On 18 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C overnight, 8˚ at 7.30, another bright and breezy day in this hot and cold week, max temp 20˚ but feeling pretty cool in the S - SE’ly wind if it wasn’t for moving/working, 10˚ by 9.30pm. == Thanks for the update on the weather girl, Maria :-) Yes, everything late and slow, paying attention to Piers made sure I didn’t start anything too early, esp sensitive things like cucumbers, courgettes are a bit hardier.
On 17 May 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Have seen 2 pairs of swallows here the last two days not as many in the area and surrounding as usual though thats for sure. Lots of flowers on the H.chestnut trees in and around this year and finally our asparagus has returned 😋 also lots of lettuce leaves to chomp through atm yum & our rhubarb tastes great this year finally recovering from when I moved it 2 years ago, love eating healthy out of the garden just have to be more patient as it seems slower these days with lil growth spurts here n there. Seriously need to sort our flower beds and grow lots more for the bees over the next few years as Bees are def. low count here, grass is looking better the last week. The tiny one loving getting outside more with us all, great time of year, and yeah i'm rambling as we have moved baby from crib to cot and first week of evenings off as she is sleeping a wee bit longer after 16 weeks 👍sat here after a few nights rest thinking of setting up lights outside so I can work haha!Ki
On 17 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, overcast until about 9 then brightening up into another glorious day, albeit milky at times rather than clear bright sun, cold wind starting as a NW’ly and gradually moving into the NE & the S, hot sun & cold wind like Russ & Gerry are reporting, it’s a strange kind of spring, no greenfinches and very few goldfinches, the latter tend to come in when our abundant forget-me-not run to seed. Great that it is so dry though as the weeds die quickly when they’re just hoed, no need to collect. All veg sown so far doing quite well as the ground is quite warm in spite of the cold wind. 7˚ at 10pm.
On 17 May 2018, Russ NE D'shire wrote:
Another 8 miles today mostly grassland with masses of gorse in full, coconut scented glory. Lots of natives and summer visitors including Whitethroat, Lesser Whitethroat, Redstart, Blackcap, Linnet but still no Swallows. Huge numbers of insects with clouds of greenfly. Hot sun, but very cold wind...
On 17 May 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
3 deg.start yesterday morning at 6 a.m a lot of sunshine and max 16-17 deg a fab day but with a breeze keeping it on the cooler side all day and a chilly eve. 6 at 7 a.m this morn.dry but mostly cloudy all day max 16 deg.
On 17 May 2018, Steve Devine wrote:
Hi Gerry, just saw your question about the Blocking High. Looking at the latest GFS output, it suggests the HP over the UK drifts over Norway then draws in a mild easterly flow. We stay dry and mild for the weekend but then the air destablises from the south as Low Pressure moves into France, leaving southern England in the battleground zone. North is best next week it would seem. Still, we should see temperatures in the low to mid 20s by midweek. Can't see it lasting though, the Jet Stream is all over the place.
On 17 May 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
No thought of t-shirt and shorts to work in the garden yesterday evening. A cold wind blowing but ideal to have a bonfire and blow the smoke away from the houses. I was surprised to find the CH on this morning but it was colder than yesterday with the wind. Lovely sunny day again but only 59F as 2pm approaches. Our forecast has a polar low which is showing on the models for Saturday but it tracks north and dissipates in the face of what looks like a blocking high. Thoughts anyone? I have seen swallows once so far when the cloud was down and they were flying around the church steeple. I have spotted lots of plumlets on my trees, more than I have seen before. And a damson that was only planted in 2015 and produced 1 fruit last year which I thought was good for a new tree has 30 this year.
On 16 May 2018, Russ NE D'shire wrote:
Digitalis.....thanks. I think I saw a Swalloe sat on tetephone wire yesterday while driving but not very sure. we did almost 11 miles over moorland, through open deciduous woodland, ending with sheep pasture, all good Swallow country but not a single Swallow, Swift or Martin. Hardly any birdlife at all in what used to be one of the best bird watching spots I've known. So empty and quiet, the place had a strange, eerie quality. The only birds were Woodpigeon, Carrion Crow, Jackdaw and a female Sparrowhawk and a few Meadow Pipits. An occasional bee and a handful of butterflies.
On 16 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, bright, cold & windy from the NW, very sunny day with a max temp of 18˚, respectable in view of the wind, which calmed down only in the evening, 8˚ at 9pm.
On 16 May 2018, eastside wrote:
Dunno where you get your figures from for the Alps!
I was up skiing on May 8th and there hasn't been so much snow at 3000m for years!
It's a fact 2016-2018 were the coldest years of the 21st century.
A guide I met in Chamonix told me he hasn't had such good ski conditions on Mere de Glace for years, and will extend well into this summer.
Being as heavy snow fell once again on all Mont Blanc region for the last 5 days, (you know those mountains that are higher than any in Switzerland!), it's likely snow conditions are better than they have been any time in the last 15 years.
I don't really care for statistics, what I believe is what I see.
On 16 May 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
On the Swiss subject SLF/WSL said it was one of the longest and whitest winters for 30yrs above 1500m but with half the usual amount below 1000m - one wonders what happens between 1000m and 1500m. Warmest January on record going back to 1864 which probably caused the extended avalanche risk area and 26 deaths as opposed to an average of 21. Was hoping to use the NNE wind to have a bonfire last night - every bit of warmth helps Maria - but come 8pm it had died away completely only to be back this morning and increased in strength. A few spots of rain on the train window but otherwise a bright but cool day so far reaching 59F. Being a canny shopper, if you go the food hall at shows at the end of the day you can pick up some bargains as they look to reduce what they take back. The only downside is if you have walked to the show to avoid the queues to get out.
On 16 May 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
A mid May update from slf.ch on the snow prevalence in the Swiss Alps:
1) The warm April and continuing melt in the first half of May means Eastern Switzerland's mountains now have less snow than the long-term average, Western Switzerland has slightly more than the long-term average, with unusually high levels limited to the mountains around Zermatt and Saas Fee.
2) The measuring station on the Weissfluhjoch at around 2500m, above Davos, shows snow depths above average from late November to late April, but now significantly below average.
Lessons: heavy snowfall does not per se mean elongated prevalance into summer; high levels of snow on high mountains does not mean high levels below 1500m (where crops grow); and once snow melt starts, the rate of melting can rapidly make winter depths relatively unimportant.
As I have said many times before, cool springs are far more important than snowy winters in determining effects on glacier fronts....
On 15 May 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
The day following last post was a turn around and a good bit of rain, good job the kids had mates over last Tues. as rained heavily Wed. and has been a mixed bag - now since, some nice sunny spells and slight improvement last couple days mixed with cloudy showery weather, some humid milder spells then a drop again tonight to feel like the warm edge faded again, the weather def.bouncing all over the place, must be similar in uk as Gerry has taken to carrying food and booze to keep warm 😅 mostly cloudy and 10
deg.at 9.44pm with a N light wind.
On 15 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C overnight, 10˚ at 7.30, bright start as a prelude to another scorcher of a day with a max temp of 22˚ until about 3pm when the wind gradually began to turn from the SW into the NW, clouds moved in and it became markedly cooler, looked like it was going to rain but only produced a few drops, still 11˚ at 9.30pm. So far Piers’ prediction hasn’t been as cold as expected for us here, but in Aboyne they had -4˚ the other early morning. Although we’ve had cool weather we’ve also had quite a bit of sun and that always makes an immediate difference, also to plant growth.
On 15 May 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
The Saturday forecast was for showers but became one long shower from 11am to about 9pm! Fingers crossed that the forecast for Sunday was going to happen and indeed it was a great day at the cowpie. Quite warm in the sun in the afternoon, especially carrying my food and booze home. Gradually getting a bit warmer each day and has now reached 70F in the City. Any sign of the polar low shown in the forecast?
On 14 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C overnight, 7˚ at 7.30, splendidly bright start followed by a splendid sunny day with a max temp of 21˚, though the wind was pretty cool and would have felt cold without the sun, coming from W - SE. Nevertheless, spring is coming in spite of the resistance of the cold that wants to creep in, 9˚ at 9.30pm.
On 14 May 2018, Bill S (NE Wales) wrote:
Currently on holiday North Aberdeenshire. Sunday had two pulses of very heavy rain moving slowly nw. Cleared Banffshire coast late afternoon leaving a clear sunny end to the day. Monday has seen light to moderate SE wind , sunny nearly all day with only fair weather clouds. Hazy sun through some cirrus clouds late on. A fine spring day, hope it continues :) A lot of fields still look at the tender stages of growth with less than 4-6” growth for some crops.
On 14 May 2018, Digitalis wrote:
Hi Russ, the swallows (house martins and swifts) have arrived in the Netherlands, apparently the bad weather conditions in the Sahara and Maroc delayed their flight North. No cuckoo though here yet.
On 13 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, fog and rain and a big wet morning with some really tropical downpours, being May though it dried up reasonably well in the sunny afternoon, so much so that our neighbour was out spreading fertiliser and rolling the grass in our fields without leaving any marks, max temp 15˚, lovely clear evening, 7˚ at 10pm.
On 13 May 2018, eastside wrote:
A band of freezing weather assaulted France today with some instability which will remain for an unusually cold,wet week for mid May.
40 cm of snow fell in parts of the massif central causing havoc, with temperatures as low as freezing around Lyon area.
The whole mediterranean area is cool and thundery with a fall of temperature of 15C within 1 day.
Temperatures are not expected to return to normal for at least 10 days.
On 12 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, quite a bit of rain overnight, cloudy start but brightening up soon to give us an almost summery day, as you say Bill S, lovely flat bottomed clouds that didn’t look like rain at all, much sunshine and a max temp of 20˚ in spite of the rather cool S’ly wind, quit still by evening and fog running in off the N Sea, 9˚ at 10pm. So far this month, the cold hasn’t been too severe and we’ve had good sunshine in between, long may it continue.
On 12 May 2018, Bill S (NE Wales) wrote:
On holiday back home in North Aberdeenshire. Thursday a nice sunny day , cool , with a shower mid afternoon. Friday dry day however very windy with dust blowing off the fields giving a browny haze, cloudy and Cold but dry. Some light rain overnight leaving Saturday a very fine sunny day after some early low cloud light to fresh southerly breeze dare I say it was summery.
On 11 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C overnight, so there was a remnant of frost on the car roof early on, 9˚ at 7.30, bright for a start with a cold S - SE’ly wind that kept going all day, clouds moving in but we still had some intermittent sunshine, 12˚ max temp. Everything is now very dry with the dust swirling in the wind, hard to believe that not long ago there appeared to be no end to the wet. 9˚ at 10pm.
On 10 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, overcast but still, then brightening up to give us a brilliant sunny day with a few showers in the afternoon, not as cold as expected, with a respectable max temp of 18˚, all accompanied by a fairly stiff WNW’ly breeze which disappeared completely by evening, as is often the case, 9˚ by 9pm. == Russ, from what I can tell, we now have two breeding pairs of swallows, so things are looking up. That farm cutting grass would more likely have been for silage, no? A bit early for hay even in your parts.
On 10 May 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Maybe both cold ground and too much moisture Paddy, together making very poor growing conditions for the grass. Recently sown crops seem to be romping along. Only 10C walking our doggie on the moors this morning and with the windchill it forced my hands into my pockets. Not much difference at 1pm really, the wind having the same chill but with the sun being higher, it was much warmer so compensated somewhat. Noticed severe damage to a landowners Rhododendrons. About 40% diseased and almost dead. Odd really but the disease was taking alternate shrubs (very well established - 15ft height and 12ft span), and in a hedge formation, so very close to each other, yet an alternate infection....very odd! The ones inbetween just starting to look diseased. They need chopping right back or they'll be lost...... No Swallows!
On 10 May 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
The City is baking in the sunshine at 60F! Yep, quite a contrast to last week but it was shown to be coming. A heavy spell of rain last night left some big puddles. The showground for last weekend's show was very soft in parts and if you knelt on it you got your knees wet. Lots of moisture still in there. The rain was gone by morning and it was a sunny but cool start. And yes, heat goes quickly. I went out at just after 7pm to do some work in the orchard and was decked out in shorts and t-shirt. After stepping outside, I stepped back in to get a long-sleeved t-shirt as it was only 60F by then. Kept it on while turf cutting and it was 58F by 8.15. The house though warms nicely in the sun during the day.
On 09 May 2018, Russ NE D'shire wrote:
Thanks Andy - Chilterns, that's great news........I have seen at least one farm taking a first, reasonable cut of hay but the fields were on a ridge on very high ground around 800ft so maybe very good drainage. The surrounding fields on level ground around 500ft have little growth, maybe 5 or 6 inches. It certainly looks as though sodden ground is holding growth back.
On 09 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, bright start but clouds moving in by 10.30 on a blustery SW’ly wind which wasn’t nearly as pleasant as yesterday on account of it being returning polar air, max temp 15˚, occasional light intervals, intermittent light rain after 4.30, altogether a big change from yesterday, 8˚ by 9pm. As has often been remarked on this blog by various people, as soon as the sun disappears it gets markedly cooler/colder, there seems to be no reserve ambient heat even on warm days; the after effects of winter/slow spring no doubt, but still.
On 09 May 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
On holiday but working and although it seems wrong to say it, it was nicer when the sun went behind the clouds.
The hedge to be trimmed was in the full sun so it was hot work. A nice breeze came up and was quite strong late afternoon before dying away. Cools off quite rapidly in the evening. Airports are of no use for temperature recording as they have changed so much over time and given records are set by tenths of a degree it doesn't take much to contaminate the site. Cheering news that the New York attorney general behind the Exxonknew scam is to be prosecuted for sexual assault.
On 09 May 2018, @piers_corbyn wrote:
BRILL COMMS ALL. =+=+= i am just back from China exciting events And meetings +=+=+ i notice 5 week spring delay in sole measures uk, thanks rhys =+=+= May Wilde swings continuing all over bi eu USA. SUBSCRIBE!!!
On 08 May 2018, Andy (Chilterns) wrote:
Swallows arrived in our barn about a week ago and are busy going back and forth.
On 08 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
12˚C at 7.30, cloudy start but getting sunny and warming up quickly to a max of 24˚, for us that is blistering! Warm SW’ly wind, fabulous until about 4pm when a passing front brought dark clouds and a short light shower which made temps drop markedly, had to put my shirt back on again. Sunny evening though with 13˚ at 9.30pm.
On 08 May 2018, Russ NE D'shire wrote:
Moorland grass just starting to grow. Same with purple heather, hardly any growth. Just started to drizzle here as of 4:45pm. All streams are flowing nicely with plenty of insects. No sign of Swallows.
On 08 May 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Gerry
I live 3 miles from Northolt and it was just as hot here away from what is a minor airport serving the odd private charter.
Nature shows duck, drake and 10 ducklings swimming on GU Canal, along with Canada geese and their eight goslings. Nature came through the winter easily. And walking the towpath was a pleasure as the heat was moderated by lush overgrowrth of trees shading the path from direct sun.
Soil temperature at 6 inches depth 14C in shade and 16-18C in sunny positions. No block to veg growth here. However the emergence of rogue tubers unharvested last year happened this past week, five weeks later than last year.
No problems with fruit set either. Lots of pears set and apple set continues with no risk of frost.
On 08 May 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Some improvement on Friday, 6 deg start on Saturday soon heating up to give a fab sunny day around 21 deg. Sunday hotter but not as comfortable to work in as Sat. and more muggy with more cloud about. Bank holiday Mon. Again some great sunny spells but a lot of heavy cloud too and temp dropping overnight with the breeze and light showers to conclude. Mostly cloudy breezy 13 deg with showers and glimpses of sun around midday today.
On 08 May 2018, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:
Looking more closely at Wunderground I can see a choice of local weatherstations and I can also see that they vary. No rain showing here until the weekend but there is the temp drop from Wednesday still there. Baking day at the SESHA show yesterday but at least there was a bit of breeze. The shire horses looked magnificent. Hard work for the displays of sheepdogs and birds of prey in the heat. Hottest early May BH evah! We will all burn up...oh hang on we only got the BH in 1978. But as we know an hour is a very significant timescale for warmists who then insist a couple of centuries must pass before cooling can be admitted. The once respected Royal Society declared it would need 50 years before changing stance. And the record yesterday came from Northolt, which is an airport. Hawthorn in blossom, apple trees all out, cuckoo has been calling for the last couple of weeks. Not heard any swallows yet. Buzzards have been scarce but saw a pair circling yesterday.
On 08 May 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Paddy....Greenfinches have been singing for a few weeks here on and off, but they are pretty hardy. First Cuckoo here too a couple of days ago, but they tend to start calling when the heat builds on sunny days so perfect conditions. Could have been here a week or two but not calling. Once laying they call more often. Could this be a year with no Swallows? I'll ask my daughter to keep an eye out for them. She's about 6 miles off the south coast so if she doesn't have any, then.......eeek!.....We'll be holidaying in the far north west of Scotland at the end of September. We always get marvellous weather in that period but with things shifting about so much I'm not optimistic. Early onset of autumn could make it a bit chilly but might remain dry with a bit of luck.
On 07 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, bright start but dulling over with high level fog pretty quickly, staying grey for most of the day with a cold E’ly wind, max temp 16˚ when the sun finally came out a bit by 5pm, cloudy evening, 9˚ by 10pm. Putting a positive slant on it, you could say that at least it wasn’t frosty :-) == Russ: all migratory bird life is late this year, only just saw my first greenfinch the other day, willow warblers only now starting to sing, goldfinches also late - but we’ve heard cuckoo yesterday, which is kind of what you would expect at this time. From Piers’ forecasting skills we know that there won’t be any normal anymore for quite a while!
On 07 May 2018, Russ NE D'shire wrote:
Update...back to rain on Wednesday. Flippin numpties! Why don't they Google raintoday then sat24 then work out what its likely to do. Twould be more accurate than the shambles they manage to dream up on a daily basis. Who accidentally put the word LOGIC in meteorological cos that particular office wouldn't recognise lodic if it grew wings and flew around their boardroom for a month while reciting The Rime of The Ancient Mariner!
On 07 May 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Gerry...the Met said heavy thundery showers Wednesday and windy, that's now moved to Friday but mainly in the west. I wonder what they'll be saying by Wednesday? ....... Paddy, further to my comment on Swallows, I walked for several hours today in wall to wall sun and heat, with plenty of flies but saw not a single Swallow. So depressing cos it's one of my favourite birds. Starting the second week of May and the Larches have caught up and are in full leaf. Half a dozen tree types slow to catch up though. No Swifts or Martins either....very strange! The rest of the local birdlife seems fine with plenty of nesting Curlews, Goldfinches, Jays, Linnets etc. I wonder if the Swallows and Swifts will come at all this year?.....Cattle on the moors but farmers haven't released them onto the grass yet. Looks like some fields have had a very early cut (desperation?), with no livestock at all. This time of year we usually see 2ft tall hay being cut, this year it's mostly 4 inches and struggling.
On 06 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
11˚C at 7.30, overcast, still & mild but the sun was out by 8.30 and temps climbed very quickly to a max of 23˚, hottest so far this year, the SW’ly wind picked up, though not as much as yesterday, and the whole day felt like being on holiday in a warm country. 12˚ at 10pm. The rest of the week will be a mixed bag of warm & cold according to the MO; our old apple tree is only just showing its flower buds, nowhere near opening yet. More swallows have just arrived, but you’re right, Russ, it’s been quite a number of years since we’ve last had a good ‘crop’ of swallows on our farm.
On 06 May 2018, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:
Another lovely day with a nice breeze if you are working outside. The wind is from an easterly direction again and Gatwick is again on eastern pattern. The Wunderground forecast for me has changed a lot from yesterday with showers for Friday to Sunday. Temps fro today and tomorrow have been raised again with 81F for the Bank Holiday. The government if it planning for anything at all is planning for us to grow pineapples and olives in the searing heat of global warming. But that is just another example of how everything the government plans goes wrong due to ignorance. What could be the beginning of the end for global warming has come with a paper co-authored by Judith Curry on sensitivity to CO2 being published in the Journal of Climate. The paper drastically lowers the warming that might be due to CO2 but the key is where it was published. Parking our sceptic tanks on the warmists lawn as the Journal of Climate is warmist territory.
On 06 May 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Paddy...I've noticed a huge decline in Swallow numbers with only the occasional year being near normal, that's over the past 20 years seeing them decline...... Further to my comment to Rhys, I have seen Canadians bragging that they have minus 50C every year and have no problem with that level of cold. But that won't help when they have minus 65 and an extra 30 feet of snow to cope with. Given the simple description, people just think it'll get colder with a bit more snow and later springs. That is the very least of their worries. Changing rapidly from 10C to -25C with 36hrs of freezing rain should cause untold misery for millions of people, livestock, crops and infrastructure. When that type of phenomenon hits several times in one month, the destruction will be incomprehensible. What the Russians and Canadians have been accustomed to over the past 120 years cannot be compared with what is to come...a living nightmare...yet only weather...crazy but true...
On 05 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
12˚C at 7.30, cloudy & mild, turning brightly sunny after 9 with temps steadily rising even in the fresh SW’ly wind, reaching a high of 21˚, somewhat cloudy for a while around midday but then brightening up again to give a sunny & mild end to the day, still 12˚ at 10pm. It appears that our resident swallow does have a companion, already sitting on eggs, I was told, but if we only have one pair this year the others must have got decimated on their journey out and back.
On 05 May 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Agreed Rhys but the coming mini ice age isn't going to simply shift the long Ukrainian spring a bit further south. The wild jet stream which has been observed for what - 15 years now, will cause insane changes and sudden and unexpected floods, all across the world, which haven't been experienced for over 160 years. No one alive today can comprehend 9 inch pieces of ice killing cattle stone dead in hail storms. The East Europeans have seen devastation caused to forests and the power network due to sudden and persistent freezing rain. These type of phenomenon will get progressively worse over the next 20 years. I doubt if our government has even planned for crop changes to keep production levels high enough. Chinese already experimenting with giant poly-tunnels. Big and drastic changes need to be experimented with right now. GM crops may end up a necessity rather than a lifestyle choice even for the Russians...
On 05 May 2018, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:
What a great way to tend the week. A BH special Friday evening at our farm shop with freshly made pizza cooked in a pizza oven in a horse box parked outside. It was thronged with so many people that fresh supplies of beer had to be brought down from the brewery and we ate all the pizza. It was shirtsleeves to begin but after sunset it soon got chilly. Lovely day today as noon approaches it is already 66F but there is a nice breeze. Another day and another change to the 10 day Wunderground forecast. Monday has been raised again to 79F and Tuesday to 76F but the drop is still there as Wednesday is 64 going to 55 for Saturday. Showers that had been shown earlier for Friday, then Saturday have gone completely and I hope their Sunday is right as I have a cowpie show.
On 04 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, overcast but mild with a light SW’ly wind, some sun during the morning with a max temp of 19˚ but in the afternoon the wind got somewhat stronger, clouds moved in and it felt distinctly cool, dry all day though, 11˚at 9.30pm. We still only have one solitary swallow sitting on our phone wire, waiting for its companions.
On 04 May 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Cloud came over yesterday evening as I was outside fixing my car. No rain though. sunny again today and not as chilly this morning. But it is 65F in the City so far. Wunderground has edged the temps up for the next few days but nowhere near the Mail's 82F for Monday. But there is a cool off showing from Wednesday. Is there a reason for why there is such a deviation from the May forecast after being so spot on in April? There is still one lake left on the road up to my alternative station after the sunday night rain and Wednesday top up.
On 04 May 2018, Ben Farrington sub wrote:
Temperatures up until today for this month (NW Moray) have been running below average, cool but not cold. Today at 10am 16deg fair with a breezy Souwesterly, a deviation from the WA forecast. Indeed the WA forecasts have done superbly well with the cold spells, until now. Will be interesting to see if/when the cold returns to the NE of Scotland (one of the coldest May on record?)
When is the "all summer now" forecast out Piers?
On 04 May 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Russ, I think you need to start thinking a bit more rationally about climate. Firstly Russia has hugely colder, longer lasting winters than ours and feeds itself, has fed itself. There are species whose seeds only germinate after prolonged cold and many trees perform best with hard winter frosts, notably fruit trees. So all this talk about protecting things at colossal expense fails to ask 'should we grow cold adapted species at far less expense?' The Siberian pea is a classic example of a perennial legume which grows to four metres high and could be part of edible cold-adapted hedges.
Being slaves to wheat, corn and the like without having a genetic bank of hundreds of cultivars with a range of climate resilience factors is sheer madness.The Peruvians grow thousands of potato strains, covering all climate eventualities from drought to heat, wetness to cold.
Start assuming the west are arrogant idiots then maybe change will come.
Saying it iswheat or nothing invites starvation
On 03 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
1˚C overnight, 5˚ at 7.30, light frost again early on, bright start with a SW’ly breeze and a sunny morning with temps getting up to 16˚. Cloudier afternoon, as so often lately, with a long rain shower around 6pm, still overcast by 9pm and 8˚.
On 03 May 2018, Russ NE D'shire wrote:
Trees...hmmm| Interesting that a sudden chill for a few days has suspended the rush to leaf up. many species are stuck, apparently unable to continue. This has to be taken into account for future crop yields. Silage farmers will already be aware of grasses reluctance to grow in cold weather. Protection from cold will be essential and a collosal expense. We've had the heating on more often than not. I told a friend that the Sun's large Earth facing coronal hole, plus the conjunctio(?) of Jupiter and our full Moon, may give the atmosphere a good charge, thereby increasing the likelihood of unexpected snowfall or heavy sustained rainfall. I think the effects were delayed about 24hrs. The birdlife has also been playing a waiting game due to the cold. House Sparrows are only now becoming vociferous and gathering nest material. So strange. They seem aware that something isn't right..
On 03 May 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Piers features on Iceagenow today. The Mail has picked up on the warm weather for the weekend and claims a high of 82F for the south on Monday. But then their weather forecasts are usually rubbish. Wunderground slowly changes each day and has now boosted Monday by 6 degrees to 73 and Tuesday by 5 to 72. Rain due Friday has now been pushed back to Saturday. The CH is still firing up and doing so in the mornings too. Just 41F to start the sunny day off but in the City it is now 59F. A full day of sun will heat the house and most likely keep the CH off. Good to have the option of lighting the fire.
On 03 May 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Mixed bag the last week, mostly rain some heavy showers one or 2 with a little hail, Monday was actually nice quite warm with sunny spells but the wind kept temp. down but good for working outside. Blustery and showery again today but met.ie say a few dry warmer days for bank holiday weekend.
On 02 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, rain to 10.30, S’ly wind gradually turning into the NW, feeling pretty cold all day, 9˚ max, dry afternoon with a good bit of sunshine, clear evening 5˚ at 10pm.
On 02 May 2018, Andy B 45D sub SE Wales wrote:
121 mm for us during April a lot wetter than average 2014 108mm 2015 7mm 2016 60mm 2017 7mm
22mm over night.
Interesting forecast for May (Great work Piers getting it out on time) Hoping it will not be as bad as forecast.
On 02 May 2018, Bill S (NE Wales) wrote:
So April was a mixed month for this neck of the woods. Rainfall totalled 96mmmost in a month for over a year. Most of the rain fell in a few days A nice summery spell mid month to balance things out. Have had to supplement the summer duvet with a blanket the last few days. This month is off to a wet start, heavy rain last night and this morning with some gusty south west winds overnight
On 01 May 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C overnight, 2˚ at 7.30, open ground was white & slightly hard with frost early on & the ice on the car roof took some time to melt. Brilliant sunny morning, slowly clouding over after 11, strong S’ly wind keeping temps down, though we got to 16˚ max at some point. Same again: hot in the sun, cold in the wind. A few spots of rain by evening, 7˚ at 9.30pm.
On 01 May 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
The first day of May and if yesterday morning was cold try 38F and a frost. Thankfully only a light one as there is so much to damage in the orchard. The cloud had cleared by sundown and it was a moonlit night so I guess colder could be expected. At least we have the sun today. I see that there is already a deviation from the May forecast and what Wunderground has to offer. I would prefer theirs as they have a nice BH weekend and it is the first show of the year. We shall see. First job this evening will be bring in more firewood.
On 30 Apr 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Seen very little evidence of slugs and snails so far this spring hopefully that continues. Cold tonight heating is on.
On 30 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, ground frost as expected, though gone by 8.30, cold NE’ly breeze going all day, brilliant blue sky all day, hot in sheltered sunshine but feeling really cold in the wind, max temp 16˚ but only where the thermometer is situated out of the wind, 5˚ by 9pm, frost in the offing, I’m sure. Not too unusual for us at this time of year, I have to say.
On 30 Apr 2018, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// been monitoring swallow arrivals her in Guernsey and in some parts last week arrivals, in the barns down my road they have just turned up April 30 - I believe that is quite late, all the same warmer weather on the way
On 30 Apr 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
At 7.15am it was 39F!!!! That is effing cold. Only just scraped 44F in town. I set my thermostat at 17.5C (don't think it does proper temperature) and put it down to 16 as it was on the edge last week and if chilly I can light the fire. Yesterday it came on even at that temp. Used more gas this winter than the last two but at least it is better than having to use electricity for heating. Looks like it is warming up tomorrow. Had lots of rain overnight to leave a huge puddle in the yard and lots of lakes on the roads. Nice pic on iceagenow of snow just inland from St Tropez and at 1100ft so not alpine peaks.
On 29 Apr 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
.. Room temps has gone from 25°C to 17. No central heating on all month as I'm still paying for the winter - the combo of cold temps and stupid green taxes hurting all of us. I noticed mid week my smartphone battery was discharging quite fast. During the Beast it crashed more than once, do I thought my battery had died but once indoors it awoke. I think before next winter I may need a more robust case ===
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/uk-cold-weather-smartphone-phone-battery-life-down-lower-a6821586.html
On 29 Apr 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
What goes up must come down. Boom & bust. From nearly 28°C & sunny to a struggle to rise above 7°C + no Sun for 3 days + dew points at 2°C. Fresh but breathable. Nature seems to know & the past week has shed beautiful blossom in snow like falls drifting over the wind. Daffs went from a long season of struggle to one last flourish of white narcissi before they to were gone. Primroses at least have come on again & the grass which needed it's first cut in unison with the heat is sluggish once again. Not a single frost all month, below av Sun, pressure, above av rainfall sunless days and thunder. Temps a good +2°C above av. mostly from milder overcast nights as well as the Beauty from the East. Beautifully predicted Piers. // I see a reasonable summer ahead in terms of dry and Sun as for temps I think we may be on the cool side although never discount scenarios like the past two months where the wavy Jetstream brings us heaven or hell - according to your preference....
On 29 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, bright & cold start, frost on car roof early on, not out of the woods yet. Cold N’ly breeze, clouding over by 11 and staying that way until late afternoon when the sun came out again, max temp 11˚; clouds dispersing by 5pm and by 9pm we had 5˚, which in the now still conditions can only mean and overnight frost, I took the precaution of covering seedlings and tender plants in the tunnel with a fleece.
On 29 Apr 2018, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:
Early afternoon, just 2 days from May and it is 47F. And to make it chillier, today we have a wind where yesterday was a light breeze. The contrast to last weekend is stark as I set off to work in the orchard with a coat over the sweatshirt - no t-shirt and shorts. Apples about half out as have different varieties. Medlars coming on and some flowers coming on the quince for the first time. Blossom still on the plums but can see some fruit setting. Bluebells fully out. Wind is useful today to dry the grass as it was too wet to cut yesterday. Wunderground had showers due by 2pm yesterday but today this has gone back to 7pm. There is a nice roundup up of the US mid states on Iceage where planting has yet to begin. And wine drinkers in Europe will find the results of last year's frosts coming through with a big reduction in output. Still, there is always beer.
On 29 Apr 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Although excitement occurs with very early or very late snowfall, the Scottish ski season was good due to continuous cover from mid January to mid April in all five centres. Yes, very early snow came to Glencoe late Nov/early Dec, but it was washed away. When spring finally came, it came with a vengeance, seeing very rapid melt across all centres.
The reality is 90 days continuous will make a season successful and another 30 days on top will make it bumper.
On 29 Apr 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
First asparagus here in NW London sliced on 27th April, the same day I planted maincrop potatoes. 2nd early potatoes sown April 1st through on time in under three weeks. Pear blossom came and went with fruit set, all in under 10 days. Apple now in full blossom. Onions all transplanted late April doing very well. First cut of comfrey likely by 7th May vis a vis 9th April in 2017.
Soil temperature after the heat wave was 14C at 6 inches depth, saying soil is warm enough for good growth.
On 28 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, cold N’ly breeze, cloudy morning with a light shower, cloudy & cold all day with a mere 12˚ max temp, time to light the stove for comfort in the afternoon, some rain in the evening, one really heavy & prolonged burst after 9pm situated just in our area according to the radar, 6˚ at 9pm. == Here is a short article on the last two years’ cooling https://bit.ly/2vZITb4 that the warmists won’t like :-)
On 28 Apr 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS and Vimtobeeb going for two very different outcomes for the weekend--could they both be wrong!?
On 27 Apr 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Brrrr parky tonight running down the garden with tomato seedlings that have just emerged chilli seedlings yet to and cucumber and courgettes that have just come up too, frost mentioned so just incase we are bringing them in. 5 deg at 10.45pm early night for all as more than half the house have headaches this eve.
On 27 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, cloudy, cool & almost still, reasonably sunny morning, showery looking clouds moving in by midday, E’ly breeze getting up along with bits of rain which eventually turning into prolonged rain from 3.30pm onwards, stopped all garden work and cooled things down considerably from the 14˚ max we had. 6˚ by 9.30pm, feeling more like March than nearly May. As so often observed, no ambient heat so that every time the sun disappears temps drop very markedly.
On 27 Apr 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Increased shower activity in the last few hours and fresh snow above 850 metres and sleet in the heavier showers here at 140 metres in Highland Perthshire.
On 27 Apr 2018, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
GREAT COMMS AND REPORTS ALL! THANKS. +=+=+ The 5th cold blast of Spring is coming 30th April +1st May +.... Our WeatherAction forecasts got all 5. +=+=+=+= So if you haven't subscribed yet do it NOW or extend your current sub - THE 70%OFF DEALS ALL END TODAY 4.30pm BST Hurry!
On 26 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, overcast but getting really bright for a while before dramatic looking shower clouds started rolling in on a cool and blustery WNW’ly wind. Again, hot in the sun but bracingly cold under passing clouds, max temp only 15˚ today, one short sharp shower of any note, otherwise dry, lovely late evening light, 7˚ at 9pm, still windy.
On 26 Apr 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
I thought I heard the heating this morning and once up, yep the rads were hot. So that shows how much colder it was last night. In the evening the CH was hovering on the verge of coming on so I lit the fire. 56F at 2pm in the City but at least it is sunny. Windy this morning from the west blowing the St George flags out nicely.
On 25 Apr 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
6 deg. this morning another typical April showers day but the wind keeping us on the cooler side, some dark clouds about and heavy showers again the ground is fairly saturated and then a few sunny spells to tempt outside this afternoon, managed to get 35 min of interval training walking n jogging done and like Russ said the trees have just snuck out bit of green here n there great to see them all coming back. On our ground the Ash out before the oak and the Horse chestnut and red Maple amongst others coming out too. Spinach Beetroot Pakchoi Chard lettuce Greek Cress Radish seeds first up and 1 cucumber and 1 Corgette seed also peeking out.
On 25 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, melting evidence of frost on car roof, bright sunny morning but cloud beginning to move in by 11am with some dark looking stuff that in the end didn’t produce any showers. Working in the sun was almost too hot, as soon as it was obscured by clouds it felt distinctly chilly, blustery W’ly wind but still a max temp of 17˚ in the brighter moments, pleasant & still end to the day, 6˚ at 10pm. == Ron, the first batch our hazel has only just begun to emerge after sitting in the tunnel for almost 8 weeks, never been so slow. We just finished planting some 400 mixed broadleaf & conifer trees on newly reinstated ground, just in time I think, as leaf growth is now seriously starting in spite of the present cold blip.
On 25 Apr 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Trees! It's amazing how fast everything is catching up. Another week and almost everything will be in full leaf across North Norfolk.
Different story with the crop though. Some potato's already sown but farmers still out preparing fields - inbetween downpours - and planting. Spring cabbages seem to have thicker leaves this year....or is that some weird illusion cos I'm getting older? Saw lots of waterlogged fields but I guess Norfolk isn't the easiest place to drain excess moisture. The rapeseed is fairly hit & miss with very patchy edges and lots of stunted growth. But mother nature, when left to her own devices, waits until the time is right then lets rip with an awesome display of rapid growth. A pleasure to witness! Also, our bramble took a massive hit from the ice & snow plus canker last year. No growth until about 5 days ago. Now it's gone bananas! No...not growing bananas...but hopefully we'll get a bumper crop of blackberries again this year.
On 25 Apr 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
A sweltering 58F here in town. And the sun is beaming down. A lot of cloud yesterday afternoon and some very light spots of rain. No just a shirt and watch the sun set over the football ground last night. Very different to last Thursday night. Cold wind that was quite strong when I got home. Some overnight rain. The back-up diesel generators that are there mainly to fire up quickly and cover for sudden drops in supply from the unreliables come at an eye watering cost of 3 times the going rate. They do the same job as the absurd batteries, but with generating plant closing each year, they may have to run for long periods to prevent blackouts due to supply shortage soon. Pretty much all the legacy media has bought into the global warming-unreliable energy crap. Jo Nova provides a chilling view of our future by covering the Australian energy grid suicide programme.
On 25 Apr 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
PADDY: the brief warm spell, gave a short pump to the tree seedlings in my raised beds, but now back to a frustrating stasis and the Vimtobeeb forecast for the coming week is hardly encouraging. The better performance of all the northern origin species is very striking, especially compared to the milder conditions of last year.
On 24 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, sunny morning with a stiff W’ly wind, max temp 17˚, a bit colder though when exposed to the wind, cloud moving in from the W in the afternoon, light shower in the evening which cooled things down quite a bit, 6˚ at 9.30pm.
On 24 Apr 2018, Bill S (N E Wales) wrote:
So for round this area this month it is already the wettest month this year and the wettest since last November. Having said that last week was dry. The rain has occurred in a few really wet days , heAvy rain drops too. So I see that the Uk had no coal powered electric for 55hrs over the weekend. Big deal. Where was the headline in March cold spell when all coal available was running ? What they don’t tell you is in the capacity mechanism contracts for future, the coal has been replaced with reciprocating engines running on diesel with max outputs at a fraction of the output of the big coal sites With similar efficiency machines So next time when the COalers are all shut and it happens to be another cold event ,the shortfall will be made up bythese small engines.To make the point in how stupid the strategy is these engines can only run for a short period as they have limited storage for diesel. Allthat to save a fraction of co2in the guise of preventing”climate change”.
On 24 Apr 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Saturday was fab very hot at one part and then rapid change overnight to rain and lower temp, fairly heavy showers Monday & today a little sunshine between at times, some huge dark clouds and 10 deg at 7.50pm see the first swallows here on Saturday.
On 24 Apr 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Wot lightning? ENVY! We must live in a lightning free zone. We get a good lightning storm about once every 10 years. We go for many years without seeing any. Not fair! Don't usually get much snow either considering how far north we are.....Off to Norwich tomorrow so I'll report on the greenery & crops en route...... Craig, thanks for the heads up. As with most propaganda, in one breath they say that you can't use a short time scale to represent climate change, then in the next breath they do exactly that. Does the '26 days early' lady ever read the local news? Or maybe talk to her local farmers? Doesn't appear so, or she would feel a right plonker making the statement she did.
On 24 Apr 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
At least it was dry as the village celebrated our national day with an evening party. Coats all round in the chilly wind. It was one of those evenings where your body disagreed with the thermometer indoors. Despite being over the turn off point for the heating it felt colder than during the time it was on. Cloudy start and chilly but with more sun now. Warmer than yesterday in town at 62F. Was 51F at 6.45 when the alarm went off. Having changed to my summer coat I think it may well be a return to the warmer one for our final football match of a tough season for groundsmen and schedulers in the lower leagues. Spare a thought for the players having their weekends messed around with cancelled matches and free days taken up with rearranged fixtures and more evening games.
On 23 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, really bright & clear start but then cloud started moving in from the SW, bringing showers. The morning was quite warm with a max of 15˚ but the afternoon was decidedly cooler with the wind turning into the W and picking up quite a bit, cloudy for the rest of the day, 9˚ at 9pm. We had ‘our’ first swallow sitting on the phone line today, I don’t think it was one of the residents yet, just stopping on the way further north.
On 23 Apr 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Interesting comment from the farmer that weather is becoming more extreme. How ironic that the warmists claim that it is increasing because of global warming without any evidence and yet it may be starting to happen because of the cooling. Will we see an increase in hurricanes etc as the modern warm period dissipates? It was certainly a warm day on Saturday. Trimming trees back was hot work but it was nice to work into the evening. With the heating not needed, no need to draw the curtains so I couldn't miss the lightning flashes through the patio doors. Didn't hear any thunder but we had a good downpour. Yesterday was noticeably cooler. As the sun slid down it was chilly in t-shirt and shorts. More cloud around and a breeze compared to Saturday. Chilly today and not even made 60F in London at 2pm, hovering at 59F. About 20 degrees down on last week.
On 22 Apr 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
...cont...
Adam Lockwood grows spring onions in the Vale of Evesham in Worcestershire. “At the minute we’re struggling to get going,” he said. “Potato growers haven’t even started planting yet and drilling dates are well behind where they should be”
[…]
Like Smith, Lockwood thinks that the climate is changing. “We’re getting more rain in a shorter period rather than evenly distributed across the year – that’s what I’m noticing. And you’re getting more intense dry periods. It’s more extreme.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/14/farmers-crops-livestock-turmoil-beast-from-east-climate-change
=== more intense dry periods, that'll be a sign of cooling!
On 22 Apr 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Cracking thunderstorms last night although most skirted around here. Welcome rain. // As for the Jetstream this is a recent Observer article on how it is affecting farmers (Despite the grasping by the writer, all that within the farmers' quotes rather spoils the CAGW narrative and in fact pertains to the meridional Jetstream that Hubert Lamb often discussed and Piers Corbyn. It is nothing new.) === British farmers in turmoil as delayed spring plays havoc with growing season ==== "Farmers griping about the weather goes with the job. But Smith fears something is happening to Britain’s weather that has consequences which stretch far beyond farming.
“We farm in north-east Essex, in the driest spot in the British Isles, and so we’re keen observers of the British weather. More often now we seem to be stuck in long periods of wet months and then long periods of dry months, which is more challenging for farmers.”
...cont...
On 22 Apr 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Russ - first London Marathon was in 1981...not quite as bad as the BBC/Woodland Trust "Spring is 26 days later...our unprecedented record goes back to....2001; ===
https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2018/04/22/spring-arriving-26-days-early-bbc/ === sure there's been many a hotter period in London during the instrumental record but it's not a set date. Having said that locally was a record on Thurs ~27°C and xmetman had the 18th as a CET record back to 1772 which looks like from a high min. Locally it did not drop below 13°C overnight - uncomfortable. But this follows a record cold Feb 28th + March day during the Beast and it is EXACTLY what we would expect from solar and lunar induced climate change. As Piers keeps saying these are the wrong kind of changes, not predicted by CO2 theory (despite alarmist belief that anything that comes out of their backside is proof just because they can smell the malodour). It was the Jetstream wot done it..
On 22 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, fog lasting to 10am until it dissipated and the sun came out and stayed out for the rest of the day, albeit with some cloud cover being brought in on a SW’ly breeze, max temp 17˚ and feeling somewhat cooler altogether but still very agreeable. There was a darker spell after midday and we heard a clap of thunder. Also saw a number of swallows, our first - the distant dream has arrived :-) 7˚ at 9pm.
On 22 Apr 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Leaf opening is difficult to judge Piers, because the early leafers like Hawthorne have suddenly burst into leaf along with the late leafers like the Larch. This is giving the old subconscious brain a rather surreal moment, every time it sees trees. Rear lawn, mossy, damp, NW facing slope so hardly sees the sun, had very little growth until Wednesday then wallop. Instant 5 inches of grass since then. .... I see the BBC climate change dummy suckers are having a field day with the marathon. Hottest marathon evah! Try telling someone from Bangladesh that 23C is hot. They'll tell you that when the thermometer hits 23C, that's when they put on a coat and start filling out Christmas cards.
On 22 Apr 2018, Andy (Chilterns) wrote:
Torrential rain last night with thunder/lightning. Grass really growing quickly now and requires a cut every weekend. Blossom out on many trees.
On 21 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, frost on car roof early on (just in case we get too giddy about spring), brilliantly sunny with not a cloud in sight, followed by a wholly sunny day with puffy fair weather clouds, though with a coolish S’ly breeze which kept temps down a bit but still got to 19˚ in more sheltered locations, 7˚ at 9.30pm. This weather has brought the butterflies out of hibernation: small tortoiseshells and peacocks, such a pleasure to see them. Our son saw a few swallows yesterday while out on a job. Our bellwether for leaf growth is the Nothofagus obliqua, southern beech or Roble, it gets going very quickly when the weather warms, with progress observable at hourly intervals; it has certainly been giving us quite a performance over the last few days.
On 21 Apr 2018, David Yorkshire wrote:
Clematis Montana has burst into life, as in leafed and flower buds forming. It's about 4 weeks behind this year. Amazing what a bit of sun and warmth can do
On 21 Apr 2018, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
GREAT OBS AND COMMS ALL. I would say the Spring turning point for Putney Heath large trees from looking like February to some sort of leaves was about 15 April. We need some more obs on leaf progress but like everyone I've noticed astounding growth in the last 3 days all over the place. On the Asparagus Test the Field Grown ready-for-Market normal date (S England) is April 23rd, St Georges day. Thanks for others obs that first first shoots just showing so will this year be ready before or later than 5 weeks late (the 2013 delay)? +=+=+=+ Hope you all liked sharp winter-summer (and now back to cold again) switch we correctly predicted 9 weeks ahead (detail) =+=+=+= Hurry top deals TODAY 12mth of 45d:- BI; Eu OR BI+Eu at amazing **67% OFF** - GoGoGo! Full extensions credit for any current sub. Thank you pass it on
On 21 Apr 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Message from the wise woman on BBC Radio 4 this morning, stating that the climate was getting warmer, uh? Just after the BBC admitted that this winter never seemed to end and last summer was almost a year without one. Don't seem to be able to prevent their stories from contradicting one another. . Everything is blooming oop here but it's very hit & miss up & down the country with very little consistency. I wonder if the wetness of the ground is contributing to the delay in many areas?
On 20 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
10˚ cloudy, SW’ly breeze, a bit cooler than yesterday but then turning into another fab sunny day, wind picking up and turning W’ly, 20˚ max, amazing to see - and smell - the grass bursting forth at sudden speed, weather like this is good for the morale, still 12˚ at 10pm. == Ron, our hazel has been phenomenally slow this year, seed sown on Feb 23 only just emerging, and that’s in the tunnels. Our bare rooted tree planting almost finished, lucky for us that we have a late spring as the ground has only just been made ready.
On 20 Apr 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Seeking knowledge from our host now. For the first time I can recall since watching the solar wind there has been what they describe as an 'interplanetary shock wave' which quadrupled the density of the solar wind abruptly. It also lifted the wind speed. Does this mean it will have a greater effect than a normal increase in wind speed and density?
On 20 Apr 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Why was I sure Paul Homewood would cover the temp from yesterday? MetO champing at the bit to announce a new record and prepared to lie to do so. MetO now saying not a record and have St. James's Park - in the centre of one of the world's largest cities - coming in at 29.1C. Paul has the record at 29.4C in 1922, 1944 and 1949. Earlier we had CityAM and some hackette spouting their press release reporting that Northolt had set a record just pipping Heathrow to beat 1949. Anyone care to speculate if both Northolt - which they don't say is an airport - and Heathrow looked a little different back in 1949? Well it sure is hot today and it was a lovely evening for football last night. The pitch is now very dry and needs a cut before tomorrow's game. Nice to see the supporters out now that at 90 minutes you don't wonder if your toes are still there. Well May....interesting it certainly is.
On 20 Apr 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Beautiful day yesterday perfect for gardening, blue sky fab sunshine a nice breeze and some great cumulus cloud watching, lots sowed in the tunnel so hopefully we will catch up soon, no asparagus as yet but Rhubarb is starting to take off. Max yesterday 18/19 deg. Cool 4 or 5 deg to start with & some fog this morn. Mix of cloud and sunshine but more blue sky as the morning progressing, quick homemade banana shake then off out to do some more in the garden. Enjoy the 🌞 all. Well forecasted Piers 👍
On 20 Apr 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
29C recorded here yesterday in NW London, confirmed by official reading at Northolt Airport 3 miles away. Wall to wall sunshine yesterday and today. First asparagus stalk espied this morning, 20th April: latest date here since 2013. Pear tree now with open flowers, flowers also on cherry, leaves and buds opening on apples and plum. Soil temp now up to 14C at 6 inches depth, well Ok for planting out veg. Grass finally cut on 18th April after a few days drying out. First rhubarb, chard and sorrel harvested. Radishes and turnips sowing well through and growing well, first thinning yesterday. Onions and onion sets set out yesterday. Parsnip seedlings just emerging. Biggest casaulty was broad beans, growing too much in mild January and big plants killed by March snow/frost. Sowing in January, planting out in Feb may be the best option to avoid this in future, as small plants are frost resistant.
Overall, familial famine unlikely barring further damaging frosts.....
On 19 Apr 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
PADDY: chill has gone here and tree seed germinating, especially stuff from Sakhalin and PNW. Other stuff behind. This time last year most of the big Norway Maple were in flower, but zilch this year. Nice when we get this pleasant stuff, but the cold ain't done with us yet.
On 19 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, bright start to a fabulously warm day, 21˚ in April is pretty good going for our latitude. Strong SW’ly wind taking the edge off the warmth a bit, amazing cirrus clouds and drying, drying at last, so much so that the dust is beginning to swirl. Still 11˚ at 9pm, clear sky with a waxing crescent of the moon in the west, an almost balmy evening. We’ll no doubt be paying for that soon; on this occasion I would prefer if Piers was wrong :-)
On 19 Apr 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Each day warmer than the last. Thames-side pubs doing very well last evening. I have noted the temp drop coming in the models and won't be turning off the heating just yet. The thermostat keeps it off when not needed at the moment. It is very strange not being glued to twitter to see if tonight's match will be going ahead. They might even have needed to water the pitch stop it becoming too bobbly. Is the 45d forecast out as I can't see it on my forecasts list?
On 19 Apr 2018, Steve Devine wrote:
Can I just say "Kudos to Piers" for his April forecast? All subscribers with access to this should read the headline then reflect on what a cold start we've had to the month, followed by this 4 day mini-heatwave, which in turn could be followed by a chilly NW'ly blast next week if the GFS verifies. April has been winter > summer > winter/spring in that order. Bang on the money Piers.
On 18 Apr 2018, Lorraine// wrote:
Lorraine// winter clothes packed away 27 degrees in London tomorrow has it ever topped that in April mind you I am going on the Celtic calendar from now on May 1st first day of summer 21st June mid summer end of summer 1st August it makes sense
On 18 Apr 2018, Andy B 45D sub SE Wales wrote:
Must have May 45D extremily interesting
On 18 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, cloudy and still with a fresh S’ly wind though less strong than yesterday, drizzle for a couple of hours before midday but then brightening and warming to 18˚ max, spring now seems underway, 8˚ at 10pm.
On 18 Apr 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Yesterday continued wet and blustery during the morning after a very windy night, managed to get some washing on the line in the afternoon but didn't dry great as was still on the damp cool side. Overcast this morning clearing quickly to give a nice sunny albeit blustery day, washing blowing off the line but with perseverance its def. drying!-) Couple of hours to myself in the tunnel sowing seeds very warm with one door open but happy out to be outside. 17deg. With a real feel of 15 deg. Lots of green here n there now popping out and yay grass is finally growing only one cut so far.
On 18 Apr 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Warm it most certainly is today. Lovely sunshine and as it was so warm this morning that even in the short time my CH runs in the morning it turned off. On the train it was actually nice when the aircon kicked in. Sun beaming down and it is 73F in town. The Mail has the 'heatwave' story today. will the R5 cause any change? Iceagenow has note of a Guardian article on the problems facing farmers at the moment.
On 18 Apr 2018, Lorraine// wrote:
Lorraine// no sign of swallows have known them till be well arrived by now in previous years. Ah my sea temp guernsey was wrong last time I posted it should have been 9 degrees something as it’s 10 today- but average for the time of year Guernsey anyway 10 is cold
On 18 Apr 2018, Lorraine// wrote:
Lorraine// no sign of swallows have known them till be well arrived by now in previous years. Ah my sea temp guernsey was wrong last time I posted it should have been 9 degrees something as it’s 10 today- but average for the time of year Guernsey anyway 10 is cold
On 17 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, rain again overnight so a wet start but clearing up by 10 and turning into a warm and sunny day with a strong S’ly wind, max temp 18˚, though feeling a bit cooler on the exposed site where we are planting trees at the moment. We had to go out and saw a number of farmers sowing, and remarked again on how quickly things had dried after two consecutive nights of rain - what looked hopeless yesterday is suddenly viable again today. 10˚ at 9pm.
On 17 Apr 2018, Gerry, 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
In my view things are running about 6 weeks late. This weekend the magnolia only came into full flower. This time last year the flowers were long gone and the developing green leaves were about to be wiped out by two nights of hard frost. As Paddy has said, at this time things are drying out quite fast. The fields are looking drier but still with isolated puddles. Office talk is of heatwave coming and GFS is showing that. GEM disagrees. And Spaceweather is talking about the huge coronal hole that is coming round to face us on the spotless sun. It is very pleasant but not as warm yet as it was on Saturday. Maria - pleased to hear that the little one is doing well and enjoying the outdoor life.
On 16 Apr 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Ps is this stormy spell R5 a couple of days early maybe? Weather seems to be bumping all over the place again hang on tight here we go again 😅
On 16 Apr 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Saturday was a good dry day a little windy and the odd break in cloud before ominous grey clouds moved on in still on the cool side but a bit milder though dropping cold by nightfall. I managed to get out with the kids and we got some jobs done, ps Gerry she is "growing" so much super amazing 😂 Sunday not so nice with showers and wind getting worse into today and tonight gusty and raining with a yellow status rain and wind warning in place stormy ole night pressure has dropped and feels cool again atm.
On 16 Apr 2018, Andy (Chilterns) wrote:
Spring has arrived here now with trees in bud and golf course starting to become less muddy. I’m pretty sure we are at least 3 weeks behind last year
On 16 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, remnants overnight rain still going on for a little while, slowly clearing up to sun breaking out by 11, pleasant SW’ly breeze all day, 16˚ max and feeling lovely in the sun, 8˚ at 9pm.
On 16 Apr 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Spring appears to be in full swing now in Austria and this week will see Switzerland have warm and sunny weather like here in UK. Lecht and Glenshee ski resorts done for the season and snow walking rapidly uphill on the Scottsh mountains. Freezing Levels regularly above the tops now. Snow into May at Cairngorm and Glencoe not unheard of, but car park at Cairngorm now well below the snowline. Funicular down will soon be de rigeur, if it is not already. The flat plateau at Cairngorm summit is already snow free. Still plenty of huge cornices around the highland and several corries are still chock full of snow.
So the full Scottish winter was mid January to mid April, with early snow late Nov/early Dec melting again. How deep snow is in the gullies, who knows, but I doubt all year snow patch records will be beaten based on current imagery, even though it is odds on that several to plenty will survive all summer.
On 15 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, beautiful morning turning into a beautiful, if milky day with clouds bubbling up gradually, max temp 15˚ and a rather cooler than yesterday SE’ly wind bringing moisture off the sea which explains the milkiness. Got rather foggy by evening, unsurprisingly, 6˚by 9.30pm. Re farmers: we only saw someone applying fertiliser to grass, otherwise brown ploughed fields abound, I don’t think anyone round here has been able to sow, even with a one pass drill. Russ, it seemed to us that a hawthorn hedge we drove past this morning had actually burst into leaf a few hours later when we passed it again on our way back home. Yes, Gerry, it is amazing how quickly it can dry up now, sometimes in the space of a few days you can see the dust swirling off roads & tracks, certainly hope so.
On 15 Apr 2018, Andy B 45D sub SE Wales wrote:
I have been following a Canadian farmer on twitter and I asked him what the cut off date for planting spring wheat was? His reply was although they are abot3/4 weeks behind planting May 20th was the latest they could plant with some of the quick maturing varieties that they have.
On 15 Apr 2018, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:
Lovely day yesterday with temps into the 60s so it was t-shirt for working outside trimming trees. The magnolia is out, tulips just out, plums coming into blossom, as is the blackthorn. I am amazed at how after squelching around in the garden one evening last week it is so much drier and firmer already. Talking to a local farmer at Friday Farm Shop drinking, he shook his head at the idea of being able to plant any time soon. Still at least it is not like the farms of Saskatchewan where their fields are under a few inches of snow at what should be planting time. The Dakotas have been hit with blizzards and there were many warnings for other states and we are halfway through April! Sunny yesterday with hardly any wind. Overcast but bright so far today with a light breeze.
On 15 Apr 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Walking in sheltered valley yesterday and the sun was out for the most part causing leaves to burst open almost in a panic. I reckon if we sat and watched, we would see them opening. So stuff is starting to look greenish. Daffs have been open here too Ron but sheltered town sites a week or so in front, where some rural sites are only just blooming. Same as last year the stalks are stunted, sometimes half the expected size. A few farmers starting to prepare the ground for seeding.
On 14 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, brighter and feeling mild, turning into wow! what a change, sunny all day with a max temp of 18˚ (highest so far this year) and a SW’ly breeze, enormous change from yesterday. Still 8˚ at 9pm, next thing you’ll know, spring will be here. Maybe.
On 13 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30 light rain, E’ly breeze. Rain stopped around 9am and didn’t come back but it remained grey and overcast all day, max temp 7˚, fog by early evening, quite thick and blanketing everything in a film of water, 5˚ by 9pm, welcome to Dreichshire! == Andy, our son was in Corby and Manchester, it was mainly hawthorn he was talking about, daffs all out where with us they were just starting.
On 13 Apr 2018, theguvnor wrote:
Misty drizzly weather here in BANES (Cuba as it is now known-County that used to be Avon) as it has been for days preceded by weeks of much rain making dog walks very slippery under foot. Local TV suggesting our farmers are about 4 weeks in backlog and haven't seeded yet due to flooded ground. The ground also not suitable for animal grazing as it churns up too much thus requiring barns to be used for shelter. This has resulted in more demand for hay and feed and caused shortages on some farms requiring Fodder Relief to be set up for those with surplus to supply those short. I spoke to local bulder who doesn't think it has been abnormally wet here but suggests that he would only really be affected if it rained during the day which he hasn't noticed so perhaps its all falling at night? Anyone have data for this? Cheers
On 13 Apr 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
You have already got your new arrival sowing seeds, Maria???? Well I have heard of starting them young..... The tunnel under the North Downs from Oxted goes uphill - you can tell by the sound of the diesels on the up line compared to them coasting on the down line - so you arrive in the valley of Woldingham where it has been misty and murky most mornings this week. The top of the Shard has been missing a lot - not a good week to have booked to see the view from the top. Clearer today but not warm yet. Drove to a different station this morning and there is still one full width deep flood over the road. The other three are now one-sided large pools of water. Hoping for a dry weekend to work outside and to make sure our football pitch can take the final 3 games of the season.
On 13 Apr 2018, Maria (Ireland sub ) wrote:
The last 2 weeks have been mostly cool & overcast following the few nice days we had at the start of first few days of the kids Easter holidays, their 2nd week off consisted of rain wind and hail on occasions inline with Piers forecast, dreary cool to end and continued that way this week with a few drizzly showers at times, the last 2 days a little milder but still overcast not as warm & nice wed. & Thurs. as Met suggested and well almost wordless weather ☺ used the delayed warmth and sun to get growing tunnel ready cleaned plastic and improved soil ordered seeds and generally spent quality time with kids & staring in awe at our beautiful lil one, ready now to have them all out with me on a massive catch up seed sowing session and get productive to hopefully grow some healthy food, everyone here talking of a hot May and June so we will try and be organised and hope it gets warmer soon.
On 13 Apr 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Visited Devon for a few days last weekend and the buds are opening on most trees but the amount of rain and chilly temperatures were a shock. Driving across the Weymouth and Taunton areas on Tuesday morning, the floods and standing water were an adventure to say the least. Oop north we have only just teased the Hawthorns to start leafing up. Everything else is sat waiting. Around 6C yesterday and Wet Office suggested it would feel like 2C. I'll go along with that after walking the dog in fog and drizzle, both wearing waterproofs. That wind made it feel more typical of mid February!
On 12 Apr 2018, Andy ( Chilterns) wrote:
I don’t know where your son was visiting in England Paddy but in our area there is very little budding greenery yet. Two foggy days with temperature not getting above 8 deg here
On 12 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚ at 7.30, dry and fairly bright, sunny morning with clouds blowing in off the N Sea in a strong ESE’ly wind which later turned into the NE. Cloudy afternoon with a bit of drizzle for a short while, 5˚ at 9.30pm. We still have a lot of trees to plant on a bit that is at last getting landscaped, so I’m not too unhappy about the late spring as they are all bare rooted plants and no leaves are visible yet. == Thank you for your concern, Gerry :-). Ron, the Al Gore downhill trophy: priceless!
On 12 Apr 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Scottish ski centres now saying skiing conditions will last into May. Wonder who will win the Al Gore downhill trophy?
On 12 Apr 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
I was concerned that Paddy was getting lonely here. Well after the warmest day it has certainly got much cooler. No thoughts of turning the heating off just yet. A lot of low cloud and gloom around mixed in with some sunny spells. While the magnolia near the guildhall is out mine are still just edging they way out and might just make it by the weekend. I was hopeful of getting some cherry plums but not seeing any sign of any fruit set now the blossom has gone. The medlar is an early starter and is coming out in leaf before the plums, apples and pears have barely stirred. Spotted 2 fields of rape in flower from the train this morning. Daffodils are fully out and tulips are not far off.
On 11 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, dull but not raining, sharp ESE’ly wind which kept going all day, milky sunshine for the whole morning, max temp 11˚, thicker cloud in the afternoon and still dry, 6˚ at 10pm. Dry prospect for tomorrow but deluge again on Friday according to Vimtobeeb.
On 11 Apr 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Interesting article alert.... >> https://bit.ly/2qpDCU5 <<
On 11 Apr 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Rhys - C View ... One word dudes - spikes! Rhys...it's not just the highs and lows which show the changes when these snow hits occur. The 1962-3 snow was just before solar minimum and during a very rapid decline. If you look at a graph showing solar cycle spikes, you'll see that the 1981 and 1991 snows came around the time that the sun spot number suddenly dipped, shown by sharp notches in the graphs. So it seems the rapid decline is just as important, if not more so, than the overall number when sudden changes in weather occur. So maybe a smooth decline over several years doesn't give our weather systems the hiccup required to cause deep snowfall? Look at the details on the graphs and try to match them up with your snow dates and I'll bet you see rapid changes in spot numbers. Minor details are often overlooked when trying to understand the bigger picture. Don't look at the smoothed lines, look at the individual spikes. Re: Adam Watson 60 years ago it was solar minimum around 1965...
On 11 Apr 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Out of interest, despite the cool March, the spring turnip I sowed on 23rd March have emerged as seedlings, so I suspect scaremongering about famines may be a bit OTT. The 1st April turnip and radish sowings have also emerged. The potatoes I planted in pots mid Feb have lived outdoors since the equinox (bar one night inside when it was frosty) and are loving the damp spring conditions. Potatoes start of May after a Beast from the East end of Feb? Doable at family scale, if not farm scale......
On 10 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, fog, drizzle, E’ly breeze but dry until midday, after which steady rain set in and continued right into the night, max temp 6˚, down to 5˚ by 9.30pm. We seem to be getting one nice day followed by several drench ones, spring is on hold. Our son was down in England visiting family and enjoyed seeing the budding greenery; up here: not a sausage!
On 09 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, clear start followed by a warm sunny morning, max temp 15˚, light SE’ly breeze, cloud moving in afternoon but still nice and warm, 5˚ at 9.30pm with fog.
On 08 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, fairly bright but cloudy & still, though later the sun came out and stayed there until the end of the day and it got very mild, up to 16˚ with us, highest temp so far this year, light N’ly breeze by day’s end, 6˚ at 10pm, no complaints.
On 08 Apr 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
C View
Heavy snow in April is not incredible in Scotland, it just does not happen every year. When I lived in Scotland, I and friends skied Glencoe on 27th April with perfect snow from top station to the top of the access chair. As for avalanche danger in April - absolutely normal. The warming weather causes cornice collapse above steep terrain and wet snow slides on the steeper terrain. Cairngorm just had two days with freezing levels above the summits. Go visit www.sais.gov.uk to get daily reports on avalanche status in six major scottsh regions....
In 1989, when I completed a weekend traverse of the Four Tops (Cairngorm, MacDui, Cairn Toul, Braeriach), snow had fallen down to 1500ft in the middle of June! My early morning trudge from Cairn Toul to Braeriach was on frozen neve! And that winter was one of the mildest on record....
Go read some historical articles by Adam Watson: he describes copious April snow 60 years ago....
On 08 Apr 2018, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:
I would agree with the warmest day so far yesterday - calling it hot is going a bit far. Some good spells of sunshine but some cloud around and in the early evening some spots of rain to herald today's overcast and damp start. The local team actually managed to play only the third home game on our pitch this year yesterday. But it was a win and just one more point confirms promotion. On the roads there is still water draining off from the fields and ditches are still full. Having been off for the last week it will be interesting to see the state of the fields from the train next week. But a good sign that spring is coming is being able to hear the sheep out in the fields in the quiet of the evening. The magnolia flowers are peeping out now so nearly there.
On 07 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, phew, no frost and quite a bright morning with a S’ly breeze and temps rising to 13˚, cloudy afternoon followed by rain in the evening, 7˚ at 9.30pm. Not brilliant spring yet but great that things are warming up.
On 06 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚overnight, 4˚ at 7.30 overcast all day bar a few rays of brightness early afternoon, S’ly wind, no rain until a light shower in the evening, max temp 8˚ nevertheless, but all in complete contrast to yesterday’s shine, 5˚ at 8pm. Not unhappy that spring is late as we have several 100 bare rooted trees yet to plant.
On 06 Apr 2018, Sou'wester, Devon/Cornish border, sub wrote:
"Today is set to be the warmest day of the year" shouts the Daily Mail, while all the comments beneath it are mocking the story. I can report from the mildest part of the UK that it was 45F in my office on arrival this morning, and without the heat on it would likely still be that cold. It's been overcast, with Force 5-6 winds this morning, the sea rough. I would also say that the wind has been biting and cold.. Now where have I seen such a description of the winds for today before, if not from Mr PC?
On 05 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, clear start with a hard ground frost, sunny morning with occasional sheets of cloud moving over but overall a sunny and relatively warm day with a max temp of 10˚ and an occasionally stiff W’ly breeze, 4˚ at 10pm.
On 05 Apr 2018, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:
Sunshine with fluffy white clouds and a breeze. But down to 48F from 54F yesterday. Hoping the rain stays away as I have a ploughing match on Sunday that should have been held on 18 March. A video clip has been posted of the snow covered fields it was due to held in. The magnolia is just starting to show the tips of flowers so about a week away from being out.
On 04 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, sleet & rain off & on all day with a bit of a drier interlude in the middle and a max temp of 3˚, wet & light snow showers all afternoon and a cold NE’ly wind, 2˚ at 9.30pm. Fortunately it didn’t turn out as wet as forecast, looking forward to a sunny day tomorrow. == Ron, we’ve sown the first batch of our hazel on 23rd Feb (in tunnels), not a shoot to be seen yet. And if it wasn’t for the heated propagator there wouldn’t be any lettuce to prick out.
On 04 Apr 2018, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine//sea temperature range Guernsey for April between 8.4 and 11 degrees and it is 8.3 deg so that is very interesting it’s normally about 9.5
On 04 Apr 2018, C View wrote:
Rhys & Russ. Scottish ski centres today reporting up to 50cm fresh snow with larger drifts. Part of Cairngorm area closed due to avalanche risk. Quite incredible for April.
On 04 Apr 2018, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:
A blustery morning with sunny spells 54F. That's the good bit. Wunderground suggests rain from noon until 6pm. Argh! That's all we need with a match tonight. If it stayed like this I am pretty sure we could play but an afternoon of rain. Note that even Nottingham Forest called off a match over the weekend due to waterlogged pitch. All the premier clubs have state of the art heated, drained, aerated, woven pitches that are light years away from the old first division pitches they used when I was at school. Come this time of year they had barely any grass. As it warmed and they dried out they became hard bobbly surfaces. I suppose it helped make the Cup Final special as they played on the pristine Wembley turf.
On 04 Apr 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
First three months of CET data for 2018 bang on the 1961-1990 average. The fourth coldest first quarter this century, behind 2013, 2010 and 2001. So nothing ridiculous, nothing abnormal, nothing noteworthy in central england. Just variability.
Would be interesting to see if Scottish data tells a different story: has anyone tried combining data from Glencoe, Aviemore, Braemar, Huntly, Invergarry, Blairgowrie and the like?
On 04 Apr 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Russ - care to explain away 10 ft piles of snow on both sides of A82 in January 1991 and Glencoe Ski closed April 1994 as the lifts were buried, with widespread snow in the corries of Sgurr nan Gillean on Skye at midsummer that year? I was driving Glasgow Uni minibuses the first time and a car from London to Skye the second time. 1991 not far off solar maximum and 1994 two years shy of 1996 minimum. Remember December 1981 and record low temps and snow in Braemer? Half way between solar minima of 1976 and 1986.
What about the great Alps blizzard cycle of February 1999? Nowhere near solar minimum, but 5.5-7.5 metres of snow fell in a 21 day period.
1962/3, 1981/2, 1998/9 and 2017/18 are closer to 18.6 year solar/lunar cycle.
But plenty of snowy Scottish winters nowhere near solar minimum.
On 04 Apr 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Snowline down to about 200 metres here with occasional sleet. Raw and miserable. Perhaps temperature will get up to normal by the weekend. PADDY: no early flushing of tree seeds this year, though interesting that Sorbus commixta has germinate outside.
On 04 Apr 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Lets see. When did a friend and I tour Scotlands Highlands in a Toyota Hiace taking some lovely snow pics, about a week after the snow so the roads were clear...ish? With 6ft snow banks at the road-sides throughout the Cairngorm region. Ah yes, 26th of March 2008. But wasn't that the last solar minimum, just before the two bad winters with lots of snow? Hehehe! I would give it a year or two for this solar minimum to bite down hard. We may see snow like none of us can ever remember. Prepare or despair people! Just wet here. Wet yesterday, and the day before, and wet again today. Rain, rain go away, come again another day!
On 03 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30 wet snow falling, raw NE’ly wind setting the scene for most of yet another day of unceasing rain, though there was a dryish window from midday to 4pm, max temp 6˚, rain again into the evening, still going now at 9.30pm, 3˚, tomorrow looks like Noah’s fludde. Not sure about spring by the weekend, Ron, but Thursday looks warm-ish and sunny.
On 03 Apr 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Obviously just on the cusp here and there has been an overnight snow fall giving a dusting. Just a few miles away at Rannoch there's at least 10-15 cm. Spring by the weekend?
On 02 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, frost on the ground, cloudy with a NE’ly breeze but followed by a morning with sunny intervals, quite warm at times with a max of 8˚, no more sun in the afternoon, the wind changing into the E, heavy snow shower at 6.30pm and more of them later on, fluffy dry stuff, 1˚ at 10pm. == Bill S, wow, braving the N Sea at Easter this year would most likely have gotten you into A&E with hypothermia :-) Thinking of pictures of the 20s when Aberdeen beach was chock full of bathers in summer.
On 02 Apr 2018, Bill S (N E Wales) wrote:
So the early snow turned to rain by 0730 and remained drizzly cold and thoroughly dreich this morning Temps crept to 2c by lunch timeAnother wet pulse of rain all afternoon making this the wettest day since mid November. Temperature rising this evening as the rain clears, 8. 3 c at 2000hrs . Quite a contrast from the winters scene this morning. Is it just me or were the Easter’s of childhood late 60s early 70s so much better:-dry outdoor picnics at the beach , rolling eggs on the bents ( does anyone do that now?) braving the sea. ( and all this on
the Aberdeenshire coast).
On 02 Apr 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
had about half an hour of small- flake sleety snow, then turned to rain here at 140 metres in Highland Perthshire. Sharp frost this morning. Very few daffodils out yet and yes PADDY it's the kind of Easter I remember and one of the coldest springs since 2013.
On 02 Apr 2018, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:
I have daffodils and pansies out, bluebells producing leaves but the magnolia remains asleep. Not cold here but wet, oh yes, plenty of rain. Luckily the football was on a 3g pitch with 2 more games after ours. Halftime talk was about the game on Wednesday and where it could be played, and of clubs with 8 games to play in 4 weeks or be fined if not played. The logic of that escapes me as the clubs don't have much money and aren't trying not to play the games. GWPF site has latest sea surface temps and in HasSST3 it is down all the way. Tropics leading the southern hemisphere with the NH on plateau. Graph shows anomaly to Jan 2015 and the tropics not far off going negative. The sun has gone blank again with the one spot snuffing out not rotating round.
On 02 Apr 2018, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:
Heavy early morning snow settled, now melting at a rapid rate in heavy rain. Big chunks of snow sliding off roofs etc. Very wet and any daffs look battered under the weight of snow and rain.
On 02 Apr 2018, BillS (NE Wales) wrote:
Heavy Rain turned to heavy snow for last hour or so. Temperature now down at 0 c with several cm at 0630.Already had 10mm rain equivalent overnight. Hopefully turn back to rain as it gets lighter.
On 01 Apr 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-2˚C at 7.30, coldest Easter temp for quite a number of years, dusting of snow which disappeared steadily though as we had a cracking sunny day with a max temp of 9˚ and a light breeze that turned from the NW into the SW, lots of fair weather cumulus clouds that increased in size over time and had increasingly dark bottoms but no showers occurred, such a relief to have a bit of sun. 2˚ at 10pm. == Next blue moon year will be 2020.
On 01 Apr 2018, Sou'wester (Devon/Cornwall border) sub wrote:
Gerry, I've seen a number of magnolia trees in early flower for the last few days. The daffodils have been perplexing me, though - they keep stopping and starting, and have been doing this for over two months. Each time they are in full bloom, snow or deluges later cover them - they disappear, then are back in full bloom again, as if in a time warp. Some cherry blossom out, tulip buds looking about to burst open for a couple of weeks now, but haven't. Lovely rop of primroses this year still in bloom.. Werd.
Shouldn't be happening all together.
On 01 Apr 2018, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:
Happy Easter to all. Although it was a nice day yesterday with only a short spell of rain early evening as a band passed across it was not enough to save the football. I think the ducks refused to stop swimming on the pitch. Having moved to plastic - that much maligned material at the moment - to get tomorrow's match played, we try again at home on Wednesday night. Overcast today, little wind, 48F at noon. Report on Iceagenow from Italy on coming food shortages as their fields are too wet to plant ready for June harvesting. Advantage of a Robin nesting on the patio is some lovely evening singing outside the study window. The nest was built weeks ago and having seen food taken in I think the female may be on the eggs. Last year the magnolia was coming into leaf in April so that it was devastated by the two nights of frost late in the month. Not even close to flowering so far this year.
On 01 Apr 2018, RichardW Lanarkshire 200m ASL wrote:
Some flakes of snow on the ground here this morning - expecting more tomorrow. Looking back we had snow as late as 21st March last year - I failed to get to work that day to stuck cars. Been here in Scotland for 17 winters now; I can't remember a period like that since Christmas where it has been pretty consistently cold, and the snow has just kept coming in waves.
On 31 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, overcast with a cold E’ly wind but no rain, max temp 4˚, some sleet showers in the afternoon, graupel snow in the evening, 1˚ at 9.30pm. == March was the second Blue Moon month this year!
On 31 Mar 2018, BillS (NE Wales) wrote:
Yesterday’s spring like afternoon gave way to a wet evening which continued throughout the night. A cold wet morning and dull damp afternoon. This months total rain 84 mm , this is on the high side for this rain shadow NEWales. Fields all waterlogged daffodils twisted and stumpy , the cold doesn’t help in this stop start attempt at spring, it feels about a month behind at the moment
On 31 Mar 2018, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
ALSO THANKS FOR SPRING OBS! Compare with last year and 2013 if you can. Field-grown-Asparagus-ready-for-market was 5 weeks late in 2013 (hence I won the competition on that and got boxes of asparagus! Normal date is St Georges Day April 23). Different plants and animals - birds - have different sensitivities to cold/warm. It appears asparagus is very sensitive whereas some other living things don't shift much. Also some depend more on light and others on ground temp (eg asparagus i daresay). Reminder - Subscribe pronto!!
On 31 Mar 2018, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
CITIZENS BREAKING NEWS! I've put a *6-for-1* =83%OFF TRIAL OFFERS ON THE www.WeatherAction.com for 12m of TheWholeLOT and For 12m of BI+Eu 45d; as well as various 50-75%OFF. So if you want it go and get it. Overlaps with existing subs get forecast credit. See twitter for notes on weather going on. Nice to see bbc, MetO, AccuW, GFS, ECMWF all backtracking on their relaively benign forecasts for easter period and moving towards ours which has more snow and cold blast in North UK+Eire. Maybe tell this to someone you know who needs to know and get them to subscribe! Thanks Piers
On 31 Mar 2018, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:
You wonder at times how the clouds manage to store so much water. Flooded roads, flooded fields, roadside lakes (we left puddles far behind), flooded garden. Still, with the power of diesel I splashed my way to our farmshop for some Good Friday ale and good conversation. A perfect summation on Twitter yesterday was that all tier 6 grass pitch clubs will have their heads in their hands as more postponements come with little time left to play. My team have 4 home games in 8 days with promotion at stake. Easter Monday game moved to a plastic pitch already. Pitch inspection today. And on Twitter again a classic comment 'no rain overnight and a complete change of forecast for the day'! Presumably much different to yesterday's forecast and so much for their forecasting ability. It is dry with some sunny spells but some threatening grey clouds and a reasonable 50F without yesterday's cold easterly wind.
On 30 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, dull but not raining until about 10, then unceasing precipitation right through, including sleet, max temp 5˚, relentless ESE’ly wind, 2˚ again by 9pm, in a word: dreich, typical Good Friday/Easter weather, agreed, Ron?
On 30 Mar 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
a dusting of snow this morning and sky looking ominous for more. Noticed frogs spawning at Dalwhinnie on the 28th about 10 days later than last year.
On 29 Mar 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Cold to start with ice in places but again some nice spring like sunny spells, cloudier this aft. Almost sleety v.brief bit of precip. towards eve. chilly 3 deg at 11pm
On 29 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, ground frost under a clear sky but soon clouding over, dry morning with a max temp of 7˚, wind mostly E’ly and cold, especially in the heavy showers in the afternoon, 2˚ at 9.30pm and snowing, ah well… == No swallows, Lorraine? For us that is still a distant dream, a good 5 weeks away.
On 29 Mar 2018, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// no swallows yet March 29 2018
On 29 Mar 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Nothing very warm in the latest GFS run until after 11th April
On 29 Mar 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Cold and frosty this morning and heating working the whole time slot this morning. V wet on arriving home last night and while at London Bridge there was a light sleet shower. Cloud has now produced some showers. Sun on another long spotless run. Without our modern enhanced view, the spotless days would be even higher given that the last sunspot was very small and would probably not have been seen in the past. Mail has piece on delay in nature due to cold.
On 29 Mar 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
looks like another spring cracker with bright blue skies and a sharp frost. Will our daffodils be out by Easter? Vimtobeeb now grudgingly admitting( weel last night anyway) that we are going to stay in the coll sector of the current jet stream disposition.
On 28 Mar 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Cooler today & although some brief sunny spells this morning cloud moved across with a shower or 2 hail also on one occasion. Max 6/7 deg 2 now at 11.38pm No doughnuts this week Gerry back to being good:)
On 28 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, rain finally stopped, had been continuous through the night and heavy at times. Grey & cold morning with a NW’ly wind, some brightness from midday and in the afternoon but also some very heavy showers, max temp 8˚, dry evening, 2˚ at 10pm. Plus ça change…
On 28 Mar 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Just been up to Dalwhinnie, reportedly the coldest inhabited village in the UK, with a Koppen climate classification almost the same as Bronnoysund in coastal Norway ( CFC). It lies at just over 1000ft and is surrounded by hills of 2000-3000ft. It was a scene of classic boreal beauty with snow capped slopes, a cool wind, but a special quality of quite warm sunlight that at this time of year almost has a pastel affect on the scenery. There was the odd spatter of pellet snow in the breeze, but other wise a brilliant solar minimum spring day. I wonder how long the snow will lie in the gullies this year?
On 28 Mar 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Rain overnight and into the morning to flood the fields yet again. Dried up now and the sun is coming through. Warmer this morning such that in the short time the CH runs in the morning it actually reached shut off temp. Rhys - yes, nature is a good guide. Cherry plum still in blossom, magnolia yet to flower, very little sign of activity on apple trees. Hearing a lot of Blackbird singing at the moment. Drumming from woodpeckers too. Fish still not very active and on winter food. Keep up with the doughnuts, Marie, don't want you flagging now.
On 27 Mar 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Had a few good dry days consisting of feeding baby followed by running outside and hitting a job that needed doing and rinse n repeat, up at 6 a.m after 4- 5 hrs sleep then breakfast big mug of tea and off again, clocks do mess you up when already on little sleep but nothing like a light frost to wake ye up and feel less guilty consuming the 2000 cals needed to feed the lil one when working harder. Rain overnight and a bit windy outside though sunny at times this morn. cloud encroached again and some light showers then dry and showers n wind again this eve. April showerish max 10 dropping this aft. & 4 now at 11pm.. // For sure Paddy everyone needs some of that :)
On 27 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30 and for the whole day, wall to wall rain all day with a strong breeze from a SSE’ly direction, feeling raw after the last three days of spring sun, back to dreich as in November, oh well. == Piers, I already live with permanent BST as get up early every day, can’t get up any earlier :-) == Rhys, observing various plant growth phenomena is the best indicator of early or late, I also listen to when songbirds start singing, chaffinches have started in mid February for many years but this year they were later. 2013 was also a very late spring but followed by the last good summer we had, here’s hoping for a repeat performance!
On 27 Mar 2018, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
CITIZENS RESPONSE HAS BEEN VERY SLOW. So a Repeat Ad:- HURRY-BUY - AMAZING UP TO 75%OFF on all sorts of forecasts 45d, 30d and TheWholeLOT AND ALL-SPRING-NOW (Br+Ir) IS ONLY £20. All in NewSpringDeal FOR PRESENT. Go to link on =>=>www.WeatherAction.com<=<= and do it - Save money now - PASS IT ON. This is a temporary offer, so earliest is bestest! Thank you. End of Existing subs is start of new sub / any overlaps get pro-rata extension of forecast subs duration.
On 27 Mar 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
A much less scientific gardening approach to spring temperatures:
1) When does the grass need its first cut? For me, this coincides with getting some horse manure/straw to build some 1 cubic metre compost piles. Last year I did this on the equinox, this year nowhere near cutting the grass - could be mid-April.
2) When does comfrey get first cut? Last year, this was April 9th, this year the first shoots are currently just emerging, so late April or early May is likely first cut date.
3) When do the first leaves appear on apple trees? Last year, March 27th. No signs yet in 2018.
4) When does blossom first appear on pear trees? Last year, 23rd March, this year only a couple of buds have already started to open.
Nature's signals say spring 2018 is running up to a month behind 2017.
On 26 Mar 2018, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
CITIZENS HURRY HURRY HURRY BUY BUY BUY - AMAZING UP TO 75%OFF on all sorts of forecasts 45d, 30d and TheWholeLOT AND ALL-SPRING-NOW IS ONLY £20 in NewSpringDeal FOR PRESENT. Go to link on www.WeatherAction.com and do it - Save money now - PASS IT ON =+=+=+= ClockChanges! Mike, Paddy if you just want "BST" all year you could just get up earlier. The problem with shifting all an hour is that after a while for various reasons things like work-times slide the other way and then someone says lets shift by another hour so after a while we have day when its night. We have a solar time namely GMT that is the natural time, anyone can get up early or late if they want. Clock changes are absurd unnecessary stress, my twitter poll has got 75-80% agreeing at present. All best Pieers
On 26 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, clear as a bell, light ground frost, sunny morning but with increasing amounts of flat bottomed clouds moving in, though no showers today. Max temp 12˚, WNW’ly breeze gradually turning into the S, 1˚ at 10pm, moonlight & clear sky, frost on car roof already. == M Lewis: contrary to your expectations I would be happy to keep BST all year, when the clocks go back in autumn and it gets dark an hour early it’s a real pain, I get more irritated at that than the spring change. == Maria, we appear to have international harmony between us :-)
On 26 Mar 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
What a backtrack on the cold weather predicted by standard models for Scotland/NE England on both early evening forecasts.
On 26 Mar 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Pleasant weekend with it not too cool. the clock change yesterday allowed me to work later and while pruning a rose I could see a beautiful red ball descending behind the trees. I have to admit that I always enjoy the later daylight on the Continent in Summer but you will never get total agreement. When will the MetO be announcing the warmest evah March. The GWPF have been complaining about the BBC mangling the truth on temperature as usual. The sheer front of the BBC to think it can take the moral high ground on fake news along with its newspaper the Guardian when both are the home of fake news. Sunny today so far but a bit of cloud come early PM. 52F in the City. My gas use this March as opposed to last year shows clearly how much colder it has been as nothing has changed with the heating. Don't think April 1 will be turnoff day this year.
On 26 Mar 2018, Steve Devine wrote:
Provision March temps update from SW Essex. Currently daytime temps averaged 8.2c (down from 13c March 2017) and night time temps averaged 2.9c (down from 6.7c in March 2017). March 2013 still coldest in recent years averaging 5.7c by day and 0c by night. Looks like the Beast from the East Mk III will only affect NE England & Scotland if the models are to be trusted (yeah, right) then hints of Spring next week, but I don't buy it.
On 26 Mar 2018, eastside wrote:
Back to the easterly air stream again.
A low came over and dumped 6" of fresh powder snow on us this morning. BAck to shovelling yet again!
Now it's off into Russia SPB region, and the cold came back, with down to -15C at night.
Quite interesting to see the high stratus clouds after the low came over going west>east, while at ground level and low levels the strong breeze is going east>west.
A procession of artic lows are now heading for Scandinavia/Finland/Baltic states & N Russia.
It's clear the SSW event of February has disturbed the normal pattern of circulation in the north western hemisphere, with clear disruption in the western siberian area.
Prediction is an unusually cold APRIL after this snowy March.
On 26 Mar 2018, M Lewis wrote:
RE: Clock Change. I'm glad we have British Summer Time and the clocks go forward 1 hour. It gives people extra time / daylight to do tasks in the evening such as gardening and we can also enjoy the outdoors when we get home eg. go for a walk or to the pub or eat al fresco. Personally, I would keep BST all year - although I expect Paddy and Ron and most of Scotland would complain bitterly.
On 26 Mar 2018, Bill S ( N E Wales) wrote:
Beautiful day Sunday enjoying a long walk with the dog Sunny throughout with a light nw wind. Temps peaking at 11c from a chilly 2c early on. Today dawns with clear sky and temperature just 1C at 0630.
On 25 Mar 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
"Same weather again as Paddy :) " agree stupid clock change..
On 25 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, good frost but disappearing fast in the sunshine, really bright morning with lots of blue sky but flat bottomed shower clouds started appearing by midday and we had an occasional light shower, max temp 12˚ with a WNW’ly breeze that was cool enough, more clouds in the afternoon though still a bright end to the day, 4˚c at 8.30pm. w#rkf%$ing! clock change, gets my goat twice a year.
On 25 Mar 2018, Davud ( Yorkshire) Sub wrote:
Spring has sprung - Thank god for that. Done a bit of tidying in the garden. Light pruning etc. Seen the first bumble bee. Daffodils starting to flower. Feels barmy at 12 degrees.
On 25 Mar 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Vimtobeeb now struggling a bit with the mild/cold air battle, but going for a Scandinavian outbreak of cold NE winds later in the week, especially for the northern half of Britain. GFS on the other hand is NOT going for a very severe spell, though there is an easterly element in their predictions. How will it pan out? Expect rapid changes in standard model predictions--what a farce.
On 25 Mar 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
What a difference an equinox makes! No sun-spots, a half moon and an equinox quench the thirst of the massive coronal holio. Certainly some brain effects noticed due to odd behaviour by work colleagues and drivers on the roads. Just call it extra-tetchy. Going off on one for the slightest reason. You could call it male PMT - similar symptoms anyway. Plus people driving like pure nutcases. We've had rain but not much and obly light. The thunderstorms and hail that the wet-office predicted didn't materialise anywhere near us. Everything just fizzled out and stabilised over the past week, from wet and windy to just chilly, damp, sunny, bit drizzly etc. A perfect (normal?) transition from March winds to April showers as is usual over the equinox, stability followed by change. Not in every single case since the dawn of man, before anyone jumps on me and demands facts. I relay only what I have observed from NE Derbyshire over the past 60 years. Milton Keynes may be very different..who knows!
On 24 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, slight ground frost in places, cloudy but bright and then turning into an amazingly sunny day, albeit with a rather cool W’ly breeze. Nevertheless, a picnic lunch on the banks of the Dee was on the cards, max temp 12˚, and tomorrow is apparently going to be as good, so some parts of spring are here for the time being, thrushes singing full throat. 3˚ at 10pm.
On 24 Mar 2018, Bill S ( N E Wales) wrote:
Drizzly and cool first off. Cloudy ‘til early afternoon with sun coming through mid afternoon to lift the temps from a chilly 5 to a pleasant 10c this afternoon. Light winds throughout . Eventually a pleasant change from last weeks cold. Will it last to Easter?
On 24 Mar 2018, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Our daffodils have been hit by frost and snow but have bounced back up each time they have been covered in global warming, it was a shame that the early part of winter was so mild as they were early this year only to be caught out, shame I cannot post a photo they really look wonderful. Mild today with drizzle.
On 23 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, light rain which continued off & on all morning in a strong SW’ly wind which eventually turned into the NW and got quite fierce in the afternoon, but the sun made all the difference after midday, we got a max temp of 12˚ and by 6pm the wind abated, hazy moon at 9.30pm with a cool 3˚. No daffs here either, Ron, though when taken into the house they open quite quickly, just waiting for a little warmth.
On 23 Mar 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Started cloudy with odd spot of rain but by arrival in town it was sunny. Warmed up to 55F at 2pm in the City. The Mail this morning has more freezing weather for Easter and a second period later in the month.
On 23 Mar 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
oops, Vimtobeeb now returning to the cold Easter theme. Oh well, the skiers will be happy. No early daffodils here this year, unlike the last couple of years
On 22 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, dry & bright morning with cirrostratus covering, some real sunny breaks and warming up to a max of 15˚, warmest so far this year, SW’ly breeze, afternoon somewhat cooler, 6˚ at 10pm.
On 22 Mar 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Nice day with lots of sun but at 2pm only 43F in the City. Still warmer than many places in Europe and at the moment snow-free but next month....?
On 21 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C overnight, 3˚ at 7.30, cloudy but bright and no wind, rain by 10am with SW’ly wind picking up, dry again by midday and turning really mild with a max of 11˚, highest so far this year, 8˚ at 10pm, positively balmy compared with recent temps. Easter with us is always cold, don’t remember ever having a warm one.
On 21 Mar 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Vimtobeeb now backtracking on Easter mini beast. GFS still going for it, though looks NE.
On 21 Mar 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Still some patches of snow around on trip to Berkshire yesterday but nice and sunny in the afternoon when doing some on site training. Attended a football match that ended in disappointment but was much warmer than watching last game in the snow. Still a cold start today as phone said 28F at 6.45 rising to 30F by 7.15. However sun is getting warm now so by leaving time the sun had melted windscreen frost. Been a lovely day in town but with a wind, only up to 45F. Ron - you need to be careful what you say as down my way 'dogging' has quite a different meaning. Surrey leads the way apparently.
On 21 Mar 2018, Steve Devine wrote:
We live in an electric universe Maria :-)
On 21 Mar 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Steve I've had that with the family outdoors cat and once he even warned me off as he knew it was going to happen again!-) Worse one I had was off of a fork when eating 😬 Eldest daughter in college doing I.T and she's always getting them off computers, next daughter at primary school and everytime we went to hug goodbye one morning we got shocked her school jumper helping it along no doubt, our son doesn't seem to get them like his dad then our newborn she has twice with middle daughter and once her hair stood up on end 😂
On 21 Mar 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
If memory serves me right, it's statistically more likely to be a white Easter in the UK than a white Xmas. I certainly remember in my school holidays at Easter fishing in the snow on the Clyde and Leven. I've felt that this winter-spring period has been more like what I remember in the late 1950s-60s than anything since 2010 and 2013. My tree seeds and seedlings are behaving normally instead of the dreaded early flush, pending a late frost.
On 21 Mar 2018, Steve Devine wrote:
Well all this talk of a charged atmosphere culminated in me getting a static shock off my DOG earlier today! That's a first lol!
March temperatures are very suppressed so far on 21st of the month with daytime temperatures averaging just 7.8c by day and 3.2c by night from 1st-21st. The last March this cold was in 2013 when daytime temps averaged 5.7c! Let's not forget that Feb 2018 was the coldest since Feb 2010.
Now we appear to be in a relatively average/mild(ish) week ahead with the GFS stubbornly progging a remarkable third Beast From The East from Good Friday onwards. Even the ECMWF has come on board. Snow expected predominantly to higher ground but some eastern regions could get a rude awakening. We may have just passed the Spring Equinox but no one gave Mother Nature the memo.
Want to know more about the non-existent 'Spring' season we're (not) having? SUBSCRIBE! :-)
On 21 Mar 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
* I meant a.m not p.m thats later 😊
On 21 Mar 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Paddy's post has done me a favour as our weather was the same yesterday except no wind here :) Was a lovely spring day to start clearing out the polytunnel and gees did I leave it in a rare ole state, very warm digging out smallest loaded compost heap first to make room for all the dead stuff until i'm strong enough to empty the other 3, a job well done making new compost area last spring as have composted more material and some nice compost ready for the garden. Daffs took a hit with the snow this year and look a bit knacked but some more still to come out in sheltered wooded part of garden, like Paddy i'm glad of the chance to catch up, it's kinda like how do you eat an elephant one bite ata time. Another nice dry day today to squeeze in an hour here n there outside but cloudier today and 4 deg at 10.30pm Russ and somebody (appologies memory of a goldfish atm) mentioned charged atmosphere, yeah i'm usually really prone to shocks too but they didn't get me this time :))
On 20 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, fairly clear sky, ground frost and cold N’ly wind which only stopped by evening, very sunny morning, feeling really warm in the sun, max temp 9˚, though the minute the sun was blocked out it felt markedly colder, late sunshine again, fairly starry sky in the evening, 1˚ at 9.30pm. Oh, and today at 16.15 was spring equinox. Russ: I didn’t even know that Steve existed until tonight, when my wife read to me about it from the paper; couldn't get to the Nasa link, so looked up on YTube.
On 20 Mar 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Not just the cold weather...but it does add to the effect. >> http://www.feynmanlectures.caltech.edu/II_09.html << My wife is particularly susceptible to shocks, especially off car doors, but she gets her worst shocks on hot days in summer, which kind of goes against the basic rules. Often while solar flares are hitting the atmosphere. She gets a bad shock, then checks spaceweather.com to see what's happening on the Sun. Its almost always an active Sun that coincides with her worst shocks. If not active then a large coronal hole has a similar effect. Talking of atmospheric electricity, Steve was seen from Aberdeenshire....Paddy? Did you miss Steve putting in an appearance? >> >> https://go.nasa.gov/2pgZMI7 <<
On 20 Mar 2018, M Lewis wrote:
Did anyone get electric shocks from touching metal objects and door handles over the weekend and on Monday? The very cold UK weather caused this static electricity to be in the atmosphere. In the USA many states suffer from this problem during the winter months.
On 20 Mar 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Ahhh yes you can! You can alleviate the pothole problem by forcing the bus and haulage companies to properly service their vehicles so they stop leaking oil and diesel onto the roads making them lethal for cyclists and motorcyclists and causing breakup of the surface during winter. Also, if the councils used tarmac instead of these new fangled mixes of crushed glass and all manner of other cheap ingredients, maybe we could get back to having a road surface that lasts somewhat more than 6 months before starting to break up....and that's through the summer! Same as everything else, penny pinching, done on the cheap by the cheapest (most useless) bidder. Same story with electronic road signs. They are all failing. Water ingress I guess but these things cost many thousands of pounds each but they haven't lasted many years before failing completely, making them unreadable and therefore useless. Obviously another money saving exercise gone wrong.
On 20 Mar 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
>> http://bit.ly/2ICJRMl << Straight in at the deep end. Almost pole to pole and the biggest I've ever seen. Over the equinox too...should be interesting. So the last little ica age came on relatively slowly Craig? The most notable initial increase being summer rainfall?....Snowfall was around 70mm here but drifting was severe pushing the powder snow into every trap making 2m drifts. Potholes are insane and the council seems reluctant to fill any of them. No good blaming the snow as the holes only appear on bus routes. Routes on high ground across the moors (not used by big diesel buses and trucks), but experiencing far worse ice and snow - and salt - have no potholes. I've noticed the same in Scotland after touring in a snowy April. The towns and cities had potholes but the mountain roads hardly had any yet had the most severe weather. Blame the buses, tax the companies for road repairs, cost passed to customer = higher fares. You just can't win....
On 20 Mar 2018, Bill S ( N E Wales) wrote:
Monday was a dry sunny day in NE Wales, temps struggled up to 6 C taking all snow and ice with it. Brisk NE wind throughout. Tuesday dawns cold and sunny but frost free. The cold snap has gone as quickly as it came to think area
On 19 Mar 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
A covering of snow this weekend, starting properly late Saturday night and around an inch by Sunday morning, seemed dry at first and looked great blowing off the roofs, but as the day went on more so wet snow so stuck to most places except the stones but melted fairly quickly by the end of the day and this morning had mostly all gone. The wind chill was raw but as it dropped off today it seemed a little milderish than the last few days and some nice sunny spells grinning through to suggest spring is delayed but not completely absent.
On 19 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30 but the sun was already well out and there was only a gentle N’ly breeze, though that did strengthen later on and kept going right through. Sunny morning with a max temp of 5˚, cloudy afternoon with some late sunshine, 1˚ at 9.30pm. Personally I’m not bothered with a late spring, when things get going too early there is invariably a cold snap which sets everything back.
On 19 Mar 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS current run projecting a cold end to March and cold start to April.
On 19 Mar 2018, eastside wrote:
Finally a good strong green Aurora was visible this eve.
It was quite strange because it came up quite suddenly and the clouds thinned, remained bright enough to reflect off the sea for a good 10mins or more.
Aurora in northern Baltic states are relatively rare events.
I imagine visible in Scotland when a clear sky & will be a spectacular KP6 storm in the USA.
This one was still accompanied by a strong cold wind but this one from the south west, which is more bearable compared with a north wind direct off the sea.
With the change of wind direction, snow is melting, freezing only at night, but it means the easterly air flows are well and truly over. Spring can slowly begin to develop as we hit the equinox.
On 18 Mar 2018, Andy (Chiltern HIlls) wrote:
Max temp -2 here today, -3 by 6pm with heavy fine crystal snow as described by other commenters. A quick thaw was forecast for Monday which has now been put back to tues/ weds- hopefully they won’t put it back any further as supposed to be playing golf Wednesday.
On 18 Mar 2018, michaelb wrote:
Wessex/Mercia border 600'asl ❄ ☺
@22:10
Just started snowing again and the wind picking up.
m
On 18 Mar 2018, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:
Craig your right about the lunar cycles / beats it's what I like to look at and match up if possible (not an exact science). Hence my long standing 2018 predictions. Didn't get above -1 here today with snow and ice causing a nuisance. Little signs of spring in the garden. Very late compared to the last 3 years.
On 18 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, light covering of snow blown about by the strong E’ly wind, pretty cloudy and temps soon rising above freezing to a max of 5˚, the afternoon turning quite sunny in parts and the wind slowly abating towards evening as the HP area is migrating south, 1˚ at 9.30pm, though open ground is frozen.
On 18 Mar 2018, Dave - Exmouth wrote:
5" of snow here, 9 hours of snow from 10am. Longest continuous period of snow I've known for many years. Max daytime temp 0.9C.
On 18 Mar 2018, Dave - Exmouth wrote:
5" of snow here, 9 hours of snow from 10am. Longest continuous period of snow I've known for many years. Max daytime temp 0.9C.
On 18 Mar 2018, michaelb wrote:
Wessex/Mercia border 600'asl
@21:30
Temps down to 26F/-3C tonight. Little or no thaw during the day and local roads and pavements turned icy this evening. Main roads are clear.
Regards,m
On 18 Mar 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
CRAIG350: Aye, I remember dogging off school to go trout fishing on the opening day of the season( 15th) and ending up fishing in the snow. I also remember a cold March in the late 1950s too and cold Aprils in 1966 and 1969( with a cold March preceding the latter.
On 18 Mar 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
This really has been quite a remarkable March with these two easterly episodes. It was 13°C on Friday, yet was snowing by the next morning. Flakes continued all day& sparkled as michaelb commented yesterday. It was the strangest snow I can recall, beautiful perfect icy crystalline dendrites that created a soft loose layer of snow, almost like the height you get by throwing straws. By eve there was a dusting on grass& on cars but then the pace picked up. By midnight there was a nice crunchy 1-2 inch layer but was blown off hard surfaces. By morn there was 3-4 inches on tops of cars, wheely bins & grass. It was melting off pavements & roads from the get go but stayed everywhere else. By 5pm frozen over & now 8pm has more snow which has covered everything. Checks date - Mar 18th! Wow. Very well done Piers//Ron that wouldn't be the early 60s would it? March 1962 was a cold one, four years after solar max (Mar 58) & approaching minimum. 56 years = ~3 x 18.6 which is lunar.
On 18 Mar 2018, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:
Temps dropped to 32F during the afternoon and as dusk approached it started snowing, this time settling more and has been doing so ever since at just past 8pm. How will the MetO and other data fiddlers turn this into one of the warmest Marches on record? Paul Homewood has already shown that in the US they are already at it with the records barely dry.
On 18 Mar 2018, Bill S (NE Wales) wrote:
Saturday frequent snow and light hail showers maximum day temp 2.3c strongNE wind. Overnight snow giving about 2” , remained cloudy all day today, and dry after 9am. Snow melting/evaporating during the day to leave roads and pavementsdry. The wind picked up again this afternoon maximum day temp 0c minimum -2 c. A real confusing start to the spring.
On 18 Mar 2018, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:
probably a bit more snow this time than start of Month. Not much in though but this has stuck more. Drifted still in the strong winds. Is this it for winter??
On 18 Mar 2018, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:
Snow flurries continued all day with some heavier spells. Nothing settled on hard surfaces. Temp dropped to 34F later on. Drove to Brighton to find that it was a bit warmer and not snowing there, which was good walking along the seafront to the gig. I am sure Joe Bonamassa has invented time distortion as in what seemed no time at all we got to the last song- where did 2 hours just go? Coming out there was light snow and a cold wind in my face walking back to the van. Snow showers on the way home but again nothing settling on hard ground. Chilly 34F this morning, overcast and breezy.
On 18 Mar 2018, michaelb wrote:
Wessex/Mercia border 600'asl ❄☺
4" of global warming fell overnight and this morning. Drifts not as bad as last time, but snow ploughs out keeping the main roads clear. Snow has stopped now, winds light, temp around 32F.
Regards, m
On 18 Mar 2018, steven wrote:
Hi piers. Excellent forcast again. The snow in the Sheffield area is almost identical to the beginning of the month with drifting. Keep up the great work
On 18 Mar 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
A modest covering of snow this morning here in Highland Perthshire with a biting wind. Reminds me of the March days of my youth in the 1960s.
On 17 Mar 2018, Andy(Chiltern Hills) wrote:
Steady snow all day with temperature -2 mid afternoon. Heavy snow all evening with blizzard conditions and -4 temperature.
On 17 Mar 2018, michaelb wrote:
Wessex/Mercia border 600' asl.
Thin covering of sparkly sugary-like snow in the village now, fell in the last 2 hours and light snow still falling. Temps around 29-30F
Regards
m
On 17 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, cold SE’ly & the tiniest bit of granular snow lying here and there. Despite the cloudy start we had quite a sunny day, along with monumental cumulus tower clouds and the odd snow flurry, max temp 3˚, wind not as fierce as yesterday but still bitingly cold, -1˚ by 8.30pm. Not sure how justified Vimtobeeb™’s yellow warning was for us.
On 17 Mar 2018, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine//Hertfordshire snow light flakes consistent flurries all day will be in Channel Islands tomorrow umph,!,, hopefully, to update weather from there wow what a Spring
On 17 Mar 2018, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:
Snow settling now strong sunshine has gone. Could be a good covering by morning, as this is wetter snow than last time.
On 17 Mar 2018, michaelb wrote:
Wessex/Mercia border 600'asl ❄☺
Light continuous snow fall for the last two hours. Ambient OAT 32F/ 0C, winds easterly. Snow starting to settle but no real coverage. Another success for WA!
Regards to all, m
(30+45 day subs)
On 17 Mar 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
interesting to compare the MWIS week-ahead forecast with the Vimtobeeb one. The grey dreich misery here has been replaced by colder yet brighter weather with snow showers.
On 17 Mar 2018, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:
10am, 36F and snowing hard. Big flakes not the fine powder of last time. Settling sporadically. Patio looks like it is not cold enough to let it settle. Wind from the north has been gusty but eased off now. Yesterday was a lovely day and a bonus of being at home. Had to run some errands so took the long route just to drive through our lovely countryside bathed in spring sun. Floods still on the roads in places and surfaces breaking up badly. Tyres force water into any cracks in the surface and with freezing temps overnight it starts the break up of the surface. Once the top wearing course has been breached an ever increasing hole starts and then the base course is exposed to damage. When that goes you get the tyre, rim, suspension busting 4in deep holes. My road is waiting for some resurfacing but the weather has delayed it. Feb / March are usually busy trying to spend the last of the resurfacing budget at probably the worst time.
On 16 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
3˚C at 7.30 and staying that all day, still very windy from the SE and we had a few sleety showers in the morning but the afternoon was largely dry, 2˚ by 10pm. There were no warnings on the MO site this morning but tonight they’ve suddenly appeared, yellow for snow and ice in our area, though it doesn’t look to me like we’re going to get much.
On 16 Mar 2018, Bill S (NE Wales) wrote:
Thouroughly wet morning at 6 c fields and roads standing water This Afternoon was a complete contrast sun and mild 12C Temps falling away sharply now , 6 C at 2000. Mini beast this weekend? Let’s hope we don’t have to get the SALT out again :)
On 16 Mar 2018, Maria ( Ireland sub ) wrote:
*before that wet n windy spell..bad spellink now missing words :))
On 16 Mar 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Apologies for lack of input the last week has been pretty hectic here, after a slight spike in temp and a few dryer sunnier mildish spring days we had that wet n windy spell which crept in Tues night and progressively got more wet n windy during Wed. Lots of flooding in the fields around and temps starting to drop again with that chill feelin in the air. Met finally popped up a yellow snow warning on their site here for weekend :)) will try and post how it goes if get time the weekend in between better halfs long awaited back surgery and the tiddlywinks, 7 deg. With some cloud some sun at 11 a.m this morn.
On 16 Mar 2018, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:
March has been very wet in these parts with no sign of a long dry period.
On 16 Mar 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
I think my comment yesterday re Hawkins has been misconstrued - easy enough online. Steve D & I do not run the site, we just moderate comments+defer to Piers if unsure. With regards to Hawking, I'm no fan of his theories p & the ensuing gravy train it enables, nor his support for the climate ponzi which Piers challenged him to a public debate on last year === "Prof Hawking spoke alarmist delusional nonsense on so-called (ManMade) Climate Change and as a leading world scientist failed in his duty to support evidence-based scientific principles.." ===
(see main page+ video link). However, some of the terminology used regarding his disability - even if unintentional or using rhyming slang - have not been acceptable. Some of us on here have disabilities in the family, so please understand why we'd rather not release such a comment. By all means reword your comment bearing that in mind. Thank you
On 16 Mar 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Russ Nil nisi bonum is the abbreviated form (was short on characters). As for Lamb, changes were on decadal scale I.e. "Although the climate across NW Europe was still generally benign (indeed, the peak of warmth of the Medieval Age may have occurred in this century), from the middle of the 13th century, an increase in 'unsettled' weather events has been detected by some researchers; the first signs of the descent into the 'Little Ice Age'. It is indeed possible that the increased storminess was concentrated in the second half of the 13th century" Many areas were washed away during this time" === https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2016/02/21/violent-storms-are-evidence-that-climate-changes-it-always-has/ === see also === https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2015/12/11/stormy-weather-ushered-in-the-little-ice-age-hh-lamb/ === there's also a reason we switched from wheat which rotted in the fields (ergot poisoning) due to wet summers to turnips!
On 16 Mar 2018, eastside wrote:
"Large Coronal hole passing earth facing position, wind incoming today/tomorrow, KP at 4 overnight & flux at 68. When will spring arrive?"
I went out at 2.30am close to the sea to see whether any aurora was visible.
The night was clear but with a violent north wind at -8C blowing off the sea,>a wind chill of around -25C.
Correctly, GFS stated the N hemisphere circulation had not recovered from the last SSW event, so this is a continuation.
In the circumstances without a face mask, you get more tears blowing out of the eyes than is useful to be able to see any auroral glow on the horizon under KP6.
The same vicious wind is forecast for all of today, which is why St Petersburg/Baltic region has such a reputation in winter.
Moscow is also at a very chilly -20C at night.
Temperatures are set to re-stabilise above 0C on sunday, but with heavy snow in Ural & Moscow for another week.
You will get our weather for a short 24h in the northern UK, then spring will come back.
On 16 Mar 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Craig ... shouldn't that be 'de mortuis nil nisi bonum', considering Hawking is no longer in the realm of the living? Raining again today, on top of rain and more rain. With many days now returning no sun spots, I can only envisage a cool and rather moist summer ahead. We'll have to rely on earth facing coronal holes to drive the weather changes instead of solar flares.... Craig. How long did Hubert Lamb reckon it takes for a little ica age to get going? Just one season or several? According to historians it takes only three bad growing seasons to create mass starvation. Over the past few years we have already seen crop failures in many places where we wouldn't expect to see them like California and Spain for instance. Our farmers should start to diversify growing winter crops such as cabbage instead of sensitive crops like wheat and barley. It will take time to change but change we must. Think nutrition differences between bread, needing multiple ingredients plus baking and green veg.
On 15 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, overcast & wildly windy, the strong SE’ly wind had been going all night, not much change during the day, max temp 4˚, back down to 3˚ by 9.30pm, with rain thrown into the mix. Forecast has changed again to much less rain tomorrow than what was predicted at the beginning of the week.
On 15 Mar 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
More rain!!! Damp start for the journey to work but the sun is out now. Everything is saturated and I expect the home match to bite the mud this Saturday. Even the ploughing match on Sunday is subject to a pitch inspection(?) today to confirm it proceeding. There is a second one on so I think asking them how it looks is wise.
On 15 Mar 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Yellow snow (!!) warning out for Fri into Sunday for the East and SE a Beast Part II is incoming as Piers warned in this month's forecast. Looks to be very unseasonable for the daffodils and raw for us. I saw the first daf emerge late Jan but it's only this week that I've seen swathes of them coming up, this will hold them off so should be in full effect for Easter. Large Coronal hole passing earth facing position, wind incoming today/tomorrow, KP at 4 overnight and flux at 68. When will spring arrive? You'll have to subscribe to find out
On 15 Mar 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Some comments regarding the late Stephen Hawking have not been released. There's no objection to attacking his ideas such as the Venus idea, supporting the climate hoax or even the gravy train of his area of physics, but please avoid the personal and be careful how you word his disability. The man was a hero for many not for his ideas but for what he overcame "Starting in the 1990s, Hawking accepted the mantle of role model for disabled people, lecturing and participating in fundraising activities.[283] At the turn of the century, he and eleven other luminaries signed the Charter for the Third Millennium on Disability, which called on governments to prevent disability and protect the rights of the disabled" (Wiki). I remember seeing a documentary and he said his disability helped him explore his ideas as he had to visualise - I used that to visualise climate myself despite disagreeing with most of his ideas. So please be wary how you write. Nil nisi bonum
On 14 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, overcast, SE’ly wind picking up and going all day into the night, hardly any sun today, max temp 7˚ but dry at least, 5˚ by 10pm. I’m not too unhappy about delayed spring as this is always the panic season when the weather suddenly does change for the warmer.
On 14 Mar 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Aargh! So close! Having declared game on at 5.15pm as I arrived at the ground at 7.15pm everyone was leaving! On the way home I noted so dark clouds around and looked at the radar. The amount of surface water lying at home suggests to me that we copped a heavy shower passing over and that did for the pitch. Cold start this morning with some ice on the roof but no frost on the van. Sunny in town with a light wind - 55F at 2pm.
On 14 Mar 2018, stephen parker wrote:
The mini beastie is back for the week end with the possibility of a snow event for Southern Britain. Bad news for the birds and growers.
On 13 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, overcast for most of the day, though thankfully we had some sunny intervals, breeze swinging from NW to S via E, max temp 8˚, noticeably cooler in the afternoon though, 3˚ again by 10pm. RON, being a musical man I like things to roll off the tongue, Meteobeeb just doesn’t do it for me and is not ironic enough :-)
On 13 Mar 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
A second Beast From The East was talked about at our pub quiz last night as the quizmaster said that he would be there next Monday - snow or not. Big night for the team as we go for a 4th win on the trot to set a new record for us. The Beast brought us good fortune. Sunny start this morning meaning a bit chilly out of the rays. Pitch inspection this afternoon to see if we can play tonight. I hope so but reality suggests probably not.
On 13 Mar 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
PADDY: ,Vimtobeeb'---just love it-a great successor to Mobeeb.
Latest GFS run now going for a more intense and widespread 'East Beast' at the weekend and multiple options for snowfall during the rest of the month. Enjoy the next few days of 'Spring'
On 13 Mar 2018, eastside wrote:
First rain for 3 months here.
A big thaw is taking place where the majority of the 10-20cm of snow will disappear within 48hrs.
However, a suprise is on the way,- ("the coming easterly blast, which will mainly affect South East England and the near Continent").
Max temp is predicted +7C today, followed by a forecast of -14C>-6 on Friday. That's a 20C change from max to min within 2 days.
Pressure is building again over Scandinavia, and temperatures are still very low with no melt in Ural region.
Normally it would point to a cold end to March..
On 12 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, overcast with a NE - E’ly breeze, some spells of light drizzle in the morning, drier afternoon with a few patches of blue sky showing, max temp 8˚, down to 4˚ by 9.30pm. Yes, Gerry, the wetness of the ground is remarkable, driving around a bit at the weekend we could see how much water there is lying in fields and ditches. Vimtobeeb saying very wet again on Friday.
On 12 Mar 2018, Bill S (N E Wales) wrote:
A good soaking here today (18mm) Grey and wet all day with light winds mainly northerly direction. Much coolers 7 c compared to the weekends balmy 13c
On 12 Mar 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
More rain overnight and into the morning. Brief spell of sun in London. Mild. The last thing we needed was yet more rain on our already saturated ground.
On 12 Mar 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Current GFS run suggests that Scotland and Ireland will miss the worst of the coming easterly blast, which will mainly affect South East England and the near Continent. Expect further changes and cancellations
On 11 Mar 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
oooooops--standard models flipping back to colder weather again. It's amazing how many flip flops you can get for tens of millions of £££ arrgh!
On 11 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, sun shining through sheets of altocirrus, sunny morning with a W’ly breeze, max temp 11˚, a degree or so warmer in the sun, highest temp so far this year, cloudy afternoon, 4˚ at 10pm. Ron, Meteobeeb saying wet coming weekend here with SE’ly winds.
On 11 Mar 2018, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:
Spells of rain yesterday afternoon and into the evening. Murky later on. Mainly dry today until a sharp shower mid afternoon accompanied by a clap of thunder. Cloudier now as the sun sets and some rain in the air. My cherry plum is coming into blossom as the first to do so. If we get some sun there is chance of something being around to pollinate.
On 11 Mar 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Standard models, now retreating from a mini-beast from the east at the end of next week
On 11 Mar 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Meteobeeb posing an interesting scenario for next weekend and quite a treacherous one for growers with a mild spell during the week followed by a sharp easterly airstream. How will it pan out.
On 10 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, ground frost but the sky was already overcast and yes, we had a very wet day from about 10.30 onwards, the heaviest rain falling in the evening, all of it on an E’ly wind, max temp 4˚ and still that now at 9.30pm. Tomorrow promises to be dry, at least we’re out of the frost for the next few days.
On 10 Mar 2018, Bill S (NE Wales) wrote:
First frost free morning for a few days now was today(sat) +8c at 0700. What with Thursdays snow and last nights heavy rain, that’s 25mm this week Impressive for the rain shadow NE Wales. Light southerly wind
On 10 Mar 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Heavy rain started at 1.20 a.m
On 10 Mar 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Cold start with a widespread frost early morn. 9th a little mist, some sunny spells for a time then increasing cloud & some light occasional showers a little windy also late aft./early eve. Max 8 deg. 6 now at 12.34 a.m and partly cloudy. 😂 Gerry, my first doughnut since July 17 I did pick up a new part for my bike too :)
On 09 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, clear as a bell to begin with, then clouds started moving in and we had another mostly sunny day interspersed with large clouds that brought a tiny bit of rain in the morning, WNW’ly breeze. During the sunny bits, temps got up to 9˚ and it was warm enough to take one’s coat of while working, still quite clear tonight, 0˚ by 9pm. Tomorrow looks like a wet one.
On 09 Mar 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
The flooded roads are back! Having dried out during the cold of last week, having been ice-roads the week before, the 3 lake sections are back although not quite as deep as they were. Not only is this hitting our football club but most of the fields are too wet to work. I hope the venue for the ploughing match on 18th is in a fit condition to plough. Bright and cloudy today and not too cold with temp in town at 2pm 50F. Since when has there been a diet that includes doughnuts? Must have missed that one.
On 09 Mar 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
another 2 cm of snow overnight and further snow showers this morning here at 140 metres in Highland Perthshire. Unlike last year no early sprouting of tree seeds or early flushing of saplings in my seedbeds.
On 08 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, just to demonstrate that winter isn’t over just yet, follower by another sunny day with a max temp of 9˚, highest so far this year, light and cool S’ly breeze, 0˚ at 10pm.
On 08 Mar 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Cold start a light frost but soon clearing, some good dry spells and even sunny at times too this morning, some amazing clouds with the odd light shower this aft. partly cloudy and 5 deg at 6.30pm Still some amazing piles of snow slowly melting around the countryside, went to a bigger town for an appointment and popped into local big supermarket and their shelves still affected too, we too stock up a good bit of essentials as it makes sense, but it was nice to get some fresh veg and doughnuts for the diet :)
On 08 Mar 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
According to vague reports Leeds and Harrogate had a fair bit of disruptive snow. Around these parts on high ground, above 600ft had a smear of white and a covering of an inch at 800ft. Back home there was none and bits of drizzle in a mainly warm and sunny day. Hit 10C at one point this afternoon. Still 6C at 5pm....Not seen a single empty supermarket shelf...why? Because we were prepared and stocked up on over a months supply of everything. Simple innit?
On 08 Mar 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
No snow, but buckets of rain during the early hours so that come time to go to the station it was sunny. Patio flooding, pools of water in the garden and not what our local team need for the pitch. Luckily not at home for the coming round of games. Currently 48F in the City and completely different to last week. On the plus side my gas consumption should be back down this week. Ice speedway must be one of the craziest sports going. Not really speedway as the bikes have so much grip they lean round the corners like road racing. it makes like much easier if you have consistent conditions such as ice that allows you to use studded tyres.
On 08 Mar 2018, Nick, Berks wrote:
Gerry, so Czersky says that H20 is a greenhouse gas and she's a surprising hero, the IPCC says the same thing and it has to be discounted because they're corrupt? Interesting argument. No I don't believe CO2 caused the MWP, but then I've never claimed that CO2 is the sole driver of climate. You seem to be falling back into the fallacy of A= Not B. If everything is single variable how could you explain climate variation? What's your theory? It's certainly not all solar because the UAH data show an increase in global temperature of 0.13C per decade over the same period that solar activity is decreasing. How do you explain that? Is the solar theory 'utter rubbish as well?
On 08 Mar 2018, C View wrote:
Interesting statement from spaceweather.com
"The last time the sun was blank more than 50% of the time was in 2009, near the end of the deepest Solar Minimum of the Space Age. Now the sun is entering a new Solar Minimum, and it is shaping up to be even deeper than before. "
On 08 Mar 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Yet for over a week, while we had sub zero temperatures 24/7 and snow and ice, they did not grit any roads except the M1 motorway. Even the 70mph bypasses were left without. I think that this disregard and disorganisation, which we pay for, is a disgrace and certainly something to get hyped up about, when you pass dozens of cars in ditches and up embankments due to the councils lackadaisical attitude. Salting the roads is supposed to help prevent this. ... eastside... whatever!! I sift through official sources for my information and ignore opinion from ranters and naysayers. Average salinity of sea water is 3.5% but that sea water feezes over without too much trouble even on our feeble UK shorelines. I get tired of proving people wrong because they are too lazy to do the necessary research. Took me less than 5 minutes while waiting for the kettle to boil.
On 08 Mar 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Less effective at less than -3C unless in higher concentrations yep I agree because some councils use a lower (cheaper) concentration, making the stuff pretty useless. Table salt I did use when we ran out of rock salt and sudden freezing rain on top of already frozen ground meant the salt was still a white snake of salt across the steps as viewed THROUGH the ice that formed. This was around -4C with a 100% salt concentration. Mixed with sand and grit the grit bites into the ice and improves grip, even for walking. Plus, as the blah blah merchants said, when vehicle tyres mix the grit, sand and salt into the snow and ice, then melting is achieved much quicker. Yesterday at +7C the council threw huge amounts of grit on every road they could find at 1:30pm. Forecast was for the possibilty of slight snow at low levels or possible ice the following morning. Woke up to drizzle and +2C and all the salt was removed on dry roads by the previous evenings rush hour traffic and rain overnight.
On 08 Mar 2018, Bill S (NE Wales) wrote:
0630 8th A good covering of snow here first thing temperature just above freezing at 0.2 so I expect a thaw as the day wears on. Yesterday ( 7th) it was spring like with beautiful blue sky light winds temps 7c
On 08 Mar 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Cold start with frost this morning 7th some nice sunshine for a time later and nice to hear the birds a bit more again, sat outside to grab a lil vit D time. Starting to get itchy gardening fingers so might have to get back to work outside soon in some way as need the exercise too. Temp seems to be dropping down again after a brief blip up. Phone says -1 at 12.43 a.m and light rain late tonight has become more sleety with wet snow mixed in too I noticed on the window while feeding lil one around 30 mins ago.
On 07 Mar 2018, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
THANKS ALL Great Reports. Next few days very interesting obs comms and reports please. Read my note on Br+Ir forecast 3rd period. AND IF YOU ARE NOT A SUBSCRIBER GO FOR IT TODAY (also present for me, birthday 10th) - upTo67%off on eg TheWholeLOT 12mth, or 50% off 45d 6m/12m and more!! =+=+=+ ROAD SALT. It's not something people should get hyped up about! Thanks Craig for facts. Basically road salt which is crushed rock-salt (NaCl) gets feeble below -3C and does not work below -9C. Table salt - finer - is more effective and CaCl2 even more. Limit of all salt freezing mixtures is Fahrenheit's zeroF approx -18C. It's better especially for pavements to mix with sand or when I was aged 7 with coal fire ash which even without salt worked wonders for grip on ice, better than wood ash btw. Note also part of success of road salt = RockSalt is impurities in it which help with grip =+=+=+ MONDAY MARCH 12th I am speaking at debate in University College London see via event Brite or my twitter
On 07 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
Just above 0˚C at 7.30, bits of blue sky visible, then a fairly sunny day, first time in a week that we’ve seen the sun again, slight S’ly breeze, max temp 8˚, some stars visible tonight, 3˚ at 10pm. We seem to have an outbreak of mud wrestling here :-)
On 07 Mar 2018, DaveT wrote:
Countries with proper cold winters don't use salt on the roads - it doesn't work.
In the UK _mainly_ it works.
The bikers I know in Finland look forward to winter and tearing about on the iced-up roads on spiked tyres!
On 07 Mar 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Re salt - there is no straight answer however this is pretty much what most councils on England, Wales and Scotland say (I've highlighted the key bit) ===
*** In the concentrations we use *** on our roads salt does not melt ice below minus eight degrees centigrade and is less effective at temperatures below minus five degrees centigrade. === looks like we use 10% which starts being less effective at -5C whilst 20% shows -16C as the lower end, however in a few places a mixture of salt and beet looks to work down to -28C and sticks to the ice rather than being washed away. Search "ice bite roads" or "rock salt+beet roads"
On 07 Mar 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Norwegian Weather Service at variance with GFS over the week ahead outlook. MWIS going for a generally cool period with brief milder incursions. Fog here this morning and sleet showers this afternoon with more snow above 350 metres.
On 07 Mar 2018, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:
Eastside makes a valid point about grit although according to work pals wife who deals with logistics for gritting etc it fails to work below -8 so not sure what is correct there but it certainly does have a limit.
On 07 Mar 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
I think, Nick, you will find you are talking utter rubbish. If CO2 is the driver of the warming of the planet please explain the 18 year pause in temperature - ignoring the Karl et al drivel paper of course - while CO2 levels increased? While you are it you can also explain why during the Medieval Warm Period the vikings settled and farmed Greenland which you can't currently do because it is too cold. You can also answer the question of why vines grew around Newcastle during the Roman Warm Period so that they produced wine, which it is currently too cold to do even though allegedly it is so warm? As there was no human output of CO2 in those times, I guess the warm periods were caused by something else, just as the current one is. And as for offering anything from the corrupt IPCC as evidence LOL.
On 07 Mar 2018, eastside wrote:
yes yea bla bla...
I notice you only quote government agencies which are soo effective! They don't mind telling porkie pies to they?
TROLL?
Off you go again ad hominem.
Can't find a better way?
Well come over & pay us a visit will you?
You can actually WALK to Finland currently across 60-80 miles of guess what SALT WATER!
What is the current temperature of said water?
-1C...
So when they write "Salt is less effective when the road surface temperature falls below -9°C, so when temperatures drop below freezing our gritters are sent out." They are obviously talking utter bollox.
What they mean is SALT IS TOTALLY INEFFECTIVE below -2 or -3C, but we can't tell you any of that cos we'll scare the living daylight out of everyone & then the insurance industry will go crazy, cos they can't find anyone to blame! eh?
That's it?
Usual British doubletalk.
It's time you give up quoting the same idiots that flooded the somerset levels, then blamed "climate change" for failing to
On 07 Mar 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
>> https://science.howstuffworks.com/nature/climate-weather/atmospheric/road-salt.htm <<...>> https://www.n-somerset.gov.uk/my-services/parking-travel-roads/roads/winterroads/salting-the-roads/ <<...>> http://www.rochdale.gov.uk/parking-roads-and-transport/gritting-and-winter-service/Pages/salt-myths-facts.aspx << Nothing but insults as usual from the sites pet troll...!
On 06 Mar 2018, eastside wrote:
"when there was -9C and black ice plus falling wet snow there wasn't a gritter in sight"
Sorry but this has to be the most idiotic comment here.
SALT or GRIT does NOT WORK at -9C.
Below -3C salt does not do anything.
Anyone who has ever lived in a proper winter area of the continent will tell you this,(hence why we in Russia/Baltic states are highly relieved when it gets properly cold, because grip is MUCH BETTER at these temps).
FYI,I followed a PROPER truck driver some 6yrs ago who overtook me on the 3rd lane on the Autobahn.
(In fact he flashed me to move over!).
I did.
He then proceeded to belt along at 80mph in thick snow, NO WORRY.
We followed each other for about 1hr, as I realised he obviously had proper tyres & was highly experienced.The 38T beast was a snow plough! Amazing!
Overtook absolutely everything on the autobahn who were crawling along at about 30mph.
In the end it was v funny.
Eventually he pulled off and turned a different direction, even waved back
On 06 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, still raining, still windy from the E, rain really picking up after midday, water everywhere & our duckpond almost overflowing, only the second time in the 26 years we’ve been on the farm. Rain only stopped after 8pm and fog came in, temps gradually rising, 4˚ at 8.30pm. Tomorrow we should see the sun again, rest of week not looking as bad as they had forecast earlier on and temps rising to more seasonal level.
On 06 Mar 2018, Nick, Berks wrote:
Gerry, by all means prove me wrong by referring to a point in Dr Czerski's programme where she says CO2 is not a greenhouse gas and does not affect temperature. She says that H20 is a greenhouse gas . As a matter of pure logic, A does not imply Not B. There is nothing new about H20 being a powerful greenhouse gas. See for example https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-1-3.html - 'Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas, and carbon dioxide (CO2) is the second-most important one. '! Or https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesiciencenarratives/its-water-vapor-not-the-co2.html. Or indeed many other reliable sources - I don't include Iceagenow there.
The issue is that CO2 ( also methane) is increasing rapidly, warming the atmosphere and allowing it to hold even more water vapour. Try approaching the mater with a willingness to understand rather than a prejudice that finds everyone else is an idiot and you'll be a lot better for it.
On 06 Mar 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Still a good bit of slushy snow in the fields and at the side n middle of the roads esp in sheltered places, also still a yellow warning for snow and ice. A bit warmer with some sunny spells after a little fog this morn. so more melting this aft. max 7 deg 4 now at 6.30pm local supermarket looked ransacked but managed to get a few bits n pieces 😂 btw thanks Helen 😉
On 06 Mar 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
contd' the government needs to loosen the purse strings and allow the councils the freedom to buy and use what they need, and go easy on the regulations and restrictions. If people had more cash they could afford winter tyres. But winter tyres don't stop a truck driver tailgating a little hatchback on a busy motorway at 55mph in -7C and falling snow. Idiots will always be idiots no matter what tyres they use. Then there's a crash and 10,000 people are late for work. And its no good saying that people in eastern Europe can cope with snow but us Brits can't. I've seen hours and hours of highly entertaining video footage from dash-cams showing what a bunch of morons they are when driving in snow, winter tyres or not. Like I said, once and idiot always an idiot! Care and driving technique account for so much. I drove hundreds of miles on compact snow in a hatchback with standard tyres on hilly roads and was absolutely fine. But then I don't try to emulate Colin McRae every time it snows!!
On 06 Mar 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
cont' .... because the councils and their existing equipment haven't done their job either properly or early enough. They gritted when there was a frost and a little ice at -3C, then when there was -9C and black ice plus falling wet snow there wasn't a gritter in sight. There was 5 inches of fresh snow preventing anyone driving up a 4 mile incline on a 2 lane bypass. 5 days later when the snow had mostly been turned to a couple of inches of slush, they sent the snow plough and gritting lorry to clear it. Its almost as if they were deliberately making life as difficult as possible for the public. You couldn't make it up the way our local council runs things in poor winter weather. Add to this the fact that many folk are sacked for not turning up due to snow, and you have a disaster on your hands with many roads being blocked not by snow but by stranded vehicles. Local people fit winter tyres, drive as if on an X-box, then crash blocking another road...the solution is simple cont'
On 06 Mar 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Its not just a case of right equipment. People don't stay home when it goes from dry to 200mm of snow overnight because they simply can't afford it. Many couples in this country struggle to makes ends meet most weeks through winter and that is with both working full time. Our economy tweakers like Osbourne squeeze us till we squeal and then spout off about how its all been for the better good. Pompous, unsympathetic, ignorant, buffoon that he is! Why does anyone believe all this austerity crap. We allegedly had a massive debt, so austerity measures were implemented, so the media tell us that the measures are working and the debt has reduced more than expected. Then 6 months later we are told that the debt is worse than ever and that austerity isn't working. Does anyone honestly believe all this lying garbage any more? So roads littered with dead cars can mostly be attributed to people being forced to try and get to work even though there is black ice and snow ...cont'
On 06 Mar 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Interesting piece on the rise of cosmic radiation on Spaceweather that follows a paper in Space Weather. The paper says that cosmic radiation is dangerous and intensifying faster than predicted. They note that the level is peaking at a level not seen before in the space age and refer to remarkably weak solar activity. The cosmic rays penetrate aeroplanes and dose crew and passengers and the article states that some research shows that cosmic rays can seed clouds to potentially alter weather and climate! Also linked to cardiac arrhythmias. And they call the coming years part of the deepest solar minimum in more than a century.
On 06 Mar 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Gordon - yes, I nearly fell off the sofa in shock. I was expecting the worst as Dr Czerski approached the subject but she did actually say that unlike most people who think CO2 controls our planet temperature, it was actually water vapour. Although the little snow I had has all gone a friend just south of the Humber reports that only one road to the village is open as snowdrifts block the rest. Supplies being airlifted in by Chinook in Cumbria. Not quite sure why the soldiers were wearing their battlefield helmets - were they expecting the natives to be restless? Back to fairly warm for me with a bright day so far. Interesting that a dispute has broken out about did the MetO warn the Cabinet Office of the SSW or not. Scaife claims they did but their public forecasts don't back that up and by the time they did, everyone was on the case. MetO boss has been fired but not to do with failings on weather and climate.
On 06 Mar 2018, Gordon (north of Alloa, 200ft) non sub wrote:
Steady but slow melt continues here, still a fair amount of snow lying about at this level, especially where the drifts and piles accumulated. 3 degrees and fluctuating between sleety icy rain and giant wet snowflakes at 1pm. Appears to be falling as snow above 350ft on the ochils as the tops which had been showing signs of thaw have been getting whiter all morning. The cold and snow seems to be putting up a fight and has takin to using guerrilla tactics across parts of Scotland today particularly in the north but also sporadically across the rest going by reports on social media.
On 06 Mar 2018, M Lewis wrote:
Here is link to weather research papers published by Chief Meteorology Forecaster at MeteoGroup (BBC weather service provider).
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Dennis_Schulze
On 05 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, snow is going big time, I would say 80% gone by now 9.30pm, light rain all day in a mostly E’ly wind, roads around us are clear but still many remnants of drifts everywhere. Max temp 3˚, positively balmy, back down to 2˚ now. The river Dee and many of its tributaries carrying a lot of water, no doubt more tomorrow as the snows melt further upstream, good thing that the thaw is happening relatively slowly. MO still has a yellow rain & snow warning for tomorrow, we’ll see whether that’s justified by tomorrow night.
On 05 Mar 2018, eastside wrote:
Mucho exaggeration going on here.
The truth is, we are very far from the kind of winter conditions that froze Hitler's army to death at the gates of Moscow in 1941.
More men died of cold than of bullets.It's a fact.
We are also a quantum leap away from the kind of winter which froze out Napoleon's army in the same place in 1812.
What we are not a quantum leap from, is the kind of "blast of artic cold", "beast from the east", hyperbole which is the result of press & media.
This has assumed an importance out of all proportion to any merit or use, to the extent that such countries do the exact OPPOSITE of common sense, & people act as though their brain was permanently out of gear.
What is needed is a proper dose of common sense, organisation+loss of egocentricity.
Eg. In France they made special places for "Co-Voiturage".
HGV are forbidden on days of high density traffic/bad conditions/public holidays.
Road signs show the state of mountain passes/special equipment neede
On 05 Mar 2018, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
Friday to Saturday 2/3here in Dorset
Most unusual snow so powdery that you could not get it to make a snowball or let alone a snowman then overnight we had freezing rain which set the fallen snow solid the poor dog could not stand up on it so had to help her back to solid ground, very unusual, then it was gone in a night thank god.
The crocus came through ok really amazing how resilient plants are, nice to feel warmer air today, the beast from the east can now go back to just being the EU.
On 05 Mar 2018, Gordon(north of Alloa) non sub wrote:
Craig-I totally agree. People have a tendency to not drive to the conditions or think in advance when on the roads, oblivious as they are to the repercussions. The councils did an admirable job and for once there were no reports of having run out of salt/grit. I still don't understand the delay in the met office posting a red warning for this area, I drove the m80/m876/m9 corridor on Tuesday night and was down to 30mph following a gritter for a number of miles in whiteout conditions yet they left it until well after people had made it to work the next day before giving the most severe of warnings. We've had a pretty slow but steady melt since this afternoon, snow showers turned to icy sleety rain around 5pm, now a positively tropical 3 degrees at midnight.
On 04 Mar 2018, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
THANKS ALL for superb REPORTS and espec Craig - I see your are starting collecting material for our coming (in the mind so far) exhibition: The-Beast-From-The-East Requiem for the Man-Made-(LOL) Global Warming Delusion - with the symphony too (to be written) - see my twitter feed @Piers_Corbyn. Also see twitter and HomePage RHS for combating BBC disgraceful lies + #FakeScience that CO2 AGW somehow caused the freeze up. +=+=+=+= **ALL** YES THAT'S YOU NOTICE THE COLD-BLAST / SPRING **50%OFF** DEALS WILL END AND PRICES WILL GO UP DURING MONDAY. So Hurry get weather-wiser. Thank you PC
On 04 Mar 2018, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
OTHER MATTERS... This BeastFromTheEast was a rare event certainly for South UK which is why it's exciting and not (until now) worth investing much in defence machinery which in this case would have been mostly idle for 7 years - the last BIG ONE being Dec 2010 which you may notice is the 7 year repeat cycle of approx same-season stratospheric winds (3x2.33=7). The other reasons for Snow crisis UK when it snows is we don't have enough 'bank' holidays so millions of people especially children and teachers LOOK FORWARD to SnowDays off, EVEN WHEN THEY COULD GET TO WORK. Our WeatherAction long range forecasts are used by road-salting service providers (not the Councils who contract out the job of salting in advance for salt to be spread when needed) who buy in salt pre-season based on our whole winter forecasts so they are ready. Salting on main roads and most town main pavements+railway platforms was pretty well done this time. As we go further into MIA more equipment will be useful.
On 04 Mar 2018, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
MIKE Yes the SSWs - Sudden Stratospheric Warmings or WAVES as I call them are solar effects & firstly come in the Upper stratosphere (Press 1mb-5mb) & transmit downwards. The heat involved is vsmall compared with the heat in the troposphere the air being so thin and they are of no importance to weather levels (troposphere) until they reach the lower stratosphere - at say 50mb or 100mb and then transmit a wave effect down which makes the JetStream extra wavy. I pointed this out some years ago so everyone getting excited by an upper SSW was daft unless it transmitted down - & they don't all do that. Look at the graphs on LHS of home page near bottom and you see that this lower SSW was preceded by a number of upper ones which did not progress right down. The appearance of an upper SSW enables standard Meteo to use the usual delays (days/weeks) to forecast waves that might come down and have effect but there will be false alarms as there were this year. It's NOT a surface effect going up.
On 04 Mar 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
I collated some reports, videos and stats here === https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2018/03/04/the-remarkable-blizzard-and-beast-of-2018/
On 04 Mar 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Now to the beast itself. It was remarkable and memorable. Anyone who says otherwise because of flake envy should move to Canada or shut up and this is why;
+Coldest 28th of February since 1785 in Central England
+Coldest March day since 1878
+6th in the all time coldest weeks (23rd February – 1st March) since 1772
+Lowest maximum temp for March in a 24 hour period. (Tredegar S.Wales -4.7 °C)
Some fairy that is!! Here we had about 6 inches over the days but impossible to tell as the snow was dry and blew everywhere the first few days only really accumulating as it became wet on Friday. Drifts easily to a foot in places. Non stop snow from Wednesday night into Friday morning as even when the bands passed over we had constant snizzle in the face. I get the feeling though that winter has not quite given up the ghost and we could have one or two more late season snow events, although not of the same magnitude. Looking back at the archives they do keep repeating.
On 04 Mar 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
*They were even having this debate after the winter of 1962-3 ===
https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2018/03/04/watch-bbc-the-big-freeze-of-1963-remembered/ === Highly recommend watching as it shows what a stunner that winter was. Unlike then this spell was forecast well so many that got caught have to ask themselves was the journey worth it? I stocked up in advance and warned those who needed it. No panic just being sensible and not putting others at risk. Sadly many wait until the last minute. We have to hope for their sake we don't get a 1946-7 or 1962-3 again, although when you see the videos from Irma and Harvey there are always those that act that way no matter where you are.
On 04 Mar 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
eastside - if you come out all guns blazing then expect people to fire back at you. There is no ad hominems but your tone is not exactly conducive to conversation. As as has been said we agree with you. Keep the tone cordial we really don't want to have to jump in on this. It' actually a good debate as preparedness is an ongoing theme in this country , the same was said after the 87 and 91 winters* and they were pretty exceptional and rare...and that's the point, rare ...for now. The other thing to consider is we are still having massive cuts to public services (I'll leave reasons but it is what it is) so where would we get the money? I do have to say most councils did grit and did a fair job, however far too many were people making unnecessary journeys putting themselves at risk acting like the moron I saw taking a corner far too fast in fresh snow and skid halfway across the road and easily could have hit me and the kid.....
On 04 Mar 2018, Gordon (north of Alloa) non sub wrote:
Eastside-you do make valid points at times but it's the way you put it, as if everything anyone else says on the subject is wrong, even if they are agreeing with you which you would find I have done a couple of times. Correct the uk needs to get more prepared for it as it is going to become more of a regular occurrence but historically there has been no need to until recently. I personally have a spare set of wheels for my car with skinny winter tyres that go on in November and stay on until April and I am lucky enough to have vast experience of driving in horrendous snow and ice conditions in Norway, The alps and Canada unlike the majority of uk drivers. Yes the authorities need to start being more consciencious in regards to preparation as this type of event is going to become more of a problem. Last time I checked the uk and France are definitely not on the same latitude unless someone's moved it, but if you mean longitude, there's also vast swathes of Africa on that one.
On 04 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, just an ESE breeze now, overcast and not feeling too cold, thaw slowly setting in. Max temp 2˚ all day and by 9pm, long snow shower before lunch, turning to rain in the afternoon and continuing into the evening, by which time the snow is now seriously melting, if it carries on like this it’ll all be gone by tomorrow night, freezing looks unlikely, phew! MO predicting a wet week.
On 04 Mar 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
A few light snow showers this morning but as with the later snow showers yesterday they were wetter in nature and more sleety than snow this morning, in conjuction with the progressive slight rise in temp and possibly cloud cover too maybe even warmer ground temp this time of year is helping the snow to slowly but surely melt despite the lack of any sunshine. 4 deg now at 9.20pm cloudy with more showers due tonight.
On 04 Mar 2018, eastside wrote:
I learnt it a long time ago.
No exceptions here, you stop looking and listening to the valid points I make here about how we routinely cope with snow conditions much worse than you had last week in the UK, & GO AD HOMINEM.
If that's your answer, it shows you have no valid arguments.
AD HOMINEM is always from people who have nothing to say.
Burying your head in the sand is a typical British thing, but as this winter is merely a small foretaste of things to come, perhaps in next years you will start to think about some of the things I did say.
Of course if the UK WANTS to lose 1 billion a day it's fine by me. It would pay for an awful lot of snow ploughs..EQUIPPED WITH SNOW TYRES, not the junk they had out last week.
Just look at how the French do it, as I said.
Proper snow equipment, + in snow ABS & WIDE TYRES are totally useless.
Don't turn, leave heavy SUVs with fat tyres at home, and CADENCE BRAKING is the thing.
Time for the British to start learning instead of lect
On 04 Mar 2018, Bill S (NE Wales) wrote:
A mix of early drizzle / rain and snow , mid day fog heavy rain and now late afternoon sun. Such is the beauty of British weather. The last week I’ve just discovered a new weather phenomenon.it’s an irritating nagging draft of hot air from the east that usually coincides during or after a cold spell. I call the pest from the east.
Ps Eastside try and expand your language to exclude inflammatory language including your capitals abbreviations.There are some house rules and I find some of your language offensive and potentially off putting fit new readers.
On 04 Mar 2018, eastside wrote:
There was one more comment I needed to add,-
In France,(you know that place on the same latitude across the channel that gets so much unpredictable snow their EUROSTAR got locked in the channel tunnel as it melted!), they also don't always get everything right.
However, there is 1 important thing they DO sort out.
When there is an important risk of the snowfall being difficult to clear,-
1/ YOU ARE NOT ALLOWED TO DRIVE WITHOUT PROPER EQUIPMENT. If you do, you will be fined,& in an accident as in Switzerland you won't be insured...
2/ ALL lorries & HGV are ALL universally sidelined into proper parking until the storm subsides.
Invariably it's the trucks sliding around &/or losing every grain of common sense that blocks motorways/A roads..
3/ snow clearing equipment is immediately available in the heavy snow areas. If you get into trouble, YOU WAIT FOR THE SNOW PLOW TO COME, & pull over to get out of the way.
4/ Areas for CHAINAGE, are clearly marked on maps.
DISCIPLINE no
On 04 Mar 2018, eastside wrote:
Thanks for another dose of Brit bollox!
"it really isn’t worth reading or responding to Eastside's rants, he does this every winter, he has a serious chip on his shoulder about everything British!"
"I've noticed eastsides rantings over the years, I realise responding is a pointless exercise,"
You obviously don't pay attention to the news very much.
The latest figures bandied about are, the UK lost 1billion a day with the "BAD WEATHER" ..yep"the wrong kind of snow", always the fault of anyone but themselves, & in the next breath, guess where they will unload their bad faith?
ONTO THE INSURANCE COMPANIES of course, whereas those companies don't have the balls to tell people,- if you venture out into the snow without the right equipment it's your own fault!
As for the so called VAST amounts of "special UK quality snow" impossible to predict where it will fall?
Well I get really peed off reading this stuff, cos I'm actually British & drive a lot in same snow every winter NO PR
On 04 Mar 2018, Gordon (north of Alloa) non sub wrote:
Andy-yup, people are very blinkered and if they can't see something right in front of their faces they assume it's not true, definitely been severe here as well, coldest feeling air I've felt here for a long time but not particularly severe true temps. The wind has been brutally cutting and for a few days the snow was relentless. It's still snowing and the light floaty flakes have got bigger but there was a burst of very wet snow this morn so where snow had been cleared, the light top up it got has been melted, hasn't done much to the rest but it means the roads are now in a much better condition. I've noticed eastsides rantings over the years, I realise responding is a pointless excercise, again, my bad. Gerry-Someone on the Beeb dared to go off script and it was televised? I think the usual suspects mr watts speaks are afraid they may be hit by the toys that the orange toddler throws out of his pram on a regular basis.
On 04 Mar 2018, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:
And there it was, all gone by early afternoon and then the rain came. After a sunny start this morning the cloud has brought rain and the freezing temperatures have gone. Anyone watch the BBC4 3 parter on temperature? I was ready for the inevitable when Dr Czerski moved onto why is the Earth warmer than it should be and the 'greenhouse effect' but...she actually said water vapour and not CO2 is the driver! Interesting series. And hot - temperature, hot, geddit? - news from Anthony Watts is that after the usual suspects had raged against his Surface Stations crowd project pointing out how poor surface temperature measurement was and is, they now agree with him and are proposing to set a new standard for recording data. I wonder how they will fiddle that when required and if their admission that the current stations are unreliable has anything to do with the new broom in the White House?
On 04 Mar 2018, Andy (Chiltern Hills) wrote:
Still a full snow cover on fields and gardens although temp rose to 1 degree Saturday. Thick fog Sunday morning. A lot of people have been saying that this latest weather event wasn’t very severe but I can confirm that in this area it has been generally regarded as very severe with temperatures below freezing all last week and lots of snow. On a separate matter it really isn’t worth reading or responding to Eastsides rants, he does this every winter, he has a serious chip on his shoulder about everything British!
On 04 Mar 2018, Gordon (north of Alloa) non sub wrote:
BillS-apologies for feeding the troll, my bad. We've had the exact opposite here, very little in the way of frost but a steady stream of squalls coming in over the North Sea gathering pace and strength as they collected moisture from the forth estuary. Reached a very mild 1.6 degrees here today but with the wind still gusting up to around 10-15mph it still felt around -3/-4. David re snow melt, I would've normally accounted the melt to some sort of sublimation rather than regular thaw but with the lack of sun it's odd. We've had a mild degree of this here as well, it's like a recession/shrinking of the top layers rather than an actual melt as there's been very little moisture left behind and we've still been getting the odd burst of pea snow with very very light snow flakes floating in the air constantly all day. Very strange behaviour, must be all that Co2 driven global warming.
On 04 Mar 2018, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:
This easterly spell brought some of the coldest feeling air I can recall since 1987 but not great amounts of snow. In fact the snow started to melt yesterday even though temps were below freezing which seemed odd, given there was no sunshine at all. Driest snow I can ever recall though. I still believe that next winter will bring worse in terms of prolonged Very cold spells. In reality this was a short sharp blast.
On 03 Mar 2018, BillS(NE Wales) wrote:
A cold and grey day throughout.Temps -1 to +1C very slight melting mid afternoon. Light winds by afternoon still easterly though it’s been memorable for the cold this late in the season( by that Imean persistent frost(nearly 48hrs)).with regards snow not really 2013 was more epic for here. Usually the comments are very relevant and I read them all, however this is the first time I feel the need to say that east sides comments are really pathetic :- away and whinge somewhere else.
On 03 Mar 2018, Gordon (north of Alloa) non sub wrote:
...cont. it's obvious that you didn't read my earlier post from the 2nd where I agreed with you but pointed out some fairly logical things you don't seem to be taking into account. In short, the uk is not prepared for such events as it's not used to them, and even piers will admit that predicting exactly where they will hit is not particularly easy given the nature of the islands topography and location. I totally agree that we need to be more prepared as these events are gointg to become more of a regular occurrence but due to people's reliance on the msm for their weather forecasts and news whilst simultaneously disbelieving the reports it's going to take a minor miracle for the masses to listen to the few outlets that actually speak the truth. I subscribe sporadically due to finances but am 100% prepared for the changing climate thanks to folks like piers and my own logical observations and understanding of true evidence based science not agenda based.
On 03 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, snow is now turning wet as temps are slowly rising. Overcast, wind has lessened and is now coming more from SSE, snow showers mostly in the morning, A90 is clear, though many side roads are still snowy, we have certainly escaped the worst even if on our hill we have about 5” of snow. Max temp 2˚, down to 0˚ again by 9pm. MO is forecasting sleet and then rain by late tomorrow night, so all the pristine white will become a slushy mess by Monday and if it freezes A&E will be busy again.
On 03 Mar 2018, Gordon (north of Alloa) non sub wrote:
Eastside-are you a traffic warden? Or an Mp? The epic levels of snow was in reference to the several feet of snow in places caused by major drifting. The shelves are bare of fresh produce due to the deliveries not getting through in time, massive amounts of food which can go bad if not used in time or frozen produce that can't be sold if it thaws sitting in the back of a truck for too long, surely you are aware of this concept. Again, events like we have seen in the uk this week have been due to a rapid change in weather conditions and up until now are very very rare in the uk especially so in a country with an already screwed economy, having the equipment to deal with such events sitting around for ten years doing nothing is not exactly logical is it. i agree we need to be more prepared but again, with the msm overhyping winter weather year on year, you can understand people not taking it seriously and being caught unawares. Oh and I'm in Scotland NOT England
On 03 Mar 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Went for a nice walk in the snow yesterday aft. wind was blowing the snow in our faces, left the lil one with her dad and off we trekked having a lil Alaska moment, drifts up on the verges and across the fields looked like a winter wonderland, road was total white and only one set of tractor tracks. Navigated the kids as when its that white all thought of ditches and such go out of their minds, we looked for animal tracks and made a snowman and then went for a bit of a jog home to warm up. Melting slowly today and light snow showers on n off still lots of snow around to melt over next day or so. 3 deg feeling colder at 7.30pm
On 03 Mar 2018, eastside wrote:
"Epic levels of snow in places down to around 6inches.The community spirit shown during this period..has been astounding with everyone digging in(literally) & folk clearing streets, one of my neighbours borrowed a JCB from his work..
Shelves bare due to lack of deliveries. Currently 1 degree, still feels much colder. "
All crazy in England.
In Alsace you can get a FINE if you don't clear the snow in front of your house.Community spirit? WTF?
You have to ply the guy a FIVER in Eastern Europe if you want your own garage space cleared..
Shelves bare WTF?
NEVER ever seen it anywhere else except wonderful UK.
Why didn't they put extra stock on the shelves when they were told to expect heavy snow?
ANTICIPATION is the name of the game!
I can't remember when Domodevo or Tallinn airports were closed down more than a few hrs.
Public officials shld be sued for NEGLIGENCE.
They do nothing when told a good week in advance they have to put all 38ton trucks into layby like in they
On 03 Mar 2018, Gordon (north of Alloa 200ft) non sub wrote:
Finally managed to dig the car out today and made it out. Council have done a great job of clearing the roads now that the snow has abated here in the shire, still getting showers of pea snow and light flakes, sometimes quite heavy but nothing like the constant whiteout squall conditions we had tues/wed/thurs. Epic levels of snow in places down to around 6inches where the wind had scoured the open spaces. 5-6ft piles of cleared snow beside the main roads where they have been particularly exposed. Most side roads and streets are filled in. The community spirit shown during this period up here has been astounding with everyone digging in(literally) and folknoit clearing streets, one of my neighbours borrowed a JCB from his work yesterday and made our street passable. I would say that whoever cleared the Tesco car park in Alloa should have done it themself and not let their guide dog drive the digger. Shelves bare due to lack of deliveries. Currently 1 degree, still feels much colder.
On 03 Mar 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Here in NW London, we have had a cold windy snap with a bit of snow, but less than fell on December 10th 2017, so not even the biggest snow event of the winter. iPad pictures taken both times. Mostly here it was a biting Easterly wind, the odd teracotta pot overturned, my spring lean-to blown into the neighbour's fence, but no threat to balance, trees or masonry. 5 nights of frosts and 60hrs odd of temps continually below freezing. Snow will be fully melted by tomorrow....
So it appears that it was actually Storm Emma which caused most snow down south, the beast from the East really only being beastly in NE England and Scotland (where Glenshee and Lecht ski area access roads shut for three days and impressive levels of snow banking up).
On 03 Mar 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
A full Moon usually heralds stable weather but not always. Depends a lot on the season. But could that stability reduce precipitation patterns over land?
On 03 Mar 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Craig350 .... Dry air small flakes hmmmm? Strange phenomenomenon(sic) time. Very cold like -8C (t-shirt and shorts in Croatia), and around -1C to -3C over the North Sea. It was snowing over the sea and over the coast but as the cloud swept inland, on winds of different sppeds as the days went by, it stopped snowing. And this went on for days. Only when there was thicker cloud and a slower windspeed did the snow fall farther inland and this fell in a very random manner. I wonder, seeing as the wind, cold and cloud levels were virtually unchanging for many days, what effect the full Moon had on snowfall. As the Moon swings through the Earth's magnetotail it's surface is electrically charged, enough to suspend dust above the surface, but what effect might this have on our precipitation levels? It has to change the charge levels in Earth's atmosphere. Piers? You're the expert on the effects of the Moon on our weather...do you have an answer?
On 03 Mar 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Sou'wester.... I get my info and photo's from my daughter who lives in Axminster, Devon about 6 miles from the south coast. They had around 3 to 4 inches but the radar said much deeper farther inland.....Quote: "Devon got a good dollop of several inches right down to within a few miles of the coast.".......We norveners got another inch or so and plenty of black ice this morning but its mostly down to an inch of icy slush on the roads as of 2pm. Still 5 inches deep on the bins at the side of the house though, so maybe more getting blown around than there is melting. We were intending venturing out for a walk on the moors but when I spotted a warning that a road not 7 miles away is closed - blocked by snow - we decided against it. The only way to get to the moors from home is uphill about 500ft of ascent which can mean the difference between tarmac and Antarctica when there's snow around.
On 03 Mar 2018, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:
A bit of snow in London but enough for it to be called 'severe weather conditions' at London Bridge station. I wonder how they will describe severe weather when we get some? Probably all be closed down with nobody there to describe it. Southern trains online effort was a shambles. In the evening it was still showing morning trains. Lucky for those of us who did go into work that many didn't or had left early so the waiting crowds were not excessive. Third rail conditions were poor with lots of arcing and the latest trains do draw more power but where were the de-icing trains Network Rail? I wonder if it will be better when the switch is made to overhead lines at some future point as third rail has reached its limit? Not much extra snow for me and at 40F this morning it is melting on tarmac. Roads were easy to drive on last night as mainly just wet.
On 02 Mar 2018, Andy (Chiltern Hills) wrote:
Local roads covered in snowdrifts this morning then started to snow heavily again mid afternoon for approx 7 hours giving another 4 or 5 inches of snow which is drifting, temps not above -2 all day
On 02 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30 and staying at that all day, not much new snow, somewhat less windy, overcast and without any sun, almost feeling mild at times though, fewer snow showers than yesterday.
On 02 Mar 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Nicholas - Liam Dutton commented on Twitter last night "the greatest supply of dry air is towards the east, which is why it's most effective at nibbling away at the moisture here. Further west, there's a greater depth of moisture, so it's where the heaviest snow is falling"'
On 02 Mar 2018, BillS (NE Wales) wrote:
This area has escaped fairly lightly. There was about 6 hours light steady snow last night (thurs) with very strong easterly winds This gave boot deep “promenade sand drifts” of snow. Subzero until early afternoon today peaking about 1c Tonight is a repeat performance stillwindy from the east, but lighter snow and again sub zero -2c ( wind chill -5)
On 02 Mar 2018, Helen (Leitrim, Ireland, sub) wrote:
Well, waiting for the blizzard last night, but we didn't get much of it up here. Winds took a while to pick up and not much extra snow, but continuing very gusty all day, and feeling very cold. Temp actually about 1 deg today, 0 overnight. Snow gradually melting but didn't go out. Wed night was worse with min of -5.5 and more snow, and yesterday's temp around -2. Sounds like you got more of a snow hit, Maria. Belated congrats on your new baby, by the way!
On 02 Mar 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Haha I #💚 this country/calling it #Christmasthesequel peeps in Ireland having some good craic putting back up their xmas decs 😂🎄⛄❄
On 02 Mar 2018, michaelb wrote:
❄Wessex/Mercia border 600'asl ☃
Winter wonderland today [looks positively Siberian ☺], and much clearing of paths and digging out of cars. Toboggans everywhere and all the kids having great fun. The side roads are full of snow between the drystone walls and impassable to all but tractors, main roads are workable. Snow drifts feet high in the valleys. Temps up to 28/29F this afternoon, the wind has eased off, and the snow has just stopped this evening.
Shame we can't post pics… Piers??)
❄Regards to all, M❄
On 02 Mar 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Ps Just want to say Thanks Piers your heads up was fab and thanks to your forecast I had been slowly re stocking up on a few essentials that we would usually have let run low towards Spring over the last few weeks and with a newborn on board it has made the last couple of days well chilled ( no pun intended!-) Thanks again 😉
On 02 Mar 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Snowing mostly all morning and now the wind has dropped off a bit and its not blowing around quite as much as it was it is sticking well to the laying snow, our garden rockery wall around 2 foot high has disappeared and there are many drifts in the garden, still snowing now at 3pm All supermarkets shut and Dublin airport till Sat. Also had some up chuck of sea ice and around 123,000 homes were without power I think 97,000 homes back on, like uk prob most schools shut and may not re-open Monday ( i'm sure you can hear my kids cheering in the background :)) Government has informed us our curfew is over although red warning still in place :) Only traffic up our country road has been a tractor so far today.
On 02 Mar 2018, Nicholas Harrison wrote:
Thank you Russ. That makes a lot of sense. I'd never questioned where the radar might be pointing or what level of the atmosphere it might be reading. The wind last night was really blowing, the grains that did land were really small and sometimes rather wet, given that the temp was showing at 0 degrees. So it being blown around and not landing, coupled with how the various systems interpret the data makes great sense.
And if I can throw in a couple of words on meteogroup. *snigger*. It's the only app I have which "forecasts". Sent my son back to Canterbury early on Tuesday as it showed heavy snow from 14.30 to 15:00. It did arrive - 5 hours late. But it had been showing the same forecast for 24 hours before. Wednesday it showed what I presume was storm Emma hitting. This didn't arrive until Thursday - with the effects as described. BBC & meteogroup = deserving. Pity the rest of the people.
On 02 Mar 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
After the earlier 'Get home by 6pm or die' headline today we have Southern saying complete your journey by 3pm or don't expect to see your family again. It is 14:04 and no snow in the City. I had to go on site this morning and it wasn't that cold with a very fine drizzle as opposed to snow. South-west trains are shutting down at 8pm apparently. Southern use the MetO for information. Round my way it doesn't look that snowy anymore but there is more a bit further up the line. Roads absolutely fine. Has the R period ended as the solar wind is back to the resting levels? Watching Netweather radar the pattern has changed and the heavier yellow parts have gone as the time advances. At 1400 the band looks to passing south of London but a green blob is coming along probably for about 4ish?
On 02 Mar 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
We have steady melting happening. Still a bitter, strong wind. Radar reckons -3C and light snow from midnight here. The Midlands as a whole will see several hours of light snow again later today....allegedly!
On 02 Mar 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Nicholas.... I agree that the rain radars are often hit & miss. The raintoday site has a seemingly incurable problem (throttled server bandwidth or scripting error?) which is OK every morning but freezes any time after that, Always seems to happen sooner on rainy days, hence busy days. On fine days it seems to work alright, which makes me think there's a problem with a server cache filling up or some such problem. They've been trying to fix it forever but I have the feeling they might be looking for a key under a mat for a keyless door...! Their rainfall radar shows pale yellow for drizzle but this is a little hit & miss, depending on whether its windy, cold, warm, high or low pressure. Maybe it sees drizzle falling but sometimes the drizzle doesn't reach the ground. A lot can change for those tiny drops while falling 6,000 feet. Ventusky also seems to make errors until you use the GFS layer which is less pessimistic and mostly more accurate.
On 02 Mar 2018, Sou'wester (Devon/Cornwall border, sub) wrote:
Russ, don't know where you got your info on Devon from. We've had PLENTY of snow down here, with the sea chucking up ice in the squalls. Yesterday was rather like how Maria described it in her patch, but windier. About 30K homes have been w/o elec. Pipes burst at SW regional hospital (Derriford in Plymouth) and all ops cancelled. Plymouth cut off from train services and most main routes closed. Banks shut yesterday afternoon along with a lot of shops. Our pipes frozen at work so we couldn't draw water for tea or use the toilet, so we got sent home after lunch. Still there, too icy to go out,
On 02 Mar 2018, M Lewis wrote:
Here is a link to General Atlantic website who own Meteogroup.
http://www.generalatlantic.com/people/
Interesting to note who all the directors of the company are. I wonder what their views are on man made global warming and whether any of them support evidence based science? Presumably they all drive big cars in the USA and don't have a problem with fossil fuels? Their EMEA director Gabriel Caillaux is based at Savile Row in London.
On 02 Mar 2018, Gordon (North of Alloa 200ft) non sub wrote:
Eastside, you're entirely missing the point. You do realise you are preaching to the converted right? My point was, at present, of the millions of people that live in the uk, only a small percentage listen to what Piers says, the vast majority are still oblivious to the truth and are spoon fed their info from an overly sensationalist media who say EVERY winter is going to be the worst. By the very nature of St Petersburg being "the worst and most unpredictable" makes it far more predictable that this COULD happen there, and in the past 30yrs, how many times has it had major snow and temps below freezing? It's only been a handful of times for vast areas of the uk, therefore you ARE far more prepared. I too have been warning people that this was going to happen and I myself am prepared for such events as I am well aware they are going to become more regular. Well done convincing your family in the uk to be prepared as the majority of sheeple would have dismissed you.
On 02 Mar 2018, Nicholas Harrison wrote:
Sometime after the winter of 2010, when I started following this page and Piers, there was a period of snow. Piers had predicted snow on two occasions for Eastbourne, and both times he was correct. On one particular night with snow forecast by others, I kept tuning into the radar. I only had a rain radar at that time. It showed that we were continually under precipitation. I went outside and there was nothing. I posted on here and Piers was puzzled. Yesterday it happned again. Hours of precipitation moving North, covering Eastbourne, yet nothing outside. The Easterly wind was howling. I wonder if snow or frozen rain did fall, yet because of the wind and our sea level location, most of the snow/ice rain blew elsewhere and never touched the ground. I woke to a few ice grain micro drifts pushed up against the grass. Very interesting.
On 02 Mar 2018, M Lewis wrote:
RE METEOGROUP provide weather forecasting services to the BBC. Our TV licence fee pays for this service. The contract is worth over £30 million.
Meteogroup is owned by General Atlantic, a New York bases private equity fund.
On 02 Mar 2018, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
THANKS ALL FOR SUPERB REPORTS! NOW It's time to subscribe to => www.WeatherAction.com <= TODAY TODAY TODAY NOW IS THE MOMENT! THE #MiniIceAge is HERE NOW! #Prepare for the rest of 2018. #SUBSCRIBE NOW to => http://www.WeatherAction.com <= #GO amazing *50%OFF* deals TODAY. #DESTROY the #CO2 #GlobalWarming #Swindle! Imprison #Climate data fraudsters. #BeastFromTheEast #Blizzards #WildJetStream=#MIA #SSW #wx RT
On 02 Mar 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Thanks Craig 😊 Wow what a night of weather, have not had a chance to see to what extent where across the country but i'm pretty sure we all had a share. The wind and snow got going more so after 8pm with some light snow some heavy but fairly continuous blizzard like at times, a good amount of snow blowing around too that had fallen previous and it looked pretty cool blowing around the fields near us and our garden, felt like a sand snow storm whilst in it and created snow dunes. One minute it was like being in a snow globe next big fluffy flakes though majority here was smaller/medium flakes. Obviously cold though you kind of get used to it quite quickly but then we have the luxury of getting back indoors to warm up by the fire, must have been an awful night if you were stuck out in it 😨 -2 with a real feel of -15 according to my phone, not been out yet this morn. so will go explore with our kids cept for the lil one who prefers the warm. Red warning extended till 6pm
On 02 Mar 2018, eastside wrote:
" while it's all well and good when you're in a country that's used to these conditions & can predict when & where they will hit on a regular basis"...
SORRY it's nonsense.
Piers has been warning about this for weeks.
You were all warned at least a week in advance what is going to happen.
I was on here only a few days ago to say the meteo have got it all wrong,-predicting a mere 3 days event with little problem.That's the bit that's unacceptable.
I warned my daughter a week prior to the events TELL ALL YOUR FRIENDS get ready!
They live on the river*.Nobody else gave them a proper warning, - so as she believed me not the media, they all got LOADS OF COAL in (cheaper a week ago!).
End of story they are all warm & happy, big thanks etc. Btw they all live in LONDON*!
As for OUR weather.It's well known St Peterburg weather is some of the worst, most unpredictable about.
The proof,-we had almost NO SNOW 5 weeks ago, then this easterly current set in & a big freeze came>
On 02 Mar 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
The geniuses were right, and who didn't factor in the persistent easterlies...Doh!. Devon got a good dollop of several inches right down to within a few miles of the coast. Looks like Ireland is vying for the next winter olympics. I see 30cm on the radar but its not that unusual looking back over their records. No more here in Derbyshire, although some was still sprinkling to the west of us overnight. Just cold and very windy.
On 02 Mar 2018, Gordon (north of Alloa 200ft) non sub wrote:
To conclude, media overload, inconsistent info from the mainstream weather forecasters, drivers not educated enough due to little to no previous experience of such conditions, people too much in their own little bubbles to think ahead, people not realising that 5 miles up the road the weather can be so much worse and just general rubbish luck. My apologies guys, eastside included, just been watching question time, Farage was on it, needed a rant. Finally got a break in the snow squalls, I have no steps to my house anymore and my car looks like a weird giant meringue. -3, knee deep snow and the wind is howling and blowing icy razor powder everywhere. Stay safe those of you who get hit.
On 02 Mar 2018, Gordon (north of Alloa 200ft) non sub wrote:
There's also the cry wolf aspect in that, the media overhype the chance of these events every year and the people become oblivious to it so when a real major change does happen, they are woefully underprepared or utter panic sets in. On Wednesday at 12pm the met office issued a red warning for central Scotland based on a seemingly endless ribbon of convective snow showers coming in off the North Sea. The response from the media was to tell everyone that had already made it in to work to go home immediately or they wouldn't make it. A couple of jackknifed lorries when the snow hit (remember, convective) on a notorious weather collecting section of the m80 resulted in a 10 mile tailback in increasingly inclement conditions and 100s of people stuck for up to 14hrs. Winter tyres wouldn't have helped them, maybe putting the red warning out the previous night would have. And remember sudden snow causes pile ups in the most prepared areas of the world, all it takes is one mistake.
On 02 Mar 2018, Gordon (north of Alloa 200ft) non sub. wrote:
David-glad you liked that. Eastside, while it's all well and good when you're in a country that's used to these conditions and can predict when and where they will hit on a regular basis (e.g. in the arctic circle in winter and on a mahoosive land mass) to act all high and mighty and give it all the "we cope just fine" comments, spare a thought for the folks on a tiny island surrounded by converging currents both in the air and sea where it is notoriously difficult to calculate. I totally agree with your point re winter tyres (apart from the studs, they're illegal in the uk) but the majority of drivers here have no clue what to do in these conditions and if they made winter tyres mandatory as they are in so many other eu states, everyone would continue to drive in the blasé and inconsiderate manner they were used to and the outcome of that doesn't bare thinking about. Yes we need to get used to it but the point is, we aren't. Cont...
On 01 Mar 2018, Andy (Chiltern Hills) wrote:
Blizzard conditions from mid afternoon onwards, still the same 9hrs later with substantial snowdrifts forming and temperatures not getting above -3 all day, I don’t think I will risk the A41 tomorrow, I believe a Snow Day is looking likely😀
On 01 Mar 2018, eastside wrote:
"Looks positively Baltic out there"
haha!
Nice one.
No in fact here all is wonderfully calm now in the Baltic.
Sea has frozen to the horizon now.
Gorgeous sunshine, clear moonlight, the wind has gone, & left us with cold clear weather, all the way from St Petersburg to Tallinn + Helsinki.
Tomorrow will be a fantastic full moon, to be followed by another small solar wind peak in about 2 days.
Funnily enough auroral activity is already back up to 30Gw.
That means the high winds we had, you had 48hrs later, so next will be a period of calm.
Enjoy it while you can, we have more snow on its way to you next week, which enables you to "get a grip".
Pass the parcel chaps!
FYI, Take some lessons from us,-
Stop sliding around on summer tyres or dreaming about snow chains.
I've never ever used 'em, & decades of RWD Soviet Ladas never did either.
Small narrow really biting winter compounds work with studs if neccessary.
Forget summer stuff, you'll just end up killing some
On 01 Mar 2018, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:
Gordon - That Piers # comment proper made me chuckle. On a serious note If anyone goes near a town or city tommorrow buy a hot drink for homeless person . Just 1 good deed might help save a life. Stretch to some hot food if you can.
On 01 Mar 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-3˚C at 7.30, same conditions as yesterday, i.e. strong E’ly wind, frequent snow showers, not quite as many sunny intervals though, max temp 1˚ around midday, warming somewhat, relatively speaking, towards evening, so wondering whether we’ll get some more massive snow, -2˚ at 9.30pm. MO has now extended its yellow snow warning to Monday - at the beginning of the week it was only Tues & Wed that had yellow markers.
On 01 Mar 2018, michaelb wrote:
Wessex/Mercia borders 600'asl
Snow constant this afternoon, 3-4" on the ground in sheltered areas but very little in exposed open areas. Strong gusting easterly continues. Temps around 24F. Hard packed snow and getting icy on the main roads, but very little traffic. Looks positively Baltic out there…
Regards, m
On 01 Mar 2018, Gordon (north of Alloa 200ft) non sub wrote:
Apologies for the troll accusation Bradley, I was getting confused with the naysayers on here, A couple of folk made the fairy comment but yours was the only one I could find when I scanned back, my bad. Definitely isn't a fairy, it actually seems to have been getting worse all day, -1 and another white out at present (5.20pm) contrary to the forecasts. Can someone explain why the forecast services seem to be completely ignoring their own precip radars and making it up as they go along?
On 01 Mar 2018, Gordon (north of Alloa, 200ft) non sub wrote:
Hi all, hope everyone's staying safe. Haven't posted for a while but have been following the discussions. Bradley, you're just a troll, I would like you to tell the 100s of people stuck on the m8 for upwards of 8hrs that this beast is a fairy. Over a foot of level snow here and still falling (I use the term loosely) in regular blizzards, filling in the foot deep footprints every time. If it was not for the wind strength I estimate there would be at least 2ft level, in the 30yrs I've lived here I've only ever experienced snow like this when I've ventured north to cairngorm or glencoe/Nevis range. Funny how netweather and accuweather are saying for the next 6 hrs I shouldn't have any yet their radar and the fact I can't see the trees across the road say other wise. Tbf, their forecast has changed more times in the past 2days than Piers has used hashtags. Steady stream of convective "showers" heading in my direction.
On 01 Mar 2018, C View wrote:
40cm lying snow in Inverclyde with many side roads full of 1 metre drifts
On 01 Mar 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
It looks like the snow is melting but its not. It is instead getting blown around by a strong wind which moves it from the tops of walls and car roofs and tucks it away on peoples hedged gardens out of sight..... RON .even monitoring the radar sites for temperature changes, precipitation, humidity, wind strength and snow cover, it is still difficult to predict even 3 or 4 hours ahead. Just when it looks as if the clouds are thinning and the precipitation is stopping, a great dollop of cloud rolls in, the wind picks up, and down it comes again. All the cloud from the south was supposed to head westward and hit the west country and south Wales but it decided to thwart the Met geniuses and go directly to Aviemore, spreading east and west as it progresses. Its also building and unloading more heavily as it races up the country. Six hours ago I expected it to miss the north completely, at least today. Extremely unpredictable.
On 01 Mar 2018, JohnE wrote:
The Met Office says the cold weather could last into next week and possibly the following week.
BBC Weather's Ben Rich predicted "blizzard conditions" by Thursday evening across south-west England, Wales and parts of the Midlands.
He said a "biting easterly wind" will make it feel like -11C (12F) in Birmingham and Cardiff - on what is the first day of meteorological spring.
There is potential for up to 50cm (19.6 inches) of snow over parts of Dartmoor and Exmoor, the Met Office added, with up to 20cm (7.8 inches) falling in southern England, Wales and the West Midlands.
On 01 Mar 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
The train conductor commented on the lack of snow on the platforms as we headed south. Most of the snow has been blown away by the strong wind that came in late evening and overnight. With the roads being clear the Cup game went ahead with flurries of snow throughout. Temp down to 25F. Sheltered shady roads are still icy but the majority are clear. 23F this morning and a chilly wind but no fresh snow. The trains were in chaos due to failures not the weather. The radar suggests the system coming up from Biscay will be west of London and missing my area again. Temp in town just making 30F. That National Grid is warning of gas supply shortage is no surprise as there is very little storage in the UK. We rely on external supplies to keep going. The government let the Rough storage site close. Centrica did not believe it was cost effective to make necessary repairs as the government energy policy makes gas generation marginal.
On 01 Mar 2018, michaelb wrote:
Wessex/Mercia border 600'asl
A thin covering of snow on the ground this morning. More very fine snow granules falling since this afternoon, giving about 1" depth. Winds strong easterly, temps 24F right now. More snow expected from mid afternoon apparently.
Regards
m (30+45day sub)
On 01 Mar 2018, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:
Hi Ron Thanks - Yes an indicator of mini ice age is colder blocked springs/later winters with shifts in the jet stream and seasons. I would in line with Piers thoughts expect more of this on the coming Years. Coldest March day on record today I reckon. In modern era anyway.
On 01 Mar 2018, eastside wrote:
here's some gems for our "GENEVA has a warm winter" numpty,-
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2018/3/1/b2e68ef5-39ad-44a0-bacf-7667d7dd73dd.jpg
https://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/C4D8/production/_100229305_045227271-1.
I can't recall Geneva airport being closed in quite a while.
Hoho!
Meanwhile, back in NORMAL advanced countries like Russia, Baltic states, you know those backward ex-USSR countries!-25C in Moscow goes by like a normal winter day, same here.
No big deal,- even when more than 2m of snow fell recently, next day all was normal again.
Meanwhile back in the world's 5th/6th largest economy, all the schools shut, meteo nanny service says LIFE THREATENING DANGER!
"Gas supply fears as cold snap continues
National Grid has warned it may not have enough gas to meet UK demand on Thursday & has asked suppliers to provide more.
Hey you guys on that little island, can't you afford snow tyres when you are warned 10
On 01 Mar 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
RUSS( Derbyshire) Latest GFS run showing much of northern UK not getting all that very warm in the short/mid term and indeed much of Scotland remaining cold right into mid-March. Having said that, just last week it was predicting a warm spring-like mid month. BRADLEY let's see if the people of the West Country will be agreeing with you by tomorrow morniing. DAVID( Yorkshire) your prediction of a late winter easterly turned out correct and if I remember correctly you are predicting a greater easterly component in next winters weather.
On 01 Mar 2018, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:
Moderate snow all morning now. Another 5cm overnight to make roughly 10 in total but probably around 13 now. Biting wind.
On 01 Mar 2018, M Lewis wrote:
The Rains have come a month early to East Africa - Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. There is heavy rain and violent thunderstorms in these countries. Normally the Rains don't arrive until end of March / April. Meanwhile, there is record heat in Sudan and Egypt. Piers et al is this because of the Jetstream changes?
On 01 Mar 2018, C View wrote:
From the "you couldn't make it up dept." While driving along the M8 yesterday in a blizzard some goon from stop climate change Scotland was telling us that we weren't moving fast enough towards our carbon reduction targets. The irony of his comments seemed entirely lost on both him and the interviewer. Red warning spot on. More snow overnight meant my attempts and driving were in vain. Despite using snow chains the. depth was such that once I had ploughed a wall of snow in front of the car after 100 metres I came to a stop.
On 01 Mar 2018, eastside wrote:
"Overnight low temperatures reached as low as -26 degrees Celsius in parts of Estonia on Tues.
While temperatures are not expected to dip quite so low over the next few days, according to meteorologist Taimi Paljak, temperatures throughout the country are expected to remain steady around -20 degrees."
(7 died of hypothermia)
"Wed night is expected to be cold as well, but unlikely to break the current record low.
Temperatures are nonetheless expected to remain near -20 degrees through the end of the week, however, and while it may warm up again somewhat next week, warmer temperatures won't last long.
It's hard to forecast anything in the long term right now, but weather processes will definitely remain wintry for some time."
Which is exactly what I have been saying.
The prognosis of the UK forecasters has been mostly wrong. They change forecast almost daily.
France is luckier,- arrival of a warmer mediterranean airstream from the south, while in northern Europe it's staying
On 01 Mar 2018, Bill S (NE Wales) wrote:
Obviously cold with a keen “cutting” wind this morning 0630 -5c windchill -9 c Some snow showers during the week, but up to now this neck of the woods has escaped very lightly.( which it seems to being in the shadows of Peaks/Pennines) I for one am not complaining
On 01 Mar 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Hit -9C here around midnight and gentle dustings of extra snow keep coming. Even the clear'ish roads are slippery as the council only seems to be gritting the motorway network. All side roads are treacherous for small lightweight vehicles. We watched a documentary yesterday about the snows of 2009 - 2010 and the same story unfolded of a stuck polar vortex, a warmer Arctic and the whole northern hemisphere like a huge freezer. I believe the 1963 winter was a similar story although they were a bit vague in the detail as weather satellite data was a bit lacking back then. But from the charts it did look like a polar vortex problem swapping westerlies for easterlies. So the big question is this. What is causing the polar vortex to mess up? Is it a teensy weensy bit of gas a'wafting around in the lower atmosphere? Or could it be the weakening of the Sun's magnetic field? You know, that 800,000 km wide star sat on our doorstep? Erm! Let me fink a while and I'll get back to you....
On 01 Mar 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
The max temp here today was -1C with dew points a blistering -5C at their best and dropping down to a jaw dropping (for here) -12C (10F in old money) as the winds temporarily shifted to pure easterly. This is genuinely life threatening dangerous weather. I'm rather sick of the irresponsible dismissals based on seeing a flake or not. There is an awful lot of weather to go still with the larger Sth population affected. We are not prepared for this (we haven't been in my lifetime) in the modern era. Yes in WW2 and the 60's they dealt with it (or else! as I've heard many testify that missing school +walking miles in drifts was expected even if you had to set out at an inordinate hour to get there on time). We are snowflakes(!) in many ways who got too arrogant & cocky with the period of warming we were blessed with. It's only going to get worse - I mean feb 2009 was a supposed wake up call and look what has passed since SC24 descended upon us. Time to wise up.
On 01 Mar 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
"Exposure to snow and cold temperatures can increase the chance of hypothermia, cold related injuries and health complications." What about a lowly yellow? "Between 00:05 Thu 1st and 23:55 Thu 1st
Further snow showers are expected on Thursday, accompanied by very low temperatures. There is the possibility of travel delays on roads, stranding some vehicles and passengers, and delays or cancellations to rail and air travel. Some rural communities could become or remain cut off. Power cuts may occur and other services, such as mobile phones, may be affected." Doesn't sound good for the elderly, those with health issues or even like Maria with newborns (congrats btw Maria, so pleased for you). How can they even get to a doctor. how can a doctor get to them? Start paying attention instead of dismissing because you haven't seen nowt - the MetO (bless them) made it very clear that was the nature of snow showers that band together. The only fairy I see is those flying in your brain.
On 01 Mar 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Bradley - please stop with the melodrama. The weather warnings are changing constantly & fast. Parts of Scotland have a RED warning as does Ireland. Ambers abound. nearly the whole country is under a yellow snow and ice warning at some point this week and they will be amended and upgraded. What does a RED warning mean? "Transport routes and travel services affected for a prolonged period. Long travel delays. Large numbers of stranded vehicles and passengers with widespread disruption to rail, road and air services. Widespread and prolonged interruptions to power and/or other utilities and services. Rural communities cut off for a prolonged period, perhaps several days, due to deep snow or snow drifts." Hmm sounds like fairy weather to me...cont...
On 01 Mar 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Piers called the MIA back in 2013 - moving his prediction up - because of the way the jetstream was behaving. It was not because we had a cold extended winter. So many fail to understand that the LIA patterns do not mean some Dickensian winter wonderland it's about the way the jet behaves and just as it can bring anomalous cold and snow it brings wet (winters 2013-15) and warmth (winters 2015-17) - just as Pepys wrote about. We now look to be in the cold winter phase again. This winter has been very snowy. Usually I get one event, maybe two but this has stretched on into Meteorological spring (I'll count spring starting at the equinox thank you) from December. That's long. As we progress further into the MIA then the potential for long blocking winters will present itself as David rightly highlights.
On 01 Mar 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Piers said (home page) "Piers Corbyn's WeatherAction Major Red Weather (R4) period 27Feb to 3Mar effects are being confirmed by notable extra snow - beyond standard Meteo expectations" === Damn right!! They updated the yellow warning westwards for both tonight and tomorrow. I checked earlier and saw no changes until I checked the radar this eve & saw a band of snow overhead. Sure enough snow is falling and settling fast. Only a cm so far but it's being blown about so difficult to gauge. The latest model predictions are already wrong. A passing shower earlier saw whiteout conditions for a time. As we are now in an active R4 period expect changes and fast. ECMWF threw out a continuation of the cold beyond the weekend with a possibility of further cold and snow as the SSW effects continue to be felt. How this pans out in the days ahead remains to be seen but I remember 2013 confounding the models. They simply are not programmed for this type of jetstream.
On 28 Feb 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Met.ie have now took all their various warnings down and replaced it at 11pm tonight with a country wide status red warning for ice and snow valid from 11pm tonight until 3pm 2nd March
On 28 Feb 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-4˚C at 7.30, wild E’ly wind, but not as much snow yet as forecast, in fact, we got off relatively lightly compared to further inland. Lots of drifting in the frequent showers, where cleared paths become filled again in minutes, also some lovely sunny spells with monumental clouds followed by darkening skies and yet more showers, max temp -1˚, still blowing now at 9.30 and -4˚ again. So far it’s been more of a pussycat rather than the tiger that the Central Belt is going to get tomorrow, though the wind is really biting.
On 28 Feb 2018, Ruairí (East coast of Ireland) wrote:
Very cold in the wind here. Plenty of snow showers dumping lots of powder. Thursday night looks like fun ARPEGE model predicts 20cm+ in many areas. I've the vodka bought so it can do what it likes!
On 28 Feb 2018, eastside wrote:
"we continue to poke the angry beast that is our climate"?
Well being as our climate is a relatively benign animal, the crops grow in abundance, the earth has got a little greener, extreme weather (inc hurricanes) is at an all time low, and we are not living in the 17th/18th century when the Thames froze over...
I'm all for poking a little more at the climate if it can give us more warm weather.
The guys that died this last week - were homeless or in fragile circumstances....
THEY DIED OF COLD.
People usually die of cold and crops fail not from warmth
If this winter becomes more the norm over the next 10-15 years (a high likelihood) then plenty more people will die of cold, unless of course the governments actually begin to understand it's time they tackled the problem
Remember Coluche? He started restaurants du coeur, for ONE WINTER in 1985, after the extreme winter of 1984-85.
We are now more than 30 years later!
Nothing changed.
https://www.restosducoeur.org/
On 28 Feb 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
As for the kids will never see snow comment made many years back on beeb i'd actually say our kids have seen snow as much as I did as a child maybe even more, as I flick back through my hardrive many pics of our kids in a snowy pic, maybe not always a heap of snow but still evident enough for them to know its snow nonetheless. Snowing again now outside if this keeps up i would say it will exceed amounts compared with 2010 although we may not have had the weeks of sustained cold, -3 at 7.39pm feeling like -10
On 28 Feb 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Hey Helen the snow is def. more widespread than first thought though the met here again like with ophelia have given ample prep.time to the point people have mistakenly thought ott with their consistent updates, have also found Irish Weather Online to be even better on this event and more inline with Piers's even earlier heads up, its good to have warning as the small bit of melt we had whereby even 3-4 inches in places on the garden remained though lesser amounts on pathways melted the blizzard outside for the last 20 mins has it a white out again! Off to find our cat b4 it gets dark!
On 28 Feb 2018, Mike Ellwood wrote:
Oxfordshire, OX14
Temp on my outside thermometers not got above -1C today, although BBC weather app indicating colder, and going down to -5/-6C.
Only light snow though.
Needless to say, Guardian headlining with "Artic heatwave triggers climate meltdown fears" in printed edition. Online version:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/27/arctic-warming-scientists-alarmed-by-crazy-temperature-rises
Choice quote: "“This is an anomaly among anomalies. It is far enough outside the historical range that it is worrying – it is a suggestion that there are further surprises in store as we continue to poke the angry beast that is our climate,” said Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University. “The Arctic has always been regarded as a bellwether because of the vicious circle that amplify human-caused warming in that particular region. And it is sending out a clear warning.”
(warning that Mann & co haven't a clue what's goin
On 28 Feb 2018, Helen (Leitrim, Ireland, sub) wrote:
Hello all - a long time since I reported! Snow moving west here in Ireland, though media focused on Dublin and the east. Substantial snowfall this afternoon in Drumshanbo, Co.Leitrim starting about 1.30 pm after a sunny morning. We're at higher altitude here but it now appears to have reached Carrick-on-Shannon also. Quite heavy here for a while, and unfortunately I had to walk down the hill to get catfood (out of stock yesterday) - arrived back in a blizzard. Temp -1 (-4 overnight), but ground temps must be higher as main road had melted and no ice (yet). Temps expected to drop, with windchill of -13. I guess anything is possible - this isn't a fluke as media trying to claim - just the beginning.... take care everyone.
On 28 Feb 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
What a refreshing change...we have schnee up to the knee...just joking. Its around 4 inches drifting to 6. Wind is so strong its blown almost all snow off the car and the bit that's still falling is almost horizontal. It might be a nice warm sun but the wind is bitter. According to the radar we should have a reprieve until mid afternoon tomorrow (Thurs). Overnight tonight predicted to hit -8C where we are, by around 10pm.
On 28 Feb 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Woke up to snow this morn. Around 2 inches drifting in places of the lovely white crisp stuff. Red warning for us an upgrade on our orange warning yesterday, tomorrow looking more active so schools have shut for which we all cheer as life too short to not have a lil fun when extra time becomes avaliable 😉 stay safe and enjoy where possible ❄
On 28 Feb 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
My comment yesterday didn't show up for some reason. Still not had much snow down my way. No more than about 1.5ins. Cold though as phone said 18F at 7.15am and just to be sure I checked the thermometer on the wall outside and it said 18F too! Only a light 3/4in of snow overnight to clear off the windscreen. Easier than ice. Roads patchy with some wet, some slippy but generally not bad. Schools closed again due to today's spineless generation. Has a good heavy snowshower in London but the sun is beaming down now and it is 28F. Our midweek cup game has already been moved to a 3g pitch but my fear is that it will still be cancelled due to the opposition having to travel all the way across Surrey.
On 28 Feb 2018, michaelb wrote:
Wessex/Mercia border 600'asl
Current temp 42F, winds from the east, broken cloud cover and feeling very cold despite some sunshine. Occasional very light snow fall.
Regards m (30+45day sub)
On 28 Feb 2018, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:
Heavy snow here this morning. Schools closed, roads very tricky and minus 3 max. Biting wind causing small drifts. A taste of the future winters.
On 28 Feb 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
...eeeeee getting old is no fun! Change that 1967 to 1963. I'd been talking about the bad winter of 1947 beforehand and the date stuck in my head. Doh! Both very bad winters though........ We now have 2.5 inches of snow which is growing rapidly and the gritted side roads are covered with very little traffic, so not looking good for driving anywhere. We shall see... 6hrs before I need to drive.
On 28 Feb 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Bradley....well its changing by the hour. The heat moving north from the equator is relentless and looks like its going to displace this cold air, at least for Spain and the UK, maybe within a couple of weeks, which will get spring back on track for us. But Germany and other countries farther north and east may take much longer to warm up. Still hitting -17C in many parts of Europe with widespread snow-cover, meaning lots of reflectivity preventing the Sun from warming the ground. Just delays spring that bit longer. The deep cold didn't look as though it would push so far and so quickly into Europe...but it did. So its all on a knife edge at present. Nobody in the UK expected the severe snow and cold in 1967 but it happened, then 2 weeks after the thaw it happened again only worse. We have blizzard conditions, visibilty around 100 metres and lots more to come on the radar. Roads are now covered and up to 2 inches elsewhere. Still -4C.
On 28 Feb 2018, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// North London snow dry cold typical snow you see in Eastern Europe thankfully the sun has shone and so not black clouds heavily laden with thunder snow or the likes. But we have had a very long winter there is no denying of that. In future I will buy Piers forecast jeez caught out with this big time.
On 28 Feb 2018, Bradley wrote:
We had one snow shower in the coast it's pretty disappointing and the beast from the east is proving to be an absolute fairy looking at Thursday and Friday seems like great potential but iv got a bad feeling this snow event forecast for southern Britain isn't going to come off
On 28 Feb 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Around 2 inches here at 600ft semi-urban elevation and the roads are struggling in -5C. Salt is good down to -7C but beyond that you cross your fingers. Doesn't work with snow either. I've seen gritters go down the road followed by a snowstorm and the snow just covers the grit & salt. Didn't help at all. A few weeks back I spread table salt on our steps. Overnight we had freezing rain which made the steps glassy with ice. You could see the salt still laying there under the ice!
On 28 Feb 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
eastside...not too cold in little 'ole England YET! I've been monitoring that deep cold since before Christmas as it spread across Siberia and then down toward China, Japan and the Himalaya. Once it achieved that it pushed west and just keeps coming. I've seen temps below -40C all over the place and this winter -30C is commonplace, even -20C in many of the US states. I've noticed it's been cold in northern Spain with bits of snow, but this morning I see Spain has been blanketed with as much snow as the UK. Nearly 8 inches in the hills and a good spread of 3 to 7 inches across the whole of the north. And the cloud that dumped it is heading our way, backed by low pressure and strong winds. Does anyone see a repeat of the build up to the 1967snowpocalypse? End of Feb and severe cold? On Thursday the SW UK could get a repeat performance if Spain is anything to go by. I see the growing season of the whole N hemisphere delayed this year. d:^( That deep cold is just arriving for us...
On 28 Feb 2018, Steve Devine wrote:
Morning all. GFS brings southern England a historic blizzard on Friday. SW England, Wales & Ireland copping heavy snow tomorrow and again on Friday then winds switch to SW and milder weekend with rapid thaw / localised flooding. Just looking at the numbers for Feb, average daytime temp in SW Essex was only 5c and 0.5c by night. In Feb 2017 it was 8.7c by day, 4.5c by night. Last similarly cold recent Feb was 2013 (4.9c D, 0.3c N) then Feb 2010 (6c D, 1.3c N).
On 28 Feb 2018, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
#SnowWatch #LondonBridge #Borough Start-of-#A2 #SnowReport 06:00z #Piers #Corbyn *http://www.WeatherAction.com* <=snow 2.25" open church grass+tables. Too #cold for easy snowballs (<-3C?). Melt extraordinarily clear pure drink. #Snow/ water depthRatio 20:1(high?) <= AND TODAY *Subscribe* 50%OFF LOADS GoGoGo! Thanks Piers
On 28 Feb 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Very cold today with a high of 1°C. Flurries set in early afternoon before a period of heavy showers with fluffy flakes went on and off for a couple of hours. Settled quickly and gave a good dusting which slightly melted but quickly refrozev making pavements lethal after dark. Down to -7 now which is about 19°F. Coldest for many a winter. Pretty impressive for as Match is Thursday! Already Feb has above average frost and is running a good degree below average. // 18z GFS Z looks to be delaying the cold somewhat although it loses the blizzards on This-Fri but still looks snowy. As it is an Amber warning is out for south west as far as west Berks up to north Wales. Yellow for much of England. However in the near term nite Amber for north east and Scotland tonight into tomorrow.
// Gerry - very happy for you, was going to ask. Looks like you got one of the sweet spots in Norfolk. You might get more very shortly by the looks of it. // Stay safe all.
On 27 Feb 2018, michaelb wrote:
Wessex/Mercia border 600'asl
Cold, temps around 21F (-5C) occasional snow flurries over the last 24 hrs. Currently clear skies.
Regards
M (30+45 day sub)
On 27 Feb 2018, Andy (Chiltern Hills) wrote:
Didn’t get above freezing here today and was -5 by 7pm with a layer of snow following heavy snow showers on and off all day. A beautiful scene this evening as I took the dogs for their walk with the bright moon illuminating the snow in the fields and making the layer of mist that has formed in the valley below us clearly visible.
On 27 Feb 2018, Glenn wrote:
Pleased to report that our 5 year snow dorught is over in Norfolk. Finally at last we have a snowfall thats significant, 80s style i would say. The Beast from the East hasnt lost its touch.
On 27 Feb 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
Barely 1˚C at 7.30, about 1.5cm of snow, followed by many snow showers throughout the day, brought along on a stiff E’ly wind. Some brilliant sunny spells in between, max temp 3˚, snow showers continuing into the night, -3˚ at 10pm. Yellow snow warnings have been extended to Saturday, tomorrow & Thursday look wild but I’m not sure how wild, we’ll know tomorrow night. Piers certainly got the Scandinavian HP block bang on.
On 27 Feb 2018, eastside wrote:
I think in your little England you forget that snow has reached as far south as Napoli, Rome, and lots of northern Italy is pretty cold.
Quite a few people have frozen to death in Eastern Europe, so turn off the hype about the hype about it not being cold!
This night we hit close to -30C up here.
This morning was a storm, -13C with a wind of 40mph....
Now that is quite cold.
On 27 Feb 2018, Richard wrote:
Here in E Cambs we have a several inches of weather warnings and over hyped weather news, and a lot of green grass. Weve had the coldest night of the winter -4 (not been a cold one really)As far as Beast is concerned, its a lot more fragile than I remember of old. If we had the beast of the 80s these days I think the entire country would have shut- forecasts for round here have been a tad over done-suspect end of week will be too unfortunately. Role on spring.
On 27 Feb 2018, Tony ex sub wrote:
Well on holiday in gran canaria weather on the windy side with a storm predicted for morrow so all boat trips cancelled. ....gotta say weather been unusual for here. ...don't know if it's the knock on effect as I'm. No expert any ideas anyone? ?
On 27 Feb 2018, GazzaRoo wrote:
Staplehurst Kent, 10 Inches of snow from 5am to around 10am. Chucked it down and yet 5 miles form here very little.
On 27 Feb 2018, Steve Devine wrote:
Blizzard conditions in Canary Wharf for 15 minutes and now the sun is shining causing all snow to melt apart from that in the shade. Quite frightening how dark it got and how vicious the winds were during the snowstorm. Just hoping this active period of solar activity means the snow from the weather fronts from the south deliver a dumping and not a glancing blow to SE England. Kent has taken most of the accumulations so far...
On 27 Feb 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Not much sign of any snow this morning. A light dusting on the van but the roads were better than last night. Trains messed up but they don't need weather to achieve that.
On 27 Feb 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Just had a walk through Stand Wood at Chatsworth House and got caught in a blizzard. Dropped just over an inch in 20 minutes. Then got some lovely pristine snow photo's and enjoyed the scenery. But on the drive home there was hardly any snow anywhere. We could see it falling all around and dense like fog, but it wasn't settling. See how unpredictable and strange snow is. Chatsworth and the hills to the SW were a winter wonderland for at least the hour that we we're there, while all around missed it entirely. The Wet Office are now hyping up the rhetoric for the snow and cold to get much worse between Wednesday and Thursday. Can't wait!
On 27 Feb 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Thankfully very admirable those working hard to get homeless peeps in the warm for the coming few days or so but they wouldn't have to if they were given permanent housing in some of the empty houses that were discarded in the last contrived downturn. Stay warm and use the vast biast paper clippings to light your fires :)
On 27 Feb 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
-6 feel overnight though more of a freeze than frost with any water about frozen solid, cloud did float on by overnight but no snow, glad after much bribing we got our outdoor cat into our boiler house for the night, some nice sunshine this morning though obviously pretty parky showing 1deg with a real feel of -3 and -5 dew point partly sunny now with a nne wind and cloud stretching in. Many weather warnings and advisorys on met.ie click on their site to have a gander as may run out of characters :)) Articles on many shop shelves empty already mostly in dublin :) Also an article on rte.ie is this a sign of long term weather events 🙈
On 27 Feb 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Unpredictable....that's what you are. Unpredictable, fall near or far. Large wet flakes that cling to me. That wind-chill, sure does things to me. My salted steps have never seen more. So....SNOW! I would say it is the most unpredictable weather component to occur in the UK aside from tornado's. Just 1C can turn the tide with so many variables it makes your head spin. I don't think we'll see any significant snow until Wednesday night through Thursday in the NE Midlands. All the scary blather from the Wet Office has come to nought so far and the BBC are stating some places have seen 8 inches of the stuff, yet all their photo's (very few) show around 1 inch. Again we get hundreds of schools closed and trains cancelled, when it's actually far more dangerous to travel on icy surfaces, either by car or on foot. Ice is a show stopper, demolishes trees, water pipes and weak roofed buildings. Starves wildlife. Also creates extreme danger for the elderly (and window cleaners) and the Titanic!
On 26 Feb 2018, Andy (Chiltern Hills) wrote:
Light snow showers on and off all day and very heavy snow shower early evening giving a good covering, temp -3 at 6pm
On 26 Feb 2018, Gerry Surrey-Sussex border 223ft 45d wrote:
Generally a sunny day with blue sky but some snow showers around. Some were quite heavy even in town where the call was to be home by 6pm or turn into a polar bear, or something like that. Heading off to quiz though was bit different. Suddenly hit a white out blizzard of powder snow where more 20mph was too fast for what you could see. Very localised with the snow blowing around and no wipers were needed. Slippy on the road. Coming home I stuck to the A road but it was still quite slick in places but at least I know my ABS works.
On 26 Feb 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, cloudy, light dusting of wet snow and the sky looked as if it was going to offload some more but it never happened, light NE’ly breeze to start with and then complete calm for the rest of the day, we even had a whole sunny afternoon with a max temp of 5˚ and with strings of flat-bottomed cumulus clouds, though after 4pm it started to get markedly colder, -1˚ by 10pm, moon shining through a covering of fluffy sheep clouds. There is some precipitation showing up on the radar from a small LP which appears to be moving towards us from the N Sea, might be white tomorrow morning.
On 26 Feb 2018, eastside wrote:
There's just about only one thing you can be sure of right now, the general forecast and prognostics are all wrong.
Suddenly there was a "flash of light" like a brainwave and the weather "specialists" are all using terms like "SSW" and "Jetstream" and "polar vortex" like yesterday the same mouths were all spouting record warmth, record polar ice melt and more crap.
Their lucidity should have already been in doubt before, and their well known abilities to predict anything (sarc).
As far as our weather goes, which is still stuck in this cold anticyclonic conditions from up here, they are forecasting little change until mid march, and an intensification of the cold down to -30C in the next 2 days.
If it means cold until mid march here, then it's quite possible it will be similar in the rest of Europe which is why I'm not planning any long road trips until after that is all over.
Btw we had (WET) snow and plenty cold/MISERABLE in Poland in NOVEMBER......
On 26 Feb 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
JOHN E.Try googling MWIS and look at your regional forecast video
On 26 Feb 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
JOHN E: GFS going for a generally cold outlook until mid March, especially in Scotland. Certainly not the weeks on end of 1963, but a a sharp easterly for the short term to remind us of what can happen.
On 26 Feb 2018, JohnE wrote:
So the beast from the east is going to be nothing more than a fairy judging by the models that I have seen. Never was going to last more than a few days and then we will return to temperatures in the early teens. I just hope that we have not spent millions preparing for this event
On 26 Feb 2018, JohnE wrote:
And at 11.00 hours this morning the met office site has crashed and no local weather warnings are available when you try to follow them.
Time will tell just how bad this is going to be
On 26 Feb 2018, Bradley wrote:
The low has no moved towards Ireland for thurs/fri snow event for southern England looks like it's shifted.. typical hype pretty sure it's downgraded sadly which I bloody knew it would
On 25 Feb 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, cloudy all day with SSE’ly breeze, less strong than yesterday, max temp 4˚, down to 2˚ again by 9pm. MO has now upgraded snow warnings to Tues - Thurs, with Wed even being an amber warning, so it looks like it’s going to hit us smack in the face, could be an interesting week. Fairly confident about our tunnels since 2010/11 as we have reinforced them. Did somebody say we weren’t going to have Beasterly? Well, maybe we still won’t, I hope your skeptical instinct is right, Craig.
On 25 Feb 2018, eastside wrote:
Coronal hole / fast moving solar wind stream are on the cards tomorrow.
We already have enough KP in theory for visible aurora, but G1 is forecast for tomorrow.
It remains to be seen what effect, if any, this has on weather.
The vikings said it was a sign of bad weather.
I'm looking for visible aurora.
Suggestion is changes in earth's magnetism + slight weakening in earth's magnetic field+solar minimum & ideal time of year with reduced protection/high energy proton flux can make for brighter aurora with pink nitrogen atom spallation present.
If earth/sun magnetic connection suddenly comes right BZ we could get an amazing show.
Let's hope?
On 25 Feb 2018, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:
That's interesting Craig re this blizzard. Dangerous weather which ever way you look at it (snow /freezing rain) Hopefully won't get as far north as Yorkshire. I invisage a red warning going out if it does make landfall.
On 25 Feb 2018, Steve,Dorset,UK wrote:
It has been a glorious day here , blue sky’s but a chilly wind from a cold ENE breeze, but out of the wind you could actually feel comfortable and sunbathe, we will see what the week brings, prob be ok as Piers has been very quiet.
On 25 Feb 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Bradley ignore the ill informed forum chatter, saw this from Ian Ferguson under one of Derek Brockway's tweets, written in the past 4-5hrs (current time 1530) so quite pertinent === "In this situation [850hpa temps] are absolutely not a proxy for temperature down on the deck!...Perhaps rain (& even freezing rain) subsequently from S/SW but prior to that, an extremely serious blizzard potential. Latest output alarming, frankly, but time on our side to see how this firms-up & tone public messaging accordingly....I'm not going to second-guess re warnings or timings. Clearly however, if signal remains as strong as now (stress if!), then it probably wouldn't be just a yellow... don't usually bother commenting on perennial winter nonsense from eg D Express. However, this week has all hallmarks of a seriously newsworthy & potentially gravely dangerous cold episode. Due to stupid prior false reporting, our messaging is now much harder ('cry wolf' effect"
On 25 Feb 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Met Office now updated with an Amber warning for parts of the NE and Kent as well as a new one for snow and winds for the west country on Thursday. // Bradley - Derek is referring to the event Friday which still could lead to blizzards not snow. There's a very fine line on this one so keep watching for updates nearer the time. There's plenty of snow due before then, although add it's showers may be hit and miss in terms of depth.
On 25 Feb 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
"The maximum snow depth at Heathrow was 9cm in the early afternoon. In the context of the
long record of snow depths at Heathrow since the winter of 1948/49, this is not particularly
rare and has an average “return period “of five years. The return period is an estimate of the
average time between events and gives an indication of the probability of an event occurring
in any one year, given current climate. However, in the context of the 22 mainly mild winters
immediately preceding the colder winters of 2008/9, 2009/10 and 2010/11, the Met Office
conclude that this is unusual, with 9cm or more having been recorded only once (in 1991) at
Heathrow. " (Heathrow report 03/11) Add 2013 to that as well (early Feb 2012 was also impactfull). London is also currently under two days of yellow warnings for snow (not yellow snow warnings 😉).
So your statement "Snow is a rare visitor in that part of the world doesn't happen anymore" is clearly false.
On 25 Feb 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Snow also fell in January this year but was not disruptive.
In the context of the winters of 2008-2011, Daily snowfall increments of 7cm or more have occurred only six times since 1970. (MetO estimate from Heathrow report in Mar 2011). They were unusual events and if you checked your facts you'd see we haven't been a continuous winter wonderland. Cold winters were a rarity during the late 80's to early late 00's (excepting instances such as Jan 2003 etc or Feb 1991). Long period of warm winters with next to no snow are quite common going back to the 17thC. You could almost think these things come in clusters and cycles...cont...
On 25 Feb 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Asim === "Dozens of flights in and out of Heathrow have been cancelled after snow and ice plunged parts of Britain into a deep freeze." === http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-snow-latest-updates-london-heathrow-airport-flights-cancelled-ice-roads-accidents-m1-motorway-a8130196.html === the date 27/12/17 "A BA spokesperson told The Independent: “We’re very sorry that some of our customers’ travel plans have been affected by severe adverse weather conditions. Heavy rain overnight and snowfall this morning, combined with a reduction in the number of flights able to land at Heathrow have caused disruption to our flight schedule. Like other airlines, we are experiencing some delays and cancellations." === http://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/uk-weather-snow-storm-caroline-flights-cancelled-heathrow-travel-trains-strikes-a8101766.html === the date 10/12/17 ... cont ....
On 25 Feb 2018, Bradley wrote:
Brockway sorry,
On 25 Feb 2018, Bradley wrote:
Now derek broadway is now saying rain for the south I'm always checking for updates incase it updates to snow again if it's rain this hype from the media was probably the biggest lie iv ever witnessed in the history of weather seems like forecasters don't know if it will snow or rain on the coast but surely if the beast from the eat is that intimidating surely the cold air even in the coast would be far too advanced for it to be falling as rain surely I hope southern England will get the snow!
On 25 Feb 2018, eastside wrote:
"Heathrow Airport will be affected by any snow as I’m flying out on Friday?"
It seems the only reason you come on here is talk about you & your flight from a tiny blip of a small island!"
Ie. ME ME? talk about ME & how important is ME!
In the general scope of things, are you aware, a country largely unprepared for adverse weather, with 90% of people running around on summer tyres is likely to have a number of serious accidents with people killed on roads?
It's stupid & it's not gonna get better>2025.
It's got to change, like they have in Germany making snow tyres mandatory.
In this case nobody really gives a monkey about your flight &/or if it gets delayed or cancelled.
What matters to the vast majority of the population is can they GO TO WORK safely.
Take that on board!
This is not a "selfie" web site, for egotists, it's about trying to predict weather extremes with a view to saving people's lives + livelihoods, especially for those like farmers & their livestock that de
On 25 Feb 2018, Asim wrote:
Craig ur the idiot it doesn't happen it’s called stating the facts where ? Show me snow we will see who the idiot is then come this week. Anyone can tell u it’s a snow starved area for 5 years, So I’ll be careful who u call an idiot dude
On 24 Feb 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Yellow weather warnings out for snow from Mon-Weds
Mon is east facing counties, spreading to cover most of the UK Tues & then on Weds retreats a bit from Wales. Of course these are highly likely to change. Add these will be streamers and convective snow amounts may vary 1 to 15cm and due to temps is unlikely to melt. Thursday and Friday are under close watch - if you believe one set of runs you are mistaken. They often pick up a signal & go overboard. They are effectively modeling an enormously potent cold spell - one that hasn't even started bI would add - to just go. Call me sceptical. These set ups normally require human forecasting because the models have not had many instances. Forecasters I've seen on Twitter are concerned at possibilities. Expect changes // Asim I lived in West London for a long time (as of course has Piers), so to say "Snow is a rare visitor in that part of the world doesn't happen anymore" shows you're ignorant, an idiot or a troll.
On 24 Feb 2018, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:
I very much doubt this very cold dense air will be shifted by Friday in one attempt. Any moisture coming into it from the south would bring large snowfalls I would say, for most of southern and central England.
On 24 Feb 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, partly cloudy with a strong SSE’ly wind which kept going all day, mostly fairly sunny with a max temp of 6˚. Still blowy at 9.30pm, 3˚. Snow next week? Yeah, alright then, if you have to.
On 24 Feb 2018, Asim Arslan wrote:
Cheers Bradley at least someone answers some questions on here. I’m guessing Heathrow will escape cheers. Snow is a rare visitor in that part of the world doesn’t happen anymore.
On 24 Feb 2018, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine//absolutely GREAT the biggest Siberian DUMP and I have booked for Norway northern lights so not looking good where did this come from ...
On 24 Feb 2018, Bradley wrote:
Disappointing for snow fans my guess as I am one myself was hoping for decent snow in the south but GFS showing a big flip of milder air pushing up from the south next week leading into a downgrade with no snow at all I really hope this isn't the case
On 24 Feb 2018, Asim Arslan wrote:
Hi piers can you tell me if Heathrow Airport will be affected by any snow as I’m flying out on Friday thanks
On 24 Feb 2018, Bill S (NE Wales) wrote:
Forgot to mention UK gas prices set to double next week and all coal plant expected to be running at some point. in weather like expected there will always a market for fossil energy
On 24 Feb 2018, Bill S ( NEWales) wrote:
It’s been a quiet two weeks gone (yae- no pesky westerly gales!)with real spring like weather the first week.Although sunny the last few days it’s been very cold. Friday was the return of frost at -2c After the very bitter conditions early next week , model suggestions are following up with blizzards for the Friday Saturday. In this neck of the woods easterlies give sunny dry conditions ,generally speaking , whilst a shift to the SE will give higher risk of snow. I guess in this small island it depends on your location and the wind direction. Stay safe be mindful of the vurnable at these cold times
On 23 Feb 2018, Mike Ellwood wrote:
Oxfordshire, OX14
2C outside my front door at the moment, although it feels colder & car is frosted up. BBC Weather App says -1C for here, with an overnight low of -2C.
BBC News website Headline:
"UK weather: Spring 'postponed' as cold snap hits UK"
No mention of climate change. As it's colder than usual, it's only "weather", not "climate", of course.
On 23 Feb 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, somewhat cloudy but brightening up gradually to a sunny day, though with high clouds blocking out the sun from time to time, biting cold S’ly wind, max temp 6˚, down to 2˚ by 8.30pm under a bit of drizzle. According to MO the whole of eastern Britain is going to be hammered by snow on Tuesday, I suppose it’ll depend on where the Scandinavian HP will be situated, the further north it is, the more we up here are also going to get it in the neck. Although there is a smell of growing grass in the air and the chaffinches have started singing, spring ain’t nowhere near for sure.
On 23 Feb 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
*on the cold side as feels like 0, that should have read!-) can I excuse bad typing on the lack of sleep? :))
On 23 Feb 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Yeah Gerry that was a cold one to be born into, my Dad remembers that year well he was in his early 20's and living near London at the time, a bit parky for the pram outside here too and glad we sneaked in a quick sunny walk bundled up the other day as it is way too cold yesterday today & onwards into next week, a fresh se'ly wind is keeping a should be 6 deg feeling more like 0 deg today so time to hibernate indoors :)
On 23 Feb 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Maria, my first year included Winter 62-63 and it was months before I was able to be put out in my pram on the doorstep to get some fresh as was the norm in those times. Phone alarm this morning brought up 28F and frost on the flat roof but very little on the van, which was good as it meant no scraping. Luckily I watched the first episode of the latest Ice Road Truckers last night as my drive to a nearby station included 3 ice crossings. At least I have travelled the road enough to know where to expect them. Good way to test your ABS is to try the brakes on the icy bits. A bit of wheelspin at times but through safely without having to chain up. I wonder how they will be on the way home. Bright and sunny again today but only 39F in the City. I wonder how the electricity supply will cope with an extended cold spell where cold in Europe may mean no spare power to send us via the interconnectors?
On 23 Feb 2018, stephen parker SUB wrote:
Met office have issued a level 3 cold alert for England for next week, a proper bit of brass monkey weather.
On 23 Feb 2018, Lorraine Lister NZ wrote:
@Greg in NZ - You exaggerate about the amount of snow that we had this week which was well covered in the media. Quite frankly Cyclone Gita was a lot more important than the cold southerly in the lower South Island. Obviously you don't live in an area that was affected by Gita, some of us do and can assure you that the effects of the cyclone damage are far more important than trying to prove a point about a cold southerly bringing snow in February. Perhaps you might like to mention that it has been a hot summer with deluges of rain at times in some places and drought conditions in others - that would give a more accurate picture of what's been happening in NZ this summer.
On 23 Feb 2018, stephen parker ( winter sub ) wrote:
Lets just say we were both right david lol.
Although it does look like the south that gets the worse, if it snows during the week the chaos will be a sight to behold!.
On 22 Feb 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
I've also noticed the subtle change in the MetO forecasts over the past few days as the easterly winds have cone into a more reliable timeframe (4 days, 5 at a push but that tends to be westerly/zonal). The focus had been on cold but disruptive snow is now a significant risk - focused on east/south at first but really anywhere and in the forecast they said it could be from many directions. Gritters have been out in force, so I don't think the local council will get caught out although I can see services being deeply impacted regardless. Stay safe all in the days ahead. Watch the warnings.
On 22 Feb 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Davud - contingency planners will have already been informed of the upcoming weather and advised to keep an eye out for MetO warnings as these will be very short notice as bands of snow come in off the North Sea, and later other directions. I would not be surprised to see Red warnings in the coming week. Warnings go out to local govt. NHS etc. More info here === https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/public-sector/contingency-planners === There is also a rising cold weather alert last issued 08:51 Weds. Quote "There is an 80% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0900 on Friday 23 Feb and 1200 on Monday 26 Feb in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action." ===
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert
On 22 Feb 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, cloudy at first but brightening up nicely after 9, strengthening S’ly wind which got rather cold by afternoon, max temp 7˚, clear sky in the evening, 0˚ at8.30pm.
On 22 Feb 2018, Davud ( Yorkshire) Sub wrote:
A surprising number of people are completely oblivious to next week. Hope proper warnings go out Saturday, give people a chance to prepare.❄❄⛄🔼🔼🔼
On 22 Feb 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Yesterday morning frosty to start with some fog too, yellow low temp warning up on met.ie A nice fresh sunny day followed perfect for wrapping up and walking with the lil one in the pram. Today no frost some cloud and sun temp dropping late aft. Max 7 deg. 3 now at 8 24pm feeling colder but some cloud about. Met.ie coming around daily now to cold next week, Irish Weather Online fb making aware the potential for some disruptive snow and cold next week ❄
Ps 😂 David
On 22 Feb 2018, Fred wrote:
David.....2018/19 winter is your call. You poo poo’d the beasterly this winter
On 22 Feb 2018, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:
Well Stephen looks like the beast is on its way. I did say 2018 back in 2012. Ron will back me up lol.
On 22 Feb 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
A dull but cold start has given way to the sun but it is cold at 41F. No frost this morning even though it was cold enough. Iceagenow has the Italian Met talking about the big freeze coming. When looking at records, you need at least 200 years to see anything and of course hardly any records are that long. I see when confronted by reasonable questions to his beliefs, Rhys ducks out and presents strawmen in reply. So it is the canton of Geneva now it it and not the city, How convenient. Failing to allow for UHI is not fiddling, just incompetence in record keeping if this is not acknowledged. I wonder what the satellite data in 1936 for Geneva, beit city or canton is.
On 22 Feb 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
So stop looking at weather data over the past 100 years as a guide to whats about to occur, because it is a drop in the ocean compared to the dramatic climate changes that have occurred over the past 15,000 years. How anyone can ignore the graphs ... well it takes my breath away. >> http://bit.ly/2EZaDj4 << This isn't a Blue Peter advent calendar, its an official graph from the very institutions which posters keep referencing >> http://bit.ly/2sLpl8G <<. Every time the temperature hits a high peak, it drops off a cliff into another cold period. Anyone who is seriously interested in any realistic future climate changes, should surely learn from these graphs, not simply dismiss them as what? Fanciful? They have indeed been cherry picked to avoid the infamous "hockey-sticks" and for clarity, as some graphs are rather complex. The simpler ones are up to the task. I reiterate...look at political changes to gain a better understanding of what's to come. They are not stupid. They know!
On 22 Feb 2018, Russ Derbyshire wrote:
Well, at the end of the day, who do I believe? It has happened hundreds of times in the past, so its not a matter of "if" but "when".. All we need to do is study ice cores and lake sediments (already done) to get an accurate picture of the past climate changes to make an educated and reasonably accurate prediction of "when" the next deep cold "will" occur. No cherry picking required, unless ignoring the warmist diatribe aimed at any AGW dissenters is to be included. Concentrate on the highly qualified but independent scientists, the ones who are most vehemently trashed publicly by the warmists, and they all sing the same tune. That is, that we are headed for an extended period of deep cold, the effects of which will be planet-wide. As in the past, only the rich will survive, the ones who can afford to eat. Definition of the word DOOM; "An unpleasant or disastrous destiny"... Doesn't sound so bad but accurately describes every civilisation collapse of the past 12,000 years.
On 22 Feb 2018, Greg in NZ wrote:
21 February – the Great Summer Snow Storm of New Zealand. While media churnalists and climate eggspurts ranted & railed about the arrival of ex-Tropical Cyclone Gita from the north, they completely forgot to look over their shoulders at the massive, frigid, Antarctic polar blast roaring up out of the deep... and then it snowed, and snowed, and snowed.
I always make a call for a 'white' birthday – February is high summer here in NZ – and I called it spot-on again. Happens about 50:50, better than most AGW Alarmist expert prophecies. Google 'NZ snow Feb 21' or something to find links/photos/vids. Funny thing is, the Klimate Kook Klan are all gathered in Wellington, our capital, to discuss how to "tackle" runaway warming. Ha!
On 21 Feb 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, clear as a bell and staying that way all day with wall to wall sunshine, max temp 7˚ but probably more like 10˚ while working in full sun, a kind of spring preview, light breeze from a mostly S’ly direction, 0˚ at 10pm under a starry sky.
On 21 Feb 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
A very interesting and perhaps historic/memorable period about to come about. Snow is likely anywhere. Don't fret where yet, just keep an eye on the forecasts when they are on the near term and of course keep in mind the active R periods. And ignore anyone who says it's to late in the year. 2013 of course was snowy and cold but e.g. 1916-17 was a long winter that really got going late with a snowy frigid April that decimated bird populations. There are signs of spring everywhere now so it's going to be a real a shock to the system.
On 21 Feb 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
...cont...UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Mar 2018 to Thursday 22 Mar 2018:
At the start of this period it is likely to be very cold across the UK, with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the UK, whereas towards the north and west it will be drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March.
Updated: 15:03 on Wed 21 Feb 2018 GMT
On 21 Feb 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Bradley - as Liam Dutton said snow forecasts can not be relied on until they are 3 days away, in some cases just 1 day. This is the MetO update (from today);
"UK Outlook for Monday 26 Feb 2018 to Wednesday 7 Mar 2018:
It will be turning much colder next week. Monday and Tuesday will be mainly dry with sunny spells, but snow showers will develop across some eastern and southern areas, where fresh winds will make it feel bitterly cold. Through the rest of the week it will remain cold with an increased risk of ice, frost and snow showers. These will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas, and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the east and across southern England. The cold weather will continue into early March, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather, and here it may be less cold at times, although brisk winds will continue to bring a marked wind chill...cont...
On 21 Feb 2018, eastside wrote:
" I am not a warmist, but there is no doubt that January 2018 was warm in Switzerland".
There is no doubt you are talking utter bollox.
I was there in November & December.
You weren't!
I have rarely seen such snow conditions + cold in the last 20 years.
(I was also in France in the big freeze in 1984)
Driving over Jura mountains from France was extremely difficult.
Guess where I ended up, in the entire valley from Geneva to Martigny.
You don't live on the same planet.
Do me a favour stop talking rubbish! GO THERE!
Also stop talking rubbish about the Baltic states etc.
You are not there either, but some of us travel for a living, & the weather is how we plan it.
Come, spend a few weeks with us in Ural and see how you like freezing your nuts off!
Btw my neighbour spent a good time in Omyakon, which is the coldest place on earth.
She knows a good deal more about winter than you ever will.
Next week in her Moscow forecast is a freezing -25C.
That doesn't happe
On 21 Feb 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
More encouraging real data from Rutgers:
Average weekly Northern Hemisphere snow coverage for weeks 40-43 (October time) - data in millions sqkm:
2008 15.2; 2009 18.52; 2010 14.22; 2011 18.13; 2012 19.84; 2013 20.19; 2014 21.65; 2015 19.32; 2016 19.39;
and 2017, drum roll: 25.47!!
5 year rolling average 2008-2012: 17.18.
5 year rolling average 2013-2017: 21.20.
Emigrate to the Tropics immediately!!
WE'RE DOOMED said Private Fraser to Capn Mainwaring....
On 21 Feb 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
More inconvenient data: this time maximal Northern Hemisphere snow coverage area, courtesy of Rutgers Uni Snow Lab data (see climate.rutgers.edu).
Taking the maximum weekly extent from the past 10 years (2018 may yet be premature, as four from ten data points come from weeks six and seven, data for 2018 as yet to week 5):
Data in millions of sqkm: 2018 48.31; 2017 49.90; 2016 50.53; 2015 48.23; 2014 49.81; 2013 48.51; 2012 50.52; 2011 50.19; 2010 52.96; 2009 50.37.
Rolling five year averages decrease each year from 50.51 2009-13 to 49.36 2014-18. So even if 2018 data is dodgy, 2014-2017 are not....and the data decreases.
Data is satellite derived.
Start howling I am cherry picking! Yes I am, but so does Robert Felix at IAN.
OK go analyse October and April data for yourselves: see if you can prove ice age is coming.
No evidence from maximum snow extent that anything radical is occurring.
Oh, I was naughty: I started the data near solar minimum and cycle 24 not
On 21 Feb 2018, David (Yorkshire) Sub wrote:
Stephen - wait until tomorrow to firm up but it would be unusual for the extreme cold hit the UK. Think it will miss us to the South but you never know.
On 21 Feb 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Gerry - The Canton of Geneva is considerably larger than just the City of Geneva. A map shows 21 other towns/villages apart from Geneva itself. Go search Wikipedia if you do not believe me.
The data will be no less reliable than any other measurement source. I am not a warmist, but there is no doubt that January 2018 was warm in Switzerland. Very wet also and very snowy in the higher mountains.
Switzerland is considerably more advanced than the UK technologically and they have no interest in pushing global warming, as their winter holiday industry would be badly affected.
Satellite data might as well be claimed as unreliable as electronic parts go off and need replacing so 'data homogenisation' takes place. I personally value satellite data, but it gets homegenised.
On 21 Feb 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Some more data for the 'An Ice Age is imminent' cherry pickers:
1) Great Lakes Ice 2017/18: despite WUWT and IAN running features about lots of ice, the true feature of 2018 Ice Season is an early peak meaning a decent but not exceptional maximum extent of 69.1% on February 11th 2018, currently down to 46.2% and therefore unlikely to reach a higher peak absent 14 days of extreme cold. No stories on early melt, eh? See glerl.noaa.gov for the data.
2) Total snowfall for the 2017/18 season to date for Mammoth Mountain Resort CA is 88 inches, as compared to well over 400 inches this time last year. So all the great snow in France just means no snow in California. Go check out 10 other CA resorts if you do not believe me.
3) Glencoe ski resort opened Dec 9th, shut again 18th to 4th Jan, snowfall mid January secures the season. Pictures of snow to car park 10th December may look great, being shut down for over two weeks is more important financially.
On 21 Feb 2018, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
I wonder if Geneva is still the same size it was in 1936? The reliability of Swiss data is likely to be no better than the contaminated data from most other places even if they don't indulge in homogenisation - or fiddling as it is known. One day wet and warm then one day cold and bright, and repeat. Quite windy last night but still a frost on the windscreen this morning.
On 21 Feb 2018, stephen parker SUB wrote:
Hi David
Looks like the models firming up for the cold next week, but clearly too early to talk about snow etc. If my memory serves me i think i read that in '63, the snow was on the ground till 17th march, so it does happen.
I dont watch the models much, but it seems they are in rare agreement over next week, however lets see if they are still singing from the same hymn sheet come Saturday.
On 21 Feb 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Previous entry should read Summit County, Colorado.
On 21 Feb 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
My track record on Alpine snow for East Side:
1) Started ski-ing in Soell, Tirol, Austria, Christmas/New Year 1980/81. Skied in Alps every year bar 1998/9 until 2011, except 1989, when I skied in Taos, New Mexico and Summit County California.
2) Skied in all Scottish ski resorts sometime between 1987 and 1993, when I was resident in Glasgow and completed a round of the ascent of all the 3000ft mountains listed in Munros tables, completed a winter ski traverse from Corrour to Dalwhinnie in February 1991, climbed Grade III ice climbs on Ben Nevis, Sgurr nan Gillean, completed winter traverses of Aonach Eagach, CMD arete to Ben Nevis etc etc during a six year period of being in the Scottish mountains on a weekly basis.
3) Spent entire 1982/3 winter in Austrian Alps and 1989/90 winter in Swiss Alps (Wengen).
4) Represented Ski Club of GB as Rep and party leader in Flaine, Verbier, Zermatt, Wengen, Muerren and Arosa 1991-1997.
So I know absolutely zero about Switzerland and Scotla
On 21 Feb 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Data for Eastside:
1) January 2018 temp for Geneva Canton: +6.3C, previous record since 1864 (when records began ) +4.5C in 1936.
2) January 2018 temp for Sion, Valais: +4C, previous record +3C in 2007.
3) Average Jan 2018 temp for all Switzerland:+0.6C, previous record +0.4C in 2007.
So go tell Meteo.ch they are lying out of their arses.
Snowfall data: go to Figure 1 of the weekly slf.ch report on 25/01/2018: each two days during major snowfall event from 16/01 to 22/01, snowfall level rose to 1500-2000m, raining below that level, thereby washing away all snowfall below 1000m. No-one is arguing that above 1600m, huge snowfalls did not occur.
Figure 4 of the 1st February 2018 weekly report shows snow depth well above the 1971-2010 average in the higher mountains, but vastly below average (since there was zero snow lying) in the major alpine valleys (Rhine, Rhone and Po tributaries) and Swiss lowlands.
Learn, east side, the difference between high snowfall and cold tem
On 21 Feb 2018, Bradley wrote:
Some forecasters on twitter now moving onwards high pressure taking over instead of any snow for southern England I hope that's not the case and it's southern England's turn for snow before wet another chance in late 2018/19 my fingers are crossed!!
On 21 Feb 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Eastside, I really think you need to learn manners. My data on Switzerland comes from the Swiss Avalanche Service, www,slf.ch, which issues weekly and sometimes monthly reports. It is the National Reporting Body for Swiss winter conditions, unless you have evidence of a contract you personally hold from the Swiss Government.
Amazingly, Chamonix is NOT in Switzerland, the snow in Switzerland is NOT the same as snow in Chamonix. When Chamonix gets huge snows on a SW wind, Northern Swiss resorts get the Foehn, a snow stripping wind bringing high temperatures. But as the world expert, you already knew that, did you not?
If you wish to tell SLF their data is nonsense, because Eastside knows better, do so.
Until then, either shut up, ski into the arctic Baltic or stop making a complete arse of yourself.
On 20 Feb 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, heavy overnight rain clearing away E’wards early on, then a brilliant sunny day with a beefy NW wind, max temp 8˚ nevertheless, drying up nicely, 2˚ by 9.30pm.
On 20 Feb 2018, eastside wrote:
Hi, some more news here.
"The Evening Standard is saying arctic temperatures over the south east after Wednesday, due to SSW last week. "
ES is wrong.
Our temps are going to dip from tomorrow on to around -25C at night.
Don't forget, we in the Baltic states get YOUR weather from northern Scotland a couple of days later.
You get OUR cold.
This means a minimum delay time of 48hrs before you get our current of cold, which by no means is exceptional for our part of the world at this time of year.
From what I can see temps in Scotland are only going to start dipping towards zero with snow, from this weekend, which is altogether logical.
We have a steady build up of snow, and from what I can see, the cold temps we will get, will be followed by a general warming this weekend, so "ARCTIC" no way, just like all this hype about the cold in S Korea for the games being unusual.
It's not,-just the usual cold airstream from Siberia is feeding across from China a little longer th
On 20 Feb 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Massive loss of snow below 300 metres as from yesterday afternoon. Higher snowpack largely intact. What will come from the east?
On 20 Feb 2018, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
GREETINGS ALL TO NEW BLOG! See home page for special comments on impending supercold + snow East / South UK especially + NW Eu + Scandinavia =+=+= Prepare for more extremes BI Eu Usa this Spring SUBSCRIBE NOW to our wild Spring forecasts! PASS IT ON! Urgent! Thank you
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