On 29 May 2020, out_east wrote:
"https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2020/02/07/"
I have a friend of a friend who actually runs the Baltic grid network.*
The note at the end of this post should be read as a warning.
Just locally is the main interconnect undersea cable that connects Finland to the Baltic states.
Locally also is one of the biggest wind farms in the country, with giant blades.
Actual power dellivery to theoretical capacity from the 3MW low energy density wind fans never exceeds 10-20% real.
The intermittency causes massive frequency regulation problems (here I see peaks & troughs from anything around 222-238V). We see anything from ZERO (right now 3 weeks of scandinavian anticylone), to gale force winds.
The interesting elephant in the room, - most of the French industry is being pressured by Macretin to turn over to electric vehicles, or no subsidy to "rescue" the car industry. You can see how well that works at Nissan SPAIN!
Do all that,* - the grid will COLLAPSE.
100% Certain GRID
On 22 Feb 2020, colin wrote:
hi all brain dead boris spends 1.2 billion on a weather computer but nothing on flood defences - the new super computer can forecast weather up to 5 days in advance , wow - who is making money out of this boris ? is it chineese.made pc. - for thousands of years people have eaten animals in china and no problems before genetic engineering came along. its well known Wuhan has the highest number of warfare labs in china. put 2 + 2 = 4
On 08 Feb 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
88 years ago was 1962. I've been, finally, doing some proper look backs and, especially with the QBO flip to East and the signs of La Nina emerging this year, next winter looks long or a substantial cold period in the works. If watch a few things. The Atlantic profile is one. It's scuppered a few winters of late to say the least. Two is March into April "The mean temperature [2013] was just 2.2C (36F) - more than 3C colder than the long-term monthly average. Last month matched the average temperature in March 1947 - only March 1962 was colder at 1.9C (35F)." [BBC]. Mar 13 kicked in mid month, albeit helped by the SSW much earlier in Yr. Don't worry exact dates just watch for poss. cold both months. There is so much cold trapped waiting to be unleashed. 88yrs is a strong beat. The super Niño of 15-16 has taken time to disapate, throwing pockets of ocean heat up. 2030s AMO will recall wain, but globally we are at the Oscillation phase. *muppets not mullets in last comm 😂
On 08 Feb 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
... I mean what on earth? I cannot fathom why someone would take us from what Piers called the 4th Reich [EU] which he's spot on for the undemocratic authorian morons that they are, just listen to Guy Verplonkstain craving more anti-democracy and power, to be slaves of the most undemocratic body in the known solar system - the UN. Maurice Strong would be wetting himself at what we'd just committed to with the #NetZero 2035 push to end gas at the pump and the home. The gulf between the people and the mullets is larger than ever. We can only hope DJT forces a hard reset because I can't see any other person on the planet 🌏 doing anything. The only #NetZero I see is politicians.
https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2020/02/07/boris-goes-full-speed-ahead-for-britains-economic-suicide/
https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2020/02/06/the-governments-eco-edict-that-all-new-cars-be-electric-in-15-years-is-doomed-to-backfire-because-old-bangers-can-be-greener-says-john-nai
On 08 Feb 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Nasty active period of weather inbound over the next few days, particularly Sunday with strong winds forecast and snow over north, although flakes possibly anywhere in the coming days. I can't access the forecasts and can't find the Feb forecast so unsure if there's an R period however there is an earth facing coronal hole, planetary K index has been at 4 on and off for past 24 hrs and the AP indexis at highest level since late Oct. It seems in low solar periods it doesn't take much inertia to move the systems. Take care all. Heed the warnings, esp. if you're near the S coast where an Amber warning is in force. [Piers if you catch this you check my sub - thx] // No sign of meaninful snow for now down south but have a feeling (based on history) that the cold locked up north - strongest sea ice for a decade - is going to lead to potent outbreaks // in other news what the heck is Bojo playing at? He has just offered up the world's most stupid suicide note....
On 25 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Personally & for the Sth I think this meteorological winter will be a mild one, but spring historically, especially after warm winters (& cold periods in late autumn) do hold much potential. Offhand I know of 1908, 1935, 1975, 1981, 2008, 2013 & 2018 where significant late snow has fallen - & quite a few recently, despite some v/warm winters. The wavelengths of the jetstream can be quite favourable in spring. This solar cycle is 11y 1m old & v. close to ending. April 2008 is our most recent example + easy to quantify with satellite solar + terrestrial observations. SC23 ended in Dec 08. What happened that year was sig. snow in Apr + Oct, followed by Feb 09, Dec 09-Jan 10 (longer for Nth+Eur) & Dec 10 in short order. If the next 16 months doesn't have something of that significance it does not mean it's global warming, it would suggest something else besides the sun that is muting the signal. Considering 71% of earth is water I'd start there. Carbon Dioxide = #GasofLife
On 16 Jan 2020, Piers Corbyn wrote:
GO TO NEW BLOG!
On 15 Jan 2020, C View wrote:
Shocking disgraceful and completely off the scale lying all over the MSM news programmes today trumpeting warmest decade ever, we are all doomed etc. Gems such as , drought and heatwave the new normal for Australia. Anyone capable of looking at some statistical data will very quickly see that the last fifty years in Oz has been wetter than the 50 years before that. Funny kind of permanent drought that. I could go on and on and on .........and on.
On 15 Jan 2020, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, strong & cold SW’ly wind continuing, 3rd day in a row now, but turning quite sunny for much of the day with a max temp of 6˚, clouding over towards evening and feeling slightly warmer even though down to 5˚ by 9pm. == Rich, even in our northern parts, snowdrops are showing white flower buds and daffodil leaves a couple of inches out of the ground, that is earlier than usual. Heard on the radio this morning that the river Dee had burst its banks in town, not much rain here in the last few days but plenty of it further inland yesterday.
On 15 Jan 2020, Ronan wrote:
I just came across this which is a good explanation of what is wrong with greenhouse theory .https://whyclimatechanges.com/impossible/
On 15 Jan 2020, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Rich as winter months go, Feb always interests me the most. It often delivers extremes of some kind. Very Cold or very mild or the occasional fierce storm. The sun moving into the Northern hemisphere more, does seem to flick the switch weatherwise. Add the start of an LIA into the mix and anything is possible! Glenn could even end up ice skating down the Norfolk Broads or on the other hsnd, sunbathing at Great Yarmouth ❄️🌴
On 15 Jan 2020, Rich wrote:
Very wet again in SE Cambs, thoughts of drought well behind us, bulbs pushing up, snowdrops out, Narcisi swelling, which should be out next 2 weeks.
After a mild Dec, CET for Jan currently at +3.9, so far so mild again, but fingers crossed for drier weather. With an ever rising warming sun in Feb, spring will be in the air again, something to look forward to!
The LIA doesn't seem so bad, it just needs to balance out the rainfall elements a little!
On 14 Jan 2020, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, still a very sharp SW’ly wind bringing returning polar air to pummel my face while out with the dog, quite a bit of sunshine during the morning, max temp 3˚, light rain after 3pm under a dense cloud cover, clear again by evening, beautiful starry sky as the moon had not yet risen, wind a bit more W’ly and still strong, 2˚ by 9.30pm.
On 14 Jan 2020, Ron Greer wrote:
Out_East always handy to have the facts to back insults whoever you are aiming at. Your predictions don't fit in with standard models and that's fair enough on this site. Time will tell. As it is, it would appear that this Atlantic winter we are having in Britain and Ireland will continue with westerly polar maritime outbreaks providing short cooler spells. No sign of any beast from the east scenario
On 14 Jan 2020, out_east wrote:
I meant Glenn the pet W.A troll, NOT Craig.
On 14 Jan 2020, claude grayson wrote:
at least you two are really on the same page. down here we had another cool nite .0600 5deg, 92%hum. has been up to 24 during day but mostly hanging round a max of 20/21,and they are blaming the ozzy fires for cooling effect..
On 14 Jan 2020, @Piers_Corbyn London Chief Forecaster wrote:
CITIZENS! More great comms and discussion thanks. +=+=+=+ Craig understands weather very well btw ++++++++ NEWS ALL - FEB 45d inc30d forecasts release 15 Jan and we have a new 3-FOR-1 offer for 12month sub (ie 12 @ charge for only 4) so get in there www.WeatherAction.com RHS of home page. Existing overlaps with any other subs get extended access credit. THANK YOU. ++++=== Homepage also carries new access (after old access cut) to vid of my presentation in the Bundestag enviro committee and 4 "ClimateTruth-MasterClass" vids and link to my Univ of Reading Debate Soc article ==== Thanks PC
On 14 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
@Out_East if you're going to insult me " I look at these comments from Craig who clearly doesn't understand weather" could you at least quote me so I and everyone reading knows where I am apparently going wrong. I'm quite aware of sudden turn arounds in weather I mention them often and have over the past decade of commenting here. I often quote others for discussion, it doesn't mean I agree but they are something to think on. It would be helpful if you could point where I'm going wrong. I agree an SSW is possible, nothing definitive as yet but it's showing and as for seasonal displacement I said "Is Out East onto something with the slide of the seasons these past few years?" Yes it's nothing unusual in Climate history but is for recent years. Which is what I have said, although it's possible that wasn't clear. Asking for a friend 😉
On 14 Jan 2020, Istvan ilyes wrote:
The winter of 1947 started on the 25th of January. Before then there was a warm period on the 14th and 15th of January. There is still time for a big freeze heading our way.
On 14 Jan 2020, out_east wrote:
Adding to the comment of yesterday...
SSW event coming soon.
I look at these comments from Craig who clearly doesn't understand weather.
I have witnessed many many times a 30C change in atmospheric temperature within hours.
In summer time it's often around large thunderstorms, which can rain down golf ball sized hail.
(In 1 region of France it damaged more than 15 000 cars and vans, they are still changing roof panels on them 4 years after the event).
One of the features of the next 10 days is a strong cold wave in the USA. (remember Chicago 2019? people DIE of cold), and then another strong northerly to arrive from a new JS orientation.
All it takes is a late Jan-Early Feb SSW event and you have SDF in France dying of cold in the streets, and snow all the way to North Africa.
The seasons are displaced, - up to months off from what people with their short memories term "normal".
There is no "normal" what you have is "weather".
On 13 Jan 2020, out_east wrote:
Snow chaos coming to the UK.
Won't be long now! (inc Northern France btw)
On 13 Jan 2020, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, already quite windy from the SW and really getting going by midday, pretty wild though not as strong as last Tuesday 7th, mostly light rain setting in around 3pm, max temp 6˚, down to 5˚ by 9pm in a still powerful & keen wind.
On 13 Jan 2020, claude grayson wrote:
have just been reading up re Taal volcano .do us well to remember Pinatubo and that it lowered the temps abt 1C. and its in your hemisphere.anyone recall the weather from 1992 on.
On 13 Jan 2020, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Crazy windy this morning squally showers of rain hail and even the odd snowflake, wind increasing in strength towards midday/lunchtime when accompanied by heavier rain seems to have calmed now at 1.47pm more normal winter wind, very cold out now, Orange wind warning to cease at 3pm I believe so that should have passed through now, back to my day off Netflix and pickled spicy beetroot jar from the summer :-) ps Craig's comments always such a great craic and informative read on a gloomy day, cheers Craig ;)
On 13 Jan 2020, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Weather constantly battling so far this year flipping from chilly to milder airflow mixing it up, we've had some fine mild days, fab and clear on the 3rd great to get outside, dry enough tho more cloud to continue outside 4th and 5th & back to windy and wet on the 6th moving west to east with partial clearing by lunchtime 9 deg. Breezy n mild with s-sw winds on 7th occasional rain 13 deg. Another good day on the 8th mild ish to start, dry with some sunny intervals, much cooler by eve. showers with a sleety mix.
Thurs.9th cold start patchy frozen snow on the veg plot tarp. & in parts around the place 2 deg at 10.30 a.m ene light wind partly sunny then cloud. Fri 10th mostly dry after cool start rising to 8-9 deg outside, out with the titchy one potting up strawberry plants, windy with showers before dark. Too cloudy for the Wolf Moon Lunar eclipse. Alternating again windy n wet Saturday mostly dry with sunny spells Sunday & light drizzle by eve.
On 13 Jan 2020, Fred wrote:
Anyone got access to March and April yet? Piers why the delay to March? When are you releasing the 75 day outlook?
On 12 Jan 2020, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, not much cloud and turning into a really bright winter’s day, so great to be out in the light, every such day is much appreciated in view of how much cloud and rain we’ve had at the backend and even in January so far, max temp 4˚, clouding over towards evening, 1˚ by 9pm but still plenty of places where the frost has stayed. We have a yellow wind warning for tomorrow afternoon.
On 12 Jan 2020, claude grayson wrote:
Ronan,so right .when it hits it is pos it will be catastrophic.Why? we as humans are prone to not ready ourselves,weve forgotten the boyscouts motto,Be prepared. i sometimes dont think it will be any worse than previous events but due to our lack of mental preparedness,it will cause panic. we down in NZ ,had a snow storm, abt 3y ago that I watched from 25-30k ,progress through a gap in the ranges and follow the range N,that dumped nearly a M of snow.over 2days.no one was prepared,for long power outages etc.it can happen without much warning. people forget the past,[the reason driving CC] its just a repeat of a cycle. we had a very wet ywinter 4y ago flooded the road 3times but the last 2y are dry ,1500mm,instead of 17-1900mm+.Why?.doesnt cold equate to dry..hot to wet ...how Piers does what he does,is amazing considering how complicated the systems are.
On 12 Jan 2020, Richard .T wrote:
Hmm so little faith patience is always needed in the UK for Snow always has been as we are near a warm Atlantic ,but we do and will continue to get snow and some will be great falls some not so great its cyclical ,Craig posts some great stuff and i thank him for that as im on that wavelength ,
I had snow here in the North east of England on December 15th 2019 it wasn't great but enough for me to get the car out with Winter tyres on and take some lovely pictures , keep the faith as in 2013 snow can linger or fall well into late March.
On 12 Jan 2020, Ron Greer wrote:
this is the first snow here since just before Halloween--what a radical change in the world climate since then--what's gone wrong?
On 12 Jan 2020, Paul (sub) SE UK wrote:
I'm still trying to get up to speed on all of this (and it feels like it could take a lifetime!) but do we know what the weather trends were before the last LIA? (I assume we are referring to the period a few hundred years ago when the Thames froze over as a LIA? (The Maunder Minimum??)) Did I read further down this page that they had 'The Belgian Warm Winds' creating a roasting summer?
On 12 Jan 2020, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID( Yorkshire) I agree with your iconic summary of Glenn's memory span. Woke up to an Xmas card scene today and light snow still falling. Quite a radical change in the GFS prediction for later in the month.
On 12 Jan 2020, Ronan wrote:
I would like to add an observation re Mini Iceage.
Years ago (4-6) There was a commentary/article from Piers on the Mini Ice age. He mentioned that even though extremly cold winters are it's signature (my phrasing) there were also mild winters. I came across the website in 2012. I was only starting to get into the electrical properties of the solar system etc.having read Planet X comets and earth changes by J McCanney and articles on SOTT. What I have observed on winter snow fall since about 2000 (in E,G. West Sussex) was It was increasing. erratically Began with snow around Easter. (?) then earlier and earlier and around 2005-7 some snow before Xmas. Then big hit in Dec 2010. This was between 2 eclipses. What ever that event caused there was an interesting reset in the pattern. Like in increasing function that suddenly collapses. That smacks of instability. Hard to predict timewise and severity wise. Look at the J-stream instability now. When cold hits again it could hurt us badly.
On 11 Jan 2020, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
"something has gone drastically wrong with our climate since 2018" 🤣🤣🤣🌡️🔥☀️🌍
On 11 Jan 2020, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
A whopping 11˚C at 7.30, that’s a 13˚ difference from yesterday morning, strong SW’ly wind, a little rain in the morning, sunshine every now and then during the dry afternoon, wind turning more into the W, 5˚ at 9.30pm, fairly clear sky with the moon shining bright among the clouds. Last night’s eclipse was off the menu as we had cloud cover. A few wallflowers out.
On 11 Jan 2020, Glenn wrote:
MARK FULLER: I agree 100%. Its funny that you have only got to go back 2 years to a time when snow existed in our part of the world. Something has gone drastically wrong with our climate since December 2018. The LIA is dead in the water.
On 11 Jan 2020, Mark Fuller wrote:
What the heck is going on with our climate in NW Europe? Winter struggles to manifest, summer plants and flowers still alive and even flourishing in mid January. I know about the 'beast from the east'. But that was an exception amidst non existent winters. Finding it hard to retain my belief in an impending LIA right now.
On 10 Jan 2020, claude grayson wrote:
hi Mark,im in the manawtu,nth is .new zealand.we are all gagged from an official,climate chg view. our media have said they wont publish any opposing view.. the ozzy are lucky that sky tv rubbishes the climate change lobby as only good ozzies can and do .
On 10 Jan 2020, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-2˚C at 7.30, great sunny morning, clouding over by midday, W’ly wind gradually moving into the SW and strengthening in the afternoon, really windy by night with intermittent drizzle, 5˚ at 10pm. == Craig, yes, thank you, that’s him, well done for your post, I’ll watch the videos again. There’s a man thinking for himself and outside the box, which is exactly what the globalist climate hoaxers don’t want, they’re trying to induce lockstep thinking in everyone and coaxing us into giving up civilisation voluntarily by scaring us with climate change, they know they haven’t got long before a critical mass of people wake up.
On 10 Jan 2020, Mark Hall wrote:
You might have said this before Claude, so apologies, but where in Australia are you? Not surprised at the diurnal temperature negligence. The BOM have been fiddling the temperature data egregiously for some time now. Jennifer Marohasy has had a good go at documenting this. I think it got her sacked from her University.
Anyway, great to hear your updates from Down Under.
On 10 Jan 2020, claude grayson wrote:
this morning one wonders if our met has posted the wrong pressure map. they changed the site and no longer post an easy to find hi/low temp forecast...one has the susp.because they figured it was going to get cooler.they only post the max. today at 6am its high cloud, 7 deg ,no wind,and at 0530ground fog abt 1m deep. far more like autumn... fruit trees are not ripening as early esp the wild cherryplums....a strange summer so far.
On 10 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Paddy - Alan Savory. I quickly did a post with 2 videos, including the TED talk === https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2020/01/10/watch-how-to-green-the-worlds-deserts-and-reverse-climate-change-allan-savory/
=== only discovered him last year, possibly through Beefy Farmer on twitter. Instead of looking to solutions like that we get zealotry and Hysteria against farting cows 😂 Definitely worth a watch to all reading here
On 09 Jan 2020, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, cloudy sky, frosty and totally still. It began thawing around 9 in the NW’ly breeze but not by much, we had a max temp of only 2˚. Brightening up to a sunny afternoon and clear evening with -2˚ by 9pm, the almost full moon shining bright & high, lunar eclipse tomorrow night at 7.10pm, hope th sky will be clear. == Craig, speaking of Matt Ridley, there is someone else who is older than him and whose name I have forgotten: he promotes regreening brown land by judiciously grazing cattle in a long enough rotation so that by the time they return to the same patch the grass there has regrown abundantly, he’s done Ted talks & there are lots of videos - ring a bell?
On 09 Jan 2020, Mark Hall wrote:
John Edgington,
I don't think you were objectively reading my comments if you concluded that they were making fun at the death and destruction caused by the wildfires. So for the record, I was aiming at virtue signalling thespians who spout nonsense about the climate and atmospheric CO2. Have a read through it again.
No one is denied a platform or fair opinion on this blog. It appears to be a pretty safe space for those who crave that sort of thing.
But you appear to think that my expression of an opinion is tantamount to disallowing the opinions of others. It really isn't you know, but you probably got "disapproved" and "disallowed" mixed up when you were triggered.
I will not suggest that you "wind your neck in", but you sound like you need to get over yourself.
On 09 Jan 2020, Fred wrote:
Until we see widespread cold for NW Europe AGW will win. Younger Dryas, LIA brought severe cold to NW Europe..generally...NOT record warmth. Now of interest, try to buy March / April forecast from a Piers...... it available yet....interesting
On 09 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Glenn - the decade is 9 days old last time I looked, how you can write off the next few months and the rest of the decade is extraordinary. It's only been less than 12 months since the last snow here, and the Beast for most of us in Mar 2018 (the cold temps broke several records). Tell you what. Let's revisit after next winter ends. If we remain snowless then, then maybe you have a point taking into account how the whole country fares because we could be snowmaggedon in the North with nowt in the south and vice-versa. I do think something is brewing, but time will tell.
On 09 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
There’s also the major problem of tree diseases like the Xylella fastidiosa ravaging citrus trees in the U.S. and olive groves in southern Italy. Imagine if some of the millions of dollars currently being squandered on politically-driven research into climate change could instead be directed towards the much more pressing and real problem of tree disease." === so going back to" gloves off" this is where I think we can make headway, not with the quasi religious XR etc, but with normal people. We have more in common than not, and rather than going guns ablazin' (with associated push back) we can make people listen and think. Times are changing. People are waking if you loom/listen despite the desperate clamour of those who know all is lost.
On 09 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
[quote] The woodlands we want are not closed-canopy forests of trees all the same age, but patchy woods with glades where oaks can spread their branches, while scrubby birch, hawthorn and rowan jostle with bracken and heather for sunlight, views can be glimpsed from hill tops and butterflies dance in the sunny clearings.[quote]
Also, it’s not a question of planting new trees but preserving some of the old ones we already have.
For example, it is quite ludicrous that American hardwood forests are being chopped down to be chipped and turned into “biofuel” and shipped across the Atlantic so that the Drax power station in Britain can meet its carbon emissions reductions targets.
On 09 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Dellers continues
"Let’s be clear: Greta Thunberg, the Democrats, and the rest of the green movement have zero credibility on the issue of trees and forest management or global greening generally.
Conservatives, on the other hand, can — and should — clean up on this issue and make it their own.
In a world where almost everyone seems to be obsessed with environmental fake news, here is a worthwhile and genuine green cause that conservatives can embrace and be seen to embrace.
It needs to be done sensibly. For example, as Matt Ridley notes in a separate article for the Telegraph, the world doesn’t simply need more trees. It needs the right kind of tree in the right place.
In the United Kingdom, for example, we don’t want any more of the grim sitka spruce or lodgepole pine trees planted as part of some hare-brained scheme by the Forestry Commission.
On 09 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Dellers quotes a Daily Caller article "While some want to blame global warming for the uptick in catastrophic wildfires, Zybach said a change in forest management policies is the main reason Americans are seeing a return to more intense fires, particularly in the Pacific Northwest and California where millions of acres of protected forests stand.
“We knew exactly what would happen if we just walked away,” Zybach, an experienced forester with a PhD in environmental science, told The Daily Caller News Foundation.
Zybach spent two decades as a reforestation contractor before heading to graduate school in the 1990s. Then the Clinton administration in 1994 introduced its plan to protect old growth trees and spotted owls by strictly limiting logging.
Less logging also meant government foresters weren’t doing as much active management of forests — thinnings, prescribed burns and other activities to reduce wildfire risk."
On 09 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Dellers continues
" One reason for this is global greening caused by increasing CO2 levels. Another is that prosperity is enabling poorer countries to find the spare money they need to engage in environmental projects.
Both the above examples are, of course, anathema to greenies who see CO2 — or “carbon” as they prefer to call it, because it sounds all black and scary — as an unmitigated evil and “prosperity” as the enemy because it involves economic growth... Greenies really don’t have a track record worth boasting about on trees. Back in 2018, they sought to blame the disastrous wildfires in California and elsewhere on President Trump’s denial of climate change.
But the real reason those wildfires burned and spread with such uncontrollable intensity was because of maladministration arising from greenie ideology.
On 09 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
He then quotes a Matt Ridley Spectator article.
"More significantly, the rate of deforestation in the Amazon basin is down by 70 per cent since 2004...A study in Nature last year by scientists from the University of Maryland concluded that even this is too pessimistic: ‘We show that — contrary to the prevailing view that forest area has declined globally — tree cover has increased by 2.24 million km2 (+7.1 per cent relative to the 1982 level).’
This net increase is driven by rapid reforestation in cool, rich countries outweighing slower net deforestation in warm, poor countries. But more and more nations are now reaching the sort of income levels at which they stop deforesting and start reforesting. Bangladesh, for example, has been increasing its forest cover for several years. Costa Rica has doubled its tree cover in 40 years. Brazil is poised to join the reforesters soon."
On 09 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
I'm going to quote Dellers at length here ===
[the] ludicrous idea that [Greta] and her fellow green loons have that only they know how to care for the planet, and that the rest of us — conservatives, especially, who believe in economic growth and free markets — know only how to destroy it...
It’s time, I think, that we conservatives reminded the world that we are the original and best conservationists — and that there’s absolutely nothing urban, yogurt-weaving, tofu-munching eco-loons can teach us about caring for nature.
Trees are a very good example of this. Almost everything the greenie propagandists tell us about trees is a lie.
One obvious recent example of this is the Amazon fire scare. It dominated the headlines all summer, with politicians such as France’s president Emmanuel Macron and celebrities from Madonna and Jennifer Lopez to Leo DiCaprio piling in to warn us of this man-made catastrophe."
On 09 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
That we had, and have had, no democratic vote on these policies that are being forced on us and hitting our pockets (whilst doing sod all for the climate or environment and impoverishing and disenfranchising the poor globally) speaks volumes. As Dellers wrote
[quote] Net Zero comes from exactly the same remote, ignorant and intransigent political imaginations as the European Union. It will be a far greater imposition than anything the EU has yet imposed. Any policy created under the Net Zero agenda will be created from the wrong side of the still widening, still deepening, and ever more dangerous democratic deficit. Brexit was supposed to close it, but the voter has not been given the opportunity to express a view on the most drastic, onerous and regressive policy agenda in the country’s history [end quote]
On 09 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
James Delingpole recently wrote about conservatives reclaiming the conservation mantle. Now I'm not a conservative, small or big C, but most sceptics are not big oil supporters, although we recognise the importance of fossil fuels e.g. Tony Heller is a massive old school environmentalist. Many of us at one time or another fell for the AGW scam, but just because we recognise the limited role of CO2 doesn't mean we do not care about the environment. Sceptics, many of us rural based rather than city dwelling, are big on the environment but down on the global governance communist/fascist policies being pushed. We recognise what Piers said in his interview with Mike Graham -
“Climate Policy is there to Control you, not Climate” ===https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2019/12/18/watch-piers-corbyn-climate-policy-is-there-to-control-you-not-climate-off-air-with-mike-graham-9th-december-2019/
On 09 Jan 2020, claude grayson wrote:
oh and at least 100 of the fires are not weather caused,but scum lighting them to promote their agenda.last count the police had got 98 of them but the fires they lit are still burning.
On 09 Jan 2020, Glenn wrote:
Isnt it funny how ten years ago we were all told by Weatheraction that LIA would mean colder winters in Britain. What an outright lie that was.
On 09 Jan 2020, claude grayson wrote:
john,those who live in oz,will be happy to point out that ,yes the current weather has dried out thefuel,but the fuel is only there because the greenies wouldnt let it be cleared."how dare you" seems to be the motto of the greens,disturb the undergrowth,and you are fined for such.so most ozies lay the blame for fires squarely on the greenies .
On 09 Jan 2020, Glenn wrote:
Well this has been the least snowiest winter ever. The 2020s could indeed be the first snowless decade. We can safely say that snow in this part of the world has been consigned to the history books.
On 09 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
@John Edgington I presume you're referring to Mark's comment
"the luvvies at the Golden Globe... Russel Crowe and company talk as if wildfires are not a common feature of the Australian landscape. The AGW industry that informs these nincompoops" I fail to see how he is making a remark at the expense of anyone except the luvvies that Ricky Gervais summed up well "you say you’re woke but the companies you work for in China – unbelievable. Apple, Amazon, Disney. If ISIS started a streaming service you’d call your agent, wouldn’t you?
So if you do win an award tonight, don’t use it as a platform to make a political speech. You’re in no position to lecture the public about anything. You know nothing about the real world. Most of you spent less time in school than Greta Thunberg.
So if you win, come up, accept your little award, thank your agent, and your God and ---- off, OK?". That is how the public feel about them. Not the people they speak for whilst they luxuriate in ivory tower
On 09 Jan 2020, Andy B 45D wrote:
John Ed
I think you are wrong about the fires in Aus being caused by climate change, the animal losses have been over egged, est of losses from half a million to half a billion, the former is nearer the mark for the density of animals in the area burned. As it is well documented that the fuel loads in the area aren't been reduced by hazard burning.
On 09 Jan 2020, John Edgington wrote:
Mark Hall seems to be making a humorous remark at the expense of all of those who have lost everything because of the wild fires in Australia. Over half a billion animals destroyed including species that were already at risk, plant species that may never recover. I personally do not find that at all funny and regardless of where the fault lies, if indeed it lies anywhere other than cyclical events.
There is an air of arrogance on this forum and I speak as a previous financial contributor. Folk get called trolls if they even dare to question what is being said. Time to wind your necks in folks and allow others an opinion, after all very little of what is being discussed is fact, most of it is opinion and as such we are all entitled to that
On 09 Jan 2020, Mark Hall wrote:
Geoff,
I am sure that Piers has given up on his useless brother. There is no point trying to get through to him.
Several years ago, Piers was pretty confident that Jeremy would institute some kind of Climate Forum where AGW could be objectively scrutinised. Sceptics would be given a level playing field and the truth would come out. What we got was a bearded idiot who once championed the coal mining industry sitting in a wigwam and complaining about dirty evil fossil fuels. And a Green New Deal suicide plan to destroy industrial society with its tax grab and tremendous misallocation of resources. Apparently, the £12 Billion (about £400 per household) we spend each year subsidising renewable energy is way too low.
Jeremy never stood up for what he truly believed in, because he caught the disease of triangulation. On Climate and Brexit, he ducked out, hoping not to upset his stakeholders, so that he could get the big prize.
The electorate correctly smelled hypocrisy and said goodbye
On 08 Jan 2020, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30 under a clear sky, then a sudden drop to 1˚ while the sun was getting higher in the sky, eventually reaching a max of 5˚, brilliantly sunny all day, great moonlit sky in the evening, -1˚ by 10pm, a touch of winter perhaps? == Mark Hall, there is a brilliant meme out, shows Grungy Greta and reads “Greta Thunberg cancels WIII, says it could accelerate climate change, weapon industries say ‘how dare you?’” == Ron, the tree in question was in a pot for ages because we hadn’t anywhere to plant it, I know about cutting roots, the soil was shallow with rock underneath; we grow all our commercial trees in Rootrainers, not sure if you’re familiar with them, off the ground, air pruning.
On 08 Jan 2020, Geoff wrote:
Piers, PLEASE speak to Jeremy about climate change...As the science slowly begins to change, thanks to the scholarly input of those such as yourself, he really does begin to make himself look foolish.
On 08 Jan 2020, Steve,Dorset, UK wrote:
So very mild here today, went for a pub lunch and did not feel the need for anything other than a jumper for warmth, although the weather has been so very mild here i see no signs of early sprouting of woodland plants eg bluebells and suchlike ,is this a sign of a late cold snap in feb, I wonder.
On 08 Jan 2020, claude grayson wrote:
down here near the bottom end,our summer is trying to be but cant quite make it,esp at nite.9deg at 6am..it really does seem that any co2 effect must only be happening in sunlight.i spose some greenie can explain why. but what ive been observing for a while now is when the ozone map [nasa ozone watch] shows thicker o3 near us we get colder crappier weather and when its thin much hotter,so i looked at your nth hemi.and seems the same as the map shows thin o3 over and near uk. thoughts?
On 08 Jan 2020, Rich wrote:
Sorry Craig, cant do 1st March as already burnt sledge!..... not really, gathering a lot of dust in Garage still along with De icer, salt, snow shovel etc.
On 08 Jan 2020, stephen parker wrote:
Its a damp squib of a winter so far down here in Hertfordshire, looks like January going to be Atlantic driven, so a mild winter is on the cards. The only saving grace is the amount of wet stuff will stop the greenies banging on about water shortages.
On 08 Jan 2020, Mark Hall wrote:
Paddy,
Last week the luvvies at the Golden Globes were making a big issue of the "unprecedented Australian wildfires". Our 3% or so added to the flux in the Carbon Cycle was apparently causing all this destruction.
However, the predominant tree down under, the Eucalyptus is specially adapted to withstand fire. It resprouts after fire and it's seeds are fire resistant.
But Russel Crowe and company talk as if wildfires are not a common feature of the Australian landscape. The AGW industry that informs these nincompoops conveniently forgets that droughts are caused by high pressure blocking and cooling ocean masses.
Anyway, I'd set fire to that broken tree and see what happens.
On 08 Jan 2020, Ron Greer wrote:
PADDY: Square-bottomed pots cause less problems especially if at planting, you go round the bottom eddges breaking up the protruding roots.
Very mild wet and windy here last night, but the cold fron has gone through now and it's got quite a bit cooler.
On 07 Jan 2020, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, wild SW’ly wind all day with some very powerful blasts, especially in the afternoon, calming down only by evening, max temp 11˚ though, if it hadn’t been so windy it would have been really warm. We had one small eucalyptus tree down, just snapped at the roots; with hindsight I had probably kept it in a pot some years ago for too long, so the roots just carried on growing in their pot bound direction. Otherwise no other damage as far as I could ascertain, well braced tunnels standing up to it no problem, so happy we planted all these trees around the farm years ago, huge difference. Still 10˚ at 9pm. We have to give the warmistas time (i.e. rope), as soon as some of their hare-brained ideas are actually being put into practice and are beginning to bite our bank accounts, many people will turn. And in the meantime, many more people are becoming aware of our impact on the environment, not a bad thing in itself.
On 07 Jan 2020, Fred wrote:
If an unusual bitter Spring is due....Piers....any ‘calls’? We don’t want ‘extreme southerlies’ bringing warmest Spring in record...
On 07 Jan 2020, out_east wrote:
Jetstream is south almost all of January.
Wait until the last week of Jan.
ie. quite likely a bitterly cold "spring" coming up.
Eg.
Yekaterinburg Ural traditionally coldest in late January to February.
On 07 Jan 2020, Mark Hall wrote:
Craig,
You've just got to keep plugging away. Conversations, blogs and meetings. If someone spouts alarmist tripe then challenge them in a friendly fashion.
My local paper has published several of my letters in the past couple of years that oppose the pseudoscientific orthodoxy. Usually I respond to letters and articles about XR, disinvestment in fossil fuels or the local council being urged to create a "climate emergency". Use hard facts and let people think about them.
Even the BBC website, despite the Science correspondents all being raging Green nutjobs, allows criticism of its many scaremongering articles. In the past couple of years I have detected a big shift towards scepticism.
So all is not lost.
We don't have to glue ourselves to any infrastructure, because ultimately the Solar driven climate cycle will become evident to more and more people. And exhorbitant green taxes are going to annoy many of them before too long.
Just give them a nudge.
On 07 Jan 2020, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
It's only the weather, calm down folk. Whatever you believe drives it, you can't control it. Yes there is serious cold bottled up Craig, however no sign of it moving into mid latitudes any time soon. All can change relatively quickly in the weather world though, so Feb could be s different story
On 07 Jan 2020, Glenn wrote:
FRED: you asked if there was a winter event to come. Unfortunately here on weather action you will not get the answer to that question. People on here are very secretive about snow events in Britain and they will not tell you even if there was one coming. People here like to keep British snow fans guessing.
On 07 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
I've let the below comment through for debate purposes but we will not tolerate any threats of violence against anyone, alarmist or not, nor any illegal or unethical behaviour (i.e. revealing personal details to get someone identified etc.). Also name calling is a not going to pass so please don't. However, It's an interesting debate. The alarmists gloves are off with many "concensus" scientists now starting to fight back against the XR and Greta's of the world. How do we best fight back? Become like them, in which case I believe we have lost the debate or do we allow them to take over the airwaves by being calm, rational and silenced in the clamour? Thoughts?
On 07 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Thanks Paddy and Piers. It was a sort of tweet storm 😂 Happens when I don't post here for a bit. // Poor Puerto Rico got hit by a 6.4M quake with lots of M4 & M5 aftershocks (an M5.8 struck just over an hour ago). The island nation received a direct hit from Maria in late 2018 so this is unwanted to say the least. An earth facing coronal hole is on the solar disc* ===
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-51014588 ===
On 07 Jan 2020, Glenn wrote:
We can no longer win this argument the right way. The gloves are now off, the time has come for name calling and to use dirty tactics against the warmists.
On 07 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Glenn I've edited out your address in the comment I'm copying below (we can't edit any messages they come as they are). Never give out personal identifying details (called doxxing if you do it to someone else) as there are some funny old types out there and climate is unfortunately one of those debates that brings them out. === "Calling RICH and FRED. Well here we are, 2019 has passed without any snow during the whole 12 months. On the strength of this and the fact that winter 2019/20 is NOW written off, I would like you to invite you both to a sledge burning party on 1st March to symbolise the death of snow."
On 07 Jan 2020, Ronan wrote:
Mark, Andy B thank you for the replies.
On 06 Jan 2020, Fred wrote:
Piers
Gonna need an extra-ordinary forecast to verify to temper the AGW onslaught......it’s incessant and there’s nothing in this quarter to counteract it. Is there a major winter event to come? Not tjis winter as it’s on cse and WILL verify to be too ten mildest on record.....
On 06 Jan 2020, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, but standing out in the cold SW’ly wind made it feel much lower, this wind eventually turning slightly more into the W. A mostly grey & cloudy day with an hour’s worth of drizzle in the morning, drier afternoon, a couple of glimpses of the sun, max temp 8˚, down to 4˚ by 9pm under a clear moonlit sky, highest full moon of the year coming on Friday when it is in Gemini, opportunity for fabulous nocturnal walks with the dog if it’s not cloudy. == Craig, thank you for your interesting posts!
On 06 Jan 2020, Mark Hall wrote:
Ronan,
Tony Heller and 1000frolly have each put together bulletins on YouTube casting doubt on Greenhouse Gas theory.
Arguing that atmospheric pressure is the main driver of temperature anomalies and the reason why standing on a high ridge is far cooler than the hot valley below. The Ideal Gas equation can explain it all. And it means those other inert molecules such as Nitrogen don't get ignored and can kinetically contribute to the big picture.
Whilst Mars and Venus both have 95% CO2 atmospheres, they have very different surface temperatures. Totally out of whack with the Inverse Square Law of Radiation based on their orbital distance from the Sun. The active vulcanism on Venus which boosts atmospheric pressure tremendously is the key to its hellish heat. And the puny atmosphere of Mars is why Matt Damon struggled on a diet of cold potatoes when he got stranded there.
Science is so damn annoying! Arguing that 95% of the Greenhouse Effect is down to H2O was maybe another mirage
On 05 Jan 2020, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, fairly cloudy with a SW’ly wind but the afternoon was quite sunny, temps rose to 8˚ and still that at 9pm, still for a while but then the wind turned into the NW but didn’t feel cold, no rain.
On 05 Jan 2020, Andy B 45D wrote:
Hi Ronan If you are on twitter follow @NikolovScience if not here is a link to one of his papers https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/New-Insights-on-the-Physical-Nature-of-the-Effect-Nikolov-Zeller/bddadcd85b73526f261abc74dab952913881837f
On 05 Jan 2020, Ronan wrote:
I am looking for some good articles that explain why the CO2 greenhouse effect doesn't work or is an incorrect idea.
On 04 Jan 2020, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, grey & overcast with intermittent drizzle, NW’ly breeze at first, gradually turning into the SW during the day and strengthening, fairly clear by late evening, 6˚ by 11pm. As I went to look at my thermometer, I realised that there were crosscurrents of air with the lower clouds racing in from the SW whereas the upper layer moved more slowly from the WNW.
On 04 Jan 2020, claude grayson wrote:
why dont we all begin to call ,coal,wood,etc by their proper name, CO2solar power, so instead of calling it a coalfired power stn we call it a co2solar power stn. a vehicle would become a co2solar made vehicle,on and on till the greenies are so confused by what is or isnt co2 made, they will stop their stupidness.
On 04 Jan 2020, claude grayson wrote:
another anti gw nite.temp droped to 7.9d, now up to 12d at 6am with cloud cover and nw. at least the cats are enjoying the fire. are we really the only ones who find that water vapour has much more effect on temp than any co2? do the clim.alarmists not venture outside,but go from their Coal warmed, airconditioned homes,to their coal made aircon. vechicles ,to aircon airports or work etc. poor deluded people .we ought to encourage them all to spend time outside and get a feel of the climate.
On 04 Jan 2020, @Piers_Corbyn London Chief Forecaster wrote:
Citizens all thanks for those brill comments and CRAIG that's a really interesting twitter-ish-storm of your own. Thanks. I agree 'interesting winter' comment. WILD JET STREAM IS THE NEWS So crazy cold - Alaska etc and significant snow -Med, in parts of North Hem but not BI so far. Some v cold blasts are just missing BI and hitting Europe ++++
ALL PLEASE NOTE, ACT AND PASS ON! Our amazing 12 days of Xmas sale ENDS ON 12th NIGHT Sun/Mon 5/6 Jan so go now to home page www.WeatherAction.com and get your TOP FOUR-FOR-ONE-DEAL. Overlaps with existing subs get full appropriate extensions.
On 04 Jan 2020, east_side wrote:
Nothing could me clearer to me as a frequent traveller than a 3-6 week sideways movement of the seasons.
It's rather recent as a phenomenon, just WHY is one of those things we struggle to explain,
A cave-cooperative which had been operating (nr 100yrs) in Orleans region closed 2yrs ago because of several yrs of late frosts in succession. NO GRAPES, for 3 yrs.
I used to buy there regularly in the 90s.
Our grape picking last year in late Sept was accompanied by heat more reminiscent of Aug, so much as to make a trek, cross border from Chamonix-Aosta absolutely ideal at that time.
The recent warmth of autumns right across from S Wales to as far east as Moscow I can date back regularly 8yrs, with swimming in a warm sea in Dieppe in Nov.
The last winters of true cold in Nov-Dec date back nearly a decade, but in the Russian springs we have grown weary with a winter that seems interminable into April-May.
However, I usually go ski in the alps in April & May.
Spring conditions b
On 04 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
And finally before sleep calls me these two tweets are worth considering
1) Jakarta lies 6 deg Sth of the equator and is subject to seasonal monsoon rainfall. Sometimes huge amounts drop (I've seen 500mm+/24h). A 24 year record means nothing and this BBC report is only designed to enforce the idea of a #FakeNews
#ClimateCrisis https://t.co/r1lFNp49ui https://t.co/VST7mUFsgs
2) "Fatally flawed... Corruption...Conflicts of interests.. Money influencing the media" This is not #BigOil but #BigGreen. Who benefits from the #ClimateCrisis? #FollowtheMoney https://t.co/ETwJU0k6Qh
On 04 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Now the interesting part was from his 28/12 tweet "The Arctic Oscillation (AO) will be highly positive. Wild weather will occur when this +AO breaks down. === https://t.co/Ayj5ogm2iR ===
Caleb, had an intriguing recent blog post titled ARCTIC SEA ICE –Slack Tide === https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2019/12/29/arctic-sea-ice-slack-tide/ === He says "Perhaps, just as a tidal bore resembles a tsunami yet requires no earthquake, sudden shifts in temperature require no earth-shaking event, but rather the slow rising of a “tide” to overcome whatever was resisting and “masking” it." Highly recommend reading as it gets you thinking and immediately brought to mind the cold locked currently at the pole. Something has got to give and I'm with Ryan Maue on that one. All a question of does the UK just miss out? Do we have to wait until March? Is Out East onto something with the slide of the seasons these past few years? Fascinating stuff. Happy New Year all 🙂
On 04 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Moving on... 1946/7 was a late winter (not suggesting a repeat, more an echo of possibility (see below). Feb 1929 (the Great Frost) was late and hard but not particularly snowy. Now this winter has been strange as, despite promising signs and early record cold and snow in the US, we now have a tightly wound polar vortex with zonal set up which has unleashed "historically extreme" (Ryan Maue) record cold in Alaska (low of -60C on 29/12 ties record with 14/12/46 and a record max of -55C on 27/12 - old record 29/12/74) & as Ryan Maue reported on 28/12
Over the next 7-days, the "polar vortex" will anchor to northern Greenland and plummet temperatures into the -70s (°F) -- extreme cold even for the elevated ice sheet." He followed this up today with this tweet.
"Update: preliminary data at Summit Station, Greenland from Thursday, Jan 2, 2020 showed all-time record low temperature of -86°F. The station spent much of yesterday stuck in the -80°s 🌡===https://t.co/kLKtgBOUas
On 04 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Global warming, Climate change, crisis, global heating. Last chance to buy. All the same you'd expect from the deluded and morally bankrupt. Sorry but when a stooge, child or not, stands up and wants to take all the rights and future away from my children and children around the world then go to hell in a handcart all by your lonesome. Try living without affordable energy first, try not relying on the handouts from millionaires and billionaires, leave your comforts, your iPhone, your individually plastic packed food items and your world leader pals whilst you "see the carbons" and leave us alone. We had the "climate change election" both here and in Auz and we reject wholeheartedly the fascist, authotarian dictats of your puppet masters. Just because every muppet on Twitter and in the media is too afraid to speak truth to power does not mean we will follow you blindly to your Brave New Green World of surfdom. You jump first if your that convinced.
On 04 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
as Joe B has said many times a great repository of all the heat from Grand Solar Max which won't give up heat that easily or quickly - volcanism excepted his triple crown of cooling. The point being, the oceans won't give up their heat that lightly. Fears of an ice age didn't really start until we'll into the the 60s and then 70s because the oceans had been warming before then. So whilst we may see meridional signs we are only just coming down from the peak. I've been guilty of being too giddy regards cooling, not taking that I to account. Does it mean we'll warm? I don't think so. And desperate peak alarmism would suggest the alarmists don't think so either, hence the loud desperate clamouring from the anti-Democratic "How Dare You" mob. Why shout so loud, why make people rush into a decision (that the concensus science doesn't actually support) if your case is so strong? A conman rushes you with last chance to buy as they rip you off. They also change the sales patter...
On 04 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
The Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) has been positive since the early 1990s. It may go up and down somewhat but since then it has mostly positive values. It is however declining from its peak in the early part of the last decade - expected to drop more so in the coming decade. It explains UK temps quite well. As for the Pacific version, the PDO, it began rising around 1976, peaked in the 80s but didn't really decline until the early 2000s, at least until 2014 when it shot up again and is only now declining with all manner of heated blobs appearing off the coast of North America. All of this impacts the jetstream and consequently weather patterns. Much of the records we have are anecdotal and surmised not hard scientific record due to the inconsistent and varied ways we have measured the oceans. Realistically we only have the ARGO bouys (1999-) which in 13 yrs collected twice as many measurements as all the ship measurements in the whole 20thC! So we have a rather large unknown
On 04 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
The main point is we are being force fed spin about how GD hot it is and records, records, records...
So why does water mater? Because 71% of the planet is covered in the stuff.
Michael Ventrice wrote in response to Bernice Sanders Twitter fart about Australia (where the don't burn the brush to lessen the fire load - as the Aboriginals did with good reason [see this tweet : warning very Aussie strong language === https://twitter.com/CraigM350/status/1212391487847178241?s=19] === "I get Climate Change is a very important topic in Politics. But there's a natural ocean cycle (top 3 strongest Indian Ocean Dipole event) that played a role in drought in Australia over the past 6 months. By leaving out the natural process, CC is being used as a political crutch" === https://t.co/Gkg5l6aYY6
On 04 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
In the same post Paul wrote off 2019 "The year as a whole has been remarkably unremarkable, as far as temperatures are concerned, ranking only the 24th warmest on record since 1659, and not as warm as even 1733, 1779, 1834 and 1868."
=== Water takes time to cool, especially so when energy is continually added (i.e. Solar heating which keeps going to higher or lesser degrees during max/min and grand max/min), for example slow-cooling water can release heat to nearby land during the night (think sea breeze). We do not suddenly plunge into cool temps as the sun still shines i.e. it doesn't turn itself fully off, nor suddenly provide a cooling source like switching the air blower setting from warm to cool in the car - excluding volcanism which creates particles high in the stratosphere which block the sun such as Tambora in 1815 which preceded the year with no summer in 1816, or Pinatubu in 1991 which reduced sunlight reaching the surface by ~10% and a ~0.4C decline in global temps
On 04 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Today the BBC, who may or not be in the last throes of death as the axe awaits the licence, reported:
“the 2010s were slightly behind 2000-2009, which holds the record for the hottest and wettest decade.” ===
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50976909
===
So despite the paroxysms over the past decade it wasn’t the hottest, nor the wettest. So when Paul Homewood writes "It is something I have been pointing for a while now – whatever is happening globally, England stopped warming in the early 2000s, following a step change in temperatures beginning in the mid 1980s." He’s not wrong is he?
=== https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2020/01/04/an-exceptional-year-hardly-mr-mccarthy/
On 04 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Apr 08 and Oct 08 both delivered snow here. The former being the best since 81 (was hit & miss but still blizzards in Berks + think of the 80s winters that followed that!), the latter delivered settled snow not seen so early since the 1930s & 1880s.I have even read that it was the shortest period between snowfalls on record in some places ~6 months + look at the winters that followed from 09-13 (2011 was poor but was bookended by the 2nd coldest Dec on record in 2010 + a remarkable cold spell in Feb 2012 which delivered needle snow here in a biting Easterly although it wasn't great country wide, but then again many famous spells don't deliver to the UK as a whole). Add the QBO being westerly until the past few weeks & we had a poor set up for early doors, despite the promise of cold in Oct + Nov (Piers curious what signalled the degree cold for you? The sign was right, just not the magnitude of sign). Anyway I'll follow up with what is interesting to me & gives hope into April...
On 04 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Look out for the 1946 mention in my comms (the record I point to is in the exact same place but 2 wks later this year. So the 1946 record was beaten 73 years later. Divide that by the 18.6 (lunar standstill - often rounded to 19y) you get 3.92 so in the ballpark. We are not at sol min but likely within 6-12 months of it. We have reasonably followed SC12 (since max not so much) but as a guide that was 11.3y. Dec 08 + 11.3y = ~Apr 20 min. How we rise out of there is open to question but it could take a year or two and that is usually the decent winters. I'm certainly not ruling out a short sharp shock. Last year's winter was shocking after the promise and records of 17/18 but it was boring as hell over Xmas/New Year and despite that delivered over 24hrs continuous snow here in Berks and feet in Bath. It lasted days and the deepest cold since 2012. This year reminds me of last in some ways and although I've not seen Piers forecast for Mar/Apr I wouldn't be surprised if we get it then...
On 03 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
"The pace of new-cycle sunspots is definitely intensifying. 2020 is only three days old, and already there is a Solar Cycle 25 'spot on the sun: AR2755...This is the 3rd consecutive month that Solar Cycle 25 sunspots have appeared: Nov. 2019, Dec. 2019, and now Jan. 2020. The quickening pace of new cycle sunspots does not mean that Solar Minimum is finished. On the contrary, low sunspot counts will likely continue for many months and maybe even years. However, it is a clear sign that Solar Cycle 25 is coming to life. The doldrums won't last forever." So lots to play for and in the next few comments I have something that may perk your ears up regarding the raging polar vortex and goes back to something you said about the cold building in the Arctic earlier last year. I know you may have lost hope this winter, I almost feel the same, but all the analogues pointed to a late one and 09 was a winter that took time to get going (despite the coldest spell since 91, Feb 09 ended average)...
On 03 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
@Fred I think maybe hold judgement as we are in unprecedented times in terms of observing the sun & global weather. You wrote back in May "For me, comparing the last schwabe minima to this one....it looks to me that this one won't be as deep as the last one. I'm surprised at the little extra activity this time around. We'd have to be blank for the rest of the year now to beat last year. 08/09 had 268 [73%] and [260, 71%] blank days." We ended on 281 (77%). Back on 17/12 Dr Tony Phillips wrote at spaceweather.com "Solar Minimum is becoming very deep indeed. Over the weekend, the sun set a Space Age record for spotlessness. So far in 2019, the sun has been without sunspots for more than 271 days, including the last 34 days in a row. Since the Space Age began, no other year has had this many blank suns". As for where SC25 heads, Dalton or century class minimum who knows but Dr Philips has written about the SC25 spots this Jan.... Cont...
On 03 Jan 2020, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Quite a cold wave over India: on 30/12 Delhi had a new Dec low of 9.4C, some 11.4C below the normal & far less than the 11.3C previous record from Dec 97 (records since 1901), beating the coldest ever recorded temp from Jan 2013 of 9.8C + was 2nd coldest Dec on record (1997 coldest). Whilst Delhi temps might not sound much to us, remember the houses are not insulated for such low temps as we also find in Australia, for example.
Karachi, Pakistan recorded its coldest Dec in 17 years + "National Forecasting Centre Director Zaheer Babar said on [1/1/20] that Skardu broke a 40-year record after reporting the lowest temperature, -20.7 degrees Celsius, during Dec 2019. "Previously, the lowest the temperature had fallen in Skardu was -17.2 degrees Celsius in 1961. In Dec 2018, the temperature was -13.6 degrees Celsius, -9 degrees Celsius in Dec 2017 and -10.2 degrees Celsius in Dec 2016." Whilst now abated, temps are due to lower again over the Ind/Pak region in the coming days.
On 03 Jan 2020, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, cloudy at first but then turning into a really sunny day, albeit with a cold WNW’ly wind that blew all day, rather hazy evening but the moon was still very visible and lit the way in our forest when I took the dog for his last outing for the day, 5˚ at 9.30pm.
On 03 Jan 2020, Paul (sub) SE UK wrote:
Looks like the Jan forecast is now available - seems to be a month of somewhat split weather between North and South UK. I'm guessing things are a lot harder to predict when the jetstream is highly volatile?
On 03 Jan 2020, Ron Greer wrote:
RICH, FRED and GLENN: perhaps you could get together for that sledge-burning party on March 1st ?
On 03 Jan 2020, claude grayson wrote:
was just looking at the Eldorado weather site and saw the pic of the day, a satelite view of a major storm system about to whack norway area. our met have been trying to forcast 10 days but THOR wont read what they say and does HIS own thing,often the opposite of what they say esp.6-10 daysout... gen for us down here, at 15 deg it feels like a fire would be nice,so at 13 deg at 5am i have lit the fire in the middle of summer.
On 03 Jan 2020, stephen parker wrote:
Hi EASTSIDE,Can't see any coming to down town Rickmansworth.
On 03 Jan 2020, out_east wrote:
Winter is late arriving in Western Europe.
An almost constant southerly airstream fuelled by a wandering strong southerly jetstream packed with atlantic moisture has made life a misery for people in southern France, with repeated heavy flooding episodes then heavy snowfall in the pyrenees & alps, which then becomes unstable with very high avalanche danger.
It has to be said this autumn-early winter will be remembered as one of the wettest in the last 30yrs,- no more worries about drought next year.
However, put this in perspective,-winter arrived early in Ural, & has been very normal. Cold down to -30C regularly. Only 1500kms west,Moscow is only now starting to drop down thru 0C, while SPB/Baltic states well north of it, has still ZERO snow cover.
This will continue thru a good deal of Jan with the heavy storms which make a miserable grey winter. SPB had only 2.5hrs of sunshine in December.
Remember this,-with the seasons moving 3-4weeks sideways,real winter is still to come
On 03 Jan 2020, stephen parker wrote:
Re David: Agree with what you say, not looking like Dalton/ Maunder scenario changes the whole narrative. I first got interested in this subject in 2008. It looks like one of the main legs supporting a mini ice age is failing. Time will tell but lots of people were predicting cold weather, crop failures from 2017, its not happening here, maybe in the U.S.A so a confused picture.
On 02 Jan 2020, Fred wrote:
David (Yorkshire)
Make no bones, if cycle 25 firs up....forget the deep minimum....game over. Piers, never mind world areas....UK is on and will have the mildest winter since 1989......but you know that.......expect AGW to dominate 2020.....and maybe rightly so. If next winter is to be a record breaker you’d be telling us all now.....and new year is VERY MILD.......not diabolically cold
On 02 Jan 2020, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, brightness in the SE sky but that didn’t last, strong SW’ly wind gradually turning into the W, temps slowly rising to reach 8˚ by 9.30pm, by which time moon & stars were out.
On 02 Jan 2020, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Rich
Greta Thunberg deserves some mild insults because she goes around mouthing off at everyone she disagrees with. Apparently she is going back to school and her parents are spinning things as her recent adventures were 'treatment for depression'. Fine, but she is not scientifically up to speed and she should not be taken seriously in the climate debate. What should be taken seriously is the generational neurosis that brainwashing at school induces: that is a major societal concern and the way to rectify that is proper education in how to think, not how to absorb propaganda.
On 02 Jan 2020, claude grayson wrote:
Rich,its not ,we dont agree,its because anyone knows,that unless you fudge the data you cant get gw/cc,and so much is just plain lies,and twisted data.no one is claiming to know all the answers,we just want to know the Facts,unfudged,uninterpreted,by anyone with a Belief,to push on others. Facts are facts .Beliefs get manipulated and changed with the wind of current trends.so we arent closed minded to Facts, just beliefs.
On 02 Jan 2020, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Fred, i believe solar cycle 25 has started and if it fires up, then we are not entering a deep minimum as expected overall. One to watch. As for any proper winter weather, too early to rule out second half of Jan and Feb for definite, however this pattern will be difficult to shift.
On 02 Jan 2020, Ron Greer wrote:
RICH; if you want to self-identify as a troll, that's OK by me.
On 01 Jan 2020, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 8.30, clear as a bell, overnight frost thawing in the light SW’ly wind, followed by a fairly bright morning but slightly cloudier afternoon, temp reaching 4˚, still there by 10.30pm. Good day for the beginning of a new year, day lengthening noticeable now in late afternoon, morning still darkening a bit.
On 01 Jan 2020, Rich wrote:
Dear Ron
Why is it anybody who doesn't agree with the 'true believers' thoughts on this site is open to be insulted. So I'm a troll am I? I've read how Greta T has been insulted on this site by its members, or the BBC or pretty much anybody who disagrees. At the same time we look down on politicians who behave the same way to those of opposing views. Its not about the weather I want, but evidence. I'm open minded to listen but not always agree. I get the LIA theory and also the Greenhouse theory. But if your mind is so closed to opposing thoughts and you can only deal by insulting those with open minds who are happy to challenge...well, enjoy the bubble you live in.
On 01 Jan 2020, Geoff wrote:
Funny how none of the climate change glitterati have anything whatsoever to say whilst tonnes of fireworks are being launched systematically around the world on New Years Eve...You'd have thought it would be enough to make their eyes water !!
On 01 Jan 2020, Ron Greer wrote:
I see there's record cold in Alaska, Pakistan and parts of India. Nothing remotely similar in the standard models for the UK & Ireland
On 01 Jan 2020, Fred wrote:
Piers, if cycle 25 fires up this year then this minima is not as deep as the last as 08 and 09 were long deep spotless years. That would already fire up concerns for next winter. This one for cold imo is written off, mild Jan and Feb with early Spring is very much the favourite here.
On 31 Dec 2019, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Light drizzle to start today but soon phasing out, cloudy then partial clearing, not as mild today as quite fresh in a tshirt so reached for the jumper again compared to yesterday. Mostly cloudy 6 deg now at 11.30pm 6 deg dew point real feel 4. Happy weather watching and New Year to ye all.
On 31 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, frosty and clear with a light SW’ly breeze, sunny all day with a max temp of 4˚, couldn’t be nicer for the last day of the year, 0˚ at 10pm under a starry sky. Happy New Year everyone when it cometh.
On 31 Dec 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Interested to note that Matthias Thun, son of famous agricultural researcher Maria Thun, got several months weather predictions broadly right in his 2019 biodynamic calendar, the predictions being up to 12 months ahead (the annual calendar comes out latish each calendar year, so his accurate December 2019 prediction was over 12 months ahead).
Mr Thun clearly does not use the same methodology as Piers, but he focuses on planetary movements through the night sky (the exact details are not clear to me). None of his work has anything to do with carbon dioxide or 'models'.
His prediction for December 2020 is potential for a cold snap and a white Christmas, so it will be interesting to see what Piers says in due course and how those predictions will pan out.
On 31 Dec 2019, Fred wrote:
Anyone have the 30 day Jan update yet?
On 31 Dec 2019, Andy B 45D wrote:
My rainfall totals for the last 6 years, although some people think this is an exceptional wet year, my records say otherwise.
2014 1847mm
2015 1547mm
2016 1507mm
2017 1110mm
2018 1202mm
2019 1469mm
On 31 Dec 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
to any troll it may concern: this site is not about the weather we want, but what we get and might get---and why.
On 31 Dec 2019, Rich wrote:
Lovely sunny day in E Cambs. See Russians shipping in snow for Moscow with record high temps and Russia having warmest year since 1886 approx. (Russia the biggest country on the planet so not sure which part of globe is cooling, not the arctic and not the UK, not Australia....).Arctic ice levels continue to track at record low year levels of 2012. I get Piers claim just think what would have happened if all the rain had been snow, but it wasn't, it needed to be several degrees cooler. which is a lot. To win the LIA cooling argument something tangible is required which at the moment its lacking.. or the suspicion will linger the start of tangible evidence will always be on a rolling basis several years away, Joe Bastardi predicted frigid winters 2012 onwards.. still waiting. Happy New Year all!
On 31 Dec 2019, Richard Bruce wrote:
I have been taking rainfall readings for the past four years in Nidderdale, North Yorkshire. The annual totals are 2016 (1056mm), 2017 (961mm), 2018 (1064mm) and 2019 (1357mm). Clearly the impact of a very wet last four months has had an impact on the annual total, but looking at the monthly totals, it has been pretty wet since June.
On 30 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, cloudy with a strong SW’ly wind, a couple of hours light rain before midday, a little bit of sunshine in the afternoon, max temp 9˚, wind abating for a short while early evening but then getting up again, clear starry sky by late evening, 4˚ at 9pm.
On 30 Dec 2019, Tony ex sub wrote:
Ron think.you could be right .......I'm.starting to struggle with this lia ...I know we are only a small.part of the world but surely if its ti happen it should to us also ???
On 30 Dec 2019, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
The last 2 days continuing mild and mostly dry, think we had passing light showers early this morning and again this evening but on the whole it's been dry and looking forward to making the most of it and having a couple days back outside, rain forecast for Thursday then back dry for Friday and weekend according to met.ie 10 deg at 8.40pm
On 30 Dec 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
TONY: yup GFS already backtracking on the intensity and duration of the PM incursion predicted on the 3rd/4th of next month. No sign of any major blocking highs.
On 30 Dec 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
TONY:just a gut feeling based on the run of recent winters and GFS is showing something like this for the next 10 days or so and with the proviso that they usually over estimate the intensity and direction of PM outbreaks. I hate this kind of winter as it encourages early bud burst in my seedlings which then suffer in the spring frosts.
On 29 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, blustery SW’ly mild wind under an overcast sky but brightening up by end of morning and giving us a fairly sunny afternoon, still blowing by 9pm with a bit of rain, still 9˚. == Ron, I have to say that I have no difficulty with the absence of snow, keeps life easy, though more frost would be great to get rid of many soil pests such as overwintering carrot fly maggots.
On 29 Dec 2019, Tony ex sub wrote:
Ron any reasoning in your predictions or just a stab in the dark????
On 29 Dec 2019, Steve, Dorset,UK wrote:
Hello and happy new year to all, what an autumn and early winter we have had mini cold snaps lasting a mere day or so but the rain has been incessant, we always can see here in Dorset when it has been wet the chalk springs start to flow and water appears all over the place and fine crystal clear water at that, I suppose if greta saw this it would be global warming that has caused it, well this has happened time and again over the past 150 years plus so greta no more childish Garbage. And school starts very soon so back you go.
On 29 Dec 2019, Glenn wrote:
RON GREER: and you would like that wouldnt you Ron?
On 29 Dec 2019, Glenn wrote:
Thinking about putting my sledge on a big bonfire to symbolise the death of snow in Norfolk. On march 1st im thinking about making a coffin and labelling it as Snow: Died February 2018.
On 29 Dec 2019, Glenn wrote:
Why does this keep hapenning in Britain? I must say a congratulations to all on this site. You have all got what you wanted, another winter without snow. Its a pity we were not told ten years ago that LIA means milder winters, not cold.
On 29 Dec 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
looks like we are in for a long run of mild Atlantic weather from the west/southwest with only brief incursions of polar maritime air. GFS is predicting at present a sharp outbreak of PM air on 3/4th January, but my guess is that this will be deflected further northeast and the SW mild conditions will prevail. It will be late winter/early spring before we get any real cold snaps.
On 29 Dec 2019, Lorraine wrote:
Lorraine//rain seems to have been the dominant weather for guernsey since last week of October up to Christmas yes odd days of blue sky days but rain plenty of the water and reservoir full. Not complaining the commodity is most certainly previous.
On 28 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, overcast with a strong & mild SW’ly wind, a short burst of sunshine after 10 with dramatic black skies to the north but then complete cloud cover for the rest of the day, still 9˚ at 10pm and the wind continuing unabated.
On 28 Dec 2019, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Looked like we had some light showers to start the day 27th but cleared quickly and a good mild dry cloudy day for walking. Wind back tonight se'ly so making 9 deg feel more like 5 at 1.15 a.m
On 27 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, overcast with a strong S’ly wind, copious rain for a couple of hours in the morning, misty at times but not cold, temp actually rose to 7˚ by 10pm. Scandinavian High is strengthening, blocking? Could give us mildness while England gets the easterly beast.
On 27 Dec 2019, Piers Corbyn wrote:
TOP SEASONS GREETINGS TO ALL
A PRESENT FOR YOU! SEE HOME PAGE RIGHT HAND SIDE for AMAZING BOXINGDAY PLUS DEALS:
ALL 12 months subs for only 3 - That's 4 for 1.
ALL 6 months subs for only 2 - That's 3 for 1.
THIS AIN'T GONNA COME AGAIN FOR A LONG TIME so DO IT.
Full cred-extensions on all subscription overlaps
Some rain Deluges in Oct (which also had some early snow as warned), Nov and Dec have been close to snow deluges. If that had happened, imagine! That's what to expect in developing Little Ice Age.
Further to some comms on Greenhouse effect I remind all:-
UK is a tiny part of the world +to draw world conclusions is daft.
ManMade GlobalWarming/ ClimateChange does not exist.
The so-called GreenhouseEffect is FakePhysics - contrary to 1st & 2nd laws of thermodynamics. SEE RHS home page and click on my MasterClass / TruthClass 4 comprehensive videos. MUST SEE!
Thanks for your ongoing support and interest and comments through arduous 2019.
Merry Xmas +happy NewYe
On 26 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
4˚C at 7.30, overcast in a fresh SE’ly wind, temps rising steadily to a max of 6˚ by 10pm, no sun and only a little rain around 3pm.
On 26 Dec 2019, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Really cold and frosty start to Christmas Day, the next best to snow, being a true weather geek I had to go for a walk about whilst it was still crunchy out after the early morning present part as beautiful when its frosty and as lovely as giving presents is it's nice to ground out in nature, titchy one also wanted to test drive her first wheel Barrow and first pair of snow boots, took to it like a duck to water :)) Clouded over later in the day and wind started up outside early eve and quite gusty out still at 1.25 a.m 7 deg but feels much colder due to se'ly wind.
On 25 Dec 2019, Tony ex sub wrote:
Well another xmas with no snow ......been so far a mild ..wet ...time in northants .....I've followed this site for probably 4 yrs now some being a member and I've listened to certain things said by certain people ....like 2018 /2019 start of harsher winters ..nope then 2019/2020 again same said ..I know its early days but I just dont see it at all time will tell I.guess ..it really is no wonder the masses think there is global warming ...
On 25 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, overcast & still, though eventually we had a light W’ly breeze, lovely bit of sunshine in the afternoon, cloudy again by night and temps rising to 4˚ by 9pm, feeling mild and the smell of the air is as if there was snow on the way but doesn’t look likely, temps forecast to rise by Friday, mild weekend. Hope everyone had a good Christmas without family or gastric fallouts.
On 25 Dec 2019, Istvan ilyes wrote:
Merry Christmas to all from a sunny mild West Sussex
Sorry to Glenn in Norfolk, no snow nowhere man. Try the New Year?
Happy New year to all.
On 24 Dec 2019, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
Some light showers early today passing through & clearing to give some sunny spells for a short time, some nice stars tonight and temp dropping 3 deg at 11.23pm feels cooler. Off to bed so Santa can come and eat the lil half a mince pie the titchy one left :)) glad she didn't drink the glass of Irish cream 😅 Merry Christmas to everyone have a good one 😁
On 24 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚c at 7.30, pretty good frost but thawing widely during the day even though the temperature didn’t rise above 2˚, mostly cloudy but with occasional sunshine and a sharp NW’ly breeze, some stars out at night, still 2˚ at 9pm. Merry Christmas everyone!
On 24 Dec 2019, claude grayson wrote:
happy xmas evryone. 6am temp for xmas morning 12 7d,so quite balmy for a winters day, and with windchill abt 5d ,except someone forot to tell the weather gods its sposed to be summer down here.anyone got a direct line to them to let them know. a neighbour said yesterday sky tv is beginning to hammer the climatechangers so things may begin to get better for the deniers. have a great xmas.
On 23 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, quite a good frost, cloudy to begin with and some fairly heavy rain during the morning, but then we had a very sunny afternoon, all in a cool W’ly wind, temp rising to 3˚ and still that at 9pm, looks like we might get another frost as the stars are out & there is not much cloud cover.
On 23 Dec 2019, claude grayson wrote:
got blasted on 20th for posting a ?as to where was global warming, as here in the rural area of manawtu,NZ ,at 6am the temp outside was 3.3deg,on one of the longest days . touched a nerve as the blasting i got from a supposed top scientist in dendro,was to say the least unscientific,or if it was scientific language then science is in real trouble.
On 22 Dec 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Fred warming has existed for sure and the impacts are naturally more noticeable at the poles and that vastly increases a green house gas - water vapour. However the warming of the oceans that causes this, is not down to Man. Although any effort to clean up our act, is obviously a good thing. The deforestation of the planet and the impact on the natural world, is what should have been tackled head on by governments and powers that be, not alleged AGW. As for greta she has been brainwashed, however you can't blame her or her generation for that. She should not be trolled or targeted.
On 22 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, overcast and quite still, some bits of sunshine here & there, max temp 5˚, spectacular sunset, 2˚ at 9pm. As Rhys points out, winter solstice this morning at 4:19, onward & upward from now on for the light, noticeably in about 10 days or so, downward for temps, normally, but I don’t think we live in ‘normal’ weather times, they went away with Betamax and Olivetti.
On 22 Dec 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
366mm of rain in NW London between autumn equinox and winter solstice. 197.6mm is long-term average for OND quarter. Seems that this may be a feature of post 18 month drought/heatwaves, as similar happened after 1975/76 event.
First standing water at the bottom of the garden since the deluges of 2012.
On 22 Dec 2019, andy (chiltern Hills) wrote:
Fred, forecasting mild, wet and stormy weather in the uk isn’t that difficult, the difficulty is in forecasting any cold weather coming from the continent.
On 21 Dec 2019, Fred wrote:
David and Ron
Yes but point is Piers’ forecast is so much more accurate with mild/warm blasts and mild storminess. Can Piers explain why? This will be one of the mildest winters in record.....please don’t expect a cold February...
AGW must exist
On 21 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, clear sky, fresh & cold SW’ly wind, soon clouding over though and temp only slowly rising to a max of 4˚ by afternoon, still that at 9pm, with a couple of hours of rain around that time. Yes Craig, lack of sunshine absolutely, as well as lots of rain.
On 21 Dec 2019, out_east wrote:
Another 10 days of warm & rain to come, then sudden cold.
Watch out,- first week of January a plunge into winter with the usual chaos pantomime of snow/travel/unpreparedness.
Ural is already doing yoyo between -1 > -30.
Snow just dropped a massive amount on the alps and pyrenees (which will melt under Fohn again), Scandinavia, nothing much yet, and SPB Russia still not in winter.
I expect Moscow/SPB to drop into deep winter snow in 1st week of Jan, followed by a month of a big freeze.
Whether or not it gets to the UK for a lasting freeze with anticyclone/zero winds/zero sun and lots of freezing fog is the big question right now.
Stay warm!
On 21 Dec 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Rainfall is over 280mm since Oct, with this month characterised by low pressure and lack of sunshine despite a cold, frosty and foggy start. Temps more or less average. Two days of thunder and lightening which is rare and tells the story of conflicting airmasses down south.
On 21 Dec 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
So jet has been quite south compared to warm zonal periods of now recent times but it has been wet allowing a recharge after quite a dry period that lasted from early 2018. Will the cold follow the rain? Solstice is on Sunday. As the days grow longer, the cold grows stronger. It certainly is a different winter and at least the daffs aren't out like in recent years 😂
On 21 Dec 2019, Maria (Ireland sub) wrote:
20/12/19 Foggy to start and even more foggy to end 👀 5 deg with a dew point of 3 just after midnight.
On 20 Dec 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
He the has a section on oceans, which is well worth a read but skipped here, "In my opinion we have a major test coming up over the next 24 months as we are about to witness a new solar minimum with a warmer base temperature in both ocean and atmosphere. The test shall be, can we see earth’s oceans cool, resulting in a cooler atmosphere at the hands of this next solar minimum or do we remain warm?
An additional positive to a colder winter is that sudden stratospheric warming events are also more likely during low solar years."..." Another positive for particularly the UK and Scandinavia is that it’s been a very wet autumn. There is evidence which suggests that where the wettest conditions compared to normal take up residence in autumn, that can indicate where the cold may go that winter (Joe Bastardi)." === it's an interesting theory, but one of many factors. We appear to be an easterly qbo phase now. That can work well but could easily end up like last year....cont....
On 20 Dec 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Just pulling out a few quotes from Mark Vogan's winter forecast that are certainly worth pondering === "Following the record mild period of 2006 and 2007, winter began to fight back during the second half of winter 2008-09 with record snowfall and very cold weather crippling southern Britain marking the start of a string of colder winters.
There’s a clear link between solar cycles and winter. Following the solar maximum of 1994, the late 1990s saw a series of warm, stormy winters like we then repeated in the late 2000s and most recently late 2010s ahead of a severe winter which hit right on a solar minimum (2000-2001, 2009-10… 2020-21?)
What’s interesting is that each solar cycle we’re experiencing is considerably weaker than the previous and therefore begs the question that if winter 2009-10 was colder than 2000-01, are we likely to witness colder with this even lower solar cycle scheduled to reach a minimum next year?"... Cont...
On 20 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, overcast all day with a light SE - SW’ly wind, no rain though quite a bit again overnight, the river Dee is pretty high, wouldn’t take an awful lot more to burst its banks, mild day but by evening the temperature went down to 4˚ by 8.30pm. Temps for the foreseeable future look mildish according to Meteosoup, cold not materialising much just yet.
On 20 Dec 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
FRED: to be fair to Piers, standard models (eg GFS) also often back track on polar maritime outbursts and often at very much shorter time periods than Piers predicts. The weather does what it does, not what we want. Both David ( Yorkshire) and myself predicted a mild December some time ago and apart from some short sharp periods ( down to -10C at times) this has been largely correct. Looks like this is going to be another 'Atlantic' winter with only period outbreaks of PM air. Next one probably not until early in the New Year.
On 20 Dec 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Fred - Always going to be an outside bet for any prolonged cold and snow in December for most in the UK in my opinion even in LIA. Wet windy and relatively mild so far this Month. Jan and Feb is always much more likely to deliver the white gold.
On 20 Dec 2019, Fred wrote:
Why is it that the sudden ‘very mild bursts’ forecast by Piers come to fruition spot on yet the extreme cold blasts (caveated) nigh on always water down to the caveat? Not good for the fight against AGW
On 19 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, still quite windy from the S but dry after copious overnight rain, a grey day, 10˚max in town but only 8˚ max with us and still that at 9.30pm, rain setting in after 7pm, quite foggy with the wind having moved into the SE.
On 18 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-2˚C at 7.30, clear as a bell morning with a hard frost and sunshine for a while, N’ly breeze at first, then turning into the S and gradually strengthening in tandem with temp slowly rising to reach 6˚ by 9pm, by which time I had to hold on to my hat while out with the dog.
On 18 Dec 2019, Maria ( Ireland sub :) wrote:
Bye frost & hello rain and wind, windy af around 3pm and fairly unrelenting since.10 deg with a real feel of 6 but feels chill to us as we live in an old ish place so the wind reminds us where all the draughts are, kinda nice though in a way. Big thanks Piers for such a gr8 xmas deal on forecasts, I shouldn't have but I couldn't refuse the fab offer and so clicked that 30d again and got myself a 12 mth pressie, chuffed, Merry Christmas ;-)
On 18 Dec 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Record warmth being recorded in various parts of Austria as the Foehn wind brings warm air from Northern Africa. www.tt.com (Tirol's equivalent to the Yorkshire Post) is reporting 20C in Feldkirch on the Austro-Swiss border, 17C at Jenbach east of Innsbruck and other very warm temperatures north of Salzburg and along the Eastern border of Austria south of Vienna.
You can easily get a 15-30C temperature difference just by reversing wind direction from due south to due north.
This sort of event happened in 1982/3 when I lived over there. It was +1C at 3200m on the Sonnblick in January that year, the Eiswein crop was destroyed by warmth and there was a thunderstorm on the 18th of December that year.
People want to forget these things, but they happened....
On 18 Dec 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
Hard frost last night. Might get snow on the front edge of the milder weather coming. GFS now going for colder weather over the Xmas period with the possibility of snow on Xmas Eve at our level. Also going for quite severe weather in the New Year and the lesson is---expect the opposite.
On 17 Dec 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
A fairly hard frost last night, some showers early this morning must have refroze as the roads were nasty at 7.45 a.m & still at 10 a.m A good amount of black ice and still frozen pavements in parts around town at 12 pm A raw cold day. Still cold and frosty now though wet n windy weather due to return. 0 deg real feel -5 at 10.49pm
On 17 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
1˚C all day here on our hill, up to 4.5˚ in town according to the car thermometer, sunnyish morning with at first a SW’ly wind which gradually turned into the NW, a few hours’ rain during the afternoon, clear starlit evening with no moon yet, so fabulous star gazing. == Ron, I like the idea of a thermal beach towel :-) As it happens, we have a spot in our forest that we call The Beach, no idea anymore why.
On 17 Dec 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Widespread snow cover at Glencoe ski area from top to bottom (700m vertical height difference) - see winterhighland.info for stunning pictures of post-storm white wonderland.
Down here in NW London we are already well past average rainfall for the whole month by the 15th of the month: 75mm since Dec 1st vs 59mm long-term monthly average. This is the fourth month in a row of above-average rainfall, so 2020 will start with no moistures deficits. The month to date is also considerably milder than average.
On 16 Dec 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
GEOFF these GFS charts can show 90, even 180 degree wind direction changes in a couple of runs. The Norwegian MO charts show heavy sleet here in my part of Highland Perthshire on Xmas evening. It'll have to be a thermal beach towel.
On 16 Dec 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Ahh well maybe Turkey on the bbq then? Best get the better half a mankini 😂 Cold frosty start beautiful blue sky and some nice sunshine today frost was settling on my hat just b4 dark another frosty night ahead, one of the things I love best about nights like these are the amazing starry sky and the moon has looked fab lately too.
On 16 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, frosty and raining into it at the same time made for very slippery conditions, very cold and humid SW’ly wind for most of the day, turning into the W by evening, ice disappearing only slowly as the temperature rose in the afternoon, ending at 4˚ by 8.30pm along with some light rain.
On 16 Dec 2019, Geoff wrote:
Sadly, even tonight's ECM is saying get your beach towels out on Xmas Day !!
On 16 Dec 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
MARIA: usual GFS backtracking now
On 16 Dec 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
GLENN: perhaps you should just ask Santa for a skateboard or ,bearing in mind how flat Norwich is, a battery-powered bicycle.
On 15 Dec 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Ps like Ron said with gfs the ecmwf model is also looking promising this morning for some cold around the 23rd into xmas, lots of other places getting colder Europe Scandinavia ect maybe the jet stream will deliver Santa and a sack full of snow who knows!-) plus do the met.ie suspect a return of cold as they termed this coming week, cold conditions will continue until Wed. when there will be a temporary reprieve. Well like others have said winter has only just begun and I'm sure we will get all versions of it by the end of it and hopefully not too horrendous as the reality of driving on ice and snow is not as exciting as the romanticism of it ❄😬☃️
On 15 Dec 2019, Mark Hall wrote:
Paddy,
Got to admit that I was once a self-confessed leftie. The Trotsky brand earlier on. Don't know what I would call myself now. Feel a bit like that Mughal emperor who said on his deathbed "I came here alone and leave as a stranger, I do not know who I really am or what I have been doing". I kind of like that guy.
The certainties of youth become distant memories, don't they?
On 15 Dec 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Cold light frost encrusting random snowflakes on the outside table and roof slates this morning, chippings stuck together like a giant frozen rice krispie cake and frozen row cover dangling precariously torn and tattered with surrender, slumped over the hoops with relief that the wind for now has departed and the ice brings some grounding... Anyhow cold and winter is here in one of its many faces, today more sleety showers with a mix of pretty snowflakes nothing settled but it felt and looked wintry a nice change from plain rain, yellow warning extended into tomorrow 3 deg 1 deg dew point with a real feel of -5 at 10.20pm
On 15 Dec 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
MARK HALL: you might be correct about Glenn, but on the other hand he may have emotional 'issues' we don't or can't fully understand. So far I've given him the benefit of the doubt.
On 15 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, overcast with a light SW’ly breeze, some sunshine throughout the day but temps never rising above 2˚, nice sharp winter’s day, 0˚ at 9pm. == Mark Hall, I can’t suppress a chuckle at your reaction to Andrew Doyle, I haven’t actually read the book, just heard about him yesterday. I know he is a self-confessed leftie, but the fact that he takes the pith out of the wokies more than makes up for that, we can’t expect everyone to be as perfect as we are. I think Francis Wheen also wrote a good history of Private Eye if I’m not mistaken.
On 15 Dec 2019, Glenn wrote:
So now people have got a problem with me liking snow. Ten years ago weatheraction were all about promoting REAL snowy winters. I have not seen snow in two years and everyone expects me to be happy about that. So should i just resign myself to the fact its never going to snow in Norwich again thus meaning im never going to see it again.
On 15 Dec 2019, Mark Hall wrote:
Just checked through your recent posts Glenn and they seem to be of a satirical nature. Fine by me, but what's in it for you? Do you think that the other people who contribute to this site are obsessed with a snowmaggedon or something? Like some misguided Heaven's Gate cult. That you think you should provoke.
There are far easier targets. Check out the lunatics who think CO2 will frazzle humanity.
Believing that Solar Activity influences the climate should not be an outlandish proposal. And expectations of winter extremes at the bottom of a Solar Cycle are not the witless yearnings that you no doubt imagine.
Apologies if I've got you wrong, but you sound like a windup merchant.
On 15 Dec 2019, Glenn wrote:
Ron Greer: I get so frustrated when we have a mild winter. I have never liked mild winters, they have always filled me with fear and i live with the constant feeling that things are going to wrong as so much has gone wrong in my life over the years. Snow provides me with that much needed comfort to make my life seems worth something.
On 15 Dec 2019, Mark Hall wrote:
Paddy, I checked out that non-binary intersectionalist Titania McGrath. Disappointingly, she is not the woke ecosexual babe that many thought she was, but some bloke who co-wrote the Jonathan Pie stuff. A former Corbyn supporter before daft Jeremy lost the plot on democracy and Brexit. And Climate Change for that matter.
You would probably like Francis Wheen's "How Mumbo Jumbo conquered the World". It is truly scary to think about all these utter imbeciles who end up ruling over us. And the near misses like the one we just had.
On 15 Dec 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
GLENN: with all the caveats we have to take with it and its rapid about turns, the latest run of GFS shows an outbreak of polar maritime northerlies over the UK,during the immediate Xmas period with the potential for snowfall that this has
On 15 Dec 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
GLENN: can you tell us the official source of your mild winter claim. Today is the 15th December, just two weeks basically into winter with half of December and all of January and February to go, so who is doing the telepathic reports from the future?
On 14 Dec 2019, C View wrote:
An utterly miserable day west of Glasgow today with constant heavy sleet and rain and strong to gale force winds and dark all day. Temp around 4c bitter and raw.
On 14 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, cloudy all day with a light WSW’ly wind, temperature rose to only 2˚ and was still there at 9pm, cloud having broken up and giving quite a light evening with the moon high in the sky.
On 14 Dec 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Sleety wet snow this morning with the cold showers, yellow warning for snow and ice extended countrywide and tonight snowflakes falling outta the sky, not sure if anything will settle and not subscribed atm but I'm guessing Piers forecasted this or maybe even Paddy lol.. So yeah well done Piers :-)
On 14 Dec 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
List of white xmases in the UK since 1967: 68, 70, 76, 78-82, 84-85, 90, 93, 95-96, 98-01, 04, 09-10, 2013-16. "The Met Office defines a white Christmas as “one snowflake to be observed falling in the 24 hours of 25 December somewhere in the UK”, although the weather forecasters compiled their data on individual countries from their stations across England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland...those living in England have experienced a white Christmas at least 25 times since 1967 – although people may not have seen a single snowflake in some of those years...According to the weather forecasters, the last widespread white Christmas in the UK was in 2010. The Met said: “It was extremely unusual, as not only was there snow on the ground at 83% of stations (the highest amount ever recorded) but snow or sleet also fell at 19% of stations.” They also said that 2015 was also “technically a white Christmas” in the UK with 10% of weather stations recording snow falling."
On 14 Dec 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Glenn
My childhood was in 1970s SE England. From 1st January 1971 to November 30th 1979 we had one day, one day, when we could use a toboggan and it was a freak overnight snowfall in mid spring. I grew up barely seeing snow.
So stop saying things are warmer now. The past ten years there has been far more snow in SE England than there was in most of the 1970s.
1979-87 was a run of cold snowy ones. 1988 and 1989 were unbelievably mild, with high pressure for weeks from Moscow to Madrid in 1989 and 1990.
On 14 Dec 2019, Glenn wrote:
Its now official. Winter 2019/20 is another mild winter. Ive calculated that this will be mild winter No. 25.
On 14 Dec 2019, Fred wrote:
This winter is going the way of 2008/09. The solar minima is deeper than the last, but I also believe we are at the junction of the last solar minima at 08/09. It wasn’t until winter 09/10 and 10/11 did the serious cold and snow strike. I believe winter 20/21 and 21/22 will be hum dingers as there’s a lag of the effects of deep minima. 2008 had 268 blank sunspot days. Today we matched it with 17 days still to go. I believe we could exceed 300 next year. I’m not expecting too much from this winter, we are entering eQBO and next winter we’ll be well into which enhances opportunities for High Latitude Blocking, combined with deep minima........
On 14 Dec 2019, Glenn wrote:
No white christmas then, yet AGAIN. As with the snow and cold winters its the Boomer generation who were privileged with a white christmas.
On 14 Dec 2019, Glenn wrote:
Im getting the feeling that theres someone on here (not mentioning any names) who actually doesnt want snow and a proper cold winter. Its ok for the Boomer generation, they had all their snow and cold winters when they were young and now they dont want Generation X which is what I am to enjoy the same privileges.
On 14 Dec 2019, M. Lewis wrote:
There is a lot of different views on here regarding Climate Change. We need to accept it is happening - the evidence speaks for itself - melting glaciers, destruction of forests across the planet, rising sea levels, increased use of water suppliers by rising world population, trashing the planet.
I believe Piers and David when they say that rising CO2 levels are not caused by humans but they are a result of increasing temperatures which thaws the permafrost and warms the oceans which then release it. The increase in CO2 is also exacerbated by cutting down the forests, as less trees to absorb it! So indirectly it is caused by human activity.
On 14 Dec 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
Settling snow in the showers here from 0700hrs at 140 metres in Highland Perthshire. More depth at Dunkeld.
GFS up to its usual rapidly changing vagaries, but suggests no severe cold weather and everything coming off the Atlantic.
On 14 Dec 2019, Glenn wrote:
Here is my prediction for winter. We will get to March 1st 2020 without seeing a single snow flake. It is absolutely impossible now to get snow in the south east of Britain. Winter last year put an end to snow in South east britain. For us anyway Dr. David Viners comments about snow have come true.
On 13 Dec 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Rainy to start with early yesterday morning quite heavy for a short time then dry for the majority of the day before another round of showers later and into the evening temp dropping after. Cloudy showery start again today dry for a time then more showery rounds fired at us and almost sleety in nature this evening, 3 deg at 11.49pm Paddy, yeah, shocking way to treat your greens :-) great tip for variety will give them a go next year we like nutty lettuces
On 13 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, rain from the start in a clammy NNW wind, not much let up until midday, max temp 6˚, drier afternoon followed by a clear moonlit evening, 3˚ at 9pm. == Mark Hall, I’m sorry, I don’t know what came over me, I forgot about the grievances of lettuce, its stolen seedlinghood, how dare I? :-)) I shall purchase ‘Woke’ by Titania McGrath forthwith and learn my lesson! Who she? See here https://bit.ly/2YRjLOj & here https://bit.ly/2PgNcWO ==CraigM, spot on!
On 13 Dec 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Harris - she's on the world stage promoting policies that will kill millions of people and is a mouth piece for some very nasty people. Why do you think they chose a young girl? Because any criticism becomes verboten, exactly as planned. Personally I don't put any blogs about her, nor do I tweet anymore but that's my decision alone. I wrote back in August "we need pushback on the fake idea of a crisis itself – not Greta who is just a figurehead that will be replaced once her usefulness has passed. We need pushback on the ludicrous idea that we should panic because – all because; #weatherisbad, we need to return Narnia to it’s Goldilocks’ state, that unless we make a decision now under panic and duress we can control the weather!" Anyway, maybe any Greta related stuff can pop to the politics thread because she is a political animal and has very little to do with the weather.
On 13 Dec 2019, Harris Keillar wrote:
Blokes insulting teenage girls for coming out with views which you disagree with is beyond pathetic. If her views are wrong, beat them with science - not bullying insults. The Swedish education system is very different from our hot-house one so being away from school is not the big deal it is here.
On 13 Dec 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Personally, I think all the poor Palestinian children who cannot just go outside riding their bike and playing football in the park have had their childhoods stolen. It would be antisemitic to say that Israeli policy had much to do with that, just as saying that Shai Mazot seeking to 'take down UK politicians' whilst working for Mossad in the UK Israeli embassy would be 'interfering in UK democracy' is undoubtedly proving I am an Iranian agent, not to mention Lavrov's lackey.
Greta Thunberg has done almost nothing, her handlers have just organised a publicity campaign. And the PTB have ensured uncritical knicker wetting amongst the global MSM.
Time for her kibbutz retreat methinks. Then she will become Swedish PM/President by 40.
On 13 Dec 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Harris - the comment in question isn't sexist, it's just saying she is a bit of an a** (quite polite to say with her latest outbursts in mind) and she is, as Tim Pool argued, the epitome of privileged (comes from a well to do family, gets to skip school without penalty, gets taken around the planet in multimillion yatchs and meets World leaders - yeah that's some stolen childhood! ===https://youtu.be/i9dN27w3f0M===
Maybe ask a child in the developing world about a stolen childhood and, I don't know, let them have access to affordable, reliable electricity instead of being some quasi neoliberal green colonialist telling "uncivilised savages who know no better" what to do? Now having said that, please be aware of what you write from here on about Greta as the "tone" is getting a bit close to the mark. Some comments have not been released as result. Thanks all.
On 13 Dec 2019, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 164ft wrote:
St Greta of Thunberg has won an important prestigious award in being named Time Magazine person of the year. Time Magazine is obviously very good at choosing people for this. Previous winners have been noted for their contribution to humanity. In 1938 an Austrian called Adolf Hitler won it and went on to help break down international borders. Twice winner, Josef Stalin did a lot to help people find work in areas of the country that needed them even though the climate there was a bit cold. Ayatollah Khomeini took the honour in 1979, probably for his work in removing the pressure on women by allowing them to wear only one colour - black - and taking away the need for make-up or time spent doing their hair by wearing a burka.
On 13 Dec 2019, Ray wrote:
Personally, I like Greta Thunberg although I know a lot of people like Geoff think she is a little cult.
On 13 Dec 2019, Geoff wrote:
Nothing personal Harris...She is just the butt of a climate-alarmist joke.
On 13 Dec 2019, Satirical Bob wrote:
I agree, Harris! Geoff has clearly mixed-up saintly Greta Thunberg with rising celebrity-climate-change-denier Gretel Thunderpants !!
On 13 Dec 2019, Mark Hall wrote:
Steady on a bit there Paddy.
Your generalisations about "red curly varieties" with "nice nutty tastes" are wholly inappropriate. Sexist, misogynistic and a possible hate crime in terms of mental health issues.
You should be more careful what you write, because there is only one objective truth or interpretation out there. Harris Keillar is the "go to" guy for these rules on what everyone really means when they say things. Always run it past a sanctimonious expert first.
And after all, that lettuce will never forgive you for destroying its future.
On 12 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, overcast with a SSW’ly wind that gradually moved into the SE, dry morning & early afternoon, rain after 4pm and into the evening, temp gradually rising to reach 5˚ at 9pm, by which time the rain turned showery. == Today we harvested the last of our outdoor lettuce, a red curly variety called Louxal which I grew for the first time this year, very nice nutty taste and amazing frost resistance.
On 12 Dec 2019, Harris Keillar wrote:
'I've just heard that Greta Thunberg has won an important award...I think it's 'Rear of the Year' . I enjoy the reasoned weather / climate chat though the above comment is just wrong. It's sexist / misogynistic and not 'just bants'. If there are arguments to be won, they should be won or lost on the science. Greta Thunberg has done more in a year or so than probably most of us have ever done. She is not being pushed by her parents or other 'dark forces'. If she is wrong, then marshall the science - don't lose the argument by using personal attacks. Trump does not understand this which is why she turns all his attempts at belittling her against him very well.
On 12 Dec 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
First proper snowfall at Glencoe down to Rannoch moor with snowfall forecast for several days more (images at www.winterhighland.info).
Heavy rain in NW London on election day started about 30 mins ago 10.15am) and predicted to continue until at least dusk, as Piers predicted weeks ago. Congratulations, that man!
On 11 Dec 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Breezy with light rain showers the odd sunny spell inbetween max 5/6 deg feeling colder after the showers. 2 deg now at 11.46pm
On 11 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, still pretty windy from the W, sunny day though with a max temp of 4˚, no rain, 2˚ by 10pm.
On 11 Dec 2019, Mark Hall wrote:
Yes Geoff,
Said posterior was recently photographed sitting on a £5 grand chair in the eco hovel that she lives in. Her family obviously get kickbacks, but others will get the major proceeds of future exhorbitant climate taxation.
On 11 Dec 2019, Geoff wrote:
I've just heard that Greta Thunberg has won an important award...I think it's 'Rear of the Year'
On 11 Dec 2019, C View wrote:
I have just read that SUV’s are outselling electric cars by 37 to 1. Good to see people ignoring the push for electric cars. Hopefully that will save lots of children having to work in wretched conditions in the cobalt mines
On 11 Dec 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
C VIEW. No missed the debate as was away from home. No surprise in what you observed. Wishy-washy?---that's GFS!
On 11 Dec 2019, C View wrote:
RON . Did you watched the Scottish Party Leaders Debate last night on BBC ? I thought it very telling when they were asked "what unpopular decisions are you willing to take to fight climate change?"
None of them gave long or passionate answers and didn't speak on this topic as vigorously as they did on others. In fact they were pretty wishy washy giving me the impression that they don't really belive in it and are doing the minimum to to keep brainwashed people on side and trying not to let slip it's all hogwash. I think the person asking the question expected them to say all cars and air travel would be banned. In a strange way it was slightly reassuring.
On 11 Dec 2019, M. Lewis wrote:
Vote for WeatherAction actually. For a Stronger Forecast. Let's Get Weather Done.
On 10 Dec 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Finished planting hedge Wed 11th, Thurs. & Friday was milder and with showers. Saturday a pleasant day dry with some sunny spells for a short time followed by a breezy evening with showers. Sunday into Monday was a washout with heavy rain and lots of wind, winter really making itself known with our first named storm, we had a yellow weather warning with some counties on red some on orange so we escaped the worst of it despite it being a noisey ole night. Another yellow wind warning yesterday popped up and we had a mini revisit of the previous weather, looks like Friday could be a rinse n repeat too, feels cold to me 4 deg with 0 deg dew point and -1 real feel at 11.15pm
On 10 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
3˚C at 7.30 with a powerful SW’ly wind, a dark day with lots of showers in the morning, somewhat drier in the afternoon, max temp 8˚, clearing up by evening leaving a moonlit sky, wind abated somewhat and turned into the W, 4˚ at 9.30pm.
On 10 Dec 2019, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 164ft wrote:
Since my central heating went on - at the same time as last year pretty much, I have used more gas so it has been a colder period this year than last year since the start of November. Will it continue as we seem to be getting warmer weather than the December forecast so far. My log notes that there were 2 weeks over Jan-Feb where I written cold and the weekly gas use topped 20 units on the only 2 occasions. Hit 20 units last week. Glad I don't have electric heating but of course the morons intend to take our gas away. I can only hope we have rioted and overthrown them before that happens.
On 10 Dec 2019, DaveT wrote:
It hammered it down with rain as I left work this evening. Got drenched.
The BBC forecast said rain, not torrential wear your boots and a big raincoat rain.
On 10 Dec 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
That was northerlies over the Xmas period--I should have specified.
On 10 Dec 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
Last two runs of GFS show northerlies developing over the British Isles, so we might reasonably expect a westerly or even a warm southerly instead.
DAVID: if Boris wins we can certainly expect more Dickensian winters and statues built to Marley and Scrooge.
Bah HumbUK!
On 09 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, strong N’ly wind with showers until midday, quite a few sunny intervals, max temp 3˚, wind dying down by evening, hazy moonlight and 0˚ by 9pm.
On 09 Dec 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Glenn and Rich my thoughts are that this winter will more likely be wet and windy than very cold. Rich the oceanic and solar cycles drive our climate and weather and both SST's and Solar activity are in decline so despite some lag, you would expect LIA conditions to continue and become more prominent.This does not always mean snow though!! Drought, floods cold springs and yes some very cold winters. I would expect a cluster of cold winters to begin 2020 for the UK. Just my take on things. Busy now for a few weeks at least, so merry Christmas to all and good luck to Boris😉
On 09 Dec 2019, Glenn wrote:
This is clearly going to be a repeat of last winter. It all went wrong in December last year and it seems the same is happening again with loads of wet windy weather instead of what are we supposed to get. Could winter 2019/20 already be written off today in the southeast anyway?
On 09 Dec 2019, Rich wrote:
Winter weather forecasts in for traditional forecasts for UK, and all point again as per few previous winters to a mild winter. If we keep getting these mild winters then as Glen pointed out the warmist's may win the argument, unless by some freak the UK is alone in missing the LIA conditions? I will throw this out there as a question, could we be experiencing LIA weather patterns but find that Global warming is swamping result, low ice at arctic, low ocean oxygen levels, record global warmth but blocking patters in UK western Europe with dry or wet weather. I made a prediction of another mild winter last winter for 2019/20 -despite the cold hawks predicting ice armageddon- looking safe bet currently.
On 09 Dec 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Looking mild wet and windy in the main, with the jet coming at us!
On 09 Dec 2019, Gerry 45d 164ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
It is possible that in 7 days time we set a new record in the space age (strangely only going back to 2006!) of the highest number of spotless days on the sun in a year. Interesting times. Is it a coincidence that there is a record level of northern hemisphere snow for this time of year? Nearly 9000 low temperature records have been set across the US during November. Lots of Thanksgiving snow records set too. A period of relatively dry weather has seen the lakes in the fields dry up and there was even a match played on our local ground.
On 09 Dec 2019, Steve Devine (Moderator) wrote:
Hi, please be advised that due to technical issues with the website it was not possible to submit comments until now. We apologise for any inconvenience caused.
On 09 Dec 2019, Steven wrote:
What's happened to the comments the last one on the 3rd of december
On 03 Dec 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Again frosty n foggy the last 2 mornings, slightly harder more widespread frost this morning than previous and it was a cold day to work outside again though quicker to clear with the sunshine getting through the fog earlier. The ground softened by 11 a.m which was great so could get the hedge trench dug but still hard enough to keep tidy got mucky by the time I got half way, planted half the hedge after lunch but temp got me by 4pm and couldn't feel my feet through snow boots. Great seeing a pheasant & a kestrel today all the animals are out stocking up :) Actually warming up this eve and 5/6 deg at 11pm hoping any showers in the morning pass on through quickly as work to finish.
On 03 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, bright with a very light SW’ly breeze, picking up a bit later, altogether a fairly sunny day with a max temp of 7˚, no rain, back down to 2˚ by 9.30pm.
On 03 Dec 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
CRAIG 350: Aye even the warmo-beeb etc are showing this and the operational GFS runs too. The latter showing some possibility of an eastie -beastie at the end of the run
On 03 Dec 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Weather increasingly looks turning quite cold next week with snow anywhere around election daynor Fri 13th. Far too early to tell everyone but its starting to come into range. Most models showing Sub zero upper air temps and it could easily lock in. A blog via netweather discussing ===https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/9961-cold-snowy-general-election-day-next-week-a-possibility-according-to-the-weather-models===
Keep an eye out as the clock ticks down. / Ron - the operational run hops around a lot. Keep an eye on the mean spreads. They give a better idea of direction.
On 03 Dec 2019, Gerry 45d 164ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
It was disappointing to read the Jeremy Clarkson had said that he believed in global warming, however in a later piece he indicated that he was not a complete convert. So if he was presented with the evidence of the cause of what he had seen, he would change his view. It makes you wonder how many others are like this and are just being overwhelmed by the lies poured out by the BBC and Guardian without challenge from the rest of the legacy media. The Met O are making claims about Autumn rainfall based on their lie that records only go back to 1910 when in fact paper records go back further and in the case of England and Wales a lot further back. This is interesting since they have noted that Scotland was drier. They are also claiming July to be the hottest month evah. But of course the lies will come thick and fast while the latest UN festival of hot air is in progress.
On 03 Dec 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS certainly going for a fairly long cold spell after the 8th with some low tracking low pressures from the Atlantic bumping into, so maybe even Glenn will see some snow in Norfolk the world's indicator city for climate change !
On 02 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, cloudy but bright early on, light W’ly breeze gradually turning into the SW, thickening cloud, light rain by afternoon lasting into the evening, still 6˚ at 9pm.
On 02 Dec 2019, Glenn wrote:
Its now been 22 months in norfolk without snow. How much longer is this going to go on for? I reckon nobody knows.
On 02 Dec 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
For an honest overview of snow in Northern American mountain regions, see:
http://bestsnow.net
and click on 'Summary of 2019/2020 season'.
Tony Crocker, a professional statistician, has been collating primary data from resorts for well over two decades.
As of 30/11, many areas were well down on normal snowfall, with a few outliers like SoCal and Arizona well above normal. Whistler in BC Canada has had the driest November on record.
Just been another dump at the beginning of December so the next report in two weeks time will indicate whether things are getting closer to normal.
This shows the importance of overall pictures, not scaremongering about one event in isolation.
On 01 Dec 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
A light frost this morning, our most favourite start to the day in the winter, crisp cold and eventually sunny :) Temp. Dropped cold early and mist crept in low across the fields, -1 clear and cold at 11pm enjoyed 20 mins outside star gazing tonight fab night sky.
On 01 Dec 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, another brilliantly sunny day with a light NW’ly wind, as of late afternoon temp was slowly rising to end up at 3˚ by 10pm.
On 01 Dec 2019, Glenn wrote:
Does anyone else besides me think that we are losing the war against the warmists? With groups like extinction rebellion, the possibility of a labour goverenment on December 12th and even Jeremy Clarkson now says he believes in man made climate change.
On 01 Dec 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
Another very sharp frost last night with the local mill lade being frozen. Standard models not predicting any really severe winter weather for the next 10 days, with any chillier weather coming in off the North Atlantic and surprisingly little precipitation of any sort for all but the Western Highlands.
On 30 Nov 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Not one but many mistakes made!-) No frost last night oops infact around 2 deg and overcast, Not Paddy's forecasts I meant Mr 8 deg.'s aka Janes weather reports :-) And must have read met.ie wrong as a lil cold rain this morning and a lil bit more later but it was mostly a dry day but cool, the only warmth was melting the toaster this eve. by accidentally pressing it down and heating the biscuit tin on top of it, running outside with a smoking toaster something everyone should try once in a while a good workout and a sure sign of gw when ones biscuits are bbq'd ...Should know by now never to take a week off it takes 2 to get back in the zone 😊
On 30 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-3˚C at 7.30, good frost under a clear sky, brilliant blue sky all day with a light NW - W’ly breeze, thermometer showed 0˚ all day, though the one in the car said 0.5˚, hazy sky by 9.30pm with -2˚. ==Maria: “Paddy’s forecasts”? Shome mishtake, shurely? Plain Jane reports more like :-)
On 30 Nov 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
really sharp this morning here ( coldest so far)with numerous reports of -10C in Central Highlands. So a cold end to November with some very mild weather this coming week, so shades of 1985. GFS all over the shop again, but suggests a less than mild December
On 30 Nov 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
As today will be sunny, cold and dry, I can say that November in NW London was cooler than average with av. max going to be close to 1C cooler than average. Rainfall was 128mm just a tiny bit less than double the norm. All three autumn months were wetter than average with a combined rainfall of 338mm recharging the drought parched ground to depth.
The levels of lying about 'climate' are really getting silly. Much greater N Hemisphere snow cover than average.
On 29 Nov 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Forgot to say we also saw the sun today, it was amazing shining away this afternoon in all its gw glory for the first time in a fortnight, felt almost warming for an hour, as has been said already and numerous times by the kids at home and in surrounding schools "how dare you!"
On 29 Nov 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Its always an interesting read when absent for a couple of weeks, esp. Late Autumn early Winter :)) Mark Hall no offence taken here either, I too did too much Shakespeare at school in the u.k, still think there should be more science and geography taught :-) Well I've had a bit of a rest and basically Paddy's forecasts have been on par with here except add more rain to the mix, IWO reported up to the 24th Nov the mth had been a washout with up to 8 trillion litres of rain across the country! We did just recently have a lot of rain and days of headaches must have had an R5? Mist over the fields and now cold tonight think we will be frosty come the morning. Looking forward to getting back to it outside finishing cutting hedges and planting other hedges as hopefully a dry weekend. Ps was good to see the chief forecaster back on the blogck, weather must be around the corner ;)
On 29 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
(Thurs 28th, couldn't post last night for some reason):4˚C at 7.30, feeling rather colder in the fresh N’ly wind, a few light showers but also glimpses of the sun, max temp 5˚, still 2˚ by 9.30pm.
29.11.19: 0˚C at 7.30, light but cold N’ly breeze, a few light showers in the morning but mostly bright and sunny, max temp 3˚, clear starry sky in the evening, 0˚ at 9pm. Vimtobeeb saying that slight warming will take place next week.
On 29 Nov 2019, C View wrote:
Nice to see the centre for hydrology and ecology is saying the recent flood causing rains in Yorkshire were a once in 60 years event and nothing to do with climate change
On 29 Nov 2019, M Lewis wrote:
It looks like the UK weather is "freezer ready". Let's Get Winter Done!
On 29 Nov 2019, out_east wrote:
Nice to see NPOWER (EON) is throwing loads of the workforce out of work now (up to 4000) on the basis they are not making money,- profits falling 25%??
I wonder what that could be due to?
Can it be?
HAVING TO subsidise masses of German and British wind farm unreliable power sources, and driving up prices by being forced to provide 100% back up power for the "renewables".
The only renewable thing about them is needing to dismantle them and rebuild the things every 5 years instead of the claimed 20!
On 28 Nov 2019, M Lewis wrote:
Lorna Doone is already doing her freezing business over in the USA for Thanksgiving. Bring on December 12 in the UK and let the Weather cast its Vote!
On 27 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
The man formerly known as Paddy would like to be known as Mr 8˚C until further notice as this is now the 5th day of this level of temperature, 6th day of relentless gloom. Dark & damp, with the wind gradually turning from SE to NE, more rain on the way overnight, clearly visible on the radar, but tomorrow promises to be brightening up and the wind firmly turning into the N as the Greenland High asserts itself, so with luck it’ll be goodbye gloom & hello frost for a while. == Mark Hall, no offence taken :-) == Craig, sound advice re not hitting people over the head with arguments, which in reality is always a sign of weakness. And I agree that we are winning, the relentless braying of the media confirms that, and we were greatly helped by little Miss Howdareyou.
On 27 Nov 2019, Gerry 45d 164ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
I was noting that there are 34 days left this year and spotless days have reached 250 with a current stretch of 14 days. Looking pretty odds on the exceed 2009 with 260 and 2008 with 268 spotless days. Rain. Buckets of it. Worst spell so far overnight landing on our already saturated land so the roadside brook is at the top of the banks and may even spill over come home time. all ditches, streams, brooks and the River Eden are full. Water is running off the fields, even the footpath to the station was a mini river of water coming out a of wall. The fields are full of lakes. And the postponed football games are building up. No chance for our cup game tomorrow night and hard to believe that Saturday match is possible. And to think that come Wednesday last week it was looking much drier.
On 27 Nov 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Couldn't agree more Craig about LIA and stuck weather patterns, like what we have been in for most of November. With the meandering jet stream. Was it early 2012, when we had drought warnings because the environment agency said the water table would take 10 Years to recover? 6 weeks later levels were normal again!
On 27 Nov 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
@Glenn - winters are so dire you say the last decent one was in 2018, LAST Year! I agree it was a seriously impressive sequence of 2 very cold events I might add (end Feb/Early Mar + ~Paddy's Day) , over 10C below norm & the coldest since the 18thC + 19thC for late Feb + Mar = good example my friend. I'm not sure if I should be applauding or saying get a hold of yourself man? 😉 // Not sure of this winter as lots of signs for a late one (QBO) plus perturbations in the stratosphere seem to be kicking off (warm Feb in 2019? That's the dice of a SSW). The models for what they are worth have a large spread of temps but at least a cold dry period beckons after this warm - forecasted by Piers - blip. We are at 249 days of zero sunspots, 75%, of the year. If we continue at this rate we get ~289 days compared to 2009 total: 260 days (71%) + 2008 total: 268 days (73%) = Deep minimum. Night all. Fascinating times ahead.
On 27 Nov 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Leave the arguing, & point scoring aside. To win allies, drop the dogma & just be a person. Do we really want to crush people just to win? We can open eyes to the debate, without even mentioning the debate which is as stupid as arguing over unicorn farts. What the Green New Deal will do is kill people. Instead we need to kill ideas. The alarmists are just shouting "Fire! Fire! Fire!" trying to panic everyone because they have lost the debate & are relying on emotion. Be calm. Be strong d make your listener realise what will happen if they rush to act. You'd be surprised how receptive ordinary people are. Most people I have met think ER are nut jobs, whatever they think of CAGW, but we do not want to be a mob (whilst the idiot pulled off the train was satisfying the kicking he recieved made me feel deeply uneasy). People will listen. Don't promise snowmageddon. Just point out it's nothing new. You do not win arguments by beating people over the head. We are winning. The media are lying
On 27 Nov 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
After a few years on Twitter my account has come to life as I discussed a BBC story about Victoria Falls maybe drying up due to... Oh no.... Climate change! 95-96 was worse, it happened in the 70s and was blamed on global cooling but hey ho. It's pleasing as finally it's the crux of the matter - neocolonalist green imperialism (control!) disguised as do good green crap.
"This is what the #ClimateEmergency is really about. It's not progressive to be a neocolonalist in green sheep's clothing". I have been able over the past few months to hit hard at those who are open and not closed off by dogma (they cannot be reached and just block you because one mustn't guilt their crusader worldview) and make them realise the consequences of green action (who cares if the savages die eh? It's good for them) === https://twitter.com/CraigM350/status/1199497928043315200?s=19 === I've been pleasantly surprise how receptive many are. Hit them with facts on this...
On 27 Nov 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
with quite benign intervening months with "samey" weather. This consisted of limited rainfall except in & around the heat plumes which were driven by low pressure to our Sth bringing needed moisture, barring the very wet start to June. Most of these periods seemed to coincide with lunar phases. What was notable was how as the blocks moved East the heat eased until from mid Sept the deluge started, which hasn't really left us since then & was "due" if you'd been watching. This is very reminiscent of 1914, another low solar period with static weather of a certain "type". So if you want to argue otherwise be my guest. Its not like we've had standard zonal these past few years.
On 27 Nov 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
I find myself saying this several times a year but LIA (or MIAl does not = cold exclusively, winter or summer or any other season. It's all about a meandering jetstream with long latitudial fetches Nth + Sth characterised by stationary blocking highs & persistent weather types bringing high & low temps, deluge & drought etc. Don't believe me? Let's look at this year 2019, albeit from the perspective of Berks. We started the year with high pressure that was actually quite unprecedented in modern recording (20thC) for its persistence. Our was boring in a sense but did at least bring nice fog & frost, leading, at the end of Jan, to 24hrs+ of snowfall to the Sth + close to -10C temps. Bath did rather well IIRC. This was followed the next month by record breaking Feb temps. That's starter's. From there we had a series that included an end of month plumes of often quite extreme heat (record heat Easter /July anyone?) that continued until Sept....
On 26 Nov 2019, Mark Hall wrote:
This royal throne of kings, this sceptred isle, this earth of majesty, this seat of Mars, this other Eden, demi-paradise.
This fortress built by nature for herself, against infection and the hand of war.
This happy breed of men, this little world, this precious stone set in the silver sea, which serves it in the office of a wall or as a moat defensive to a house, against the envy of less happier lands.
This blessed plot, this earth, this realm, this England.
We never get a LIA as bad as the continentals, but we'll get something. Yoshimura cycle wise 1840-60 gave us an Irish potato famine. And 1900-20 the Spanish influenza epidemic. The 1960-80 downturn had today's warmist nutters predicting an Ice Age. So 2020-40 will leave some marks. We're only just getting started.
Deepest apologies to Paddy and Maria for that Anglophone rant by Shakespeare, but he meant well and saw the danger of an EU superstate.
On 26 Nov 2019, Andy L (Cambridge) (occasional sub.) wrote:
GLENN: you could at least wait until winter begins before commencing your annual "we'll never see snow in Norfolk again" chirruping. For heaven's sake get a grip man.
On 26 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
What to say, yet another dark day of 8˚C throughout, 5th day in a row, more rain than yesterday, E’ly wind, end of story.
On 26 Nov 2019, Tony ex sub wrote:
Rhys I can understand Glenn's frustration...I was a member for a few years but found the fcasts wernt too accurate for my area .....for the last 3 years all we have seen is prepare for lia including the uk but let's be honest the last few winters have been mild ....you can only keep telling people prepare for so long before they dont believe you ....its like James madden Express every year is gonna be 3 months of hell every year wrong ....I know its hard to predict but surely we need to tone down the apocalypse style forecats .....I read iceagenow.....so I know other countrys have it bad but never us .....must be the island we are
On 26 Nov 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
So I had a win on a football bet Fred and decided to get the forecast out of curiosity. Stand by my last comment re cold further East. I honestly do not see that happening. Maybe if the slat was adjusted 500 miles to the east then possibly. Ron & Fred may I suggest you (like myself Years ago) give up the model watching for far ahead. Pointless task and it had been covered mm any times on here how useless they are. Jet profile and general sypnotics, for 3 days ahead is fine.
On 26 Nov 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Glenn
You really must grow up and stop equating UK weather with global climate.
Go look at large areas of NE Russia right now, where minimum temperatures have been 20C LOWER than average, and bear in mind that average lows there right now are -30C and lower...so they have nights below -50C this week...
This autumn/early winter is a bit like 1985/6. I was at Uni in Cambridge then and the Cam froze for 6 weeks in second term.
A bit of mildness in late November does not say what winter will actually be like. It may be mild, it may be a cold one.
Let us see, eh?
On 26 Nov 2019, Glenn wrote:
So that's it then, another mild winter to add to the ever increasing list since 1988. When is Britain going to see real winter conditions again like we had back in Febrauary 2018?
On 25 Nov 2019, Peterg wrote:
The Met Office, according to this report from the Dail Mail, have just issued their forecast for December - it`s going to be milder than normal and very wet. So now we have a good to very good idea of what this December will bring - colder than average with the threat of snow near the end of December. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7723679/Snow-chance-Dreams-white-Christmas-dashed.html
On 25 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
Yep, it’s yet another one of 8˚C all day, very dark with drizzle off & on in the obligate SE’ly wind, that’s all there is to say.
On 25 Nov 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
Well, GFS are now backtracking on intensity of the PM outbreak on 6-8th Dec.. No surprise there, then.
On 25 Nov 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
The accuracy of the GFS projections in the first half of the month has now disappeared to be replaced by the standard chimpanzee-foot-painting coloring exercise. They are using a dark blue palette for the 6-8th of December suggestive of a very profound and cold outbreak of Polar Maritime air. I expect the next run to show mild southerly winds for the same period.
On 24 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C all day again, same régime as yesterday except the rain was mostly light in the SE’ly wind, the river Dee is pretty high though not dangerously so yet and according to Meteosoup we should have less rain tomorrow and Tuesday but Wednesday looks pretty wet again. This mild spell has been well forecast by Piers.
On 24 Nov 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
it's almost hilarious how many shuffles per hour GFS can do over the extent and duration of Polar Maritime air over Britain and Ireland in the next week or so.
On 23 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C at 7.30 and for the rest of the day, which was overcast and dark, dry kind of morning but rain setting in from about 2pm onwards and hardly ever stopping, quite a lot more coming, judging from the radar image, E’ly wind throughout.
On 23 Nov 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
As I correctly predicted earlier in the week, large numbers on Northern Austrian ski resorts are now green valleys and many south facing ski slopes are green too. Go check Kitzbuehel, Ellmau, Unken, the south facing slopes of the Glemmtal, Damuels, plenty of others. No imminent Ice Age there!
Northern Switzerland now has 30-60% of normal snow levels at 2000m. SLF data, not my assertions. As you go south in Switzerland, levels rise to over 200% of normal at 2000m. Saas Fee, Bosco Gurin and the Engadin rejoice; Jungfrau, Toggenburg etc remain glum.
All the Sudstau has done is load up the Southern Alps, which it will continue to do for a day or so yet.
On 22 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, overcast, raining off & on all day with a good old SSE’ly wind - when the wind is in this quarter, it usually goes on for some time - , max temp 6˚, some beefy showers by evening, 5˚ again by 9pm.
On 22 Nov 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
If we were to have a repeat of 2010, we would be seeing strong signals by now and looking at the current state of play, I just don't see it happening. Jet South yes and blocks to the west and east may take shape/hold but any true cold will more than likely be to our east.❄️❄️❄️ Rather strange looking Northern hemisphere though, I must admit.
On 22 Nov 2019, out_east wrote:
"Massive area of Western Russia lacking snow,"
Don't know what you are on about!
Do you actually ever go there??
I do!
I can assure you we had loads of snow, and much earlier than normal. It was absolutely freezing in late sept, (where snow fell in Sweden), then an incredibly WET october in the Baltic - never stopped raining!
After that it all froze solid until 7th November, then mild all over again.
Now it's set to turn extra cold, as a massive anticylone built up over the west part...it's been bitter with a gale from the EAST since 2 days ago all over Baltic, Poland as far west as the centre.
forecast is a beautiful warm few days as a burst, then end of next week the cold is back with a vengeance with masses of snowfall...time to get skiing in the alps like they have been in the Pyrenees last week..
Better know your stuff or be frequent travellers like me.
I Ural right now it's approaching -20C at night.. NOVEMBER...that's early for winter, so much lower to come in
On 22 Nov 2019, M Lewis wrote:
Ron, re: BBC Weather forecast - it is provided by METEOGROUP. They have a vested interest in supporting their client the BBC with climate change propaganda. BBC pays them £millions for the weather service - they don't bite the hand that feeds! Alternatively, The Met Office forecast for late November and early December says confidence at this time is low "Confidence becomes relatively low by early December but there is a chance of it turning colder again with frost/fog in the North and unsettled weather persisting further south".
On 22 Nov 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
Just caught the end of the weather forecast on the BBC Breakfast programme, where the long term projection for the winter was for this milder spell to continue right through December, but with a prospect for something colder in the latter part of the winter. This is of course at variance with the recent GFS run and the 10 day projections of other standard models such as the Norwegian Met Office.( a warmist site)
On 22 Nov 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
oooooops ! Aren't standard models wonderful--GFS now back to predicting a major PM outbreak in early December, with the mild southerlies now heading for Greenland.
On 21 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
5˚C at 7.30, strong SSE’ly wind again, fairly sunny morning, cloudy afternoon with rain starting up after 2pm and lasting off & on into the evening, max temp 8˚, back down to 5˚ by 9pm.
On 21 Nov 2019, C View wrote:
Further propaganda coming to a TV near you soon.
A BBC show demonising meat production and eating
Usual guff about agriculture being a massive greenhouse gas source
On 20 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, strong SSE’ly wind blowing all day, overcast with clouds going north at a fair clip, dry though with a max temp of 7˚, still windy by 9.30pm with 6˚ again.
On 20 Nov 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
FRED & STEVE: yup GFS flipped again, now back to mild south westerlies for early Dec.
On 20 Nov 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2019&ui_day=323&ui_set=2
is NH snow extent for 19/11/2019. Massive area of Western Russia lacking snow, North America has more in NE and less in mid West and Asia has more excess than lack.
But that diagram says that although right now there is greater coverage than average it is not wildly extreme.
The Foehn will raise freezing levels in Northern Alps to 2500m late in the week, so northern alpine ski areas are going to have a lot of snow loss below 2000m, which in Austria is often close to the resort summits. Western Italy is going to get loaded this time...
Big snow depths have not been lacking the past few winters, but very hot summers have melted everything easily. 600cm has been recorded at three separate stations to my certain knowledge this decade and each time melt was complete by late summer.
People wanting glaciers to advance need cooler summers more than snowier winters.....
On 20 Nov 2019, Steve Devine wrote:
Hi Ron, if this is a repeat or close match to December 2010 then it's in line with the analysis I commented on further below with regards to extremely close correlation of temperatures for the last half of 2010 compared with 2019. Could this be a hidden 9 year cycle which Piers remarked upon? Time will tell...
On 20 Nov 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
FRED; Aye I see GFS has flipped yet again and is now suggesting a sharp end to November and a severe PM outbreak in early December---shades of 2010?
On 20 Nov 2019, Fred wrote:
Models this morning going forward to end of Nov into early December are very very interesting indeed. I suggest folk get Piers’ December forecast.....it’s a very important forecast.
On 20 Nov 2019, Fred wrote:
https://i2.wp.com/electroverse.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/NH-snow-mass-Nov-2.jpg?w=800&ssl=1
Rhys
Widespread is not OTT at all.....it’s phenomenal
On 19 Nov 2019, Rich wrote:
Well, drought well and truly over after last 5-6 weeks rain, we needed it in SE Cambs.
We've had more frosts so far than we managed in whole of run up to Xmas last year -2 this morning and very pretty. Suggestions on here of colder wintry weather in Dec, most conventional long term forecasts seem to be going for an average or mild winter again, nothing unusual for Dec...so we shall wait and see who's right, fingers crossed but not holding breath.
On 19 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-4˚C at 7.30, good hard frost under a an all night clear sky, light NW’ly breeze and quite sunny for a while but then cloud started moving in and by afternoon the sky was overcast and the wind started turning into the SW, heralding the end of the present cold spell. Temps slow to lift at first but then gradually moving upwards to 3˚ by 9pm.
On 19 Nov 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Fred
The snowfall in the Alps has been very, very assymetric. 300cm have fallen in parts of Sudtirol, in the southern side valleys of the Inn two metres is widespread and 150cm is common in Osttirol and parts of Kaernten.
Some of the poster children for the January 2019 Nordstau like Innsbruck Nordkette, Hochfilzen, Waidring and Lofer had much less snow and in addition, lower down rainfall courtesy of Foehn winds mean 'How green are my valleys'.
So talk of generalised 'winter' is misleading: a blocking pattern for two weeks has loaded up the southern/southeastern Alps but left the northern Alps distinctly lacking.
It is the same in the US: California, Oregon and Washington are lacking snow but Colorado and Wyoming had record breaking Octobers.
Similar things happen in Scotland when stalled SWlies hitting cold air load up Glencoe ski area, whereas northerlies load up the Lecht and the Cairngorms and Beasts from the East load up Glenshee.
On 18 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
-1˚C at 7.30, good frost, brilliant bright day with a light NW’ly breeze, max temp 3˚ but all shady places remaining frosty, -2˚ at 10pm. == Ron, same here, so we’re into thinning in our forest for firewood and giving our hedges a serious haircut, in the garden I had to put bubble wrap over my celery which is still in the ground as storing it is not so easy.
On 18 Nov 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS has been uncannily( and unusually) accurate this month and David and Fred it's now predicting a very mild start to December after certainly up here, at least, a rather cold November ( we are due a -10C frost tonight after another very sharp one last night). Again this takes me back to November 1985 when it was even more severe especially in the latter half, which was then followed by an exceptionally mild first week in December. Paddy, first November for several years when I can't transplant or re-pot due to frozen trays and seedbeds.
On 18 Nov 2019, stephen parker wrote:
For David ( yorkshire ) You're forgetting about the Beast from the East ! )
On 17 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, only a slight frost though, NW’ly breeze keeping up all day, occasionally strengthening, quite bright and sunny in the morning, cloudy in the afternoon, max temp 4˚ but no rain, 4˚ at 9pm.
On 17 Nov 2019, M Lewis wrote:
RE: UK Weather late November / early December 2010. It is most interesting to note the Met Office record of severe cold weather events experienced right across the UK.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/case-studies/uk-snow-2010
NOTE: In 2019 there is a FULL MOON on December 12. You can draw your own conclusions! I'm dreaming of a...….
On 17 Nov 2019, Andy B 45D wrote:
Boris should have consulted Piers about the timing of this election #snow
On 16 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, overcast and wet from overnight rain, N’ly breeze as for the previous 3 days, dry morning, some light showers in the afternoon and evening, max temp 5˚, down to 4˚ by 9pm.
On 16 Nov 2019, Andy B 45D SE Wales wrote:
Hi Piers what a forecast for December could be very interesting after all the SGSM wet weather we have had 114 mm here for Nov after 284 for Oct
Most important to get the 30D out on time for December ( and possibly should be made public)
On 16 Nov 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Autumn rainfall in our back garden in NW London now totalling 304mm, above 150% of normal. November rainfall edging toward 100mm, currently 94mm. average daily max temps are currently below monthly average which means we need a mild spell for it not to be a cold month indeed. av daily min is above average, but I suspect that my min/max hung against the outside wall may mean the thermometer does not record true cold temps accurately. It recorded 1.7C the night my jug collecting rainfall froze over.
Very deep snow levels now in Southern Austrian Alps and the Italian dolomites. osttirol shut most of its schools on Friday, telling children to ride out the storm indoors. There are also some daily depth records in the Upper Engadine for mid November.
On 16 Nov 2019, Fred wrote:
Massive early falls of snow in Italy, early snow appearing widely.......a winter to remember could be here (was going to say on it’s way.....)
On 16 Nov 2019, Fred wrote:
David (Yorkshire) et al
I have been and am watching the models closely and as we close in towards December...very interesting. If you haven’t got the December deal, please get it. The models are very much showing the flow of Piers’ November cast.....timings do alter a little but not of real importance if the synoptic pattern flow is correct (as Piers always mentions a slight timing deviation is possible). And it’s looking correct. I cannot wait for next month. Get it and be ready.
On 15 Nov 2019, @Piers_Corbyn London Chief Forecaster wrote:
Hi all Great comms!
That snow was nice!
I like the Obs about Boris and Cobra and me!
Of course in reality for this sort of stuff, although a PM CAN lay down the law, the civil service come in big and heavy and tell politicians what to do.
Frankly though the state apparatus needs to know that massive deluges are a normal feature of Little Ice Age weather.
2010-2019 similarities interesting, Steve. A 9 year lunar- nodal (single node) cycle could be at play. However its not clockwork. Nevertheless such lunar affects are logically more important in periods of LOW solar activity as we are in.
MEETINGS. As you may have seen I've been doing a lot of public meetings recently.
They've been great fun and interesting discussions so have a look at the list of home page RHS and come along! AND organise one in your area.
@Action4Life_ is expanding and there is now a new Action4Life group - @Action4LifeN for the NorthWest. What about your patch?
Top weather thanks, Piers, @Piers_Corbyn
On 15 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, overnight rain on frozen ground made for slippery conditions, biting NE’ly wind, staying cloudy all day with really heavy downpours in the afternoon, occasional breaks in the clouds revealing the moon in the evening, still showery, 5˚ at 9pm. Was digging chicory roots between showers, for forcing, they keep us in fresh salads all winter, along with corn salad and bought-in iceberg.
On 15 Nov 2019, M Lewis wrote:
The Government held another emergency COBRA meeting yesterday to discuss the wet weather and floods. What a ship of fools! Piers has UK weather forecast for rest of November and December "oven ready", yet Boris won't invite him to the COBRA meetings. Bring on December 12 and Lorna Doone.
On 14 Nov 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Interesting Fred. However, equally those said conditions could lead to very unsettled weather over the UK. We shall see.
On 14 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30, not as cold as expected but still cold enough to give a good hoar frost, light snow shower around 8 and after that the temperature began to rise, eventually hitting 4 ˚. We also had a bit of sunshine through the morning, winds were light and generally from the NW, surprisingly we had light rain by 8pm on top of a still frozen ground in parts, creating slippery conditions. Cloudy sky all day and tonight, so the moon wasn’t as powerful as yesterday, 2˚ by 9pm. Seasonal transition weather.
On 14 Nov 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Cold all week, frosty start on Tuesday another raw day despite blue sky and sunshine all morning and finished the yard areas that needed chippings and waved the white flag with a swollen shoulder / neck & swapped the freezing outdoors for freezer packs indoors :-/ Wednesday cold sleet rain with 4 deg feeling like -4 , snow in Carlow Portlaoise and I believe a few other places too, lots of people saying how early for here. Cold blustery today 7 deg with a real feel of 0 went shopping and everyone walking along saying how cold it is, tiny one wrapped up kept saying brrr to and closing her eyes whilst walking :)) So yeah winters edging on in...
On 14 Nov 2019, Fred wrote:
Amazing ice recovery in the arctic last 2 weeks, and GW models have large ‘warm anomalies’ displaying....which quite frankly do not match recorded ground temps. The arctic has very widespread cold this year and getting colder. US continent doesn’t develop its own record cold ‘cold pool’ in Nov, that has to come from a seriously widespread cold arctic.....this following early large swathes of date record continental cold over recent months, the last cyclical warm ocean pulse has passed and that’s why we are seeing this rapid ice recovery. The sun is dropping into serious deep minima territory.....Piers knows this and knows that the acceleration into LIA will only increase over the coming years. December won’t be mild.....
On 14 Nov 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID Yorkshire: The only one I can remember -up here is November 1985 when we had a snowball fight on Guy Fawkes night. Can't say that the following December is etched in my mind, but I do remember the following 1986 February-April period being very cold and indeed snow on the hills into early June.
On 13 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
Yesterday 12th: 6˚C at 7.30, quite a bit of rain overnight, feeling raw in the cold N’ly wind in spite of the relatively high temperature. Rain started at 9 as we headed up north to Nairn, accompanying us all the way with some really heavy squalls from a low hanging cloud base, clearing up by late afternoon. Beautiful frosty morning in Nairn today at first with 0˚, then fog rolling in off the Moray Firth for a time before brightening up again. Sunshine all the way home with towering cumulus clouds over the N Sea, max temp 4˚, clear moonlit evening, -1˚ at 9pm, feels like it’s going to be the coldest night so far this winter.
On 13 Nov 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
DAVID(Yorkshire) I agree a mild December is quite likely, with even the end of November being quite warm.
On 13 Nov 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
I'm going for a mild wet December for the UK. Can't remember any cold Novembers, being followed by a cold December. Plus we have had no gales or storms as such in autumn, so once the solar output upticks a bit, I believe December could feel more like a typical October! With a more standard jet pattern. Don't have much time at the min, to study anything in great detail though.
On 13 Nov 2019, M. Lewis wrote:
It seems that Lorna Doone is already cooling her self in the USA at present, with daily records been set in states including Kansas and Illinois. Forecasters say hundreds of records could be matched or broken this week. Four traffic deaths have been linked to the bad weather and more than 1,000 flights have been cancelled. Schools have also been closed in some areas. The National Weather Service said the air mass was continuing to spread from the Plains towards the East Coast and Atlantic.
Bring on December 12 in the UK. Ho! ho! ho!
On 13 Nov 2019, M. Lewis wrote:
Yesterday the Prime Minister held a COBRA meeting to address the severe wet weather and floods in Derbyshire, Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire and Lincolnshire. It was perverse that he did not invite Piers to attend. Boris should remember he wrote an article a few years ago in The Telegraph praising Piers and stating that he was the man who beat the Met Office at their own game!
On 12 Nov 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
Wonder where East View or Out East is these days and what he thinks of the current air masses and weather over western Russia and east-central Europe.
On 12 Nov 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Widespread snow forecast between now and Sunday down to 1000m (sometimes a bit above, sometimes below) across swathes of southern/eastern Switzerland, central and eastern Italy and southern Austria right through to Kaernten. Particularly heavy on the south side of the range (well over a metre forecasted) courtesy of a 'Sudstau' i.e. a blocking pattern bringing precipitation from the Med, not the Arctic. The complete opposite pattern to the major event in January 2019, a Nordstau which brought three metres of snow to the northern Alps of Austria and Germany.
I have seen years when snow came like this in mid November only to be washed away by rain in early December (1985 comes to mind) so all this is is an early season snowfall event.
And the major French alpine regions will get relatively little compared to further east.
On 11 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, cloudy and dripping wet from overnight rain, winds mostly SW’ly, a few glimpses of the sun, max temp 6˚, dry afternoon, some more showers in the evening but also clear parts of sky with bright moonlight, 3˚ at 9.30pm.
On 11 Nov 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
Mega-oops, GFS now predicting a very mild end to the month with warm southerlies. Piers doesn't have the luxury of such a volte face.
On 11 Nov 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
Snow line just above us, but calm and not too raw because of it. Aye Steve Devine, GFS has been uncannily correct this month and no sign of the 'Spanish Plume' of the last few early winter period. Luckily never had such a good wood store laid in for years.
On 11 Nov 2019, Steve Devine wrote:
I've done some further analysis and here's some more food for thought. Temperatures from April - November during 2010 and 2019 are showing a very strong correlation. Between April - November, 6 out of 8 of these months have a temperature difference of less than 1.5c. April 2010 (vs April 2019), the May months, July, September and November (so far of course) were all less than 1c apart. And now the enhanced GFS is forecasting a cold second half to November...
On 11 Nov 2019, Steve Devine wrote:
I know we're barely 1/3 through the month but as it stands, daytime temperatures are averaging 8.7c in my corner of Essex. That's the lowest November average since 2010...and we all know what happened next. Just saying...
On 11 Nov 2019, Richard Bruce wrote:
So far for Autumn (Sept-Nov) in Nidderdale which is near Harrogate in North Yorkshire, we have had 407mm of rain which includes up to 10th November. The monthly rainfall has been Sept 152mm, Oct 203mm and Nov to date 52mm. I think only Oct 2000 was wetter but this Autumn period as a whole may exceed that and be a record amount. When I say records, we are of course talking about a relatively short period say from the late 1880's when rainfall was accurately measured so in meteorological terms it is only a small span of time.
On 10 Nov 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
It's been raw to work out in filling back up trenches sodden heavy mud that I'm surprised went back as well as it did, cold causing chapped lips and wind burnt face cold feet and hands, ahhh :)) Rain showers to start and end yesterday dry during daylight hours some nice sunny spells yesterday but cold. Frost this morning nice fog across the fields out early to move some more of the 24 ton of stone, lots of hot coffee gave up at 4.30pm for the great indoors. Rain came soon after and blustery wind tonight, met talking sleet n wet snow midweek on. Still say its feeling similar like how 2010 started lots of rain then progressively colder and fog....Paddy its def overrated I'm giving up and going back in the kitchen tomorrow its warmer :-)
On 10 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
0˚C at 7.30 but thawing quite quickly, light winds from a generally N’ly direction, cloudy with sunny periods, no precipitation, max temp 3˚ and staying that way till evening.
On 10 Nov 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Fred - Thanks for the reply. Extra precipitation is an understatement. Does look like we will be stuck,in a cold wet pattern overall.
On 10 Nov 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Another 20mm of rain yesterday in NW London means we have had our average November rainfall of just under 65mm in the first nine days of the month. Autumn (275mm and counting) is now closing in on 150% of average rainfall (195mm) with 21 days still to go.
On 09 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
Yesterday it was 0˚C at 7.30 and we had the first snow shower an hour later, lasted about 3 minutes; this morning -2˚C at 7.30, everything white with frost but then it all thawed rather quickly and we had some light rain by 11, light winds from N - NE, a few bits of sunshine and a max temp of 4˚, down to 0˚ by 9pm.
On 09 Nov 2019, Fred wrote:
David
We are in R3 period since 6th and Piers states expect extra precip. So to an extent he predicted it would be heavier than standard several days out. Big period from 13th onwards....trouble coming.
Piers, thank you very much for resolving my issue...and November is looking very good....which means Get December......A Must for readiness
On 09 Nov 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
definitely been a winter month up here so far and if GFS continues to be unusually correct then much of the remainder of the month promises to be too. Nothing exceptional, but quite different from the recent run of mild Novembers. Another glorious blue sky and snow on the hills kind of day.
On 09 Nov 2019, Bill S (NE Wales) wrote:
Frosty start, light drizzle turned to wet snow heavy for a while, before returning to rain. Only 2c at mid day,
On 08 Nov 2019, David (Yorkshire) wrote:
Had this biblical rain been predicted by piers? Just wondered
On 08 Nov 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
First proper frost of the winter last night in NW London, my rainfall measuring jug had a solid layer of ice on top of the 40mm rainfall already collected this month.
Snowfall down to Loch Morlich near Aviemore and down to 600m at Glencoe ski area.
All pretty normal stuff.
On 07 Nov 2019, DaveT wrote:
Stupendous amounts of rain here in Sheffield today. Stagecoach took all their buses off the road at about 6pm. Dashed inconvenient! I've ridden my Harley through rain and floods worse than this in France, but here ... we just can't cope!
On 07 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, cloudy with a strong NE’ly wind that kept blowing all day, we got a bit of patchy sunshine though from midday onwards, max temp 7˚, mostly dry bar a lengthy shower in the evening, moon and stars visible among the floating clouds, quite magical actually, 3˚ at 9pm. == Maria, man jobs are overrated? Mortally offended, Tunbridge Wells :-)
On 07 Nov 2019, Danny Newton wrote:
I am still trying to figure out the mechanism that connects the jet stream to solar winds. If you idealize the jet stream as a torus with a flexible average radius, it might interact electrically with the solar wind drawn down at the poles via the magnetic field. The moving air in the torus would have to have charged particles in it or atoms with a net positive or negative charge. Ice could carry a charge. This would go against the theory that the location of the jet stream is decided by air rising and falling from below it. Has anyone ever considered this connection between solar wind and the jet streams?
On 07 Nov 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
https://www.tt.com/panorama/wetter/16240908/jetzt-wird-s-winterlich-schnee-bis-in-die-taeler-warnung-fuer-suedtirol
First snow event down to the Austrian valleys to occur tomorrow, November 8th. Snow down to 700-1000m and a further 50cm across most mountain ranges of Tirol at 2000m.
Not likely to stay long in the valleys: weekend maxima of 8C predicted so freeze-thaw conditions will likely see valley snow gone in 3 or 4 days.
Pretty standard progression towards winter.
On 06 Nov 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Well I guessed we were due a tremendously wet season or 2 as until this year we had seemed to escape with just rain and stormy spells not tremendous amounts of Ireland type rain :-) The ground is soggy, ours even more so as we had digger works planned for our yard in the summer & Tuesday work commenced, it was a dry day :) Today when I came to do my part of getting into a trench or 2 to put in some pipework it was raining again, great fun had though as I uncovered existing pipes with shovels and a trowel, very nearly resorted to a soup spoon!-) I emerged completely covered in mud soaked and happy I succeeded despite the weather and thankful for the dry intervals,
man jobs are overrated 😅 temp dropped early 5 deg real feel 1 at 10pm
On 06 Nov 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
looking interesting on Saturday as an Atlantic front bumps into cold air in central Scotland and southern Highlands
On 06 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
3˚C at 7.30, cloudy with a cold & damp N’ly breeze, cloudy all day with a few showers, max temp 5˚, wind turning into the S by evening, typical November weather, 4˚ at 9pm.
On 06 Nov 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
road gritters out 10 miles north of Blair Atholl this morning after snow on the A9.
On 06 Nov 2019, Richard Bruce wrote:
2.8C at 9.00am this morning in North Yorkshire. A very noticeable cold feel in the air more like January and the wind in the north.
On 06 Nov 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
ISTVAN: you can never be sure of GFS, but this time the area and duration of the PM airmass is such that the usual slippage eastwards will be difficult to avoid. The Norwegian MO is also showing a similar outcome. Since this will be coming in from the north and west, then it is unlikely to be so marked in your area.
On 05 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, feeling colder in the light N’ly breeze, some nice sunshine morning and afternoon, max temp 7˚, light winds, clear evening with some cloud, bright moon & stars visible, 2˚ at 9pm, frost likely.
On 05 Nov 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Rutgers Global Snow Lab just published the Northern Hemisphere snow extent for October: it ranked 5th highest of 52 data points since measurements began.
First significant snow event of the Alpine winter now occurring, particularly in France, Western Italy, southern Switzerland and Western Austria. Most mid latitude measuring stations in Switzerland were at record lows on 3rd November, now many are approaching or passing average depths for this date. Snowfall down to 1500-1800m, pretty average for early November.
On 05 Nov 2019, Istvan ilyes wrote:
Hi Ron.
You seem to be sure about GFS this time. Down here in West Sussex, it's been very mild. In fact Autumn has is running late.
Very wet. And very wet. Give us southern,s some Scotsh cheer. Hopi g for a freezing winter.
On 05 Nov 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
Strangely, GFS is going fr quite a sustained period of PM air over the British Isles, especially in Scotland. Glorious late autumn/early winter weather today.
On 04 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, another day of rain with a strong NE’ly wind, max temp 9˚, down to 7˚ by 9.30pm, river Dee pretty high, leaves coming off trees big time now.
On 04 Nov 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
Norway had had its coldest October for 10 years and some parts of Sweden have been down to -25C. GFS suggests that some of that colder air will filter in to us over the next few days.
On 04 Nov 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
October rainfall for NW London 125mm, a princely 73% above average. 25mm of rain in first three days of November.
At just over 2/3 of the way through Autumn, rainfall has been 235mm, already 25% above the autumnal average.
Leaf fall has started in earnest the past seven days, aided by strong winds on Saturday.
On 04 Nov 2019, Fred wrote:
Subscriber. Piers where’s my Nov forecast disappeared to? When is the 30 day out? It’s the 4th. Models are showing colder and colder weather....get the 30 day out
On 03 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
9˚C at 7.30, strong E’ly wind, overcast with drizzle, there was quite a lot of rain overnight and more during the day, light but constant, max temp 11˚ and by evening the clouds opened up a little so that stars were visible, still 10˚ at 9pm. Three days of rain now and more coming tomorrow.
On 03 Nov 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
Rain since last post off n on then continuous rain today 2nd Nov.
Roads have a lot of laying water, rain heavy all evening still raining now 8 deg with a real feel of 4 at 12.14 a.m
On 02 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
11˚C at 7.30, continuous rain in a SE’ly breeze, occasionally heavy, going all morning until about 2pm, very foggy until the rain stopped, then clearing up and giving us a max temp of 12˚, clouds thinning a little by evening, a few stars peeking through, 8˚ at 9.30pm. == Craig, excellent interview of Piers, I’m about half-way through it, what he says about ER is confirmed by many other searchers for truth, that’s one of the reasons I support him.
On 02 Nov 2019, Ron Greer wrote:
GFS certainly going for quite a cool spell from Guy Fawkes night and well into the month. Looking favourable for early ski-ing in Scotland. Reminds me a bit of Nov 1985
On 02 Nov 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Gerry
A lot of records are expected every single year both hot and cold, wet and dry. It comes with the territory of thousands of measuring stations.
SLF (Swiss avalanche service) reports October 2019 to have been the fifth warmest since records began in 1864 in their monthly review issued 01/11/2019, along with being pretty wet as well. This means mountains over 3000m have a good snow cover, but lower down is totally green. It is the same in Austria, Italy and France. Snow to somewhat lower levels are predicted this week, in line with seasonal norms. Europe shows no manifestations of deep solar minimum.
NW London max min the past 24hrs: 16.8C/10.6C.
US Midwest is not the whole world....
38 years ago, Austria experienced a very long and hard winter, with valley level snow of 1 metre arriving at the end of October. 37.2 years is two solar/lunar cycles of 18.6 years.
Did Siberia have an unusually hard winter somewhere between 2000 and 2002? How about the US?
On 01 Nov 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
8˚C at 7.30, mostly light rain all day with a SE’ly breeze, temp rising to 10˚ and still that at 9.30pm, typical November weather, what else is there to say? ==Welcome Danny Newton, good to have a voice from the US. Somewhere near Bloomington, Indiana if my map reading is correct?
On 01 Nov 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Really interesting video of Piers being interviewed by the infamous Carl Benjamin (aka Sargon of Akkad) discussing Extinction Rebellion the Labour Party and his brother. ===
https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2019/11/01/watch-sargon-of-akkad-interview-piers-corbyn-wealth-redistribution-through-climate-activism/ === don't forget if you're discussing politics there's a dedicated thread for that === http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=842&c=5 === first frost was Sunday night and has been cool since but very mild atm with temps and dew points around 14C as the rain heads in
On 01 Nov 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
Fred - noticed this on spaceweather.com ===
This development does not mean Solar Minimum is finished. On the contrary, low solar activity will probably continue for at least another year as Solar Cycle 24 decays and Solar Cycle 25 slowly sputters to life. If forecasters are correct, Solar Cycle 25 sunspots will eventually dominate the solar disk, bringing a new Solar Maximum as early as 2023. === sounds as if this is based on the behaviour of SC24's slow start
On 01 Nov 2019, Fred wrote:
New Cycle 25 sunspot has appeared. Piers does indicate that this year is the bottom of the last cycle? If so then this minima isn’t as deep as the last. Can you give any update?
On 31 Oct 2019, Danny Newton wrote:
Unusual early winter temps here in my part of the USA(38.164 N, 85.750 W, ELEV 1100 feet MSL) Winter snow and ice mixed wth rain seen today. I have lived here over 50 years and the weather is more typical of the second or third week week of December or 500 miles north of here. Cattle farmers report having to feed their cattle early this year because of the impact of cold weather on grass.
On 31 Oct 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
7˚C at 7.30, cloudy with a fresh SW’ly wind that blew all day, a few hours of intermittent sunshine, max temp 9˚, completely overcast afternoon, ditto the evening, 7˚ by 8.30pm. For the last day of October we still have quite a lot of leaves on the trees, only few of them are bare so far. As for Piers’ October forecast, the cold didn’t materialise as expected with us here, it was only on the 25th that we had the first real frost and whiff of winter. It would be interesting to hear Piers’ comments on this.
On 31 Oct 2019, Gerry 45d Surrey-Kent border 164ft wrote:
Record cold temperatures being set in western parts of the USA and even record snowfall contrary to what Rhys says. What a weekend of contrast. Very strong SW winds bringing warmth on Saturday then followed by NW winds and cold air. Camping at Lydden Hill the rain arrived as the last 5 races took place and then teemed down until after 10pm. At first I was warm in warm PJs but summer sleeping bag. By the early morning I was cold and resorted to an extra fleece wishing I had my winter bag. But after a bit of cloud cleared we had a lovely if chilly day of racing to end the season. Finally succumbed and put the CH on Monday evening as the thermostat was showing 3.5 deg below the set point. Then come Tues it warmed up a bit. I think thousands may well have to die to bring the global warming scam to an end but hopefully the perpetrators will face an international court for their lies.
On 31 Oct 2019, M Lewis wrote:
Jeremy Corbyn (Piers' brother) today said the Prime Minister had thought he was being "smart" in calling for an election in December, and thought that Labour supporters "won't go out to vote".
He added: "Even if the rivers freeze over, we're going out to bring about real change for the many, not the few." It's Game On for a Lorna Doone winter!
On 30 Oct 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
1˚C at 7.30, damp from overnight rain, no frost, variable breeze from NW - NE - SW, sunny morning with a max temp of 8˚, drizzly afternoon, clearer evening, 4˚ at 10pm.
On 30 Oct 2019, Danny Newton wrote:
Is there any indication that the temperature of the earth is a function of the wind speeds in the jet stream? I have heard of attempts to measure high altitude winds via the telescope at Aricibo, Puerto Rico. The idea was to energize the air with electro magnetic radiation and recover the signal of the molecules flipping back to their normal orientation after the energy was removed. It seems logical to conclude that wind events could become elevated with elevated temperature but they only seem to worry about this impacting hurricanes or maybe tornadoes. What about increased vertical speeds of winds as they rise to the stratosphere?
On 29 Oct 2019, Maria (Ireland) wrote:
The last few mornings have been frosty, this mornings frost more patchy & much quicker to clear, some good sunshine but cold with an e'ly breeze. The last sunflowers finished off by the frost, just taking the heads off to keep the seeds for the birds, starting to put up a few different types of bird boxes around the place that the kids researched & made in their summer hols. Managed to mulch the leaves on the grass with the mower on Sun. to help feed the lawn. Frost is great for the garden following the clean up, at the moment the colder weather is refreshing and has been a welcome break from the rain. Can not believe the size and length of the parsnips this year and they taste amazing.
On 29 Oct 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, frosty in parts and bright with a light N’ly breeze, somewhat cloudy but sunny morning with a max temp of 8˚, light showers in the afternoon with a bit more cloud and with the stars peeking through them in the evening, 4˚ at 9pm.
On 29 Oct 2019, Andy B 45D wrote:
I am getting fed up of trying to get the message over to warmists, and have come to the conclusion that we need this Lorna Doone winter or a 63 one with some big power cuts and massive food shortages to concentrate the minds of these brainwashed fools
On 29 Oct 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Forecast for northern and Eastern Swiss Alps today of snow down to 1500-2000m, about normal for late October.
Colder deviations in the Eastern US Rockies.
Northern hemisphere snow cover remains above average, notably in Canada.
On 28 Oct 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
2˚C at 7.30, light frost in a NW’ly wind which was less strong than yesterday, sunny for most of the day with a max temp of 8˚, some light showers in the afternoon, clear starry sky at night with 3˚ at 9pm.
On 27 Oct 2019, Paddy, Aberdeen South, sub, 130m elevation wrote:
6˚C at 7.30, sunny with a stiff NW’ly wind that blew all day, max temp 10˚, a few showers in the afternoon followed by a clear evening, 4˚ at 9.30pm.
On 25 Oct 2019, Mark Hall wrote:
Really humane riposte Rhys and great info Craig. In actuarial terms cold weather extremes kill 20 times more than warm weather extremes.
In the depths of the LIA mortality rates in the Baltic region touched 30%. We'll go there again, but not for a several hundred years.
Lorna Doone country is very precipitous, my girlfriend wrecked her car engine on a steep incline some years ago. So you can imagine those snowy crevices described by Blackmore that lead to another world.
On 25 Oct 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
.... Following the 'record-breaking' severe winter (see above), the early part of spring 1684 (March & much of April) continued the cold theme; in the CET record, March 1684 had an 'all-series' anomaly of around -3C, followed by April with -1.5C (remember the monthly values are only to nearest half-degree C). Many reports at the time speak of a 'backward' spring, which is hardly surprising! ===
https://www.webarchive.org.uk/wayback/en/archive/20130428154955/http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1650_1699.htm === this was followed by a drought with heat suggestive of quite a stuck pattern /omega block + meridional jetstream. The impacts would not be as bad today due to technology and even what was learnt following the 2009-2010 winters + General improvements to heating + insulation of homes, however energy prices continue to rise and the elderly + young children would be at much greater risk. It would not be good
On 25 Oct 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
... See also 1739/40; 1813/14 and 1962/63.
(Technically, this winter was the coldest in the CET series, but series here is noted to the nearest 0.5degC only). Using the CET series, both January (-3.0) & February (-1.0) has sub-zero mean temperatures, only one of four instances of successive 'sub-zero' months in that series (see also 1740, 1878/79 & 1963). This was the winter that was described so vividly by R.D. Blackmore in his novel: "Lorna Doone".
First half of February: based on reconstructed records: CET averaged (minus) 6.6 degC: the coldest 15 day period of the entire 336 year record (up to 1995, and almost certainly beyond that). However, from roughly the second-week of February, a fitful thaw set in.
On 18th Feb. 1684, rain / thaw after 8 weeks with Thames frozen: ships could reach Port of London by 20th/22nd....
On 25 Oct 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
...Sea ice was reported along the coasts of SE England and many harbours could not be used due to ice: according to some sources, ice formed for a time between Dover & Calais, with the two sides ' joined together '! Severe problems for shipping accessing such ports on either side of the North Sea. Near Manchester, the ground was frozen to a depth of 27 inches and in Somerset to more than 4 feet. The winter was 'incredibly severe' according to John Evelyn and a Frost Fair was held on the ice. "No vessels could stir out or come in while a thick fog occurred towards the end of January which made it difficult to see across the streets". (This latter due to warm advection no doubt, as a thaw set in over snow/ice covered surfaces).
HH Lamb has constructed a tentative mean seasonal pressure pattern with High pressure in the Faeroes area, an arctic northerly from Spitzbergen to the Baltic, thence an anticyclonic east or northeasterly over NW Europe / British Isles....
On 25 Oct 2019, @CraigM350, Sub Berks 51N wrote:
The Lorna Doone winter (via Booty) : 1683/84 (Winter & early Spring)
One of the four or five coldest winters over the British Isles (& large parts of Europe), and the coldest in the CET record. (LW/Manley -'Weather', but note that the CET record to the nearest 0.5degC at this time).
The 15th December 1683 saw the onset of a great frost in England & central Europe: Thames frozen down to London Bridge by 2nd January 1684, with booths on the ice by 27th January and for more than a fortnight thereafter - coaches were observed on the ice and the royal court (King Charles II) visited the fair held on the frozen Thames. Other rivers across Britain were so affected, e.g., the Tees in NE England - they didn't get the attention of the Thames! Many birds perished. This great frost was claimed to be the longest on record; the Thames in London was completely frozen for about two months and the ice was reported to be 11 inches (circa 28 cm) thick....
On 25 Oct 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
M Lewis: a Lorna Doone winter would undoubtedly kill tens of thousands in the UK alone, quite possibly up to 500,000. Having scores to settle with pathetic politicians, ER numbskulls and BBC drones does not justify willing the poorest, the youngest and oldest to meet a freezing death.
It is all very well for the well-to-do to hope for conditions their wealth will enable them to survive, but actively hoping for blameless citizens to die of cold is hardly worthy of the term humanity, is it?
As we will face US sanctions if we imported Russian expertise on managing cold (and they have survived more harsh winters than we ever will have to), better to hope for stasis, plan to keep warm and consider how we would feel if our lives were sacrificed under that ghastly slogan 'acceptable collateral damage', eh?
On 25 Oct 2019, M Lewis wrote:
There is a New Moon on Monday. Expect the UK weather to drastically change come this weekend. Expect cold frosty nights. Now the METEOGROUP (BBC) and Met Office (ITV, Channel 4, Channel 5) are still avoiding the onset of this coming Winter as it doesn't fit their Global Warming Agenda and Dogma.
Wouldn't it be good and just swell if it snows on December 12th. Bring on a Lorna Doone winter I say! If enough of us wish for it, it will happen.
On 25 Oct 2019, Rhys Jaggar wrote:
Snow on the Scottish highlands down to 500-600m (see www.winterhighland.info for images), pretty standard fare in late October. Just a few centimetres at the moment, nothing major.
Snow on higher mountains in ski areas in california and Washington states, but again, nothing to write home about, just average late October.
A lot of noise about snow in Colorado but it is only a foot or so. Nothing earth shattering for late October, just does not happen every year.
In Europe, snow has fallen mainly above 2500-3000m, which is par for the course late October. There has been record warmth in central Europe recently, now things will start turning cooler.
All in all normality appears to exist in the data, which may not please ER or Ice Age scaremongers.
On 25 Oct 2019, Fred wrote:
Agreed, the metO did their usual trying to ‘keep London dry’. The rain they forecast was way to W NW, reality SE got bucketed on. You see in AGW weather London is dry and ever warmer with LP systems shifted to NW U.K. The truth is LP systems are on a much more southerly ‘general’ track. Expect another good deluge this weekend in the SE with yet another very southerly tracking trough.
On 24 Oct 2019, Gerry 45d 164ft Surrey-Kent border wrote:
The constant changing of the MetO forecasts covers up their poor forecasting ability. Piers is to be respected for not playing the same game. If there has been a deviation from the forecast I think it would be helpful to have an explanation of what happened - or didn't. With all the rain we have had a local farmer was telling me how he can't get his winter wheat crop planted. If he is forced to delay until spring he will have to factor in a reduction in germination of the seed and use more per sq yard. In some US states they are looking at total wipeout. Late planting has been followed by snow at harvest time. I was surprised at how well our football pitch is looking. The grass is a bit long but seems the drainage work done at the end of last season is working. Some moles have even had a dig along one touchline whereas they normally drown!! November looks like an interesting month!
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