On 31 Oct 2021, James Henderson wrote:
NOTE (ref. previous comment): Does the STEFAN-BOLTZMANN LAW OF RADIATION indicate that '[SOMETHING TWICE AS HOT WILL NOT JUST SIMPLY COOL DOWN TWICE AS FAST AND, LIKEWISE, THAT SOMETHING HALF AS HOT WILL NOT JUST SIMPLY COOL DOWN HALF AS FAST'? Therefore, if this is the case, it is necessary to 'adjust' the previous comment as regards its suggestion that 'AIR WOULD HAVE TO BE 500 TIMES/15,000 TIMES COLDER THAN THE, EG, "GROUND"' to an extent that would be in accordance with the above ref. the STEFAN-BOLTZMANN LAW, i.e., to indicate that the temperature of air would not have to be as much as, eg, 500 times/15,000 times colder than the, eg, 'ground' in order to reduce its 'rate of infra-red radiation' to a rate consistent with the rate of 'thermal energy input' into the air from CO2 in turn heated by 'terrestrial infra-red' from the, eg, 'ground'.
On 31 Oct 2021, James Henderson wrote:
If infra-red radiation emitted by terrestrial/maritime surfaces were absorbed by CO2 and the resulting 'thermal energy' were transferred by the CO2 to air by 'thermal conduction' at up to the same rate as that at which the CO2 absorbed the 'terrestrial infra-red', the air would have to emit infra-red radiation at a rate 500 times slower than that at which the CO2 were absorbing terrestrial infra-red and transferring the resulting heat into the air, i.e. if air molecules are in a 2500 to 1 ratio with CO2 molecules in the air and if the CO2 in air were responsible for 20% of the temperature of the air. Alternatively, the air would have to be 500 times colder than the, eg, 'ground' (or perhaps a 'compromise' between the two 'scenerios' could instead apply?). Furthermore, if not all of the infra-red emitted from the surfaces of the planet is absorbed by CO2 and, for example, only one 30th of it were absorbed then the air would have to be one 15,000th of the temperature of the 'ground'.
On 10 Oct 2019, Lorraine wrote:
https://youtu.be/RNhK67GftDk
I wish these climate activists would look at everything and stop being alarmist
On 16 Mar 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, dry and overcast to begin with but rain gradually starting after 8 and then turning into snow from 11 onwards, snowing wet and heavily all day until 8pm; we had to go inland where it started adhering pretty quickly and even our hill eventually became white. Winds variable from SE - NE - NW, 1˚ by 9pm. Our son has been slating a roof and was working stripped to the waist not so long ago!
On 16 Mar 2019, Mark Hall wrote:
Sorry Nick,
It was when you asked Rhys "why would previous patterns affect future climate?". Paraphrasing of course, but it sounded like you doubted climat cycles existed.
And not many people disagree that we've just experienced several decades of warming. The thermal inertia of the oceans, whose heat capacity is 1000 times that of the atmosphere, explains alot. Warming phases are ameliorated by previously cooled oceans (so droughts persist for a while) and cooling phases are ameliorated by warmer oceans (so extra precipitation persists for a while).
Most of the people on this blog think that there is a pretty decent correlation between climate cycles and solar cycles.
But it would be great if you could be less inscrutable and suggest your own preferred theory to explain the alternating cycles of warming and cooling on our planet during this present interglacial period.
On 15 Mar 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, another bright and very windy day (W), max temp 9˚, again noticed an enormous number of ladybirds huddled together on the sunny side of young trees or on the stakes that hold up the tubes/wire guards. Bullfinches feeding off the many cherry plums (Prunus mahaleb) we planted years ago. Set to be cold this weekend. 3˚ at 9.30pm, large halo around the moon.
On 15 Mar 2019, out_east wrote:
"Anyone have data on Scandinavia and northern areas of Russia from the Baltic to Kamchatka?"
Yes, exactly where I am.
The beginning of march was very cold.
A long thaw has only just started in URAL.
There have been huge changes in temp within hours, and again this morning -6C.
There were piles of snow 2m high in the streets until last week. Moscow has had huge snowfall this winter,- really tired of it.
In Baltic states it's still snowing on and off in Estonia/Finland, but further south in LT and LV it's really turning to spring.
The Baltic sea in the gulf has still lots of ice, and Neva is still frozen solid in SPB, while Parnu harbour is still solid.
Next 2 weeks most of the snow will thaw, but don't forget you can have heavy snow any time in April.
2018-19 will be remembered for not being so cold but with above average snow fall.
On 14 Mar 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, still quite windy from the NW but sunny from the word go, warming up to a max of 12˚, occasionally quite cloudy, wind abating towards evening, 4˚ at 9pm.
On 13 Mar 2019, Nick, Berks wrote:
Mark, maybe you are getting tired easily because of your difficulty with reading. Show me where I said "there have never been any discernable Climate Cycles" and I might revise my opinion on that. Shame for your argument that Herschel was mistaken on the sunspot / grain price correlations (he accepted that he might be) - see agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/grl.50846. Maybe a bit more reading eh? On other matters, is it just a sudden blast of cosmic rays that is causing an out break of paranoid conspiracy theories. Or global warming perhaps. UAH satellite data (not notably prone to UHI and once accepted as a reliable source of data on this site) now has four full decades of warming and will be showing a further increase in March. You can argue about causes all you like but at least accept some basic facts.
On 13 Mar 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
@ Craig: I spend most of my spare time following closely what is happening in the US because I believe that it affects the rest of the world. Regarding online communication, it does seem that intended use of the internet for military purposes has gone astray for them and they can’t switch it off because too much commerce depends on it; there are many tech geniuses out there who always find a workaround. Have a look at https://americans4innovation.blogspot.com/ this is the site of Michael McKibben, the inventor of social media whose patents were stolen from him - do you remember when everything suddenly became free in the early 2000s? That’s when the deep state had completed the theft and made the tech available to all for free - with a back door for spying on everyone. Very good interview on the site with Ann Vandersteel where McKibben explains it all. Everything is irrefutably documented, proper indictable evidence.
On 13 Mar 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, wild NW’ly wind with frequent showers, quite a bit of rain again overnight, showers slowly dying out and sunshine increasing to give us a great sunny if windy day, max temp 10˚, cloudy evening but wind practically disappearing by 7pm, 5˚ at 9pm. == I mostly just report weather but I seem to have stirred up a bit of a hornet’s nest :-) Thanks for answering for me, Craig. Lorraine NZ, I’m maybe being a bit optimistic with my decade but I daresay that the economic hardship that rural people in France have to suffer because of Macron’s harebrained globalist/warmist levies really angers ordinary people, yellow vests now in 18th week. The elite dictating policy are very few people and as more falsehoods become visible the rest of us are beginning to wake up in far greater numbers, wising up to the phony narrative being served. A change in consciousness is irreversible, you can’t un-know what you know.
On 13 Mar 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
But we still communicate online despite their best efforts. Yes online comments have been shut down because - heavens let not the heathens speak - but there are alternate ways these days. In the past few weeks dissenters.com launched which allows you to comment on any article online, like for example the BBC Pravda Environment section. People such as Sargon of Akkad (Carl Benjamin) who's been banned from most places has removed comments on YouTube but put a direct link to dissenter there so commenter are not subject to YouTube's increasingly draconian policies. I have a Gab.ai account as a back up for when the next Twitter purge occurs. There's bitchute as an alternative to YT as well. Duckduckgo.com instead of Google. As fast as the ban hammer comes out alternatives pop up. The point is we cannot be silenced forever by a hardcore of illiberal idealogues. These people are sick + beyond saving. But they are a tiny minority projecting like the wizard of oz.
On 13 Mar 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Yes the media are in control of the "narrative" but yet can you remember the Trump and Brexit votes? How did that happen? Because a large silent majority aren't listening any more. The their intentions for people I know in real life & online certainly didn't broadcast their intentions. I remember just before UKIP created mayhem in the 2014 EU elections an older gentleman just saying he liked Farage then being lectured by someone who had barely reached puberty about how he was wrong. It was disgusting behaviour. You'd be surprised how many are secret "deniers" of the elite eugenics agenda. Yes those who lecture are holding the wheels of power but they easily forget they work for us residing in a comfy bubble of self congratulatory narcissism. But the rest of us watch + the anger is palpable now. Of course in response to our naughty behaviour we have seen the system hunker down upon dissenting voices, deplatforming, banning + libeling....
On 13 Mar 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Unfortunately most believe media hype and properganda on all subjects. Look at the recent outcry and portrayal of Michael Jackson. Two untrustworthy individuals come forward after filing law suits for millions and most of the masses believe them, why?? The media is the answer.
On 13 Mar 2019, Gerry 45d 164ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Maria - I think we should encourage those people not to have children in case they turn as stupid as they are. When it comes to the media, the UK operates on personality not facts. Every story has to be from a person or they ignore it. And then they go to a person opposing the first person - although this can be missed out. Many articles are just based on a press release which in the case of climate science fiction usually turns out to be drivel that misrepresents the content of the report it announces, but then what journalist is going to read the report. They also like to talk to somebody with prestige and certainly won't check to see if they just spouting ignorant drivel. Brexit exposed this clearly and the media have to take a lot of the blame for the disaster it has become for allowing the ERG morons the oxygen of publicity no matter how often their lies are exposed.
On 13 Mar 2019, Lorraine L NZ wrote:
@CraigM350 - Rich does have a point Craig. In NZ which is a smaller country than the UK the media if full of climate change as is our current coalition government. The site stuff.co.nz which includes the majority of NZ papers has this to say "Stuff accepts the overwhelming scientific consensus that climate change is real and caused by human activity. We welcome robust debate about the appropriate response to climate change, but do not intend to provide a venue for denialism or hoax advocacy. That applies equally to the stories we will publish in Quick! Save the Planet and to our moderation standards for reader comments" This means you cannot get any comment published that goes against the warmist belief - a bit like your Guardian newspaper. There is a concerted effort by the Greens (part of the coalition) to push their climate change agenda. Sure, time will show the reality but in the meantime its very difficult to get opposing views out there.
On 12 Mar 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Rich - just because the media hype those who shout the loudest doesn't mean much. A small cadre of journalists and activists who live in a bubble & love the sound of their own scare stories but do you see any of them doing anything - i.e. besides telling everyone else what to do because they sure as hell are not giving up the luxuries dividends of fossil fuels. Why are the media one of the most untrusted institutions these days? #FakeNews creating a concensus per chance? Maybe they are shouting because they know the game is up? I mean it's not like CC is a priority - immigration, crime, health care, Brexit etc etc. all more important to people. Not CAGW. Look how Brazil recently voted. Look at the yellow jackets protests in France. In fact bar the UK (thanks in part to industrial collapse) & the US (frack baby) national emissions are taking no notice of our intentions and commitments since Kyoto in 1990. People are waking up. Quick enough? Time will tell.
On 12 Mar 2019, Rich wrote:
Paddy- I think once you move outside the Weather Action bubble, its fair to say that the Climate Change argument is alive and well and not crumbling or showing any sign of it in the next decade. I think until reports filter through of declining average temps, crop failure due to cold weather (rather than heat+ drought etc) and expansion of arctic ice widespread colder winters which are in theory all due to happen rather than have happened. the LIA Wavy jet streams etc and extreme weather events claimed by both sides probably wont cut it for the population at large. Even Donald Trump supporting your theory (or attacking what you oppose) is probably not going to help long term, with friends like Donald who needs .......
On 12 Mar 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, wet from lots of overnight rain but once again a sunny day with a max temp of 9˚, very strong SW’ly wind all day, some gale force gusts in the afternoon along with a couple of showers, 3˚ at 9pm. Great thing about spring weather is that it’s often very windy as well so that the ground dries out much quicker. == Maria, watch that video I posted a link to yesterday, the CC story is slowly but but quite certainly falling apart, even if it takes another decade.
On 12 Mar 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
On the edge of it here at 140 metres,, but wet snow started falling just after 0900hrs
On 12 Mar 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
And don't even get me started on the article i've just read about should we re-think having children because of cc...I have got the hump now lol
On 11 Mar 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Wet and windy showers increasing this eve. Orange warning for NW Yellow for the remainder of the country valid from Tue 12.00 till 12.00 13th for storm G. // Spray sun blocking chemicals into atmosphere to cut global temps. Really?? Wt# I mean am I really reading this crazy bs.
On 11 Mar 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, lovely sunny morning with a stiff NW’ly breeze, max temp 9˚, clouding up somewhat in the afternoon and getting markedly chillier, wind changing in to the SW & producing light rain by 8pm, 5˚ by 9pm, radar looks like a promise of heavier rain. == Here is an interesting 11 min video ‘The Global Rightward Shift on Climate Change’ https://bit.ly/2NWri92 by Dr Steve Turley (not a climate scientist) which I found rather succinct.
On 11 Mar 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Both the start and the end of the winter were mild
The winter months, i.e. from December to February, were just over one degree warmer than normal in the south and central parts of Finland. In Lapland, the temperature was closer to long-term average. December and February were clearly milder than average, but January had a colder spell. Depending on the observation station, the last time winter was milder than this was either last year or the year before last.
The precipitation level was slightly higher than normal in southern and northern parts of the country. Likewise, snowfall levels were somewhat higher than average, yet Kymenlaakso was the only place where the level was unusually high. === https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/press-release/903455073
On 11 Mar 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Rhys/Ron - in Norwegian but Google translate had quotes such as snowfall not seen since the 1980s. ===
https://www.nrk.no/nordland/_-stakkars-den-jaevelen-som-ikke-har-snofreser-i-dag-1.14403676 === overall Jan was a mixed bag with areas differing but overall the cold spell that affected the Alps in Jan affected Scan also ===
https://norwaytoday.info/news/north-norway-snow-creates-havoc/ === Finland a similar story === https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/press-release/872470162
On 11 Mar 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
RHYS: the Norwegian weather service reported record snow in some parts of Norway earlier in the winter. People on Lofoten had to be evacuated. They are very pro warmist in their language, so this is a big admission for them.
On 11 Mar 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
So a correct summary of N. America and Western Europe for 2018/19 winter would be:
Very early and extensive snow cover in N. America (Rutgers has data). Highly unusual sustained and heavy snow from mid December to end January in northern half of Alps (SN and TT in Austria reported it well).
Sustained rain and snowfall hitting US West coast from mid December to early March (loads of US data sources). Generalised snowpack above long term average across the Rockies (see bestsnow.net). Much higher than normal ice cover on the Great Lakes.
Warm and sunny alpine weather through February to early March seeing significant early diminution of snowpack. A washout snow season in Scotland now showing signs of late life in Glencoe and Nevis Range.
Signs of moderate snowfall returning to Alps currently.
Anyone have data on Scandinavia and northern areas of Russia from the Baltic to Kamchatka?
Nothing abnormal I can see. Warmer temps in Europe countered by colder temps in North A
On 11 Mar 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Joe B "one may argue that if the oceans — the prime source of the planet’s thermal energy — cool, things could snap colder in a big way, which would lead to much more serious repercussions than what is a relatively gradual increase being driven by warming in higher latitudes and higher nighttime minimums elsewhere, not daytime highs. We can adapt to the gradual increase we have seen. It actually is lessening the range from pole to equator and from nighttime lows to daytime highs — an argument for less, not more, extreme weather events [...] The warming is in spite of the low-solar argument that is being used as a counter. Note that decreased incoming solar radiation may lessen easterlies in the tropical Pacific, meaning more El Niños, which has a countering effect on cooling. The oceans are warm, and that warmth took a long time to build and will take a long time to get rid of. === https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2019/03/11/perspective-needed-in-climate-debate/
On 11 Mar 2019, Gerry 45d 164ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Power cuts? Nothing in my neck of the woods and we do have a delicate supply. We have a ground cable now but my neighbours talk of when our houses were fed by an overhead cable and there being numerous outages. There is an overhead line feeding into our area as this had a problem around the Christmas period. It was very gusty during yesterday morning. 2 heavy hail showers in the afternoon. Cold wind. The fake Feb record heat has all gone.
On 11 Mar 2019, Robbie wrote:
Surprised there's little in the news about the huge number of power cuts all over South East England yesterday morning due to high winds. The area affected covered at least from Ipswich down to Brighton.
Were these power cuts the result of sudden surges from wind farms overloading the National Grid?
On 11 Mar 2019, Mark Hall wrote:
So let me get this right Nick ......You believe that Wars and Disease are discreet phenomena that are somehow disconnected from Climate. Hum ...
You also appear to think that there have never been any discernable Climate Cycles. Don't know what you have been reading, but it does not sound to be very balanced.
If you are looking for a Driver, I would suggest you look at Solar Activity. Several hundred years ago, Herschel noticed that grain prices correlated with Sunspot activity and made himself a bit of money in the Commodity Market. So Economics looks like a function of climate aswell.
You need to read more widely, because it is tiresome to debate with beginners. Not that it shouldn't be attempted, mind.
On 11 Mar 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
NICK: for an example of a coastal location in Greenland I tried Narsaq and over the next 10 days the warmest predicted is -4C and no rain preciptation is predicted.
On 11 Mar 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
NICK: I have just checked the predicted temperatures at Nuuk Kommune site in Greenland via the Norwegian Weather Service site and over the next 10 days the warmest it is predicted to be is -16C. I also check other locations in Greenland periodically and you may like to do so yourself to see what is actually going on.
On 10 Mar 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Well pretty much rainy squally blustery gusty snowy gaily haily sunny cloudy almost thundery but def. Not mildy weather today and lots of it and gees if this is warming and just warm in general how comes everyone ive seen this weekend is dressed for winter and thats just for indoors 😁 Bloody cold duvay avoid the garden (except to hop out & prance about in each changing weather condition for a minute ) try not to eat chocolate weather !-) More wet snow and wind tonight feels like -3....Souwester fond memories when I lived near there at 22 of flying in an open swing shift Microlight from Davidstow airfield to Perranporth and then off the cliffs there and back again, getting to steer it for a while whilst up in the air and the view was amazing, now that was cold up there and only served to amp up my weather obsession🙈 Take care in and enjoy the weather :-)
On 10 Mar 2019, Fred wrote:
So let’s see the reports over coming 2 weeks as Greenland comes under intense cold conditions......very little I suspect
On 10 Mar 2019, Nick, Berks wrote:
Rhys, I say this with some dismay because your posts are usually much more data based than your latest one, much of which lacks logic. Unless you identify drivers there is no inevitability to coming out of an ice age, little or otherwise. Why would the pattern of the previous few hundred years affect 19-9 onwards? Where is the continued heat coming from? A lot of people died during the Little Ice Age? No shit, Sherlock. To paraphrase many of the comments on climate web sites, people have always died and they always will. Where is the evidence that human mortality rates over, say, the 1000-2000 period were a function of climate rather than wars, plagues etc. Baseless assertion at best and given the massively greater populations today what's the relevance anyway? Greenland warming only occurs with East Atlantic blocking highs? Really? Do tell us more. Sounds like you have a much better handle on climate drivers than the rest of us. Good news for California for sure but for the rest?
On 10 Mar 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, good ground frost, bright start but cloud moving in from 9am onwards, sharp & cold SW’ly wind, light rain by 11 and clearing again by early afternoon, brilliant sunshine for a few hours, max temp 7˚, then cloudy again with showers in the evening, 2˚ at 8.30pm. Always great at this time of year to watch the tree buds swelling, spring is coming, however cold it may be.
On 10 Mar 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Rich
The earth has spent the last 200 years coming out of a mini ice age, so less ice would be expected now compared to 1919.
Reality is that humanity survived and thrived during the Medieval Warm Period, the Roman Warm Period and the Minoan Warm Period. A lot of people died in the Little Ice age.
Greenland weather warming occurs when there is East Atlantic blocking highs. SW warmth goes to Greenland and Europe gets more cool air from Arctic. This winter had unusually long Atlantic blocking highs. So rain to Greenland is not unexpected.
Some good climate news: California is almost completely free of drought after an excellent and sustained wet season, heavy snow to Sierra Nevada, reservoirs filling up and regular rainfalls helping to recharge groundwater.
On 10 Mar 2019, C View wrote:
Here is an interesting extract from a piece on the Watts Up With That site.
Diarist Samuel Pepys (1633-1703) wrote about the conditions on many occasions. They were especially concerned about the mild winters, so the government recommended action. On January 15, 1662, Pepys wrote,
“And after we had eaten, he (Mr. Bechenshaw, a friend) asked me whether we have not committed a fault in eating today, telling me that it is a fastday, ordered by the parliament to pray for more seasonable weather it hitherto had been some summer weather, that is, both as to warm and every other thing, just as if it were the middle of May or June, which doth threaten a plague (as all men think) to follow, for so it was almost all last winter, and the whole year after hath been a very sickly time, to this day.”
The prayers paid off. On January 26th Pepys wrote,
“It having been a very fine clear frosty day. God send us more of them, for the warm weather all this winter makes us fear a sick summer.”
On 10 Mar 2019, Andy ( chiltern hills) wrote:
Very heavy snowstorm for half an hour 6 ish this evening began to settle on the lawn.
On 10 Mar 2019, Sou'wester wrote:
All over Devon and Cornwall there are trees down from bitterly cold winds gusting up to 70mph. The Forestry Commission has shut Haldon Forest to the public, and train and ferry services have been disrupted. Waves of over 17 feet have been reported at Perranporth. Yes, in like a lion, definitely.
On 10 Mar 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
My facebook friends are posting photos of snow from various parts of Scotland this morning. Quite a sharp frost here and the snow that has started to fall here now is settling. Takes me back to the Marches of 1985, 1973 and the mid 1960s
On 10 Mar 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
After a great workout in the cold wind chasing our recycling from our bin around the yard this morning and securing our bins with rocks showers passed through wind eased and Sat. Was bright & fresh. Dry until around 7.45pm when rain started and changing to wet snow now just after midnight. Met.ie put up a yellow warning for ice and snow country wide and yellow warning for wind for nw counties. Actually feels cold tonight as the eve. went on..
On 09 Mar 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, bright and clear, stiff W’ly wind with occasional gale-like gusts, another fabulously sunny day, even though cold and bracing, except in shelter, where it was positively warm, max temp 8˚, wind abating only towards evening, 2˚ at 9pm.
On 09 Mar 2019, Mark Hall wrote:
Yesterday the two big political parties were keen to stop an ecological gap developing between them. May was talking Green Energy in Grimsby and Corbyn opined in Dundee that Climate Change was part of the class war. It would become the "central issue" of his party's industrial strategy, because " it is working class people who will lose their jobs as resources run dry" and "working class people who will be left behind as the rich escape rising sea levels". Just like Ocasia-Cortez in the US, he wants zero CO2 emissions within the next few decades.
Unfortunately, these people have not followed through on the logic of their glib little virtue signalling. Humanity will chop down every tree to burn if it is denied cheap energy.
On 09 Mar 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Certainly turned colder overnight. Typical march weather, wind, rain, sleet, hail snow, warm sunshine.
On 09 Mar 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
Classic March here. Windy with sleety showers and snow on hills. Looks like a chilly start to the trout season confirming my childhood memories of playing truant up the Covan burn on 15th March.
On 09 Mar 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
https://www.rt.com/news/453382-greenpeace-founder-global-warming-scam/ Sounds like weather incoming this morn. Windy with showers woke me up at 5 a.m 7 deg with a real feel of 0 and dewpoint of 3 at 6 a.m
On 08 Mar 2019, C View wrote:
Rich. The very comprehensive data for the USA shows the long term trend since the 1930's is lower temps with a marked reduction in days above 90F and winter temperatures also trending downwards. Many places in the USA this year have had record cold and record lows are still being set for March. Northern Hemisphere snow cover is also trending upwards. Arctic sea ice is also very extensive currently right out to Spitzbergen.Squaw Valley California has had so far this season 51 feet of snow and intends to remain open for skiing into July.
On 08 Mar 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, a bit of a frost and a very bright clear start, but cloud moved in soon enough an eventually veiled the sun completely, which meant that we didn’t get more than 6˚, not helped by the fact that the cold SW’ly wind increased during the day. Some light showers in the afternoon but then clearing by evening, 3˚ by 9.30pm. We’ll apparently be having a sunny day again tomorrow. == Craig, thanks for keeping us in the loop, I was wondering why the comments weren’t growing.
On 07 Mar 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Apologies for no comments past few days. My email notification system stopped working but all comms should be released now and the notifications started working again. Sorry about that. // Really windy past few days. March in like a Lion? // I see snow affected Ireland as Maria mentioned with problems at Dublin Airport === https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/dozens-of-flights-cancelled-as-heavy-snow-hits-ireland-1.3812567?mode=amp === Snow also forecast in the next week for midlands North but the snow line subject to change. Wouldn't be surprised if that changes even as far south as M4 but wouldn't hold my breath. Looking further the last April snow of consequence was 2008 - 11 years ago so be interesting if that comes off. Funnily enough there's been snow in South in 1908, 1958 and 2008 which is a 50 years cycle. 1981 is the real standout outside of that. Couple of frosts the past week and lots of squally showers.
On 07 Mar 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, another wet day with intermittent rain and a NW’ly wind increasing in strength, max temp 7˚ but when the wind got going it cooled down to 4˚ pretty quickly, glimpse of the sun as it was setting, 3˚ at 9.30pm under a clearing sky.
On 07 Mar 2019, Rich wrote:
More concern over melting Greenland ice sheet and increasing amounts of rain as opposed to snow. I know some on here point to warmer periods in past in Greenland and yes they have happened, but I would expect to see at some stage these stories turn around, I dont believe its all warmist scare mongering, it is concerning. Does anybody know in N hemisphere where we have more or increasing ice/ snow generally compared to say 100 yrs ago?
On 07 Mar 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Very wet Month so far, not dry or cold
On 07 Mar 2019, Andy (Chiltern Hills) wrote:
Yes, apart from a couple of short lived snowy spells it has been a pretty mild non event of a winter despite all of the hype about snow and ice. Hopefully there are some clues in the weather patterns we have experienced that will help forecasters in future winters.
On 06 Mar 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, overcast with rain just starting and going on until after 4pm, wind started out E’ly & gradually weakened & turned into the NW by evening, max temp 8˚, foggy after the rain stopped, 6˚ by 9.30pm. It was a good day to sow trees in the tunnel.
On 06 Mar 2019, Rich wrote:
Not as warm but mild for March. CET anomaly so far in March +3.3, feb +3, Jan +0.1 and Dec +2.2 putting this winter into mild or v mild category. Interesting to see how rest of year continues and how dry it turns out.
On 06 Mar 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Has continued cold with a lot of rain yesterday, 6 deg at 10.30 a.m & light rain this morning.
On 05 Mar 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-2˚C at 7.30, brilliant blue sky all morning, light S’ly breeze, cloud moving in from the west after 11 but still mostly bright for the rest of the day, much cooler feel though, max temp 10˚, clear starry evening, 0˚ at 9.30, frost moving in.
On 05 Mar 2019, C View wrote:
All change this week on the Scottish hills. This from the mountain forecast for tomorrow
''Snow is expected to push gradually across
the region from the south, heaviest and most persistent central highlands, where threat of
sustained whiteout. '' Possibly the first sustained whiteout of the winter
On 04 Mar 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, cloudy but quite bright and markedly colder than of late, fresh NW’ly wind with occasional stronger gusts, good bits of sunshine every now and then, max temp 10˚, a blustery rain shower in the afternoon, clear sky at night, 1˚ at 9.30pm verging on going frosty.
On 04 Mar 2019, Gerry 45d 164ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Anyone surprised at the lying by omission of the MetO regarding the temps for Feb? Nope, thought not. As usual they are hiding behind their short digitised record going back to 1910 while ignoring the CET. Mind you, even the MetO had to admit that the mean temp was behind 1998. I guess they lack the courage to fiddle so as to make 1998 lower as they have in the US. They will have much work to do in the US as some states are recording 30F below normal and LA never managed to reach 70F all month for the first time on record. The sun made it through Feb with no sunspots and is on a run 32 days so far - 47 for the year so far (75%). Wet and windy covered yesterday with it being chilly in the wind. Brooks and river flowing full this morning.
On 04 Mar 2019, Mark Hall wrote:
Dear Piers,
Your 25th Feb posting indicated that you had Full Spring Forecasts on offer for new customers. I don't think you understand how this rankles with existing customers who are still waiting for the March 30day ahead forecast when it is now 4th March.
I considered the 45day format to be a waste of time, but it looks like the 30day has been consigned to the same WeatherAction "later" basket.
On 04 Mar 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
GEOFF:' just about spot on!
MARIA: Yellow warnings too for snow in the Scottish Borders and looks like a fairly steady spell of North Atlantic/ Polar Maritime weather for us including the opening day of our trout season. However won't be as chilly as the record cold in Hokkaido or the record snows in the Pacific Northwest USA. Models, especially GFS need to be taken with a shovel full of road salt.
On 03 Mar 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
(Website was inaccessible last night) 02.03.19
3˚C at 7.30, sunny start and early part of the morning, gradually clouding over after that, max temp 11˚ in a strong and cold S’ly wind, rain after 4pm but clear again in the evening, 3˚ at 10pm.
03.03.19
5˚C at 7.30, bright and very windy from the SW, gradually abating during the morning to leave a much calmer afternoon, max temp 12˚ and clouding over but still bright, totally overcast by evening, 4˚ by 9pm. Everything still quite dry despite yesterday’s rain, much appreciated by us for being able to get on with stuff; we had a major draining job in preparation for tree planting going on in a very boggy bit, would have been impossible without the prolonged dry spell.
On 03 Mar 2019, East Kent Coast wrote:
Very wet and windy here today but temps remaining mildish. Some wonderful snowy pictures from Ireland and Northern England tonight.
The Maunder Minimum circulation pattern has begun and is quite clearly seen over the US at the moment - warm Alaska, snowy, wet and cool California, central and eastern seaboard becoming frozen solid with frigid temps.
Within two months the UK has been snowy and cold to summer like temps and now straight back to Wintry weather. LIA conditions were very similar.
On 03 Mar 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Also cheers Andy sounds like a plan :-)
On 03 Mar 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
WOW its settling too also noticed Met.ie have issued a yellow snow and ice warning for 22 counties 😂 Like Ron always says no use just model watching,! While your looking down at them as soon as you look back up real weather hits ya straight between the eyes!-) My pisces feet also never lie...
On 03 Mar 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Well made the most of our lovely little mild spell, glad I did as progressively turned wetter windierish and cooler since Thursday. Today its 4 Deg. Feelin like -2 with an E'ly wind and wet snow 🤣 Don't know what Piers forecast as haven't sub. Since Nov. only as i'm saving for polytunnel plastic but i'm guessing he prob nailed it!-) well well what do you know 17 deg Tuesday and 5 by Sunday i'm guessing they will waffle some bs to attribute it to something it isnt proven to be 😁 just all hot air folks or cold as the case maybe today ❄
On 01 Mar 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, still grey and overcast but less foggy, light SE’ly breeze which later turned into the S, beginning to brighten up by 11 into a reasonably sunny afternoon, max temp 10˚, some stars visible by evening, 4˚ at 9.30pm.
On 01 Mar 2019, Geoff wrote:
Maybe Ron's been spending time away with some other Glenn's...Livet and Morangie
On 01 Mar 2019, Istvan ilyes wrote:
Likewise down here in West Sussex, warm subtropical. No sign from Ron as you say in tropical Cambs.
On 01 Mar 2019, Gerry 45d 164ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Only the 15th warmest February according to CET as Paul Homewood notes. In 1948 only a few days into March it hit 71F at Kew and 75F at Wealdstone. The reason? A similar southerly airflow pattern bringing up warmth. The alarmist liars forget to mention this of course. The BBC is trumpeting a heatwave Down Under although they certainly won't be covering the massive fiddling that the BOM does there. Jo Nova shows how having lots of free sun and wind power give you unit costs of over $13000 compared to the Luddites in Queensland paying $83.60.
On 28 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, foggy and cold all day with a max temp of 7˚, light E’ly breeze, more like a proper February day (well, the last one thereof), 5˚ at 9.30pm. Yes, David, we also spotted bumble bees up here yesterday.
On 28 Feb 2019, Bill S (N E Wales) wrote:
Some welcome rain to end the month ,still on dry side at only 45mm. Like elsewhere across uK mild and predominantly dry month , max temp 18.3c. Severe gales 7th and 9th.lowest pressure 9th at 982 mb.
On 28 Feb 2019, Rich wrote:
No snow here in tropical SE Cambs today either, banana plants and pineapples off to good start this year! Has anybody heard from RON recently or is he buried under LIA snow?
On 28 Feb 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
0.00 mm of snow here today. Not quite cold enough 😉
On 28 Feb 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
The heaviest snow shower, I have ever been caught up in was in March and I think it is occurred 1993 or possibly 94. only lasted around 10 mins but it was a true mini blizzard. Then the sun came out and melted it. Large bumble bees have been coming out if hibernation last few days, in the garden, a bit concerning for nature.
On 28 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Comment from chiefio.wordpress.com that sums up the #ClimateDisaster the sheep fall for on twitter
"In the West were cold and frozen. Oregon had an Amtrak train stuck in the snow for about 3 days (now hauled backwards toward Eugene IIRC by another engine). Not since the San Francisco train in 1953 (heavy snow year) has such a thing happened here.
Yes, the UK is presently warm (depends on which ‘lobe’ of the loopy jet stream is over you at any given moment), but for everywhere warm, somewhere is frozen. Can you really trust that the average of those things, to the 1/10 C, means anything? That’s the fundamental proposition of Global Warming. That a fairly random (being generous and not calling them cherry picked or carefully selected) set of thermometers can be averaged and have it really mean anything." / 18C today, 20C yesterday. Scary? Nah gorgeous but all change now on the horizon with that even scarier word snow looming. Been some cracking March snow over the years.
On 27 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, slight frost, bright and and yet another sunny day with a max temp of 17˚ again, 4˚ at 10pm. For the last few days we have seen a great number of ladybirds all sunning themselves on fenceposts and trees, I hadn’t realised they can overwinter, it was a cheery sight for late February.
On 27 Feb 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Hokkaido Japan recorded the coldest ever temperature of -31.8C on 09/02/2019. See markvoganweather.com for details. So a part of the world as big as the UK seeing record cold as UK experiences record warmth.
All we can say is that some serious extremes have been recorded in early 2019.
On 27 Feb 2019, Andy B 45D wrote:
Maria I had a poly tunnel for about 30 years over a swimming pool ( that got filled in about 5 years ago when got too cold. It first had Ali strips along the bottom with a flexible plastic locking strip but later converted it to 4x2 timber with a 2x1 batten nailed along the top and held on with 2 bolts either side of pole and an exhaust U clamp on the inside. Raise the timber about 4" from ground put poly over top and fix it with another 2x1 batten along tight under other one h3 in nails when ends are secured tap the timber down the poles with hammer and length of wood for a drum tight finish.
On 27 Feb 2019, Andy B 45D wrote:
Glenn have you seen this video with Valentina Zharkova it will frighten you even more than a little bit of local warm weather
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=7sh_nlz43Pc
On 27 Feb 2019, M Lewis wrote:
Glenn - this very warm late February weather in the UK is unusual, but not unexpalined! The warm tropical air is being blown up from the Canary Islands and North Africa by the Jet Stream. The Met Office (ITV, C4 and C5) and Meteogroup (BBC) are dangerous idiots tellings everyone it is due to global warming.
On 26 Feb 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
and Really the way they write things " Mild weather proof Irish Climate is becoming more extreme" its 6 deg with a real feel of 2 tonight at 11.30pm ?! 🤪 🤣
On 26 Feb 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
...and the chocolate 😁
On 26 Feb 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Ps Glenn don't let it scare you, when we hit 17deg yesterday I don't believe that temp continued from one hour into another lol it reached a max of 17 but certainly didn't sustain that temp all day consistently! It took hours getting there and once it reached that it soon dropped off pretty fast, like eating a chocolate bar and forgetting to taste it lol so thats why you enjoy the nice days 😉
On 26 Feb 2019, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Glenn we are just happy, we've seen that lovely orange thing in the sky that we don't get to see too often so lets not replace Snow Stress with Spring Stress 😬 instead enjoy the moment 🤗before the next R period not that i know when that is but it usually follows activity on the sun ..
On 26 Feb 2019, Glenn wrote:
Up until now the weather this winter had depressed me. Now it just scares me
On 26 Feb 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Yesterday and today just beautiful days, 17deg yesterday cold overnight -1 this morning and some frosty patches could be seen on the grass once the fog cleared. Another lovely day 16 Max. I agree with Paddy the Spring like weather is welcome however long it lasts its a bonus, esp knowing how it see-saws. I had a face streaming with cold and flu this week but could not stop myself jumping in the compost heaps and sorting all 4 of them out then onto the next outdoor job whilst also taking time to sit and watch the tiny one listening to the birds and smiling. Fab time of year everything starting to wake up, inc me got a price on Ali rails today for the tunnel, i'd say wood would look wonderful without a doubt lol..
On 26 Feb 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Glenn - the UK is a very small part of the globe.
Mammoth Mountain CA is having the snowiest February since records began in 1970 and will top 200 inches in the month, only the third month in 50 years of data that 200 inches has been recorded in a month. Both the other two were also in the 2010s.
Go and look at the ice extent data for the Great Lakes this winter - it is far above average, meaning both January and February have been consistently cold on the US-Canadian border.
Your voice will carry zero credibility if you claim UK = the world.
On 26 Feb 2019, Glenn wrote:
These kind of temperatures in February are not a cause for celebration but a cause for concern.
On 26 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, and yet another amazing sunny mild day, just brilliant, with a max temp of 16˚ and no wind to speak of, 4˚ by 9.30pm. Snow? Who cares?
On 26 Feb 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Let's start recording the snow depths from Thursday, see which regions get the most 😁
On 26 Feb 2019, Gerry 45d 164ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
More cold records being set in the USA and roofs giving way under the weight of snow in Quebec. I do wonder if this is because of global warming and architects/structural engineers saving money in the belief that such snow will never occur again. While the N American cold and snow is explained by weather patterns it does contradict the warmest evah claims of the activists. A couple more days and the whole of February will be devoid of sunspots. Many were disappointed that the great Donald didn't Red Team - Blue Team global warming but has he been very smart by assembling a team under the National Security Council to look at the alarmist reports other parts of the US system have produced. So recent claims that global warming was the most important issue facing the US military can be shredded by the NSC.
On 26 Feb 2019, Steve Devine wrote:
Well said Craig! I've been remarking on Twitter how the current weather pattern and bifurcated Jet Stream is a direct result of solar minimum. Long stretches in the Jet Stream mean record cold for the US and warmth for the UK. All set to change this weekend as the Jet Stream slips south and crosses straight over the UK bringing MUCH NEEDED rainfall and strong winds over northern areas especially. Computer models have never existed in a Mini Ice Age historically, so these are unchartered waters with only solar and lunar impacts as any guidance for future events.
On 26 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
... it is quite easy to argue along the lines of Paul Homewood that there is nothing special happening, that it is just weather and if you ignore the short Met records they love to wheel out (the ones that start from ~1960/1910) and look further back it's easy to see that there is nothing new under the sun bar a bit of UHI/land clearance/stations that record up to the second changes).
If you look at ocean cycles alone the rise in global temps circa the Pacific shift ~1976 and the hiatus do not need co2/solar/lunar explanations. However if you observe solar /lunar over long periods you tend to see the weather as being affected (I started very sceptical) - lunar being important to the hydrological cycles //
Interesting - LA having coldest Feb for 57 years (3*19 = lunar). since 1962!
On 26 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Rich - it may seem that way but I'd disagree to a degree as the current warmth is caused by long fetches of the jetstream which is pumping warmth all the way from Africa. Those long fetches, and /or mid/high latitude blocking high pressure systems (meridional jetstream) are associated with low solar activity, often during solar minimum... However... they are also what Hubert Lamb pointed to and were widely reported during the "ice age" scare of the 70s. Its why Paul Holmewood sees them as just "weather" (i. e. nothing new) === https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/?s=Jetstream&submit=Search === to quote Piers "these extremes are ALL the wrong type of extremes for the type of Jet-Stream circulation patterns which by necessity under standard meteorology must follow from so-called GlobalWarming. Instead of 'Warming' north shifted benign JetStream patterns we have Wild South [or Nth] shifted patterns which follow directly from the solar-lunar theory "
On 26 Feb 2019, Rich wrote:
Craig, to be fair warmists are not the only ones to grab weather extremes as justification of theory, there have been a few on here along those lines on this site when we get cold weather and link to LIA, both sides can be guilty of this
On 26 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Glenn - that'll be because warmist usually babble complete nonsense in response to any weather event. I recently saw an email from Soros funded #ExtinctionRevolt using the polar vortex over the states as an example of "climate change". It's almost as if these people are programmed. They are just like the NPC meme #OrangeManBad. I half expect them to protest with a sign saying "I'm holding a sign" (leaving tremendous amounts of litter and using fossil fuel based plastics as they complain how bad ffs are) 🙄 See you can't enjoy the weather at all anymore. Feel bad. Pay your indulgences you plebs. We're in charge now and we don't care if our authotarian agenda kills off the poor.
On 26 Feb 2019, Glenn wrote:
Widely reported this morning that February have had the warmest day ever. This is a brilliant day for any warmists.
On 26 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Gorgeous day today. Stayed with a frost and - 1 up to 17C. Lovely warmth in the sun. A nice long jetstream pulling the warmth from Africa over us after nearly a full month of zero sunspots. OK not the cold and snow we seem but an LIA marker nonetheless. With CET currently at 6.6C I do wonder if we could end up with March being colder? It's rare but can happen. Looking at Febs of 6.5C or over since 1900 we have [19]03 14 18 26 45 61 90 95 97 98 [20]02 (I forgot just how horrible the 90s were)
7.3 1990, 1998
7.1 1903, 1945
7.0 2002
6.9 1961
6.8 1914, 1926
6.7 1997
6.5 1918, 1995
So not that unheard of especially considering the added UHI in that time. Interestingly most of those years didn't have a great early summer but we're quite warm later on. // Paddy sorry about that, must've missed it! /
David - working on a reply to you as I'm doing a little digging through CET + AMO + solar min/max. I do wonder if the sporadic solar activity scuppered or chances despite the overall
On 25 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, another mostly sunny and mild day with some cloud but a max temp of 17˚, very light SW’ly breeze, 5˚ at 9pm under a clear starry sky and still only February.
On 25 Feb 2019, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
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On 24 Feb 2019, Rich wrote:
Gorgeous weather this weekend, 17 deg and sun, feels like a pleasant early May day but we are still in Feb, average weather will come as a shock to system. Feb cet anomaly at +2.8 so far, likely hit 3 for Feb 2019, Jan Feb combined to date at + 1.3
On 24 Feb 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
A little fog and drizzle to start, s'ly breeze dropped and dry by lunch max 13 deg mostly cloudy all day, warm to work in cool to sit in. Thanks Paddy we had wondered about wood too, has been a long overdue project so can't wait and will dig out the old plastic level up then go for it :-) ..
On 24 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, slight frost, clear sky and another milky sunshine morning, strong S’ly wind, 12˚ max temp, more cloud in the afternoon and evening, haar close to the coast, 5˚ at 9pm. A real pre-spring day, we went for our first picnic of the season, sitting in the sunshine in a sheltered spot in the hills we got quite warm but in the wind it was cold enough.
On 24 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
(relates to 23.02, not published for some reason)5˚C at 7.30, a morning of milky sunshine and a stiff S’ly wind, max temp 13˚, more cloud in the afternoon and a few bits of rain, clear evening with 6˚ at 9.30pm. == Maria, re tunnels, it certainly is easier to have a metal bottom rail with clips or wiggle wire in a C-section rail, or alternatively a wooden rail (cheaper) which can last a fair old while; as long as the rail is well fixed to the hoops it is also very much easier to stretch the plastic, best done on a warm day. First stretch it drum tight lengthwise before fixing the sides. We renew our plastic every 5-6 years max, we can’t take any risks with our tree crop if we get a storm.
On 24 Feb 2019, Bill S (N EWales) wrote:
Dry and mild for the last few days , nice to see the cherry blossom out. Yes , reminds me a bit on nice spring 2012. The dry conditions have obviously been a factor in a reasonably sized gorse/bracken fire on Llangollen hills. Only 31mm rain this month.
On 23 Feb 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Drizzle and overcast this morning gave way by midday to dry mild 14 deg and even blue sky and sunshine later so we just had to get outside and lap up that vit :D Have decided to embark on a polytunnel project and replace our 12 year old plastic, has anyone used the re-usable aluminum clipping system and does it stand up to the wind, only we buried ours in a trench last time and never had a problem but just wondering if the new way easier on my back and better in the long run 🤔 clear 7 deg tonight at 9pm
On 23 Feb 2019, Willo wrote:
53 days of 2019 completed, only 14 days of measurable rain so far recorded in Kent.
8 days in January - 6 days in February so far.
On 23 Feb 2019, stephen parker wrote:
Models showing a last hurrah for cold in March, lets face it its all over bar the shouting.
On 22 Feb 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Well we've had it a little milder here drier the last couple of days too but the wind has been the theme and quite honestly when popping outside briefly in just a t-shirt you can tell its still Feb. so not mild enough to break open the sun cream thats for sure, for example at 11.20 tonight its showing 11 deg with a real feel of 4 and a dew point of 5 and outside with the sse wind it does feel like 4 deg. Plus the hiking socks are still out here so my pisces feet are telling me its not bare feet weather yet, still wouldn't rule out a cold spell I was going to say before spring but last year winter snuck into spring then it seemed like we jumped to summer so who knows..
On 22 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, a mostly cloudy but bright day with a S’ly wind and some sunshine from time to time, dry again, max temp 12˚ (Aboyne apparently had 18˚ yesterday!), 8˚ by 10pm.
On 22 Feb 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Cheers Craig but if there is low solar activity in the months prior to a northern hemisphere winter (like 2018) then surely that allows enough time for any lag? We have had blocks and a meandering jet stream this winter, therefore I just think the UK missed out this time.
On 22 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Interesting (h/t oldbrew @tallblokestalkshop) "Researchers have made an incredible discovery. The Earth’s outer atmosphere extends much further than expected, stretching to 630,000 kilometers (391 000 miles), which is roughly 50 times the diameter of our planet. Obviously, you cannot breath there as the atmosphere becomes more tenuous the further from Earth's surface you are, but this finding has important implications for space travel and space observatories.
The findings, reported in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, were possible thanks to decades of observation from the ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). "
=== https://www.iflscience.com/space/weve-just-discovered-earths-atmosphere-extends-way-beyond-the-moon/
On 22 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Hope casting - sorry didn't mean to sound like I was including you David a bit to inclusive with the "we all". Had in mind a forecast from Piers a few years back that nailed the cold signal but not the degree. I know I did say for the BI this winter was marginal as we were/are almost always on the perifery - the last station on the line almost - however the opportunity for a real pasting was there. The fine lines delivered here and IIRC some 20cm in Bath but was lame elsewhere such as the tropical hotpots of Norfolk. It also stayed on the ground over the weekend rather than a here today gone tomorrow as often happens. Still time to deliver of course but no big freeze just a snap that as history shows can easily deliver a foot or two well into April - even down South. A cursory glance of past events is scattered over the cycle progression. Worth looking into to see what stands out I think.
On 22 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
David - lag = thermal inertia e.g. a heated bath does not suddenly become cold. Somewhat like the hottest/coldest time of year is not solstice but ~4-6 wks later (or why daily heat usually peaks after not at noon when the sun is highest). Yes cold winters do happen but they often happen in the rising phase i.e. like at dawn when the sun is low on the horizon. We get a mixture of instant + lagged effects. Also Piers did mention odd/even cycles having diff effects (Hale). SC12 is quite analogous to SC24 & the worst winters were in the rising phase. I'll crank out my old spreadsheet& have a further look. I've completely ignored lunar effects for brevity which I'm sure would add something to it. As it is solar min could be another year or two off see David Birch estimates
=== https://t.co/3J6t5KOntR ===
However heat also does come directly in the here and now acting like a pump almost (2013/14 a good example of that - that was something to watch at the time).
On 21 Feb 2019, Rich wrote:
Cheers everyone (particularly Craig), good to hear varying alternative views from all. Beautiful weather day in SE Cambs, hard to believe its Feb, isn't the weather wonderful as ever, better than the grey murk of December!
On 21 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, quite bright already at the start and turning into a mostly sunny day from which the clouds did not detract much. An amazing max temp of 17˚ even on our hill, for that I can’t say that I’m disappointed in the lack of snow :-), of which I’m sure we haven’t seen the back yet, can still happen right up to May. SW’ly breeze all day, 7˚ at 9pm.
On 21 Feb 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Craig good comments, however I don't agree that we all hope cast. That is not what I base any predictions on anyway. I don't buy into the idea, that there is a lag between solar minimum and cold winters in the Uk. That doesn't make sense to me?
On 21 Feb 2019, Andy B 45D wrote:
Great comments Craig but I am far more worried about future temperatures with the fact of our sun going into a Super Grand Solar Minimum as confirmed by Valentina Zharkova. Plus the double whammy of the earth moving about a million miles further from the sun by 2024 Experts such as David Birch and Lee Wheelbarger have both calculated Valentinas formular and have come out within .5Deg C of each other, with a TSI drop of a massive 8 watts which will be way past 1359 watts that John Casey says is LIA level, I reckon there will be huge food shortages by 2024 and very acute by 2028.
On 21 Feb 2019, Gerry 45d 164ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
I have often measured UHI on my car thermometer at 5 degrees! Some interesting stuff not happening on the sun. Run of 20 days spotless, currently 34 spotless days in total which is 67%. That beats last year's 61% and heading towards the recent peaks in 2009 and 2008. Cloudy start but the sun is out now. Another pleasant evening to watch football last night.
On 21 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
"On Monday night, the river of air 35,000 feet above the New York City area, known as the jet stream, clocked in at a blazing 231 mph. This is the fastest jet stream on record since 1957 for the National Weather Service in Upton, New York — breaking the old record of 223 mph, according to NWS forecaster Carlie Buccola." ===
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/record-breaking-jet-stream-accelerates-air-travel-el-nino-polar-vortex/
On 21 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
If you watched Gavs winter updates it was one thing he found looking at solar min winters they really don't start going until min is reached not the year before and we could be a year or so still off min. Think about this current solar cycle. The cold winters of 2009 to 2013 were after this solar cycle started. Pretty much all of us want snow so we do hopecast somewhat. A disappointing winter yes but I had a good snow fall, fair amount of frost and finally some fog in the past week! But this island has a p*** poor history of decent snow. We get periods but not like most of the globe at our latitude. As we move into SC25, with the Atlantic due to descend to a colder phase, and the cycle lag kicks in our prospects will change greatly but we will still have mild winters, hot summers and everything else the jetstream sends our way. It's the out of season stuff that causes the real damage e.g. snow/frost in June 1976 which came as SC21 started. Interesting times lie ahead. 😀
On 21 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
So what has happened really? We've lost the real night time minimums which to a fair degree we have influenced one way or another. We have also for the past 40 or so years been in warm phases of both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. They take time to release the heat from the grand solar maximum and you could argue, due to their phases, were storing the heat during the ice age scare of the 40s - 70s. Once the sun eased off the heat was released back. How much heat left its a matter of conjecture. Nothing we've seen hasn't been seen before. Is it an LIA imprint this last decade? I'd say so based on the blocking + meridional jetstream. That's the sun. The cold winters of late 70s to 87 could be argued as a lag of 1 cycle from SC20. As for this winter (not done yet even if I see, nor did see a big freeze) it probably came to early. Signs are good. We're just in a warm pocket of a big hemisphere....
On 21 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
One thing I would add, and there is nothing new under the sun, its that there are some influences we do have. 1. UHI. Mostly we measure temps in towns, cities & airports. They have grown massively. The difference in my semi rural location to town is massive not the (IIRC) 0.5C allowed for UHI. I have lots of frost - they don't. In the USA the pristine climate system (not low grade parking lots with ice cream vans parked by the temp sensors) don't show the warming the massively adjusted GISS does. All that dark asphalt + concrete retain heat released at night. 2. Clean Air acts. We don't get the fogs we used to and we get far more clear skies. It affects temps when we are talking tenths of a degree here and there. 3. Land use. Ever notice how snow settles on grass but not brown ploughed fields? (grass is cooler than a field) In South Australia Jo Nova noted a few years ago how after they cut down the forests for farmland precipitation dropped (trees help make rain basically).
On 21 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Full post here === https://craigm350.wordpress.com/2014/04/14/the-dirty-politics-of-the-ipcc/ ===
So if you study history there is nothing to worry about in regards to CO2. Yes the alarmists are going wild but let's be honest they switched from global warming when that wasn't working to the catch all climate change to the now climate crisis espoused by Green Deal whacko AOC. I said about 7 or 8 years ago that as the period Piers predicted showed itself they would latch onto extremes as proof but they claim everything as proof. During the 2011 the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami I was on a message board and watched a well know climate activist flounder about because she "knew" it was caused by climate change. Time and time again Joe B warns of a upcoming pattern + the associated climate ambulance chasers who will surely follow. So really who cares? It's warmed. And?
On 21 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
"I have always thought it a misfortune that the general introduction of plumbing into British homes coincided with the quite unusual run of mild winters between 1896 and 1936. And possibly some of the modern glass architecture and the hill-top sites with an open south-west aspect which became so desirable a few years ago seem less to be recommended in the 1950s." [1]
REFERENCES
[1] HH Lamb – The Changing Climate (Routledge Revivals): Selected Papers Note – the paper was ‘The changing climate, past and present; which appeared in Weather, October 1958, Vol 145, pp. 299-318
On 21 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Probably the key message we should be taking, one that is well lost in the race to throw more money on ‘limiting’ carbon emissions, providing vast subsidies for unreliable renewable and preparation for a warmer, drier Mediterranean climate in Northern Europe that never came, is believing the ‘amelioration’ would continue and basing our lives on that assumption. In April it is often warm and sunny, so a visitor to these Isles may be fooled into leaving the jacket at home, whilst those of us with more experience rarely leave the home without it to hand. Lamb makes an interesting observation that lies at the heart of how we should base our future planning for our changing climate;
On 21 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
[…] in spite of the sharp turn towards warming after 1987-8, and the undeniably very warm years 1989-91 and 1995, one must feel uneasy about the confidence with which global warming has been publicised as the verdict of science in official pronouncements from many quarters.The erratic course of the changes experienced through the 20th century surely suggests that there are processes at work which are still not adequately understood and possibly even some influences that have not yet been identified." [end Lamb quote]
On 21 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
"The great period of warming, at least in the northern hemisphere, was during the first 40 years of the 20th century (especially the first and fourth decades), but in the 1950s and 1960s when the CO2 was increasing more rapidly than ever before the prevailing temperatures were falling. Callendar himself was worried by this discrepancy and contacted both me and Professor Gordon Manley about it. There seem, in fact, to have been a number of shorter runs of sometimes up to 50 years with either rising or falling temperatures often setting in suddenly, and with no clear correspondence to changes in the atmospheric CO2 content. We also see that account must be taken of psychological reactions—even in the influential research community—to the variations towards greater or less warmth as and when they occur. […]
On 21 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
[end of Lamb quote] Adding the 1990s to the above we have a further striking ‘amelioration’ – that coincided during a time of rising CO2 levels. We now appear to be heading into a period of global cooling, although to what degree is uncertain. The problem with believing CO2 is the controlling factor in climate clouds the mind to having any degree of perspective. If CO2 controls the climate you can ignore all the other factors, something which time and again has bitten the Met Office hard in the ass. It means you ignore the ocean oscillations and the Jetstream, which you later rely on as a get out clause for your failed predictions/projections – which everyone else not deluded with CO2 mania already knew. I repeat a quote by Hubert Lamb from a previous post [co2 a cycle of excuses]
On 21 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
The summer climate of southern England (as far north as the line from the Fens to Hereford) in the early Middle Ages was similar to that of the Paris-Touraine region of northern France nowadays : between 1930 and 1949 our summer climate again approached this level (and I believe peach trees and other southern varieties did well accordingly) but since 1950 the figures in summer, as in winter, are back to late nineteenth century standards. We do not know whether the latest turn in our climactic fortunes, since the optimum years of the 1930s, marks the beginning of a serious downward trend or whether it is merely another wobble – one more of the semi-regular oscillations on a time scale of 20 to 60 years. There have been other striking ‘ameliorations’ before – even during the Little Ice Age : the mild periods around the 1630s, 1730s, 1770s and 1840s must have been quite impressive.
On 21 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Hubert Lamb said in 1958 [my emphasis]
We in Britain do not (most of us) live near the climactic margins of our type of civilisation.The changes of the figures in the climactic tables from one period to another do not look very impressive . Nevertheless, they are significant in various respects, affecting for instance the geographical limits of cod and herring and birds and the thriving of crop plants and trees. With some of these the response to climactic shifts is very quick. The winter climate in Finland in the 1930s was no severer than that of Denmark in the last century. The winter climate of London in 1780-1820 was about the same as that of the Rhineland in our times.
On 21 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
... I wrote this back in 2014 === "Since coming out of the LIA over a hundred years ago we have warmed by roughly~1C and in the past ~30yrs the rate is 0.35C (roughly +1.2C/century) whilst CO2 emissions continued to rise. This is in contrast to low end computer predictions of 1.5C per century, so to warm to the rate of 3.7-4.8C per century is the same as a politician repeatedly barking on about ‘green shoots of recovery in the middle of an economic recession – or running around telling everyone the sky is falling. .. Lord Monckton of Brenchley points to the ‘global warming’ trend from 1663 to 1762 "The rate of warming was 0.9 Cº, and that rate occurred over 100 years rather than the 124 years 1880-2013 [ 0.9 Cº]... And it was entirely natural warming."
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/13/earth-to-lovejoy-0-9-c-in-a-century-is-not-huge/
On 21 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Rich - OK so it's warmer and? We're no longer in the LIA and we've been warming, in fits and starts, pretty much since the start of the CET record. As Monckton has pointed out the warming from ~1700 - 1730 was exceptional (eyeballing about 2C). As well as Andy's quote about 1878 there are several reminiscing about old fashioned winters in the early part of the 20thC & of course the warming in the Arctic.
Quotes at the time of 62/63 also hark back to old fashioned winters. The early to late 70s had poor winters which then of course turned cold for about a decade or so until 1987 (my guess lag from SC20)....
On 20 Feb 2019, Rich wrote:
Andy, I dont have an issue with saying in your part of the Uk nothing has changed or winters overall are colder. But I stand by what I said that winters are overall less severe which has yoy being backed up by CET data. You can argue data flawed, that Im a heratic etc if it makes you feel better. As I said the other day the argument goes round and round.
On 20 Feb 2019, Andy L (Cambridge) (occasional sub.) wrote:
Rich Re: Winter not what it used to be. It seems observers such as you, Fred and Glenn bemoaning this as a recent and unwanted phenomenon is not new. A report in the East Anglian Daily Times newspaper comments that on Christmas Day in Ipswich "....the frost held sharp and reminded one of the good old-fashioned Christmas time we once had but which has for so long deserted us in this ... part of the globe". The date: 1878.
On 20 Feb 2019, Rich wrote:
Uk Cet anomaly to feb 19 2019 now at +0.91 deg C. Feb is +2.2. Dec was 2.2 so winter 18/19 will be an anomaly around +1.5 deg
On 20 Feb 2019, Rich wrote:
David,C View etc, you have demonstrated what Ive been saying by pointing to individual examples of extremes, which I said we can all do and records hot and cold will continue to be broken around the planet. My point is from my own experience dating memory point of view back to late 70s in UK, is the frequency of cold and or snowy weather has reduced, thats backed up by CET data,or visa versa. As was pointed out UK being the only country to be expieriencing GW wont fly
As
On 20 Feb 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Probably posted this before - https://www.historyextra.com/period/medieval/6-of-the-most-catastrophic-weather-events-in-british-history/
On 20 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, quite a bit of overnight rain, cloudy all day with a strong SW’ly breeze for most of the day, max temp 12˚, highest daytime temp so far this year, we were working up a sweat sawing & chopping firewood, clear moonlit evening, 8˚ at 9.30pm.
On 20 Feb 2019, C View wrote:
Re winter not being what it used to be. A trawl of old newspaper headlines reveals "Britain in winter heatwave" Jan 1935. "Freak winter heatwave, warmest December in 50 years" 1954 Also 70F on South Coast of England 1953. If you look hard enough you will find there is no such thing as new weather. It has all happened before.
On 20 Feb 2019, Gerry 45d 164ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Heard a woodpecker drumming this morning while feeding the fish before leaving for work. Glorious morning to pass through the Surrey countryside on the train. Lovely football match last night with a full moon and church bells ringing, and a win on penalties. As to the UK, with more snow across the USA - where most of the temp stations for the world are - us having a bit of warmth is not going to affect the global temp. Claiming global warming is limited to the the UK will be a hard sell.
On 20 Feb 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
C View
The central European situation you describe happened in a similar pattern in 1981/2. The world alpine ski championships in February 1982 in Schladming had to postpone the blue riband Mens Downhill a few times because it was too warm, but it was a winter when the snow artived early and left late.
All it takes to get +8C in mountains is a southerly wind from North Africa, the Med or the Azores. Absolutely normal weather.
On 20 Feb 2019, Fred wrote:
Glenn has a point. I work as an exam invigilator and record cold and snow in Wisconsin, Illinois, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii and other parts of the US and worl means nothing to kids over here. Most don’t take geography so don’t even know where these places are. What matters is the MILD UK winters and that AGW is to blame. These cold extremes need to hit the UK for LIA claims to have any bite or the AGW brigade will continue to have a field day.
On 19 Feb 2019, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 164ft wrote:
Rich people are not greedy - we are just much better at making money than poor people.
On 19 Feb 2019, Glenn wrote:
It seems we can no longer pretend that the weather this February is not wrong. This will end up as the warmest February ever. And you all know what that means for poor old UK. Since climate change policy is based on all the mild winters since 1988, this winter will ultimately mean even higher green taxes for Britain. And these green taxes will not affect the greedy rich people, no they will affect the poor indigenous British people
On 19 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, very bright and sunny morning with a max temp of 11˚ by midday, W’ly wind turning into the S by afternoon when it also gradually clouded over but stayed dry, some rain expected overnight, 6˚ by 9pm. Heard first blackbird sing today, usually the song thrushes are first, haven’t heard any yet. Chaffinches started practicing on Saturday.
On 19 Feb 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Rich when you say winters are not like they were in UK, which historical period are you referring to? Taking into consideration 08/09, 09/10, 10/11, 12/13 and last year's Easterly in Feb, I don't understand what your point there. Bare in mind December 2010 coldest for 100 Years or more and same for March 2013.
On 19 Feb 2019, Rich wrote:
Ahh, the crux of the problem, we can all cherry pick extreme events, supporting ,,CO2 or LIA theory, both point to extreme weather theory as supporting theory. Most would point to world average temps as supporting CO2, but LIA theory dismisses this as dodgy data, so we go round and round in circles. Cant answer for all planet but Uk winters not what they were, as to what they will be like ......
On 19 Feb 2019, C View wrote:
Suggestion for Piers. Given the huge contrasts this winter, record cold in North America , and the mild quite dry winter here with temps here in Scotland ranging between -15 and +14 a lack of storms and the contrasts in Central Europe with some ski resorts which were deluged with snow now seeing daytime highs of +8. It would be nice to get his take on where all this fits in the LIA pattern
On 18 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, cloudy but bright & dry all day, still a strong SW’ly wind, max temp 8˚, down to 1˚ by 10pm under a fairly clear sky, noticeably colder. The dry weather we’ve had so far this year is remarkable, haven’t had such a dry Feb in quite a number of years it seems to me.
On 17 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, cloudy for most of the morning but then we had a splendid sunny afternoon and clear evening, max temp 9˚ in a beefy and fresh SW’ly wind, 4˚ at 9.30 and a braw bricht moonlicht nicht taenicht, as they say.
On 17 Feb 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
The lack of rain this winter is concerning, I might have to consider watering containers later this week in the garden. Not good, probably means a cold wet Spring.
On 17 Feb 2019, Rich wrote:
UK cet anomaly For feb at+1.5, uk winter to date +0.6 so far on top of dec +2 deg anomaly. Looks like we are exception to rule Gerry? I dont think we will see return of beast,happy to write off remainder of winter 18/19 looking at models! Early daffs looking lovely in feb warmth & sun.
On 17 Feb 2019, Glenn wrote:
To anyone who thinks that this warm weather in February is good, think again. Even schools are now having protests over this warmest ever February.
On 17 Feb 2019, Glenn wrote:
I’m afraid that snow in places like Hawaii is of no use to me whatsoever. As we are getting towards the end of February my lack of snow depression is kicking in more intense than what it ever has done before.
On 17 Feb 2019, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 164ft wrote:
We are still a week short of last year's coldest week so for those who think winter is over and done, think again. Lots of snow records being set in the USA, including Hawaii. If there is any warming at the moment it is not global. And the Australian BOM have fiddled their records yet again to reduce inconvenient past warm temps. They have even set a new record high but with no fanfare in case anyone wonders how some places can be changed by 7 degrees and some have a higher minima than maxima. Strange how they get upset when they are not trusted.
On 17 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, mild SW’ly wind, sunny start but then turning into a mostly cloudy day with a fresh wind most of the time, max temp 11˚, dry, 6˚ by midnight, way past my bedtime.
On 15 Feb 2019, Fred wrote:
Big diurnal range down here....Spring by day, frosty and wintry by night. The slug is back...an extreme set up as it’s going nowhere for some time...long live the slug
On 15 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, sunny by 7.40: the mornings are now catching up big time. Another lovely sunny day with a bit of cloud in the afternoon and a beefy & cold SW’ly wind, max temp 11˚, down to 6˚ by 9.30pm. This dry weather is just brill.
On 15 Feb 2019, Andy (Chiltern Hills) wrote:
Eastsides comment 31st Jan is now not just looking like an egg on face scenario but more like he charged face first into a hen house
On 15 Feb 2019, Rich wrote:
Sledge in garage, barbi out of garage, winter (S England bar shouting) largely over and out. Dont forget wax yr skis before you put them away,assuming you actually managed to use them. Nothing showing on models currently supporting end of feb cold,quite the opposite!
On 15 Feb 2019, Gerry 45d 164ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Seattle has just had the snowiest month on record going back to 1891. Yes, we know it is an atmospheric river at work but this record says a lot.
On 15 Feb 2019, Ben Farrington sub wrote:
blue skies 14° spring marches on here NW Moray. Noticed some school kids were on "strike" today protesting about global warming in the high street, very well attended. I guess some just bunking off school excuse. So global warming hoax crashing???? Really I don't think so its a strong now as it's ever been. If it's systematically taught at school and even then be allowed to skip school and protest.
Piers should I put back my ski's into the loft until next winter? Or is there an outside chance of some elusive northern blocking on the horizon.
On 14 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, overcast, light SW’ly wind which beefed up a bit in the afternoon, max temp 9˚ but no sun at all, though pleasantly dry and great for getting on with digger work creating a new hard standing for our firewood; the wood that we planted some 27 years ago is now yielding sticks every year, 6˚ at 9.30pm. Though I would be just as happy with snow I don’t mind the mild weather at all.
On 14 Feb 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Agreed Craig - what part of weak and meandering jet stream don't people get?? That's what we have now.
On 14 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Glenn - the only joke is that people continue to believe LIA = just cold. It's extremes at both ends of the spectrum caused by cold sinking down from high latitudes and warmth pushing up from lower latitudes. The blocking patterns are the big giveaway and what do we have now? This mega heatwave happened..... in the Little Ice Age ===
https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2014/07/07/extreme-weather-megadrought-of-1540-much-worse-than-2003/
On 14 Feb 2019, Glenn wrote:
Spring has arrived in the uk and it’s only February 14th. Im sure there are plenty on here that actually like unseasonably warm temperatures in winter but it actually makes the LIA a joke, in fact it’s getting more of a joke by the day. Here in the UK anyway looks like we have done quite badly out of the LIA with both America and Europe enjoying the freezes and heavy snowfalls.
On 14 Feb 2019, Gerry 45d 164ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
I suspect the 2000 odd cows that have died in Idaho and Washington would prefer some global warming as they didn't seem to like the deep snowdrifts, strong winds and temps down to -27.8C. Greece gets more snow and Moscow has a record storm although the actual snow amount seems uncertain. Hawaii has 4ft snowdrifts down at 6200ft - it does get regular snow on the mountain tops but this is noteworthy. The Swedish schoolgirl who shared a platform in Davos with one of the World's leading tax avoiders appears to be a PR stunt to sell a book on global warming by her opera singer mother and to raise money to fight climate change - or make somebody's live nicer at other fools expense. Re - Dave King of Edenbridge, I wonder if his method will stand up during the current LIA given the change in the jetstream pattern since all previous records would not record such a pattern.
On 14 Feb 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
RICH: try a sledging holiday in Hawaii
On 13 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, overcast & windy from the SW but with occasional spells of brightness, max temp 10˚, dry all day which was great for digging out ground for a hard standing, the wind certainly helps, 8˚ at 9.30pm. Birdsong is audibly changing but no chaffinches or thrushes calling yet, they usually start by mid February.
On 13 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Well it doesn't look like anything interesting to note on the next week or so weatherwise as the high parks itself by the UK again. On the plus side lovely today & a nice feel of spring in the air. This winter bar the late Jan episode has been poor as it promised much but as I did say for the BI a battleground scenario can sometimes leave us hanging. Certainly I didn't see a cold lock in. From here on I don't see one either but episodic snow events are very possible although rare. A positive of not hanging about is life can move on again quickly... But crop damage is a v. real prob esp. for sharp late frosts once the buds are out. Just to list some late snows; Mar 1891, Apr 1913/22, Feb/Mar 33, Apr 50 (+58), Mar 52, Mar 70 Jun 75, Apr 81, Apr 08 to name a few. These also includes (several) inches of snow of the settling kind even in London. We're not a sol min yet so maybe this winter is too early. We'll see how next 2-3 (2022) go & know for certain. Cold springs are likely I believe.
On 13 Feb 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Rich, lol - The UK has narrowly missed out on 2/3 occasions this winter. Blocks have not positioned themselves favourably. Personally I did say, at the start of winter it would be dominated by high pressure over us or to the North. The reality is that's not been far from the truth. Hardly been an Atlantic driven winter which is seen as the norm.
On 13 Feb 2019, Gerry 45d 164ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Bob - thanks for the info about my near neighbour Dave King. Strange things mornings. Monday saw ice on the windscreen - and inside actually - but just moisture on the side windows. Tuesday morning, ice in and out but nothing, yes, nothing at all, on the side windows. This morning was wet all around. Any ideas why? I don't have a cooled windscreen as far as I know. I know it could be the angle of the windscreen but that doesn't explain the side windows on Mon & Tue. Pleasantly sunny during the days although cloud rolled in mid afternoon yesterday. If anyone has spotted my changed elevation it is not because I have moved or the ground has subsided. Intrigued by local snow variations I was looking at the contours on Bing maps and realised I was lower than thought. Does explain the variations though.
On 13 Feb 2019, Rich wrote:
Agree with you on that Dave, I would say looking at models across the board more likely a Sauna from the South than a Beast from the East. Unused sledge now being moved to summer storage shelf (swap with barbi) to await the onset of LIA winter next year or thereafter...
On 13 Feb 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Ben - i personally cannot see it happening at end of the Month. Birds are not feeding that much anyway.
On 12 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, cloudy with sporadic light rain but drying up soon enough, sky clearing by 11am, sunny for the rest of the day and really warm even in the occasionally gusty SW’ly wind, max temp 11˚, some cloud returning but first quarter moon and stars visible at night, 3˚ at 10pm. It did feel really pre-spring like today but I’m old enough not to be fooled by this, though we will start sowing some early stuff in our propagator inside the tunnel soon.
On 12 Feb 2019, Ben Farrington - sub wrote:
Early spring like conditions today up here in NW Moray, 12 deg, blue skies. Though evidence of recent snowfalls just about hanging on at the Clashindarroch Forest, Aberdeenshire. Where I got another XC ski in this morning, where snow remains at depths up to 20cm at altiitudes between 350 and 500m. Looks like this large high pressure may stick around for a while, I don't see any chance of record or near record amounts of snow this month or early March. Piers are you still confident for the later stages of this month? Given the number of cold forecasted periods this winter not appearing (in this country)
On 12 Feb 2019, Mark Fuller wrote:
Not writing winter off just yet as last winter didn't arrive until the last week of February. And although there was no snow here in North Liverpool, it was exceptionally cold. This winter we've had a fleeting sprinkling of snow in late Jan. and a handful of frosty nights- basically, yet again, we've not really had a winter. Although I long for the "proper" winters of Central and Eastern Europe, as well as most parts of North America, I suspect that the novelty would quickly wear off, and I'd be praying for boring , mild winters to return. Snow lovers should be careful what they wish for.
On 12 Feb 2019, Sarah Jenkins wrote:
Hi Piers, I am very disturbed by the CO2 Hoax. Lots of good people including children using their energy on this despite all the other very real and pressing issues. Poverty, pollution et all. I am also concerned about geoengineering and I have heard you say you don't think they are having much effect on the weather. I am aware of course of other nefarious aims of this technology. Can you see geoengineering going on via instruments you use ? It seems to me they are successfully dimming the sun here North Essex. please get back to me on this.
On 11 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, good old frost but amazingly clear, yet another brilliant sunny morning, max temp 6˚ in a W’ly breeze that turned more SW’ly in the afternoon’s gradual clouding over, 2˚ at 10pm with some light rain. MO forecasts temps of 10˚ for tomorrow.
On 11 Feb 2019, Lorraine wrote:
https://youtu.be/dR7IlDKzd90
Lorraine/// ok hi everyone so above I have posted a you tube link to the Innuit Indians saying the sun has shifted or the earth. Therefore sun is more overhead - also wind changes - also a great deal of recent you tube postings about the moon the phase of the moon does not now go left to right but bottom to top - take a peak outside
On 11 Feb 2019, Bob (Morecambe) - non-sub wrote:
I enjoy all your comments and follow them daily. I have not noticed any reference to a website called "Weather without technology" generated by a David King living in the Kent Surrey border. He seems to have got the weather pretty correct for his area this time round. It is a fun website to read with its history and watching nature doing its bit. Keep up the good work which I shall continue to follow with much interest.
On 11 Feb 2019, Geoff wrote:
Heading into mid / late Feb now and the GFS 12z Stratosphere 10h Pa shows the seasonal polar vortex getting smaller by the day. Pretty soon you'll be able to fit it into a nice hiball tumbler with a slice of lemon!
On 11 Feb 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
I was actually referring to the period we are in now and haven't said it is wrong or inaccurate. 5-9 was quite good overall. I know we allow z couple of days either side etc.
On 11 Feb 2019, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
THANKS ALL FOR GREAT COMMS +=+=+ BUT GUYS (at least some Guys) note 1. We've had quite a bit of snow in parts confirming forecast - although not as much in other parts but note we're not done yet. 2 The Forecast head page1 clearly warns of contrasting short milder blasts and thaws = confirmed with thaw floods in Scotland 3 The graph show the coldest part is late Feb and early Mar. 4 I've noticed just about everyone who uses forecasts overstates in their minds what they want and ignores or under-expects the rest. 5 DAVE C, YORKSHIRE, You refer to 5-9 Feb+-1d since you write on 10th about sunshine recently had. That forecast clearly states (mostly) dry and BRIGHT/FINE in all parts (inc Yorkshire) except for NE (most of Scotland esp East and North of North England). The sunshine you've had CONFIRMS forecast. 5 Forecast for 10-13th+-1d expects more snow and cold - which is now in short-range forecasts in the wake of Storm Erik.
On 10 Feb 2019, Michael wrote:
I think this winter especially for West Yorkshire has been one of the worst I can remember for lack of snow. Not sure what's gone wrong with piers' forecasts but they have been way off. Some of the headlines are straight out of the exacta camp. In future I suggest the words wintry and showers replace snow and blizzards. Might help set expectations for us snow lovers. Roll on winter 2020.
On 10 Feb 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Some nice sunny spells this morning but parky out in it esp. with the breeze picking up again around midday, so I spent my 2 hours off exercising in the tunnel instead today and was nice with a temp of 15 in there compared to barely 7 outside managed to get one side of the tunnel sorted for growing, some light showers afternoon & wind still blowin a bit and cold tonight. Dartmoor always was a good indicator if winter was still with us, v.pretty too 😀
On 10 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-2˚C at 7.30, clear as a bell, beautiful sunny morning and most of the afternoon, wind starting off W’ly and gradually turning into the NW, max temp 6, rain by 9pm, 3˚ at 10pm. So much sun these days.
On 10 Feb 2019, Rich wrote:
Yes, not expecting a headline posting of 'Mild end to winter, early taste of spring as forecast 6 months ago in line with LIA'. Not this time anyway. Weather harder to predict than climate. Everybody else has got their forecasts out as well for feb looking at most forecasts end nov/start dec
On 10 Feb 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
I don't think this period of the Piers forecast has paned out too well. Feels quite pleasant in the sunshine.
On 10 Feb 2019, Sou'wester wrote:
Maria, you might be interested to know that it snowed again on Dartmoor last night. I might take Rich up on his offer of a sledge. Keep munching. In fact we had snow tin the SW two days before everybody else "in the South of England " were reporting here earlier, so just wait a couple of days..... Or am I having an Alan Partidge moment?
On 09 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, cloudy with a W’ly wind increasing in strength and blowing all day with some really beefy gusts, max temp 8˚ nevertheless and a good dose of sunshine again, what I would call inspiring weather, things drying up nicely in the wind after yesterday’s heavy rain, 4˚ at 10pm.
On 09 Feb 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Rain and wind outside was quite intense around midnight and continued into the morning. All was quiet by late morning with a few sunny spells and a bird chattering outside, still on the cool side of 7 deg, some huge clouds heading into the afternoon and thought we might get some thunder but we did get a bit of sleet then a hail rain shower come down torrential for a couple of bursts. Dropped colder after and 3 deg now at 9.14pm.. Have started on the pumpkin sunflower n flax seeds.. 🤔
On 09 Feb 2019, Rich wrote:
SE Cambs- after 2 days of wild and woolly weather its settled down, quite mild with welcome sun. Forecasts showing mild average weather the next few weeks so at the moment my expectations of a above average winter 18/19 CET looks pretty safe for Dec-Feb. Guess, it is only a guess, is based on trends (I work in forecasts- not weather ones) is we will see another summer well above CET, probably drier and next winter will be above average CET. Interesting to see how the weather/climate develops the next ten years with planet forecast to see even higher temps the next 10 years (big picture - possibly not UK- but I will hazard it will). Or we will see temps drop and perhaps arctic ice sheet start to recover after decades of decline. 10 years is not long to wait- fingers crossed its the latter for all of us, including my children. PS - anybody want to buy a second sledge- unused- RON perhaps? (sorry RON couldn't resist)
On 09 Feb 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Maria - Possibly, if you start eating wild seeds and suet let me know.
On 09 Feb 2019, out_east wrote:
Big thaw now taking place, wind moved to SW and temperature came up to +2>+4.
All the streets covered in the most treacherous ice layers for now, and water pouring off the roofs.
It will last a week, then the temp drops back right down again.
No end of a see-saw.
On 09 Feb 2019, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 164ft wrote:
A lot of rain and disruption. Trees down on railway lines but not mine luckily. However, road closed to the north of the station on arrival. Probably a flood as there is a road draining downhill. First time the footpath has had flooding as lakes in field to left draining across into ditch and old pond on right. Old maps show watercourse draining down by path to a pond. No more drama getting to farm shop but coming home the dip under the railway bridge beneath the Redhill-Tonbridge line was full of water - no surprise. But there was also a car in the middle of it so had to turn back and go the long way home. I would have put money on a home football match being cancelled but the boys are away this afternoon on a better draining pitch.
On 09 Feb 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
The sheer utter nonsense of GFS: late last night it was showing a massive outbreak of very cold PM air over the UK and much of Europe in the last week of February, and this morning a massive Spanish plume type incursion of warm air.
On 09 Feb 2019, Bill S (N E Wales) wrote:
Exceptionally windy this morning Strong westerly gale waking me up at 4am.Looks like it’s north of England North Wales getting the brunt at the moment. I Spare a thought for the Fylde coast it looks grim according to xc reports Been mild this week rainfall total 24mm this month.
On 08 Feb 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Ps David i'm counting calories and eating healthy but this week on a couple of occassions i've had to top up with 30g of mixed nuts as been feelin extra hungry, even had to do 4 squares of Dairy Milk choc tonight so maybe a cold spell is on the way? !-)
On 08 Feb 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Woke to the tiny one & heard the wind and rain around 3.30 a.m yellow wind warning for us orange on the West coast. Wind increased later in the morning then quiet for a time with some sunny spells peeking through before round 2 of wind and rain this eve. Not as bad here during the day but fairly gusty out at times now at 10pm and noticeably cooler again, is this stormyish spell a precurser to more cold weather? Usually seems a seesaw effect so I guess time will tell. Paddy, sounds the best way to view the stars, plus better than snow stress :-)
On 08 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, heavy rain lasting all morning in a strong S’ly wind, some bright interludes but cloudy & showery all afternoon, max temp 7˚, clear evening with 5˚ at 9.30. I’m glad all this rain wasn’t snow!
On 08 Feb 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Glenn is even becoming obsessed with the South East. especially Norwich. He has turned into Alan Partridge AHAA
On 08 Feb 2019, Rich wrote:
David- ahha, ok get the drift, I missed the bigger picture you were referring to...
On 08 Feb 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Rich, don't take my comments with just the UK in mind, look at the bigger picture. Thanks
On 07 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, quite a bit of rain overnight and still going until about 9, then it brightened up and we had yet another sunny day with some cloud, max temp 6˚, NW’ly breeze for most of the day with occasional stronger gusts, 0˚ by 9.30pm, quite a few stars out. Maria, my version of looking at the stars is called stargrazing as it involves being close to the grass :-) but speaking of which, we have been really fortunate this winter with frequent open skies early morning & evening to view the stars and watch it all change every day as time moves along.
On 07 Feb 2019, Rich wrote:
David- I wandered by accident onto the comments section last year and saw your view/forecast that the cold spell at the end of last feb was to be a mere taster of what was to come this winter and following winters. Not quite come to plan this year, any thoughts on next winter?
On 07 Feb 2019, Stan wrote:
Ron, you are right another sleety PM outbreak won’t affect me at all. These milder winters make my job much easier.
On 07 Feb 2019, Istvan ilyes wrote:
Stiff if cold southwest wind blowing down here in the south.still waiting for a spell of winter. Maybe a northeasterly would be acceptable down here.
On 07 Feb 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
the ever accurate and reliable GFS model ( hee haw, ho, ho ho) is predicting rather a sharp outbreak of PM air in the last week of this month with some 'east' in it. Wonder if it'll miss 'the usual suspects' south of Derby.
On 07 Feb 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Birds have eased off their greed for feed. If they ramp up again, I will expect another cold spell.
On 06 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, clear sky & sunny morning with a S’ly wind, cloudy for a time in the afternoon, max temp 6˚, all snow and frost gone now, sunny end to the day with an open sky in the evening, 0˚ again by 10pm. It’s remarkable how much sun we’ve had over the last 10 days, very little winter gloom.
On 06 Feb 2019, Geoff wrote:
"No" I didn't blame any particular forecaster for the lack of winter, Ronnie...but, if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it's probably a turkey!!
On 06 Feb 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
OUT_EAST Perhaps you should just put the current reality compared to your prediction for this period down to experience and take it from here. Standard models not in agreement with one predicting quite a chilly PM outbreak this coming weekend for the UK ( though again not affecting Geoff, Stan,Glenn, Rich and Istvan)
On 06 Feb 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
MOAN -MEISTER climate and weather commentary service reports complaints that a small island bathed in North Atlantic warm drift currents gets an oceanic Atlantic winter and not a Continental climate and blames weather forecasters for it. FFS.
On 05 Feb 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Well that one fell flat for me Paddy seeing as you said morning not eve. :-) lack of 😴 honestly...
On 05 Feb 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
A fab sunny cool day yesterday lots of blue sky and a bit of cloud rather than a lot of cloud and a bit of blue. Great for getting outside about the place, snow drops have been out a couple weeks but purple crocus have just popped out in the garden, the daffs by a sheltered wall are up quite high ready to pop as opposed to daffs exposed only about 5 inches of foliage. Noticed seemed lighter longer last night esp. being a clear day. Complete contrast today with lots of rain even a bit windy out this morning max 9 deg though a cool starry finish 5 deg with a dewpoint of 3. Ahh gees Paddy go careful there is easier ways to view the stars :-) (Came up under a bar in the tunnel once whilst working, hit my head & knocked me clean onto the ground ringing in my ears and had that seeing stars thing, thought it was only in cartoons till that day!-)
On 05 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, clear as a bell and sunny for the whole morning, with temps gradually rising to 5˚, SW’ly - SE’ly wind, feeling cold in the high humidity, cloudy afternoon with rain setting in by 6pm, still 5˚ by 9.30pm. Most of the ice is now gone, though I still managed to slip & fall on my bahookies this morning, it always happens in a split second :-)
On 05 Feb 2019, Rich wrote:
Well summed up Geoff, as regards cold/snow. As RON points out some places did have snow, notably the NW England last Tues, hills in North, S England within 60-70 miles of coast snow last Thurs/ Fri as did SW and Bristol area etc and it with harsh frosts in Scotland and some cold nights. Rest was night frosts and a scattering of snow showers mostly giving a dusting to an inch or so covering it would seem. Few weeks to go but mild looks more likely than cold, so one week of variably colds impacts across the UK looks like being the high point of winter 2018/19. Given seasonal pointers and SSW not a great haul. I wonder whether without SSWs we can get significant cold or snow in UK anymore (or if ever we did before), Anybody know how many of past cold winters were associated with SSW or is data not available? Craig/ or should I say Yoda, any thoughts?
On 05 Feb 2019, Geoff wrote:
...I'm with the Glenn-meister from Norfolk; by and large, this winter has been an absolute turkey!
On 05 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
David - no worries. Deepest snow I've ever seen may have been either Feb 86 or Jan 87 however I think it was the former. Whilst not a snowy month by any means the winds whipped the snow into drifts 3-4ft high by which is pretty impressive for London, even if the general snow depth was not as impressive as the temps looking back. 87 had a fair amount of snow but was more memorable for the ice once the snow froze over. Sadly much of the great snow of the mid 90s missed London although I do remember seeing cars with piles on the roof (should always be cleared!) coming from outside of London. The best by far overall is early Jan 2010. Pavements disappeared. Looking at local records ~ 1ft. Give it 5-10 years and I'm sure I will see more in the rural shires. Just takes a bit of luck and persistence of the snow overhead. Have to say the spell we just had wasn't bad at all and properly ended with a nice thick fog last night.
On 05 Feb 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Thanks Craig, much appreciated. I didn't think there would be a definitive answer to be honest. 47 would be my educated guess based on recollections from family members. In my life time 1996 I reckon in these parts. Due to snowfall late Jan and early February. Probably about 40cm (level) from memory that was in populated areas.
On 05 Feb 2019, Andy B 45D wrote:
A great video on what is happening to our magnetic fields
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dGC-lBUhlo
On 05 Feb 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Recent extreme events:
1) Well over 1 metre of snowfall over 36hr period in parts of NE Italy and Osttirol, leaving several Astrian villages cut off for two days.
2) Well over a dozen Austrian ski resorts with 200cm or more at base station or mid mountain between 1000-1500m altitude, after the huge early January event.
3) Snow depths at 2000m above- to hugely above average in 75% of Swiss alpine regions, mostly due to snow 1/1 to 2/2.
4) 7-10ft snowfall about to complete in Sierra Nevada in California.
5) Rainfall Southern California much above normal (2-4 inches widely from 31/1 to 3/2) and California drought receding steadily week by week.
There is significant similarity in Austria to winter 1981/2, a winter when snow only left many Alpine valleys in late April, three or four weeks later than normal.
On 05 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Then there's this but not sure the original source === Snow depths of a foot or more occurred widely and frequently during the famous severe winters of 1962-63 and 1946-47, and the deepest snow ever measured in an inhabited area in the UK was at Forest-in-Teesdale, County Durham, at the end of the '47 winter – a level depth of 83 inches! === https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/4434770/Snow-Britain-Wrong-kind-of-snow-strikes-again.html
On 05 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
David - not conclusive by any means (may ask on Twitter) as most list Wales 47, however Trevor Harley has this === [Feb 47] "It was a persistent easterly month of the sort that weather people long for: large amounts of snow in the east (e.g. 1.35 m of snow lay at Forrest-in-Teesdale (Durham) on the 18th). http://www.trevorharley.com/weather_web_pages/british_weather_in_february.htm
===In the UK we keep records of the depth of snow each day, but not of the aggregate snowfall for a season. The deepest level snow in a populated area during the 20th century was 1.65 metres - near Ruthin in northeast Wales in March 1947, and at Tredegar in southeast Wales in February 1963.
=== https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/philip-eden/How-deep-can-it-get.htm
On 05 Feb 2019, Stan wrote:
Don’t worry about it too much Glenn.
You’re not alone weather wise. Blackpool
not had lying snow since 2010. No one can predict
weather more than 5 days ahead it seems.
Execpt the global warmists of course who have
models forecasting 100 years ahead lol
On 05 Feb 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Glenn, I hope you are being genuine otherwise that is in poor taste.
On 04 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, winter melting away fast in the light drizzle, cloudy with a SW’ly wind but sun breaking out by 10am and a max temp of 4˚, sunny afternoon & clear evening, the wind having turned into the NW and feeling colder again, -1˚ by 9.30pm under a clear sky. In spite of the thaw we still have quite a lot of ice around, so we’re all walking very gingerly in certain places, snow that melts and then freezes again slows everything down. Maria, I had a couple of backward slips in other winters to the point where I saw stars when the back of my head hid the ground, since then I walk with a stoop whenever it’s that icy, it’s called old man’s winter countenance :-)
On 04 Feb 2019, Glenn wrote:
Sorry if my so called childlike comments are annoying to anyone. With an empty life suffering from autism, bipolar and depression, life is not easy.
On 04 Feb 2019, DaveT wrote:
The Icelanders are a bit worried by the lack of snow! Hardly anything this winter until last week when they finally had proper snow. It was -10C most of the time - you soon find out how good your UK winter clothing is!
The glaciers are shrinking too, some have already gone. It was -20C up on the glacier where we went snow-mobiling. Beautiful sunny day. It looked to be starting a proper snowstorm as we left Reykjavik on Sunday 3rd Feb
On 04 Feb 2019, DaveT wrote:
Just got back from a short winter break in Reykjavik. The aurora borealis hasn't been up to much but when we saw it on Thursday 31st Jan it was very good and the best they have seen all winter.
Was that in the middle of an R5 period? I have this feeling that northern lights and high solar activity ought to go together...
On 04 Feb 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Glenn, I have come to the conclusion you are on a massive wind up with your Child like comments. Out of interest folks, what is the record in England for snow fall in February. Was it 1947 in the modern era? Feb 2009 was pretty bad down even down South.
On 04 Feb 2019, Glenn wrote:
So is this it then? Has AGW finally killed of any chance of snow in norfolk ever again? Soon to be coming up to the end of February when we had real winter last year. Have things really warmed up that much in the last twelve months?
On 04 Feb 2019, Glenn wrote:
I have now lost all faith in the weather this winter for seeing any snow. I now have to resign myself to the fact that I will never see snow again. If it can’t snow in Norfolk this winter then how is it going to in any future winters?
On 04 Feb 2019, Istvan ilyes wrote:
We seem to have a Micro-Climate here in West sussex.we missed all the fuss of the annual snow-drop from last week. What we need is a East wind from Siberia.
On 04 Feb 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID( Yorkshire) and OUT_EAST:
Standard models variable as ever and quite a big difference from even 24 hrs ago, but still showing mainly PM behind any cooler spells oscillating with much milder conditions ( presumably especially afflicting Glenn , Rich and Istvan) Plenty of snow still to come for the Scottish Highlands in this kind of westerly regime during these PM outbreaks, but no sign of high/mid north blocking causing easterlies to affect our weather in Western Europe.
On 04 Feb 2019, Andy (Chiltern Hills) wrote:
Glen,
don't worry, I think most people will sympathise if you miss out on a snow event, Norfolk will often have a greater chance of snow if the system comes from the East as it is right in the firing line.
On 04 Feb 2019, Andy B 45D SE Wales wrote:
Heavy rain overnight about 18 mm cleared away any remaining snow.
Now that we are entering a Super GSM expect longer winters merging straight into shorter perhaps dryer summers and we can expect snow right up until May and don't forget that our earth will be dragged another million miles from the sun during NH winters. There will be many of you
complaining about too much snow by then so be careful what you wish for!
A very interesting forecast for the month Piers, lets hope it doesn't go east again and still no comment from you on Valentina Zharcova's findings.
On 04 Feb 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
That's rich. Rich. Here are the rest of us talking about the winter all over the UK, Ireland and Europe and Glenn, Istvan and yourself concentrating on the winter your are not having outside your front door. How did you miss out on all the MSM reports about the stranded people, closed airports, closed schools, difficult driving and the lowest temperatures for 7-9 years?
On 03 Feb 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Yesterday small half of the snow remained and another cold but not as cold night followed. Today light showers washed it away by the afternoon and i'm kinda glad too as we were left with black ice and icy snow patches and I did nearly fall on my butt trying to get some exercise a walk/jog nearly turned into circus aerobics yesterday. Heavier rain at times this eve. A little windy too s'ly and 7 deg at 10.35pm..I hope you get some soon Glen. ❄
On 03 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Glenn - No you'll find we would have preferred you got a foot of snow as it may sooth your snow stress somewhat until November. You were a bit unlucky as it only took a small adjustment for the system to go north. Cambs got done snow but for once the mid south really did well as the system looked to die but just kept going and going. In 2009/10 I was only a few miles short of having feet of snow. However despite what we crave here some people are relieved they haven't had to deal with black ice pavements that make simple things like attending doctors appointments, getting to emergency calls, earning money (say builders). I also know in Norway they are fed up of the cold + biting wind. Yes the snow is great first 24hrs or so but after you have lethal conditions and the snow is rock solid. Anyway as Paddy says we're only halfway done & there's always April. Rare then yes but usefully gone by the next morning so life can move on again.
On 03 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, overcast to start with but then turning into yet another pretty sunny day, SW’ly wind, change of atmosphere to less sharp cold with a max temp of 2˚, a bit of a snow shower in mid morning not adding much to the lying white stuff, 1˚ by 9.30pm. Overnight rain on the way, winter’ll be all gone by tomorrow, well, for the time being. Mornings now perceptibly lighter, Candlenmas yesterday, half way point between winter solstice and spring equinox.
On 03 Feb 2019, Glenn wrote:
I hope that your are all happy I didn’t get to see any snow this winter. I’m sure everyone is having a good old laugh that it didn’t snow in Norfolk.
On 03 Feb 2019, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
Some wet snow remnants up on the N Downs where I used to live but all gone down on the plains. Some wet snow at Godstone on Friday evening but it didn't settle. Snow coming in from the west rarely makes it this far. The heaviest snow is when it comes in from the east. That also tends to be the colder powdery snow that can drift.
On 03 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
That's the thing with snow. Really cold spells like 62-63 & 47 do hold records for cold & snow depth/persistence but not always. Jan 87 holds many cold records whilst snow depth are often like the Beast last year - cold, short with moisture. 1927 (recalling this from booty) had feet of snow on Salisbury Plain + that started as rain with cold coming in behind as low traversed through. Some of the spells there were winners & losers if looking at snow on the ground ('27 had 2cm in places). For some Dec 2010 & Mar 2013 were poor for snow. Here we have done v well & are in the 3rd morning with ~50% snow cover. Jan had below Av. temps here & above av. snow falling & frosts so much so that add Dec+Jan & both are above av. despite temps being ~+1.5C. Pressure also above av. In terms of an LIA type imprint the exceptional & lasting high pressure early month stands out. It wasn't favourable for cold+snow but it was not normal. Parts of Norway have had snowfall not seen since 1980s.
On 03 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Rich - in a weird way glacier advance has less to do with winter, although a good dumping helps as it takes longer to melt away, cool summers are key:
"More winter snow and less summer melting obviously favours the advance of the equilibrium line (and of the glacier’s leading edge), but of these two variables, it is the summer melt that matters most to a glacier’s budget. Cool summers promote glacial advance and warm summers promote glacial retreat." === https://opentextbc.ca/geology/chapter/16-2-how-glaciers-work/ === the recent snow patch increase (not past 2 yrs as snow patches were gone) was down to the coolish summers we had. Interesting to see what happens if we have another cool summer. // Well - 7C last night 19F! First time since Feb 2012 I believe. - 10C recorded widely in England. The snow went on for some 20hrs & towards eve accumulated again. Inc. melt I'd say 6inches & ~Bath looks to have got 20cms/8inch. Some places reporting most since 2009/10...
On 03 Feb 2019, Rich wrote:
Craig, thanks for response the other day on the question posed around timescales of impacts discussed.
-5 here this morning,lovely sunny day now SE cambs.
RON its a shame you don't want to hear what's happening in rest of Uk and others experience of weather, would you feel better if we all told you we had 6ft of snow, -10 temps and yes we could in fact identify that the LIA was upon us. Fred alluded to the same thing to Piers in his email. Well at the moment many of us can't feel see impacts in our tiny corner of the world. In ten years time we might as per Craigs helpful email, I would start to expect more permanent snow patches to develop on Scotland for one, this year they effectively gone this season looks poor again based on lack of scottish skiing. Drop of only 1-2 deg needed for scottish glaciers to develop, so regardless of CET data and whether you believe I would expect to see eg's in my lifetime. On another note, I wonder if 6 inch of snow in Scotland would be top of the ne
On 03 Feb 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Ron lol, another cold spell is very likely before end of Feb, zonal winds should ease in theory and the Jet is more prone to go South in Feb.. Throw in the SSW and blocking more favourable for the UK looks a strong possibility.Having said that 2014 gave a nasty Feb storm or two. I would say 70% chance of another cold snowy spell mid Month or after.
On 03 Feb 2019, Istvan ilyes wrote:
Hi Ron. Usual sunny day here in the south. A bit cold but pleasant. Mild is the forecast this week .
On 03 Feb 2019, M Lewis wrote:
I see Tory Peer John Gummer has his snout in the man made climate change trough.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6661513/Climate-Change-chief-John-Gummer-faces-calls-quit-payments-green-businesses.html
Interesting what money makes some people do! So much for ethics and public service! Talk about filling your boots!
On 03 Feb 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
Aye, another very sharp frost last night and now heavy snow showers from 08.30 hrs. I see BBC were still showing items on the disruption caused by snow in much of southern England ( well the bits where Rich, Glenn and Istvan don't live, anyway)
On 02 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, about half an inch of snow, picture postcard winter has arrived for the time being. Another beautifully sunny day with a sharp NW’ly wind and a max temp of only just 1˚, down to -3˚ by 9pm.
On 02 Feb 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID(Yorkshire) Rich, Glenn and Istvan have declared UDI for the Republic of Contraria. You use logic and facts against curmudgeonopathic tendencies. Meanwhile out in the real world, we face yet another night of double figure frosts and snow thereafter coming on with more PM air off the Atlantic. The GFS model has now shifted its predicted warmer, more southerly air stream to go over Western Europe and into Eastern Europe and Western Russia, thus, if it happens, ruining OUT_EAST's predictions of last week. and leaving northern Britain with outbreaks of hill snow and coldish temps.
On 02 Feb 2019, Steve C, in Nottingham, wrote:
Much the same here as with Glenn, from the sound of it. We've had a few good sharp frosts overnight at minus 4 or 5, the rest hovering around zero, with daytime temps mostly low single figures even in the sun ... but no snow yet, as at 18:30ish Saturday. If Nott'm is cut off by this time tomorrow, I'll accept the responsibility. ;-D
On 02 Feb 2019, Glenn wrote:
Oh well, another winter that I’ve been forced to miss out on snow. Been quite a lot of them since 1988. This is not a true cold spell, a true cold spell doesn’t include rain and that’s what it’s been doing here the last 2 days. Congratulations to all the spoilt ones who have had snow this winter
On 02 Feb 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Rich not a memorable one here so far but others that don't normally get much snow in UK may disagree. Certainly those in other parts of Europe and definitely those in the vortex are of USA won't forget this winter in q hurry. The Midlands/South of the UK has actually had more snow falls, in recent Years than here in Yorkshire, I would argue. December 2017, Feb/ March 2018 and now this week are examples of this.
On 02 Feb 2019, Rich wrote:
Had dusting this morning, 1deg c. Summary for week, m7ost mornings this week,-1 to -2 day temps 2-4 deg total snow over 4-5 days about. 1 inch which melted each day, thurs morning we managed -5, thats about as wintery as weve had this season, in SE cambs (almost E Anglia). As winters go chalk up as instantly forgettable round these parts, nothing showing on long-term horizon this year, potentially mild on models if to be believed. Looking forward to getting into garden, really noticing the extra daylight, spring is v close!)
On 02 Feb 2019, Glenn wrote:
No snow to report here in Norfolk I’m very sorry to say. Still sitting here looking at non snow covered landscapes. Got sledge out Thursday night as the plan was to go sledging yesterday, not to be in 2019. Certainly no LIA here to speak of. Definitely not a classic like jan 2013 or feb 2018.
On 02 Feb 2019, mike wrote:
Wessex Mercia borders 600'asl
Blue skies sunshine and a white snow covered landscape today - stunning! OAT 37F light northerly winds.
Main roads clear and wet, the village is still digging itself out.
More snow to come???
Regards
m
On 02 Feb 2019, Kim in Calais wrote:
We like snow because it makes us slow down and relax, (rather like a a crackling log fire) if you need a snow fix there are many youtube videos featuring hour long heavy blizzards , lovely in August 😅
On 01 Feb 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Haha oh that was a bit super feckin shloppy for a Friday 😝 Starry and parky out tonight!
On 01 Feb 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
..and being grateful to be alive and sense it all..maybe..
On 01 Feb 2019, Maria ( Ireland) wrote:
It snowed last night for a few hours big flakes mixed in & looked fab, the tiny one was already awake when I introduced her to it briefly and the smile was magic 😁 In settled amount was prob only just over half inch and some melted by morning and the remainder froze solid making the road and everywhere crunchy and a bit tricky, no snow day for the older ones but was great though to get some winter. An old saying when snow still on the ground more to be found will that be the case..It has stuck around tonight and another freeze -1 with -3 dewpoint but met are giving milder wet forecast for next week but could just be another yoyo in the scheme of things. Why do I like cold and snow would be like trying to explain why I like Tea fresh coffee Marmite and peanut butter, except that unlike cold and snow I don't like them all at the same time 😁 Its like experiencing having a family being by the sea, watching the sky the weather in general its being in awe of what you love...
On 01 Feb 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-3˚ at 7.30, yet another sunny day but not as cold as yesterday, barely perceptible W’ly breeze, max temp of 2˚, clear starry evening with a nice touch of mist at ground level, -4˚ at 10pm. MO is saying that it’ll get warmer again by Tuesday, so possibly a return of snow stress for you guys daan saath.
On 01 Feb 2019, Istvan ilyes wrote:
Had a flake or two of snow early this morning.pale white do believe. Its been raining all day. Still raining now 1830hrs. Yes i am waiting for that long expected Lia.
On 01 Feb 2019, Mark Hall wrote:
Dear Piers,
Thanks for giving me a flavour of February, but I would much rather have a look at the full 30day forecast which is still conspicuous by its absence.
On 01 Feb 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Piers your right it brings back fond memories of child hood. Waking in the night to check if it had snowed or snowed again and recovered the areas previously cleared. Lampost watching as Craig calls it. Sometimes the best falls were when it was not forecast and you woke to the sound of cars struggling on the roads. These days I prefer just enough for the kids to enjoy but not more than 10cm, otherwise it becomes a pain for travel etc. Had heavy snow showers here today that travelled in off the north sea, they never get picked up until last minute.
On 01 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Hasn't stopped snowing and a heavy snow pellet shower as I write although with temps 1C and wet bulb and dew points above 0 it's melting fast tho expect dicey tonight. Snow/sleet mix prob go on for some hours yet. Had we had a N/NE/E to follow we would be in business but alas just a good snowfall episode and reminiscent of the more standard 80s spells (not the Freezes). Not exceptional like March 2018 or 2013 by any means // Rich - I don't buy the no food stuff. We are not in or at the same place of previous centuries. It will cause hardship with late/early season frosts droughts/deluge etc but many years would be fine (excluding a high VE volcanic episode)...and some crops will benefit whilst others perish as will wildlife but they have survived previous episodes as have we. As for timing SC25 looks to be similar to SC24 and add in lag and a cooling AMO so from now really but centered IIRC 2030.SC26 could be very low.
On 01 Feb 2019, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Well that all amounted to very little. A bare half inch of snow and warm this morning as much of it had already melted and the roads were clear and wet, much different to yesterday. SE trains ran their Winter timetable - ie fewer trains to avoid queuing - but for no reason. Still they can blame the Met O. NOAA's above average Winter hasn't worked out too well but the Guardian are claiming the cold is due to warming. Evidence? A paper by M Mann saying the models show this. So it would seem that NOAA models didn't or if they did they didn't believe them, but then when has a model output ever been correct?
On 01 Feb 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
PIERS: well said, but we'll now for sure that an LIA has arrived when Rich, Glenn and Istvan see it out of their windows and it comes in the correct shade of white.
On 01 Feb 2019, mike wrote:
Wessex mercia border 60'asl
6 inches of powdery MMGW everywhere this morning. Wish i had ski's! Wind seems to be northerly and quite gusty - some drifting but not as bad as last year...
Snow has not stopped since last night, OAT currently 32F (12:58) and still settling. All my snow clearing effort earlier this morning a complete waste of time 3 hours later.
Main roads clear-ish but heavy slush outside of tyre tracks. Village gloriously snowy kids on toboggans etc etc - not at school...wtx!!?
Enjoy
Mike
On 01 Feb 2019, Rich wrote:
1 deg c in SE Cambs this morning, no snow bar a few flakes in the wind which to be fair was after some tweaks what was forecast on MOBeeb. I'm not disheartened however with EAST-SIDEs forecast of bitter cold and snow from Feb 8th!
On a serious note, when will we start to see/feel in theory significant noticeable (presumably downward) temp/weather changes in UK as result of LIA impact in UK? Think it was STAN (apologies if wrong name) suggested we would be unable to grow food by 2024 with noticeable/drastic changes by 2020 (not long then) with the Super Solar Min. If this is all to happen (and its a BIG IF as to the timing rather whether it can- as its a natural process), then surely BREXIT must be the worse thing to happen as it would stop our free movement south to warmer climbs? (We cant all fit into SE Camb's and the weather bubble can we RON)? Any ideas of timelines and impacts on UK anyone?
On 01 Feb 2019, Fred wrote:
Piers
You should be less harsh as it’s human nature to not pay too much attention to weather extremes if in your own backyard the winter weather is at best average......it needs to hit here I suspect before notice is taken....any signs of that happening? Dec 2010 you saw coming 7 months in advance, you called it as coldest in 100 years and were spot on. Any strong signals ahead? LP systems coming off Atlantic will not produce ice days or prolonged cold spells.
On 01 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Looks to be about 5 inches this morning, deeper than the width of my hand. Currently under an Amber warning which covers Bucks, Berks, Hants. It was put out at 0420 which is bewildering as it was clear by 1AM that the system was pivoting and going to dump on these areas. By then the system was sending winds in from NNE. Snow much wetter now and has had a sizeable transport hit. Think this is the deepest snow here since Jan 2013. Not going to stick around much but very enjoyable whilst it lasts. Longer term signs we may get something favourable as Scandi heights grow, so a possible easterly influence, Models jumping around so a last minute turn around in the outlook always possible. Interestingly Gav's Vids analogues saw more N blocking signatures late winter into Mar. Sun blank again with a KP5 storm last night.
On 01 Feb 2019, Andy (Chiltern Hills) wrote:
Approx 3 inches of snow this morning in Great Missenden area, still snowing, temperature 0 deg
On 01 Feb 2019, @Piers_Corbyn (twitter) London, Chief forecaster wrote:
THANKS FOR THOSE BRILL REPORTS ALL, ESPEC CRAIG!
It snowed here at WeatherAction HQ London Bridge / Borough from just before midnight Jan 31st continuing into Feb1.
This end Jan into Feb very cold and snowy blast matches our 7month ahead and 45d ahead detail forecasts.
<=ARE YOU READY FOR THE REST OF 2019? TODAY NOW IS YOUR LAST CHANCE TO GET UpTo75% OFF DEALS BI Eu Usa - ENDING LATER TODAY Feb1 GET WEATHER SERIOUS! Do-It Do-It PASS THIS ON PLEASE. URGENT
Question Why do so many(me too)like snow? After all it's pretty uncomfortable to walk in a snow squall. Is it we remember subconsciously as kids playing in it? Like the supposed reason for liking toast - remembering family breakfast?
NOTE TO THOSE who feel that their " NOT ENOUGH SNOW" over-rules vast areas of Usa getting polar-vortexed - and so deny the reality of LittleIceAge predictions (NOW coming true). FACT Brit+ire land area is 0.06% of world surface area. It's a very small sample and Sth England is about 0.01%. WISE UP
On 01 Feb 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Any snow stress from the disappointment of Tues is long gone now! Tues was mostly rain but at the tail end the cold really undercut behind, first with icy bits then turning to heavy snow in about 30mins settling fairly fast. It dropped 2C in about as much time. However, once the precipitation rate fell it turned back to rain washing away the little that had accumulated. In the morn a good frost but nothing like the rime this morning. The snow didn't start until a little before 9pm but quickly settled as dew points & wet bulb were below zero. Winds were SSW. It was mostly light however it pepped up about 11 coming in waves with winds ENE (pivot) . 2 inches by midnight & 3 as of 130am. Snow fluffy with some crystalline dendrites sparkling. Didn't get as many pics as I'd hoped as my phone batt drained rapidly in the cold. DPs etc hovering ~0 & waves of light/heavy snow ongoing. Latest forecast shows snow ongoing until 6am which looks about right according to radar. Beautiful
On 31 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Still snowing and sticking in most places now.. hope its there 2moro :-)
On 31 Jan 2019, mike wrote:
wessex mercia border 600'asl
22:10 An inch of snow in the last hour and still falling.
On 31 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-6˚C at 7.30 under a clear sky, followed by yet another sunny winter’s day with the temperature barely reaching 0˚, though pleasantly warm, relatively speaking, in full sun, quite still with a barely perceptible NW’ly breeze, -5˚ at 9.30pm. This is now the 5th frosty and sunny day in a row, what’s going on? Longest cold spell for most years since winter 10/11.
On 31 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Quiet very cold frosty icy start then windy by late morning with cold sleety rain most of the afternoon, not sure the tiny one likes the cold wet as it took her breath away when getting back in the car seat after taking her coat off to strap in with the cold wind blowing on in, the fleece and layers under not enough for the day but chuffed when given her blanket. A Lot of water on the roads so not sure if the heavy snow we have been getting for the last hour will stick. E'ly wind, 2deg feeling like -6 at 9.18pm
On 31 Jan 2019, Istvan ilyes wrote:
Just had 5 minutes of some slight snow flakes here in West Sussex. Now dry and 2deg.C. light breeze from south east. My grass is growing.thinking of mowi g it soon.
On 31 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
OUT_EAST Another chance to compare your forecast machismo with standard models such as GFS which is predicting southwesterly winds over the UK on the 8th Feb with any severe cold well away to northern Russia.
On 31 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
ISTVAN, see Yorky's post, That would be a historical record from 201`2 and not last night. You are OK of course, as you appear to be in a winter-free zone like Rich and Glenn.
On 31 Jan 2019, Istvan ilyes wrote:
The Holbeach temp was in todays Daily Star online.
On 31 Jan 2019, Yorky wrote:
OUTEAST... Your comment regarding Holbeach,,,.....== Residents of Braemar in north-east Scotland were shivering in a temperature of -14.4C (6.1F), the Met Office said – the lowest temperature in the UK since 2012 when it reached -15.6C (3.9F) at Holbeach, Lincolnshire.
On 31 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
OUT-EAST. Are you still predicting -25C for the UK around the 8th Feb?. What was the source of you report of the low temperature in Holbeach last night? Coldest reported on the BBC was -13C at Loch Glascarnoch up here in the Scottish Highlands. All the cold weather, as such, has been from Polar Maritime here, not from a classic easterly causes by high pressure over Norway. Please appreciate that there is no official winter in the UK unless the Polar Vortex is just outside the doors of Rich, Glenn and Istvan
On 31 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
C View/Mark Hall - yet another attempt to give CO2 amazing powers to leap tall buildings in a single bound etc. shame the rest of the LIA covered a much larger period and correlates far better with solar. But of you believe in magical Unicorns, everything can be explained by Unicorns. The paper is here === https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379118307261 ===
I wonder then if all the methane from Roman farts caused the Roman Warm Period?
On 31 Jan 2019, out_east wrote:
+2C yesterday and today, exactly as forecast, before the great PLUNGE from this weekend comes lasting till the 11th in URAL.
Next week we are expecting similar conditions to Chicago, -33C > -35C,so no school for the children.
In the Baltic it's going down to -15C, -17C in Chamonix with up to 1m of snow forecast.
Funny isn't it how you were laughing at me only a week ago when I said it would snow before the end of Jan in the UK, - & you just had -15.6 °C in Holbeach, Lincolnshire.
When the proper winter starts around mid february then it will be real fun.
On 31 Jan 2019, C View wrote:
Here is what really caused the Little Ice Age......really??
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47063973
On 31 Jan 2019, Istvan ilyes wrote:
HI Ron, waiting down here in sunny Sussex for this very long awaited snow. Blue skies and 2deg.C at 1200hrs.thurs. maybe some slight flurries this evening.
On 31 Jan 2019, Mark Hall wrote:
There is an absolutely hilarious article online at the BBC (now known as the Brussels Broadcasting Corporation).
Written by that twerp Jonathan Amos it claimed that the LIA was caused by the European colonisation of the Americas. Boffins and buffoons from University College London reckon that the demise of 50 million indigenous people and the subsequent abandonment of agricultural land caused the cooling. Apparently, fast growing replacement vegetation pulled massive amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere and depleted the Greenhouse Effect. They cite the correlation with ice core samples that show reduced Atmospheric CO2 at this time.
Our friend M Lewis will love this story, but unfortunately the logic is insane. The article completely ignores the oceans and their role as a CO2 sink and confuses cause and effect yet again. Of course atmospheric CO2 will reduce if cooling oceans pull it down, but these phonies never bother with Occam's razor and prefer to peddle Retroactive Causation.
On 31 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
STEPHEN PARKER: BBC mid morning forecast still going for disruptive snow in southern England this evening.
On 31 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Best winter frost a number of Years last night. Looks great like a true air frost as well as ground. Birds were fattening up for a reason Paddy. Feb will start average but trend much colder I would think. Depends on energy coming across Atlantic post the polar vortex though and how that will buckle the jet.
On 31 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Ron - indeed. Did a post on it last night === https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2019/01/30/us-polarvortex-cooling-is-warming/ === -6°C here last night. Snow not due until evening. See what comes as Tues was a let down as it started settling, then turned back to rain although a hard frost followed. Will add more on that later
On 31 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
about -9C here this morning. Wonder if the snow in the south of England predicted for this evening will be the right shade of white for Rich, Glenn and Istvan.
STEPHEN PARKER: Aye models always need a pinch of salt. Weather forecasters do just that, they don't actually make the weather. Things don't always turn out as Piers, David (Yorkshire) or even Out_East predict either, but they( Met Office BBC) will not suffer the commercial fate of Piers if they continue to get it wrong. The rest of us just get bruised pride.
I notice that AGW religionists are blaming global warming for the cold weather in Chicago.
On 31 Jan 2019, stephen parker wrote:
As usual for the Met Office the six hours of heavy snow forecast from 1800 hrs at 90% confidence has morphed into only 50% chance of light snow from midnight. The folly of model watching laid out for all to see.
On 31 Jan 2019, Bill S (N E Wales) wrote:
Cold end to month -5.6 c this morning. Otherwise a mild and drier than average January. Max 12. 2c. Pressure 1045at start to 983mb27th Windiest on 27th 62mph. Rainfall 47.1mm. Snow fall on three days, (2cm) on 30th.
On 30 Jan 2019, Rich wrote:
Beautiful sunny day today. Met office backing away now along with other forecast models, over phantom easterly and or chance of other cold weather in Feb, looks like any impact of SSW this side Atlantic running out of steam and temps in feb back to normal or mild? I suspect that doesn't fit with original forecasts here??
Ron- I can only report what I see and experience in Cambridgeshire along with Glen and Istav I guess, I'm sure you have had snow but your a lot further north and probably a lot higher up! Tomorrow looking more and more like a fizzle ref snow, oh well, always next winter. Ill make a prediction Feb CET variance will be average or milder making winter overall warmer than average, assuming you trust official figures?But that's a hunch based on how things have trended. Jan CET variance looks like will be circa 0.7 or 0.8
On 30 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Incredible in USA. Those sypnotics are quite rare but are going to become more frequent, I would imagine over the next 30 Years or so.
On 30 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
A little speck here n there of snow last night -5 overnight hard frost with a smattering of snow mixed in. Cold but bright day beautiful. Snow reports in north west & south I believe also Wicklow. Yellow warning for snow and ice countrywide till Sat.
-3 feeling like -6 at 10pm Met saying we could get some snow next. 🤪
On 30 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-4˚C at 7.30 and turning out to be another beautifully sunny day with only a light wind that varied between W & SW, max temp 1˚ though in full sun it felt almost warm. Mornings are now at last beginning to be a bit brighter, sunset is now more than an hour later since the solstice. -4˚ again by 9.30pm, lovely starry sky as there are no clouds reflecting the nearby town. Ron, I imagine you must have around -10 or lower tonight? - Yeah, Gerry, I saw that tweet, he’s really giving them the digit :-))
On 30 Jan 2019, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Turned to wet snow by 2200 temp 35F, a bit of settling but with the ground so wet not much. V icy this morning. Gritting washed away by rain. NASA saying solar wind due to increase by tomorrow which could ramp up anything coming. Stand to be corrected, but magnetic field is currently north and I think Piers has said it needs to be south to change our weather. The Great Don's tweet about needing some global warming in the US has upset the warmists - well done that man.
On 30 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
ah, Kim, there you are, just the length of Loch Lomond away from the sub tropical zone inhabited by Istvan, Rich and Glenn--and you're further south too.
On 30 Jan 2019, Kim in Calais wrote:
8/10cm snow here Calais /Somme area, fell on frozen ground and perfectly clear blue skies today (Wed) so expecting a big freeze up tonight, and more snow early Thursday.
On 30 Jan 2019, Tony ex sub wrote:
Disappointing less than a cm here in corby but very cold this morning glad I'm not posting today as the villages will be treacherous. ...so stay safe posties and everyone else who ventures out back to work morrow. ...
On 30 Jan 2019, Brandon wrote:
What an overrated disaster from the presenters on tv that was warnings were given out for days here in the south and it was just rain all night and nothing came of it! Don't know why they have to feel to lie for! It's making me think about this Thursdays forecast "watch out south is going to get snow and a lot of it Thursday" now I don't believe that at all too warm here temperature isn't going to drop that much according to the models guaranteed it will be exactly the same scenario as last night
On 30 Jan 2019, stephen parker wrote:
Just sleety rain here in Rickmansworth ( southern edge of the Chilterns ) . Big snow hit coming Thursday night.
On 30 Jan 2019, Rich wrote:
Had 2cm of snow, turned into 1cm of slush and froze. Currently -1 clear. Winter is hell, our warmist East Anglia trundles on ! Still looked pretty for hour or so.
On 29 Jan 2019, Andy (chiltern hills) wrote:
A few hours of heavy snow this evening
On 29 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-2˚C at 7.30, mighty slippery underfoot, cloudy day with occasional sunny breaks, very light W’ly breeze, max temp 2˚, down to -3˚ by 11pm, open sky.
On 29 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Sleety today, not intense enough to produce snow. If we are in an R3 plus, it has had minimal effect on the UK.
On 29 Jan 2019, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 223ft wrote:
2030 Rain 39F Plenty of snow reports on uksnowmap.
On 29 Jan 2019, Istvan ilyes wrote:
Ron. Also West Sussex. No snow down south so far!
On 29 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
just checked the 7 day temperature projections for Kiev and Moscow. Mainly low positives and single figure negatives. Not especially frigid, even for UK 'softies'.
On 29 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
disruptive snow possible at least twice this week ( already happening in parts of Scotland). Easiest way to avoid it is to visit where Rich and Glenn live as they appear to reside in a permanent winter-free area.
On 29 Jan 2019, east_side wrote:
Who are you kidding?
"Far eastern Europe and western Russia is actually drawing in a southerly flow at present and it's not especially frigid there."
FYI in this part of Europe (SPB/Moscow/Baltic states), it SNOWS WHEN THE WIND COMES FROM THE SOUTH, so wind from Belarus means SNOW!
When it comes from the north it's dry, not especially cold.
When it comes from the east it's mainly dry, sunny and exceptionally cold.
We currently have a lot of snow, and if you don't think it's cold, come and try it for yourself!
I forecast the ice roads to open next week, as the Baltic sea has almost iced over in the last week.
There are currently about 6 sub artic lows circulating in the northern hemisphere + one in the med.
After the biting cold week for Chicago last week and the big anticyclone I predicted over northern siberia forming, don't bank on winter being over any time soon for central Europe.
Now to go get the snow shovel out......not fun!
On 29 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Hi Stephen, not really look at my previous posts about end of January. In all honesty, it's not going to amount to very much at low levels. Maybe 5cm.
On 29 Jan 2019, M Lewis wrote:
Meteogroup (BBC) UK monthly outlook:
The weather looks likely to be unsettled as we move out of January and into February. There will be some rain and perhaps snow, but we still aren't seeing any prolonged cold and snowy weather on the horizon.
On 29 Jan 2019, stephen parker wrote:
RE David yorkshire. Told you last week it was all change from Tuesday, want to know more?
On 28 Jan 2019, Rich wrote:
Ron, crumbs snow, in tropical Cambridge!Best put the sun lounger and barbi back away! Not expecting much, cm or so of slush but more than we have had all extended autumn,sorry winter! Still some talk of colder mid feb but suspiciously keeps slipping back!how long until talk of hose pipe bans?
On 28 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, last night’s watery snow turned into crackling ice by this morning, very slippy, but lovely sunny day for the most part with a max temp of 1˚ in a fresh NW’ly wind that gradually turned more into the W, -1˚ again by 10pm, quite a few stars out.
On 28 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
classic PM winter stuff up here and the forthcoming snow is from an Atlantic low brushing into a pool of this air mass and not a continental airmass coming in from Siberia. Far eastern Europe and western Russia is actually drawing in a southerly flow at present and it's not especially frigid there. Might change in mid Feb. In the meantime Cambridge and Norwich might get some snow
On 28 Jan 2019, Geoff wrote:
Now the GFS12 wants to bring in tropical South Westerlies and a beach towel spring all before the 2nd week of Feb !!!...I maybe having to dig out that Mankini earlier than even I thought
On 28 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Maria - thank you. Hope little one has fun in the snow this year. Their faces at that age are magical. // if Zeke has such faith in plots why does he get up to such showmanship. http://clivebest.com/blog/?p=8808 The long term warming is indeed stunningly clear and it has b****r all to with CO2 which is why it cannot explain early 20thC warming nor indeed the long term rise from the LIA nor does it explain the recent pause which was only broken by a natural ENSO event. Piers' word charlatan comes to mind when those with fingers and livelihoods depend on it are responsible for manipulation of the data. Tsk.
On 27 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
So quite a snowy period in the offing but details likely to come down to the day. // Rich I'd say that's fair. After the early 20thC warmth it took a while for the cooling to be noticeable and there were conflicting signals. You could say it started in early 40s with the series of brutal Jan's but it took well over a decade to become pronounced. Another way to look at it also going back to the bath analogy is the bath is not left to go cool but the hot tap (the sun) its still run, however low solar cycles add less warmth so the top up of heat doesn't last. Looking at the mid 20thC cooling, which was in the face of strong solar, that looks to be ocean cycles (pdo+amo). There appears a lag of ~1 SC which is why when the oceans flipped to warm in mid 70s & low SC20 finished (1976) we had quite brutal N Hemisphere winters (see comms by Paddy+Ron) until ~1987 {i.e. 1 cycle lag). Look at SC23 it was 12.3 yrs long. 12 years after 2006 summer we had 2018. Hmm.
On 27 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
UK Outlook for Monday 11 Feb 2019 to Monday 25 Feb 2019:
Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, but this poses the risk of significant snow should very cold conditions become established.
Updated: 15:00 on Sun 27 Jan 2019 GMT
On 27 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
With a yellow warning for snow in effect for S/SE Tues into Weds this is the latest MetO update = UK Outlook for Friday 1 Feb 2019 to Sunday 10 Feb 2019:
February will begin cold with rain, sleet and snow likely across northern parts, easing and edging slowly southwards. This will be followed by brighter but showery weather through the weekend, with snow showers in places. Thereafter, it will stay unsettled with further spells of rain, sleet and snow, interspersed by brighter and showery interludes. Snow is possible across most parts of the country at times, with the potential for some occasionally disruptive snow, although there is uncertainty in any detail. Winds will be strong with coastal gales, maintaining a significant wind chill and it is likely that there will be widespread frost and the risk of ice. Towards the end of this period there is a low chance that the winds will turn east or northeasterly bringing even colder weather.
On 27 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, strong N’ly wind that had been blowing all night, intermittent showers all day, falling as very wet snow by 6pm, max temp 3˚, still 1˚ at 9pm with the snow melting somewhat. Frost only by tomorrow night according to Beebomet.
On 27 Jan 2019, Istvan ilyes wrote:
The channel low forcecast for Tuesday/Wednesday, is difficult to predict. It may pass into northern France. I expect a little disturbance at best.
On 27 Jan 2019, Brandon wrote:
I'm getting excited now! My hopes are very high for some decent snowfall I live bang in the centre of these warnings for snow Tuesday night into Wednesday I live in Portsmouth on the south coast and I have my fingers crossed we get some snow here massive lover of the stuff!!
On 27 Jan 2019, Bill S ( NE Wales) wrote:
Paddy/Ron, I lived in NE Aberdeenshire in Mintlaw and I too remember the cold that winter. We had -17c with axle deep snow. We were all electric and When we lost power we were forced in to Peterhead to stay at Grans. She had a good coal fire It saved the day ! Unlikely to see that down here but you never know. Cold start to Sunday with a strong to gale force wind coming of the Irish Sea .rainfallovernight giving total since 23rd Dec to 40 mm This is low . Are we in for a wet spring to compensate ?
On 26 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Yellow warning for wind here and country wide I believe, sounds nice and alive out there, after another mildish 8deg see-saw we are back to 6 but feeling a raw -2 with the nnw wind. The one constant weather comment I hear on such a regular basis that I can not believe people don't question it is "ahh you just wouldn't know what to wear for the weather as one minute it is freezing the next warm n vica versa" So yeah I get East-Side aka Out- East
lately in what he is saying and i'm actually thinking that he is an educated person with the added bonus of some common sense too, ( don't mean that to sound condesending btw!-) why not be real and say what you have to say, at least hes not trying to brainwash anyone and I'm betting the word nonsense is pretty tame for him, like others have expressed everyone entitled to their own opinion, (and their own snow stress or snow calm 😋) Ps thanks also Craig for taking time with well interesting info..
On 26 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
PADDY: Aye I remember the 84/85 winter with heavy snow and sub 20C below temps. but after the 1981/82 winter with its record cold, I'd put a mulltifuel stove in and it made a helluva difference. I remember the snow in June as well.
On 26 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, foggy with intermittent drizzle, light S’ly wind which strengthened later in the day and turned into the NW, fog clearing by midday, max temp 7˚, rain free afternoon but cloudy all day, light rain again by evening, 2˚ by 9pm. ==Eastside, I remember the 84/85 winter, pipes froze in many houses because the cold came in from the NE and lasted for weeks, all mechanical digging was impossible and a 40’ eucalyptus in a castle garden nearby with a diameter of more than a metre at ground level perished, in the coastal strip we had -15 to -20˚.
On 26 Jan 2019, Rich wrote:
Craig -I get your point about thermal lag with the oceans, that they hold heat and modify the climate around them (Coasts remain warmer in autumn early winter) . But that applies also the other way in that they act as a break on warming atmosphere as they are a reservoir of cold (as well as absorb huge amounts of CO2), so I guess it depends which side of the fence you sit on (Coasts remain cooler in the summer).
On 26 Jan 2019, Stephen Parker wrote:
Lol Ron. If we do get any depth of snow here in the south east the disruption will be biblical, as will the coverage by the media !
On 26 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
M Lewis - you should hear what Piers has said over the years about the data sets and purveyors of datasets! Berkley Earth is not much better than the other data sets with homogeneous warmth spread where ever it's found (look at the weather in Sth Eng vs Scot v. diff yet that's where they pull from in many cases hundreds of miles away) === https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/08/08/mullers-alabama-temperatures-hopelessly-inaccurate/// Looks like the week ahead is going to be lots of nowcasting and lampost watching over most of the country. All starts on Sunday with Tues & Thurs the next focus. Looks similar to this past week with sleet that can easily be snow and not just a dusting. R period in effect too. Sunspot AR2733 is growing but leaving (SSN 27 / flux 72) but a centre disc earth facing coronal hole looms.
On 26 Jan 2019, M Lewis wrote:
Re: insulting and derogatory comments from out_east about my post. This site is meant to be objective and scientific and I am merely reporting what one research institute in California has found. I'm surprised that Steve D - the moderator of these comments and this site has not acted! If there is no healthy debate and challenge about the science of weather then we remain stuck in the status quo. I'm sure Piers would agree with me.
On 26 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
I spent much of the 2010 winter right under the -20C icon on the BBC weather map, but it's not that kind of winter this year. If GFS is to be believed then between now and the second week of Feb, the UK will be under the influence of Polar Maritime air and will be one of the more wintry parts of Western Europe whilst Eastern Europe and Western Russia will be under relatively mild conditions. What a turn up for the books that would be.
On 25 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Eastside, I agree with you completely that, if it has happened before it will happen again. 2010 had -15 here a couple of nights running and I think it was 1982 that was similar temp wise.1996 around -10. That is in the suburbs without much altitude. However for those temperatures in the UK, we need a good covering of snow followed by several days of bitter temps with clear nights. It is obviously a different story in rural areas especially with altitude.
On 25 Jan 2019, East_side wrote:
Most people appear to have v short memories.
The winter of 1984-5 was one very brutal one.
In Normandie the place froze up solid for a month.
Every night was -28C & not a single diesel car could start.
The Seine froze solid in Rouen (which is tidal btw).
After about 4 weeks of it, we started to ask, 'when is this going to end"?
It finally did in March, but it took weeks for the French to unlock their country roads to allow heavy vehicles to pass on them again.
It may not occur to anyone but the winter of 1941 was quite similar, except it was in that case Hitler's army that froze to death in the north part of Moscow.
The 3rd Reich state weather service forecast no such possibility after the warm 30s.
Just because the late 80s to 90s brought the modern climate optimum, doesn't mean you can't have an extreme winter begin in mid february, with frosts until May. Ignorance is bliss, & the 70s cold.
The 1930s were actually warmer than what we have today, history repeats it
On 25 Jan 2019, Rich wrote:
Perhaps EAST SIDE is talking about the Alps- top of Mt Blanc, or the possibly the POLE.
Is EAST SIDE the alias of James Maddenski?
On 25 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, sun sandwich today: light rain in the morning, sunny from 10.30 to sunset, light rain in the evening. Max temp 7˚, light winds from a generally W’ly direction, 5˚ at 9pm.
On 25 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
I think Eastside is referring to the alps etc not lower ground suburban areas. those hit with heavy snowfall. Certainly some snow stress in here today lol.
On 25 Jan 2019, Stan wrote:
Out east
France Germany and parts of Uk -25c or below
from the 4th ?
You have got to be joking ?
On 25 Jan 2019, out_east wrote:
"long-term warming of the planet was "stunningly clear".
WTF?
Clear as Hitler youth and this stupid little brainwashed Greta Thunberg?
You can only come up with such nonsense after being brainwashed and manipulated.
It was warmer in the medieval warm period, which of course most of the pseudo scientists with their hockey sticks made to disappear.
It was also warmer in the 1930s because the north west passage was open, while the in last 3-4yrs has not been commercially viable.
Have you seen the extent of Antarctic ice?
It's a record.
It was considerably warmer than now, during the Roman period and following that when the Vikings lived in Greenland....green because there was NO ICE, unlike now.
Is your name Harrabin, Mcgrath or do you work for the lying toerags at the public funded British Bs company?
On 25 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
2018 was x warmest. And? Consider thermal lag - a warm bath does not suddenly go cold. AMO still in a warm phase. Oceans have an enormous heat capacity & long cycles we do not fully understand. They also release water vapour which holds heat. UHI - where do we mostly put weather stations? Close to us with lots of concrete and other surfaces to retain and radiate heat. Hence why snow in town lasts a day but here days. Also has a handy habit of keeping night minima up which is most of the increase we've seen for CET. The warming we have seen CO2 lags behind temperature. Not to forget the adjustments for the fall in temps ~1940-1976, or that the rise in temps before in the early 20thC pretty much matches the recent rise ===https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2019/01/25/early-20th-century-global-warming/=== we go up and down but the trend is there to see.
On 25 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
What I see from the models is this mild blip being replaced by the cold again and from around the 30th - just 5 days away - a great deal of scatter. All this usually means is that Atlantic Air is close by. Without it we don't get much snow unless we have a raging easterly. What I also see is snow this weekend followed by Arctic cold building in Norway which I use as a bellwether (see Yr.No) Until recently any cold there was fleeting. That means a block is forming and it's not going to budge all that fast. On top of that models are going to be volatile because the SSW is only just starting to land. Its quite easy to see short term changes at hand and snow opportunities could land anywhere in the next week with some places getting a real pasting // Snow 🌨 finally disappear mid morn today. Last night had quite a thick flowing fog & a solid frost. About 2.25 days or so with 50% snow cover, however contrast with in town quite stark.
On 25 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
OUT_EAST: I daresay GFS and NMO don't care about you either, but perchance an excellent opportunity to compare your predictions with theirs has arisen. The latest run of GFS (14.23 hrs Jan 25) for 1-4th Feb shows mild air coming up from the south over much of central and eastern Europe with any colder air coming from the west or north-west as returning Polar Maritime air flowing over the Britain--just about the opposite of what you are saying. GFS is of course very fickle, but that's how it stands at the moment
On 25 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Feb 2019 to Saturday 23 Feb 2019:
Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, although the incursion of these introduce a significant risk of snow should very cold conditions become established.
Updated: 01:42 on Fri 25 Jan 2019 GMT
On 25 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 Jan 2019 to Friday 8 Feb 2019:
Sunshine and wintry showers on Wednesday, with these becoming more confined to eastern and perhaps southern areas. Otherwise, some sunshine around, before cloud and outbreaks of rain and hill snow will move into the west by the end of Wednesday. This will move east into Thursday, maintaining this changeable and at times unsettled and predominantly cold spell of weather. Snow is likely to lower levels at times, perhaps more so than during the cold weather so far as low pressure systems take a more southerly track towards Biscay, with overnight frost and ice remaining a risk too. There is still a small chance that even colder conditions may develop during early February with easterly or northeasterly winds dominating, bringing an increased possibility of disruptive snow.
On 25 Jan 2019, M Lewis wrote:
The Earth was slightly colder last year (2018)than the previous few years - but still the fourth-warmest recorded, according to new research by one climate research group - California's Berkeley Earth.
Last year's average was 14.96C (58.93F).
That is 0.77C (1.39F) warmer than the average from 1951 to 1980 and about 2.09F (1.16C) warmer than pre-industrial times.
Berkeley Earth's Zeke Hausfather said the dip last year was extremely unlikely to be a cooling trend and the long-term warming of the planet was "stunningly clear".
On 25 Jan 2019, Rich wrote:
I keep looking around OUT EAST in Western and Central Europe and city's temps Paris, Berlin, Warsaw all seem to show average temps pretty much on Beeb 14 day according to cities own av temp data (have done for weeks previous as well). No sign of bitter east weather, just average. Most curious.
UK CET Jan 2019 anomaly now at +1 deg, prob end up about there given forecast next several days. MO still about risk /possibility at least of very cold in mid Feb- having moved back from early Feb, having moved back before from late Jan. or was it Mid Jan? Beeb monthly backing away to more average conditions which is probably more realistic currently .Overall ALL models generally seem to be still struggling to get a grip on the forecast..
On 25 Jan 2019, out_east wrote:
I don't care about GFS or Norwegian met.
Do you read this?
"Earth is inside a stream of solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal hole. Credit: SDO/AIA"
"A stream of high-speed solar wind is buffeting Earth's magnetic field. Last night, it produced a G1-class geomagnetic storm and a spray of pink auroras over Tromsø, Norway".
Met services routinely ignore this.
First you get a forbush decrease, the remnants of which I will no doubt be able to measure tomorrow on my flight with my Geiger - Muller counter.
I'm very curious to compare & see the drop in gamma radiation, because on my last flight,(with v low solar wind) the same route it was astonishly high.
The high latitude regions with their more vertical and diminished magnetic fields are remarkably sensitive to magnetic disturbances, ..
..and hey....suprise suprise this is where the anticyclonic tendencies in artic winter with zero sunlight are most important.
On 25 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
OUT_EAST standard models here (eg Norwegian Met Office and GFS) not agreeing with your diagnosis and indeed now backing off ( by 10 degrees) cold severity predicted as recently as last night for next Tues-Thursday and no sign of a persistent cold easterly over the UK.
On 25 Jan 2019, out_east wrote:
SPOT ON stephen parker.
I'm out of here, just had a night at -7C.
North of Frankfurt it was below -15C.
Looking at the next monday our EST/FINLAND forecast is -25>-30C, then rising through to +1C 26-31st.
Same gradients for Moscow, SPB & Ural, so a 30C yoyo each week.
What is interesting is the following vicious collapse around the 8th FEB. Only proper cold winters do this,- this year happening in cold waves, with warmer periods between.
The phenomenon is consistent with the warmer polar air displacing off over E Siberia, anticyclones forming over Scandinavia & Russia, & an extreme cold stratosphere intermittently connecting with the continental USA.
Around 4th the easterly airflow really starts up, from Siberia leading to temps in France & Germany & to some extent in the UK of -25C & below.
For this to happen, you need low pressure over France, & high pressure over the extreme north.
This appears the case on 1st & 8th Feb.
On 24 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-4˚C at 7.30, SW’ly breeze, another sunny day and although it felt cold, it didn’t take long to work up a sweat in the sunshine. Max temp 2˚, clouding over after 4pm and not feeling so cold anymore, 0˚ at 10pm with very light snow falling, though MO announce rain, warm front passing eastwards.
On 24 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
STEPHEN & DAVID Even the warmist Norwegian weather service would agree, with low termperatures forecast for my area from Monday 28th Jan to 3rd Feb with predictions of -10 to -16 C on 30th Jan Blair Atholl/ Braemar.
On 24 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
You sound bullish about that Stephen. I would agree should in theory be more wintry though, as per jet stream shift and more unsettled, next week.
On 24 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
OUT_EAST: please get a grip on reality and remember that the only measure of climate and weather is what is happening in the south east corner of England. Up here in Ghilliejockland we've been having double figure frosts and road closures due to snow. Less cold weather coming in next couple of days, but Polar Maritime air returning over the weekend. Next Tue/Wed, GFS is showing low pressure systems tracking along La Manche with the northern edge skirting along the south of England into the colder air. If this happens there is a good chance of snow, but no doubt it will miss Cambridge.
On 24 Jan 2019, out_east wrote:
This morning most of France is in the grip of proper winter.
Traffic in areas around Lille right down to northern Paris region were almost at standstill most of the day, -with the snowfall freezing solid overnight.
A power cut for 6hrs last night brought the room temperature down to 1C, while the wind went round from southerly to northerly to north east, bringing freezing air.
Hypothermia kills, summer heat doesn't.
A snowstorm hit the pyrenees with 1m of fresh snow & a mediterranean storm brought huge snowfall to Corsica.
The next wave of cold will be much colder, with successive waves of cold and large snowfalls, the first one within the next 5-6 days, then another more extreme cold around 8-9th february,
How the UK will be affected?
Do we care?
That island is surrounded by warmer water.
The continent has a more extreme climate and that is what kills people.
On 24 Jan 2019, stephen parker wrote:
Winter lovers will get their wish from next Tuesday, lasting at least two weeks, maybe longer. North/ NE winds will sweep across the country, bringing snow and snow showers even to lower levels.
On 23 Jan 2019, Rich wrote:
-2 currently, was 0 deg this morning, no snow near Cambridge. Current Beeb suggests temp next 2 weeks between 4 to 6 deg, MO keeps talking about higher risk in Feb of cold/snow but have been saying this on rolling basis since Dec, also not shown in BeeB forecast. Similar for most other weather models Ive seen. CET anomaly for Dec was 2.2deg, Jan running at 1.29 deg as of yesterday. The last year with a negative CET anomaly was 2010 and winter was 2013, hence chaps scepticism of impending forecasts of cold though I acknowledge impact sun has on climate historically. So for all extremes listed, hot and cold records the recent CET trend to me at any rate suggests otherwise. When would you expect colder impact to show up in CET numbers?
On 23 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-3˚C at 7.30, light W’ly breeze, amazingly sunny day with lots of blue sky, ground frost hardly shifting, max temp 2˚, down to -2˚ by 9pm. As for snow, none here, but our local mountain pass, Cairn o’ Mount, the old drovers’ road, has had its snow gates closed for the last few days.
On 23 Jan 2019, Sou'wester wrote:
There was a snow fall all over Dartmoor again last night. Meanwhile, down closer to sea level, I was awakened in the early hours by sudden hail. Very chilly today, but the sea is calm, and there is little wind, so I don't expect much change soon.
On 23 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Rich - Nothing wrong with a different opinion, as long as it is backed up with meat on the bones. No snow for my locality yet. Just missed us but that's not unusual from a NW wind. Higher ground shields us sometimes and it's the nature of showers to be hit and miss. Very cold today and icy. Next week looks like jet digs a bit further South, so could get more widespread wintry weather.
On 23 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
[Jun 18] Very warm and dry; in some areas the warmest and driest on record... A CET of 16.1 makes June equal with 2003 but behind 1950 (16.2), 1940 and 1970 (16.4) and well behind 1976 (17.0). East coasts were often cooler due to onshore winds and the position of the anticyclone....// Forgot to add Thursday 28 February 2018 – coldest since 1785 + 1st March lowest mean temperature for that day since 1785 & coldest March day (lowest maximum) since 1878 + Coldest 18th March since 1853 // Lots I've missed out like April 12 etc but the point is these are extremes *on either end of cold/warm/dry/wet* we used to see & are caused by a Meridional jetstream which is an LIA circulation pattern. Anyone notice where the jetstream which is blowing over us today ends up? Africa. Yeah that's pretty standard stuff. And we can dismiss it because its been a little too east to have affected us until this week. Because muh snow stress 😑
On 23 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
[May 17] overall was very warm; nationally the second warmest May since 1910 (after 2008) [Jun 17] In the north of Britain it was rather cool, very wet, and rather dull; in the south and east it was very warm, quite dry, and quite sunny. Overall the CET was 16.0C, making it the warmest June in the series since 1976 - but bear in mind that this average hides the regional variation. [Mar 18] a cold month, but not as cold as 2013. There was a very cold start to the month as the Beast from the East lingers in the north and Storm Emma hit the cold air in the southwest. There was deep drifting of snow, with roads closed, and communities cut off. The 1st was the coldest spring day on record, with a maximum of just -4.7C at Tredegar, Blaenau Gwent, Wales... [May 18] A very warm month across the country, being the equal second warmest on record. The mean maximum temperature for the UK as a whole was the highest on record (from 1910)...
On 23 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
... and a UK mean of 7.9, easily (by 1.6C) warmer than any previous Dec on record.[15-16] Overall a very mild winter. The winter of 2015-16 just failed to beat the winter of 1868-69 to become the mildest on record (since 1659). [Sep 16]. An extraordinary month. Overall very warm, with a CET of 14.6, making it the second equal warmest Sep from 1910... 34.4C was recorded at Gravesend on Tuesday 13th, a real record breaker, in many ways: it is the hottest day of the year; it is remarkably late (you have to go back to 1926 for one later); it is the first time 90F (32.3) is exceeded in September since 1949; it was the first time since 1962 that the warmest day of the year in Britain was in September; and it was the hottest September day since 1911. . [Dec 16] Overall very mild, the eighth mildest since 1910. [17]
The warmest spring on record. [Mar 17] With a provisional CET of 8.8, you have to go back to 1957 (9.2) for one warmer, and it was the third warmest since 1900
On 22 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
From Trevor Harley's site: "December 2010 is the coldest... since 1890 and the first sub-zero average month since 1986. Winter 2009-10 is the 8th coldest since 1900. [colder in NI + Scot than 1962-3]...[Mar 13] was the coldest month of the "winter". The coldest spring since at least 1962 and possibly 1891, depending on which norms one takes...on the CET series, at 2.7C the coldest since 1883. (Although depending which measures you take exactly for the CET series, just since 1962 or 1892.) It was the first time March was the coldest month of the "winter" (defined meteorologically as DJF) since 1937.... July 2013 the warmest since 2006, and the sixth hottest ever, with only 1921, 1976, 1983, and 2006 having been warmer....[Dec-Feb 2014] wettest winter on record [tho from Nov 1929 may be wetter - see Paul Homewood]... [Dec 15] An exceptionally mild month - phenomenally so, with a CET of 9.7, a phenomenally high figure, higher than most Novembers and all Marches...
On 22 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Today was not standard winter fare. As the rain came in temps dropped 3C in 1hr for a sleety snowy mix that struggled to settle, except coatings in heavier moments with fat 50p sized flakes (dew points hovered around freezing perfect for those fat flakes - by contrast Feb 12 had needle snow due to dry cold air & Feb+Mar 18 was also small but perfect dendrites). As night fell the sleety mix stayed solidly as snow and accumulated giving just under an inch of wet snow that froze solid within an hour or so under clearer skies. A slight freezing for formed & its lethal underfoot. You don't get this in Nov unless in exceptional circumstances such as Nov 2010. Easy in Jan tho. This weekends highs were 8+10C now 7+8 so a brief lick of warmth before winter returns although the milder air is confined by looks of it to Sth. Models are all over the place with lots of changes at short timescales. Main agreement is the Azores+Russian high move & a Euro trough over us.
On 22 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Fred - That's a very interesting point you bring up. Last time was early 2013? And what followed the SSW that year? Joe B pointed it out. Means we have a good pool of cold to tap into and could be interesting going forward. It's why I do not buy that Arctic amplification excuse for cold winters as it doesn't explain past cold winters. Another mechanism* is at work & we are seeing a symptom not a cause. (*Chefio discussed lunar flushing in the past). // The long touted SSW, despite starting last year, has only just started impacting upon the troposphere where we get our weather. That is a really long lead in time & unprecedented (within the scope that SSW are not long studied due to data deficiencies). The impacts could last a loooong time down here at surface level. The cold has also been building to our east. In 1962-3 the snow reached the Alps before striking the BI. It's going to be a nasty cold winter into spring for much of Europe.
On 22 Jan 2019, Andy (Chiltern Hills) wrote:
Heavy snow for a few hours late afternoon/ early evening,
On 22 Jan 2019, Rich wrote:
Not much happening here in Cambridgeshire yet, had a snow shower , didn't settle n that's about it. Hope that a few flakes, a bit of frost and shutting the snake pass doesn't pass as a severe winter and justification chaps? Nothing that I wouldn't expect in November. Fingers crossed for some real winter than in next few weeks. Oh by the way, I'm not a Troll and neither is anybody else, just somebody who at times has a different opinion/experience - which I think is allowed?
On 22 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, damp and icy at the same time from the overnight rain, but then opening out to a beautiful sunny day with a max temp of 2˚ in a light W’ly wind, down to -2˚ by 10pm.
On 22 Jan 2019, Kim in Calais wrote:
Ron Greer 😅 I will just have to put on another yellow jacket and a traffic cone hat!🖒
On 22 Jan 2019, Tony ex sub wrote:
Thanks David I'll look at that when I've time. ......snowing heavy now at 6pm corby .......I just looked a met fcast and ive got sun with some cloud 11 pm can't wait for that .....lol
On 22 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
RICH, GLENN and STAN: just watched the BBC weather forecast just before 1800 hrs going on about heavy snow showers in the South East of England. Are you still in the hot box area that misses out?
On 22 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:
https://amz.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2019_01/image.png.59ace6d2b0799b14fec79a6c9af92665.png
Breaking news. The arctic is now officially below average. Widespread NH cold ahead and indeed globally it doesn’t look that toasty does it. I suspect Feb will be interesting and March as Spring? Forget it.
Piers? A significant moment? The lag of Rl Nini Ocean now melted away.....is this the kick start?
14 days spotless sun on the run.....this could be a record low sunspot year
On 22 Jan 2019, Sou'wester wrote:
Snow covered Dartmoor last night, about an inch it seems.. Glad that the precipitation has not reached us down by the Devon & Cornwall seafronts, because we tend to get sneet when it does. Yes, that awful stuff - snow turning into sleet when it hits the salty gusts from off the Atlantic. Brings with it a toll of a lot of black ice. I sleep easy, though, as I never suffer from snow stress. But 40F in my office this morning and yesterday upon arrival. - dreading a deterioration in temperature.
On 22 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
5 deg with a real feel of -2 today just because it is not snowing here does not mean its warm n toasty it is most def. January and feelin parky.. hardly summer 🙈
On 22 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Ron - Yes I'm thinking of emigrating to the South East. Tropical weather, nice beaches. No winter hazards in future Years. Sounds good. 😂😂
On 22 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
KIM in Calais: There you are, bitterly cold just across the water from the searing heat box of South East England. What a shame.
On 22 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
I see a 'broken off' part of the polar vortex has affected Quebec with lows down to -40C.
On 22 Jan 2019, Stan wrote:
Ron. Lol. Nee picknick but a breeze compared to late 80’s , 90’s.
Out east. Let me know when UK is at a standstill and blanketed in snow and i’ll eat my words with a chunk of humble pie !
On 22 Jan 2019, out_east wrote:
Right on time as predicted (since 11th Jan)
1m of snow in next 24hrs in Pyrenees, max avalanche warning 5/5 tomorrow.
Most of central France today will be out, snow from Lille to the mediterranean.
Chaos around Paris, lorries forbidden N118.
Today -24.4C in central Estonia.
-7 in Strasbourg this morning.
Baltic ice chart shows possibility of opening the ice roads in next 2 weeks.
Neva now frozen, -17C in SPB Russia-going down to -26C next week, below -30C for Ural, so schools close.
Weathermap shows the building of high pressure across central Europe for the next week so the snow will be followed by bitter cold nights.
PROPER WINTER, needs urgent measures to get people living in the street into shelter.
>Spare a thought for the most vulnerable everyone!<
This is the first relatively "mild" wave.
Next one is going to be a lot stronger, starting next week
On 21 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
-10 C and lower forecast for us this week by the warmest Beeb with polar maritime air reaching the isolated remote South East with snow fall. Less cold Thur/Friday then colder again from Sunday with the Jetstream plunging well below the UK, thereafter cold weather digging in. Rich and Glenn seem to have their own models apparently run by 'Trollcast Weather Services'
On 21 Jan 2019, AndyB 45d sub wrote:
Glen and Rich I wish you were both right, but alas with us entering a Super Grand Solar Minimum with all 4 magnetic areas on the sun going out of phase that has never happened before + the earth moving another million miles from the sun during NH winters by 2024 there will be very little grown in the UK by then only a few crops in the summer and by 2028 there will be a world wide famine with mass starvations.
On 21 Jan 2019, Rich wrote:
Hello Glen
It does look that way! The only way we seem to be able to get a cold snowy spell depends on a SSW and the alignment of several other factors including low solar output - even then we cant seem to muster more than a few flakes. This should have been a good year in theory. We did manage a cold week last winter, but these seem to be the exception. Bouts of cold weather was the norm (not every year to be fair but most) with snow on the ground twice as likely in the 60s, 70s 80s etc (in a northerner so remember well, down south now but parents till up North), Now everybody gets excited about wintry showers.Perhaps the warmer more energetic Atlantic is preventing colder outbreaks affecting the UK. No sign of LIA to date, Quite the opposite, perhaps postponed more Jam tomorrow. Still nothing significant showing in next 2 weeks and polar vortex reforming.
On 21 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Hi Tony, could be many factors but SST anomalies are arguably a factor in the waves of energy and how they effect the weather over northern Europe. Not my forte but here is a link, I saved a while back.https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00104.1
On 21 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, clear until about 9.30 when cloud started moving in from the W, quite frosty with the ground staying hard for most of the day even though temps rose to a max of 3˚, still that at 9pm with a bit of light rain courtesy of the passing cold front, SW’ly wind all day and feeling raw in the high humidity. Happy that I managed to see and photograph the lunar eclipse, always an amazing spectacle, though the red of the ‘blood moon’ could only be seen with binoculars because it was still quite high in the sky.
On 21 Jan 2019, Glenn wrote:
So it looks like I was right after all, no snow this winter for southern Britain. The days where snow happens in southern Britain are now long gone. It turns out that we have been lied to about the LIA meaning snowy winters for southern Britain. When the warmer years of the 90s had snowier winters. The LIA theory is collapsing.
On 21 Jan 2019, Kim in Calais wrote:
Bitterlycold here for the past 2 weeks, but we all knew it would get here eventually, Its now just a question of how much? logs and coal stocked up as is the freezer and pantry.also double bubble wrap on the windows, We are grateful that it has held off this long and hope that it's short and sweet , mainly because of the extra fuel costs and the problems for the old and poor.Keep up with your vit C and D 3 folks.see you on the other side 😎
On 21 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
STAN: aye it must have been a summer breeze driving through Austria, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Norway with that wee smattering of snow showers. Meteobeeb and GFS going for briefly less cold Thur/Friday then a cold weekend and for a colder period right through to early February. When reality does not fit the models, is it reality that got it wrong?
On 21 Jan 2019, Tony ex sub wrote:
Thanks for the reply David any ideas why it always seems to shift further east ?????....I know piers has had trouble with that situation .....
On 21 Jan 2019, Istvan ilyes wrote:
Crawley Wesy sussex
Fog Am. Now sun, and gentle warming.Spring is in the air.still waiting for the Arctic freeze and the snow forecast by others. The winter of 1947 started about now, wonder if? No i don,t thinkso. The National press is full the impending winter. Any offers?
On 21 Jan 2019, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
Winter all over by 21 January? My peak weekly gas use in 2018 came in the week ending 3 April!! Plenty of time for cold yet.Car thermometer read -7C this morning.
On 21 Jan 2019, Geoff wrote:
Seems that by the time any 'Beast From The East' arrives it will already be late July...and I'll have long slipped into my lime-green Mankini.
On 21 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Yeah well cloud n fog came along and then there was only hazy glimpses, was fun for a Monday morning :-) 0 deg feelin like -3 hard frost at 9.55 a.m
On 21 Jan 2019, out_east wrote:
"this is one of the mildest winters i can recall in the last 23 years. No chance of a covering of snow in south east uk"
Not only is this total nonsense, but I just love it when people are forced to eat their words.
Tomorrow is our first day at -22C. (EST)
People in France still remember February 2011.
There will be usual ringing of hands and rubbish from the politicians when they find the UK completely at a standstill.
hey but isn't that quaint?
The only reason why Britain never could become a dictatorship is because of the totally bungling incompetence & gross inefficiency of the bureaucracy.
For every bad thing there can be a ray of light! Haha!
On 21 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Watching the eclipse whilst all outside is frozen -2 /-3 atm, during penumbral was totally clear, a small bit of cloud since we entered partial not enough to ruin view just hope get to see max 🤓 Happy moon watching!
On 20 Jan 2019, Stan wrote:
I drive allover uk and northern europe and this is one of the mildest winters i can recall in the last 23 years. No chance of a covering of snow in south east uk never mind a foot
On 20 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Hi Tony - didn't realise much had changed until just now ( been busy) Some might get a covering midweek but it was beyond that I was expecting more widespread wintry weather, next weekend and beyond. I'm a little old school and don't use the models as such, apart from one's To check jet stream movements and Fax charts. That tied in with what pros where saying about later this week, seemed to indicate the UK.was going to get very cold in general. However, it does seem to be shifting east again. Seems like high pressure has failed to materialise to our north/west. Still time for changes tho. Sun very quite and lunar events may shift things again.
On 20 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, clearing sky, though cloudy in the NW to begin with - I’m hoping that tomorrow morning that portion of the sky will be cloud free so that we can see the total lunar eclipse, the middle of which happens around 5am - a bit of rain around 11, max temp 2˚, raw W’ly wind, sunny morning but cloudy afternoon, 0˚ by 10pm.
On 20 Jan 2019, Tony ex sub wrote:
Once again the forecast switches from major winter snow and ice all uk to now 8 degrees next weekend .....what has changed ?does anyone really have any idea what is happening ...over to you experts David -Craig ....I'm bemused to it all
On 20 Jan 2019, Rich wrote:
Finally got a proper forecast this morning -3 in Cambs, first one of 2018/19 winter. Snow risk seems to be dropping or being kicked even further down the road again (can we have a beast from the east in June?) Curious as to what has gone against the forecasts that have been floating around? Keep hoping for snow but as others have said, I'm a realist too. A comment was made the other week about the big picture. While heavy snow did hit part of the Alps,large portions are well below their usual depths. Suspect if spread out would be an average season to date, nothing out of ordinary other than the variance between those that have and those that have not. Despite the heavy snow (in the mountains) much of western Europe has from what I can see had a mildish winter to date.
On 19 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, feeling clammy & damp under a cloudy sky, the slightest of W’ly breeze, all our snow gone. We had to go up north today; as soon as we hit Huntly the sky became clear as a bell and the sun illuminated the snowy hills of the North, the roads were clear but snow depth was around 2-3 inches, we went as far as Knockando. Max temp 3˚ and as soon as we got to north of Aberdeen we were back in the murk, just a glimpse of the sun on the western horizon as the sun went down, 1˚ at 9pm. == Maria, I found the hairy snow shovel among the unwaxed lemons in the supermarket!
On 19 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Drizzly showers this morning seemed a little milder again, cooler tonight mostly clear 6 deg feeling like 4 at 7.12pm
On 19 Jan 2019, Istvan ilyes wrote:
Thanks RON. the worm hasn,t turned yet. Still a chance of warmer weather heading our way. Gloom down here in the Southeast..
Waiting for that easterly. I am a snow lover, but a realist.
On 19 Jan 2019, Rich wrote:
Hello Ron
I hope I'm wrong as I'm a snow pig. However the fat lady hasn't sung yet, started warming up yes but as before seems to have developed a cough with models backing off very cold settling on cold - no East severe cold snow (sorry East). Not seeing much snow in forecast in East Anglia, East Mids - more of the Jam tomorrow still. Guess we will see but Id say we are still on course for average winter at best and no snow fest 1981 style. or 2010.
On 19 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID: Well done and commiserations to Glenn, Istvan and Rich.
On 19 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Quick question Paddy we were wondering how did you get a hairy snow shovel ? No wonder you have snow stress 🤣
On 19 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Gees No more milk talk the tiny one with 4.5 teeth will hear you 😅 Frosty mornings followed by sleety evenings and the only snow i'm seeing is fuzzy dots from 9 hrs sleep in 48 !-) Irish version of snow here this eve. cold rain! Occasional sleety showers 6 deg at 11pm feeling like 4. So will it snow here? the suspense is too much I couldn't sleep if I could, skies looking possibly clear for early Monday moon watching 🤓
On 18 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-3˚C at 7.30, crackling snow underfoot and cloudy overhead with a cold S’ly wind, temps rising fairly quickly to a max of 3˚, sun breaking through the clouds form time to time, rain by 8pm with the thin layer of winter wonderland melting away, 2˚ by 10pm and still raining. == David (Yorks): no, not dairy farmer but tree farmer (ret. as of this year as our son takes over) but I’m very proud to be part of coining new terms, as in “milking snow stress”, that’s up a level :-)
On 18 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Thanks Craig (takes a bow)🎯❄️❄️❄️
On 18 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
The models have been doing a real yoyo but do seem now to have some cohesion in an upcoming cold period which looks to last into the next couple of weeks at least, if not beyond. This is clearly seen in the MetO update copied below. You'll notice gone are the mild intrusions for the south as the cold air looks to entrench. As a consequence snow is creeping more & more into the forecasts, however the detail is quite vague as is expected - snow events could pop up at very short notice and R periods will need watching. The Atlantic looks very much to be our friend and copious snow somewhere is always possible as is a Jan 1881 type scenario. If this lasts into March we have the prospect of cold causing economic problems (Joe B has flagged this for a while) along with Brexit (or BiNO as Piers terms it on the main page). Those milking snow stress may feel otherwise quite soon. // First dusting of snow of the season yesterday. Settled& froze on the spot lasting until midday. Nice!
On 18 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
UK Outlook for Saturday 2 Feb 2019 to Saturday 16 Feb 2019:
The cold weather will continue as we head through the first half of February. There is a greater risk of seeing snow at lower levels as well as on the hills. Some drier and brighter periods are possible in the northwest, but in the south there is a chance of weather fronts approaching which bring a risk of rain, sleet and perhaps significant snow at times.
Updated: 14:38 on Fri 18 Jan 2019 GMT
On 18 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
UK Outlook for Wednesday 23 Jan 2019 to Friday 1 Feb 2019:
The latter half of next week looks to stay cold or very cold, with frosts likely most nights. There may be cloud, rain and hill snow perhaps on Wednesday or Thursday, but thereafter turning brighter with showers. These will feed in from eastern coasts, but are likely to bring sleet or snow for some. There is a small chance of a weather system approaching the northwest over the weekend, which could bring significant amounts of snow on meeting the cold air. However, this is still very uncertain and it is best to stay up to date with the latest forecast. It will stay cold until the end of January with spells of rain, sleet and snow at times. However, some drier and brighter interludes are still likely, with overnight frost.
On 18 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Paddy, are you actually a dairy farmer because you are milking this.
On 17 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, 1cm of snow, driving down to Dundee in brilliant sunshine in the morning, bone dry and no snow there, max temp 3˚, cloudier afternoon and still snowy on our little hill when we returned, icy now at 9.30pm with -1˚. Only the other day I found a live ladybird in the corn salad when washing it; that’s when I still had snow stress, as of today symptoms are somewhat relieved but not sufficient to stop me from feeding the birds and waxing my snow shovel :-) (Sorry, had to give it another outing, I’ll stop when I get banned)
On 17 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Glenn have you had any snow yet?
when is the next R4/R5 period guys? That won't be giving away too much. Snow just keeps piling up in some regions of Europe.
On 17 Jan 2019, BillS (N E Wales) wrote:
Gerry your question re magnetic fields etc. I asked similar to this on earlier post (see 14th dec ) but no response as yetfrom Piers.
On 17 Jan 2019, Gerry 45d 223ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
QUESTION: Is the rapidly changing magnetic field related to solar minimum / LIA? The World Magnetic Model is updated every 5yrs but an emergency update is being prepared after only 3yrs. H/T spaceweather. Snow flurries and sleet this morning in v small amounts. Lots of reports on uksnow.
On 17 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
covering of snow here this morning which came from the north and not from the warm southwesterlies as predicted by Istvan Ilyes and whatever models he's using. Other standard models still going for various PM outbreaks with 'Atlantic slugs bumping into them with the possibilities of snow as that happens.
On 17 Jan 2019, stephen parker wrote:
Some models seeing much colder weather next week, so Rich you may get your easterlies and snow, GFS looks chilly.
On 16 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Paddy only just seen your comment lol. Honestly gone mad this last few days.
On 16 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, light rain until 9, followed by a sunny morning, we got quite warm putting up a fence, max temp 6˚, more cloud again in the afternoon, rain in the evening mixed in with sleet leaving a little white on the ground here and there, 0˚ at 10pm.
On 16 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
We have had rain wind sun rinse n repeat and now after a clear starry start this eve we have rain n a little windy and brrr cold 4 deg feels like colder. Met now talking snow in the picture, brrreally .. ps Paddy 😂
On 16 Jan 2019, Rich wrote:
Might as well come to the UK East, pretty un-eventful this winter to date and next few weeks, despite dire warnings since end of December!
On 16 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Yes out east, some extremes further east than UK. I knew this winter would be the big one. USA too.
On 16 Jan 2019, out_east wrote:
Don't say you weren't warned.
Every single temperature index I use is veering off into extreme cold for next week.
I am reading very heavy snow in the RHONE valley, temps down to -25C in the alps, a sudden drop of -30C in ONE day for Ural, a drop of -15C in one day for St Petersburg region, and very heavy snow this week in the Baltic.
A short period of warming after it follows, then back DOWN again for the end of Jan.
That can mean only one thing,- establishment of a Siberian airstream from next week over most of continental Europe.
I'm out of here.
Get off to somewhere else to stay in the warm, and where transport doesn't come to a standstill !
On 16 Jan 2019, Istvan ilyes wrote:
Isyvan Ilyes West Sussex
Its called anti-cyclonic gloom. We have had an armfull thankyou.
Spring is fast approaching. Warmer temps on way. Constant southwesterlies, no sign of the opposite.
On 16 Jan 2019, Mark Hall wrote:
It is not the trend, or even the beginning of a trend, but it might be the end of the warmist beginners. Respect Craig.
The main threat to the UK is agricultural. Late springs will wreak havoc if my two apple trees are anything to go by. Just five fruits harvested after the Beast in March.
Sudden atmospheric compression events wrecking crops in the summers are in the mix too.
Climate wise we are back to the late fifties. Low inflation, low commodity prices, low interest rates, low bond yields, low unemployment. Awaiting the catapult to a 1980 of highs in all of the above metrics. A creeping deterioration entirely related to a cooling climate.
On 15 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
The MetO did a livestream earlier today discussing the cold and the possibility of disruptive cold. Best bit for me is the total non mention of climate change when answering a question on extremes over the past year. Nice to get a break from politics ===
https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2019/01/15/watch-uk-cold-weather-on-the-way-but-what-about-snow/ === the stuck blocked pattern continues to move and where it ends next could easily be where we stay for the rest of winter. Being on the edge of a warm ocean and a cold continent, there's plenty of ingredients over the next few weeks to blend a salve for any lingering snow stress - although there are no guarantees. // Paddy/Ron/CView - read a long whilst back an old Scottish saying [if there were still] buds/blooms(?) in January, lock up your granary. Trying to pin it down for when it originated (could be LIA based?) & exact wording. Sounds good advice! Any ideas?
On 15 Jan 2019, Rich wrote:
Nothing really significant showing up on any models/forecasts, cold yet but not significantly through into Feb. Think East optimistic with talk of cold and snow for UK- looks like will stay in the East. Stick to my comment the other day in that at best Winter will end up average. Given well above average temps to date that might be optimistic . Snow drops out and flower heads of Narcissi fully formed, garden pretty firm in Cambridgeshire. Next summer could be interesting if on dry side again, early hose pipe bans.
On 15 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, seesaw again to very mild and cloudy with a SW’ly wind which got a bit stronger in the afternoon, max temp 9˚, a couple of sunny hours in the afternoon, 6˚ at 9.30pm. David (Yorkshire), feeling compelled to put out bird seed could be a sign of early onset snow stress :-) (Not sure how long I can milk this one)
On 15 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Half way through month and now it's turning colder. Definitely a chill in the air tonight. Can't keep up with putting bird seed out last few days, is it a sign?
On 15 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
A continuation of drizzly cloudy mirky 7 deg at 12.03 a.m ( When you start typing and it all comes out in Capitals and then you change it back to lower case and all seems tranquil again!-) Poss. Another symptom of snow stress? NO point asking Paddy hes all chill right now, as usual 😁 Well the headlines are mentioning words like Possibility Heavy Snow & Disruption here.. Worse headlines for England so Out East is gonna send you all a new hat :)
On 14 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, about a millimetre of snow on the car, should I worry (inverse snow stress)? Quite a sunny morning with a light W’ly wind, more cloud in the afternoon, temp rising to 3˚ and still that at 10pm. Our snowdrops are out and the daffodil leaves are 4” out of the ground.
On 14 Jan 2019, out_east wrote:
Valentina Zharkova seems like yet another smart Ukrainian girl.
Russian and Ukrainians are extremely strong in applied mathematics.
Russians and Ukrainians have added vast amounts to scientific knowledge over a long period, as well as some highly unorthodox ideas.
(Late spring frosts are becoming quite common.)
You should mention in the same time:-
Elena Popova
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Resonance & wave theory in solar activity.
I wonder what Dr. Leif Svalgaard thinks?
There is a lot of interesting scientic debate about a grand solar minimum over the next 5-10 years.
More than 60% of 2018 was without sun spots.
https://youtu.be/_wB46mgJrzI
Well worth a whirl!
On 14 Jan 2019, AndyB 45d sub wrote:
Still no comments from Piers on Valentina Zharkova video that he was present at. What are your thoughts on her theory?
Very interesting Feb forecast if it happens could very chaotic
On 14 Jan 2019, out_east wrote:
Thanks P C.
You islanders had better enjoy it.
Bitter cold over the UK to come as the Scandinavian high builds, last week of Jan.
Large snow falls in East of England.
Massive snowfall yet again to come over France and the whole of central Europe to add to the already large falls in Germany & Austria of the last few days.
That will add to Vosges & Jura which were shut until last weekend.
Then this weekend coming will come wave No2 of heavy snow in the northern French alps,- already in 4/5 avalanche warning.
Next wave will finally give the Italian side proper snow.
Wind turns to north again in high altitude alps to give 2-3,beautiful crystal clear days of perfect powder snow conditions.
Better get the snow tyres ready & the big coats & hats out. It will be fun!
On 14 Jan 2019, @Piers_Corbyn wrote:
GREAT COMMS CRAIG! Another way of meteorological monitoring (now we have computers) would be a MovingAverageSeason ie moving 91day average temp and use the coldest of that (mid date) as defining "Mid-Winter" for that year. This would bring out truer winter measures. Similarly for summer. +=+=+=+=+ ALL IMPORTANT DON'T LOSE OUT HURRY WE NOW HAVE A NEW 20-50d 8 periods Feb forecast loaded (in BI 75d, 100d, AllWinter, EuEnergy and TheWholeLOT) =>=> =>=> FOR FIRST 20 BUYERS WE HAVE 50-75%OFF A WHOLE LOT OF FORECAST SUBS <= =>GO www.WeatherAction.com for details and BUY NOW - usual full forecast credits for any overlaps with existing subscriptions <=<=<= DO IT NOW Pass-it-on! Thank you
On 14 Jan 2019, stephen parker wrote:
Model watching more than five days out is entertaining, but often useless. The general consensus is cold from the end of the week, so by next week end it may become a bit clearer.This winter here in South Hertfordshire has been very uneventful, with only a few frosts and very dry.
On 13 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
10˚C at 7.30, mild and quite windy from the W, gradually turning into the NW and consequently temps shifted downward during a mostly sunny day to 3˚ at 10pm when it had also started raining lightly.
On 13 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Some mobility since yesterday and it feels fresher as a result. Cold still a few days away but building and a solid signal from the auto generated weather forecast on the Beeb site which yes needs a pinch (giant sized) of salt but has been persisting. *Average means nothing. See Feb 09 as a perfect example. An average month with temps at both extremes. May 2012 was another average month again with both sets of extremes. Some of the more famous winters had a month or so of cold (which don't forget doesn't decide to fall just into the arbitrary 28-31 day period nor decide to cut off once the metreological astronomical date is reached) yet the rest was warm or average making the DJF period undistinguished. Jan - Apr 2013 being a good example of cold that didn't follow the 'season'. We shall see how this winter has gone come April. Looking beyond there I wonder if the summer will feature blocking - like last year (repeating 75-76) or like 07-08 washout? All about where the blocks fall
On 13 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
The late 17thC had cold and warmth. We see this now with long jetstream meanders. This winter, despite the early pokes, has been a slow burner but appears to be coming together. You can see it building out east and it's slowly inching towards us. There appears no lock out on the horizon - yet - but that doesn't mean it won't be cold. 3-4 weeks of solid cold are rare in most of the BI. I said a while back its been a while (09) for a proper cold Feb & we could be there this year which is perfect timing in terms of getting real cold (coldest usually between mid Jan-mid Feb per CET). Snow? 1m in London? Never say never as it only takes a confluence of events to do it...and if we are having mild pushes a channel low can easily dump in the sweet spot. Look at Mar last year that pushed up from France. Still 66 days until equinox. "Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning"
On 13 Jan 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Following on from what Out East said it is apparent that the seasonal shift has been for 'winter' to be moving into the solstice to equinox period, however worth recalling that 09-11 were early + throw in the snow of late Oct 08 which was for some places in the Sth the earliest settling snown since the 1880s. That period (late 00s) also had some early spring warmth (e.g. Late Feb 09 following the 'wake up cold' of early that month ended average*). I'm sure it will to & fro. The slug was symptomatic of this - a blocking high that refused to budge & despite the promise gave a measly 4 frosts since Xmas eve as drew in moisture from the Atlantic due to its position. A few more clear skies & it would have made a big diff from the grey muck. Last week I looked up & was surprised to see stars it's been that bad. All part of MIA conditions some will bring extremes on either side (Dec 10 2nd coldest in record by just 0.1C then Dec 15 record warmth) ...
On 13 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID: how right you are about UK parochialism on the weather/climate scenario. It's more than just what people see outside their windows.
RICH: standard models are backing off on intensity of the PM outbreaks and increasing the impact of intervening 'warm slugs', so coldish, but not severe and variable--standard Britwinter stuff indeed.
OUT_East and Sandy Hamer: Aye late and lasting into spring might very well be the case, but we've had this before eg Feb-April 1986 and to some extent 1985 too ( hill snow in June in Scotland)
On 13 Jan 2019, east_side wrote:
"Eastside, a foot of snow in London ?
I’d take a bet with you that doesn’t happen"
Maybe I take you up on the bet.
Here this morning first real decent snow of the season.
40cm overnight, then mon-tues clear & very cold.
Forecast -22 on the 24th.
This is the first outbreak.
The next one will be massive EU wide.
At the same time, I reckon a 1m-2m on the pyrenees next weekend which is currently snowless.
Remember 2010?
The entire UK was showing snow cover up to 1m in many parts of the north of England, & the SSW has caused a huge outbreak of cold weather in the USA.
Next will be Europe.
Seasons are often 6 weeks out of kilter now.
Don't be suprised if the sort of snow we used to have in December ends up end Jan-Mid Feb, with late frosts until MAY.
People have short memories.
On 13 Jan 2019, Bill S ( N E Wales) wrote:
Pressure tumbling quickly the last 36 hours, hence the strong wind. I’ll miss the quiet conditions of late as irs allowed me some fine weather for outside work(not cold and staying dry) Only 1.6mm rain in 3 weeks Does this bode well for the summer coming up?, what’s the potential for drought particularly the SE given last years fine summer and will the forecast cold blocking add to lack of rain? (if it comes to fruition).Paddy , catkins are out on some trees round here too ,daffodils growing strong also .
On 13 Jan 2019, sanders hamer wrote:
10 weeks to go till winter ends?.first 6 weeks of winter18/19 looking like a very damp wet dry above average winter so fare still early days. last winter was a lot dryer and colder and snowier. very much like winter 2012 and 2013. still things might turn around come february or march like last february march winter 2018 .who knows there might be a cold spring on the cards like spring 2013 . . europe looks very cold at the moment looking at the gfs charts so does russia to.might be a bigger turn around comeing from russia late winter.beast from east.weather here in preston lancashire gusty winds top temp 10 degrees rain on and of all day tomorrow temp 10 degrees rain.
On 13 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
I wish people would not get obsessed with the UK, when considering if LIA conditions are happening or not.There is a bigger picture.
On 12 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, the beginning of another mild and mostly cloudy day with an occasionally gusty W’ly wind, temps climbing slowly all day to reach 10˚ by 10pm. It’s been so warm of late that hazel catkins have started opening, that’s a bit early I would say. Now I need to go lie down, that snow stress is really getting to me, Maria :-)
On 12 Jan 2019, Rich wrote:
All forecasts suggesting colder spell (no chance of foot of snow in London or SE I agree) or memorably cold, just typical British winter cold (you expect some cold weather - or at least you used to).Likely some snow, mostly Scotland/NW England and a few flakes for London to excite headline writers. Ill make a prediction- winter will end up average overall (its been well above so will need to be cold to achieve this), probably not one to back up mini ice age view, along with most winters last 30 years in UK . Shame as Id rather have snow than grey damp merk any day!
On 12 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
standard models are in general agreement about a colder period from late next week on, but vary from each other and within each other in their predictions of the severity and duration of PM outbreaks, though none are going for an 'east-beast' scenario.
On 12 Jan 2019, Stan wrote:
Eastside, a foot of snow in London ? I’d take a bet with you that doesn’t happen
On 12 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Brr noticeably parky this morning def. tad early for shorts so even though they said mild till next week my legs can verify otherwise. Some nice sunny spells for a time but mostly cloudy a little windy wnw and 9 deg feeling like 4 at 11.42 a.m Last week Met.ie said cold and snow will not hit Ireland only UK now they say today in the papers Met say "SSW to hit Ireland by the end of Jan. But highly uncertain if Ireland will see snowfall."
On 11 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Hahaha snow stress is it a thing? It should be the snow tension is just so funny right now 🤣 chilly this morning 6 deg at 9 a.m shorts on and 10 deg this eve some sunny spells this morning drizzle this aft. but not too much to put off a run.. Cold weather should follow now the shorts are out 😎
On 11 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, cloudy for most of the day, light NW’ly breeze gradually swinging into the SW, max temp 8˚, great ‘open’ weather to do lots of winter work in but I won’t complain when the snow cometh, 4˚ at 10pm.
On 11 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID( Yorkshire) got my points in a a oner. Both BBC and STV main evening forecasts tonight going for colder spell from mid week. Could be quite a bit of snow as warmer 'mini-slugs' periodically bump into PM of varying intensity.
On 11 Jan 2019, out_east wrote:
If people are whinging about lack of snow in the UK, they better stop fairly soon.
Gatwick & Heathrow can be stopped by stuff as simple as a drone.
Let's just see how they manage with a foot of snow shall we?
Looks like a nice heavy snowfaill gonna drop on French pyrenees too.
So far this winter has been snowless!
I'm not sure they are quite prepared for the shock yet!
On 11 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:
Hi David
Fair points made, and yes protracted aftermath could be spot on in line with the protracted down welling. Re this winter being a biggy.....I have a smal theory inasmuch that I too thought we could get it...but on the solarcycle theory, we are equivalent to 07/08 but minima is deeper.....so on basis that the last 2 greats were 09/10 and 10/11....maybe winter 20/21 will be the ‘special one’ that plunges deeper into LIA
On 11 Jan 2019, AndyB 45d sub & winter wrote:
Interesting to read all the comments below, but what most of you seem to forget or don't know is the sun is entering a Super Grand Solar Minimum that has never been seen before in modern times. And wether or not it gets very cold this winter is immaterial eventually it will get so cold here that food and crops will stop growing, then look out!
On 11 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Hi Fred, I don't have piers forecasts to compare but yes you are right my cold spell slipped East. I did also state something more substantial/sustained further down the line. Which I know might seem ambiguous, however I meant end of January. I have touted this winter for a long time and in some parts of Europe they are getting hammered and it is only 11th of January. I would expect the jet stream to move South shortly and no two SSW are the same, however it does look like the reversal of winds will be protracted in the tropesphere. So in regards to February brutal for parts of Europe would be my call but as Piers alludes to and as always, somewhere will get Mild extremes.
On 11 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:
David, the nothing until Spring was just a flip comment. I quantified with follow up to say most January.....Feb is way beyond and even challenging for Piers. You have to admit though things are burning a lot slower than anticipated by most...including yourself. Your northerly was a fair assumption....but it is too Far East and E Europe got hit.....correct?
Going forward like I say I can confirm models (great news for cold lover) are falling into line with Piers POV...thanks for responding Piers...an appreciated update and reassuring too.
On 11 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:
David, not inconsistent the ‘until Spring’ was a flip remark....I quantified by saying rest/most of January in a follow up post. I think that’s realistic at this stage unless you know differently? Having got the full winter LRF I’ll hold on judgement re that.....don’t think that widespread High Latitude Blocking is guaranteed from this SSW or indeed that the U.K. will benefit from it re cold weather. Next 2 weeks will determine where we head ....let’s hope they continue to mimick more and more Piers’ LRF.
On 11 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Fred I think there is some confusion here. You said there is no real winter until March? You seem very inconsistent with your thoughts. Up and down like a tarts knickers. I think that's the point Ron was making when comparing you to a weather model.
On 11 Jan 2019, Willo wrote:
No rain for three weeks now here in the Southeast. This constant Atlantic high is starting to get frustrating - Just our luck the jet stream decides to get stuck with the most drab weather over us. If it were snow....
On 10 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:
Let’s have some evidence Ron....what cold in March?
On 10 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, cloudy start with a NW’ly breeze but brightening up every now and then, max temp 9˚, mostly dry with only a few drops of rain, really appreciate this dry weather; we had a tree come down in Monday’s gale in a usually wet place but underneath the uplifted root it was completely dry, haven’t seen that for a while there. 7˚ at 9.30pm.
On 10 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
FRED, I am beginning t think your are getting as fickle as GFS!
On 10 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Though there was nothing of note until Spring Fred?
On 10 Jan 2019, @Piers_Corbyn wrote:
FRED, ALL, THANKS FOR COMMS. Yes I to all if you don't yet subscribe DO IT NOW! There's exciting weather coming BI Eu Usa; you need to prepare for this year like no other +WE'VE up to ***67%OFF*** deals NOW <=<= GoGoGo. +=+=+ On The Sudden Stratospheric Warming SSW. YES as I have said these lead to extra wild swings in the JetStream IF they transmit downwards. This one has transmitted downwards as you see in graphs www.WeatherAction.com homepage LHS bottom for 5mb+50mb height levels. NB these graphs end Dec31. I presume non-update is due to the Usa govt shut-down; a matter brought about by the same politicians who promote the fraud of Man-Made Global-Warming {Can we too have a say on ending the shut-down?!}. THIS extra wild Jet Stream will lead we confidently expect to the Wild cold blasts BI Eu +Usa we predicted for sooner or later in Jan. BUY NOW FOR DETAILS! Confidence of detail + timing has gone up. Note there will be warmer swings in some other parts N Hemisphere. Thanks
On 10 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:
Ron
I’m not so hard on Piers, indeed I said if you haven’t got his forecast then get it to compare. Currently (if this gets posted) his synoptic set up is very close, but reality is it’s a tad east compared to what Piers shows. However, things have corrected West this month compared to Dec as Piers said .....but not enough yet. However, great news afoot, the models are now correcting further west again and I will say that the forecast is increasing in accuracy by day going forward. On that basis, at least get the 30day forecast folks.
What I would like is some I put from Piers on his thoughts of this very big SSW event that occurred officially on 2/1/19 and what (if any) implications this has on his winter LRF going forward into Feb.
Best Regards
On 09 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Well one thing for sure is its too quiet 2nd there is this mexican wave of up an down in contrasting temp daily over the last week, looking at what is going on around the world not just locally I wouldn't rule out a sudden change to hello winter and we have Lunar stuff too by the tiny ones first birthday so I think something cold is brewing towards end of mth maybe more likely end first week of Feb and thats just a hunch, plus we were forecast dry an settled and we've had cloudy n drizzly too so met must be struggling a tiny bit usually means weather around the corner! Mostly cloudy 8 deg at 10.27pm
On 09 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, somewhat cloudy but turning into a fairly sunny day with no rain, pretty still so I was watching the smoke rising straight up out of the chimney, doesn’t happen often here, max temp 3˚, still that at 9.30pm.
On 09 Jan 2019, Tony ex sub wrote:
Ron I don't think people are hard on piers .....he has a near impossible task with the way the streams sun behaves lately. ...for me I gave up paying due to them being only around 25%accuracy ....I don't understand all the workings of the weatther and rely on people like piers David yerself etc for your input but let's be honest no one seems to know wat the he'll is gonna happen this winter ......and to be fair wen yer paying money out u need a lot more accuracy ....just an opinion not a knock on anyone
On 09 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID: there may be data for the 1962/3, 1981/2 1995 and 2010/11 winters that may help in respect of SSW.
FRED: the ECM and GFS models seem to be only going for various directions of PM hitting UK. Regarding the latter it switched in just 8 hrs or so from a very direct and severe PM hitting us on the 24th to a much more benign westerly one. So why so hard on Piers at weeks ahead?
On 08 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:
Does anyone have Piers’ winter forecast? If so please look at the models and his forecast and compare. Very interesting going forward and compare with seasonal models responding to the SSW.
On 08 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Just because the UK has not had it bad yet, look elsewhere,. Modern day Records for temps and snow could go this winter in parts of Europe. No coincidence that this follows from some very low solar output over the last year. Did 1947 get triggered by an SSw around end of December 1946 I wonder? Can't find any records that far back but I suspect it did.
On 08 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, light showers but then a sunny morning, still with a good NW’ly wind, temp remaining at the same level all day, a few showers in the afternoon and evening, 2˚ at 9pm
On 08 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
FRED: Piers does not make the weather or climate, he only postulates it and at a much longer distance than the highly variable standard models. Talking about which, GFS is currently predicting a severe PM outbreak on 24th January and several lesser ones from around mid month. Please remember that the 1947 severe winter did not start until the 20th January.
On 08 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:
David
Interesting to hear Piers’ call for Feb and if he’s revising it. I don’t think his winter forecast factored in a SSW, or if it did then he doesn’t anticipate it to be a HLB lock out
On 08 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Fred you have also written February off? With such an event in the srat it's a bold call. I expect a big freeze in western Europe starting this Month.
On 08 Jan 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
An interesting 'it might just be coincidence' observation.
15th July 1981, snowfall down to below 1000m in Salzburgerland Austria. First week of November 1981, one metre of snowfall down to the valleys in the same area.
Last week of August 2018: snowfall in southern Germany and Austria down to around 1000m. Around 10th December 2018, 50-100cm of snow in Salzburgerland, Austria.
So two extreme summer snowfall events are both followed about 15 weeks later by a major early winter snowfall.
1981/2 was a long hard winter in northern Austria. Right now, 2018/19 is shaping up as an epically snowy one.
Coincidence or a possible predictive tool to be monitored in future?
Key question: was there a snow event at the end of October 1998? (huge snow event started mid February 1999)
On 08 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:
David
I have Piers forecast and the type of set up he foresees is not High Latitude Blocking, and everything is getting pushed further back and eastward adjusted. It’s why my confidence is high that Jan will be a blow out
On 08 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Hi Fred, we have a displacement becoming a split up above still working it's way down. This will cause chaos in the atmosphere. Too early to write of winter. Biiter air could hit is from north or east yet. Just checked date it is 08th of Jan.
On 08 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:
David, no I’m being realistic, well certainly wipe out most of January...it’s all getting pushed east. Just watch what’s happening.
On 07 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
First day back to school and college and after a quiet Xmas weather wise it was strange and nice to hear a bit of wind outside this morning, all quiet again before lunch but some drizzly showers continued on n off. Mostly cloudy and 6 deg at 11.43pm The crows are back hanging about so should get colder soon, though it has been nice to get stuff done, interesting and good either way.
On 07 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, drizzle but not too much wind yet, it only got going by 9am from a SW’ly direction, slowly changing into the NW and we had some significant gusts from about 3 - 5pm, by which time any residual mildness had gone, max temp 9˚ in the forenoon. A mostly brilliant sunny day after the morning’s rain had cleared, a few light showers in the evening but the wind is slightly less wild now at 9pm, 6˚.
On 07 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Fred you sound like Glenn. Your slug has eaten away, at your judgement.
On 07 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:
Hi David
That’s the point....it’s too Far East yet again. Don’t expect any real winter this year...until Spring.
On 07 Jan 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Update on Austrian/German snow: a further 100cm is expected on mountains between Tuesday evening and Sunday, leading Rudi Mair, head of Tirolean avalanche warning service, to realise he may be issuing a 5/5 risk level, which equates to evacuating buildings, infrastructure damage and even valleys being closed off. Too early to say, in his words, but definitely possible.
The highest reported seven day snowfall since 31/12 is in Tauplitz, Steiermark, with 300cm new snow.
Just imagine London with that amount of snow. Hysterical wailing by snowflakes!!
I do hope the idiotic MPs at Westminster take a read of www.tt.com (if any of them understand German) to see what pictures they should present to their global warming gurus.....
On 07 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Fred you will make your mind up. I get the impression you follow the models day to day. Don't bother wasting your time with that. Yes it's not panning out as expected but we are on the 7th of January. Things can and will change quickly over the next couple of weeks for better or worse. I expected a northerly this week but other than a watered down version it ain't going to happenen. Plenty of winter left to run.
On 07 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:
Piers
Can we have a comment from you. What is it with the set up it’s all going to be too Far East again. Parts of Europe getting unprecedented snow, UK to remain mild for the foreseeable with HP to SW too much of an influence. What has caused this setup and what is causing January to be off target again in the U.K.with this ‘slug’ HP refusing to budge.? This is one of the worst winters in memory, and if this is LIA circulation....I would rather the sun ramped up.
On 07 Jan 2019, out_east wrote:
People posting in the UK have to start to get the big picture.
The UK is a little damp island on the edge of a lot of water.
Suprisingly for such a small place it does have quite diverse weather comparing say Dover to Shetland or Orkney.
It's hardly suprising bearing in mind there's quite a big difference from the flat south of England to 59 deg north where Aurora Borealis is a more or less daily feature!
The USA is in for a nice taste of heavy precipitation, inc loads of snow. Weather is in for a quite sudden change in Europe within the next 4-5 days & then sharp cold around the 18-20th.
In the Baltic it's dropping to close to -20C this week.The sea is just starting to freeze,- a little later than usual but here we have the 4-6 week shift in the seasons showing again.
Whenever I see the Baltic sea start to freeze, the ice roads maybe to form in Feb, don't worry, a nice anticyclone over Scandinavia, formation of the easterly air flow, & EUROPE will freeze like in DEC-JA
On 06 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, overcast all day with a barely perceptible NW’ly breeze and feeling humid, max temp 7˚, down to 4˚ by 9.30pm. I’m always watching the growing day length at this time of year, in the evening we are now about 20 minutes ahead since the solstice, particularly noticeable on cloudy days, but - as the day lengthens the cold strengthens, which is what I like to wheel out every year.
On 06 Jan 2019, Rich wrote:
I'm not Glen either, but I'm sure I remember the likes of Joe Bastardi telling everyone that winters from 2013 onwards would be severe (3-4 days of cold weather doth not make a severe winter) in the UK/NW Europe, seems to be quite the opposite the last few years, this year looks no different currently, nothing next week, weve had about 4-5 frosts this autumn winter, none lower than 0 deg near Newmarket. Keep hoping for cold!
On 06 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
GEOFF: the severe winter of 1947 did not get going until the 21st January and from them to mid March it was not exactly 'spring'
On 06 Jan 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
All swings and roundabouts: a prolonged Nordstau is bringing the heaviest sustained burst of snow for the Northern Austrian Alps for around 20 years, with 150cm in three days reported in several locations and more to come through this week. Whether it will match February 1999, who knows.
Because of the location of the high pressure, much of Switzerland has missed out.
I saw a similar event mid January 1983, although rain in the valleys mid event meant the two metre snow depths were limited to the mountains above 1600m.
On 06 Jan 2019, Geoff wrote:
By the time winter 2018/19 gets it's Big Pants on...it will already be spring! I can quite see why there was no cold warning from Piers in Nov / Dec. (P.S I'm not Glenn in disguise).
On 06 Jan 2019, Roy wrote:
I hope there is another Beauty from the East like there was last year. Love really cold weather.
On 05 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, overcast for much of the day bar a few sunny spots in the afternoon, contrary to MO’s prediction of a sunny day, max temp 4˚ with a light W’ly breeze, 0˚ by 9pm with frost on the car roof. We have a yellow wind warning for Monday midday.
On 05 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:
Piers
Your forecast is clearly not linked to the SSW.....now its happened and longlasting and sliw development......is there a change to February? Or is this SSW non specific for NW Europe?
Fred
On 05 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
standard models show 'slug' holding on until Monday when a brief interlude of PM air displacing it, then 'slug' rebuilding until 12th/13th and then it begins to get 'winter interesting' after that.
On 04 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
1˚C at 7.30 but the ground remained frozen all day, light NW’ly breeze and much sunnier than MO had predicted, max temp 3˚, clear sky by evening and 0˚ by 8.30pm. Another sunny day in store for us tomorrow.
On 04 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:
The ‘Slug’ looks like being jostled big time soon.....its been a while but we could have standby for lift off next week onwards, with a long main course mid Jan onwards. Models are I have say are now seeing Piers’ view. If it continues on course......get the forecast. I now see why he stated that things look like being much more in line for Jan......
Fred
On 03 Jan 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
New Years Day was promising to start some nice sunshine and blue sky fresh but not too cold, a good day to get out walking with the crew, cloud crept in and a few short moments of v.light drizzle from time to time and milder temp by afternoon. Last 2 days mostly cloudy with glimpses of clear sky on occassion clearing more so by eve.giving cooler nights, 3 deg. At 10pm
On 03 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-4˚C at 7.30, clear as a bell, light NW’ly breeze, beautiful sunshine all day, max temp 0˚, still that at 9pm. Long may it continue, but apparently it won’t.
On 03 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Ron with the SSW and subsequent energy displacements that high will either move North/west or east in my opinion. In the next 10 Days. Maybe a little too late for my 4th to 10th forecast but we shall see.
On 03 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
warmists are already attributing the PV split and any forthcoming colder weather in Europe/UK to global warming.
FRED: I share your doubts about the 'SLUG' being shifted.
first inside window ice this winter, yesterday.
On 02 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, somewhat cloudy to begin with but almost no wind apart from a gentle NW’ly breeze, fairly sunny after that for the whole day, max temp 3˚ but by late afternoon we already had -1˚ and by 10pm it was -3˚. Things have dried up nicely and it is a real bonus to have a bit of cold for a change.
On 02 Jan 2019, Fred wrote:
Piers
Why has confidence increased re things coming more in line in January and not being too far E / NE? Also with a SSW folk are anticipating widespread High Latitude Blocking.....you don’t seem to, more a PV displacement?
I’m sceptical of this slug being dislodged.
Fred
On 02 Jan 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
NEW FOREST: Aye GFS though suggesting the Fred's Slug will be quite resilient is now showing some changes not apparent in yesterday's run.
On 02 Jan 2019, stephen parker wrote:
Big Joe usually on the money with this kind of thing, lets wait and see.
On 02 Jan 2019, Bill S (N E Wales) wrote:
Now that’s high pressure2019! 1043mb here today. Cold as well at -1.9c this morning (0600). Promises of a cracking winters day for getting out. Pity I’m back at work🙁.
On 01 Jan 2019, NewForest wrote:
Looks like the SSW is making its move, forecast models picking up on significant changes over the coming weeks to something a bit more winter like! Joe Bastardi made an interesting tweet, Jan 15th to end of Feb, mentions extreme cold events for UK (and nw Europe & US). Still feeling mildish on South Cost tonight, tomorrow forecast to have a different feel.
On 01 Jan 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, NW’ly wind and a little rain early on, dry after that though mostly cloudy. The temperature did not shift all day except to go down to 2˚ by 9pm, very different feel today in the drying wind smelling of winter.
On 01 Jan 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Happy new year all. I would expect some big swings in weather for northern hemisphere in next 10 - 14 Days. #Ssw #slugbait
On 31 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
A real borefest weather wise for the past few days with only a brief frost xmas eve gone by midnight and the odd bit of mist since. The next few days offers more interest with frost and fog before the slug high moves again. Beyond that though signs now appearing of some interest and that's as the ssw effects filters down. 2018 was a good year weatherwise although the summer was a bit much. The alarmists did shriek an awful lot this year but then again were over the target so expect flak. The last UN shindig came to nothing. Trump is still a thorn, the French people have said non and Brazil has joined the fray. Climate Realism has landed on the beaches. Just wait until the accounting starts. Where has all that money gone? Seriously what has the vast money spent gone towards? No wonder the shreik do hard. Hope to add some more ssw musings soon. Lots to look forward to in 2019. Happy New Year all 🎉😀
On 31 Dec 2018, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Ron I know right have thought the same point many times and Paddy that made me laugh out loud 😁 feel a nip in the air outside tonight in a tshirt compared to previous nights 8 deg with a dew point of 6 at 11.18pm A fab end to a fab year despite no snow..yet 😋 Happy New Year all of ye 😎
On 31 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, cloudy start but brightening up soon enough to give us a splendid sunny day with amazing temps, max was 12˚ and still is at 10pm, which is a bit unusual for Hogmanay but there you go, that’s all these cow farts emanating from Al Gorblimey’s trouser leg. Happy New Year All!
On 31 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
noticed that our local Scottish Television forecaster was mentioning that the recent SSW might affect our weather in the near future. We never seemed to hear much about these and the jet stream in the pre -Piers era.
On 31 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
STEPHEN PARKER: will be interesting to see if SSW knocks our 'Fred's Slug' over the UK or intensifies the difference between western and eastern Europe.
On 31 Dec 2018, stephen parker wrote:
SSW event strengthening as we speak, should make second half of Jan early Feb interesting.
On 30 Dec 2018, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
A continuation of the same here as last post also a few glimpses of sun and sky on the odd occasion though more cloudy than not. High humidity and 8 deg with the chance of showers in a bit.
On 30 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, still and clear after some overnight rain, followed by a fairly sunny day with a max temp of 8˚ and a light SW’ly breeze, still 7˚ by 9.30pm. == Bill S, the grass here is also amazingly green for the turn of the year, you can see the individual blades shining in the sunlight, could easily get the mower out for a cut! Not much feed value in that, of course, but the sheep in the next door neighbour’s field seem to be enjoying it.
On 30 Dec 2018, AndyB 45d sub wrote:
Worrying times in the US after just a KP5 stream from a recurring coronal hole blew up several major transformers, due to our weakening magnetosphere. Just what would happen to us when a large X class flare hits doesn't bare thinking about.
On 30 Dec 2018, Harry Williams wrote:
December's been a strange month - Very mild at the start of the month (15C on the 2nd) but within two weeks temperatures plummeted to 1C on the 15th with small snow squalls in East Anglia followed by freezing rain/sleet in northern Eng and heavy snow in Scotland. Temperatures since then became milder again, but locally here in Kent we had our coldest Christmas Day since 2010 (4C).
December's have pretty much followed the same pattern since 2011. Typically mild with a few intermittent cold snaps.
On 30 Dec 2018, out_east wrote:
Further to my observation of about a week ago,we seem to be getting the classic recent EU winter scenario building up again.(NO SNOW in Jura or Vosges!)
Ie, the seasons are desyncronised, pushing them to the side =later,of their more normal patterns by up to 6 weeks*.
We had:-
A sudden cold patch in oct followed by an unusually warm nov > unusually warm dec, followed by what seems to be a slow descent into colder winter weather finally in mid jan.
There is now dry anticyclonic weather over the alps, so snow fall is quite desperately needed.
We can see a change occuring somewhere around 6th Jan.
As some more proof of the conditions above*, the historic wine growing region of Orleans France, has had to cope with so many late frosts & cold springs, many of the wine makers have had to close for good.
Bordeaux has also had late frosts & hail.
Meanwhile in the Baltic states this year we have an usually warm start to winter & almost no sea ice.
Max snow is only 20cm, sea at +1C
On 30 Dec 2018, Bill S ( N E Wales) wrote:
Hints of spring lthelast few days 11.4 c this morning. The month was very mild here and despite lack of rain since 22nd it has been wetter than average with 98.mm rain. Predominantly sw winds. Doesn’t look like any changes to the current dry calm conditions in the near future . I expect the 30 d forecast will reflect this. My back gardens summary hottest 33c 26/6 , coldest -6.6c 28/2 wettest35.6mm 20/9,windiest21/9( this coincided with a rapid rise in pressure with HP peaking at 1040 mb on24/9 ).LP983mb 6/3. Despite the lack of light , grass ( and weeds) are growing slow but steady.
On 30 Dec 2018, Steve,Dorset,UK sub wrote:
On 29 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:.......yes Paddy you are correct usually here about mid to late jan but it does depend on the weather It seems very mild this December but that could change real soon,
Looking at the sun through a vail of clouds while setting it looked different somehow a lemon colour not the yellow to orange very wierd never seen it like that before , mind you it just could have been the thin cloud it was shining through. Spooky., mild again today but dry with not a breath of wind.
Happy New Year to all.
On 29 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, clear as a bell, W’ly breeze which suddenly turned into a NW’ly gale by 9am and kept going until about 4pm, it was warm though, with a max temp of 10˚ and mostly sunny, calmer cloudy evening, 4˚ at 10pm. We had a wasp fly into the house when we had opened the kitchen skylight while cooking, first time I’ve seen that at the end of December! == Steve, Dorset, our snowdrops have been poking out of the ground since the beginning of the month, not flowering, of course, but still, they don’t usually appear before sometime in February.
On 29 Dec 2018, Steve, Dorset UK wrote:
I have my first snowdrops in flower, not to many yet but if this mild weather that piers failed to forecast continues the daffodils will be closely behind them,
Cloud no wind to speak of and mild 12c.
On 29 Dec 2018, Tony ex sub wrote:
Don't be a tight arse rich buy them both lol ....it's a win win situation
On 28 Dec 2018, Rich wrote:
Finger crossed for the cold, but little sign of much at the moment, despite musings pre winter and During December. How does the last few years and this winter to date fit in with idea we are heading into mini ice age? How dose it fit with less snow patches in highlands and shrinking Alpine glaciers or as per publicised higher global temps is it all to be disbelieved? More to the point, do I need to get my 6 year old a new sledge or stick with scooter?
On 28 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, some light rain to start with but then a really sunny day in a light W’ly breeze with a max temp of 7˚, probably a bit warmer in the sun, mild enough to break a sweat easily, down to 3˚ by 9.30pm.
On 28 Dec 2018, Tony ex sub wrote:
Thanks for the reply David. ....I know you have been going fir a colder January. ....as a postman I like to know on advancewhat I might face ...when I subbed sorry to say the forecasts for my area were only on average 25% accurate no blame being attached and I used to forewarn my fellow posties and ended up with egg on my face numerous times ......until the accuracy of bad weather becomes more accurate I shall avoid subbing
On 28 Dec 2018, Fred wrote:
Ron Greer.....yes the slug hangs around. Piers next displaced PV for New Year will be too far NE for UK. The Synoptics are right but shift 1000miles NE and it’s bang on. Now what for Jan? High latitude blocking responding to SSW from week 2 or continued displaced PV events. Piers says he’d adjusted things NE.....I’m hoping he’s wrong as the slug will control
Fred
On 28 Dec 2018, Glenn wrote:
TONY EX SUB I know what you mean because as you said the signs should be there. One thing is certain is that they just aren't there this winter. Its good to see other people besides myself who are concerned about the winter this year.
On 28 Dec 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Hi Tony - I think give it 3/4 Days, to see the SSW kick in and we may get a quick change in weather patterns over the Northern hemisphere. Still literally, all up in the air
On 28 Dec 2018, Tony ex sub wrote:
You can understand why there is a little scepticism about an lia ....certainly the UK is showing no real trends ....I know it's early winter but and I'm deff No expert surely the signs should be there it is very mild to be fair and from all corners I've read it will be till at least mid January. ...dave what do u think ????
On 28 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
The FSF (Fred's Slug Factor) has to be included in any predictive system for B& I--- looks like very mild New Year period--shades of 1990?
On 28 Dec 2018, stephen parker wrote:
Its the ongoing SSW which may well give us an interesting spell of weather, and us down here in the Beautiful South any chance of the White Stuff. We probably have around ten weeks then it will be all over bar the shouting.
On 27 Dec 2018, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Cloudy mostly dry @ first some light drizzly showers at times after lunch. High humidity Max 9 deg. 6 now at 10.20pm feeling a little cooler after a humid mild few days.
On 27 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, clear as a bell with Venus shining bright in the S, a mostly sunny day with a max temp of 7˚ and a light SW’ly breeze, 5˚ at 9.30pm.
On 27 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Fred's slug is a very sticky creature! No signs of any kind of winter on standard models well into January.
On 27 Dec 2018, AndyB 45d sub wrote:
Hi Piers from your comments one would assume that Jan 45d was available but not there yet
On 27 Dec 2018, @piers_Corbyn twitter wrote:
THANKS ALL for great comms through the year and recently. +=+=+ CHRISTINE +CRAIG re Sudden (upper) Stratospheric warmings (SSW), We (WeatherAction) have had some success at predicting them in the past. They are probably a more energetic solar-particle / magnetic connectivity effect likely involving ozone. They may or may not transmit downwards in the stratosphere and when they do give extra wild jet stream effects. Their energy content is higher lower down (so some sort of magnifier operates). +=+=+ MATT+DAVID(Yorks) Thanks comms Yes A N/E pattern shift could have helped. Central Atlantic mildness is a factor (also). Forecasts NW Eu +BI look like coming more on course in Jan [NB rest of Europe and Usa pretty good in Dec]. I have nevertheless included some NE shift in this Jan - an exciting month. +=+=+=+ ALL, ENJOY THIS YEAR OF EXCITING WEATHER AND SCIENCE-POLITICS!
On 26 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, some overnight rain, mostly cloudy day with a max temp of a whopping 10˚, intermittent strong S’ly breeze but so still warm in the evening that we have our bedroom window wide open for the second night running, still 7˚ at 9.30pm.
On 26 Dec 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Hi Matt - Fair and balanced assessment in my opinion. The cold and snow events often so not materialse. If piers adjusted his SLAT to shift pressurs maps to the East of he UK a little, I feel it may be more accurate. Fred has also alouded to this. The real skill, which should get more recognition, is the ability to forecast extremes around the globe weeks in advance.under the "R" system. Anyway merry Christmas to all.
On 26 Dec 2018, Matt wrote:
Hi Piers, I've been following your forecasts for several years and maintain that your pressure forecasts are approx 75-80% accurate, but over the years you've consistently over-estimated snowfall to the extent that I generally disregard your forecasts for "snowmeggedon". No doubt you're looking into it.
I've put a new comment on my website themaverickman.com about this. I still maintain that my analysis is the most comprehensive ever done on your forecasts. Your Wikipedia page is very unfair and I think you should challenge it. I put a link to my website on there sometime ago and it was taken off by the page owner, but no proper, fair, unbiased, scientific appraisal of your forecasts exists.
Best of luck to Weatheraction for 2019!
On 25 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-3˚C overnight, but already warming to 0˚ by 7.30, overcast, light NW’ly breeze, then a sunny day with a max temp of 8˚ and the breeze turning W & then SW’ly, 5˚ by 10pm. Merry Christmas all! Glenn, does weather have tradition?
On 25 Dec 2018, Glenn wrote:
Another non-White non-traditional Christmas. This winter I have lost faith big-time in the weather. Let's be honest about it, snow and cold winters are now a thing of the past in southern Britain so anyone hoping to see it from now on will be out of luck. Snow RIP February 2018.
On 25 Dec 2018, AndyB 45d sub wrote:
A very Merry Christmas to all from sunny St Lucia our first Xmas away, seems strange not to have it cold and wet.
On 24 Dec 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Cloudy drizzly foggy and damp 8 deg at 11.45pm Merry Xmas to Piers & all at Weather action⛄have a good un 😁
On 24 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, ground frost, clear moonlit start followed by a sunny day with a light NW’ly breeze, frost staying put in shaded areas, max temp 2˚, then -2˚ at 10pm under a hazy moonlit sky.
On 24 Dec 2018, Christine Gaskill wrote:
Thank you for that. My question though is why this happens? Assuming it is energy from the sun causing the heating and compression, do we know why it only heats the stratosphere in this way, on these occasions? What is different? Is our usual shielding different in some way? I can't find this information anywhere and it's perplexing me.
On 24 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Christine - oops. Try now I've updated the video.
On 24 Dec 2018, Christine Gaskill wrote:
Thank you for your swift reply. The link doesn't appear unfortunately.
On 24 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Christine try this video === https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2016/02/23/watch-what-is-a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-and-how-does-it-work/
On 24 Dec 2018, Christine Gaskill wrote:
Hi, can anyone explain what causes the Sudden Stratospheric Warming events please? How does the energy enter the stratosphere at that time? What is different exactly? Thank you.
On 23 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, slight ground frost, cloudy start, followed by a fairly sunny morning and afternoon, max temp 4˚, light NW’ly breeze, 2˚ again by 9.30pm but no sign of frost.
On 22 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, light rain which soon petered out and we had a reasonably dry and occasionally sunny day, although everything is dripping wet and humid, with a light W’ly breeze and a max temp of 6˚, down to 4˚ by 10pm, nice moonshine.
On 22 Dec 2018, NewForest wrote:
FRED - “slug”... I like it! :)
On 21 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, fairly clear sky and quite damp from overnight rain, also quite cloudy but turning into a bright day nevertheless with cirrostratus causing a milky kind of sunlight, very light SW’ly breeze with a max temp of 4˚, cooling considerably by mid afternoon, breeze changing into the NW, 0˚ by 8pm, frost on car roof (which I mention quite often as a first indicator).
On 21 Dec 2018, C View wrote:
Giant hail hits Sydney Australia damage running into the
millions they say
On 21 Dec 2018, out_east wrote:
I don't see any change in the current weather pattern before the end of December.
Anticyclones over Scandinavia, cold weather in central Russian and Ural, warm stormy wet weather charging into the bay of Biscay as of today yet again.
+
Pouring rain in France, plenty of strong winds for Scotland and some high altitude snow in the alps.
Current ski conditions are totally unlike last year, (which was fantastic for a lot of December).
Right now only the southern Alps is good, while it's really impossible in the north part, and stormy winds are blowing from the south west right up into the Rhine valley. (ie. NO SNOW in Jura or Vosges!)
better be patient!
On 21 Dec 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Fred - slug, not heard that one lol. Well slugs don't like salt and there will be plenty of that being chucked around in a few weeks.
On 21 Dec 2018, Fred wrote:
NewForest, yes that’s generally correct....displaced PV. For those wanting cold unfortunately we have what I call a slug developing.....High Pressure over Spain and France. Once it sets up shop....goodbye at least 2018 and probably a fair bit into January.
On 21 Dec 2018, NewForest wrote:
I haven’t seen Piers forecast FRED but based on your comment I am guessing he went for a cold northerly flow? He has missed a few over the years but it’s a different approach to regular forecasting that we all buy into with Piers, and it’s evolving continually so will hopefully become more accurate with time. I still see the charts predicting a high pressure formation over the UK next week, with the SSW in the mix things can change quickly so maybe an evolution of all the factors will come together and give that cold flow? I’m a fan of cold, snowy weather btw!
On 20 Dec 2018, Fred wrote:
Unfortunately Piers forecast will see the Arctic plunge be too far east ......yet again. This continuous miss is a real concern....something is wrong
On 20 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, dreich and drizzly but what do you expect at this time of year? That was the theme for the day, light SW’ly breeze, max temp 5˚, down to 4˚ again by 10pm with the moon and odd star twinkling through the clouds. Regarding the snow & cold/no snow & cold debate, I’m not too unhappy when it’s mild & open for much of the time, makes practical life on the farm a lot easier even though I do welcome frost etc also.
On 20 Dec 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Glenn - you really must stop equating your birth with the start of climate history. I was born in 1964 and grew up in NW London from the age of five. I remember my dad getting us a toboggan just after Christmas 1970 after it snowed before but melted again before we could use it. Between then and 1978/9, we used it only once after a freak snowfall one year in mid spring. 1970s winters were mild, friend. No ifs, no buts.
Just like summer 1976 was very similar to 2018. 2018 was not unprecedented in history, just unprecedented in your lifetime.
On 20 Dec 2018, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
*loco... Breezy with some showers yesterday but not as crazy mostly cloudy 6 deg dewpoint 4 at 1.39pm
On 20 Dec 2018, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Carlow weather talking of a ssw possibility end of mth here, polar vortex would be nice too, plus all the other ingredients to make it chill, dont ya just love weather watching its as Craig said Interesting. The amount of panic family tried to place on me last Jan as my due date approached and really all it did was send them more logo than me, all you can do is prepare then chill out and enjoy and apply logic and reason to the mix too. We got a fair share here last winter, if it does it again im going to throw myself in the snow this year instead of walking like a penguin 🤣 like Craig said Winter only starting, so enjoy the rollercoaster of the season 😁
On 19 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Interesting watching. Look at the uncertainty for the Jetstream for xmas day! Following then seems to be frost and fog weather (looking forward to that) but a discussion also about the SSW which leads us initio January (this is quite an early SSW btw) ===
https://youtube.com/watch?v=spiKPL4LXfU
On 19 Dec 2018, NewForest wrote:
I've seen stratospheric warming is on the cards over the next week or so, which would tie in nicely with a switch in weather and temperatures. It seems to be producing a high pressure as a result over the UK but with a southerly (warmer) flow of air being pulled up from the South. I think it would be interesting to see if the potential development of the high pressure ties into the European/Scandinavian high to give a beast from the east... Any thoughts guys?
On 19 Dec 2018, Fred wrote:
So Piers had last 3rd Nov spot on. If he has Xmas onwards correct...it needs a massive model change. Nov forecasts almost changed overnight.....3 days and counting...I hope he has it nailed
On 19 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Mark Hall - Point taken re: civility but this writing off the whole winter before solstice in a one off comment from someone who has never commented here before is trollish behaviour. Happens all the time on weather forums and has happened here year after year. It is disruptive and provocative to write off a season that has hardly begun unless there are reasons presented (West qbo, Nino state etc). Its Dec 19th only & whilst yes we could miss out (UK can & so often does) you only have to look at the state of the n. Hem atmosphere to see we are in with a fine chance with 3 months to go. Last year it snowed in Berks in Dec, Jan, Feb and March with 3 decent spells - and this is not snow County believe me! A Jan 1881 would be fine by me if that's all we get 😂
On 19 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Glenn one final thing "Lefties are the lowest of the low." You do know Piers is a leftie right? The main centrality here is that solar and lunar modulations affect our weather not co2. We come from a broad political spectrum. The lowest of the low are those who promote falsehoods such as cagw like Al Gorythm. Whilst sadly many on the left has drank the climate catastrophe cool aid, it is not all Lefties. Don't allow yourself to fall into such binary thinking and alienate those who have more in common with you than you think.
On 19 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Also writing off winter before solstice is lunacy. Do we write the whole summer off in mid June? Of course not. Long way to go with, as we saw this year, snow opportunities possible all the way into April (1908/1958/1981/2008 (yes a 50 Yr repeat in the mix there)). Last century the real memorable winters were 1916-17/46-47/62-63/78-79 they were long winters. Not so many is it? The cold bits of the 1980s weren't that prolonged by comparison despite for example the brutal Siberian weather of Jan 1987. Worth remembering that 09-10 was colder for some northern parts than 62-63. Jan 2010 is right up there in terms of snow depth. As for now we have a ssw starting and who knows how that will end up in the coming months. Lots to be positive about. Its not even solstice after all and most winters don't get going until after.
On 19 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Glenn - the first mind winter was not 87/88. Ron has often written off the poor winters of the early to mid 1970s, soon followed by a pretty solid decade into the mid 80s. Further back the 1920s & 30s were also quite poor. The mid 90s may have been poor for the south but up north they were not. Snow is the exception but the rule for the south and many an LIA winter going back to even Pepys time was poor for snow despite the brutal winters then. We often just have a freeze for a week and that's about it. The 40s - 60s were an aberration in many ways. Read this from Paul Homewood===
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/12/28/the-myth-of-snowy-winters/ === the facts don't back up your assertions, although locally its not unheard of for snow to miss some areas - even Dec 2010 (0.1°C off all time record) was not snowy for all....cont....
On 19 Dec 2018, Glenn wrote:
DAVID (YORKSHIRE) The claim about no mild winters before 1987/88 was from my own observations. I have been observing the seasons since 1983 when I was just 7 years old and from what I can remember every winter before 1987/88 was cold and snowy.
On 19 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, cloudy morning - contrary to MO forecast - with a light S’ly wind which became a bit stronger as the day went on, much sunnier afternoon and temps slowly creeping up to 5˚, still at that by 9.30pm.
On 19 Dec 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Glenn your of course entitled to your opinion, however please stop with the bizzare claims. No mild winters before 87/88 where do you get this info from??
On 19 Dec 2018, Glenn wrote:
I AM NOT A TROLL!! I am just someone who likes traditional British winter weather and when that doesn't happen I have a right to be p****d off. The very first mild winter was 1987/88 and ever since we have suffered with loads of them. Mild winters did not exist in Britain before 1987/88. When it comes to trolls I would however rather be a troll than a leftie. Lefties are the lowest of the low.
On 19 Dec 2018, out_east wrote:
So relieved to get away from the freezing east for a week or so.
From what I read you islanders are very unhappy about a more temperate winter+there's very little snow in the alps now since the last snowfall.
Well.
You should come to the freezing Baltic states or Russia.
In the northern sector (SPB) it's been relatively warmer because of a procession of Scaninavian blocking highs, mostly over now, being replaced with snow.
But:-
In Moscow it's pretty cool right now, down to nr -20C, when loads of people were talking rubbish about there being no snow this December.
Ahum , winter started very early in Ural this year, ie. anywhere east of Kirov.
So, if you are getting warm weather in UK and France, with green grass, count yourselves lucky.
It's not going to last.
Remember the chaos you get there with 1 flake of snow.
When our nice continental cold comes to hit you, it's not going to be very funny.
Just saying.
On 19 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
I see that Glenn Troll is descending into a parody of itself.
On 18 Dec 2018, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Wind outside woke the tiny one up at 3.30 a.m and we stayed awake for a good hour listening to it, some heavier showers too by that point and into the morning. Cooler as the showers moved through by late mornjng and 5 deg feeling cooler now at 11pm quiet out before more rain forecasted for the morning.
On 18 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, already very windy from the S and getting stronger all the time, reaching the same intensity as on Saturday, rain starting at 9 and continuing with very heavy bursts from time to time until 5pm, pretty amazing. Wind abating by early evening, temperature down to 6˚, brilliant sunshine forecast for tomorrow.
On 18 Dec 2018, Fred wrote:
Glenn
Maybe you have a valid point if it was Feb 18th......not now. So we’ll dissect your super mild Winter LRF come Mar 1st....fair game?
On 18 Dec 2018, Glenn wrote:
(SANDERS HAMER) I know exactly how you feel about this winter. Its December 18th and I am extremely disappointed with the whole situation. It promised so much and has given so little. I certainly don't think there will be any snow this winter for us southerners. Oh well, better luck next winter.
On 18 Dec 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Bill fair enough. Moving on I see no reason to back down from 4th to 10th of Jan being significantly wintry. Considerable warming way above the pole looks likely to peak at Christmas. Give it two weeks to have a knock on affect through the layers and waves and reverse the current trend. Then the UK should see a significant cold spell. Perhaps even more blocked further down the line.
On 18 Dec 2018, Mark Hall, Herts wrote:
Calm down Craig, don't go snow blind in this weak blizzard of LIA discontent. There is nothing wrong with debating with people who hold different views. Plus, if done properly, it is educational.
As discussed previously .....banning, binning, proscribing and no-platforming are what the AGW side have been doing to us for decades. So why ape their methods?
Plus, you have made a big thing about the need for civility in the past, so casting casual insults is a bit hypocritical.
Sceptics will be vindicated by a cooling global climate which is inevitable. We don't need to take the low road.
I don't expect this comment to be published.
On 18 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
"times fast running out for winter 2018/2019.only 2 weeks to go till december ends." What a contradiction in terms. Astronomical winter begins Friday and lasts for at least 3 months (hey this year's Beasty clearly didn't happen and has already been 'adjusted' from memory) but those unable to hold two competing thoughts simultaneously say winter is over - after a weekend of severe winter hazards. Are you able to walk and talk at the same time? Anyone foolish enough to write such tripe from this point on without putting in the effort of some valid reasoning will go straight to the bin. Life is too short to suffer fools or to feed trolls.
On 18 Dec 2018, sanders hamer wrote:
times fast running out for winter 2018/2019.only 2 weeks to go till december ends. and its been week on week of rain and storms here in lancashire preston.looking like 2013 , 2014 ,2015, all over again .looks like its going to end above for the month of december.very very disapointed .and theres only 10 weeks to go till winter ends on the 1 march not looking good. another 2015 and 2016 winter sorry forks. still theres summer 2019 to look foward to roll on summer.
On 17 Dec 2018, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Yellow wind warning here and it does sound windy n gusty out, a lot of water across fields I noticed when out today not so much heavy rain here tonight though other counties on a yellow.
On 17 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, slight frost, sunny start but clouding over soon after, light S’ly breeze which developed into a fresh wind by afternoon, temps rising to 6˚ over the course of the day, very damp, drizzle by late evening, wet day announced for tomorrow courtesy of Atlantic Low.
On 17 Dec 2018, BillS (N E Wales) wrote:
-David Yorkshire Ok so you were referring to England My location borders with So I didn’t make my comment based on no experience. Your “ discussion” appeared to be just difference in views between you. I was trying to make the point that being an island the weather can be very different whether For example you refer to 2009 and 2010 as being snowy . They were not snowy in the north west cold maybe yes but not snowy. So we differ in views on snowy December 2009,for England not Uk
On 17 Dec 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Pretty sure it is clear we were discussing snowy Decembers for England and not winters for the uk.
On 17 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
PADDY: Aye, we had a proper blizzard for several hours with local power cuts. We still have snow lying despite a slow thaw. Damp foggy dreich this morning.
On 16 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
Now weather report yesterday because we had a power cut that lasted almost 24 hours, it was pretty wild stuff, gale force SSE winds all day, very strong in the afternoon, the noise in the tunnel where I was working was ear shattering, lots of power lines down. Today much calmer and with great sunny spells, 1˚C at 7.30, max temp 4˚ and back down to 1˚ by 9pm, frost on car roof, winds more SW’ly today. Ron, snow with you as expected, I see.
On 16 Dec 2018, Bill S ( NE Wales) wrote:
No snow here yesterday just plain cold with occasional rain in a biting SE wind. Max 1.5c until about 5-6pm as Deirdre’s centre moved in temp increased to 7c by end of night with a change in wind to SW( very gusty for a time late evening) . Average temps today (6c max),rain late afternoon damp tonight light winds. With regards snowy winters , it depends where in UK you are and the type of winter . E.g here , last winter was not particularly snowy our heaviest fall was mid December which was predominantly on a NW trajectory.
On 16 Dec 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Glenn - 1995 and 2005 Yes, the others I would not describe, as "snowy" Decembers from my memory anywhere in England. Could be wrong. Since 2006 we have had, at least 2 snowy Decembers, 2009 and 2010. So I cannot personally see, what has changed statistically?
On 16 Dec 2018, Glenn wrote:
DAVID (YORKSHIRE) There was quite a few December's before 2006 that were snowy. There was 1995, 1999, 2001, 2003 and 2005.
On 15 Dec 2018, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Rain and wind and more rain we are offically soggy underfoot, orange countrywide warning for wind was downgraded here to a yellow for wind n rain and remained orange on the south n eastish coast. Back to duvay and resting to rid the first proper flu in 20mths 🤧 winter is only just getting started plenty of time yet for contrasting weather. 6 deg at 10pm seems to have tailed off out there and moved through.
On 15 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
yup, dully arrived this afternoon and several cm of wet snow lying here at 140 metres by 1700hrs
On 14 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, strong, raw and cold SW’ly wind blowing all day courtesy of the Scandinavian High, cloudy & showery morning, drier afternoon with some nice bits of sunshine, max temp 4˚, down to 2˚ by 10pm, the air smells of snow even though there isn’t any forecast for our area, but as Craig says, yellow & amber wind, snow & ice warning for inland areas.
On 14 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID ( Yorkshire) Even GFS is now going for a cold Xmas period now ( hope that doesn't put a hex on it !) Norfolk is a warmist enclave apparently so I don't think you'll get an answer. Jings only mid December and a blizzard already--only Jan, Feb and Mar. to go for Glenn.
On 14 Dec 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
All coming together nicely Craig. Glenn you have not answered my question??
On 14 Dec 2018, C View wrote:
For those looking for winter looks like a good dose of it coming tomorrow. For us in Scotland 20cm snow on high ground freezing rain and gale force winds. For Sunday in the mountains hail snow and thunder.
On 14 Dec 2018, @Piers_Corbyn <=twitter FOLLOW! wrote:
THANKS FOR TOP COMMS Craig and all. NOW *XMAS* GIFT TIME GO TO HOME PAGE Right-Hand-Side FAB DEALS UP TO 67%OFF - GET THAT SPECIAL GIFT FOR YOURSELF OR FRIEND - All-Winter-Now-inc-all-updates And 45d inc 30d great special deals for 6m/12m. As always Extra forecast extensions are given for any overlaps with existing subscriptions.
On 14 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Yellow and Amber warnings out for much of the UK with very rare freezing rain in the mix (Central belt of Midlands up to Scotland). Its an R3 so may be slightly amped up from forecast. Be careful. Looking at WA the high pressure is sat over Scandi rather than Germany so we did not get the mild but got the settled for this period. Later in the forecast looking good. // Models showing a good chance of a white Xmas although depends on precipitation + cold on the day. Looks to warm before dropping around new year. Waxing and waning but no lock on...yet. Full moon 22/12 New moon 6/1. Likely SSW brewing around Xmas also with a possible 2nd to follow. Polar vortex will be under duress with increased blocking. Have to say looks like a special start to 2019 in the offing. A cold spell to hit in Jan offers some very low temps. My energy bills with the added green taxes will not be pretty. Nor will food prices in Europe. A Winter of Discontent as Fred has said.
On 14 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Yellow and Amber warnings out for much of the UK with very rare freezing rain in the mix (Central belt of Midlands up to Scotland). Its an R3 so may be slightly amped up from forecast. Be careful. Looking at WA the high pressure is sat over Scandi rather than Germany so we did not get the mild but got the settled for this period. Later in the forecast looking good. // Models showing a good chance of a white Xmas although depends on precipitation + cold on the day. Looks to warm before dropping around new year. Waxing and waning but no lock on...yet. Full moon 22/12 New moon 6/1. Likely SSW brewing around Xmas also with a possible 2nd to follow. Polar vortex will be under duress with increased blocking. Have to say looks like a special start to 2019 in the offing. A cold spell to hit in Jan offers some very low temps. My energy bills with the added green taxes will not be pretty. Nor will food prices in Europe. A Winter of Discontent as Fred has said.
On 14 Dec 2018, Bill S ( N E Wales) wrote:
The last week around here started very wet off the Irish Sea , showers finally let up on Monday morning . Mainly dry from then with lighter winds backing from west north west to south east by end of week. Average temps except Thursday /Friday with max at 3.5c . Rainfall now 59mm for the month. Forecast stormy weekend , we might have some short lived snow here , since a SE is the best chance of a snow with the long fetch overland. Having had time (recuperating from an op) it’s been good to read up on some interesting stuff is posted on the weather action.wordpress as well as some of the latest presentations by Piers and wild encourage others to do do. I guess though there a fairly mature audience here do no preaching from me. I would be interested to have some feed back from Piers as to any thoughts on start ofSC25 it’s duration , strength and whether there’s any projected changes from earlier this year particularly magnetic that may be changing the weather now or in near future.
On 14 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Dec 2018 to Saturday 12 Jan 2019:
The start of this period is most likely to be unsettled with the continuation of wet and windy weather pushing in from the west. Through the first half of January there is an increasing likelihood for it to turn colder bringing the increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost and fog. Some snow is also likely with temperatures expected to fall below normal. However, there is uncertainty in the timing of this change to turn colder, and it could come before the end of December.
Updated: 15:03 on Fri 14 Dec 2018 GMT
On 14 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Latest MetO update === UK Outlook for Wednesday 19 Dec 2018 to Friday 28 Dec 2018:
Cloud and rain should clear east early on Wednesday with sunshine and blustery showers following. The showers most frequent in the northwest and west where there is the risk of hail and thunder with some hill snow in the north. Some patchy fog may be slow to clear on Thursday with fewer showers and lighter winds. It is then likely to remain mostly unsettled through the rest of the period with spells of rain and strong winds. The heaviest rain will be in the west with eastern parts staying generally drier. With the unsettled weather temperatures are likely to be around or a little above average. However, there is a small chance of a colder and shower spell developing during Christmas week.
On 13 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30 and, again, for the whole day. Mostly cloudy with only few glimpses of the sun, some very heavy showers during the morning, dry afternoon, strong and raw SE’ly wind at first, gradually turning into the SW. Stars shining in the cloud holes tonight.
On 13 Dec 2018, steven collier wrote:
First geoengineering experiment to dim the sun on track for 2019
Harvard scientists will attempt to replicate the climate-cooling effect of volcanic eruptions with a world-first solar geoengineering experiment set for early 2019.
The roll out of them using technology/spraying to block UV from heating up the earth is their answer to the world actually cooling by itself. They'll take the credit for the cooling and sing themselves as the heroes steering the narrative the way they want it, still insisting that global warming is only being held at bay due to their genius ideas and applications of Geoengineering, it's also a means to keep the $$$ coming in "if we don't get more funding for our spraying efforts we'll have to stop before were done fixing the climate and the sky will immediately fall"
On 13 Dec 2018, Fred wrote:
Very interesting. MetO warmists say mild and westerly, models say blocked and cold surface feed, Piers? Neither so where are we headed???
On 13 Dec 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
UK Outlook for Friday 28 Dec 2018 to Friday 11 Jan 2019:
The most likely scenario for the end of December is for periodically unsettled Atlantic weather to move across the UK from the west. However, there is an increased likelihood that the milder, Atlantic weather will become short-lived and a colder and more showery northerly or northwesterly regime will become established across the UK. Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood of a return to colder than average conditions with an increase in the likelihood of overnight frost and fog, as well as some snow.
Updated: 15:06 on Thu 13 Dec 2018 GMT
On 13 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
GLENN, shock and horror, not even mid December yet and at least one warmist troll thinks there will be no snow in the remainder of December, January and February--amazing eh?
On 12 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30 and for the rest of the day right up to 10pm, strong S’ly wind and cloudy all day but dry, so was able to get on with work that the recent frequent rains made impossible.
On 12 Dec 2018, Tony ex sub wrote:
C view I've always stated when the USA gets bad weather we get mild .....so far this December I've seen nothing to change my mind. ......the UK seems to be stuck in the occasional bad weather year after year .....deff not an lia hete for me even piers struggles with uk predictions
On 12 Dec 2018, Mark Hall, Hertfordshire wrote:
With regard to the mildish weather: Don't our winters normally get going after Xmas anyway? Situated on the edge of Europe next to an Ocean would take the edge off many cold snaps.
Cooling trends like 1900-20 and 1960-80 took a while to get going, so 2020-40 will probably be a similar cycle.
At the moment, with the meridional jet stream dominating instead of a zonal pattern, there are massive polar incursions into North America and Chine. So the slack has to be taken up somewhere else, like Western Europe and temperate air masses are indeed being pulled up from the south.
Whoever gatekeepers these blogs, could you pull your finger out and release my New Futures postings about Brexit? The second one was definitely within modern safe space parameters. Thankyou, most humbly, in anticipation.
On 12 Dec 2018, C View wrote:
Dear All. There appears to be a very noticeable sense of disappoinent around on this thread due to a lack of "proper winter weather". Ever since December 2010 and Piers assurance that this would increasingly be the way of the future, people have let their expectations run riot. Keep the faith and look at rthe bigger picture, There has been a large expansion in the area of the Arctic covered by thick sea ice over the past eleven years. Nearly two thirds of the Arctic Ocean is now covered with ice more than two meters thick.There are plenty of places we can point at and see where the AGW theory is failing.
On 12 Dec 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Glenn - out of interest how many snowy Decembers have you seen before 2006 in the South East? I'm curious that's all.
On 12 Dec 2018, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Glenn earlier in January this year you said "There will not be any more snow in Southern Britain this winter, I am prepared to put money on this. January is not really a snow month in Britain. December is the main month for snow and thats gone now." So go ahead and write this winter off. The reverse psychology should kick in by Xmas 😂
On 12 Dec 2018, Glenn wrote:
The warmists are going to have a field day during winter 2018/19. So far December has turned out just like so many other December's since 2006. It could well be that February 2018 was the farewell snowfall for southern England. Its now dember 12th and time for snow is running out fast.
On 12 Dec 2018, M Lewis wrote:
Well both the Met Office (ITV, Channel 4 and Channel 5) and Meteogroup (BBC) are both forecasting a very wet and stormy rest of December. I would again urge residents of Carlisle, York, Cardiff, Bristol, Somerset etc to take action to ensure all pumping stations are fully working. Better safe than sorry!
Summary
Unsettled weather for the rest of December
Unsettled for the rest of December and into the new year, with potentially stormy and very wet weather through the Christmas period. Staying mild, with colder air more likely after Christmas.
On 11 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, all frost gone, cloudy all day with a light S’ly wind temps slowly rising until it reached 7˚ by 8.30pm. I’ll be happy when the real cold comes but in the meantime I’m equally happy to be able to work in relatively warm and snow-free conditions, always a lot to do to get everything in order before the winter. == Mark Fuller: wow, our last nasturtiums in the veg tunnel finally got hit by -4˚ on the 5th, geraniums got a beating as well before I put them in the shed but they’ll survive, fuchsias have lost their leaves long ago, lobelias long gone but we still had a few hardy rudbeckias outside before yesterday’s frost.
On 11 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
FRED; rest assured I am well aware of the inconsistencies of GFS and in fact I once coined the expression 'chimpanzee foot painting' to describe their chart graphics. It's just a reminder to those who criticise Piers if he doesn't get it quite right from weeks or months out.
On 10 Dec 2018, Fred wrote:
Ron
Forget the GFS at t384......never ever right....unless one of the 30 possible outcomes happens
On 10 Dec 2018, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, good ground frost which stayed in place all day, light NW’ly breeze, sunny morning, cloudier afternoon, max temp 2˚, down to -2˚ by 10pm under a clear sky.
On 10 Dec 2018, Mark Fuller wrote:
Yuletide is my favourite time of the year despite the predictably mild wet Atlantic dominated horrible weather. In my north Liverpool back-yard the following plants are not only alive, but still producing some flowers: fuchias, nasturtiums, lobelia and geraniums. Ivy is also slowly spreading too. Much as I love my plants, I'd rather be looking out at snow as we approach Christmas. Fat chance.
On 10 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Took just a wee bit longer than I predicted yesterday, but sure enoug,h GFS is now going for southwesterlies on Xmas day
On 10 Dec 2018, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
A few interesting factoids:
1) For the first time since I started monitoring arctic ice diagrams (around ten years), Hudsons Bay has frozen faster than average. Diagrams at www.nsidc.org. Plenty of ice for polar bears next spring then...
2) The wildly exuberant snow depths forecasted by computer models at www.snow-forecast.com for the weekend blizzard have failed to deliver, depths being 50-70% of what was predicted at best. Another round of over-exuberant predictions made also for this Friday onwards. The snow fell where expected but nowhere is remotely close to 150cm new snow yet.
3) Snow is currently mostly absent below 1000m in Switzerland, so no signs yet of 'harsh winter'. The record depths at altitude is in fact a sign of warmth, as snow falls most at temperatures at or around freezing, not at -15C or below.
4) Short of unexpected warmth however, the Christmas/New Year should see good winter holiday conditions for most, a welcome relief after a few poor starts in recent y
On 10 Dec 2018, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine// just tuned ion you tube channel and unprecedented snowfall in North Carolina 20inches and comments from there saying never seen snow this bad ior this early
On 09 Dec 2018, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Think he is on a wind up Ron. 4th - 10th of Jan the watch period. Just my mousings.
On 09 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Oops-- Meteobeeb models now going for a spell of cold easterlies on their Countryfile forecast. Might even get the odd snow flurry in Norfolk.
On 09 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
Yes Glenn, 90% of the winter still lies ahead and it hasn't snowed in Norfolk yet.
On 09 Dec 2018, Glenn wrote:
It's funny how things change in 10 months. February 2018 was real winter in Britain, but so far December has turned out just like the December's of 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016. Not a single flake this winter and it's already December 9th.
On 09 Dec 2018, Bill S ( N E Wales) wrote:
What a miserable wet and windy few days. Dreich , torrential showers at times on a strong to gale force westerly. its like looking through a fishmongers window! Get little sleep when it’s so inscesant. The joys of the “Cheshire gap” and Liverpool Bay. Quieter as this morning progresses. Is there any relief from this? Some other sites hinting at a big change in a few weeks. J Bastardi says a SSW around/before Christmas. What’s in store for us????
On 09 Dec 2018, Ron Greer wrote:
As of the 11.00 hrs on Sunday 9th Dec, GFS is clearly pointing to a substantial outbreak of polar maritime air over the UK 22-25th December. BUT we could reasonably expect, on past experience, that this forecast will change to warm south westerlies by 15.oo hrs.
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