disruption-expected-as-winter-storms-bring-snow-ice-and-wind.html
On 08 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
more 'hysteria' lol- "Britain's colder than Moscow! Parts of Britain covered in a blanket of snow as temperatures plummet to -3C prompting forecasters to issue ice weather warnings"
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2864173/Here-comes-cold-snap-Britain-wakes-widespread-frost-temperatures-plummet-3C-prompting-forecasters-issue-snow-ice-weather-warnings.html#ixzz3LJpQsuIY
On 08 Dec 2014, Nick, Berks wrote:
@Richard I wouldn't get so excited about the Independent article. For the headline they've done what the likes of the Express often do, juxtaposed a selected part of a throwaway quote (across the tops of the Scottish mountains it will be pretty horrendous,” a spokesperson told the Evening Standard.) with a more general statement about weather warnings across 'much' of the UK to make the whole thing sound much worse than it is, and what the MO have actually said. It's click bait. They've pulled the story from another Lebedev paper, the Evening Standard, which relies on attracting peoples attention as they enter tube stations. The Express pulls sensationalist stuff like that all the time. The Independent used to be a decent paper.
On 08 Dec 2014, Asim ( sub) wrote:
Still waiting for fun & games down here in the south east. Nothing yet.
On 08 Dec 2014, Josh wrote:
A few forecasters talking about a potential big SSW around the end of december?? Is there anyone that could perhaps back them up??
On 08 Dec 2014, JohnE wrote:
Its winter.
Put the outside Christmas lights up yesterday and it was bitterly cold in South Lancs. Frequent hail showers and frozen sleet on the cars this morning. Today we have had a number of heavy showers passing through, mixture of hail and sleet with lots of gusts of a cold wind. Long way to go though yet folks and I reckon that we are in for some heavy going over the coming weeks
On 08 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
A comment on Ice Age Now is a great explanation of the worth, or should I say worthlessness, of world average temperatures....... "Isn’t it amazing that at ~34 degrees north and located close to the Pacific Tokushima Prefecture is blanketed with heavy snow in the mountains while on the other side of the Pacific at ~34 degrees north and located close to the Pacific Los Angeles and California aren’t ?....How are “global average” anythings relevant ?" ......... Source: Ice Age Now ........
On 08 Dec 2014, Nigella - subscriber wrote:
Obs from East Berks. Well still a mixed bag here. Temps dropped quickly Sunday evening with clear skies, but by 11pm there was some cloud overhead & it rained overnight, with the lowest temp at 3 degs. However, bright & clear again this morning with sunshine and a current temp of 4.5degs. Short term forecasts don't seem to suggest anything too severe Midlands downwards for the time being.
On 08 Dec 2014, John Blakely wrote:
Forecasts on media outlets this morning suggest the wind is going to be the most disruptive this week, particularly across northern UK with huge waves on western coasts. Generally Atlantic seems to be in charge and hence no disruption re snow in South Wales thus far and also not particularly cold. Do you think we're on for this deep depression Piers? Thanks
On 08 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
and now a day before the event meto have upped their language....."The Met Office has issued weather warnings over "horrendous" conditions that are set to hit part of the UK as temperatures plummet bringing snow and ice."..http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-horrendous-conditions-expected-as-weather-warnings-issued-for-much-of-the-uk-9908928.html Remember they say what WA is doing is 'impossible' and their stooges try to smear WA as hype bandits conning people with random chance bets. So to forecast snow 100 days ahead within a time window as part of a documentated track record isn't skill? If Meto had done this they would be calling for an extra £100m to improve their skill further. How long will their egos block their minds and stop calling WA science as random chance? Even if the extent is not as forecast in metro logical terms forecasting such an event for the small land mass of uk is like Ulysses shooting an arrow thro the rings of the axe heads.
On 08 Dec 2014, Ian wrote:
Piers, I you are quite certain of the snow and travel chaos / national disruption that is coming to UK this week, then you could short circuit the BBC MetO by advising the Government's COBRA Emergency Committee. Just email No.10
On 08 Dec 2014, Fred wrote:
Models need to shift again to follow piers outlook at short range as after mid week we return to westerly regime and mild......can they change dramatically again at such short notice?.....they have twice already so lets see
On 08 Dec 2014, Saskia Steinhorst (sub. Netherlands) wrote:
Current temps 3,6C (2,7C at 10cm) with nearly -1C windchill. Hailed twice already this morning, overcast skies. Beautiful moon last two nights with a brilliant large halo around it.
@Paul - Yes, the concept is great! The batch rocket indeed is geared towards quick heating with a minimum of fuel and emissions for cooking, at least in the converted coal range. The driving force behind the experiments on the forum is Peter van den Berg who has and is further developing the Rocket Mass Heater concept by Ianto Evans. Here's a link to (yet again) a Dutch article, if you manage to translate that then you'll know a bit more about the man http://bit.ly/1wR5TlG and this site shows stoves based on his concepts http://bit.ly/1zEkK0o BTW, the forum also welcomes English speaking people. I will be careful with the top feeding, one of the reasons I want to eventually convert this. First I'll experiment with a little antique cast iron cooking range I still have, should be interesting ;-)
On 08 Dec 2014, Sue (Dublin) sub wrote:
Yes Maria I read that on Met Éireann also, "Very unsettled as Atlantic systems cross Ireland with potentially disruptive weather". They were committing themselves no further though-so we'ii just have to keep checking back.
National Weather Service in States keeping a close eye on this storm in Atlantic expecting seas of 17M now. The power of the Atlantic always has me in awe.
Sleet falling as I left for work this morning.
On 08 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote:
The middle of the month looks mighty interesting, especially if the winds swing N/NE. I sincerely hope that December is cold enough to stop 2014 being the warmest year EVAR!.( Even though we only have a few hundred years of data).
Here in gods own county of Hertfordshire, its cold but no sleet or snow yet, we wait with bated breath!
On 08 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Some sleety rain this evening temp 3 / 2 deg. 00.15 Interestingly Met Eiranne have changed the further outlook at the bottom of their national forecast, to keep in touch with their forecasts And warnings as there could be some potentially disruptive weather next week.
On 07 Dec 2014, Paddy (Aberdeen south, 130m elevation, sub) wrote:
Fresher & bright start, 2˚C at 7.30, noticeably colder W wind, glorious sunshine all day, 3˚ max, down to 0˚ by 10pm. MO yellow snow warning tomorrow & Tuesday, excluding our coastal strip, also yellow wind warning fro Wed & Thurs.
On 07 Dec 2014, Paul (Bedfordshire) subscriber wrote:
Meto snow/ice weather warning is as far south as Bristol now
On 07 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
currently everyone is forecasting snow disruption which means everyone will be wrong if it doesn't happen. If its warm the forecast precipitation will be rain instead of snow.
On 07 Dec 2014, Kris wrote:
Glad to have purchased full winter forecast again this year! Piers' forecasts never disappoint. Year in year out he predicts correctly and accurately months ahead yet the MO still poo-poo anything that differs from their own poor 'preditions'. Shame on them! Well done Piers and thank you.
On 07 Dec 2014, Richard Traut yearly sub Redcar wrote:
No snow here in the north east cold yes but if snow falls it wont last as mild air moves in quickly behind it tuesday ,certainly no disruption to transport and airports etc, so section one of the forecast 1-1 as it did turn colder 1-2 for section two ,as its not even further east in europe but one thing Piers gets right is the transition to cold as only a few days back the met/bbc never saw it coming ,the other thing is the biggish storm arriving weds that could be your travel disruption ect Piers
On 07 Dec 2014, Shaun (Wales) wrote:
Sleet and a very brief spell in Merthyr Tydfil Wales, a brief but heavy spell in Tredegar Wales also but all turned back to rain. Warmish day so was surprised to see it but it has turned back to cold again this evening, well... coldish
On 07 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Had a report Saturday evening that there had been snow falling in Halifax. There has been some snow falling in Scotland. >> http://trafficscotland.org/livetrafficcameras/ << But hardly any settling even at the summits of the A9 like Slochd for instance. It's so unreliable is snow or schnee as we like to call it. German you know...lovely word schnee! The typhoon Hagupit has been powered by the huge coronal hole on the sun. The hole hasn't been pointing exactly earthward yet but the solar wind from it is sort of 'sprayed outward' in a fan shape, so we are getting sprayed but by a weaker (less dense), outer edge of the holes output. It's been spewing solar wind now for about a week, so it's effect on our typhoon has been prolonged. If it had been pointing more directly at earth, the typhoon could have been apocalyptic.....
On 07 Dec 2014, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
Lots of heavy sleet showers today, turing to snow for a time but no accumulations yet. Temperatures down to 2 degrees and cold in the wind.
Met Éireann going for cold and wintry showers until Tuesday when temperatures rise and fall with just heavy rain. Then a return to normal westerly flow. They are predicting no snow at the moment! We shall see....
On 07 Dec 2014, Gerry N Downs 600ft 45d wrote:
Cloud came over yesterday evening so there was no moonlight and no frost to wake up to this morning. Much breezier than Saturday with cloud until noon. At around 2pm my sister rang and at the end of the call she commented that it was turning very dark to the north and there was a strong rainbow. She lives north of me and within 30 minutes the wind had whipped up and a squally shower passed over. I then worked outside until 7.30pm and had a bonfire going the whole time. The blustery wind at the start dropped completely and ite became clear skies. Moon was up by the time I finished and a chill in the air. Still, got my van wheels changed over to winter tyres. So let's see what we get up here this week.
On 07 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote:
Conventional forecasters going for very wintery conditions around next weekend and beyond, models showing fronts coming down from the north.
On 07 Dec 2014, Steve Devine (sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
Countryfile forecast a letdown for snow lovers. Only time, Mother Nature and Piers will tell! :-)
On 07 Dec 2014, Paul (Bedfordshire) subscriber wrote:
PS Sleet in Bedfordshire at about 2PM when I collected vegetables at the allotment. Piercing cold wind and stung in the face with the sleet so wouldn't surprise me if the snow hits south of Birmingham. Down to 2.6 here now
On 07 Dec 2014, Paul Bedfordshire (Subscriber) wrote:
I see the latest met office severe weather warning for snow and ice tonight now extends as far south as Birmingham. Quite a change from Friday when it didn;t even make Dumfries and Galloway. Piers 1 Meto nill methinks.
On 07 Dec 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) wrote:
Latest MoBeeb forecast suddenly shows snow showers tracking down the M4 tonight. All eyes on a crucial Countryfile forecast on BBC1 just after 7pm...
On 07 Dec 2014, richard [subs east mids] wrote:
justin- a 100% guarantee like meto forecasts? Or like the claim co2 is the cause of temperature? Thats what they imply with their demands for trillions to be 'bet' on it because they would say its not a bet but truth/fact. So its a bet if you buy WA sub but not if you bet trillions on co2? If people thought co2ism was a bet they wouldn't put any money on it. There is no 100% money back guarantee with co2 as cause. Meto have a bet mindset they are dice throwers which is why they only have one forecast. If meto had truth should they not be the richest people in the world from their bets on insider info? Unlike WA who did make money at the bookies until WA was so successful they stopped WA placing any bets. Has the same been said for meto? So not all forecasts have the same 'odds' of success. If the bookies stop taking bets the sun will come up in the east what does that tell you? That its no longer random chance?
On 07 Dec 2014, Ann (Wicklow) wrote:
Sunny day here. Feeling very cold though. Rain shower at 4pm. Have a really bad headache....blaming the geomagnetic storm! Ready for the snow if it gets this far.
On 07 Dec 2014, Justin wrote:
richard [subs east mids] wrote: "Maybe you should have done that before try to smear and suggest anyone who buys a sub is an idiot? You imply you are full of wisdom on the forecasts. If you had done any scientific work on them show it."
Perhaps you should re-read what I actually said as you have answered something you embellished onto my comment & not what i actually said. Looking over Piers homepage I can see it prob does not match my comment since Piers has constantly improved his homepage and gives plenty of info, charts & links to articles etc so altho he does have headlines and discounts he certainly puts out plenty of info. I didn't need to say who or what I was talking about as I trust most people still have some common sense left!
RIchard Brown...thanks for your comment, try subbing as I have done when needed! However, even with the best will in the world...a forecast is still laying down a bet otherwise they would come with a 100% guarantee! Eh?
On 07 Dec 2014, mark (Bolton) wrote:
Strange mix of weather here today, early quite mild yet damp then quickly clouded over and drizzle, then sleet then snow ( temp dropped several degrees).Then warmed up, cooled down warmed up.Now at 1700hrs cold again with rain. KEEP UP THE WORK Piers
On 07 Dec 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
Stephen and Brandon, there is a blue line on a chart in the 30 day sub that explains what might happen
On 07 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Cloud invaded and some showers passed through this afternoon with a mix of rain at times with slight hail and wind increased for a time, 4 deg. @ 16.49 but feeling more on the edge of freezing...
On 07 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
cont'd. Page 3...... Nothing mysterious, just massive amounts of moving electric charge, along with powerful magnetic fields! To answer Paul from the previous comments page re: cme warming lava. The standard theory say's that the flow of protons and electrons (seeing a pattern yet?), flowing into the earth's poles from a cme, is so weak that it couldn't possibly warm zillions of tons of lava. Don't think of electrons and protons Paul, just think of positive and negative electric charge, which moves around and when it moves through a medium such as copper or air or lava, it has a warming effect. I would search the Electric Universe / Thunderbolts site for info explaning the warming of lava. You'll notice that volcano's erupt far more often and more violently during upticks of solar activity. This info is good for the soul, anyones soul... >> http://amasci.com/miscon/whatis.html << plus >> http://amasci.com/miscon/eleca.html << You'll never think of electricity the same way again..
On 07 Dec 2014, Steve Devine (Sub) wrote:
Met Office phone app plumbing for sunny spells until Thursday with temps 5-8c. Absolute joke!
On 07 Dec 2014, Steve Devine (sub) Waltham Abbey wrote:
Sunny spells after a torrential downpour at 11am here in SW Essex. Temperatures dropped from 11c to 9c in a matter of minutes. Just glanced at the Netweather 10 day ahead forecast for my neck of the woods. It states ZERO percent chance of snow for what I'm sure will be the complete opposite in the forthcoming days. GFS 6z model has zero chance of snow south of Birmingham for the week ahead, hence the dodgy 10 day output which feeds from this source.
On 07 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
cont'd page 2..... If the voltage between the earth's upper atmosphere and ground is almost half a million volts, then imagine the voltage between the visible solar surface and it's corona. I read an article about a year ago which said that NASA would be sending a probe into the sun. Now that should cause a few science text books to be re-written. I like to think of solar flares being the sun's equivalent of lightning and it's associated sprites, here on earth. A build up of electric charge in one small area, caused by highly magnetised plasma swirling around in a complex magnetic dance. When the magnetic fields of two nearby zones of charged plasma align, the charge is released into the corona and onward into space. On earth we get a big white spark but on the sun the charge released takes with it charged gas molecules (plasma), and free electrons, and accelerates them toward the corona in the form of a 'coronal mass ejection. cont'd....
On 07 Dec 2014, Russ subs NE Derbyshire wrote:
Craig... Thanks for sharing that link showing the power that magnetism can have over a liquid. Brilliant! This is of course a very powerful field, in a very small experiment, using a very dense medium, but it beautifully shows just what can be achieved with a magnetic field. A vastly lower field is measured in near-earth space but is active over an ernormous area too. Critics always jump to the same conclusions about electric charge in space. They always associate it with electrons in the solar wind. A typical question would be, "The sun can't be driven by 'electricity'...where are all the electrons flowing into the sun?" This is because everyone is still brainwashed into believing that electricity is trillions of electrons moving through wires, which, apart from the solar wind, is said to be impossible in a vacuum (the 'no wires' analogy). cont'd...
On 07 Dec 2014, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
Status Yellow warning for snow and ice on Met Eiranne For Donegal Leitrim Mayo and Sligo...5 deg. Feels colder Sunny little cloud @ 12.03 here in the Midlands...
On 07 Dec 2014, danny wrote:
Good morning THEE MAINMAN, Just been reading the mail, looks
like you have scored another direct hit PREDICTED From over 3 MONTH,S out YES OVER 3 MONTH,S AGO, THIS MAN BY THE NAME OF MR PIERS CORBYN IS QUITE SIMPLY A GENIUS, AND I HOPE THE bbc met office are reading this YOU EEEVIL MURDER OF CROWS. Well done piers, all the best from Danny and his lurcher dogs
On 07 Dec 2014, danny wrote:
Good morning THEE MAINMAN, Just been reading the mail, looks
like you have scored another direct hit PREDICTED From over 3 MONTH,S out YES OVER 3 MONTH,S AGO, THIS MAN BY THE NAME OF MR PIERS CORBYN IS QUITE SIMPLY A GENIUS, AND I HOPE THE bbc met office are reading this YOU EEEVIL MURDER OF CROWS. Well done piers, all the best from Danny and his lurcher dogs
On 07 Dec 2014, Sue H (N.Ireland) dec sub wrote:
Sun 9.41am It is trying to snow. wet and sleety snowy mix. but at least it has started! yesterday evening coming home from work was 9 deg btw. Anybody able to explain what the colours actually mean on those charts on the main page? purples and blue?
On 07 Dec 2014, Brandon wrote:
Obviously I won't get an answer but what Stephen Parker has said charts have been showing southern England for snow around mid month but models are asaying mild as ever as far as I can see I can't wait for our first widespread event here in southern England soon as I see hints and snow showers forecasted by others that's when ill know to get piers forecast!
On 07 Dec 2014, Maria 45day sub somerset wrote:
I hope not stephen. Important to read the short term meto stuff and outside the WA box in conjunction with the important WA R factors. Definitely worth a toast to PC as far as accuracy and forewarning goes. Well done and spot on. That sub of mine is worth every single penny.
On 07 Dec 2014, east side wrote:
NO.
All this (small amount) of snow is nothing exceptional in Scotland and N England in early December, just Britain is a pathetic little island which is regularly brought to utter chaos, by what in Scandinavia/Russia would be just a light dusting of snow.
All it is, is a change in the direction of the JS to revert to what is a more NORMAL orientation from the very unusual JS south orientation which gave such a warm wet November.
People have short memories, and are easily manipulated by their constant obsession with their social media, in a dumbed down "smart phone generation".
The media, the parasites that run them and the public feed off each other.
The 'elf and safety, politicians & insurance jobsworths feed off the bits that fall off that table.
Aardman had it perfect.
"DO SOMETHING GROMIT",
..and while the aircraft stay grounded (for 1" of snow), & the kids don't go to school, the politicians chunter into action with more "pronouncements".
On 07 Dec 2014, stephen parker ( sub ) wrote:
We were also told that we would be getting it in southern britain, is this still the case?
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